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It was a shock that YouGov weren't publishing another poll on Wednesday. I'd been expecting one because I had until now been labouring under the illusion that because YouGov's fieldwork was conducted over 4-10 December, the 9% Con lead in their poll was based on all observations over that period. i.e. too wide a period on which to base a final call poll.
However, I had overlooked the write up on their "key findings" report which states that:
"Since the weekend the Conservative lead over Labour in our model has shrunk from 11% to 9%, which has also brought down the estimated size of the Tory majority." That and the daily graph in the report indicate that the lead fell to 9% only on 10th December. So all the other earlier polling must only have been used to calibrate the constituency modelling before it was scaled back to match the 10th December final polling lead.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/key-findings-our-final-mrp-poll
The key point is that the ability of the Conservatives to hold a 9% lead in the final YouGov needs to be put into the context that the poll was conducted on an exceptionally ropy campaigning day for them, what with all the fuss going on about the photo of the kid at the hospital.0 -
Don't forget the Conservatives were down at 165 seats in 1997. Once you get past a certain level in FPTP, you can start to lose seats really fast.Philip_Thompson said:
I hope you're right, though I can't see that many Cons and so many Lib Dems simultaneously. One or the other.rcs1000 said:Election day.
And now for my forecast.Conservative 377
Labour 183
LibDem 18
SNP 48
PC 4
Green 10 -
The libdem vs Labour share is somewhat a double edged sword for Remain.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't disagree, but I think 9% is still too low. Jezza is still toxic to many and so I think they will get more than that....especially as in your Bath's of the world they will vote en-masse Lib Dem.nunu2 said:
No they dont. Labour is simply coalescong the Remain vote.FrancisUrquhart said:Lib Dem 9%...nahhh...really...hmmm..
Survation I think you need to turn it off and on again.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kp2wlIMBcJA&list=PLAA422C11A1F18EBA&index=4Byronic said:
I was literally in Rome enjoying a posho rooftop party for the 2017 election. There were half naked dancers and the like. Then the exit poll came in and I felt shocked for about 10 minutes, then I went back to the Trentodoc wine and foie gras bruschettaCookie said:
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
Strange days. It was like a Fellini film.
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No. You’ll need passes from one of the candidates.argyllrs said:Have my partner's lad coming over to do an all nighter for the election. He has started 'A' Level politics this year. If we were to try to go and watch the local count, would we be allowed in?
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Survation have now edited it to include BXP on 3.1. AP is "another party".
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/12049203291661066261 -
You can see that in the YouGov MRP charts, really quite small changes when on the barrier as the Tories are at 9% lead (in their model). Sub 1% moves have significant swings in number of seats.rcs1000 said:
Don't forget the Conservatives were down at 165 seats in 1997. Once you get past a certain level in FPTP, you can start to lose seats really fast.Philip_Thompson said:
I hope you're right, though I can't see that many Cons and so many Lib Dems simultaneously. One or the other.rcs1000 said:Election day.
And now for my forecast.Conservative 377
Labour 183
LibDem 18
SNP 48
PC 4
Green 10 -
Very good point. I was initially worried as well, but after discovering that, and seeing tonight's polls, I'm very confident we'll get a tory majority. Probably between 340 and 350 seats.Wulfrun_Phil said:It was a shock that YouGov weren't publishing another poll on Wednesday. I'd been expecting one because I had until now been labouring under the illusion that because YouGov's fieldwork was conducted over 4-10 December, the 9% Con lead in their poll was based on all observations over that period. i.e. too wide a period on which to base a final call poll.
However, I had overlooked the write up on their "key findings" report which states that:
"Since the weekend the Conservative lead over Labour in our model has shrunk from 11% to 9%, which has also brought down the estimated size of the Tory majority." That and the daily graph in the report indicate that the lead fell to 9% only on 10th December. So all the other earlier polling must only have been used to calibrate the constituency modelling before it was scaled back to match the 10th December final polling lead.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/key-findings-our-final-mrp-poll
The key point is that the ability of the Conservatives to hold a 9% lead in the final YouGov needs to be put into the context that the poll was conducted on an exceptionally ropy campaigning day for them, what with all the fuss going on about the photo of the kid at the hospital.0 -
I'm old enough to remember the SLab ramping on the previous thread, so a quick reality check from yer pals at Survation:
SNP 45.6%
Tory 27.4%
Lab 14.8%
Lib 9.6%0 -
*puts away KLAXON*AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm old enough to remember the SLab ramping on the previous thread, so a quick reality check from yer pals at Survation:
SNP 45.6%
Tory 27.4%
Lab 14.8%
Lib 9.6%
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It's a subsample, the MoE is too high to conclude anything. Let's wait for their Scotland only poll (which has a proper sample size).AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm old enough to remember the SLab ramping on the previous thread, so a quick reality check from yer pals at Survation:
SNP 45.6%
Tory 27.4%
Lab 14.8%
Lib 9.6%0 -
Again missing the point that if Farage wasn't there most of those votes would go back to Labour not to the Tories. I suspect the Brexit Party may be responsible for helping the Tories over the line in a number of normally Labour constituencies.speedy2 said:
Correct.Brom said:
That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.1 -
It's an excellent and pointed article, but she uses way too many colons and semi-colons!Luckyguy1983 said:
Her restaurant reviews in The Spectator are wonderful.Andy_JS said:Interesting Tanya Gold article.
https://unherd.com/2019/12/how-labour-betrayed-their-supporters/
On that punctuational bombshell, nightynight0 -
*gets out KLAXON again*Nobidexx said:
It's a subsample, the MoE is too high to conclude anything. Let's wait for their Scotland only poll (which has a proper sample size).AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm old enough to remember the SLab ramping on the previous thread, so a quick reality check from yer pals at Survation:
SNP 45.6%
Tory 27.4%
Lab 14.8%
Lib 9.6%
1 -
I won't make a prediction, but I will *squeal* with happiness if the Conservatives get between 335 and 341, as that will mean 52:48 division in the HoC0
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If RCS is right we are heading for a 1935 result incoming . Labour will get the kicking it deserves and will either self destruct or rebrand . Corbyn will be toast. Thank goodness . If his party won’t get rid of him the British public will do the job .0
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It's a super article - she's a fantastic columnist.Byronic said:
It's an excellent and pointed article, but she uses way too many colons and semi-colons!Luckyguy1983 said:
Her restaurant reviews in The Spectator are wonderful.Andy_JS said:Interesting Tanya Gold article.
https://unherd.com/2019/12/how-labour-betrayed-their-supporters/
On that punctuational bombshell, nightynight0 -
Well I am still bracing for the nightmare sound of Huw telling us the Exit Poll says Hung Parliament.kjohnw1 said:If RCS is right we are heading for a 1935 result incoming . Labour will get the kicking it deserves and will either self destruct or rebrand . Corbyn will be toast. Thank goodness . If his party won’t get rid of him the British public will do the job .
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Is that the Scottish poll?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm old enough to remember the SLab ramping on the previous thread, so a quick reality check from yer pals at Survation:
SNP 45.6%
Tory 27.4%
Lab 14.8%
Lib 9.6%0 -
No...not out yet.fitalass said:
Is that the Scottish poll?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm old enough to remember the SLab ramping on the previous thread, so a quick reality check from yer pals at Survation:
SNP 45.6%
Tory 27.4%
Lab 14.8%
Lib 9.6%
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/0 -
To be clear, I am not a PB Tory and just calling it as I see it. The only parties I could vote for at this election without tearing my hair out in frustration would be the SDP or Yorkshire Party, as moderate Brexit-supporting parties. In the West Midlands that's a bit difficult.Nobidexx said:
Very good point. I was initially worried as well, but after discovering that, and seeing tonight's polls, I'm very confident we'll get a tory majority. Probably between 340 and 350 seats.Wulfrun_Phil said:It was a shock that YouGov weren't publishing another poll on Wednesday. I'd been expecting one because I had until now been labouring under the illusion that because YouGov's fieldwork was conducted over 4-10 December, the 9% Con lead in their poll was based on all observations over that period. i.e. too wide a period on which to base a final call poll.
However, I had overlooked the write up on their "key findings" report which states that:
"Since the weekend the Conservative lead over Labour in our model has shrunk from 11% to 9%, which has also brought down the estimated size of the Tory majority." That and the daily graph in the report indicate that the lead fell to 9% only on 10th December. So all the other earlier polling must only have been used to calibrate the constituency modelling before it was scaled back to match the 10th December final polling lead.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/key-findings-our-final-mrp-poll
The key point is that the ability of the Conservatives to hold a 9% lead in the final YouGov needs to be put into the context that the poll was conducted on an exceptionally ropy campaigning day for them, what with all the fuss going on about the photo of the kid at the hospital.1 -
Pollsters, with naff record even in two party days, can’t poll these days, lumpy vote, tactical replies and lies, numerous options including nationalists. It’s impossible.Cookie said:
But the MRP was the gold standard last time around, and by the MRP we are within MOE of HP.HYUFD said:
Survation forecast 2017 (and 2015), Trafalgar Group had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Opinium and ICM had Leave ahead in 2016, not a single pollster now has Corbyn anywhere near a majority or even most seats.KentRising said:
Pleasingly very, very recent.HYUFD said:
Yesterday and todayKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament
I am not comfortable. Far from it. But at least I am feeling less despondent than I was last night.0 -
Many thanks.FrancisUrquhart said:
No...not out yet.fitalass said:
Is that the Scottish poll?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm old enough to remember the SLab ramping on the previous thread, so a quick reality check from yer pals at Survation:
SNP 45.6%
Tory 27.4%
Lab 14.8%
Lib 9.6%
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/0 -
https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-north-brexit-corbyn
Barry Russell is 82 and has voted Labour all his life, but this time he will be backing Johnson instead. He’s sceptical of Labour’s pledges and said Corbyn “has been a disaster.”
“I’m not a Conservative, but I’m voting Conservative,” he told BuzzFeed News. “He’s the only person to vote for…to keep Mr Corbyn out. That man’s an idiot. He wants to nationalise coal, electric, everything. He wants to get rid of our deterrent. He’s going to give millions for this, and millions for that — where’s he going to get all the money from?"
He added: “Whether we like it or not, like I say I’ve been Labour all my life, we’ve got to have the rich people, that’s where we get our money from.”0 -
Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
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No, they're releasing it at 6 am.RobD said:Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
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how is 6am "shortly" after 10pm?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
No, they're releasing it at 6 am.RobD said:Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
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Bet they've been on the Xmas Night Out. Those numbers were probably drawn at random.RobD said:
how is 6am "shortly" after 10pm?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
No, they're releasing it at 6 am.RobD said:Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
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Diane Abbott maths?RobD said:
how is 6am "shortly" after 10pm?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
No, they're releasing it at 6 am.RobD said:Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
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"The Brexit Party is not going to win any seats, according to YouGov's latest MRP which suggests at best it might hope to win a single MP (in Barnsley Central). But it will take a slice of the vote across the country, votes which would have mostly benefited the Tories. For every voter Mr Farage's candidates take from Labour, Professor Matt Goodwin explains to me, they take three off the Tories."Richard_Tyndall said:
Again missing the point that if Farage wasn't there most of those votes would go back to Labour not to the Tories. I suspect the Brexit Party may be responsible for helping the Tories over the line in a number of normally Labour constituencies.speedy2 said:
Correct.Brom said:
That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/leavers-dont-waste-vote-brexit-party-tories-can-beat-remainers/0 -
Go the opposite way of the pundits.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/12049254996272005140 -
If that is correct, then the LDs will be lucky to still be on 12 seats.brokenwheel said:Survation have now edited it to include BXP on 3.1. AP is "another party".
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/12049203291661066260 -
Why of all the lazy, goodfornothing....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
No, they're releasing it at 6 am.RobD said:Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
night all. 2 -
I think is a bit of both to be honest, can’t be owned one way or other. There was work on seats farage pulled out, 4 voters 3 onto tory 1 to labour, so if you drop them back In they don’t suck more Tory votes than labour ones? But there can be huge difference in mindset of voters in Tory leave heartlands and labour leave heartlands so yes, I agree in principle, some labour leave far more comfortable voting brex than Tory, so down comes labour share, but not by equivalents, there will be plenty Tory attracted by brex option unless we are in mindset why would they be so silly, but it’s not silly just a dislike of Boris, or his deal, or just cult of farage telling it like it is whilst main parties slipperyRichard_Tyndall said:
Again missing the point that if Farage wasn't there most of those votes would go back to Labour not to the Tories. I suspect the Brexit Party may be responsible for helping the Tories over the line in a number of normally Labour constituencies.speedy2 said:
Correct.Brom said:
That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.0 -
Are they doing via an abacus or something?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
No, they're releasing it at 6 am.RobD said:Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
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Scotland, Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 46% (+9)
CON: 28% (-1)
LAB: 15% (-12)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 1% (+1)
BREX: 1% (+1)
via @Survation, 10 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ GE20170 -
They've had to reboot the Spectrum 48k.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are they doing via an abacus or something?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
No, they're releasing it at 6 am.RobD said:Do I wait for the Scottish poll, or get an early night. I wonder if anyone is still at Survation.
0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Scotland, Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 46% (+9)
CON: 28% (-1)
LAB: 15% (-12)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 1% (+1)
BREX: 1% (+1)
via @Survation, 10 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ GE2017 no need for klaxon. 0 -
Or are those the subsample figures?0
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I don't know, bit concerned as no official Survation tweet. It is Britain Elects though, who normally reliable.RobD said:Or are those the subsample figures?
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In 21 hours we'll be listening to Arthur.0
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Where’s this getting rid of deterrent thing coming from? They said they are not. Manifesto said they are not. Unions wont let them kill those jobs. Are some papers repetitively lying that they are, voters sucked into that lie?Floater said:https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-north-brexit-corbyn
Barry Russell is 82 and has voted Labour all his life, but this time he will be backing Johnson instead. He’s sceptical of Labour’s pledges and said Corbyn “has been a disaster.”
“I’m not a Conservative, but I’m voting Conservative,” he told BuzzFeed News. “He’s the only person to vote for…to keep Mr Corbyn out. That man’s an idiot. He wants to nationalise coal, electric, everything. He wants to get rid of our deterrent. He’s going to give millions for this, and millions for that — where’s he going to get all the money from?"
He added: “Whether we like it or not, like I say I’ve been Labour all my life, we’ve got to have the rich people, that’s where we get our money from.”0 -
I thought you went to bed hours ago!Big_G_NorthWales said:Scotland, Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 46% (+9)
CON: 28% (-1)
LAB: 15% (-12)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 1% (+1)
BREX: 1% (+1)
via @Survation, 10 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ GE20170 -
The Survation scottish poll will be published at 6am.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't know, bit concerned as no official Survation tweet. It is Britain Elects though, who normally reliable.RobD said:Or are those the subsample figures?
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They stated on their website they had a sample of 2395, plus an additional Scottish sample - additional 1000 persons (and a additional Welsh sample 340, presumably that was subsumed in the UK) and a larger English sample than usual.RobD said:Or are those the subsample figures?
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It’s definitely hung, after the late swing and Boris nightmare week.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well I am still bracing for the nightmare sound of Huw telling us the Exit Poll says Hung Parliament.kjohnw1 said:If RCS is right we are heading for a 1935 result incoming . Labour will get the kicking it deserves and will either self destruct or rebrand . Corbyn will be toast. Thank goodness . If his party won’t get rid of him the British public will do the job .
You should only expect lunacy under a full moon like this.0 -
Corbyn has stated on numerous occasions that he won't press the button so what's the use of the deterrent & when Labour quickly runs out of money it will be one of the first things to be scrapped.egg said:
Where’s this getting rid of deterrent thing coming from? They said they are not. Manifesto said they are not. Unions wont let them kill those jobs. Are some papers repetitively lying that they are, voters sucked into that lie?Floater said:https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-north-brexit-corbyn
Barry Russell is 82 and has voted Labour all his life, but this time he will be backing Johnson instead. He’s sceptical of Labour’s pledges and said Corbyn “has been a disaster.”
“I’m not a Conservative, but I’m voting Conservative,” he told BuzzFeed News. “He’s the only person to vote for…to keep Mr Corbyn out. That man’s an idiot. He wants to nationalise coal, electric, everything. He wants to get rid of our deterrent. He’s going to give millions for this, and millions for that — where’s he going to get all the money from?"
He added: “Whether we like it or not, like I say I’ve been Labour all my life, we’ve got to have the rich people, that’s where we get our money from.”0 -
Lib Dems 0-9 seats available at 8/1 on BF sportsbook...rcs1000 said:
If that is correct, then the LDs will be lucky to still be on 12 seats.brokenwheel said:Survation have now edited it to include BXP on 3.1. AP is "another party".
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1204920329166106626
I don't see it personally. I think their vote will be extremely efficient and they will win at least as many seats as they have now and maybe even go forward.
I do however think they could be in trouble in seats like North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.0 -
No they did an additional Scottish sample of 1000 people.Andrew said:
Might be. Main poll Scotland subsample is 735 people, with SNP 45.6%, Con 27.4%, Lab 14.8%, LD 9.6%, BXP 1.4%, Green 1.1%RobD said:Or are those the subsample figures?
Plus their main UK sample was 2395, plus an additional Welsh sample of 340.0 -
No on two counts.egg said:
I think is a bit of both to be honest, can’t be owned one way or other. There was work on seats farage pulled out, 4 voters 3 onto tory 1 to labour, so if you drop them back In they don’t suck more Tory votes than labour ones? But there can be huge difference in mindset of voters in Tory leave heartlands and labour leave heartlands so yes, I agree in principle, some labour leave far more comfortable voting brex than Tory, so down comes labour share, but not by equivalents, there will be plenty Tory attracted by brex option unless we are in mindset why would they be so silly, but it’s not silly just a dislike of Boris, or his deal, or just cult of farage telling it like it is whilst main parties slipperyRichard_Tyndall said:
Again missing the point that if Farage wasn't there most of those votes would go back to Labour not to the Tories. I suspect the Brexit Party may be responsible for helping the Tories over the line in a number of normally Labour constituencies.speedy2 said:
Correct.Brom said:
That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.
Firstly, the Sunday Times YouGov had the BXP on 3% of which 4% came from 2017 Con voters and 2% from 2017 Lab voters. By definition, all of those votes were from seats which are not Conservative held because the BXP are not standing in any of those seats. About 90% of the seats they are standing in were won by Labour in 2017.
Secondly, it is obvious that in the absence of the BXP the 2017 Con voters who defected would return to the Cons as the only other Leave party standing. You cannot similarly infer that 2017 Labour Leave defectors would in the absence of the BXP return to a Remain party in the shape of Labour, given that their first choice is a Leave Party.0 -
It's election day. Night all.3
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olm said:
No they did an additional Scottish sample of 1000 people.
Plus their main UK sample was 2395, plus an additional Welsh sample of 340.
Yeah, the 735 is after weightings, likelihood to vote, and undecideds/refused (Table 4).
Raw data before all that is indeed 1000 in Scotland, 340 in Wales (Table 1).
https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/12001259/Survation-Final-Poll-2019-Tables-.xlsx
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Richard_Tyndall said:
Again missing the point that if Farage wasn't there most of those votes would go back to Labour not to the Tories. I suspect the Brexit Party may be responsible for helping the Tories over the line in a number of normally Labour constituencies.speedy2 said:
Correct.Brom said:
That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.
I think that's spot on.0 -
In trouble is putting it mildly in North Norfolk. The MRP gives the LDs a 99% probability of losing.kyf_100 said:
Lib Dems 0-9 seats available at 8/1 on BF sportsbook...rcs1000 said:
If that is correct, then the LDs will be lucky to still be on 12 seats.brokenwheel said:Survation have now edited it to include BXP on 3.1. AP is "another party".
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1204920329166106626
I don't see it personally. I think their vote will be extremely efficient and they will win at least as many seats as they have now and maybe even go forward.
I do however think they could be in trouble in seats like North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.
I have that result at 7/4 and am pissed off that Ladbrokes only allowed me to put £57 on and that I did not get on it at 5/1.0 -
No Lab are keeping the 'deterrent', but (apparently) not going to use it. As Piers M & Susanna would say (I rarely agree, but on this occasion) what kind of deterrent is that? And a very expensive one to boot.egg said:
Where’s this getting rid of deterrent thing coming from? They said they are not. Manifesto said they are not. Unions wont let them kill those jobs. Are some papers repetitively lying that they are, voters sucked into that lie?Floater said:https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-north-brexit-corbyn
Barry Russell is 82 and has voted Labour all his life, but this time he will be backing Johnson instead. He’s sceptical of Labour’s pledges and said Corbyn “has been a disaster.”
“I’m not a Conservative, but I’m voting Conservative,” he told BuzzFeed News. “He’s the only person to vote for…to keep Mr Corbyn out. That man’s an idiot. He wants to nationalise coal, electric, everything. He wants to get rid of our deterrent. He’s going to give millions for this, and millions for that — where’s he going to get all the money from?"
He added: “Whether we like it or not, like I say I’ve been Labour all my life, we’ve got to have the rich people, that’s where we get our money from.”
There would be even more money to spend if they did that. Maybe SNP would give them the pressure to get rid of it.
In any event, Lab have alas failed to fully get across the payback income benefits of investments, including nationalising national monopolies, and investing in Green deal.0 -
If Brexit withdraws completely it could just as easily bespeedy2 said:
Correct.Brom said:
That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.
CON 44
Lab 37
LD 11
Any Leaver who doesn't vote Con now must have an intense dislike of Con and might revert to Lab if BXP stood down.0 -
If those are the Scottish numbers they are very bad for Con.
It implies huge tactical voting against Con.
1997 to 2015 there was no need to tactically vote against Con as they only won one seat anyway.
Then they win lots of seats in 2017. Result: Now lots of tactical voting suddenly happens to boot them out.
Very disappointing for Con - takes the gloss off the main Survation poll - and it's serious as if correct Con could lose a lot of Scottish seats.
This is also consistent with YouGov MRP which had them losing lots of Scottish seats.
After a great night of polling for Con, this is a big worry.0 -
My post FPT....MikeL said:If those are the Scottish numbers they are very bad for Con.
It implies huge tactical voting against Con.
"Anecdata: talked to a lawyer, staunch Tory unionist, lives in a SNP seat w/ close-ish Tory challenger … voting tactically for SNP because of Remain. Surprised me anyway."
1 -
My forecast
Con 314
Lab 242
SNP 50
LD 18
DUP 7
SF 7
PC 5
ALL 2
SDLP 2
GRN 1
IND 1 (E Devon)
SPKR 1
NOC - all power in the hands of the DUP and LD
0 -
Can’t quite believe that Scottish poll .
That’s atrocious for Labour , and even though the Survation UK wide poll is very good for the Tories the SNP poll number because of the way the seats set up there will see Labour and the Tories routed .
And if Labour are doing that badly in Scotland then they must be doing better in England than the Survation UK poll would suggest .
This is now getting very confusing ! Oh and a word about the Lib Dems , sadly my thoughts when they went for revoke look to be playing out . That Survation is a horror show for them .
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The real issue in the world, beyond climate change and habitat loss and poverty, but driving all of those things, is the power of superstates - US, Russia, China, India, Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan (and perhaps Mexico, Bangladesh. Phillipines, Japan - over 100 mill each or even Germany, Turkey, France, UK, South Africa, over 60 mill).funkhauser said:
Corbyn has stated on numerous occasions that he won't press the button so what's the use of the deterrent & when Labour quickly runs out of money it will be one of the first things to be scrapped.egg said:
Where’s this getting rid of deterrent thing coming from? They said they are not. Manifesto said they are not. Unions wont let them kill those jobs. Are some papers repetitively lying that they are, voters sucked into that lie?Floater said:https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-north-brexit-corbyn
Barry Russell is 82 and has voted Labour all his life, but this time he will be backing Johnson instead. He’s sceptical of Labour’s pledges and said Corbyn “has been a disaster.”
“I’m not a Conservative, but I’m voting Conservative,” he told BuzzFeed News. “He’s the only person to vote for…to keep Mr Corbyn out. That man’s an idiot. He wants to nationalise coal, electric, everything. He wants to get rid of our deterrent. He’s going to give millions for this, and millions for that — where’s he going to get all the money from?"
He added: “Whether we like it or not, like I say I’ve been Labour all my life, we’ve got to have the rich people, that’s where we get our money from.”
Part of the reason we need a strong, EU to rebuff and hold the balance, but made up of separate states.
No state should have been allowed to attain that size. Ideally they would be broken up - various points in history the moments were missed to do so (most recently the USSR dissolution).0 -
What’s he talking about . They’ve released the Scottish poll and it’s a horror show for the Union .CarlottaVance said:0 -
Hrrrm. Way too tired to try figure this out, so will wait for tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/12049285102776320030 -
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/nico67 said:
What’s he talking about . They’ve released the Scottish poll and it’s a horror show for the Union .CarlottaVance said:
Scotland (TBC)
Westminster Voting Intention
SNP:
CON:
LAB:
LD:
BXP:
GRN:
OTHER:
Independence Referendum Voting Intention
Full data tables will be available tomorrow.0 -
"General election: What to watch out for as the results trickle in
By Michael Thrasher, election analyst"
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-what-to-watch-out-for-as-the-results-trickle-in-118813440 -
I think there are many lower points still ahead.SirBenjamin said:Right...
Con 339
Lab 238
LD 13
Green 1
SNP 38
Plaid 3
DUP 8
SF 6
All 3
SDLP 1
Technically the biggest Tory majority since 1987, but it will feel a bit underwhelming. More a sense of relief than triumph.
Politics is absolutely horrible at the moment and nobody will emerge from this election with much credit. We will look back on this as a low point, regardless of the result.0 -
Scottish Tories vote little changed from 2017, so plenty of Scottish seats will stay blue, no worries for the Tories given their big UK lead too.MikeL said:If those are the Scottish numbers they are very bad for Con.
It implies huge tactical voting against Con.
1997 to 2015 there was no need to tactically vote against Con as they only won one seat anyway.
Then they win lots of seats in 2017. Result: Now lots of tactical voting suddenly happens to boot them out.
Very disappointing for Con - takes the gloss off the main Survation poll - and it's serious as if correct Con could lose a lot of Scottish seats.
This is also consistent with YouGov MRP which had them losing lots of Scottish seats.
After a great night of polling for Con, this is a big worry.
Armageddon for Scottish Labour though but SNP still polling well below 2015 levels0 -
Hardly, SNP still well below 2015 levels which was even before the Brexit vote.nico67 said:
What’s he talking about . They’ve released the Scottish poll and it’s a horror show for the Union .CarlottaVance said:
If Boris gets his majority as the main poll suggests he will of course ban indyref2 anyway, no more compromise with Nats with a Tory majority0 -
If I may politely disagree.Luckyguy1983 said:
It's a super article - she's a fantastic columnist.Byronic said:
It's an excellent and pointed article, but she uses way too many colons and semi-colons!Luckyguy1983 said:
Her restaurant reviews in The Spectator are wonderful.Andy_JS said:Interesting Tanya Gold article.
https://unherd.com/2019/12/how-labour-betrayed-their-supporters/
On that punctuational bombshell, nightynight
The author throughout presents the Corbynista's inner mindset as fact: " they don’t mind being vulnerable because vulnerable is their currency; they have plenty of pity for themselves", "their desire to renew the country mirrors their own search for self-renewal: their journey from brokenness", and so on.
These statements may well be true. But evidence is not offered to their truth and without this it becomes telepathy or cod-psychology: did she do a mind-meld on them?
I've seen this technique used before and it pisses me off every time. People telling me what their antagonist's motives are aren't doing journalism, they're writing a script.
1 -
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:3 -
I think some of the British left are horrible - the lump that has seized control of Labour - I suspect the majority of the British Left are as appalled and repulsed by this as we are - I just wish they'd get their act together and regain control of their party. I hope the electorate give them sufficient incentive to do so.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:1 -
@AndyJS, @CarlottaVance : I swear to goodness I could get by by just reading your posts: thank you for your hard work.1
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Front pages - no surprises - but slightly disappointed that the Guardian went for Corbyn in the end:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/12/what-the-papers-say-as-britain-goes-to-the-ballot-box?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of completely separate campaigners of the Social Workers Party is utterly disingenuous.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.0 -
Point of order, I believe the BNP support their fellow subjects of EHRC investigation.olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of the **Social Workers Party** is utterly disingenuous of you.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
1 -
Lol, I think not. They gush praise for Johnson regularly...brokenwheel said:
Point of order, I believe the BNP support their fellow subjects of EHRC investigation.olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of the **Social Workers Party** is utterly disingenuous of you.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
Unsurprising, since Johnson is himself a notorious anti-Semite...
He wrote of 'Jewish oligarchs' running the media.
Another book of his portrays a Jewish character, Sammy Katz, with a “proud nose and curly hair”, and paints him as a malevolent, stingy, snake-like Jewish businessman who exploits immigrant workers for profit.
Johnson also, as editor of the Spectator, against protestations, chose to publish articles by his mate Taki Theodoracopulos who boasted of being “an antisemite”, is a racist, and who wrote of the 'global Jewish conspiracy'. Alas Johnson could no longer help his mate, as Johnson was then infamously fired for plagiarism.
On top of that, the Tories are investigating, at least 5 counts of anti-Semitism amongst their current crop of candidates for MPs... But decisions not taken before the election. (Unlike SNP etc... who acted swiftly to deselect and disown).
0 -
I know at least Nick Griffin voiced his support for Corbyn last year.
Didn't they also campaign for Remain because at least they iz white innit?0 -
We can look at what is done in the Labour Party if you prefer...olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of completely separate campaigners of the Social Workers Party is utterly disingenuous.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
https://www.news.sky.com/story/amp/12-shocking-claims-of-abuse-in-leaked-labour-antisemitism-dossier-11879053At Labour's 2017 conference, a member said he shared a table with two delegates he did not know who agreed Jews were "subhuman", "didn't deserve to be allowed to define what constitutes antisemitism" and should be "grateful we don't make them eat bacon…
A party member said: "The only reason we have prostitutes in Seven Sisters is because of the Jews"
One person listed 22 examples of antisemitic abuse directed at him at local party meetings, including being called "a Tory Jew", "a child killer", "Zio scum", being told "he's good with money", "to shut the f*** up, Jew" and "Hitler was right"1 -
Erratum: I'm tired, and I'm confused by the sheer number of times Johnson's been called out. My bad.olm said:
Lol, I think not. They gush praise for Johnson regularly...brokenwheel said:
Point of order, I believe the BNP support their fellow subjects of EHRC investigation.olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of the **Social Workers Party** is utterly disingenuous of you.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
Unsurprising, since Johnson is himself a notorious anti-Semite...
He wrote of 'Jewish oligarchs' running the media.
Another book of his portrays a Jewish character, Sammy Katz, with a “proud nose and curly hair”, and paints him as a malevolent, stingy, snake-like Jewish businessman who exploits immigrant workers for profit.
Johnson also, as editor of the Spectator, against protestations, chose to publish articles by his mate Taki Theodoracopulos who boasted of being “an antisemite”, is a racist, and who wrote of the 'global Jewish conspiracy'. Alas Johnson could no longer help his mate, as Johnson was then infamously fired for plagiarism.
On top of that, the Tories are investigating, at least 5 counts of anti-Semitism amongst their current crop of candidates for MPs... But decisions not taken before the election. (Unlike SNP etc... who acted swiftly to deselect and disown).
So: Johnson was allegedly fired from Times for making up quotes, and not from Spectator.
His (known) plagiarism allegation was more recent, over the London Bridge terror incident.0 -
The BNP supports Brexit and the UK leaving the ECHR.brokenwheel said:I know at least Nick Griffin voiced his support for Corbyn last year.
Didn't they also campaign for Remain because at least they iz white innit?0 -
I'm not defending Labour for their dealing with anti-Semitism, I'm saying not to be disingenuous with the truth and tar them with actions of Social Workers Party, that is outrageous.Gabs3 said:
We can look at what is done in the Labour Party if you prefer...olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of completely separate campaigners of the Social Workers Party is utterly disingenuous.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
https://www.news.sky.com/story/amp/12-shocking-claims-of-abuse-in-leaked-labour-antisemitism-dossier-11879053At Labour's 2017 conference, a member said he shared a table with two delegates he did not know who agreed Jews were "subhuman", "didn't deserve to be allowed to define what constitutes antisemitism" and should be "grateful we don't make them eat bacon…
A party member said: "The only reason we have prostitutes in Seven Sisters is because of the Jews"
One person listed 22 examples of antisemitic abuse directed at him at local party meetings, including being called "a Tory Jew", "a child killer", "Zio scum", being told "he's good with money", "to shut the f*** up, Jew" and "Hitler was right"
As for the allegations against Labour, I'm not minimising them, I deplore the inaction of both Conservative and Labour on anti-Semitism.
I hope readers would also note that both Labour and Conservatives have failed to deal with anti-Semitism, and other prejudice, as effectively as they should. I don't know the comparative prevalence, but too much.
You mentioned a report on Labour, I've seen it, some of it is horrific, other parts or not anti-Semitism or are unfair, alas it's not independent, quite biased (I'm not suggesting they should write, but should be treated with due caution until an independent evaluation). Conservatives have also: let members back in, taken months to investigate, and currently not acting swiftly with prospective MPs, and I've heard shocking anecdotal reports about them too (as well as other prejudice being rife). An independent report is needed there too.
0 -
I'm not defending Labour for their dealing with anti-Semitism, I'm saying not to be disingenuous with the truth and tar them with actions of Social Workers Party, that is outrageous.olm said:Gabs3 said:
We can look at what is done in the Labour Party if you prefer...olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of completely separate campaigners of the Social Workers Party is utterly disingenuous.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
https://www.news.sky.com/story/amp/12-shocking-claims-of-abuse-in-leaked-labour-antisemitism-dossier-11879053At Labour's 2017 conference, a member said he shared a table with two delegates he did not know who agreed Jews were "subhuman", "didn't deserve to be allowed to define what constitutes antisemitism" and should be "grateful we don't make them eat bacon…
A party member said: "The only reason we have prostitutes in Seven Sisters is because of the Jews"
One person listed 22 examples of antisemitic abuse directed at him at local party meetings, including being called "a Tory Jew", "a child killer", "Zio scum", being told "he's good with money", "to shut the f*** up, Jew" and "Hitler was right"
I condemned the British Left as a whole. I did not specify Labour. Although the SWP and Labour are two peas in a pod these days. One blends easily into the other.0 -
Really? Memory must be failing me then, I was sure I read something at the time about at least some of their supporters doing it.rcs1000 said:
The BNP supports Brexit and the UK leaving the ECHR.brokenwheel said:I know at least Nick Griffin voiced his support for Corbyn last year.
Didn't they also campaign for Remain because at least they iz white innit?0 -
I agree on E Devon.rcs1000 said:
I am revising my forecast. I now think Conservative 376, Independent 1. I think that lady in East Devon makes it.rcs1000 said:Election day.
And now for my forecast.Conservative 377
Labour 183
LibDem 18
SNP 48
PC 4
Green 1
I also think PC gain Ynys Môn (very tight), and retain their others, making 5.
I also predict in N Ireland:
SF 7
DUP 7
All 2
SDLP 2
SF gain Belfast North
Alliance gain Belfast East & North Down
SDLP gain Belfast South & Foyle
DUP lose Belfast East, Belfast North, Belfast South
SF lose Foyle
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I condemned the British Left as a whole. I did not specify Labour. Although the SWP and Labour are two peas in a pod these days. One blends easily into the other.Gabs3 said:
I'm not defending Labour for their dealing with anti-Semitism, I'm saying not to be disingenuous with the truth and tar them with actions of Social Workers Party, that is outrageous.olm said:Gabs3 said:
We can look at what is done in the Labour Party if you prefer...olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of completely separate campaigners of the Social Workers Party is utterly disingenuous.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
https://www.news.sky.com/story/amp/12-shocking-claims-of-abuse-in-leaked-labour-antisemitism-dossier-11879053At Labour's 2017 conference, a member said he shared a table with two delegates he did not know who agreed Jews were "subhuman", "didn't deserve to be allowed to define what constitutes antisemitism" and should be "grateful we don't make them eat bacon…
A party member said: "The only reason we have prostitutes in Seven Sisters is because of the Jews"
One person listed 22 examples of antisemitic abuse directed at him at local party meetings, including being called "a Tory Jew", "a child killer", "Zio scum", being told "he's good with money", "to shut the f*** up, Jew" and "Hitler was right"
That's a fair point, I apologise. Though I stand by point between replace the word 'Labour' for the 'Left as a whole'. As I still think that's very unfair. Any more than tarring the right as a whole for the actions of EDL...0 -
I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.0
