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First0
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Early to the party, but couldn't elbow Big G out of the way.
2nd, like West Brom.0 -
Turd, like the DUP2
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So G, tories over 40 - maybe 43. What do you think for Labour?0
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Given the betfair market is stuck at 1.38, I am guessing Survation is going to be another 9-10% jobbie.0
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Where's survation?0
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Sorry about that but time to call it a daycamel said:Early to the party, but couldn't elbow Big G out of the way.
2nd, like West Brom.
This time tomorrow maybe we will know
Anyway have a pleasant nights rest everyone
Good night folks0 -
Average barely moved. Should be enough for the Tories if accurate, so a lot of pollsters need to be quite some way out for Corbyn.
Well, at least we should be rid of one of Boris or Corbyn soon, right?0 -
YouGov didn't sneak out while we weren't watching, did it?
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It's possible, though I consider unlikely, that the Tories will have their highest number of seats in Scotland since 1983 and their best Welsh result ever.Beibheirli_C said:
He is correct about the Conservatives becoming an English nationalist party though. I used to feel that the Westminster govt represented me no matter which party was in charge. Labour no longer seems to give a d*mn about anything and the Tories have become an English party.Floater said:
He does this now and again - then cries when its returned in kindRobinWiggs said:
This has been an unpleasant campaign, and this type of post typifies it.tyson said:
What worries me is how the Tories have morphed into an English nationalist pressure group that doesn't give 2 flying fucks about the economic health of the country and fights an election on an entirely mendacious theme of "get Brexit done" that is obviously bollox. What became of your party? From what I see you are something much lower than pond life amoeba...RobinWiggs said:
Why am I drawn to the 5% poll and worried, yet not calmed by the 5 x 10% and over polls?Black_Rook said:Tonight's polls
Opinium Con 45/Lab 33/LD 12 (Con lead +12)
Qriously 43/30/12 (+13)
NCPolitics 43/33/12 (+10)
BMG 41/32/14 (+9)
Panelbase 43/34/11 (+9)
ComRes 41/36/12 (+5)
Kantar 44/32/13 (+12)
Deltapoll 45/35/10 (+10)
Mean Con lead: 10% exactly
Still waiting for Survation, YouGov and ICM, assuming they're all publishing tonight...? Ipsos MORI expected tomorrow morning I believe.
2017 has a lot to answer for. I was fine until this evening.
I dislike Corbyn vehemently and disagree with most Labour policy. But I still recognise that most Labour candidates are like most Conservative candidates - decent and honourable people motivated primarily by notions of public service, who want to do the best for the community.
I certainly wouldn’t call them lower than amoeba. I wish you didn’t either
I am not English. I am British/Irish, but I feel dispossessed.0 -
Still crunching their numbers. Telling us via Twitter that the fieldwork only ended an hour ago.Ave_it said:Where's survation?
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The Tory lead in Survation at the start of the campaign was 6%. I can’t see it being 14% but I’d take 11 or 12% for sure0
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Wow thats some close to election pollingBlack_Rook said:
Still crunching their numbers. Telling us via Twitter that the fieldwork only ended an hour ago.Ave_it said:Where's survation?
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So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?0
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I'm going for 24
Tories 24 I reckon...a bit of tactical voting and a few remainia strongholds bucking the national trends.camel said:So G, tories over 40 - maybe 43. What do you think for Labour?
But we're definitely coming out of Europe sadly...oh well.0 -
Survation are going to release both a GB wide poll and a Scotland only poll.
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/1 -
Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.0 -
Yessss - calm down , calm down you lot :-)0
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Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
Presumably we will now get a rapid Tory enquiry into alleged racism.
I wonder if the EHCR Report will be the thing to finish Mr Corbyn. Quite ironic if the Whiter-than-White individual turned out to be a classic scapegoat, which was traditionally the newborn innocent.0 -
It's not the Sun's best front page to be honest.0
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KLAXON functioning normally.nunu2 said:Survation are going to release both a GB wide poll and a Scotland only poll.
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/
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Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.0 -
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But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?FrancisUrquhart said:
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.0 -
As the header says, barring a polling disaster the Tories look set for some kind of majority (caveat: a Con-Lab gap of less than 5% starts to tend increasingly towards a Hung Parliament, and that's within MoE for ICM and ComRes.) But unless the final two polls deliver a major upset, we are not heading for any of those Con +1 or Lab +2 kind of numbers that some of them were offering up at the end of the 2017 campaign.kle4 said:Average barely moved. Should be enough for the Tories if accurate, so a lot of pollsters need to be quite some way out for Corbyn.
Well, at least we should be rid of one of Boris or Corbyn soon, right?
I would be a lot happier to see the back of Corbyn if I didn't suspect that Labour will simply elect a replacement that's as bonkers, if not more so, but without the Hamas/IRA/Press TV baggage.0 -
Wasnt there supposed to be a Panelbase Scottish poll? @Alistar?RobD said:
KLAXON functioning normally.nunu2 said:Survation are going to release both a GB wide poll and a Scotland only poll.
https://www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/0 -
It doesn't matter. It is clear enough of the British public like the sound of Corbynomonics.kle4 said:
But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?FrancisUrquhart said:
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.0 -
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.0 -
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.0 -
Thinking the weather will depress the Labour vote. Really.Floater said:0 -
2024 ADFrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
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Labour majority it is then.Floater said:0 -
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
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My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.FF43 said:
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.0 -
It does matter though. Whether people are right to like Corbynomics or not, he as a person and leader has negatives that it would be nice to see if they could avoid with a new leader, even if that person is a Corbynite in every other way.FrancisUrquhart said:
It doesn't matter. It is clear enough of the British public like the sound of Corbynomonics.kle4 said:
But with or without him? Losing two elections is enough for him to stand down at least surely?FrancisUrquhart said:
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.0 -
Blimey. That's a really good point.BigJoeCanoe said:
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
I hadn't thought of that...0 -
Looks like Survation will be running their ZX Spectrums well into the night, and I need my bed rest. It'll just have to be a lovely surprise for the morning...
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FTPA surely won't survive.bookseller said:
Blimey. That's a really good point.BigJoeCanoe said:
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
I hadn't thought of that...0 -
Malta passport selling scandal backgroud is rather interesting...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Chdtdo5URo0 -
Survation really milking this 'Gold Standard' record, getting a bit divaish now keeping everyone waiting for the last poll0
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Daily Record saying vote SNP tactically. Bad media for SLab, the Record used to be diehard SLab.BigJoeCanoe said:0 -
In a way I am somewhat sanguine about Johnson. He is Berlusconi Mark 2, who did Italy absolutely no good at all, but told people what they like to hear. These charlatans have staying power.FrancisUrquhart said:
My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.FF43 said:
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.0 -
Don't agree. Not voting or spoiling ballot paper is as valid as voting, and an important part of the freedoms that people fought for. You wouldn't want to end up like Australia now would you?viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.2 -
Pretty sure someone looked this up earlier in the campaign, and the wording of the Act is such that it will still be May next time if on schedule.BigJoeCanoe said:
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
But as RobD states, it is not surviving. I think Labour are looking to junk it as well.
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It’s fixed as May in the fifth year after the last one, so May 2024. I think.bookseller said:
Blimey. That's a really good point.BigJoeCanoe said:
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
I hadn't thought of that...0 -
I don't think much has changed through the campaign. Foxy's Final prediction.
Con 360
Lab 201
SNP 43
LD 21
PC 4
Green 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
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Imagine the effect is minor, would expect tiny favourable to Cons due to postal vote and higher voter certainty.Floater said:0 -
less than 47 minutes to go folks
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Not hanging around as a draft in the vanilla forums? I'm always getting partial draft posts sticking around in there.Boysie said:I just spent half an hour replying to @CycleFree . Not sure where her comment has gone and I'm buggered where mine is. They were so intelligent and insightful (well Ms Free's were)!
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussions0 -
Ipsos MORIHYUFD said:Survation really milking this 'Gold Standard' record, getting a bit divaish now keeping everyone waiting for the last poll
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What on earth is that asterisk doing in that headline? Why explain the joke/metaphor?BigJoeCanoe said:0 -
Nearly £500k has been matched on Overall Majority on Betfair this evening.0
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FPT:
I have gone through an entire six-week campaign of door-knocking without finding one Con to Labour switcher.
BTW our candidate has knocked on 27,000 doors. He started 5 months ago when selected. He had to break it to his girlfriend that the deposit they'd saved for their first house....? He was going to need it. Now THAT is skin in the game....1 -
Have people seen the update YouGov MRP tables
https://twitter.com/benlauderdale/status/1204523163079630856?s=19
The change in Scotland is just absolutely bananas
The previous version for comparison
https://yg-infographics-data.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ZAfbtHgj42wx4reHnaMtbBamoKdMxkFMpz4gnWMjiZCUAxDX66MsCB38K/2019_data/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release.pdf1 -
According to Labour it helped Boris hang on without having to call an election, which is a curious reading of the events of the autumn.kle4 said:
Pretty sure someone looked this up earlier in the campaign, and the wording of the Act is such that it will still be May next time if on schedule.BigJoeCanoe said:
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
But as RobD states, it is not surviving. I think Labour are looking to junk it as well.0 -
I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!BigJoeCanoe said:0 -
You could always vote for a fringe candidate like Christian People's Alliance or Lib Dems. (not to be confused with a fridge candidate)IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.0 -
2
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I've never been so terrified of an election result, I fear a conservative majority disappeared with that phone into Boris's pocket.0
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This is unduly prim.viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.
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SNP taxes.....FF43 said:
I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!BigJoeCanoe said:0 -
It could still be a Tory majority of about 80 if it really is a 10% lead.0
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Corbyn gets on my wick....kle4 said:
What on earth is that asterisk doing in that headline? Why explain the joke/metaphor?BigJoeCanoe said:0 -
Can't remember where I saw it but apparently bad weather leads to low moods which increases status quo bias in voters. You'd think that would help the candidates trying to hold tight marginals, but the kicker was that the marginal increase in status quo bias was so small they couldn't translate it into swing. In short it makes fuck all difference.BigJoeCanoe said:0 -
I think Boris will need to delegate for effectiveness, as he seemed to do as Mayor of London, and as Cameron did iirc. The question then becomes how good the team can be.FF43 said:
In a way I am somewhat sanguine about Johnson. He is Berlusconi Mark 2, who did Italy absolutely no good at all, but told people what they like to hear. These charlatans have staying power.FrancisUrquhart said:
My worry is that a global recession is coming, rise of new global powers like China and ML / AI will mean more middle class people struggling and Brexit is obviously very choppy waters. One more heave will do it for them.FF43 said:
Although those policies will be far less damaging than the Tory ones simply because Labour won't be in power.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unless the polls are super wrong, we aren't going to be Corbyn neutral for the foreseeable future, because if Labour do manage to get 35%, they will continue on with their hard left policies and lots of people now have a career ramping the cult.MattW said:Thinking that one appropriate character for satirising Jo Swinson would be Little Miss Bossy.
Quite like the "Corbyn neutral by Christmas" quip.
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Years ago Labour made some changes - or proposed changes to car tax which would have penalised older more polluting vehicles.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Harry's place (blog) was firmly Labour in those days (not anymore) and defenders of the policy claimed that only tories would be affected........
To be fair they were shouted down by all sides with howls of derision.1 -
Lewis Goodall is doing a multi tweet thread, dragging himself to a conclusion of a Tory win.
So Lab must be shafted in the marginals.0 -
Honestly, I don't take any notice of him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall is doing a multi tweet thread, dragging himself to a conclusion of a Tory win.
So Lab must be shafted in the marginals.1 -
Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?YBarddCwsc said:
This is unduly prim.viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.0 -
Any weather-based electoral theory has to explain why NW European governments tend very disproportionately to favour summer and autumn elections, and tend to call discretionary elections at other times under special circumstances.0
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I am helping those betting on a low turnout.MarqueeMark said:
Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?YBarddCwsc said:
This is unduly prim.viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.0 -
PM Corbyn nailed on???Floater said:
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I think they are set in MayBigJoeCanoe said:
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
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If you spoil your ballot does that still count for turnout? I'm expecting loads more than normal this election...YBarddCwsc said:
I am helping those betting on a low turnout.MarqueeMark said:
Won't you think of those betting on higher turnout?YBarddCwsc said:
This is unduly prim.viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.0 -
Electoral Calculus is down...now that does make me twitchy!1
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I’m much more of a cynic. I think politicians are guilty until proved innocent and regard the function of democracy to be throwing out governments without the need for bloody revolution. It’s one of the reasons I’m so irritated that Labour picked Corbyn as for my theory to work there must be a vaguely competent party waiting to take over.YBarddCwsc said:
This is unduly prim.viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.0 -
Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?Floater said:0 -
I hate to say it, because I think Boris is as unfit to be PM as Corbyn, but it seems like there's now no way to avoid a small Tory majority. A small majority is probably the worst possible result for anyone who wants sensible government (rather than the blue team cheerleaders) as Boris won't be able to ignore the lunatic right wingers demanding a no deal Brexit and American food / healthcare standards. At least with a big majority he could tell them to sod off and focus on not having the country hate him after 6 months.
With Raab's Brexit policy and Patel's policing policies this is not going to be a fun few years for a lot of people. Hopefully at least it will mean Labour get someone sensible in charge and can win in 2024. Maybe the Lib Dems can find an excuse to ditch Swinson as well.0 -
This is exactly why people should not abstain, but instead vote for fringe (not fridge) candidates like the Socialist Workers or the Lib Dems. You have to warn the government that there are lots of people not content with it, and waiting for a better option.Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m much more of a cynic. I think politicians are guilty until proved innocent and regard the function of democracy to be throwing out governments without the need for bloody revolution. It’s one of the reasons I’m so irritated that Labour picked Corbyn as for my theory to work there must be a vaguely competent party waiting to take over.YBarddCwsc said:
This is unduly prim.viewcode said:
Always, always, vote as if you are the only person that is voting and that people will die if you don't. It is a very serious thing and should be done with all the effort at your command.IshmaelZ said:Real dilemma
What are the ethics of not voting vs turning up to spoil a ballot, in a non marginal constituency? One hears "If you don't vote you have no right to complain" but why, and so what anyway? Losing the right to complain for the duration of the next parliament would free up a lot of valuable time.
I am struggling with an almighty bout of cantbearsedness.
I won't be voting tomorrow. It is the responsibility of political parties to provide me with positive and joyful reasons to vote.
"I hate Corby" or "I hate Bozza" is not a positive reason to vote.0 -
Don’t lobsters live for ever (until something kills them)? I mean they never grow old, just keep getting bigger?YBarddCwsc said:
Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?Floater said:0 -
Thinking of next LD leader....its probably going to be Davey isn't it?0
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Been doing it all daybookseller said:Electoral Calculus is down...now that does make me twitchy!
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It doesn't. Its 55p in the UK . Its says its 25p cheaper than its rivals...FF43 said:
I want to know why the Sun costs 55p in Scotland and only 25p in England. Scotland being done over again!BigJoeCanoe said:1 -
Because people are prepared to drop him in boiling water?YBarddCwsc said:
Can someone with a subscription to the Torygraph enlighten us as to why, if Nigel Farage had to be an animal, he would be a lobster ?Floater said:0 -
A small majority would also reduce the chance of Labour waking up and getting rid of the far left.Mauve said:I hate to say it, because I think Boris is as unfit to be PM as Corbyn, but it seems like there's now no way to avoid a small Tory majority. A small majority is probably the worst possible result for anyone who wants sensible government (rather than the blue team cheerleaders) as Boris won't be able to ignore the lunatic right wingers demanding a no deal Brexit and American food / healthcare standards. At least with a big majority he could tell them to sod off and focus on not having the country hate him after 6 months.
With Raab's Brexit policy and Patel's policing policies this is not going to be a fun few years for a lot of people. Hopefully at least it will mean Labour get someone sensible in charge and can win in 2024. Maybe the Lib Dems can find an excuse to ditch Swinson as well.0 -
Waiting for Survation is worse than the Exit Poll...at least you know when the Exit Poll is coming.0
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Surprised to see the Morning Star given away free by the exits at my local Tesco store tonight. Wouldn't have thought Tesco's kind of capitalism would chime with that paper's editorial.0
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May require a flip of the coin with 1 other, if some of the polling is correct.noisywinter said:Thinking of next LD leader....its probably going to be Davey isn't it?
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I have to say that the predictions of Electoral Calculus have become more and more bizarre.bookseller said:Electoral Calculus is down...now that does make me twitchy!
The Welsh seat predictions -- and how they have changed over the last few weeks -- make absolutely no sense. At one point, the site was predicting the only Welsh Tory gain would be Bridgend.
I don't know what will happen in Wales, or how many gains the Tories will make. But I do know that if Bridgend has fallen to the Tories, they will have taken at least 5 or 6 other seats.
I think Baxter must have been tweaking and tweaking his algorithms, but I would not rely on the site much for seat predictions.0 -
They are indeed. Under the FTPA all scheduled general elections (as opposed to ones called early) take place on the first Thursday in May.Charles said:
I think they are set in MayBigJoeCanoe said:
How does the fixed term parly act cope ? We stuck with Dec elections for eternity?FrancisUrquhart said:So when do we think the GE re-run will be? 6 months?
0
