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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go

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  • https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205155839142768640

    If thats right, Boris is home and dry.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MikeL said:

    Brom said:

    NOM is 3.35 Lab 35-40% is 3.65. NOM won't happen without the latter so thats where the value is.

    Worth remembering Betfair vote shares are UK, whilst almost all polls are GB.

    Lab 35% on Betfair is very close to 36% GB.

    I would have thought something like Con 41.5%, Lab 35.8% (GB) could give a Hung Parliament.
    Yes if Cons disappoint on the downside that could happen.

    I'm going Con 43.6 Lab 36.4 and a majority in the 15-30 range
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Just been to my local polling station in Ystrad Mynach. I was the only person there.

    But a useless anecdote really because the GE won't be won or lost in Caerphilly.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Xtrain said:

    Xtrain said:

    I am going to whisper this... but has anyone here done any work today?

    I just walked the dog.
    In the rain!!!!
    It's stopped.
    Beautiful sky now but quite cold and windy.
    Oh. I'm not impressed now
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    On reflection, this is quite a suit statement for election day. I’m not sure quite how well it will go down in a rural north Essex polling station:


    I assume you got that suit in a sale
    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    I respect you, and your contributions to this site greatly, but I fear that you may be in need of an intervention.
  • alb1on said:

    alb1on said:

    alb1on said:



    I also recall Westland. Heseltine resigned on principle as he disagreed with Thatcher selling out to the Americans. So unlike dear Bo - who was sacked by Howard for lying.

    Heseltine has no principles beyond fanatical Europhilia.
    If the facts disagree with your opinion just spout hot air? Is that your principle?
    What facts? Your postings are fact free zones.
    Are you a complete idiot or is it just an act? Heseltine resigned over Westland because Thatcher wanted to gift it to Sikorsky. He resigned - he was not sacked (unlike Boris by Howard). Brittan was then (effectively) sacked (although it was presented as a resignation) for what amounted to misleading the Commons over his manouevreing against Heseltine's preferred solution as Defence Minister.

    What do you not undertsand about the facts? How can this make Heseltine less principled than Boris (which was the original claim by another nutter)?

    I have respect for most posters on this site, including those with whom I may disagree, but such an approach as yours loses all right to respect.
    No Heseltine resigned because he wanted it to go to a European company rather than the Americans. He is utterly devoid of any principles beyond a fanatical devotion to the EU. As is shown by his current idiocy encouraging people to vote for the Lib Dems.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    NW THRD
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    The polls seem to have massively underestimated youth turnout...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    humbugger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just having a coffee pitsop knocking up for IDS and the landlord has given it on the house but charging Momentum full whack tonight.

    IDS' son was out with us, a charming criminal barrister

    How do you think it's going?
    OK, not huge turnout so far here at least, more steady
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    This is the optimist's guide to potential results:

    Tory landslide: Laugh at Corbyn
    Small Tory majority: Laugh at Bozo for being in the same position as TMay
    Hung parliament: Laugh at Boris fanbois
    Corbyn win: laugh insanely and kill oneself!

    A small Tory majority is the same position as Cameron not May
    Au contraire. A small majority for Bozo will be exactly the same as no other party will touch the lying bastard with a barge pole
    He does not need any other party with a small Tory majority
  • Still a weird other-worldly feeling for me today.

    All the usual election day excitement and nervousness. Yet I haven't voted (Bury South, straight Lab/Tory fight, predicted red wall Tory gain apparently), and still have no idea who I will vote for later and indeed if I will vote at all.

    The lifelong Tory in me getting the pangs of nervousness at queues of Corbynite youths queueing round the block, the appalling weather trapping pensioners and the meek inside, the lead tightening from 11-12 etc to 7/8/9, the thought of my life being in the hands of Jez, McD, Abbott and all their associated hard left interest groups etc etc - and yet I am not even sure I want Mr Get Brexit Done to even win, given I don't actually want to get an increasingly pointless and insane Brexit done myself.

    I have contemplated voting Labour, a thought that makes me feel almost physically sick, because that is the best way of me trying to thwart Brexit now in my seat. But would a fairly soft Brexit where we largely have to stay in alignment, followed by the next inevitably Labour govt in 5/10 years (hopefully with a Blair like leader not a Trot) rejoining after a new referendum be so bad if it allows a majority Tory govt to protect the economy and sort out some loose ends like redrawing the boundaries to remove the Labour bias before the next GE, etc?

    I think I know what will happen in the sanctity of the polling booth. But in every idle moment I keep coming back to the insanity of Brexit (as the end game looks to have panned out for us) and thinking I just need to be brave and sweep out of power the Brexiteer fools are remain intent on forcing this silly pet project through.

    But I actually quite like Boris, the Brexit shitshow aside....

    Worth bearing in mind that the very worst result for those wanting to avoid a No Deal is a minority Tory Government where the ERG and DUP hold the balance of power.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    On reflection, this is quite a suit statement for election day. I’m not sure quite how well it will go down in a rural north Essex polling station:


    I assume you got that suit in a sale
    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Robin Meeks, Robin Meeks, riding thru the glen,
    Robin Meeks, Robin Meeks, with his merry men,
    Steals from the rich, takes 10% plus expenses,
    Robin Meeks!
    Robin Meeks!
    Robin Meeks!
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    alb1on said:

    How can someone so young become so arrogant and smug? I am begining to believe in reincarnation; she must have been an angry old man in a previous life.
    She is somewhere on the autistic scale. One of my cricket colleagues is similarly diagnosed. He has a successful career but a similar personality. Managing him when I was skipper was a nightmare.
    PC or not, the girls at my daughter's secondary school compete for the best Greta impressions, not complimentary.
    Girls can be cruel, especially 11-16
    I can understand children being so spiteful, but there is something wrong when grown men do it over a 16 year old.
  • nunu2 said:

    £ -0.53%, somebody got people counting at polling stations?

    Turnout here in London is absolutely on fire! These are Labour voters not tory (ethnic minorities- could save Labour seats in the north/Midlands if repeated there)
    If that happens will Boris's 'letterbox' and 'bank robber' remarks be a driver that no one picked up on?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472

    Boris Johnson will be delighted, another rootless cosmopolitan migrant is denied the vote.

    https://twitter.com/amandinegarde/status/1205104516858875904?s=21

    I understand DWP state pension statements will be the only acceptable proof of identity from the 2024 election.
    And the original, not a copy.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    MikeL said:

    Brom said:

    NOM is 3.35 Lab 35-40% is 3.65. NOM won't happen without the latter so thats where the value is.

    Worth remembering Betfair vote shares are UK, whilst almost all polls are GB.

    Lab 35% on Betfair is very close to 36% GB.

    I would have thought something like Con 41.5%, Lab 35.8% (GB) could give a Hung Parliament.
    There are some many imponderables in this election that it is unreadable unless you've got the result.
  • We still don’t know if youth turnout is higher in the north
  • We still don’t know if youth turnout is higher in the north

    Or in the south...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472
    alb1on said:

    There was a nice anti-Boris banner on a bridge over the Central Motorway in Newcastle this morning. 👍

    That's five years of pot-holes not getting fixed in Newcastle then.

    That should larn 'em.....
    MM - I rather suspect that "larn 'em" is an East Midlands rather than a Geordie expression.
    There is a book titled "Larn Yersel' Geordie"
    It was made into (or originated from - I am not sure which) a BBC radio series in the 70s. It was a cult listen when I was at university.
    Studying in Sunderland made this Essex boy able to understand Auf Weidersehn, Pet without subtitles.
  • Re those Tory Fibs Seats, can anyone verify what the results might me on UNS if Labour holds those seats
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Fenster said:

    Just been to my local polling station in Ystrad Mynach. I was the only person there.

    But a useless anecdote really because the GE won't be won or lost in Caerphilly.

    Don't the sheep vote? 😉
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    It seems Labour have pinned all of their hopes on 'youth turnout'. Hhhmm. I can't help thinking it's going to disappoint them where it matters most.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Re those Tory Fibs Seats, can anyone verify what the results might me on UNS if Labour holds those seats

    Tory landslide.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Gabs3 said:

    alb1on said:

    How can someone so young become so arrogant and smug? I am begining to believe in reincarnation; she must have been an angry old man in a previous life.
    She is somewhere on the autistic scale. One of my cricket colleagues is similarly diagnosed. He has a successful career but a similar personality. Managing him when I was skipper was a nightmare.
    PC or not, the girls at my daughter's secondary school compete for the best Greta impressions, not complimentary.
    Girls can be cruel, especially 11-16
    I can understand children being so spiteful, but there is something wrong when grown men do it over a 16 year old.
    Is she a stooge? If so does she know she is? I think kids, although having the capacity to be cruel, are sometimes more perceptive about their peers than adults are.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    On reflection, this is quite a suit statement for election day. I’m not sure quite how well it will go down in a rural north Essex polling station:


    I assume you got that suit in a sale
    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Whilst I am quite fond of pastel forest colours and (as mentioned previously) I do miss 90s fashions, there is a voice in my head that is screaming loudly "RED AND GREEN SHOULD NEVER BE SEEN!!!"

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    nunu2 said:


    Turnout here in London is absolutely on fire! These are Labour voters not tory (ethnic minorities- could save Labour seats in the north/Midlands if repeated there)

    If turnout for Labour is markedly up in London what does that mean for their vote share elsewhere?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    Fenster said:

    Just been to my local polling station in Ystrad Mynach. I was the only person there.

    But a useless anecdote really because the GE won't be won or lost in Caerphilly.

    Don't the sheep vote? 😉
    Don't be silly. They can't hold a pencil. :)
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the optimist's guide to potential results:

    Tory landslide: Laugh at Corbyn
    Small Tory majority: Laugh at Bozo for being in the same position as TMay
    Hung parliament: Laugh at Boris fanbois
    Corbyn win: laugh insanely and kill oneself!

    A small Tory majority is the same position as Cameron not May
    Au contraire. A small majority for Bozo will be exactly the same as no other party will touch the lying bastard with a barge pole
    He does not need any other party with a small Tory majority
    He will when the ERG do to him what they did to Theresa. If you think they won't, well....
  • viewcode said:

    Fenster said:

    Just been to my local polling station in Ystrad Mynach. I was the only person there.

    But a useless anecdote really because the GE won't be won or lost in Caerphilly.

    Don't the sheep vote? 😉
    Don't be silly. They can't hold a pencil. :)
    I think they were probably baaa'd from the polling station
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    viewcode said:

    On reflection, this is quite a suit statement for election day. I’m not sure quite how well it will go down in a rural north Essex polling station:


    I assume you got that suit in a sale
    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Whilst I am quite fond of pastel forest colours and (as mentioned previously) I do miss 90s fashions, there is a voice in my head that is screaming loudly "RED AND GREEN SHOULD NEVER BE SEEN!!!"

    'Blue and green should never be seen without another colour in between' shirley?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited December 2019

    viewcode said:

    Fenster said:

    Just been to my local polling station in Ystrad Mynach. I was the only person there.

    But a useless anecdote really because the GE won't be won or lost in Caerphilly.

    Don't the sheep vote? 😉
    Don't be silly. They can't hold a pencil. :)
    I think they were probably baaa'd from the polling station
    That's what ewe think!

    image
  • viewcode said:

    Fenster said:

    Just been to my local polling station in Ystrad Mynach. I was the only person there.

    But a useless anecdote really because the GE won't be won or lost in Caerphilly.

    Don't the sheep vote? 😉
    Don't be silly. They can't hold a pencil. :)
    I think they were probably baaa'd from the polling station
    That's what ewe think!
    They are probably predicting the result using EweNS
  • Jason said:

    Re those Tory Fibs Seats, can anyone verify what the results might me on UNS if Labour holds those seats

    Tory landslide.
    If they hold them?
  • Unless somebody knows something I don't, the 1.5 on a Tory Majority with Betfair must be one of the best bets since the site started.

    I expect it to be 1.10 after the big bong.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    Which channel coverage will be the best?

    I'm tending to ITV - Sir Guy of Gosborne and Mr Ballsup.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    viewcode said:

    On reflection, this is quite a suit statement for election day. I’m not sure quite how well it will go down in a rural north Essex polling station:


    I assume you got that suit in a sale
    You’ll be pleased to know I’ve changed into my proper Christmas jumper now:


    Whilst I am quite fond of pastel forest colours and (as mentioned previously) I do miss 90s fashions, there is a voice in my head that is screaming loudly "RED AND GREEN SHOULD NEVER BE SEEN!!!"

    I want to be enthusiastic because I liked the suit, but isn't that leafy green top rather "Thing from the Swamp"?

    image
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    We still don’t know if youth turnout is higher in the north

    Or in the south...
    So all the ramping is utterly pointless...
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019
    Just voted in an affluent part of London. Modest business

    Teller said voting had been quite brisk through the day but nothing special.

    So not all of London is youthquaking

This discussion has been closed.