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Past performance is not a guide to the future. A caveat plastered all over investment products which might usefully be remembered by those anxiously scanning polls or those politicians explaining why the PM’s success in getting a revised Withdrawal Agreement means that he can reach an FTA with the EU before the transition period ends in 385 days time.
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First0
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Get Brexit done is clearly overplayed to give the impression that it will all go away, but perhaps I overestimate the public in thinking that most people do know that in reality only this phase will be done, and many regard that as sufficient progress - it's clearly done enough for opponents, hence fighting so hard to not be this much done.0
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Trade will become a political issue for a few years in the same way that the EU was. It will annoy the European-aligned voters, the same way the EU used to annoy America-aligned voters. Chlorinated chicken = bendy bananas, except not a fiction propagated by crap biased journalists like, well I believe at the time that was propagated by B Johnson.0
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4th like the Lib Dems0
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It will done in the sense of getting it off the front page and the news bulletins, but in all other senses it will never really be done and will impact our future for generations.0
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My favourite straw in the wind is 'judge how bad things are by who is sent out to do the TV interviews'.
Labour have put up Andy McDonald for Brillo this evening. If I see Barry Gardiner later, I'll know the jig's up.0 -
@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,1741 -
Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.0 -
If Boris wins a majority then the Withdrawal Agreement will pass and there will thus be an agreed completed Deal, No Deal will no longer be possible and FTA talks will begin with the EU and it is misleading to talk about No Deal still in such a scenario, No Deal is only no completed and passed Withdrawal Agreement.
It may be we can complete a FTA within a year and before the transition period ends or it may take a bit longer but a FTA will be done2 -
What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!wooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,1740 -
Getting Brexit Done is an expertly crafted election slogan. Might be a difficult promise to keep.0
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Boris Johnson is a racist so whatevs.Banterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.0 -
Told you all.numbertwelve said:
What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!wooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,174
The polls in the last week are useless due to herding.0 -
It could have been Dianne Abbott... (said in the voice of the Jon Culshaw version of brillo)AramintaMoonbeamQC said:My favourite straw in the wind is 'judge how bad things are by who is sent out to do the TV interviews'.
Labour have put up Andy McDonald for Brillo this evening. If I see Barry Gardiner later, I'll know the jig's up.1 -
To be herding the figures would need to move...numbertwelve said:
What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!wooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,1740 -
They didn’t herd at all in 2017 to be fair.speedy2 said:
Told you all.numbertwelve said:
What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!wooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,174
The polls in the last week are useless due to herding.0 -
The polls are probably useless whenever. They are almost certainly right in predicting the Tories are ahead, but beyond that I am doubtful. They might turn out to be bang on this time but if they are it will be down more to luck than judgement, in my opinion.speedy2 said:
Told you all.numbertwelve said:
What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!wooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,174
The polls in the last week are useless due to herding.0 -
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!1 -
Polls towards the end of the election campaign are, by their very nature, impacted less by don't knows. you can see the don't know effects as the election date gets closer.speedy2 said:
Told you all.numbertwelve said:
What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!wooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,174
The polls in the last week are useless due to herding.0 -
Tomorrow the words brisk and sluggish get well deserved extra outings3
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No change is great newswooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,174
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That makes about thirty thousand people, more than will vote for the the guy who chose to write about "piccaninnies" and "bum boys". Doubtless words used completely in irony and not to entertain, or to belittle anybody except his purported targets, but in that case where were his fedora and neckbeard?Banterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.0 -
12 from Opinium down 3
9 from BMG and PanelBase no change
9 is the number used for the MRP0 -
"Actual"?bigjohnowls said:
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!0 -
It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.0
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Of course nothing is over but...
I just wanted to thank Mike, the header writers and everyone for the content over the last few weeks. Lots to think about. Various comments have struck me as truth that have altered my thinking here and there.
Try to remember that things are rarely as bad as you fear or as good as you hope. The British public tend to be wise in the end - let's try to trust them.6 -
Steady. I predict steady.wooliedyed said:Tomorrow the words brisk and sluggish get well deserved extra outings
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No, I don't think he is a racist, and certainly not indisputably so. He is however a liar and a charlatan. He may not be the first such PM in my lifetime of whom that could be said, but he would certainly be the first who was known to be such before he was elected.bigjohnowls said:
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!0 -
And picking up, dont forget picking upSandyRentool said:
Steady. I predict steady.wooliedyed said:Tomorrow the words brisk and sluggish get well deserved extra outings
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His actions have shown that he may not be racist (or antisemitic) but he is, as are a large number of the hard left, blind to the antisemitism. his actions have shown as much.Peter_the_Punter said:
No, I don't think he is a racist, and certainly not indisputably so. He is however a liar and a charlatan. He may not be the first such PM in my lifetime of whom that could be said, but he would certainly the first who was known to be such before he was elected.bigjohnowls said:
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!1 -
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
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PB keeps getting better after 15 years, amazingly, even though the election has been kind of meh as a betting event, with so much Butlerian indeterminancy around what way results might look. And the comments section is far improved from a few years ago.ExiledInScotland said:Of course nothing is over but...
I just wanted to thank Mike, the header writers and everyone for the content over the last few weeks. Lots to think about. Various comments have struck me as truth that have altered my thinking here and there.
Try to remember that things are rarely as bad as you fear or as good as you hope. The British public tend to be wise in the end - let's try to trust them.1 -
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Could the Lib-Dems poll under 10%?dr_spyn said:
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BXP share where they’re standing = 8%
Does that seem rather high?0 -
What does he think Jezza will do?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I tell you what, if it rains here tonight it’s going to be bloody dangerous tomorrow. I left school at 5 and I had to de-ice the car.0
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That's a shock.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I as a Conservative generally find being on the other side of Peter Oborne to be a Good Thing™TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.SandyRentool said:
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
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Poor old Peter O lost his mind a while ago.TheScreamingEagles said:2 -
ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?
*lies buried under weight of opinion polls*1 -
How is it herding if they aren't changing?numbertwelve said:
What’s that sound? I think it’s the sound of herding!!!wooliedyed said:@PanelbaseMD @panelbase GB poll (changes since Dec 04-06)
Westminster #GE2019
Con 43% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
Lib Dem 11% (-2%)
Brexit Party 4% (+1%)*
Green 3% (+1%)
*BXP share where they’re standing = 8% (+1%)
EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)
Dec 10-11
Sample 3,174
Good news for team Blue as it suggests the last few days have had no significant impact in VI.0 -
Blimey. That's an interesting call.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I've never knowingly agreed with the twat on anything...Philip_Thompson said:
I as a Conservative generally find being on the other side of Peter Oborne to be a Good Thing™TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
I've not been online much today - has there been a "Herdson Moment" to be aware of?0
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That’s an awfully long winded way of saying ‘because I’m a nihilist who doesn’t think consistency is important.’TheScreamingEagles said:
(For the record, he’s right about Johnson, but totally wrong about Corbyn.)0 -
My Polly patented nose-peg has arrived via Amazon Prime in time for tomorrow....0
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Generous and well saidExiledInScotland said:Of course nothing is over but...
I just wanted to thank Mike, the header writers and everyone for the content over the last few weeks. Lots to think about. Various comments have struck me as truth that have altered my thinking here and there.
Try to remember that things are rarely as bad as you fear or as good as you hope. The British public tend to be wise in the end - let's try to trust them.
I said to my good lady today whatever happens tomorrow the mps have been elected into a fresh HOC and there can be no complaints as there was with so many mps just squatting in the last session1 -
All the polls seems to be herding to a nine point lead. Not sure if there are any sons involved.Philip_Thompson said:I've not been online much today - has there been a "Herdson Moment" to be aware of?
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PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
No, I don't think he is a racist, and certainly not indisputably so. He is however a liar and a charlatan. He may not be the first such PM in my lifetime of whom that could be said, but he would certainly be the first who was known to be such before he was elected.bigjohnowls said:
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!
Do you know any other non racists who talk about "watermelon smiles" and "Piccaninnies" or that say "Islam is the problem."or compare Muslim women to letter boxes or Bank Robbers?0 -
Not if you have been following his column for a while.Andy_JS said:
That's a shock.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Are you in a Lib-Lab marginal ?FrancisUrquhart said:My Polly patented nose-peg has arrived via Amazon Prime in time for tomorrow....
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David Bellamy has died...
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/dec/11/tv-naturalist-david-bellamy-dies-aged-860 -
If the transition period ends and there is no agreement, that is a no deal exit.HYUFD said:If Boris wins a majority then the Withdrawal Agreement will pass and there will thus be an agreed completed Deal, No Deal will no longer be possible and FTA talks will begin with the EU and it is misleading to talk about No Deal still in such a scenario, No Deal is only no completed and passed Withdrawal Agreement.
It may be we can complete a FTA within a year and before the transition period ends or it may take a bit longer but a FTA will be done
Although of course we know that Bozo will extend. Whatever he says.1 -
Well have the same impact as the fifteen Labour MPs saying don’t vote Corbyn I expect: negligible.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.Andy_JS said:
The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.SandyRentool said:
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
0 -
bigjohnowls said:
PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
No, I don't think he is a racist, and certainly not indisputably so. He is however a liar and a charlatan. He may not be the first such PM in my lifetime of whom that could be said, but he would certainly be the first who was known to be such before he was elected.bigjohnowls said:
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!
Do you know any other non racists who talk about "watermelon smiles" and "Piccaninnies" or that say "Islam is the problem."or compare Muslim women to letter boxes or Bank Robbers?
5 -
wooliedyed said:
Tomorrow the words brisk and sluggish get well deserved extra outings
Yes, I had forgotten the ritual morning of completely useless anecdotes from polling stations. A good reason to go out campaigning2 -
Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hoursAramintaMoonbeamQC said:ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?
*lies buried under weight of opinion polls*
Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?1 -
We’re not getting an ICM poll tonight .
Having checked their twitter feed their final poll was the one released on Monday .0 -
Well it's hard to judge I'd have thought given we cannot prove what would happen if they didn't act. It's like the Don Valley result - if it goes Con some people will be laughing at Caroline Flint and saying she did all that Brexit friendly stuff for nothing, but for all we know the Tories would have won it even easier without her actions.Fysics_Teacher said:
Well have the same impact as the fifteen Labour MPs saying don’t vote Corbyn I expect: negligible.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Did Boris shag his missus?Fysics_Teacher said:
Well have the same impact as the fifteen Labour MPs saying don’t vote Corbyn I expect: negligible.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He actually said it was OK for Muslim women to wear veils (bear in mind that not all Muslim women do so).bigjohnowls said:
PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
No, I don't think he is a racist, and certainly not indisputably so. He is however a liar and a charlatan. He may not be the first such PM in my lifetime of whom that could be said, but he would certainly be the first who was known to be such before he was elected.bigjohnowls said:
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!
Do you know any other non racists who talk about "watermelon smiles" and "Piccaninnies" or that say "Islam is the problem."or compare Muslim women to letter boxes or Bank Robbers?0 -
Oborne long ago ceased to be a Conservative in any sense. He's a theocrat, who sees Islam as filling the role that Christianity once filled in this country.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Put it all in, Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hoursAramintaMoonbeamQC said:ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?
*lies buried under weight of opinion polls*
Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?1 -
NoPhilip_Thompson said:I've not been online much today - has there been a "Herdson Moment" to be aware of?
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Yes, why not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hoursAramintaMoonbeamQC said:ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?
*lies buried under weight of opinion polls*
Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?0 -
‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>SandyRentool said:
So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.Andy_JS said:
The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.SandyRentool said:
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
Who has been excluded?0 -
Have you actually read any of the items you are quoting? I suspect not, but don't let it stop you making a fool of yourself.bigjohnowls said:
PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
No, I don't think he is a racist, and certainly not indisputably so. He is however a liar and a charlatan. He may not be the first such PM in my lifetime of whom that could be said, but he would certainly be the first who was known to be such before he was elected.bigjohnowls said:
Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racistBanterman said:Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.
Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.
Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!
Do you know any other non racists who talk about "watermelon smiles" and "Piccaninnies" or that say "Islam is the problem."or compare Muslim women to letter boxes or Bank Robbers?0 -
On the whole, not much impact from Johnson's antics on Monday in the final polls.0
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A 2018 study estimated that actual turnout of GE17 could have been nearer 78% than 68%, because of all the duplicate entries on the register and people who had died. Basically the published electorate is way too large.
Food for thought when using published electorate numbers for boundary reviews.0 -
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Good news for my prediction of a turnout above 70% for the first time since 1997.IanB2 said:A 2018 study estimated that actual turnout of GE17 could have been nearer 78% than 68%, because of all the duplicate entries on the register and people who had died. Basically the published electorate is way too large.
Food for thought when using published electorate numbers for boundary reviews.0 -
Who is the “his” in that sentence?argyllrs said:
Did Boris shag his missus?Fysics_Teacher said:
Well have the same impact as the fifteen Labour MPs saying don’t vote Corbyn I expect: negligible.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Yes, I intend to vote as close to 7am as possible... my own vote will be cast in a brisk manner.IanB2 said:wooliedyed said:Tomorrow the words brisk and sluggish get well deserved extra outings
Yes, I had forgotten the ritual morning of completely useless anecdotes from polling stations. A good reason to go out campaigning
0 -
We'll just have to extrapolate it to a 5% lead then.nico67 said:We’re not getting an ICM poll tonight .
Having checked their twitter feed their final poll was the one released on Monday .
(ICM's previous four had leads of 10%, 7%, 7%, and most recently 6%.)0 -
Just seen the most dire Lib Dem policy - looks suspiciously like "Help to rent". Sweet Lord how did they come up with that one - we need to be reducing landlord benefit, not increasing it.0
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Not if the current register is similarAndy_JS said:
Good news for my prediction of a turnout above 70% for the first time since 1997.IanB2 said:A 2018 study estimated that actual turnout of GE17 could have been nearer 78% than 68%, because of all the duplicate entries on the register and people who had died. Basically the published electorate is way too large.
Food for thought when using published electorate numbers for boundary reviews.0 -
Fair enough - it's just that the previous YouGov MRP from November isn't in the Wiki table!Benpointer said:
Yes, why not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hoursAramintaMoonbeamQC said:ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?
*lies buried under weight of opinion polls*
Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?0 -
Vote early and (to PB Tories only) vote often!StevenWhaley said:
Yes, I intend to vote as close to 7am as possible... my own vote will be cast in a brisk manner.IanB2 said:wooliedyed said:Tomorrow the words brisk and sluggish get well deserved extra outings
Yes, I had forgotten the ritual morning of completely useless anecdotes from polling stations. A good reason to go out campaigning0 -
What I find strange is that about 12 million people on the register won't bother to vote tomorrow, including some who've specially registered in the last few weeks.SandyRentool said:
So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.Andy_JS said:
The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.SandyRentool said:
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
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Not even a candidate hiding from Piers Morgan in a refrigerator. An extra 20 million votes from the Piers Morgan haters?Big_G_NorthWales said:
NoPhilip_Thompson said:I've not been online much today - has there been a "Herdson Moment" to be aware of?
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We may find that the final polls have a lead that is basically the same as where we were 6 weeks ago. The only difference being that Tories squeezed Brexit Party and Labour the Lib Dems.Chris said:On the whole, not much impact from Johnson's antics on Monday in the final polls.
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I think they've taken it out again as it "isn't a proper poll" lolSunil_Prasannan said:
Fair enough - it's just that the previous YouGov MRP from November isn't in the Wiki table!Benpointer said:
Yes, why not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hoursAramintaMoonbeamQC said:ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?
*lies buried under weight of opinion polls*
Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?0 -
2017 GE Electorate = 46,843,896.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
So up 1.4% - I guess that's roughly in line with population increase.
Implies no change in % of people registered / not registered.
So all those articles about registration surges were complete rubbish - surprise, surprise!
And none of the journalists who wrote those articles have bothered to follow up the actual data - again surprise, surprise!0 -
Why not just register everyone who has an NI number?Fysics_Teacher said:
‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>SandyRentool said:
So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.Andy_JS said:
The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.SandyRentool said:
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
Who has been excluded?0 -
If you are voting for a Marxist with the stench of anti Semitism around him you are no conservative and never will beTheScreamingEagles said:4 -
Sad news. I saw him give a lecture about 10 years ago (which included being very sceptical about climate change).FrancisUrquhart said:David Bellamy has died...
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/dec/11/tv-naturalist-david-bellamy-dies-aged-860 -
Auto-enrolment of students is certainly part of the later. They agree for the uni to do it on their behalf when they register for their academic year.Andy_JS said:
What I find strange is that about 12 million people on the register won't bother to vote tomorrow, including some who've specially registered in the last few weeks.SandyRentool said:
So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.Andy_JS said:
The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.SandyRentool said:
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
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Shouldn't the register be "fresher" and so have fewer mistakes in it as old expired entries get purged near the end of the year and that should have just been done?IanB2 said:
Not if the current register is similarAndy_JS said:
Good news for my prediction of a turnout above 70% for the first time since 1997.IanB2 said:A 2018 study estimated that actual turnout of GE17 could have been nearer 78% than 68%, because of all the duplicate entries on the register and people who had died. Basically the published electorate is way too large.
Food for thought when using published electorate numbers for boundary reviews.0 -
Well it certainly ain’t BoJo...the whole problem* is he shags ladies other than the missis.Fysics_Teacher said:
Who is the “his” in that sentence?argyllrs said:
Did Boris shag his missus?Fysics_Teacher said:
Well have the same impact as the fifteen Labour MPs saying don’t vote Corbyn I expect: negligible.TheScreamingEagles said:
*OK, not the whole problem. The racism, dishonesty and incompetence are issues as well.0 -
Am watching Andrew Neil on BBC, has someone put too much caffeine in Jeremy Vine's coffee?
I'm not sure that The BBC has learnt from the coverage in 2015, and 2017. The only saving grace is John Curtice discussing what to look for on Friday morning.1 -
That is a bit dodgy BenBenpointer said:
We'll just have to extrapolate it to a 5% lead then.nico67 said:We’re not getting an ICM poll tonight .
Having checked their twitter feed their final poll was the one released on Monday .
(ICM's previous four had leads of 10%, 7%, 7%, and most recently 6%.)
At least average them 7.5%0 -
What's stopping them registering?SandyRentool said:
So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.Andy_JS said:
The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.SandyRentool said:
I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
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LOL. How many posts were there about the number of new registrations? The vast majority were probably already on there.MikeL said:
2017 GE Electorate = 46,843,896.Andy_JS said:It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.
So up 1.4% - I guess that's roughly in line with population increase.
Implies no change in % of people registered / not registered.
So all those articles about registration surges were complete rubbish - surprise, surprise!
And none of the journalists who wrote those articles have bothered to follow up the actual data - again surprise, surprise!0 -
It'll be good to see the back of this parliament. Let's hope the 650 odd MPs who get in can find a way to make things work, in or out of the EU.0
