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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,897

    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Jesus.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,837

    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Looks like an Ice Warrior costume.

  • Yoda has the same tailor as @AlastairMeeks
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    I assume you got that suit in a sale
    Or a power cut?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282

    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Magnificent.
  • How can someone so young become so arrogant and smug? I am begining to believe in reincarnation; she must have been an angry old man in a previous life.
  • Yoda has the same tailor as @AlastairMeeks
    "There is no try" explains a lot in both cases.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Suddenly the £ isn't very happy

    I have decided that the driver behind these movements, to NOM and against Tory Maj, and a lower pound.... is simply the reports of higher turnout. It can't be anything else?!

    And that could just be a function of the season and the weather.
  • saddened said:

    Turnout, predictably, described as "brisk" when I voted about an hour ago in Harrogate. Ended up voting for the Yorkshire party, because I couldn't face spoiling my ballot, or voting for any of the usual clown shoes masquerading as serious politicians.

    What are the Yorkshire Party's policies ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY4tD2Hbg_A
  • You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Is that designed to minimise impact in a crash?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    How can someone so young become so arrogant and smug? I am begining to believe in reincarnation; she must have been an angry old man in a previous life.
    OK boomer.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Strong open on Wall St after Trump indicates China trade deal imminent.

    FTSE 100 and 250 are moving in tandem so not election related.

    Forex still doing nothing of note.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    It should be with you very shortly
    It's a fucking monsoon here
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    New species of acorn discovered in Essex.
  • Boris Johnson will be delighted, another rootless cosmopolitan migrant is denied the vote.

    https://twitter.com/amandinegarde/status/1205104516858875904?s=21

    I'm surprised Liverpool City Council are trying to delight Boris.

    And do you get a medal for becoming a British citizen?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,837

    How can someone so young become so arrogant and smug? I am begining to believe in reincarnation; she must have been an angry old man in a previous life.
    I saw a poster for a book she's written about inspiring women from Boudicca to Yvette Cooper.

    I think I got that right.
  • Theory: Tory Fibs is using the Corbyn MRP and it’s actually showing holds/wins in those seats. But they want to shore up the vote.
  • rpjs said:

    OK boomer.
    hoho. Just keep following the herd if it makes you feel better.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282

    Theory: Tory Fibs is using the Corbyn MRP and it’s actually showing holds/wins in those seats. But they want to shore up the vote.

    Or they are just making it up.
  • You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    One of the elves has escaped from Santa's sweatshop.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    She does have excellent handlers doesn't she.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    MM - I rather suspect that "larn 'em" is an East Midlands rather than a Geordie expression.
    There is a book titled "Larn Yersel' Geordie"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Can. Not. Unsee.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    How can someone so young become so arrogant and smug? I am begining to believe in reincarnation; she must have been an angry old man in a previous life.
    She is somewhere on the autistic scale. One of my cricket colleagues is similarly diagnosed. He has a successful career but a similar personality. Managing him when I was skipper was a nightmare.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    There is a book titled "Larn Yersel' Geordie"
    It was made into (or originated from - I am not sure which) a BBC radio series in the 70s. It was a cult listen when I was at university.
  • For the weak and wobbly....obviously not me....

    On the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%. In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%.
  • For the weak and wobbly....obviously not me....

    On the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%. In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%.

    How does that compare with 2015?
  • speedy2 said:

    Looking at all the turnout reports, turnout seems to be way up in London but not outside of London.

    Beyond the M25 there is silence.

    I'd love to see some shots of some of those youth-populated queues outside voting stations from very early this morning, which as dusk descends I suspect are now totally deserted. *** Tumbleweed ***
    It's amazing really what little value the younger generation places on their time. They're clearly not destined to become plumbers or electricians in their mature years.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    For the weak and wobbly....obviously not me....

    On the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%. In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%.

    So it's a hung parliament then.
  • alb1on said:

    She is somewhere on the autistic scale. One of my cricket colleagues is similarly diagnosed. He has a successful career but a similar personality. Managing him when I was skipper was a nightmare.
    What I don't get is why her parents are not protecting her from herself? She is clearly a vulnerable soul that has become a brand to be manipulated by cynical people. Like a female Scandanavian William Hague without the wit but with a better PR manager.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    What are the Yorkshire Party's policies ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY4tD2Hbg_A
    Free dog training for whippets, nationalisation of racing pigeon infrastructure abolishing the sale of soft southern lager. Then they get a bit silly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563

    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    That really is a proper Christmas jumper! Respect.
  • To add to the anecdotes:

    Voted at 3PM, took a brolly as it is raining here. Polling station as quiet as usual, no other voters. Turnout apparently up slightly but staff thought this was due to people wanting to vote before it gets dark and the weather turns a little nastier.

    This is in Amber Valley, a former bellwether that is now a safe Conservative seat. Not sure it tells us much other than people voting earlier than normal.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019

    For the weak and wobbly....obviously not me....

    On the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%. In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%.

    My rule of thumb is adding 7% to the leader of the opposition on the preffered PM figures from Mori.

    It worked really well last time, May was leading by 11, so it gave me a Conservative lead of 4.

    Now it says Boris leads by 14, so I think the Conservative lead is 7.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    saddened said:

    Free dog training for whippets, nationalisation of racing pigeon infrastructure abolishing the sale of soft southern lager. Then they get a bit silly.
    You think making 'The Church of the Latter Day Boycott' the established religion a bit silly?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    isam said:
    Last election Liverpool smashed it in was 1983 and 1987.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743
    £ -0.53%, somebody got people counting at polling stations?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    For the weak and wobbly....obviously not me....

    On the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%. In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%.

    The final Survation in 2017 had a 1% Tory lead, the final Survation now has an 11% Tory lead.

    In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament it now forecasts a Tory majority
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    saddened said:
    Steady on, she's a bit young for that sort of comment!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,837

    To add to the anecdotes:

    Voted at 3PM, took a brolly as it is raining here. Polling station as quiet as usual, no other voters. Turnout apparently up slightly but staff thought this was due to people wanting to vote before it gets dark and the weather turns a little nastier.

    This is in Amber Valley, a former bellwether that is now a safe Conservative seat. Not sure it tells us much other than people voting earlier than normal.

    I shouldn't worry. It probably just means all those people in queues are voting Labour.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769

    On reflection, this is quite a suit statement for election day. I’m not sure quite how well it will go down in a rural north Essex polling station:


    Alastair, you are a fine fellow and a credit to this site. But you look like a pencil. :)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    TudorRose said:

    Good question! I'd say Corbyn would stay in those circumstances, Boris would be quickly and quietly replaced by the Saj (or equivalent) and Jo - if the LibDems do well as posited in the earlier question - then she'll be around as well. If the LibDems are sub-20 I think Jo will be gone by about this time tomorrow.
    Agree that 20+ will see her safe. 15 will see her safe but with grumbling. 12 or fewer she'll be gone.

    Betfair currently has Ed Davey and Layla Moran on similar odds for next leader - not really worth the bet IMO. Everyone else a long way behind, presumably reflecting the fact that Chuka looks unlikely to get elected right now.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    saddened said:
    She certainly does. I always assumed she was a front for some eco organization but maybe it's just a revenue stream based on "brand Greta" they are interested in. Does anyone on here know what / who is behind her? Not just pushy parents presumably ...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,923

    I am going to whisper this... but has anyone here done any work today?

    No.
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited December 2019

    I'm surprised Liverpool City Council are trying to delight Boris.

    And do you get a medal for becoming a British citizen?
    Not the brightest lamp on the street.
    She won't be such a smart ar$$ next time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Pulpstar said:

    Last election Liverpool smashed it in was 1983 and 1987.
    OMG, that really is a bad omen! Tory landslide. Aghh!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,897
    HYUFD said:

    The final Survation in 2017 had a 1% Tory lead, the final Survation now has an 11% Tory lead.

    In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament it now forecasts a Tory majority
    You alright hun?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    £ -0.53%, somebody got people counting at polling stations?

    Turnout here in London is absolutely on fire! These are Labour voters not tory (ethnic minorities- could save Labour seats in the north/Midlands if repeated there)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BONG

    15:51 - sunset, London. One second later than tomorrow, which is the earliest sunset of the year.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    NOM is 3.35 Lab 35-40% is 3.65. NOM won't happen without the latter so thats where the value is.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    viewcode said:

    Alastair, you are a fine fellow and a credit to this site. But you look like a pencil. :)
    I've never heard it called that before!
  • £ -0.53%, somebody got people counting at polling stations?

    And the FTSE is up 1.13%. These are very normal daily moves.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    Pulpstar said:

    Last election Liverpool smashed it in was 1983 and 1987.
    Everton were champions in 1987.
  • Chris said:

    Outside "a circle with a radius of 250 metres from the main entrance of a polling station."
    The guy in the video was about 25 feet from the door and stopping people as they were going in.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    I'm surprised Liverpool City Council are trying to delight Boris.

    And do you get a medal for becoming a British citizen?
    Being born an Englishman is already winning first prize in the lottery of life, so maybe they give out silver medals for being second?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003

    OMG, that really is a bad omen! Tory landslide. Aghh!
    We'll have the prospect of Leeds United storming it in 5 to 10 years !
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    I am going to whisper this... but has anyone here done any work today?

    I just walked the dog.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    alb1on said:

    She is somewhere on the autistic scale. One of my cricket colleagues is similarly diagnosed. He has a successful career but a similar personality. Managing him when I was skipper was a nightmare.
    PC or not, the girls at my daughter's secondary school compete for the best Greta impressions, not complimentary.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    If nobody has tweeted back "OK Boomer" there is no justice... :)

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Xtrain said:

    I just walked the dog.
    In the rain!!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    Flies in December? Very odd.
    Had two in a meeting yesterday, it happens!
  • This is the optimist's guide to potential results:

    Tory landslide: Laugh at Corbyn
    Small Tory majority: Laugh at Bozo for being in the same position as TMay
    Hung parliament: Laugh at Boris fanbois
    Corbyn win: laugh insanely and kill oneself!
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743

    PC or not, the girls at my daughter's secondary school compete for the best Greta impressions, not complimentary.
    Girls can be cruel, especially 11-16
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    PC or not, the girls at my daughter's secondary school compete for the best Greta impressions, not complimentary.
    How dare they!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990

    There is a book titled "Larn Yersel' Geordie"
    I had three years in Durham.

    You're going to ask aren't you - "which wing?"
  • Byronic said:

    I have decided that the driver behind these movements, to NOM and against Tory Maj, and a lower pound.... is simply the reports of higher turnout. It can't be anything else?!

    And that could just be a function of the season and the weather.

    But may balance itself out if turnout drops this evening.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Gabs3 said:

    Being born an Englishman is already winning first prize in the lottery of life, so maybe they give out silver medals for being second?
    The Scots want to send it to VAR
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743

    And the FTSE is up 1.13%. These are very normal daily moves.
    What would be abnormal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003

    The guy in the video was about 25 feet from the door and stopping people as they were going in.
    250 metres would exclude loads of area - sounds a bit extreme.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    To add to the anecdotes:

    Voted at 3PM, took a brolly as it is raining here. Polling station as quiet as usual, no other voters. Turnout apparently up slightly but staff thought this was due to people wanting to vote before it gets dark and the weather turns a little nastier.

    This is in Amber Valley, a former bellwether that is now a safe Conservative seat. Not sure it tells us much other than people voting earlier than normal.

    Do we have any evidence turnout is up outside big cities and university towns?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    edited December 2019

    That really is a proper Christmas jumper! Respect.
    That's not a Christmas jumper - that's the top of somebody with super powers.

    Although, I'm not quite sure what powers Varicose Vein man would have....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    Just having a coffee pitsop knocking up for IDS and the landlord has given it on the house but charging Momentum full whack tonight.

    IDS' son was out with us, a charming criminal barrister
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Pulpstar said:

    We'll have the prospect of Leeds United storming it in 5 to 10 years !
    That will coincide with a three day week and the power cuts. Nah, Corbyn will be well gone after his third attempt...unless of course the lights go off because Boris' Brexit really is a shambles.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    Had two in a meeting yesterday, it happens!
    Had you forgotten to do them up?
  • ridaligo said:

    She certainly does. I always assumed she was a front for some eco organization but maybe it's just a revenue stream based on "brand Greta" they are interested in. Does anyone on here know what / who is behind her? Not just pushy parents presumably ...
    Maybe it is Baby Yoda
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited December 2019

    What would be abnormal?
    Well for example immediately after the vote to leave, the FTSE 100 index fell by 8% and £ lost 11% against the $.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    In the rain!!!!
    It's stopped.
    Beautiful sky now but quite cold and windy.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    viewcode said:

    If nobody has tweeted back "OK Boomer" there is no justice... :)

    Yeah, cos that's so hurtful. Only genuine snowflakes believe it has the slightest impact. Hurty words tend not to bother anyone over 30.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    This is the optimist's guide to potential results:

    Tory landslide: Laugh at Corbyn
    Small Tory majority: Laugh at Bozo for being in the same position as TMay
    Hung parliament: Laugh at Boris fanbois
    Corbyn win: laugh insanely and kill oneself!

    A small Tory majority is the same position as Cameron not May
  • HYUFD said:

    Just having a coffee pitsop knocking up for IDS and the landlord has given it on the house but charging Momentum full whack tonight.

    IDS' son was out with us, a charming criminal barrister

    How do you think it's going?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    HYUFD said:

    Just having a coffee pitsop knocking up for IDS and the landlord has given it on the house but charging Momentum full whack tonight.

    IDS' son was out with us, a charming criminal barrister

    What crime was he convicted of?
  • HYUFD said:

    Just having a coffee pitsop knocking up for IDS and the landlord has given it on the house but charging Momentum full whack tonight.

    IDS' son was out with us, a charming criminal barrister

    More proof that brains always come from the mother not the father
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Girls can be cruel, especially 11-16
    That is true, much worse than boys.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    SunnyJim said:

    A little bit of weakness in GBP vs USD/EUR but well within a normal days trading range.

    If the exit poll shows a HP there will an almighty plunge.

    Indeed. I assume if Con Maj then there will be a slight fall tomorrow (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) and then I'll trade out all that remains and I'll be done for the year.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    sporting index Con seats ticked up to 343 from 341
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    edited December 2019

    Jesus.
    I think mr meeks is great too, mostly, but I would not mistake him for Jesus
  • T-minus 6 hours

    BONG!!!!!
  • saddened said:

    Yeah, cos that's so hurtful. Only genuine snowflakes believe it has the slightest impact. Hurty words tend not to bother anyone over 30.
    There is plenty of evidence to the contrary

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282

    T-minus 6 hours

    BONG!!!!!

    Premature bong. Happens to the best of us.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    isam said:

    How dare they!
    How double dog dare they?
  • What crime was he convicted of?
    Admitting to being the spawn of the idiotic IDS is criminal enough
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990

    What would be abnormal?
    A sign on the door saying "Dear Mr McDonnell, There is no money left. Merry Christmas, The City."
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    Brom said:

    NOM is 3.35 Lab 35-40% is 3.65. NOM won't happen without the latter so thats where the value is.

    Worth remembering Betfair vote shares are UK, whilst almost all polls are GB.

    Lab 35% on Betfair is very close to 36% GB.

    I would have thought something like Con 41.5%, Lab 35.8% (GB) could give a Hung Parliament.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743

    Well for example immediately after the vote to leave, the FTSE 100 index fell by 8% and £ lost 11% against the $.
    Is it comparable? If turnout worries are influencing a small percentage of holders, would you expect a precipitous drop or a small decline over the next few hours?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    There is plenty of evidence to the contrary

    Perhaps it's just Yorkshire over 30's then.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    T-minus 6 hours

    BONG!!!!!

    6 hours post sunset - unusually long voting window for the Undead. Which should boost tory turnout immeasurably.
  • HYUFD said:

    A small Tory majority is the same position as Cameron not May
    Au contraire. A small majority for Bozo will be exactly the same as no other party will touch the lying bastard with a barge pole
  • I understand DWP state pension statements will be the only acceptable proof of identity from the 2024 election.
    Nah, Tory Party membership cards and bus passes too.
  • Is it comparable? If turnout worries are influencing a small percentage of holders, would you expect a precipitous drop or a small decline over the next few hours?
    I take it there is a lot of nervousness, but changes of < 1% happen every day. There are loads of bits of news that move the needle e.g. Trump has back on China Tariff stuff today.
This discussion has been closed.