politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls – almost
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I don’t know what vegetable I would be in a salad, but ide make sure I was properly dressedMarqueeMark said:
Because people are prepared to drop him in boiling water?YBarddCwsc said:
Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?Floater said:0 -
But he can’t hold a candle to Boris.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn gets on my wick....kle4 said:
What on earth is that asterisk doing in that headline? Why explain the joke/metaphor?BigJoeCanoe said:
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"We’ve missed our chance but I won’t quit, says Jo Swinson" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/weve-missed-our-chance-but-i-wont-quit-says-jo-swinson-dl2p8wbbz0 -
How dishonest to make the 25p cheaper sticker look like the price! Just the kind of thing Boris would do.squareroot2 said:
It doesn't. Its 55p in the UK . Its says its 25p cheaper than its rivals...FF43 said:
I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!BigJoeCanoe said:1 -
Should frighten a few into voting Tory...FF43 said:Surprised to see the Morning Star given away free by the exits at my local Tesco store tonight. Wouldn't have thought Tesco's kind of capitalism would chime with that paper's editorial.
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It will be out at midnight. Could see LAB going ahead0
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Has she been on the funny fags again?Andy_JS said:"We’ve missed our chance but I won’t quit, says Jo Swinson" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/weve-missed-our-chance-but-i-wont-quit-says-jo-swinson-dl2p8wbbz0 -
Asked what animal he might be, he said: "A lobster - because they live forever. Occasionally I have been known to pinch a bit."YBarddCwsc said:
Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?Floater said:
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So it begins
Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.
On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.
As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?0 -
One more forecast, (based off a 6.5% lead).
https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/12049082242159656960 -
It's fairly harmful even in moderation... so perhaps there is a minimum price per unit?FF43 said:
I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!BigJoeCanoe said:1 -
Right...
Con 339
Lab 238
LD 13
Green 1
SNP 38
Plaid 3
DUP 8
SF 6
All 3
SDLP 1
Technically the biggest Tory majority since 1987, but it will feel a bit underwhelming. More a sense of relief than triumph.
Politics is absolutely horrible at the moment and nobody will emerge from this election with much credit. We will look back on this as a low point, regardless of the result.
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People said there would be loads of spoilt ballots at the Euros too; there weren't.Scrapheap_as_was said:
If you spoil your ballot does that still count for turnout? I'm expecting loads more than normal this election...YBarddCwsc said:
I am helping those betting on a low turnout.MarqueeMark said:
Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?YBarddCwsc said:
This is unduly prim.viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.0 -
I can't see the Tories going below 310 seats which means a Corbyn premiership isn't possible (assuming the Unionists refuse to support him).0
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Anyone any thoughts as to whether Lab or Con will favour high turnout tomorrow?0
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As I quickly walked the dog I was hit with a very pleasant thought.
Corbyn might be gone soon3 -
That's better than the English edition's.BigJoeCanoe said:0 -
Labour...means lots of yuff coming out.noisywinter said:Anyone any thoughts as to whether Lab or Con will favour high turnout tomorrow?
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Come on Survation. I wanted an early night tonight to prepare for tomorrow’s all-nighter.0
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Seeing as Swinson's main problem is her being tainted by being part of the Cameron govt, it won't help to replace her with Davey. Need to pick someone new, eg. Moran.noisywinter said:Thinking of next LD leader....its probably going to be Davey isn't it?
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If she survives the election, I have a feeling Swinson would make a decent leader of the Lib Dems. She made mistakes but those were largely due to inexperience I think. Different politics but she reminds me a bit of Margaret Thatcher. And objectively she would make a better prime minister than either Johnson or Corbyn. And by the way I am not voting for her.Andy_JS said:"We’ve missed our chance but I won’t quit, says Jo Swinson" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/weve-missed-our-chance-but-i-wont-quit-says-jo-swinson-dl2p8wbbz0 -
Yes, on Tuesday night.Alistair said:Have people seen the update YouGov MRP tables
https://twitter.com/benlauderdale/status/1204523163079630856?s=19
The change in Scotland is just absolutely bananas
The previous version for comparison
https://yg-infographics-data.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ZAfbtHgj42wx4reHnaMtbBamoKdMxkFMpz4gnWMjiZCUAxDX66MsCB38K/2019_data/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release.pdf
What strikes me is how the apparently innocuous figure of a national average of 2.9% Brexit Party vote translates into large concentrations of BXP votes in several Leave seats where the Conservatives are losing by less than half the BXP vote share. See pages 23-37 of the table.
e.g. for some of the double figure BXP polling
Burnley, Lab 7% ahead, BXP polling 15%
Hartlepool, Lab 8% ahead, BXP 22%
Hyndburn, Lab 2% ahead, BXP 10%
Leigh, Lab 4% ahead, BXP 11%
NW Durham Lab 5% ahead, BXP 11%
Redcar Lab 5% ahead, BXP 14%
Stoke N Lab 2% ahead, BXP 10%
and there are loads more where the BXP could make all the difference even without getting into double figures
e.g. Workington Lab 2% ahead, BXP 8%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uk714vkjy3/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release (5).pdf
If Brexit isn't delivered, Farage really will be remembered as the one who killed it.1 -
Crustaceans are only allowed to be Lord Mandelbrot. Says Prezza.IshmaelZ said:
Asked what animal he might be, he said: "A lobster - because they live forever. Occasionally I have been known to pinch a bit."YBarddCwsc said:
Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?Floater said:0 -
That's very close to my expectation. And yes, I agree with the idea that this will be the nadir.SirBenjamin said:Right...
Con 339
Lab 238
LD 13
Green 1
SNP 38
Plaid 3
DUP 8
SF 6
All 3
SDLP 1
Technically the biggest Tory majority since 1987, but it will feel a bit underwhelming. More a sense of relief than triumph.
Politics is absolutely horrible at the moment and nobody will emerge from this election with much credit. We will look back on this as a low point, regardless of the result.
We will Brexit, democracy will be saved, Corbyn will go..... and maybe a long, slow healing process will begin. At last.
That is my Christmas prayer.0 -
It's behind one of the unopened hotel doors. Wanna swap?egg said:So it begins
Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.
On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.
As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?0 -
I think Survation need to upgrade their hardware....what are they using their models on a Commodore 64?0
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The $2 gets subtracted, not added, because it is no different from the $1 refund. Not a huge improvement on the poetry.egg said:So it begins
Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.
On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.
As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?2 -
Where did then bellhop get the extra £2 to allow you to add it to the total twice :-) .egg said:So it begins
Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.
On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.
As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?0 -
When it all gets too much I pour a whisky and watch Mad Men.0
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so what’s the recommended drink and snacks for tomorrow night?0
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Better to think that the manager got $25, the guests $1 each, the bellhop $2 & go to bed!egg said:So it begins
Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.
On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.
As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?
But I think the answer is that the $27 paid includes the bellhops $2, so adding them together is the putaway0 -
where is survation dammit0
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Depends on the exit poll....any talk of a hung parliament and I will be on the hard stuff.kjohnw1 said:so what’s the recommended drink and snacks for tomorrow night?
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Pollyanna on steroids.Dadge said:
Seeing as Swinson's main problem is her being tainted by being part of the Cameron govt, it won't help to replace her with Davey. Need to pick someone new, eg. Moran.noisywinter said:Thinking of next LD leader....its probably going to be Davey isn't it?
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under ten mins to go
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Con ... lots of brexit voters from 2016 coming out for one last hurrahFrancisUrquhart said:
Labour...means lots of yuff coming out.noisywinter said:Anyone any thoughts as to whether Lab or Con will favour high turnout tomorrow?
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What is Survation shows a 4 point lead? OR 3? 2?
GULP0 -
I book flights....Byronic said:What is Survation shows a 4 point lead? OR 3? 2?
GULP0 -
1.360
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0
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What if it shows 14?Byronic said:What is Survation shows a 4 point lead? OR 3? 2?
GULP
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It would be better for Labour in the long run if they lose 100 seats tomorrow rather than just 40 or 50 IMO.Byronic said:
That's very close to my expectation. And yes, I agree with the idea that this will be the nadir.SirBenjamin said:Right...
Con 339
Lab 238
LD 13
Green 1
SNP 38
Plaid 3
DUP 8
SF 6
All 3
SDLP 1
Technically the biggest Tory majority since 1987, but it will feel a bit underwhelming. More a sense of relief than triumph.
Politics is absolutely horrible at the moment and nobody will emerge from this election with much credit. We will look back on this as a low point, regardless of the result.
We will Brexit, democracy will be saved, Corbyn will go..... and maybe a long, slow healing process will begin. At last.
That is my Christmas prayer.1 -
1.370
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The guests paid $27, of which $25 went to the manager and $2 to the bellhop.egg said:So it begins
Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.
On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.
As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?
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My rumoured Survation result was modded??
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I voted for Thatcher. She ain't no Thatcher.FF43 said:
If she survives the election, I have a feeling Swinson would make a decent leader of the Lib Dems. She made mistakes but those were largely due to inexperience I think. Different politics but she reminds me a bit of Margaret Thatcher. And objectively she would make a better prime minister than either Johnson or Corbyn. And by the way I am not voting for her.Andy_JS said:"We’ve missed our chance but I won’t quit, says Jo Swinson" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/weve-missed-our-chance-but-i-wont-quit-says-jo-swinson-dl2p8wbbz0 -
Hopefully there is going to be a prediction thread tomorrow morning.Andy_JS said:
It would be better for Labour in the long run if they lose 100 seats tomorrow rather than just 40 or 50 IMO.Byronic said:
That's very close to my expectation. And yes, I agree with the idea that this will be the nadir.SirBenjamin said:Right...
Con 339
Lab 238
LD 13
Green 1
SNP 38
Plaid 3
DUP 8
SF 6
All 3
SDLP 1
Technically the biggest Tory majority since 1987, but it will feel a bit underwhelming. More a sense of relief than triumph.
Politics is absolutely horrible at the moment and nobody will emerge from this election with much credit. We will look back on this as a low point, regardless of the result.
We will Brexit, democracy will be saved, Corbyn will go..... and maybe a long, slow healing process will begin. At last.
That is my Christmas prayer.0 -
I just saw a reference to Survation with
CON 41
LAB 40
And chucked a lung. Then I realised it was the poll from 2017
FWIW the rumoured result showed a Tory lead of 92 -
It would be better for the country in the long run....it would hopefully mean the end of Corbyn and the madness.Andy_JS said:
It would be better for Labour in the long run if they lose 100 seats tomorrow rather than just 40 or 50 IMO.Byronic said:
That's very close to my expectation. And yes, I agree with the idea that this will be the nadir.SirBenjamin said:Right...
Con 339
Lab 238
LD 13
Green 1
SNP 38
Plaid 3
DUP 8
SF 6
All 3
SDLP 1
Technically the biggest Tory majority since 1987, but it will feel a bit underwhelming. More a sense of relief than triumph.
Politics is absolutely horrible at the moment and nobody will emerge from this election with much credit. We will look back on this as a low point, regardless of the result.
We will Brexit, democracy will be saved, Corbyn will go..... and maybe a long, slow healing process will begin. At last.
That is my Christmas prayer.0 -
Jesus, what are you doing quoting that. On here. Right now. !!!Byronic said:I just saw a reference to Survation with
CON 41
LAB 40
And chucked a lung. Then I realised it was the poll from 2017
FWIW the rumoured result showed a Tory lead of 90 -
I wanted you to share my painKentRising said:
Jesus, what are you doing quoting that. On here. Right now. !!!Byronic said:I just saw a reference to Survation with
CON 41
LAB 40
And chucked a lung. Then I realised it was the poll from 2017
FWIW the rumoured result showed a Tory lead of 9
Scary, isn't it?
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Somebody is forcing the price down on Tory OM...Still big money going in.0
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And there will be sod all he can do about it.Andy_JS said:0 -
11 lead0
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It's up, and you PB Tories might need to stop panicking...
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/0 -
YAAAAASSSSSSSbrokenwheel said:0 -
Tories on 45!!!!brokenwheel said:0 -
Double diamond standard!0
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44.5 / 33.7
Go to bed, everyone.0 -
bIG tORY wIN INCOMING1
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duplicate0
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44.5 Con 33.7 Lab0
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Tories on 45 again...as some bloke who once hid in a freezer like to say, cripes...0
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0
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Wait.
There's no Brexit Party in that poll??0 -
What about BXP?0
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What about Scotland 0
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Where is the Brexit party?brokenwheel said:0 -
There is absolutely no reason to believe that a single one of those BXP votes would go to the Conservatives if the BXP were not standing. Indeed the most likely outcome is those votes would go back to Labour and increase their lead in those seats/Wulfrun_Phil said:
Yes, on Tuesday night.Alistair said:Have people seen the update YouGov MRP tables
https://twitter.com/benlauderdale/status/1204523163079630856?s=19
The change in Scotland is just absolutely bananas
The previous version for comparison
https://yg-infographics-data.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ZAfbtHgj42wx4reHnaMtbBamoKdMxkFMpz4gnWMjiZCUAxDX66MsCB38K/2019_data/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release.pdf
What strikes me is how the apparently innocuous figure of a national average of 2.9% Brexit Party vote translates into large concentrations of BXP votes in several Leave seats where the Conservatives are losing by less than half the BXP vote share. See pages 23-37 of the table.
e.g. for some of the double figure BXP polling
Burnley, Lab 7% ahead, BXP polling 15%
Hartlepool, Lab 8% ahead, BXP 22%
Hyndburn, Lab 2% ahead, BXP 10%
Leigh, Lab 4% ahead, BXP 11%
NW Durham Lab 5% ahead, BXP 11%
Redcar Lab 5% ahead, BXP 14%
Stoke N Lab 2% ahead, BXP 10%
and there are loads more where the BXP could make all the difference even without getting into double figures
e.g. Workington Lab 2% ahead, BXP 8%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uk714vkjy3/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release (5).pdf
If Brexit isn't delivered, Farage really will be remembered as the one who killed it.2 -
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I don't think the LDs will do as badly as 9.3%.0
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When was this poll undertaken??0
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All over, bar 9 hours of shouting tomorrow night.
Time to unmute Owen Jones, Ash Sarkar, Aaron Bastani, 'Rachael' Swindon etc.1 -
Must be on 3, as those add up to 97.0
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Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just checked that I saw the right figures this time!
l: 1 -
BXT 0RobinWiggs said:0 -
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...0
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Tue and Wed.KentRising said:When was this poll undertaken??
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LD 9.3 has a lovely rhythmn to it1
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Goodnight sleep tight x0
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I will take great delight in watching bercows face if it’s a Tory landslideAndy_JS said:0 -
Lib Dem 9%...nahhh...really...hmmm..
Survation I think you need to turn it off and on again.0 -
9% for the LDs, though.HYUFD said:Tory lead 11% with Survation
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204913852015620098?s=20
What a sickener.0 -
3% is available with those numbers.Barnesian said:
Where is the Brexit party?brokenwheel said:0
