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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim... :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Now they need help in Battersea.

    Both marginals, interesting

    I thought Battersea was very safe with several million youngsters voting before 8am.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

    It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Now they need help in Battersea.

    Both marginals, interesting


    You mean, marginals might actually be marginal?! Gobsmacking
    Maybe I should rename myself to ObviousHorseBattery
    No.

    A quick competition on what you should rename yourself?
    Batteries not included
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I will be extremely sad to see Mike Gapes leave the Commons in this election, the loss of people like him is as, if not more damaging than the loss of to Phillip Hammonds to the Conservatives.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    felix said:

    Now they need help in Battersea.

    Both marginals, interesting

    I thought Battersea was very safe with several million youngsters voting before 8am.
    LOL
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    I just voted. No queue, normal flow in and out. I learned nothing from it.

    Likewise in my station in Bootle. It was 11am. I've never voted at 11am before. Normally about 9am or about 7pm. So I can't tell anything from it.

    It wasn't as busy as May at the EU elections (when I voted at 7pm) but that tells me nowt really. Two elderly people leaving when I arrived (Reckon they voted Labour). One person rushed in and out whilst I was there (reckon they voted Labour too). One person arrived as I was leaving (Reckon they'll vote Labour).

    Prediction for my seat is a Labour HOLD.
    Lab hold Bootle? Well I suppose it's a view.
  • Nigelb said:

    Jason said:

    How about BotBattery? Seems to be good and agrees with the Tories here

    FlatBattery if it's a Tory majority.
    DeadBattery?

    In all seriousness, I do hope you’d realise I’d take it in good grace if I am wrong.
    InaccurateCounterBattery ?
    Itdoesn'tmatterifyouarewrongaslongasyoushowyourworkingsHorseBattery
  • I hope Bojo has trolled Neil today and phoned to offer him an interview

    Johnson is a gutless pillock. Can you imagine Margaret Thatcher chickening out of an interview with any journo? Absolutely not. Johnson fancies himself as a latter day Churchill, when even the most superficial analysis shows he is not fit to lick the great man's boots.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited December 2019
    Banterman said:

    mwadams said:

    Charles said:

    I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.

    Mike : forget the economics (including Brexit) if you can. Think about fundamentals.

    Johnson is a tosser but he won’t do irreparable harm. Corbyn is either evil or happy to facilitate evil.

    Hold your nose and lend your vote to the Conservatives. If it ends up being Tories by 1 MP then you will have done a good thing in keeping Corbyn out. If it ends up with a large Tory majority you didn’t make a difference.
    I was having this conversation the other day. I think the your analysis of Johnson is accurate: he is awful, posturing, weak, lazy, and not half as clever as he thinks he is, but not actively evil. My problem is that people around him (DC?) who are *not* lazy, really are evil.

    So the question is, while holding your nose, which brand of evil are you backing?
    All this Boris hate. He did a fine job as London mayor. Decent start as PM
    Erm, sorry. I'm a Londoner and I voted for him. The only time in my long life I ever regretted a vote. He was a useless clown, but more to the point he lied shamelessly to get elected. He stood as a pro-EU pro-business candidate. Now he's a fuck both candidate.

    We've elected liars to high office before but never in my experience knowing, beyond doubt, that they were liars before they were elected. His victory today would represent a new low.

    He won the Mayoralty because he was up against Livingstone. He will win today because of Corbyn. You couldn't set the bar a lot lower.
  • Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    The key thing to remember though is that most of these pictures are from London or other metropolitan cities.

    I think someone accused me of being flippant earlier by suggesting London didn’t matter for the GE result - clearly in a close contest Tory losses there will matter. But the general picture is that many of these inner city London or Manchester seats are solidly Labour and they will be piling up votes where it’s not required.
  • Phone banking for the LibDems' Laura Gordon in Sheffield Hallam.

    @TSE do you want me to get you a log-on so you can join in...?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    You can tell little from the fervent rumours during the day. It may be correct, it may not. Posters all have a reason for tweeting their thoughts.

    Far better to wait for anecdotes on here from people we know and trust, or who we know are connected to party operations and might legitimately have some insights.
    Betvictor have a special bet on site. IDS to win Chingford and Con majority. Even money. I'd have priced it shorter but not backing it.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    A reminder that this election sees new technology to improve our politics. Lengthy recounts have been replaced by a VAR panel led by Sir John Curtice.
  • viewcode said:

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim... :)
    It is very grim ooop North.
  • Nigelb said:

    Jason said:

    How about BotBattery? Seems to be good and agrees with the Tories here

    FlatBattery if it's a Tory majority.
    DeadBattery?

    In all seriousness, I do hope you’d realise I’d take it in good grace if I am wrong.
    InaccurateCounterBattery ?
    You are all very mean to Mr Battery! He might be right, although I hope not. Remember Plato and Trump.
    What does he believe wil happen? Hung parliament? Corbyn government? If he is on the former then his guess is the same as mine.
  • Just heard a blind teller with dog told to “fu*@ off Tory”....
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    NOM back down to 3.30
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    I agree it was a mistake but the deal was very likely passing anyway, nearly all the tory rebels were only anti no dealers rather than 2nd reffers. Better it passes with a mandate and the country having had some chance to reject it if they want to. So the timing a minor rather than major mistake.
    Yes, I think that is right. On the other hand the LibDem campaign has been a straightforward disaster.
    I cant disagree with that. The maths of coming from the 2017 GE with so few competitive seats for them was hugely problematic regardless of the campaigning though. Getting dozens of close 2nd places would still be some progress even if they dont win many seats.
    The graphs from YouGov’s model still predict an increase in LibDem vote share in the large majority of seats.

    And Jo still stands a chance of being the only party leader to come out of 2019 with a higher vote share than 2017. Possibly excluding the nationalists.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.
  • It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

    It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.
    We’re all working class here, a big coat is an indulgence.
  • Now they need help in Battersea.

    Both marginals, interesting


    You mean, marginals might actually be marginal?! Gobsmacking
    Maybe I should rename myself to ObviousHorseBattery
    No.

    A quick competition on what you should rename yourself?
    RampsHorseShit ?
  • I fail to see the problem with Labour campaigning to win seats. Their problem was the slow and partial response to anti semitism which is shameful, but they are perfectly entitled to campaign where they like.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    If Labour manage to deny the Tories a majority my chimney-sweep is in for a brutal pasting.
  • We won’t know until the exit poll, in 2017 we had doom and gloom from both sides
  • Nigelb said:

    Jason said:

    How about BotBattery? Seems to be good and agrees with the Tories here

    FlatBattery if it's a Tory majority.
    DeadBattery?

    In all seriousness, I do hope you’d realise I’d take it in good grace if I am wrong.
    InaccurateCounterBattery ?
    Itdoesn'tmatterifyouarewrongaslongasyoushowyourworkingsHorseBattery
    That is a name I can get behind. Of course showing your working reduces the chance of being wrong in the first place.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    viewcode said:

    Now they need help in Battersea.

    Both marginals, interesting


    You mean, marginals might actually be marginal?! Gobsmacking
    Maybe I should rename myself to ObviousHorseBattery
    No.

    A quick competition on what you should rename yourself?
    I like BrainwashedBattery, has a nice ring to it
    If I understand the origin of your name correctly, you can choose whatever you like provided it is at least 15 digits long and has one upper case letter, one lower case, one number and a punctuation mark.
    I think it's four words, all lower case letters, to make it easy to remember
    https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/password_strength.png
    Or he/she comes from Canada.

    https://what3words.com/correct.horses.battery
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    Battersea is supposed to be Lab 51%, Con 33% according to the YouGov MRP.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    Fenster said:

    All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.
    Yep, quite possible.
  • Boris should be safe enough in Uxbridge: there will always be a sufficient pool of neutrals in any seat who think that having the PM as their MP is a badge of honour. Boris's voting in the other constituency did come across as a touch supercilious though.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

    It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.
    We’re all working class here, a big coat is an indulgence.
    As was established at Leeds General Infirmary on Monday, "in t'north, a coit's fur liggin on, or fur treatin bairns".
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Fenster said:

    All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.
    And why not if it gets people to actually go and vote..
  • Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).

    If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.

    Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    The words straws and clutching spring to mind. This is a massacre! Labour are already burying the dead, and some will be really big beasts.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    The words straws and clutching spring to mind. This is a massacre! Labour are already burying the dead, and some will be really big beasts.
    I want Labour to lose.
  • Fenster said:

    All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.
    Yep, quite possible.
    What? More likely to put them off. Standing in a rainy queue isn't that appealing for anyone of any age
  • Betfair market all weak and wobbly on Tory Majority now.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    Northern Anecdata Incoming. Followup from the location of Crick's faked Tory Voxpop, no less. By Bonko.

    Unlike Southerner Smithson in Bedford, Ashfield is part of the North for today.

    Weather: so bloody miserable it might as well be in the North.
    Car park: full but perhaps for Christmas lunches at t'pub, not just voting.
    Present: Lab GOTV team. Looking as miserable as the weather, but there. First one for anybody I have ever seen there.
    Garden signs: Couple Tory, Couple Lab, dozen Indy.
    Voting: brisk. Apparently 200 through by 12:30, compared to about 500 total all day in a normal General Election. Seems a bit more brisk,

    Is that it? Yes.

    Tipster: Bloke who sold me eggs in the farm shop thinks it will be the Tory.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    The words straws and clutching spring to mind. This is a massacre! Labour are already burying the dead, and some will be really big beasts.
    God I wish I had your ballsy confidence.
  • Mr. Camel, 'bairns'?

    *sighs*
  • MimusMimus Posts: 56

    I agree totally with the header.

    I usually walk to the polling station in the evening. Today we went at about 8am. The polling station is only about 50 yards away, but still I'd rather get it done this morning than go out in the dark later.

    I went at 8 this morning in suburban Reading, busiest I have seen in the morning.

    Most elections I vote on my way to work, but walk up again in the evening with my wife and kids. Tonight it will be dark and wet, so will probably skip the return trip. People determined to vote are going to go earlier than usual today because of the weather.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

    It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.
    We’re all working class here, a big coat is an indulgence.
    Is that you Lady Whiteadder?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Quincel said:

    A reminder that this election sees new technology to improve our politics. Lengthy recounts have been replaced by a VAR panel led by Sir John Curtice.

    W
    Fenster said:

    All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.
    Mysticrose was telling us it was da yoof voting in huge ...numbers
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).

    If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.

    Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?

    "The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Today on PB is doing a great job of proving that, in the words of William Goldman, nobody knows anything.

    Apart from John Curtice, and he's not telling.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Mr. Camel, 'bairns'?

    *sighs*

    nippers

    sorry
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

    It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.
    We’re all working class here, a big coat is an indulgence.
    I had forgotten. Ten inches of snow, and the uniform outside Yates's on a Saturday consists of shorts and a vest.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Today on PB is doing a great job of proving that, in the words of William Goldman, nobody knows anything.

    Apart from John Curtice, and he's not telling.

    John Curtice, Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings.
  • Hoorar - one of our first never happened reports...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Update on the Daily Mail page.

    I have just refreshed the page (without having done anything else in between) and the big Conservative banner ad takeover is all over it.

    I'm guessing that means they are showing it to *everyone* in the UK as the browser I am using has no personally identifying information other than IP address (a VPN with a UK location).

    That will cost them. Unless their mates at the DM are doing them a very special price.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    eek said:

    Fenster said:

    All these photos of queues and stricken messages in London seem coordinated. It's as if it's been arranged to inspire young voters.
    And why not if it gets people to actually go and vote..
    100%. Not a bad ploy at all. To be fair to Momentum and Labour's young members they are good at rallying sheep.

    On my Twitter a lot of youngsters who I know well, who don't know shit from dirty clay, are sharing Labour get-out-and-vote propaganda.

    One girl (Britney - classic name!) who I only ever see off her face on drugs, and who probably can't tell the parties apart, is going big on Corbyn. I doubt she'll vote, though. She'll still be partying from last night.
  • viewcode said:

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim... :)
    Not just a wonderful piece of electro, its a list of seats Labour will lose tonight


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwtSdJaPCSI
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    MattW said:

    Northern Anecdata Incoming. Followup from the location of Crick's faked Tory Voxpop, no less. By Bonko.

    Unlike Southerner Smithson in Bedford, Ashfield is part of the North for today.

    Weather: so bloody miserable it might as well be in the North.
    Car park: full but perhaps for Christmas lunches at t'pub, not just voting.
    Present: Lab GOTV team. Looking as miserable as the weather, but there. First one for anybody I have ever seen there.
    Garden signs: Couple Tory, Couple Lab, dozen Indy.
    Voting: brisk. Apparently 200 through by 12:30, compared to about 500 total all day in a normal General Election. Seems a bit more brisk,

    Is that it? Yes.

    Tipster: Bloke who sold me eggs in the farm shop thinks it will be the Tory.

    MattW said:

    Northern Anecdata Incoming. Followup from the location of Crick's faked Tory Voxpop, no less. By Bonko.

    Unlike Southerner Smithson in Bedford, Ashfield is part of the North for today.

    Weather: so bloody miserable it might as well be in the North.
    Car park: full but perhaps for Christmas lunches at t'pub, not just voting.
    Present: Lab GOTV team. Looking as miserable as the weather, but there. First one for anybody I have ever seen there.
    Garden signs: Couple Tory, Couple Lab, dozen Indy.
    Voting: brisk. Apparently 200 through by 12:30, compared to about 500 total all day in a normal General Election. Seems a bit more brisk,

    Is that it? Yes.

    Tipster: Bloke who sold me eggs in the farm shop thinks it will be the Tory.

    That's a cracking tip. 🥚
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Using the Ipsos Mori final preffered PM numbers the Conservative lead is 7%.
    That's a majority of around 2-24.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    camel said:

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    I though so long as you had a 'big' coat you Northerners could do anything whatever the weather.

    It is the softie-remainer Southerners I am worrying about.
    We’re all working class here, a big coat is an indulgence.
    As was established at Leeds General Infirmary on Monday, "in t'north, a coit's fur liggin on, or fur treatin bairns".
    Isn't Hallam the only place North of the South that is in the UK top 20 most affluent list?

    It is also properly part of Derbyshire.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    I hope Bojo has trolled Neil today and phoned to offer him an interview

    Johnson is a gutless pillock. Can you imagine Margaret Thatcher chickening out of an interview with any journo? Absolutely not. Johnson fancies himself as a latter day Churchill, when even the most superficial analysis shows he is not fit to lick the great man's boots.

    Suck it up..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Jason said:

    Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    The words straws and clutching spring to mind. This is a massacre! Labour are already burying the dead, and some will be really big beasts.
    God I wish I had your ballsy confidence.
    It is not confidence it is the depressing realisation of forthcoming catastrophe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.

    They should have portrayed themselves as the moderate choice but their revoke position looks a bit extremist even for some Remainers .

    I think the deal would have eventually got through anyway , and let’s say it didn’t what the hell was the EU supposed to do in January .

    Say okay there’s a few more months for MPs to argue and still not find a resolution .

    The extension until the end of January was only granted because they thought an election was nailed on . Sorry to say but the EU just want rid of the UK now . A few countries might still hope there’d be a change of mind but these are a small minority .

    I spend a lot of time in France , no one even talks about Brexit , the papers have only shown a bit more interest now because of the GE but before you’d be lucky to find an item that didn’t end up next to the personal ads !

    I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .

    Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .

    If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .

    Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .

    People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.

    The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
    Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
  • I fail to see the problem with Labour campaigning to win seats. Their problem was the slow and partial response to anti semitism which is shameful, but they are perfectly entitled to campaign where they like.
    It is a bit 'dog in the manger' to campaign just to ruin the chances of a former colleague who was driven out. Especially when you need all the help you can get to keep your own seats and especially when your action will help the real enemy.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019

    Boris should be safe enough in Uxbridge: there will always be a sufficient pool of neutrals in any seat who think that having the PM as their MP is a badge of honour. Boris's voting in the other constituency did come across as a touch supercilious though.

    If he had voted in Uxbridge everyone would have said his primary residence is in Westminster anyone know where previous PMs have voted?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Eight hours till the bong.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited December 2019

    viewcode said:

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim... :)
    Not just a wonderful piece of electro, its a list of seats Labour will lose tonight
    Bolton, Barnsley, Nelson, Colne, Burnley, Bradford, Buxton, Crewe...

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    camel said:

    Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).

    If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.

    Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?

    "The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"
    They all promised more affordable housing...
  • It's now pissing it down in Pontefract. No anecdotes yet.
  • Hoorar - one of our first never happened reports...
    i've seen that 'meme' do the rounds before.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2019
    Time to remember the master's words:

    They're out of sorts in Sunderland
    And terribly cross in Kent,
    They're dull in Hull
    And the Isle of Mull
    Is seething with discontent,
    They're nervous in Northumberland
    And Devon is down the drain,
    They're filled with wrath
    On the firth of Forth
    And sullen on Salisbury Plain.
    ..
    We all get bitched about, lads,
    Whoever our vote elects,
    We know we're up the spout, lads.
    And that's what England expects.

    Hurray, hurray, hurray!
    Trouble is on the way.
    There are bad times just around the corner,
    The horizon's gloomy as can be,
    There are black birds over
    The grayish cliffs of Dover
    And the rats are preparing to leave the BBC.


    https://youtu.be/lCZCv98XKFs
  • I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    I read it and have never voted Conservative and doubt I ever will.
    Read it for sport and sci/tech mostly. It is free and fairly comprehensive

  • Freggles said:

    just checking, is it OK to share turnout information passed on from polling station staff to candidates?

    Not live on the 1 o'clock news if you're the Beeb's Political Editor
  • I bet it was Gina Miller asking...

    :smiley:
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    There is a weather window coming into.London at about 5.30 tonight where its clearing up.
    People even after being knocked up are saying on the doorstep they will wait for the rain to.ease..if it doesnt then the results could be pretty skewed as voters warm and snug in their homes decide to stay there
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited December 2019

    viewcode said:

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim... :)
    Not just a wonderful piece of electro, its a list of seats Labour will lose tonight
    Bolton, Barnsley, Nelson, Colne, Burnley, Bradford, Buxton, Crewe...

    All of them are South of us - note just south not the Beautiful South...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Betfair market all weak and wobbly on Tory Majority now.

    Another chance to pile in before it goes back down below 1.3
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    To add to voting reports: I voted at 11.00 this morning in Merrow, Guildford. Pretty quiet, but what was surprising was that only the LDs had a teller.At every previous election I remember in the 20 years since I moved here there have been both LD and Tory tellers. Surprising as Merrow is more Tory than most Guildford town wards.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    IF the battersea thing is correct and it is close there then labour would be in for an almighty kicking tonight
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited December 2019
    Pulpstar said:
    "Their claims are absolute mince."

    Pies.

    Does make the LibDems look pretty damned po-faced though. As they dispense a dozen leaflets all paid for by the central office and that have nothing to do with this constituency, no sirreee...

    LibDem "non-seat specific expenditures" are such a flagrant breach of the spirit of election expenses law.
  • viewcode said:

    It is raining quite heavily in the desolate North.

    Not seen anyone whippet racing, if they won’t race whippets in this weather then they won’t go out and vote either.

    Is it grim? Please tell me it's grim... :)
    Not just a wonderful piece of electro, its a list of seats Labour will lose tonight


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwtSdJaPCSI
    Aren't these the idiots who literally burned a million quid? Use that as a metaphor for whatever you wish!
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    I've voted outside of London for the first time in a GE.
    Been voting since 1983 and I've never had to queue.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,844
    edited December 2019

    I fail to see the problem with Labour campaigning to win seats. Their problem was the slow and partial response to anti semitism which is shameful, but they are perfectly entitled to campaign where they like.
    It is a bit 'dog in the manger' to campaign just to ruin the chances of a former colleague who was driven out. Especially when you need all the help you can get to keep your own seats and especially when your action will help the real enemy.
    If they were diverting the key people in London and the SE to her constituency then I might have some sympathy. It is a last minute email appeal to randoms without a plan to turn up to help on the day, realistically that is not key Labour resource going to her seat but a token effort.
  • I bet it was Gina Miller asking...

    :smiley:
    My guess would be Lord Adonis
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    RobD said:

    I want to see a histogram of occurrences of the word brisk in PB comments over time.

    Graphs show only the LibDems can be brisk here!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Freggles said:

    just checking, is it OK to share turnout information passed on from polling station staff to candidates?

    Not live on the 1 o'clock news if you're the Beeb's Political Editor
    Turnout information isn't a problem - any comment on how the actual votes are is...
  • IF the battersea thing is correct and it is close there then labour would be in for an almighty kicking tonight

    I can't see it in central london.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Hoorar - one of our first never happened reports...
    To be fair, and I hope the Tories win, that particular result wouldn't upset me too greatly.
  • Mr. Camel, better, though I would've gone with whippersnappers.

    Raining quite a bit here now.
  • Charles said:

    I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.

    Mike : forget the economics (including Brexit) if you can. Think about fundamentals.

    Johnson is a tosser but he won’t do irreparable harm. Corbyn is either evil or happy to facilitate evil.

    Hold your nose and lend your vote to the Conservatives. If it ends up being Tories by 1 MP then you will have done a good thing in keeping Corbyn out. If it ends up with a large Tory majority you didn’t make a difference.
    Vote Tory despite the economy? Interesting logic

    Brexit and Johnson can do irreparable harm
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    MattW said:

    camel said:

    Gabs3 said:

    These turnout queues are staggering and they are looking like mainly young voters. If I remember the polling turnout figures had more moderate turnout figures. This could be very close.

    It's funny you should say this. When you think of what issues concern young voters the most, it's always climate change and affordable housing. This morning's Yorkshire Post reported that half of the region's voters planned on voting for a party that promised more affordable housing (see here).

    If the young are out in force, especially here in Yorkshire, it does make you question whether or not the mainstream polling companies have screwed up vis-a-vis young people, turnout and the issues that they focus on.

    Everything says that the Conservatives should walk this, but... there's this niggle in the back of my mind. Are we missing something obvious? Shy Labour voters rather than shy Tories?

    "The poll by Homes for the North, which represents 17 of the largest housing associations in the north"
    They all promised more affordable housing...
    The headline is hilarious:

    "Research shows voters want more homes in their local area, not less"

    You try and build 50 or 60 and see what happens...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019

    IF the battersea thing is correct and it is close there then labour would be in for an almighty kicking tonight

    It probably isn't true though, you often get this dark arts stuff. I just posted to show where it's coming from.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Heard a first-hand report that turnout is sky-high in South Cambridgeshire. That bodes very well for the Lib Dems if true.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    IF the battersea thing is correct and it is close there then labour would be in for an almighty kicking tonight

    I can't see it in central london.
    Me either tbf
  • nunu2 said:

    If they're urgently needed in Chingford that means they haven't sealed the deal and it is moving away from them. Stop ramping, please.
    "it is moving away from them"

    That's also ramping - please stop it
  • Remember folks Vote! Vote! Vote for Nigel Barton!

    (one for the over 50s there)

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Has anyone done a spreadsheet with last GE's turnouts on it?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Phil said:

    Just had the LibDem get the vote out crowd come down the street in the driving rain. Fair play to them: they’re putting the work in. (OxWAB if anyone cares.)

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure the election itself was a mistake . The problem was the Lib Dems revoke position.


    I’m an ardent Remainer but seriously I think too many people don’t understand that for the EU they have a choice as to an unstable neighbour racked with toxicity and EU relations becoming a political football in every election or a neighbour where relations can be rebuilt once the air is let out of the Brexit balloon .

    Brexit being done is clearly not going to happen quickly , the symbolism of leaving though is quite powerful and that will just by itself reduce some of the toxicity .

    If the EU had really wanted to help stop Brexit they would have rolled the dice and not agreed a deal and then hoped against no deal in an election that Johnson would lose .

    Everything changed once a deal was agreed . Because Ireland are very happy with that outcome the EU can rightly say they supported them and stood by what is a smallish country . No one can accuse the EU of not standing by one of their members .

    People spent 6 months saying how Labour's policy of a second referendum after creating a plan were we to leave was impossible to sell.

    The Lib Dems went for a simple approach but it failed as soon as the election moved away from Brexit.
    Labour's position on Brexit could have been easier to sell if the LibDems had been selling it too. Park Brexit as an issue between Labour and the LibDems, allowing the LibDems to savage Labour on its funny money manifesto pledges. Both aspects would have had more chance of attracting Tories.
    If Swinson was targeting Tory votes then I think her constant personal attacks on BoJo was a mistake as well. BoJo may well have personal flaws but he is in the Tory Tribe and attack on BoJo is an attack on the Tory Tribe which means ranks will be closed.
  • https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205127078854746112

    that is not the sound of a optimistic person though...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    More generally, I think the LibDem "dozens of leaflets" strategy has reached the wrong side of the curve. It has got to the point of antagonising voters. "They just look bloody desperate" as somebody commented to me yesterday.

    Next time, fewer leaflets with more policies, eh?
  • Ipsos MORI... must have Ipsos MORI...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    Now they need help in Battersea.

    Both marginals, interesting


    You mean, marginals might actually be marginal?! Gobsmacking
    Maybe I should rename myself to ObviousHorseBattery
    Could you not fit the Staple in your username?
  • nichomar said:

    Boris should be safe enough in Uxbridge: there will always be a sufficient pool of neutrals in any seat who think that having the PM as their MP is a badge of honour. Boris's voting in the other constituency did come across as a touch supercilious though.

    If he had voted in Uxbridge everyone would have said his primary residence is in Westminster anyone know where previous PMs have voted?
    Can't see 'Blair' on this, so presumably Tone voted in Islington.

    https://youtu.be/gi5j7jjhm4M?t=126
This discussion has been closed.