politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Getting Brexit Done

kle4 said:

I've not moved on from poetry since my schooldays, in that I cannot tell what is meant to be generally thought of as a 'good' example of it or not. I feel the same way about things like various gymnastics events, such as the Pommell Horse, in that it all seems very impressive but I cannot tell which is better than another.

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Wow! Check out what LauraK has been saying about postal voting, as quoted in the Guardian, then go straight back to your online accounts! Dynamite!

Except it’s crap. Even if it turns out to be true.

If it is true she might get a visit from Mr Plod!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Our final #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the @Telegraph, is as follows:

CON 41% (-)
LAB 36% (+3)
LD 12% (-)
Other 11% (-3)

9th - 10th Dec

(changes from Savanta ComRes/Sunday Telegraph, Dec 7th)

https://t.co/SwZAJxFqTk https://t.co/PRibInIPwE

IanB2 said:

KentRising said:

The Tories will be fuming at LK as well - it just panics Labour voters into turning out tomorrow. She really should have been more careful. And people shouldn't have been leaking to her.

Bragging (at being in the know), not leaking.

ozymandias said:

It’s one poll. One.

Fysics_Teacher said:

kle4 said:

I've not moved on from poetry since my schooldays, in that I cannot tell what is meant to be generally thought of as a 'good' example of it or not. I feel the same way about things like various gymnastics events, such as the Pommell Horse, in that it all seems very impressive but I cannot tell which is better than another.

Good poetry is poetry you enjoy. Different people have different good poets: for some people there are none.

Black_Rook said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ozymandias said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

What’s the lowest lead we’ve had this evening please?

Nine.

Statistically we should expect at least one that is small, say 5-6%.

I don't buy the doom-laden predictions (from the Tory point of view) which state that they need something like a 7pt lead to scrape a majority. The last election, fought on the same boundaries, saw Theresa May short of an absolute majority by only nine seats based on a 2.4pt margin over Labour. A 4% lead on polling day ought to be enough for Johnson to at least scrape home.

The polls published so far this evening have been encouraging from the Conservative perspective. Whilst it's still possible for them to fall right back into Hung Parliament territory or to win by a landslide, I think there's every reason to suppose that the eventual outcome will be somewhere in between the two.

I remain confident that there will be a Tory majority of some sort at the conclusion of this election. If asked to define my confidence numerically, I'd estimate the likelihood thereof at around 80-90%.

wooliedyed said:

3rd comres to show lab 36, the only pollster to do so

HaroldO said:

Tow big issues from this general election;

1) Brexit has damaged the Tories economic prowess badly, they have been so single minded over enacting the policy they have sacrificed the high ground almost completely over fiscal pridence which has allowed Labour to thrive with their economic crankery. The checks and balances between the two lead parties over government spending etc has now gone, which in my opinion is a very long term worry.

2) Anti-Semitism has damaged Labours "progessive" credentials as badly as the above, allowing racist crankery to rear its ugly head again. By embracing a culture war based view of race they have made the subject frictional where understanding was growing year on year. Without the checks and balances here we have lost the balance we were establishing....again a long term worry.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I will stick with 55% HP. I promised I would if we saw a poll with a lead of 6 points or less.

Razedabode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...

Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.

We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority

state_go_away said:

What is everybody drinking tomorrow night anyway ?

egg said:

KentRising said:

egg said:

KentRising said:

Omnium said:

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.

How on earth do you define 'proper poets'?

Ones that can actually write.

One of the finest poets around today actually contributes to this site.

Who?!

Thank you 😌
[ahem]
Mighty I stand in rampaging light
March morning on Aventine,
Thyrsus in hand, the blossom bright,
Leaves once again upon my vine.
Soft hands hold the honey soaked thyrsus,
A robe gay with barbaric gold.
Smooth brow, with ivy's clustering berries,
A wreathe binding myrrh-scented tresses.
I am waiting.
Absorbed in sweet thoughts,
Of rich-haired Nymphai dwelling the dells of Nysa
In their sweet-smelling caves,
Beckoned from familiar sober manner
By the overflowing and intoxicating power of nature.
The mad Nymphai arrive to a beat,
Dancing through groves with lightly leaping feet,
Their heads thrown backwards, dishevelled hair,
Sacred fawnskin flail at their loins,
In their hands, swords and serpents,
Staffs entwined with ivy, headed with pine-cone.
They come again to the rite rejoice,
Will dismember me now
And devour -
Eat this body, the flesh my spirit inhabits,
Drink a toast with my deific blood,
Thankfulness for the fruit that banishes despair.
Nourished with blood and body,
They grow into my likeness,
A temple to my glory, great
Becomes the mystery of our cult.

Hear me Death in your empire unconfined,
Extending to mortal tribes of every kind.
On thee the portion of our time depends,
Where your absence lengthens life,
Your presence life ends.

But a Soul divine and immortal,
So doomed to live the grievous circle,
Will rise again, yes,
Rise again behind brief rest, will you my dust.
Immortal life, Immortal life,
I rise again where I am sown,
This spring on Aventine,
Leaves once again upon my vine.

Jonathan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

This election is just too close to call.

It really isn't.

FrancisUrquhart said:

At this rate, 200k will have been matched on Betfair Majority overall market in less than 30mins.

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204855717712318466?s=20

What an absolute cock Steve Coogan is. Tories should be sending that out on Facebook ASAP...see what they think of you.

I have to say all his sanctimonious stuff about phone hacking, when he used to be best mates with the NOTW celeb bod, used to phone him up on a Saturday night and got them to spike all sorts of stories about him.

He got pissed when Andy Coulson came in and said why do we keep not printing the stories about him?

KentRising said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

At this rate, 200k will have been matched on Betfair Majority overall market in less than 30mins.

What's going on?

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

wooliedyed said:

@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)

Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)

*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)

EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)

Dec 10-11

Sample 3,174

What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!

How is it herding if they aren't changing?

Good news for team Blue as it suggests the last few days have had no significant impact in VI.

state_go_away said:

What is everybody drinking tomorrow night anyway ?

MikeL said:

noisywinter said:

wonder if betfair could have pressure against a Tory majority from people hedging their wealth

I'm down 2k Tory majority, up 4.4k NOM for this reason

Well I for one have taken out serious insurance.

Hoping to lose a lot of money on Betfair tomorrow night.

Though I won't lose as much as I won in 2017 when I did the same - Con lost majority so my bets won big time but they stayed in power - was unbelievable!

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Mr Moderate will have ComRes as a Labour lead.

Imagine it though, bong at 10 and Labour the largest party.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If 2017 is repeated, 15% of Labour voters will make up their mind tomorrow.

Which is strangely odd to the 75% that say they will back Labour tomorrow.

camel said:

Evening. Thought you must have gone to NW Durham.

KentRising said:

egg said:

KentRising said:

egg said:

KentRising said:

Omnium said:

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.

How on earth do you define 'proper poets'?

Ones that can actually write.

One of the finest poets around today actually contributes to this site.

Who?!

Thank you 😌
[ahem]
Mighty I stand in rampaging light
March morning on Aventine,
Thyrsus in hand, the blossom bright,
Leaves once again upon my vine.
Soft hands hold the honey soaked thyrsus,
A robe gay with barbaric gold.
Smooth brow, with ivy's clustering berries,
A wreathe binding myrrh-scented tresses.
I am waiting.
Absorbed in sweet thoughts,
Of rich-haired Nymphai dwelling the dells of Nysa
In their sweet-smelling caves,
Beckoned from familiar sober manner
By the overflowing and intoxicating power of nature.
The mad Nymphai arrive to a beat,
Dancing through groves with lightly leaping feet,
Their heads thrown backwards, dishevelled hair,
Sacred fawnskin flail at their loins,
In their hands, swords and serpents,
Staffs entwined with ivy, headed with pine-cone.
They come again to the rite rejoice,
Will dismember me now
And devour -
Eat this body, the flesh my spirit inhabits,
Drink a toast with my deific blood,
Thankfulness for the fruit that banishes despair.
Nourished with blood and body,
They grow into my likeness,
A temple to my glory, great
Becomes the mystery of our cult.

Hear me Death in your empire unconfined,
Extending to mortal tribes of every kind.
On thee the portion of our time depends,
Where your absence lengthens life,
Your presence life ends.

But a Soul divine and immortal,
So doomed to live the grievous circle,
Will rise again, yes,
Rise again behind brief rest, will you my dust.
Immortal life, Immortal life,
I rise again where I am sown,
This spring on Aventine,
Leaves once again upon my vine.

I wish I hadn't asked ;-)

nico67 said:

Before people get too excited over the Savanta Comres poll , the fieldwork dates were the 9th and 10th of December.

That was at the height of phone gate . And so far it’s the only pollster to have done fieldwork only on those two days . That was before Ashworths idiocy .

We’d need to see another poll showing something similar or within the 5 to 7 range for later fieldwork .

MikeL said:

SPIN just suspended.

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ozymandias said:

spudgfsh said:

ozymandias said:

spudgfsh said:

Razedabode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its 2017 all over again down to the polling...

Is it? I distinctly remember a survation poll being within 1 or 2%. Not had any of those.

We are either on a hung parliament - or a moderate to large Tory majority

there were two polls in 2017 which were that close Qriously had a Labour 2% lead and Survation with a Tory 1% lead

And what did Qriously say today....?

13% Tory lead

Exactly. Blues chill. Breathe.

Given where Boris and Jezza have been, I don't think they believe it is 13% lead.

Weird story on R5 driving home. Apparently since the beginning of December Boris has been in Tory held seats 2:1. Corbyn has been in opposition held seats ( mainly Tory) 2:1. Given the polling shouldn’t it have been the reverse?

This Tory campaign has been better than 2017 but it did seem excessively focused on just 9 seats more from an early stage.

Casino_Royale said:

Right, I'm going off for a (very) early night.

Nothing more to be gained from speculating on here tonight, and a long day tomorrow.

Enjoy.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872648272023553

It is a HP, this will be one of the reasons. Labour preferred for Labour Leavers.

Byronic said:

Relax, PB rightwingers.

After my first twitch at the late Labour surge, which I felt in my waters before the pollsters realised, I sense a VERY late swing back to the Tories, as voters confront the REALITY of a Jew-hating Marxist government

I had lunch with a hardcore Labour friend (who hates Corbyn) today. He said that in the polling booth he will probably grimace and reluctantly vote Labour, but he also said that his parents who are Tories just LOVE Boris and they will eagerly vote Boris.

It is reluctance versus eagerness. Eagerness wins, for Boris. Probably a small majority of 20-30 as I predicted at the beginning of this entertaining shitshow.