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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go dark before 4pm

One voter says she was queuing for 35 minutes ? #GE2019 https://t.co/p8USmaBLyV

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958
    First like Labour (in Islington North)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    My office is above a polling station in Port Talbot. There is a steady stream of people in the pouring rain.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    I just voted. No queue, normal flow in and out. I learned nothing from it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ideal scenario for me would be very high turnout and a very high majority. Let the majority have a mandate and not bickering, though no doubt the losers will still complain and add non-voters to the opposition's tally afterwards.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    FPT
    Chris said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
    If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.

    An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    I voted in the good borough of Rushcliffe at 7.30 . Turnout brisker than normal at this hour I think.
    The ballot paper was interestingly handed to me unfolded which is different to last election.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    Mexicanpete said:

    My office is above a polling station in Port Talbot. There is a steady stream of people in the pouring rain.

    Didn't the BXP do well in the Council elections there ? Could be the first anecdote of some of the Boris Leavers turning out - depending on who's turned out, obviously.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,942
    Voters are scared of the dark? More likely scared of the weather forecast, perhaps.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    I think there'll be a high turnout in London and the South East, where Labour's commuter and youth offer will see their vote hold up well.

    Less so in the 'red wall'

    Anecdata from a morning spent with 4 ex miners, 2 ex nurses and an ex teacher. Old northerners are not voting Labour.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Markets getting more jiggy with a Cons OM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    There is another reason, not just the dark...It is Christmas Party season. Lots of people will have drinks / doos after work, so will be voting before work.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    I want to see a histogram of occurrences of the word brisk in PB comments over time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    I want to see a histogram of occurrences of the word brisk in PB comments over time.

    Steady on.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Ideal scenario for me would be very high turnout and a very high majority. Let the majority have a mandate and not bickering, though no doubt the losers will still complain and add non-voters to the opposition's tally afterwards.

    Why? Most of the time a candidate will win with less than 50% of the vote. So it's perfectly legitimate to say a candidate with 39% of the vote was rejected by 61% but still got elected.

    or are you arguing for a transferrable vote system.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    eek said:

    FPT

    Chris said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
    If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.

    An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
    If someone nominates a proxy vote and the person being proxied dies can the proxy vote still be cast ?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    I’m going to wait till it’s dark.
    I’m going to do it with the lights on.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    wooliedyed said:

    I just voted. No queue, normal flow in and out. I learned nothing from it.

    Post of the day so far.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    camel said:

    I think there'll be a high turnout in London and the South East, where Labour's commuter and youth offer will see their vote hold up well.

    Less so in the 'red wall'

    Anecdata from a morning spent with 4 ex miners, 2 ex nurses and an ex teacher. Old northerners are not voting Labour.

    The question is whether they're voting Conservative.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Wake up people!
    Labour are piling up votes in London and the south. The red wall still looks dire for them
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
    From the Independent:

    To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-explained-who-can-vote-whos-excluded-and-does-the-queen-get-to-have-her-say-10183009.html
    Is it rude to ask why Diane Abbott is allowed to be an MP if she's not allowed to register as an elector?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,682
    We need some reports from the Red Firewall seats. If the turnout is comprising old Jim with his stick and chequered cap hobbling through the rain then the Tories have a right to be concerned.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.

    I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.

    I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP, Yorkshire Party and LD.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited December 2019
    Am disappointed to see that Ian Lavery hasn't mentioned Churchill and Tonypandy.

    https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/120507750516361625
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Who wants to walk out to vote in the dark in weather like this? Surely this is simply people voting earlier than usual.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Profit taking on the Betfair/SportingIndex exchanges perhaps?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Stark_Dawning said:

    We need some reports from the Red Firewall seats. If the turnout is comprising old Jim with his stick and chequered cap hobbling through the rain then the Tories have a right to be concerned.

    Depends who he’s voting for, doesn’t it?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2019
    eek said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Ideal scenario for me would be very high turnout and a very high majority. Let the majority have a mandate and not bickering, though no doubt the losers will still complain and add non-voters to the opposition's tally afterwards.

    Why? Most of the time a candidate will win with less than 50% of the vote. So it's perfectly legitimate to say a candidate with 39% of the vote was rejected by 61% but still got elected.

    or are you arguing for a transferrable vote system.
    No I'm not. Its perfectly legitimate to refer to percentages of the vote.

    When people deflate the voting percentage to be percentage of adults that is disingenuous. If you don't vote, you've made your own choice and don't count towards the opposition. That's true regardless of voting system too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    I'll put this out there again on this new thread:

    My Very Efficient Tory Vote scenario. Lose votes where they can afford it in the south - but lose few if any seats. Zero swing in the south, 8% up north/Wales.

    My more expected Ultra-Efficient Tory Vote scenario is a 9% lead as per the polling. Zero % swing down south, 12% up north/Wales. If so, then the Tories will have to split to form an opposition.....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IanB2 said:

    Who wants to walk out to vote in the dark in weather like this? Surely this is simply people voting earlier than usual.

    Yes, I think that's likely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1205082249848393728?s=20
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Does the exit poll take postal votes into account?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    eek said:

    FPT

    Chris said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
    If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.

    An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
    I agree totally. This is a lesson of the Jim Crow laws in the US which were used to disenfranchise black voters.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Ideal scenario for me would be very high turnout and a very high majority. Let the majority have a mandate and not bickering, though no doubt the losers will still complain and add non-voters to the opposition's tally afterwards.

    Philip, was noticed you said it was the first time you had been asked for your polling numbers by a party teller, I think a couple of questions
    Have you voted there before?
    We’re there any other parties with tellers out.

    It’s a good indication that if a party has tellers and actually taking numbers and running them back to the committee room then they have an interest, if this is he first time party A has tellers then that could be significant. You have indicated rural Lancashire is it currently red or blue?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    So the betting is expecting this to be quite close. I wonder if I should have cashed out my buy of Con majority at 15? Too late now.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    NOM out to 4.3.

    Fifteen million matched on BF majority market.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    northern_monkey said:

    In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.

    I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.

    I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP, Yorkshire Party and LD.

    Loudspeaker cars used to be common in elections, usually speaking much too fast to hear what they were saying. Haven't heard any for decades.
    Not surprised Brexit party reviving them or that they get planes to tow banners, much easier than real electioneering.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    After my earlier fake news report - when I passed my polling station just as the doors were opening this morning two people were waiting outside.

    I'll be casting my ballot to (fail to) kick out Philip Davies on the way home this evening.

    This will be my third visit to the local church this year. Scary!

    Also, this will be the 8th parliamentary constituency in which I will have voted. Previously:

    Tynebridge (By-election and GE)
    Meriden
    Loughborough
    Ealing Southall (By-election)
    Ealing Central & Acton
    Bishop Auckland
    Leeds Central

    The two Ealing seats were as a result of boundary changes - I was living in the same flat.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    dodrade said:

    Does the exit poll take postal votes into account?

    Wait oh yes wait a minute Mr Postman Wait.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,253
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    We need some reports from the Red Firewall seats. If the turnout is comprising old Jim with his stick and chequered cap hobbling through the rain then the Tories have a right to be concerned.

    Depends who he’s voting for, doesn’t it?
    My polling station has a block of warden assisted flats round the corner !
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    dodrade said:

    Does the exit poll take postal votes into account?

    "What about postal votes?

    They are not included directly but the analysts do consider any evidence the changes among postal voters in the polls are different from those among in-person voters, Prof Fisher say"

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kinabalu said:

    So the betting is expecting this to be quite close. I wonder if I should have cashed out my buy of Con majority at 15? Too late now.

    Have you been looking at the exchanges? Tory majority now 1.33. That's not close in any real sense of the word.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,106
    Andy_JS said:

    This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.

    It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    logical_song said:

    northern_monkey said:

    In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.

    I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.

    I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP, Yorkshire Party and LD.

    Loudspeaker cars used to be common in elections, usually speaking much too fast to hear what they were saying. Haven't heard any for decades.
    Not surprised Brexit party reviving them or that they get planes to tow banners, much easier than real electioneering.
    Planes to tow banners in this weather would be asking for a repeat of what happened to Nigel Farage a few elections ago.
  • Fleet_of_WorldsFleet_of_Worlds Posts: 127
    Presiding Officer Mrs Fleet now reports voting as “steady” in Wantage constituency. And please can I take the washing out of the machine and put it in the tumble dryer? Her theory is people have voted early when it’s light.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.

    I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/BenBirchallUK/status/1205085750972301312

    Santa votes.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    I’d add that Thursday is the new Friday for going out (at least in London) It’s pre-Christmas alcoholism/party season
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Mysticrose said:

    Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.

    I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.

    Have you been asking them how they are voting?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Philip_Thompson said:

    RobD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
    From the Independent:

    To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-explained-who-can-vote-whos-excluded-and-does-the-queen-get-to-have-her-say-10183009.html
    Is it rude to ask why Diane Abbott is allowed to be an MP if she's not allowed to register as an elector?
    If you are not on the electoral register somewhere I don’t think you can be a candidate but I might be wrong.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    northern_monkey said:

    In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.

    This is how elections are done in Japan. Nothing door-to-door (I think it's banned as they may be handing over bribes), just vans driving around with loudspeakers.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/539768956521684992
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,682
    Andy_JS said:

    This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.

    If it's in the sense of Jezza getting 3 million more votes then that should make it interesting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    The experts receiving the exit poll data will already have a pretty good idea of how it's going by now. But there's very heavy security in and around that room. Even the director general of the BBC was refused access when he wanted to visit it last time.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Andy_JS said:

    This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.


    Except I don’t expect the winner to be the one with the fewer votes. Or at least I hope not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edmundintokyo said:

    northern_monkey said:

    In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.

    This is how elections are done in Japan. Nothing door-to-door (I think it's banned as they may be handing over bribes), just vans driving around with loudspeakers.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/539768956521684992
    One of those has 8 Ohms and 20 Watts!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2019
    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Ideal scenario for me would be very high turnout and a very high majority. Let the majority have a mandate and not bickering, though no doubt the losers will still complain and add non-voters to the opposition's tally afterwards.

    Philip, was noticed you said it was the first time you had been asked for your polling numbers by a party teller, I think a couple of questions
    Have you voted there before?
    We’re there any other parties with tellers out.

    It’s a good indication that if a party has tellers and actually taking numbers and running them back to the committee room then they have an interest, if this is he first time party A has tellers then that could be significant. You have indicated rural Lancashire is it currently red or blue?
    First time I've voted in this constituency, recently moved. I was 18 in 2001 making that my first election, this is my 6th General Election then and this is my 5th constituency I've voted in. I've never been to the same polling station twice for General Elections, only ever local ones. 2010 and 2015 were the only time I've been in the same constituency though different stations.

    Only a blue teller. Blue constituency. Lancashire but I wouldn't call my part of the constituency rural (not sure the boundaries, it probably includes rural areas). Bellwether constituency, was red 1997-2010.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Worth keeping tabs on this through the day - hit the "animated" button. UK rainfall - shows where it has hit for the past few hours, and from the animation, where and when it will and how severe it will be.

    https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    logical_song said:

    northern_monkey said:

    In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.

    I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.

    I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP, Yorkshire Party and LD.

    Loudspeaker cars used to be common in elections, usually speaking much too fast to hear what they were saying. Haven't heard any for decades.
    Not surprised Brexit party reviving them or that they get planes to tow banners, much easier than real electioneering.
    Yes, the last resort when you don't have the organisation or help to do any purposeful campaigning
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/BenBirchallUK/status/1205085750972301312

    Santa votes.

    Who is going to get a lump of coal in their stocking?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958
    SandyRentool said:

    After my earlier fake news report - when I passed my polling station just as the doors were opening this morning two people were waiting outside.

    I'll be casting my ballot to (fail to) kick out Philip Davies on the way home this evening.

    This will be my third visit to the local church this year. Scary!

    Also, this will be the 8th parliamentary constituency in which I will have voted. Previously:

    Tynebridge (By-election and GE)
    Meriden
    Loughborough
    Ealing Southall (By-election)
    Ealing Central & Acton
    Bishop Auckland
    Leeds Central

    The two Ealing seats were as a result of boundary changes - I was living in the same flat.

    Voting in my third GE and second constituency today. I helped to effect a change of party in Colchester 2015, but repeating the feat in Islington North might be a bit trickier.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    camel said:

    I think there'll be a high turnout in London and the South East, where Labour's commuter and youth offer will see their vote hold up well.

    Less so in the 'red wall'

    Anecdata from a morning spent with 4 ex miners, 2 ex nurses and an ex teacher. Old northerners are not voting Labour.

    It all depends on switching though. I have been surrounded by working class Tories my entire life. Just because people are nurses or miners, in tu or not, there’s no umbilical cord to labour.
    I really hate the anecdotal stuff on here. But my anecdote is travelling to football last Saturday, through Bristol east, through filton, Bristol ne and in Bristol west, counting the posters, very little libdem this time. Affluent areas in semi detached suburb was surprised how Many labour posters and the absence of Tory ones. But park up in middle of what was council estate in my youth and Conservative posters every where.
    It’s a brexit thing, Cummings and Boris have convinced the poorest people in our country brexit frees up a lot of money and makes their country and life much better.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    Bedford is not in the North
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    dodrade said:

    Does the exit poll take postal votes into account?

    No
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Mysticrose said:

    Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.

    I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.

    But Labour already holds 90% of the seats in the big cities, so it won't help them win many new constituencies.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    I'm at Birmingham New Street station which doesn't count as the north unless you live in Brighton.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,106
    Mysticrose said:

    Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.

    I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.

    How on earth do you know that other than London and Manchester and other cities are labour citadels

    And there is the problem, the metropolitan elite disregarding the ordinary folk
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1205093677988798464

    activists and not so cunning stunts.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    wooliedyed said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    Bedford is not in the North
    I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    I just gave you one: two people in a queue at 7 am!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/edfomeara/status/1205039623782699010?s=20

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Ideal scenario for me would be very high turnout and a very high majority. Let the majority have a mandate and not bickering, though no doubt the losers will still complain and add non-voters to the opposition's tally afterwards.

    Philip, was noticed you said it was the first time you had been asked for your polling numbers by a party teller, I think a couple of questions
    Have you voted there before?
    We’re there any other parties with tellers out.

    It’s a good indication that if a party has tellers and actually taking numbers and running them back to the committee room then they have an interest, if this is he first time party A has tellers then that could be significant. You have indicated rural Lancashire is it currently red or blue?
    That used to be the case - although telling is a declining activity. Labour in particular often campaigns nowadays just by calling on their voters, relying on the doorstep contact to confirm whether they have voted or not.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    I'm at Birmingham New Street station which doesn't count as the north unless you live in Brighton.
    I'm sorry but it is north of Watford Gap so it most definitely is in the North.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Mysticrose said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/edfomeara/status/1205039623782699010?s=20

    But where is that? a safe London seat? If you judged the referendum on queues it would be a remain landslide, and unlike the referendum FPTP won't help Labour in London.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    At the last election in 2017 those doing the exit poll said that it looked good for the Tories until later into the afternoon and evening when more data came in.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    wooliedyed said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    Bedford is not in the North
    I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
    Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise ;)
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Mysticrose said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/edfomeara/status/1205039623782699010?s=20

    That post is from 8am, during the quite normal for cities pre-work 'rush'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    KentRising said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/edfomeara/status/1205039623782699010?s=20

    That post is from 8am, during the quite normal for cities pre-work 'rush'.
    Suspect it is deserted now.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/BenBirchallUK/status/1205085750972301312

    Santa votes.

    Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    SandyRentool said:

    After my earlier fake news report - when I passed my polling station just as the doors were opening this morning two people were waiting outside.

    I'll be casting my ballot to (fail to) kick out Philip Davies on the way home this evening.

    This will be my third visit to the local church this year. Scary!

    Also, this will be the 8th parliamentary constituency in which I will have voted. Previously:

    Tynebridge (By-election and GE)
    Meriden
    Loughborough
    Ealing Southall (By-election)
    Ealing Central & Acton
    Bishop Auckland
    Leeds Central

    The two Ealing seats were as a result of boundary changes - I was living in the same flat.

    That's reviving an old PB polling day tradition!

    Sevenoaks
    Cambridge
    Hampstead & Highgate
    Hornsey & Wood Green
    Wanstead & Woodford
    Ilford North
    Leyton & Wanstead
    Isle of Wight
  • KeithJennerKeithJenner Posts: 99
    I agree totally with the header.

    I usually walk to the polling station in the evening. Today we went at about 8am. The polling station is only about 50 yards away, but still I'd rather get it done this morning than go out in the dark later.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Like I said large queues in London isn’t a bad sign if Labour end up taking London seats. If the Tories are 20 seats ahead, that’s down to 15 and you can see how with a sub par Scottish performance they quickly do down to NOM.

    I am very confident in my bet.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.

    I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.

    How on earth do you know that other than London and Manchester and other cities are labour citadels

    And there is the problem, the metropolitan elite disregarding the ordinary folk
    It has to be the said the urban, big city trend is towards Labour. So a high turnout in the cities will probably be disproportionately Labour.

    We need more anecdotes from places like Port Talbot, though, too, to begin to get any useful picture.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    wooliedyed said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    Bedford is not in the North
    I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
    Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise ;)
    I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/BenBirchallUK/status/1205085750972301312

    Santa votes.

    Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
    And you grow out of believing in him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.

    I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.

    Have you been asking them how they are voting?
    She reads their auras. Not called mystic for nothing.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Projecting about polling day demographics and queue sizes is one of PBs greatest obsessions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet

    I'm in the NW, bellwether constituency that's currently blue. Turnout seems to be high, I was canvassed by the blues candidate but not the reds. I only received blue leaflets through the door. I wasn't on the electoral register at the start of the campaign having only recently moved, not sure if that affects leafleting or canvassing, I wouldn't think so.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Cheshire, small town, steady seemed "normal" horrible weather.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    RobD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
    From the Independent:

    To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-explained-who-can-vote-whos-excluded-and-does-the-queen-get-to-have-her-say-10183009.html
    Is it rude to ask why Diane Abbott is allowed to be an MP if she's not allowed to register as an elector?
    If you are not on the electoral register somewhere I don’t think you can be a candidate but I might be wrong.
    Yes you have to be an eligible voter for the body to which you are standing for election
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Mysticrose said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.


    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    edited December 2019
    I've voted Coventry South (Suburbs); Bath (Small city); Sheffield Central (Very urban); NE Derbyshire (Small Town/Large village); Bassetlaw (Village)

    The longest queue and only time I've ever had to wait was Sheff Central in 2010. Queues are almost directly proportional to how populated or otherwise your area is.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,682
    Mysticrose said:

    Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.

    I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.

    This would be the Tories' nightmare scenario - that polling respondents in the Red Firewall who say they'll vote Tory are actually of the can't-be-arsed persuasion. It may all depend on whether Boris has generated genuine enthusiasm or is just that celeb bloke from HIGNFY who people are ephemerally keen on when pressed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/BenBirchallUK/status/1205085750972301312

    Santa votes.

    Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
    He could be Tory. He's very hard working, rewards effort and being "nice" while only giving coal to the "naughty".
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Chameleon said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.


    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
    It does matter though. If Labour gain 5 seats in London how can you say that’s good for the Tories?

    Of course if it’s a landslide it makes no difference but these seats being so tight means a lot. Every gain counts.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    Chameleon said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.


    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
    It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    I have a question...sure it has been asked before.

    Pollsters after postal votes have been sent out. Do they ask if you have already voted? If so, do they just put you down as a 10/10 vote?

    Was thinking last time the postal votes went out at peak Dementia Tax, this time at peak Boris bounce.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    NOM bouncy on Ladbrokes too. Was 3.5, then 3, then 3.5, now 3.75. Fair bit of movement in a small space of time.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    KentRising said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/edfomeara/status/1205039623782699010?s=20

    That post is from 8am, during the quite normal for cities pre-work 'rush'.
    If the polls are wrong again due to a youth quake it means they haven’t learnt lessons from last time? To be fair to pollsters, if youth register late and tell polling they are not certain to vote, hence those 10+ Tory leads vanishing, you can’t really blame the polling companies, what can they do.
    If though they are as lazy as the vox popping tv stations, only going to the derby and Joan and corner shops when younger people are in offices, then we can blame then pollsters for creating the weirdly Safetyfirst tory campaign.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I would pile on Guildford and Winchester as LD gains.
This discussion has been closed.