politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls – almost
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BXP part of the other 3-4% if my maths correct0
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10th to 11th it says.KentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
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LD 9.3.…. Hmm0
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No BXP figure?
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Wythenshawe? Jesus wept.Mortimer said:
I don't know if you saw my anecdata from earlier - but from my experience and discussions this feels about right.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
E.G. I spoke to someone in Wythenshawe who told me that the Labour vote is cratering...especially on the council estates.0 -
Scotland figures?0
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They’ve sat down and crunched this. I get the feeling that the final survation and the final YouGov mrp are now seen as the ‘big events’. 11 point lead should be healthy majority, shouldn’t it?0
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Yesterday and todayKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
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Pollsters think they are somewhere between 9 and 15%....Nah...Its not 9..rerun the calcs lads.Richard_Nabavi said:LD 9.3.…. Hmm
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Roll on hung parliament exit poll!0
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I got 23 on Betfair for Lib Dems between 5.00-9.99%, for the overall UK result I think. Pretty pleased that I had a good feeling about the value in those odds, even if it doesn't actually happen.0
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So with that rather anticlimactic Survation pretty much showing what most other pollsters are showing, bar Comres, to bed.
Good luck to all candidates, canvassers and activists of whatever hue ahead of the big day tomorrow, get some rest now, you will need it3 -
Survation site down!
Those Scottish numbers must be sensational
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That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.0
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It depends how many votes are wasted in safe seats, for both parties.NorthernPowerhouse said:They’ve sat down and crunched this. I get the feeling that the final survation and the final YouGov mrp are now seen as the ‘big events’. 11 point lead should be healthy majority, shouldn’t it?
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Their Commodore 64 couldn't take it anymore.RobD said:Survation site down!
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Pleasingly very, very recent.HYUFD said:
Yesterday and todayKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....0 -
Sure, but so much has changed.TOPPING said:
In 2017 the day before the election the central case was for a 60 seat Cons majority and the odds on a Cons maj were 2/9.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
There were plenty of signals last time that Labour were doing better, from the odd poll showing Labour AHEAD, to plenty of polls showing Labour just behind (eg Survation), to the leadership figures showing Corbyn surging, to the anecdotal evidence of Corbymania, which was real and a thing. O Jeremy Corbyn....
This time, no polls show Labour ahead, no polls show Labour just behind, the leadership figures all show Corbyn still lagging badly, and there is zero anecdotal evidence for Corbymania, if anything it it is the opposite: evidence that Corbyn is toxic.
The Tories are gonna win0 -
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
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The way my betting is going recently, I will lose my LD10-19 seats bet on the low side.Richard_Nabavi said:LD 9.3.…. Hmm
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Really, guys, it ain't over till 1. It's over and 2. The fat lady sings. So let's not start sucking each other's...etc.0
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Last 3 days. Finished at 10pm this eveningKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
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Two days; 10-11 Dec.Richard_Tyndall said:
Last 3 days. Finished at 10pm this eveningKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
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LibDems on 9.3? That's very close to single digit seat numbers, which would be good for me (£) but rather bad for UK politics I think.
WillS0 -
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?FrancisUrquhart said:The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
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To round off, on UNS Survation would give 44 Tory gains from Labour and not a single Tory loss to the LDsHYUFD said:0 -
Said that in 2015FrancisUrquhart said:
Pollsters think they are somewhere between 9 and 15%....Nah...Its not 9..rerun the calcs lads.Richard_Nabavi said:LD 9.3.…. Hmm
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I think what this Survation shows again is Remainers are switching to Labour. The question is by how much.0
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Reassuringly recent.Richard_Tyndall said:
Last 3 days. Finished at 10pm this eveningKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
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The tragedy for them is that Corbyn has always been a Eurosceptic. It's bad luck for Remainers that just when they needed an opposition leader to be emphatically pro-EU they got Jezza.FrancisUrquhart said:I think what this Survation shows again is Remainers are switching to Labour. The question is by how much.
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In Boris tummy. They were baked in a pie very early on.Andy_JS said:
3% is available with those numbers.Barnesian said:
Where is the Brexit party?brokenwheel said:0 -
Yes but Nick Clegg was absolutely toxic and old Wallace wasn't, more just shrug, a bit crap.argyllrs said:
Said that in 2015FrancisUrquhart said:
Pollsters think they are somewhere between 9 and 15%....Nah...Its not 9..rerun the calcs lads.Richard_Nabavi said:LD 9.3.…. Hmm
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Sounds about right. In Wythenshawe and Sale East 20 years ago Wythenshawe was red and Sale East was blue. Now I'd say there's no real split. Wythenshawe has become much less Labour, but Sale East much more so.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wythenshawe? Jesus wept.Mortimer said:
I don't know if you saw my anecdata from earlier - but from my experience and discussions this feels about right.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
E.G. I spoke to someone in Wythenshawe who told me that the Labour vote is cratering...especially on the council estates.
I'd still say that overall there's no chance of Con getting anywhere near a victory here though! If Lab were to lose Wythenshawe they'd be looking at sub-100 seats. Not going to happen today.0 -
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 30 -
With Survation in, my Swingometer based on the polling average is now showing a Conservative majority of 2-44.
LD are getting hit hard by voters going Labour.0 -
Oh you said CON I was on about gapbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 30 -
No not lead you plonker, the Tory vote share. Read the post I was quoting.bigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 30 -
Is anyone manning a polling station tomorrow?0
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That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 30 -
Only two polling companies, I think, have a Tory lead now which is greater than the one they recorded at the beginning of the campaign; BMG (up 1) and Survation (up 3). Nice to see Survation continuing to buck the trend a little.
WillS.0 -
At these levels tactical voting won't do much, maybe reduce the Conservative seats by 5 max which I already take into account.egg said:
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?FrancisUrquhart said:The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
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Its really just the same. Its ~10%. Tories have squeezed Brexit, Labour have squeezed Lib Dems.wills66 said:Only two polling companies, I think, have a Tory lead now which is greater than the one they recorded at the beginning of the campaign; BMG (up 1) and Survation (up 3). Nice to see Survation continuing to buck the trend a little.
WillS.0 -
To be fair to Swinson the Lib Dems don't do well when there is clear blue / red water between the two major parties.FF43 said:
If she survives the election, I have a feeling Swinson would make a decent leader of the Lib Dems. She made mistakes but those were largely due to inexperience I think. Different politics but she reminds me a bit of Margaret Thatcher. And objectively she would make a better prime minister than either Johnson or Corbyn. And by the way I am not voting for her.Andy_JS said:"We’ve missed our chance but I won’t quit, says Jo Swinson" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/weve-missed-our-chance-but-i-wont-quit-says-jo-swinson-dl2p8wbbz
They also need a period when the Tories have been in power for a long time as their success of taking Labour seats has historically been minimal.
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Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.0 -
This is the final Barnesian model.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
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Jeremy Thorpe in 1970 wasn't yet that toxic, but the Liberals still got 8% and 6 seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes but Nick Clegg was absolutely toxic and old Wallace wasn't, more just shrug, a bit crap.argyllrs said:
Said that in 2015FrancisUrquhart said:
Pollsters think they are somewhere between 9 and 15%....Nah...Its not 9..rerun the calcs lads.Richard_Nabavi said:LD 9.3.…. Hmm
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Have my partner's lad coming over to do an all nighter for the election. He has started 'A' Level politics this year. If we were to try to go and watch the local count, would we be allowed in?0
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And not even you believe that 😉.HYUFD said:
To round off, on UNS Survation would give 44 Tory gains from Labour and not a single Tory loss to the LDsHYUFD said:
“ Final Call‘. Feels like pundits on grand national day, and with no more exact science if they are this far apart.
OGH said earlier lot of nervousness around polling companies with the final call. Why? We don’t expect them to get it right. If one of them flukes it they may dine out on gold standard status for a while, but lose the next game badly they are back where they are now.0 -
The Survation poll seems to have given the Betfair market some confidence.0
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I was literally in Rome enjoying a posho rooftop party for the 2017 election. There were half naked dancers and the like. Then the exit poll came in and I felt shocked for about 10 minutes, then I went back to the Trentodoc wine and foie gras bruschettaCookie said:
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
Strange days. It was like a Fellini film.0 -
Final(?) ELBOW of the current campaign: 13 polls with fieldwork end-dates 8th to 11th December:
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.8 (+0.9)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.1 (NC)
Con lead 9.3 (-0.8)
Comparisons with ELBOW week-ending Sunday 8th.1 -
Thanks for updating the model over the last few weeks.Barnesian said:This is the final Barnesian model.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing2 -
Seems Survation have rebooted the Commodore 64, but still not signs of the Scottish poll.0
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How much Impact you reckon it had in 97?speedy2 said:
At these levels tactical voting won't do much, maybe reduce the Conservative seats by 5 max which I already take into account.egg said:
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?FrancisUrquhart said:The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
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Survation forecast 2017 (and 2015), Trafalgar Group had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Opinium and ICM had Leave ahead in 2016, not a single pollster now has Corbyn anywhere near a majority or even most seats.KentRising said:
Pleasingly very, very recent.HYUFD said:
Yesterday and todayKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament0 -
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.egg said:
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?FrancisUrquhart said:The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
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If the Tories don't win this would surely be the greatest polling disaster EVER???
Can anyone think of a worse result?
At least in 2017 some pollsters were close to the voting shares.0 -
Ipsos MORI tomorrow morning, Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:Final(?) ELBOW of the current campaign: 13 polls with fieldwork end-dates 8th to 11th December:
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.8 (+0.9)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.1 (NC)
Con lead 9.3 (-0.4)
Comparisons with ELBOW week-ending Sunday 8th.0 -
And there were people starting to think you weren't Sean T.....Byronic said:
I was literally in Rome enjoying a posho rooftop party for the 2017 election. There were half naked dancers and the like. Then the exit poll came in and I felt shocked for about 10 minutes, then I went back to the Trentodoc wine and foie gras bruschettaCookie said:
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
Strange days. It was like a Fellini film.0 -
What about Centrist Phone, he reckons the real lead is only 2.8% ;-)Byronic said:If the Tories don't win this would surely be the greatest polling disaster EVER???
Can anyone think of a worse result?
At least in 2017 some pollsters were close to the voting shares.1 -
Election day.
And now for my forecast.Conservative 377
Labour 183
LibDem 18
SNP 48
PC 4
Green 11 -
Hence the "Final(?)"AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Ipsos MORI tomorrow morning, Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:Final(?) ELBOW of the current campaign: 13 polls with fieldwork end-dates 8th to 11th December:
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.8 (+0.9)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.1 (NC)
Con lead 9.3 (-0.8)
Comparisons with ELBOW week-ending Sunday 8th.
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Odd that the black line is trending sharply down at the end when the final black circles are above the trendline.RobD said:Just one more poll to add:
https://imgur.com/w9FCvcr
Is that due to older ones falling out?0 -
Ah, I haven't felt this good since 7th June 2017. 3
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Its all plausible BarnesianBarnesian said:This is the final Barnesian model.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
If its 325 do we go to a penalty shootout?
GN all remember LAB/SNP can still form a majority government. We must vote CON to beat the enemy within!
See you later today
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I think it would be a great mistake not to elevate him. The government should be magnanimous in victory.funkhauser said:0 -
Could be, it could also be a bug. Let me dig.Philip_Thompson said:
Odd that the black line is trending sharply down at the end when the final black circles are above the trendline.RobD said:Just one more poll to add:
https://imgur.com/w9FCvcr
Is that due to older ones falling out?1 -
325! What a result.Barnesian said:This is the final Barnesian model.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing1 -
Putney is on a knife edge. It could be a Labour gain from the Tories.Barnesian said:This is the final Barnesian model.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
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NoBenpointer said:Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH2r-sNjQs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_0x6oaDmI2 -
I’ll be up with sparrowsfart for the elbow.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hence the "Final(?)"AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Ipsos MORI tomorrow morning, Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:Final(?) ELBOW of the current campaign: 13 polls with fieldwork end-dates 8th to 11th December:
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.8 (+0.9)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.1 (NC)
Con lead 9.3 (-0.8)
Comparisons with ELBOW week-ending Sunday 8th.1 -
I hope you're right, though I can't see that many Cons and so many Lib Dems simultaneously. One or the other.rcs1000 said:Election day.
And now for my forecast.Conservative 377
Labour 183
LibDem 18
SNP 48
PC 4
Green 10 -
Top analysis as ever Sunil hope the ELBOW comes in!Sunil_Prasannan said:Final(?) ELBOW of the current campaign: 13 polls with fieldwork end-dates 8th to 11th December:
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.8 (+0.9)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.1 (NC)
Con lead 9.3 (-0.8)
Comparisons with ELBOW week-ending Sunday 8th.3 -
More power to your ELBOW, then.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hence the "Final(?)"AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Ipsos MORI tomorrow morning, Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:Final(?) ELBOW of the current campaign: 13 polls with fieldwork end-dates 8th to 11th December:
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.8 (+0.9)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.1 (NC)
Con lead 9.3 (-0.8)
Comparisons with ELBOW week-ending Sunday 8th.2 -
Tactical voting clearly exists, or the LDs would have exactly one seat in Scotland.Philip_Thompson said:
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.egg said:
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?FrancisUrquhart said:The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
Indeed, the story of Scotland in the 1979 to 1997 period is of most seats coalescing around a single non-Tory candidate.
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Thanks. Walking distance so will go and try.HYUFD said:
The gallery maybe, you need a ticket for the main countargyllrs said:Have my partner's lad coming over to do an all nighter for the election. He has started 'A' Level politics this year. If we were to try to go and watch the local count, would we be allowed in?
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So 2-3 up on the poll leads last time. Enough even if labour do better then the polls.RobD said:Just one more poll to add:
https://imgur.com/w9FCvcr0 -
Polling companies amazingly seem to be able to brush off getting things terribly wrong, reboot with a new improved model and a few years later we are all still here believing them....oh that will set me off again.Byronic said:If the Tories don't win this would surely be the greatest polling disaster EVER???
Can anyone think of a worse result?
At least in 2017 some pollsters were close to the voting shares.0 -
I will be interested to see the £spend per seat won when the dust settles0
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But the MRP was the gold standard last time around, and by the MRP we are within MOE of HP.HYUFD said:
Survation forecast 2017 (and 2015), Trafalgar Group had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Opinium and ICM had Leave ahead in 2016, not a single pollster now has Corbyn anywhere near a majority or even most seats.KentRising said:
Pleasingly very, very recent.HYUFD said:
Yesterday and todayKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament
I am not comfortable. Far from it. But at least I am feeling less despondent than I was last night.0 -
I don't think tactical voting is anywhere near as big a deal as people make out.rcs1000 said:
Tactical voting clearly exists, or the LDs would have exactly one seat in Scotland.Philip_Thompson said:
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.egg said:
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?FrancisUrquhart said:The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
Indeed, the story of Scotland in the 1979 to 1997 period is of most seats coalescing around a single non-Tory candidate.
I do think the Lib Dems are good at putting their effort into targetting a few seats. That's not the same thing.0 -
1
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The only thing was that the first MRP was more accurate than the last one. It is really because basically all the other pollsters were shit that MRP got god like status.Cookie said:
But the MRP was the gold standard last time around, and by the MRP we are within MOE of HP.HYUFD said:
Survation forecast 2017 (and 2015), Trafalgar Group had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Opinium and ICM had Leave ahead in 2016, not a single pollster now has Corbyn anywhere near a majority or even most seats.KentRising said:
Pleasingly very, very recent.HYUFD said:
Yesterday and todayKentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament
I am not comfortable. Far from it. But at least I am feeling less despondent than I was last night.0 -
No they dont. Labour is simply coalescong the Remain vote.FrancisUrquhart said:Lib Dem 9%...nahhh...really...hmmm..
Survation I think you need to turn it off and on again.0 -
Looks like you are right, some good polls dropping out.RobD said:
Could be, it could also be a bug. Let me dig.Philip_Thompson said:
Odd that the black line is trending sharply down at the end when the final black circles are above the trendline.RobD said:Just one more poll to add:
https://imgur.com/w9FCvcr
Is that due to older ones falling out?
These are the Tory leads for the last three days, and the average at the end.
[ 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10.8 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. ] 9.9
[ 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10.8 12. 12. 13. ] 9.4
[ 5. 6. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10.8 12. 12. ] 9.30 -
Correct.Brom said:
That’s a Labour rise but not at the expense of Con. Lab need Con switchers a lot more than they need Lib Demsbigjohnowls said:
Survation down by 3FrancisUrquhart said:
The only poll that saw the Tories down on a previous poll was taken right in the middle of the hospital photo drama. All the rest are solid / up.Brom said:That’s good, wanted at least 11 but pleased Tory vote share holding firm. No evidence of Con to Lab switchers in any poll tonight.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.0 -
MRP has it going Labour by 3% along with Chipping Barnet.Barnesian said:
Putney is on a knife edge. It could be a Labour gain from the Tories.Barnesian said:This is the final Barnesian model.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=00 -
We have a system that works so incredibly well. Why risk it? Let’s innovate. Let’s have ballot papers with barcodes that facilitates electronic counting etc.viewcode said:
NoBenpointer said:Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH2r-sNjQs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_0x6oaDmI
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If it's not 9% then the Labour goes down. Which I think is unlikely. It will be closer to 9% than 15%FrancisUrquhart said:
Pollsters think they are somewhere between 9 and 15%....Nah...Its not 9..rerun the calcs lads.Richard_Nabavi said:LD 9.3.…. Hmm
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Still room for the CORBYNISTA swing!
Get out there and vote CON!0 -
I don't disagree, but I think 9% is still too low. Jezza is still toxic to many and so I think they will get more than that....especially as in your Bath's of the world they will vote en-masse Lib Dem.nunu2 said:
No they dont. Labour is simply coalescong the Remain vote.FrancisUrquhart said:Lib Dem 9%...nahhh...really...hmmm..
Survation I think you need to turn it off and on again.0 -
Her restaurant reviews in The Spectator are wonderful.Andy_JS said:Interesting Tanya Gold article.
https://unherd.com/2019/12/how-labour-betrayed-their-supporters/1 -
Fortunately we can use data to make a call on this. How different at a constituency level are list votes in Scotland and consituency votes? If - for some seats - they are significantly different, then that suggests there is tactical voting. People choose at the list level who they really support, and then choose tactically for someone with a chance of winning at the constituency level.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think tactical voting is anywhere near as big a deal as people make out.rcs1000 said:
Tactical voting clearly exists, or the LDs would have exactly one seat in Scotland.Philip_Thompson said:
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.egg said:
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?FrancisUrquhart said:The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
Indeed, the story of Scotland in the 1979 to 1997 period is of most seats coalescing around a single non-Tory candidate.
I do think the Lib Dems are good at putting their effort into targetting a few seats. That's not the same thing.0 -
Agree, if it was anyone else, but after the games he's played over the past three years with parliamentary procedure,the serious bullying allegations that were not properly investigated & his blatant bias, No.rcs1000 said:
I think it would be a great mistake not to elevate him. The government should be magnanimous in victory.funkhauser said:0
