Skip to content
Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls – almost

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls – almost

politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).

Read the full story here


«134567

Comments

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    First
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited December 2019
    Early to the party, but couldn't elbow Big G out of the way.

    2nd, like West Brom.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Turd, like the DUP
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited December 2019
    So G, tories over 40 - maybe 43. What do you think for Labour?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Given the betfair market is stuck at 1.38, I am guessing Survation is going to be another 9-10% jobbie.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Where's survation?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    camel said:

    Early to the party, but couldn't elbow Big G out of the way.

    2nd, like West Brom.

    Sorry about that but time to call it a day

    This time tomorrow maybe we will know

    Anyway have a pleasant nights rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Average barely moved. Should be enough for the Tories if accurate, so a lot of pollsters need to be quite some way out for Corbyn.

    Well, at least we should be rid of one of Boris or Corbyn soon, right?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Ave_it said:

    Where's survation?

    +14 nailed on! Surely?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    YouGov didn't sneak out while we weren't watching, did it? :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Floater said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    tyson said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Tonight's polls

    Opinium Con 45/Lab 33/LD 12 (Con lead +12)
    Qriously 43/30/12 (+13)
    NCPolitics 43/33/12 (+10)
    BMG 41/32/14 (+9)
    Panelbase 43/34/11 (+9)
    ComRes 41/36/12 (+5)
    Kantar 44/32/13 (+12)
    Deltapoll 45/35/10 (+10)

    Mean Con lead: 10% exactly

    Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.

    Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?

    2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
    What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...
    This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.

    I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.

    I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either



    He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kind
    He is correct about the Conservatives becoming an English nationalist party though. I used to feel that the Westminster govt represented me no matter which party was in charge. Labour no longer seems to give a d*mn about anything and the Tories have become an English party.

    I am not English. I am British/Irish, but I feel dispossessed.
    It's possible, though I consider unlikely, that the Tories will have their highest number of seats in Scotland since 1983 and their best Welsh result ever.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Ave_it said:

    Where's survation?

    Still crunching their numbers. Telling us via Twitter that the fieldwork only ended an hour ago.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    The Tory lead in Survation at the start of the campaign was 6%. I can’t see it being 14% but I’d take 11 or 12% for sure
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Black_Rook said:

    Ave_it said:

    Where's survation?

    Still crunching their numbers. Telling us via Twitter that the fieldwork only ended an hour ago.
    Wow thats some close to election polling
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited December 2019
    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    I'm going for 24
    camel said:

    So G, tories over 40 - maybe 43. What do you think for Labour?

    Tories 24 I reckon...a bit of tactical voting and a few remainia strongholds bucking the national trends.

    But we're definitely coming out of Europe sadly...oh well.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,538
    Survation are going to release both a GB wide poll and a Scotland only poll.

    https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Yessss - calm down , calm down you lot :-)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,667
    edited December 2019
    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Presumably we will now get a rapid Tory enquiry into alleged racism.

    I wonder if the EHCR Report will be the thing to finish Mr Corbyn. Quite ironic if the Whiter-than-White individual turned out to be a classic scapegoat, which was traditionally the newborn innocent.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It's not the Sun's best front page to be honest.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    nunu2 said:

    Survation are going to release both a GB wide poll and a Scotland only poll.

    https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/

    KLAXON functioning normally. :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited December 2019
    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
  • NobidexxNobidexx Posts: 71
    camel said:

    Ave_it said:

    Where's survation?

    +14 nailed on! Surely?
    Unlikely imo. I'm going to bet on +11.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
    But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    Average barely moved. Should be enough for the Tories if accurate, so a lot of pollsters need to be quite some way out for Corbyn.

    Well, at least we should be rid of one of Boris or Corbyn soon, right?

    As the header says, barring a polling disaster the Tories look set for some kind of majority (caveat: a Con-Lab gap of less than 5% starts to tend increasingly towards a Hung Parliament, and that's within MoE for ICM and ComRes.) But unless the final two polls deliver a major upset, we are not heading for any of those Con +1 or Lab +2 kind of numbers that some of them were offering up at the end of the 2017 campaign.

    I would be a lot happier to see the back of Corbyn if I didn't suspect that Labour will simply elect a replacement that's as bonkers, if not more so, but without the Hamas/IRA/Press TV baggage.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,538
    RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    Survation are going to release both a GB wide poll and a Scotland only poll.

    https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/

    KLAXON functioning normally. :p
    Wasnt there supposed to be a Panelbase Scottish poll? @Alistar?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
    But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?
    It doesn't matter. It is clear enough of the British public like the sound of Corbynomonics.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
    Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,361
    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,361
    edited December 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    2024 AD
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,538
    RobD said:

    YouGov didn't sneak out while we weren't watching, did it? :D

    Apperently the MRP poll will be their last one.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Labour majority it is then.
  • BigJoeCanoeBigJoeCanoe Posts: 10
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,518
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
    Literally or figuratively?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    FF43 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
    Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
    My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
    But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?
    It doesn't matter. It is clear enough of the British public like the sound of Corbynomonics.
    It does matter though. Whether people are right to like Corbynomics or not, he as a person and leader has negatives that it would be nice to see if they could avoid with a new leader, even if that person is a Corbynite in every other way.
  • BigJoeCanoeBigJoeCanoe Posts: 10
    https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1204896130510794753?s=21
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    BigJoeCanoe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
    Blimey. That's a really good point.

    I hadn't thought of that...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Looks like Survation will be running their ZX Spectrums well into the night, and I need my bed rest. It'll just have to be a lovely surprise for the morning... :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    bookseller said:

    BigJoeCanoe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
    Blimey. That's a really good point.

    I hadn't thought of that...
    FTPA surely won't survive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited December 2019
    Malta passport selling scandal backgroud is rather interesting...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Chdtdo5URo
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    Survation really milking this 'Gold Standard' record, getting a bit divaish now keeping everyone waiting for the last poll
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    BigJoeCanoe said:

    https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1204896130510794753?s=21

    Daily Record saying vote SNP tactically. Bad media for SLab, the Record used to be diehard SLab.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
    I have seen people on this very site claim the same.

    Weather it is true or not (see what I did there) - I could not say.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    FF43 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
    Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
    My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.
    In a way I am somewhat sanguine about Johnson. He is Berlusconi Mark 2, who did Italy absolutely no good at all, but told people what they like to hear. These charlatans have staying power.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    viewcode said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
    Don't agree. Not voting or spoiling ballot paper is as valid as voting, and an important part of the freedoms that people fought for. You wouldn't want to end up like Australia now would you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    BigJoeCanoe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
    Pretty sure someone looked this up earlier in the campaign, and the wording of the Act is such that it will still be May next time if on schedule.

    But as RobD states, it is not surviving. I think Labour are looking to junk it as well.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    bookseller said:

    BigJoeCanoe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
    Blimey. That's a really good point.

    I hadn't thought of that...
    It’s fixed as May in the fifth year after the last one, so May 2024. I think.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,358
    I don't think much has changed through the campaign. Foxy's Final prediction.

    Con 360
    Lab 201
    SNP 43
    LD 21
    PC 4
    Green 1
    Ind 1
    Speaker 1
    NI 18


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1204901862639624192
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
    I have seen people on this very site claim the same.

    Weather it is true or not (see what I did there) - I could not say.
    Imagine the effect is minor, would expect tiny favourable to Cons due to postal vote and higher voter certainty.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    less than 47 minutes to go folks :o
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Boysie said:

    I just spent half an hour replying to @CycleFree . Not sure where her comment has gone and I'm buggered where mine is. They were so intelligent and insightful (well Ms Free's were)!

    Not hanging around as a draft in the vanilla forums? I'm always getting partial draft posts sticking around in there.

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussions
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
    I have seen people on this very site claim the same.

    Weather it is true or not (see what I did there) - I could not say.
    Tories have got cars, innit?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    HYUFD said:

    Survation really milking this 'Gold Standard' record, getting a bit divaish now keeping everyone waiting for the last poll

    Ipsos MORI
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    BigJoeCanoe said:

    https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1204896130510794753?s=21

    What on earth is that asterisk doing in that headline? Why explain the joke/metaphor?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Nearly £500k has been matched on Overall Majority on Betfair this evening.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    FPT:

    I have gone through an entire six-week campaign of door-knocking without finding one Con to Labour switcher.

    BTW our candidate has knocked on 27,000 doors. He started 5 months ago when selected. He had to break it to his girlfriend that the deposit they'd saved for their first house....? He was going to need it. Now THAT is skin in the game....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    I don't think much has changed through the campaign. Foxy's Final prediction.

    Con 360
    Lab 201
    SNP 43
    LD 21
    PC 4
    Green 1
    Ind 1
    Speaker 1
    NI 18


    Thanks again Foxy - appreciate that you took the time out of your evening to provide advice and information
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2019
    Have people seen the update YouGov MRP tables
    https://twitter.com/benlauderdale/status/1204523163079630856?s=19

    The change in Scotland is just absolutely bananas

    The previous version for comparison

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ZAfbtHgj42wx4reHnaMtbBamoKdMxkFMpz4gnWMjiZCUAxDX66MsCB38K/2019_data/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release.pdf
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    kle4 said:

    BigJoeCanoe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
    Pretty sure someone looked this up earlier in the campaign, and the wording of the Act is such that it will still be May next time if on schedule.

    But as RobD states, it is not surviving. I think Labour are looking to junk it as well.
    According to Labour it helped Boris hang on without having to call an election, which is a curious reading of the events of the autumn.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    BigJoeCanoe said:

    https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1204896130510794753?s=21

    I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    edited December 2019
    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    You could always vote for a fringe candidate like Christian People's Alliance or Lib Dems. (not to be confused with a fridge candidate)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1204901862639624192

    "The exit poll is going to beat you at this rate"

    Arf!
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    I've never been so terrified of an election result, I fear a conservative majority disappeared with that phone into Boris's pocket.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    viewcode said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
    This is unduly prim.

    I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.

    "I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    FF43 said:

    BigJoeCanoe said:

    https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1204896130510794753?s=21

    I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!
    SNP taxes.....
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,538
    It could still be a Tory majority of about 80 if it really is a 10% lead.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    kle4 said:

    BigJoeCanoe said:

    https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1204896130510794753?s=21

    What on earth is that asterisk doing in that headline? Why explain the joke/metaphor?
    Corbyn gets on my wick....
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    BigJoeCanoe said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
    Voting Labour would depress anyone.
    Can't remember where I saw it but apparently bad weather leads to low moods which increases status quo bias in voters. You'd think that would help the candidates trying to hold tight marginals, but the kicker was that the marginal increase in status quo bias was so small they couldn't translate it into swing. In short it makes fuck all difference.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,667
    FF43 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    FF43 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.

    Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.

    Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
    Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
    My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.
    In a way I am somewhat sanguine about Johnson. He is Berlusconi Mark 2, who did Italy absolutely no good at all, but told people what they like to hear. These charlatans have staying power.
    I think Boris will need to delegate for effectiveness, as he seemed to do as Mayor of London, and as Cameron did iirc. The question then becomes how good the team can be.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
    I have seen people on this very site claim the same.

    Weather it is true or not (see what I did there) - I could not say.
    Tories have got cars, innit?
    Years ago Labour made some changes - or proposed changes to car tax which would have penalised older more polluting vehicles.

    Harry's place (blog) was firmly Labour in those days (not anymore) and defenders of the policy claimed that only tories would be affected........

    To be fair they were shouted down by all sides with howls of derision.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    Lewis Goodall is doing a multi tweet thread, dragging himself to a conclusion of a Tory win.

    So Lab must be shafted in the marginals.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Lewis Goodall is doing a multi tweet thread, dragging himself to a conclusion of a Tory win.

    So Lab must be shafted in the marginals.

    Honestly, I don't take any notice of him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    YBarddCwsc said:

    viewcode said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
    This is unduly prim.

    I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.

    "I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
    Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    edited December 2019
    Any weather-based electoral theory has to explain why NW European governments tend very disproportionately to favour summer and autumn elections, and tend to call discretionary elections at other times under special circumstances.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    MarqueeMark said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    viewcode said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
    This is unduly prim.

    I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.

    "I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
    Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?
    I am helping those betting on a low turnout.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    PM Corbyn nailed on??? ;)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BigJoeCanoe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
    I think they are set in May
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    YBarddCwsc said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    viewcode said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
    This is unduly prim.

    I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.

    "I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
    Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?
    I am helping those betting on a low turnout.
    If you spoil your ballot does that still count for turnout? I'm expecting loads more than normal this election...
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Electoral Calculus is down...now that does make me twitchy!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    YBarddCwsc said:

    viewcode said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
    This is unduly prim.

    I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.

    "I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
    I’m much more of a cynic. I think politicians are guilty until proved innocent and regard the function of democracy to be throwing out governments without the need for bloody revolution. It’s one of the reasons I’m so irritated that Labour picked Corbyn as for my theory to work there must be a vaguely competent party waiting to take over.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?
  • MauveMauve Posts: 130
    I hate to say it, because I think Boris is as unfit to be PM as Corbyn, but it seems like there's now no way to avoid a small Tory majority. A small majority is probably the worst possible result for anyone who wants sensible government (rather than the blue team cheerleaders) as Boris won't be able to ignore the lunatic right wingers demanding a no deal Brexit and American food / healthcare standards. At least with a big majority he could tell them to sod off and focus on not having the country hate him after 6 months.

    With Raab's Brexit policy and Patel's policing policies this is not going to be a fun few years for a lot of people. Hopefully at least it will mean Labour get someone sensible in charge and can win in 2024. Maybe the Lib Dems can find an excuse to ditch Swinson as well.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    viewcode said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Real dilemma

    What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.

    I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.

    Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
    This is unduly prim.

    I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.

    "I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
    I’m much more of a cynic. I think politicians are guilty until proved innocent and regard the function of democracy to be throwing out governments without the need for bloody revolution. It’s one of the reasons I’m so irritated that Labour picked Corbyn as for my theory to work there must be a vaguely competent party waiting to take over.
    This is exactly why people should not abstain, but instead vote for fringe (not fridge) candidates like the Socialist Workers or the Lib Dems. You have to warn the government that there are lots of people not content with it, and waiting for a better option.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?
    Don’t lobsters live for ever (until something kills them)? I mean they never grow old, just keep getting bigger?
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Thinking of next LD leader....its probably going to be Davey isn't it?
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    bookseller said:

    Electoral Calculus is down...now that does make me twitchy!

    Been doing it all day
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,103
    FF43 said:

    BigJoeCanoe said:

    https://twitter.com/samlove8888/status/1204896130510794753?s=21

    I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!
    It doesn't. Its 55p in the UK . Its says its 25p cheaper than its rivals...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Floater said:

    Nigel has spoken

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/

    Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?
    Because people are prepared to drop him in boiling water?
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Mauve said:

    I hate to say it, because I think Boris is as unfit to be PM as Corbyn, but it seems like there's now no way to avoid a small Tory majority. A small majority is probably the worst possible result for anyone who wants sensible government (rather than the blue team cheerleaders) as Boris won't be able to ignore the lunatic right wingers demanding a no deal Brexit and American food / healthcare standards. At least with a big majority he could tell them to sod off and focus on not having the country hate him after 6 months.

    With Raab's Brexit policy and Patel's policing policies this is not going to be a fun few years for a lot of people. Hopefully at least it will mean Labour get someone sensible in charge and can win in 2024. Maybe the Lib Dems can find an excuse to ditch Swinson as well.

    A small majority would also reduce the chance of Labour waking up and getting rid of the far left.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Waiting for Survation is worse than the Exit Poll...at least you know when the Exit Poll is coming.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    Surprised to see the Morning Star given away free by the exits at my local Tesco store tonight. Wouldn't have thought Tesco's kind of capitalism would chime with that paper's editorial.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    noisywinter said:

    Thinking of next LD leader....its probably going to be Davey isn't it?

    May require a flip of the coin with 1 other, if some of the polling is correct.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    bookseller said:

    Electoral Calculus is down...now that does make me twitchy!

    I have to say that the predictions of Electoral Calculus have become more and more bizarre.

    The Welsh seat predictions -- and how they have changed over the last few weeks -- make absolutely no sense. At one point, the site was predicting the only Welsh Tory gain would be Bridgend.

    I don't know what will happen in Wales, or how many gains the Tories will make. But I do know that if Bridgend has fallen to the Tories, they will have taken at least 5 or 6 other seats.

    I think Baxter must have been tweaking and tweaking his algorithms, but I would not rely on the site much for seat predictions.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 480
    Charles said:

    BigJoeCanoe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?

    How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?
    I think they are set in May
    They are indeed. Under the FTPA all scheduled general elections (as opposed to ones called early) take place on the first Thursday in May.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025