Just voted in Cheltenham. chatting to the bloke on the desk he said turnout was usually 20% of people eligible to vote, 1 hour to go and 66% of voters had voted and they were still coming in.
I live in the bluest of the blue wards in Cheltenham, the yellow peril infest the cheap seats the other side of town.
I suspect they mean in a local election. 20% turnout in a GE would be exceptionally low.
For anyone watching bbc coverage..be warned of Laura Kuennsburg (minister for Tory state propaganda)
In the 2017 election her ‘Tory sources’ and ‘Labour sources’ told her the following - Theresa mays position is untenable. - Hearing Labour have gained Broxtowe ( not true) - Hearing Labour have gained Hastings and Rye (not true) - Hearing Labour have gained Milton Keynes North. (Not true) - Hearing Tories have won Barrow - Hearing Tories have won Wrexham The only one she did get right was hearing Labour have won Ipswich.
Okay. So the word now is that the mega Stockton turnout is Labour. And that's not according to Labour sources...
Doesnt Durham Uni have a campus there?
Yes.
But I think (from memory) it's the business campus; they have a different perspective from other student groups. Although I suspect they still like free stuff!
1. Looks like Tories have done well in Durham / NE (thinking Pidcock comments / early view Bishop Auckland is Tory, though Rochdale mentioned Stockton might be seeing Labour voters out; 2. If turnout high, I think it probably benefits the Tories as more likely to be a repeat of 2016 i.e. non-voters coming out. 3. London a bit odd. Talk Labour doing very well but some weird patterns. Johnson possibly in trouble but Labour pulling activists out of Chingford and asking for help in Battersea 4. Walsall South going to the Tories would suggest a whole swathe of Labour seats in the Midlands are gone; 5. We do not seem to have much from Wales, the NW and Yorkshire. Those could be key.
Wales could be a bit weird - maybe better for Labour in the south, bad in the north? But I can't see why the NW and Yorkshire should be materially different to the Midlands and NE?
In order to get sight of the exit poll before 10pm you have to sign an NDA. No NDA, no exit poll. If you have signed the NDA and see the exit poll, you cannot reveal anything before 10pm.
I know Bercow's annoying, but even he's not annoying enough to break that NDA (if he's even signed it).
Is there only one exit poll or several competing ones?
Normally exit polls cover the same constituencies, don't they? if so could they be in the wrong place this time?
Brendan Clarke Smith stakeboards outnumbering Keir Morrison's in Langold and Costhorpe 4 to 2, zero Keir Morrison (Wasn't one with the Tory literature) window posters up that I could see. 3 or 4 England/Union Jacks flying.
DISASTER. Just got to the cottage and the telly is down - probably the weather but no signal. No Sky in the Fire Stick so will miss Bercow looking glum.
Polling station anecdote. Just me and a bloke I kind of vaguely know in there, and the same polling and presiding officers there always are, one of whom I know professionally, although that was about six years ago. Me, like a complete dick: "Thank you for staying open just for us!" presiding officer, wearily "have you got your polling card" Etc. Anyway, went outside and there was a guy parking his range rover pretty much sideways across a one way street.
Important details from your man on the ground in North Cornwall (Con 1/3, LD 2/1)
Well, I suppose, tonight's the night, those of us who invested £3 all those years ago to ensure comrade Jezza won the Labour leadership, find out if we wasted our hard earned money.
DISASTER. Just got to the cottage and the telly is down - probably the weather but no signal. No Sky in the Fire Stick so will miss Bercow looking glum.
Polling station anecdote. Just me and a bloke I kind of vaguely know in there, and the same polling and presiding officers there always are, one of whom I know professionally, although that was about six years ago. Me, like a complete dick: "Thank you for staying open just for us!" presiding officer, wearily "have you got your polling card" Etc. Anyway, went outside and there was a guy parking his range rover pretty much sideways across a one way street.
Important details from your man on the ground in North Cornwall (Con 1/3, LD 2/1)
For anyone watching bbc coverage..be warned of Laura Kuennsburg (minister for Tory state propaganda)
In the 2017 election her ‘Tory sources’ and ‘Labour sources’ told her the following - Theresa mays position is untenable. - Hearing Labour have gained Broxtowe ( not true) - Hearing Labour have gained Hastings and Rye (not true) - Hearing Labour have gained Milton Keynes North. (Not true) - Hearing Tories have won Barrow - Hearing Tories have won Wrexham The only one she did get right was hearing Labour have won Ipswich.
Will hedge funds have exit polls or do they have as much knowledge as we do
They might have commissioned polls but there's no reason why their polls should be any more accurate than yesterday's public ones - in fact, probably less good, because it's hard to run a good exit poll.
Just voted in Cheltenham. chatting to the bloke on the desk he said turnout was usually 20% of people eligible to vote, 1 hour to go and 66% of voters had voted and they were still coming in.
I live in the bluest of the blue wards in Cheltenham, the yellow peril infest the cheap seats the other side of town.
If its the bluest of blue wards a normal turnout of 20% is not credible, even for local elections.
DISASTER. Just got to the cottage and the telly is down - probably the weather but no signal. No Sky in the Fire Stick so will miss Bercow looking glum.
Polling station anecdote. Just me and a bloke I kind of vaguely know in there, and the same polling and presiding officers there always are, one of whom I know professionally, although that was about six years ago. Me, like a complete dick: "Thank you for staying open just for us!" presiding officer, wearily "have you got your polling card" Etc. Anyway, went outside and there was a guy parking his range rover pretty much sideways across a one way street.
Important details from your man on the ground in North Cornwall (Con 1/3, LD 2/1)
Well, I suppose, tonight's the night, those of us who invested £3 all those years ago to ensure comrade Jezza won the Labour leadership, find out if we wasted our hard earned money.
Don't worry, Aaron Bastani says it's a 20 year project.
This is like deciding whether to stay up for Match of the Day. If Burnley have been hammered then no way do I wait for it but if they've done well yes of course you wait till midnight
Just voted in Cheltenham. chatting to the bloke on the desk he said turnout was usually 20% of people eligible to vote, 1 hour to go and 66% of voters had voted and they were still coming in.
I live in the bluest of the blue wards in Cheltenham, the yellow peril infest the cheap seats the other side of town.
If its the bluest of blue wards a normal turnout of 20% is not credible, even for local elections.
That is what he said. He also said that the total number of eligible voters was circa 900.
This is like deciding whether to stay up for Match of the Day. If Burnley have been hammered then no way do I wait for it but if they've done well yes of course you wait till midnight
Whatever happens tonight...Tories are going to get crushed in the next election.
Tories have nothing left message wise other than I’m not as bad as the other guy. 5 years of nothingness. Big tech and automation will continue to cut jobs and the uk has no answers. More jobs will move overseas. Larger companies will get stronger. Rural towns will become more rural. Factories will not need people but just be automated then it will be trucks then retail and so on and so on.
Tories arent focuses on the big issues. It’s just carry on as we are.
Labour needed to learn the lesson of 2010 and play defense now to stem their potential losses. We'll see where that has left them by tomorrow. Unless Labour can retake much of Scotland a Boris majority government will be favourite to still be the largest party in 2024.
But you're right that, if given a majority, the Conservatives need to do something positive and definable with power.
Well, I suppose, tonight's the night, those of us who invested £3 all those years ago to ensure comrade Jezza won the Labour leadership, find out if we wasted our hard earned money.
Don't worry, Aaron Bastani says it's a 20 year project.
What to undo the damage of a Jezza government? I think that's optimistic.
Just voted in Edinburgh SW, city central ward. Elderly guy 70ish staffing the polling station said this is the biggest turnout of any election he can remember
Right I’m calling it. The poll average is nearly ten. It’s something close to a landslide. Calling all Tories. Well done. Fine win, fought and won fair and square on right issues of health, education and improving the lot of the poorer in our society, hence you have won them over - they turned out to vote for you in droves; you deserve the chance to govern. But this isn’t the end of the hard work, just the start, isn’t it?
You now have some of the poorest most disadvantaged in our society placing their trust and hope in your promises and your Brexit, brexit to free us from the wasteful costs of being in EU, free that money to health, 40 more hospitals opening not more closures, a one nation Brexit not merely making Mogg, Baker and Tory donors much richer, and the UK’s long lost freedom bringing growth and hundreds of billions of inward investment to improve the lives of voters feeling forgotten and ignored for so long.
Not one of these voters expects marvels overnight, but once out the free market that allowed millions of foreigners to just walk in and stay, at last there will be control of immigration so public services will improve, there will be more homes for voters children and grandchildren.
And a new, exciting Prime Minister very different from the out of touch, untrustworthy and economically illiterate buffoon Corbyn would have been.
This is like deciding whether to stay up for Match of the Day. If Burnley have been hammered then no way do I wait for it but if they've done well yes of course you wait till midnight
Latest MRP is: Lab 59%, Con 20%, BRX 11%, LD 8%, Grn 3%. Turnout in 2017 was 67.00% Electorate this time is 57,845. If turnout rises to say 70%, total votes will be 40,492. Applying the MRP figures to that would give something like the following figures:
Just voted in Edinburgh SW, city central ward. Elderly guy 70ish staffing the polling station said this is the biggest turnout of any election he can remember
Worth noting the guy had Alzheimers and couldn't remember anything about previous elections.
There are two versions of the exit poll which are calculated. The first is based on information as it stands at 21 and second on information at the close of polling. The one we see is the 2100 version
Comments
In the 2017 election her ‘Tory sources’ and ‘Labour sources’ told her the following
- Theresa mays position is untenable.
- Hearing Labour have gained Broxtowe ( not true)
- Hearing Labour have gained Hastings and Rye (not true)
- Hearing Labour have gained Milton Keynes North. (Not true)
- Hearing Tories have won Barrow
- Hearing Tories have won Wrexham
The only one she did get right was hearing Labour have won Ipswich.
Normally exit polls cover the same constituencies, don't they? if so could they be in the wrong place this time?
Polling station anecdote. Just me and a bloke I kind of vaguely know in there, and the same polling and presiding officers there always are, one of whom I know professionally, although that was about six years ago.
Me, like a complete dick: "Thank you for staying open just for us!"
presiding officer, wearily "have you got your polling card"
Etc.
Anyway, went outside and there was a guy parking his range rover pretty much sideways across a one way street.
Important details from your man on the ground in North Cornwall (Con 1/3, LD 2/1)
https://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/elections/general-election-2019/lbc-to-simulcast-its-biggest-election-night-show/
Joe Twyman is doing the polling analysis.
I don't miss it.
Drutt - great post & I second the google 'sky news live' search which will land you on the youtube live stream.
Just seen 4 4x4's drive into the local polling station.......yep this is Tory country
(Except the people who are doing the exit poll.)
Are the exit poll boys steaming in?
But you're right that, if given a majority, the Conservatives need to do something positive and definable with power.
I've cheered me up.
Calling all Tories. Well done.
Fine win, fought and won fair and square on right issues of health, education and improving the lot of the poorer in our society, hence you have won them over - they turned out to vote for you in droves; you deserve the chance to govern. But this isn’t the end of the hard work, just the start, isn’t it?
You now have some of the poorest most disadvantaged in our society placing their trust and hope in your promises and your Brexit, brexit to free us from the wasteful costs of being in EU, free that money to health, 40 more hospitals opening not more closures, a one nation Brexit not merely making Mogg, Baker and Tory donors much richer, and the UK’s long lost freedom bringing growth and hundreds of billions of inward investment to improve the lives of voters feeling forgotten and ignored for so long.
Not one of these voters expects marvels overnight, but once out the free market that allowed millions of foreigners to just walk in and stay, at last there will be control of immigration so public services will improve, there will be more homes for voters children and grandchildren.
And a new, exciting Prime Minister very different from the out of touch, untrustworthy and economically illiterate buffoon Corbyn would have been.
Don’t let these people down, will you?
I’m off now. See you over the holidays.
Have a good night.
Latest MRP is: Lab 59%, Con 20%, BRX 11%, LD 8%, Grn 3%.
Turnout in 2017 was 67.00%
Electorate this time is 57,845.
If turnout rises to say 70%, total votes will be 40,492.
Applying the MRP figures to that would give something like the following figures:
Lab 23,890
Con 8,098
BRX 4,454
LD 3,239
Grn 1,215
I haven't altered my betting position (360/201/42/21/ others), at least not yet, but I have teeed up a reverse ferret if needed!