Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...
This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.
I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.
I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either
He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kind
He is correct about the Conservatives becoming an English nationalist party though. I used to feel that the Westminster govt represented me no matter which party was in charge. Labour no longer seems to give a d*mn about anything and the Tories have become an English party.
I am not English. I am British/Irish, but I feel dispossessed.
It's possible, though I consider unlikely, that the Tories will have their highest number of seats in Scotland since 1983 and their best Welsh result ever.
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Presumably we will now get a rapid Tory enquiry into alleged racism.
I wonder if the EHCR Report will be the thing to finish Mr Corbyn. Quite ironic if the Whiter-than-White individual turned out to be a classic scapegoat, which was traditionally the newborn innocent.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?
Average barely moved. Should be enough for the Tories if accurate, so a lot of pollsters need to be quite some way out for Corbyn.
Well, at least we should be rid of one of Boris or Corbyn soon, right?
As the header says, barring a polling disaster the Tories look set for some kind of majority (caveat: a Con-Lab gap of less than 5% starts to tend increasingly towards a Hung Parliament, and that's within MoE for ICM and ComRes.) But unless the final two polls deliver a major upset, we are not heading for any of those Con +1 or Lab +2 kind of numbers that some of them were offering up at the end of the 2017 campaign.
I would be a lot happier to see the back of Corbyn if I didn't suspect that Labour will simply elect a replacement that's as bonkers, if not more so, but without the Hamas/IRA/Press TV baggage.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?
It doesn't matter. It is clear enough of the British public like the sound of Corbynomonics.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?
It doesn't matter. It is clear enough of the British public like the sound of Corbynomonics.
It does matter though. Whether people are right to like Corbynomics or not, he as a person and leader has negatives that it would be nice to see if they could avoid with a new leader, even if that person is a Corbynite in every other way.
Looks like Survation will be running their ZX Spectrums well into the night, and I need my bed rest. It'll just have to be a lovely surprise for the morning...
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.
In a way I am somewhat sanguine about Johnson. He is Berlusconi Mark 2, who did Italy absolutely no good at all, but told people what they like to hear. These charlatans have staying power.
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
Don't agree. Not voting or spoiling ballot paper is as valid as voting, and an important part of the freedoms that people fought for. You wouldn't want to end up like Australia now would you?
I just spent half an hour replying to @CycleFree . Not sure where her comment has gone and I'm buggered where mine is. They were so intelligent and insightful (well Ms Free's were)!
Not hanging around as a draft in the vanilla forums? I'm always getting partial draft posts sticking around in there.
I have gone through an entire six-week campaign of door-knocking without finding one Con to Labour switcher.
BTW our candidate has knocked on 27,000 doors. He started 5 months ago when selected. He had to break it to his girlfriend that the deposit they'd saved for their first house....? He was going to need it. Now THAT is skin in the game....
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
You could always vote for a fringe candidate like Christian People's Alliance or Lib Dems. (not to be confused with a fridge candidate)
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
This is unduly prim.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.
Voting Labour would depress anyone.
Can't remember where I saw it but apparently bad weather leads to low moods which increases status quo bias in voters. You'd think that would help the candidates trying to hold tight marginals, but the kicker was that the marginal increase in status quo bias was so small they couldn't translate it into swing. In short it makes fuck all difference.
Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.
My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.
In a way I am somewhat sanguine about Johnson. He is Berlusconi Mark 2, who did Italy absolutely no good at all, but told people what they like to hear. These charlatans have staying power.
I think Boris will need to delegate for effectiveness, as he seemed to do as Mayor of London, and as Cameron did iirc. The question then becomes how good the team can be.
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
This is unduly prim.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?
Any weather-based electoral theory has to explain why NW European governments tend very disproportionately to favour summer and autumn elections, and tend to call discretionary elections at other times under special circumstances.
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
This is unduly prim.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
This is unduly prim.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?
I am helping those betting on a low turnout.
If you spoil your ballot does that still count for turnout? I'm expecting loads more than normal this election...
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
This is unduly prim.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
I’m much more of a cynic. I think politicians are guilty until proved innocent and regard the function of democracy to be throwing out governments without the need for bloody revolution. It’s one of the reasons I’m so irritated that Labour picked Corbyn as for my theory to work there must be a vaguely competent party waiting to take over.
I hate to say it, because I think Boris is as unfit to be PM as Corbyn, but it seems like there's now no way to avoid a small Tory majority. A small majority is probably the worst possible result for anyone who wants sensible government (rather than the blue team cheerleaders) as Boris won't be able to ignore the lunatic right wingers demanding a no deal Brexit and American food / healthcare standards. At least with a big majority he could tell them to sod off and focus on not having the country hate him after 6 months.
With Raab's Brexit policy and Patel's policing policies this is not going to be a fun few years for a lot of people. Hopefully at least it will mean Labour get someone sensible in charge and can win in 2024. Maybe the Lib Dems can find an excuse to ditch Swinson as well.
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.
This is unduly prim.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
I’m much more of a cynic. I think politicians are guilty until proved innocent and regard the function of democracy to be throwing out governments without the need for bloody revolution. It’s one of the reasons I’m so irritated that Labour picked Corbyn as for my theory to work there must be a vaguely competent party waiting to take over.
This is exactly why people should not abstain, but instead vote for fringe (not fridge) candidates like the Socialist Workers or the Lib Dems. You have to warn the government that there are lots of people not content with it, and waiting for a better option.
I hate to say it, because I think Boris is as unfit to be PM as Corbyn, but it seems like there's now no way to avoid a small Tory majority. A small majority is probably the worst possible result for anyone who wants sensible government (rather than the blue team cheerleaders) as Boris won't be able to ignore the lunatic right wingers demanding a no deal Brexit and American food / healthcare standards. At least with a big majority he could tell them to sod off and focus on not having the country hate him after 6 months.
With Raab's Brexit policy and Patel's policing policies this is not going to be a fun few years for a lot of people. Hopefully at least it will mean Labour get someone sensible in charge and can win in 2024. Maybe the Lib Dems can find an excuse to ditch Swinson as well.
A small majority would also reduce the chance of Labour waking up and getting rid of the far left.
Surprised to see the Morning Star given away free by the exits at my local Tesco store tonight. Wouldn't have thought Tesco's kind of capitalism would chime with that paper's editorial.
Electoral Calculus is down...now that does make me twitchy!
I have to say that the predictions of Electoral Calculus have become more and more bizarre.
The Welsh seat predictions -- and how they have changed over the last few weeks -- make absolutely no sense. At one point, the site was predicting the only Welsh Tory gain would be Bridgend.
I don't know what will happen in Wales, or how many gains the Tories will make. But I do know that if Bridgend has fallen to the Tories, they will have taken at least 5 or 6 other seats.
I think Baxter must have been tweaking and tweaking his algorithms, but I would not rely on the site much for seat predictions.
Comments
2nd, like West Brom.
This time tomorrow maybe we will know
Anyway have a pleasant nights rest everyone
Good night folks
Well, at least we should be rid of one of Boris or Corbyn soon, right?
But we're definitely coming out of Europe sadly...oh well.
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Presumably we will now get a rapid Tory enquiry into alleged racism.
I wonder if the EHCR Report will be the thing to finish Mr Corbyn. Quite ironic if the Whiter-than-White individual turned out to be a classic scapegoat, which was traditionally the newborn innocent.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-says-conservatives-will-win/
I would be a lot happier to see the back of Corbyn if I didn't suspect that Labour will simply elect a replacement that's as bonkers, if not more so, but without the Hamas/IRA/Press TV baggage.
I hadn't thought of that...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Chdtdo5URo
Weather it is true or not (see what I did there) - I could not say.
But as RobD states, it is not surviving. I think Labour are looking to junk it as well.
Con 360
Lab 201
SNP 43
LD 21
PC 4
Green 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussions
I have gone through an entire six-week campaign of door-knocking without finding one Con to Labour switcher.
BTW our candidate has knocked on 27,000 doors. He started 5 months ago when selected. He had to break it to his girlfriend that the deposit they'd saved for their first house....? He was going to need it. Now THAT is skin in the game....
https://twitter.com/benlauderdale/status/1204523163079630856?s=19
The change in Scotland is just absolutely bananas
The previous version for comparison
https://yg-infographics-data.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ZAfbtHgj42wx4reHnaMtbBamoKdMxkFMpz4gnWMjiZCUAxDX66MsCB38K/2019_data/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release.pdf
Arf!
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
Harry's place (blog) was firmly Labour in those days (not anymore) and defenders of the policy claimed that only tories would be affected........
To be fair they were shouted down by all sides with howls of derision.
So Lab must be shafted in the marginals.
With Raab's Brexit policy and Patel's policing policies this is not going to be a fun few years for a lot of people. Hopefully at least it will mean Labour get someone sensible in charge and can win in 2024. Maybe the Lib Dems can find an excuse to ditch Swinson as well.
The Welsh seat predictions -- and how they have changed over the last few weeks -- make absolutely no sense. At one point, the site was predicting the only Welsh Tory gain would be Bridgend.
I don't know what will happen in Wales, or how many gains the Tories will make. But I do know that if Bridgend has fallen to the Tories, they will have taken at least 5 or 6 other seats.
I think Baxter must have been tweaking and tweaking his algorithms, but I would not rely on the site much for seat predictions.