politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters on CON & the LDs are more bullish than the MRP project
Comments
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Well, as I`ve said before, I`m assuming that The Brexit Party arrow will be angled so as to point at the Conservative candidate. Right, Mr Farage?IanB2 said:
Voters will be mesmerised by that Brexit Party arrow again, and they will top the poll.Stocky said:
This may be a daft question, but is there a risk that voters look for "Boris" on the ballot paper and get confused?MarqueeMark said:
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how was it ?MarqueeMark said:Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.1 -
Given that Portillo will in time become a name that few remember, do we think Portillo moment will acquire a new moniker, or if it will be one of those things where it lasts long past when anyone even knew where the name came from as a description?0
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Yeah, that's right. Should've gone private so that if he gets hit by a violent tosser, at least his fillings would have stayed in!Stocky said:
One has to wonder about these anecdotes. Knocked fillings out?! Get a new dentist.AlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=210 -
Nothing to stop you?Stocky said:
Like the Daily Mail?malcolmg said:
Yes they may have to tell the truth rather than just be state propaganda unitMysticrose said:
The answer is to cut the BBC free of its licence fee mooring.Casino_Royale said:I think it’s really hard being BBC political editor. I used to slag off both Andrew Marr (up Blair’s arse) and Nick Robinson (toenails Robinson).
The fact is that as ‘establishment’ political journalists they get privileged information first from No.10 and other Government sources first as they always want to make BBC headline news. And the political editor has to make very quick decisions on that.
So they often end up breaking big news first (that sometimes isn’t the full picture) and by necessity end up having close relationships with Government.
They might then eventually learn to find perspective.
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.0 -
The BMG delivers both good and bad news for the Tories and Labour .
A 9 point lead is good for them but the relatively high scores for the Lib Dems and Greens should be a concern as they’re likely to get squeezed by Labour on the day .
There’s no way the Greens are polling 4% and I’d be very surprised if the Lib Dems Get 14%. The fieldwork dates are pretty long between the 6th and 11th so we don’t know how much variation there’s been .
Regardless another good poll for the Tories in the grand scheme of things but also one that still leaves room for some major drama on Election Day .0 -
You don't see many 17 point swings. And Portillo was the future at the time.kle4 said:Given that Portillo will in time become a name that few remember, do we think Portillo moment will acquire a new moniker, or if it will be one of those things where it lasts long past when anyone even knew where the name came from as a description?
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Am afraid I didn't have the pleasure of East Germany.IanB2 said:
In East Germany I believe it was typically between ten and fifteen years?funkhauser said:Slackbladder said:
Wait until labour nationalise it, and you'll be waiting 6 weeks.IanB2 said:
Bizarrely having been told by BT that it would be out of action until the engineer arrives, the guy phones back to say it’s working again (which it is), but might die again at any moment. Or come and go as it feels like.TudorRose said:
It's a sign! (I don't know what it means though).IanB2 said:Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
So my election night comes with added suspense.
6 weeks! I remember waiting 3 months to get a new phone line.
'The lives of Others' said it all.1 -
Always welcome a free hit, it’s actually quite good fun if you think both heaps of dung smell differently but they are still heaps of dung.Stocky said:
I suppose I asked for that.nichomar said:
Yes any one that wants to vote for ‘Boris’ is confused or deranged.Stocky said:
This may be a daft question, but is there a risk that voters look for "Boris" on the ballot paper and get confused?MarqueeMark said:
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how was it ?MarqueeMark said:Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
I`ll line them up, you ....0 -
You could be onto something with this, particularly in the realm of politics and elections, a bit like the word gerrymandering, from Elbridge Gerry and salamander. It's now already become permanent shorthand, for schadenfreude at the fall of the previously mighty.kle4 said:Given that Portillo will in time become a name that few remember, do we think Portillo moment will acquire a new moniker, or if it will be one of those things where it lasts long past when anyone even knew where the name came from as a description?
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I wasn`t being facetious about the old chap - merely doubting the truth of the anecdote (probably a journo exaggerating the story).twistedfirestopper3 said:
Yeah, that's right. Should've gone private so that if he gets hit by a violent tosser, at least his fillings would have stayed in!Stocky said:
One has to wonder about these anecdotes. Knocked fillings out?! Get a new dentist.AlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=210 -
It has always been so. I once had a woman set her dogs on me. Also been spat at and threatened with violence. I suspect many who have canvassed have similar stories.AlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=21
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Tons of assessments already done on Corbyn, so nothing new to add. Except that if there was no Corbyn and no Brexit, then Tories would be looking at 200- 250 seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And now can we have a fair assessment of Corbyn, just for balancemelcf said:So, at the end of this election campaign, Bojo isn't exactly a messiah for the Tories, as hoped. If he could only barely muster a 10-20 seat difference, compared to 2017. Definitely didn't come across as charismatic or someone with a magnetic personality.
Despite having the whole 'leave' vote for himself, a much villified Corbyn as an opponent and backing of the establishment. He still comes across as pretty mediocre. An Etonian, who claims to be a skilled debater, barely drew with a jaded Corbyn in most debates. Besides fleeing from one with Andrew Neil.
Like a true sociopath, he does seem to be a genius in stirring the pot though. Which is identifying what really grinds people's gears and playing on those insecurities. In this case it's xenophobia, fear of being swamped by immigrants and the most trending one, Islamophobia. Besides this skill, he has nothing much to offer and was least bothered to even show mock empathy towards a sick child. Some leader, eh
After 10 years in power, all they have to show is 'Get Brexit done' and a fear of Corbyn. Besides promising to replace 20,000 police officer with 21,000 already sacked and some similar number of nurses!
So be kind to Corbyn, he's your best vote catcher. Better than even Bojo and his moronic 'Get Brexit done'0 -
They aren’t, until tomorrow nightkle4 said:
Ah, I think this explains a text i received not long ago from a corbynista relative asking me how postal votes are counted.bigjohnowls said:Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?
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Tonight is interview night?Stocky said:
Like the Daily Mail?malcolmg said:
Yes they may have to tell the truth rather than just be state propaganda unitMysticrose said:
The answer is to cut the BBC free of its licence fee mooring.Casino_Royale said:I think it’s really hard being BBC political editor. I used to slag off both Andrew Marr (up Blair’s arse) and Nick Robinson (toenails Robinson).
The fact is that as ‘establishment’ political journalists they get privileged information first from No.10 and other Government sources first as they always want to make BBC headline news. And the political editor has to make very quick decisions on that.
So they often end up breaking big news first (that sometimes isn’t the full picture) and by necessity end up having close relationships with Government.
They might then eventually learn to find perspective.
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.0 -
What Andrew Neil with Boris?IanB2 said:
Tonight is interview night?Stocky said:
Like the Daily Mail?malcolmg said:
Yes they may have to tell the truth rather than just be state propaganda unitMysticrose said:
The answer is to cut the BBC free of its licence fee mooring.Casino_Royale said:I think it’s really hard being BBC political editor. I used to slag off both Andrew Marr (up Blair’s arse) and Nick Robinson (toenails Robinson).
The fact is that as ‘establishment’ political journalists they get privileged information first from No.10 and other Government sources first as they always want to make BBC headline news. And the political editor has to make very quick decisions on that.
So they often end up breaking big news first (that sometimes isn’t the full picture) and by necessity end up having close relationships with Government.
They might then eventually learn to find perspective.
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.1 -
Justin hasn’t been around much recently though, so things are improving.Jonathan said:
The violence starts with violent language on social media. PB is not immune.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This violence is just wrong on so many levels and across politicsAlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=210 -
You'd be forgiven for thinking that it's too difficult to put an X on a piece of paper.kle4 said:
I confess I don't understand the rationale behind such a method in the first place, it seems like working from a point of wanting to use the latest toys and then finding a reason to do so.Jonathan said:Goes to show that online voting can’t be a thing if your connection disappears at the key moment due to a politically motivated BT engineer.
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Con Maj back to 1.39 on betfair
Con under 317 now 5.5.
DYOR.0 -
So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?0
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No, the violence starts with hysterical attacks on your political opponents. It doesn't matter how politely they're saidJonathan said:
The violence starts with violent language on social media. PB is not immune.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This violence is just wrong on so many levels and across politicsAlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=210 -
Our final General Election poll, conducted on behalf of The Herald, suggests the Conservatives have a 13% lead entering polling day.Slackbladder said:
Tory support is at its highest among the over 65s (62%), while those aged 18-34 are most likely to vote for Labour (53%).
The poll suggests that the Tories will receive between 43% and 49% of the vote share, compared to between 30% and 36% for Labour.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to receive around 8%, UKIP 5% and SNP 4%.
You can read The Herald’s article about the results here.
Same agency at the same time in June 2017. Same bs0 -
This was pointed out before ever he became leader. George Osborne is reputed to have said, ‘This is proof God is a Conservative,’ when Corbyn was elected,melcf said:
Tons of assessments already done on Corbyn, so nothing new to add. Except that if there was no Corbyn and no Brexit, then Tories would be looking at 200- 250 seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And now can we have a fair assessment of Corbyn, just for balancemelcf said:So, at the end of this election campaign, Bojo isn't exactly a messiah for the Tories, as hoped. If he could only barely muster a 10-20 seat difference, compared to 2017. Definitely didn't come across as charismatic or someone with a magnetic personality.
Despite having the whole 'leave' vote for himself, a much villified Corbyn as an opponent and backing of the establishment. He still comes across as pretty mediocre. An Etonian, who claims to be a skilled debater, barely drew with a jaded Corbyn in most debates. Besides fleeing from one with Andrew Neil.
Like a true sociopath, he does seem to be a genius in stirring the pot though. Which is identifying what really grinds people's gears and playing on those insecurities. In this case it's xenophobia, fear of being swamped by immigrants and the most trending one, Islamophobia. Besides this skill, he has nothing much to offer and was least bothered to even show mock empathy towards a sick child. Some leader, eh
After 10 years in power, all they have to show is 'Get Brexit done' and a fear of Corbyn. Besides promising to replace 20,000 police officer with 21,000 already sacked and some similar number of nurses!
So be kind to Corbyn, he's your best vote catcher. Better than even Bojo and his moronic 'Get Brexit done'
Labour members incandescent at the prospect of a racist, lying buffoon from an affluent background in Downing Street with a majority need to take a long hard look at themselves and wonder why they made him their leader in the first place.0 -
Good for you, go on then.Stocky said:
Like the Daily Mail?malcolmg said:
Yes they may have to tell the truth rather than just be state propaganda unitMysticrose said:
The answer is to cut the BBC free of its licence fee mooring.Casino_Royale said:I think it’s really hard being BBC political editor. I used to slag off both Andrew Marr (up Blair’s arse) and Nick Robinson (toenails Robinson).
The fact is that as ‘establishment’ political journalists they get privileged information first from No.10 and other Government sources first as they always want to make BBC headline news. And the political editor has to make very quick decisions on that.
So they often end up breaking big news first (that sometimes isn’t the full picture) and by necessity end up having close relationships with Government.
They might then eventually learn to find perspective.
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.
Personally I don't care for the BBC but do watch other live TV and am forced at the penalty of prison to pay for the BBC even if I want to watch other channels. As for radio, plenty of stations exist with commercials. If you want to pay for R4 or listen to ads to pay for it good for you but why should I be taxed to support your interests?1 -
Indeed so, but it was a curious question to ask and this is from someone who was of the view that May never went to Salisbury after the Novichok incident and the BBC edited her into clips of people there (and it was never Russia anyway).IanB2 said:
They aren’t, until tomorrow nightkle4 said:
Ah, I think this explains a text i received not long ago from a corbynista relative asking me how postal votes are counted.bigjohnowls said:Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?
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Must be several more than that, surely.FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
I sense a nervousness among the pollsters to publish and stick out, though, after 2017.0 -
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
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There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
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Is it possible to be addicted to polls?
And is there any known cure?1 -
Election night is the only time in the year I watch BBC TV. Other than that, I listen to Choral Evensong on R3, plus about 5 seconds of the Today programme every morning because Mrs C has it as her alarm clock. That's it. (But Mrs C has bought a TV licence because the little guy likes CBeebies and she's got more of a conscience than I have.)Stocky said:I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.
(Evensong from Rugby School this afternoon on R3 was outstanding. Worth listening to on catch-up. Didn't rate the closing voluntary, though.)0 -
Well if its a hung parliament you won't have to worry about going cold turkey....ydoethur said:Is it possible to be addicted to polls?
And is there any known cure?0 -
I am going to find out where you live and come round with a sledgehammer, and not just to say howdeedo, you bastard.ydoethur said:
Justin hasn’t been around much recently though, so things are improving.Jonathan said:
The violence starts with violent language on social media. PB is not immune.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This violence is just wrong on so many levels and across politicsAlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=21
Actually I am not, nobody thinks I am, and nobody is going to be pushed one picometre closer to political violence by anything they read on here.
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polite hysterical attacks?Stereotomy said:
No, the violence starts with hysterical attacks on your political opponents. It doesn't matter how politely they're saidJonathan said:
The violence starts with violent language on social media. PB is not immune.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This violence is just wrong on so many levels and across politicsAlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=210 -
Jonathan said:
The violence starts with violent language on social media. PB is not immune.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This violence is just wrong on so many levels and across politicsAlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=21
Completely agree and unless & until there is some control over social media it will unfortunately continue.
On the spot fines for social media companies that allow violent language?0 -
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45/36FrancisUrquhart said:I have a question...Do we know...
Is it better or no difference in terms of seats for Tories to win by 9, but it is say 41/32 vs 45/36 ?
At that level the smaller parties especially the SNP get squashed by both the Conservatives and Labour and the grey area of Hung Parliament shrinks.0 -
Kuenssberg could be in trouble:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html0 -
Is it me, or is this the quietest election campaign for a long time?
I've seen almost no evidence of electioneering wherever I've been, Locally here in the safe seat of Romford, the Tories have never got out their stakeboards, as in previous years, and have done just the one leaflet delivery. Clearly they thought it was such a good leaflet that I got it again in the post to make sure I read it. I also had a letter before my postal vote arrived, and what looked like their canvas calling card, put through the letter box without calling (I was in). Presumably the local party was told to get down to Rainham and Dagenham. I had Labour, Green and LD addresses in the post only in the last few days. A couple of times I've seen Tory and Labour activists leafletting at the station, but less often than in previous elections.
Travelling around, nearby I have also seen no Tory posters at all in either Upminster & Hornchurch or Brentwood & Ongar, but I have seen a couple of LD diamonds in the latter. In central London I've seen a few window posters (mostly LD) in Westminster and a scattering of LD and Labour in other Islington/Camden/Lambeth/Southwark seats.
Presumably this points to very targeted activity in battleground seats, but it does leave a feeling that all parties are taking the electorate for granted, even more than ever.0 -
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That poll will calm a few nerves I expect, including mine. 9 points after a terrible few days is actually pretty darned good. MoE in mind of course, but 5 or 6 points would have been a near disaster for the Tories.
So what's 9 points in the calculator?0 -
No change is good newsSlackbladder said:
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Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
Matt wining as usual.....spudgfsh said:
twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1204815303034724353
saw this and it made me chuckle...0 -
Try this guy:ydoethur said:Is it possible to be addicted to polls?
And is there any known cure?
https://twitter.com/ProfBritPol_PhD1 -
He's occasionally overhyped, but that is very good.spudgfsh said:https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1204815303034724353
saw this and it made me chuckle...0 -
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
(Former) Conservative mantra?BluerBlue said:0 -
Should have known better.ydoethur said:Kuenssberg could be in trouble:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html0 -
Given he does what 200 (?) a year of these, it is bloody amazing how many times he hits the spot. No other cartoonist is close.kle4 said:
He's occasionally overhyped, but that is very good.spudgfsh said:https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1204815303034724353
saw this and it made me chuckle...2 -
We had those sort of leads in polls last time. The raw data showed something different. The raw data was correct.Jason said:That poll will calm a few nerves I expect, including mine. 9 points after a terrible few days is actually pretty darned good. MoE in mind of course, but 5 or 6 points would have been a near disaster for the Tories.
So what's 9 points in the calculator?
How much reweighting has been done here?0 -
Definitely, and very similar to my earlier estimates for most of the campaign, without wanting to congratulate myself too much. I've revised my forecast down to 0-15 , though - let's see if that's still as useful.dr_spyn said:0 -
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
Completely accurate.spudgfsh said:https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1204815303034724353
saw this and it made me chuckle...
One pollster says Hung Parliament
Another pollster says small majority.
And the final one says Landslide.1 -
I don't know, you tell me.ydoethur said:
We had those sort of leads in polls last time. The raw data showed something different. The raw data was correct.Jason said:That poll will calm a few nerves I expect, including mine. 9 points after a terrible few days is actually pretty darned good. MoE in mind of course, but 5 or 6 points would have been a near disaster for the Tories.
So what's 9 points in the calculator?
How much reweighting has been done here?0 -
I think he does more than that. He does about five a day, six days a week. The best is chosen for publication.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given he does what 200 (?) a year of these, it is bloody amazing how many times he hits the spot. No other cartoonist is close.kle4 said:
He's occasionally overhyped, but that is very good.spudgfsh said:https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1204815303034724353
saw this and it made me chuckle...
Of course, the other four may not be very good.0 -
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
It's all going on in the marginals. I live in the Canterbury constituency and had a deluge of leaflets from Tories and Labour and lots of campaigners and street stalls for Rosie Duffield. And was in Eastbourne today and, well, it's pretty lively there as well! (Including the incumbent telling a voter to "fuck off" when asked what he stands for...)PJH said:Is it me, or is this the quietest election campaign for a long time?
I've seen almost no evidence of electioneering wherever I've been, Locally here in the safe seat of Romford, the Tories have never got out their stakeboards, as in previous years, and have done just the one leaflet delivery. Clearly they thought it was such a good leaflet that I got it again in the post to make sure I read it. I also had a letter before my postal vote arrived, and what looked like their canvas calling card, put through the letter box without calling (I was in). Presumably the local party was told to get down to Rainham and Dagenham. I had Labour, Green and LD addresses in the post only in the last few days. A couple of times I've seen Tory and Labour activists leafletting at the station, but less often than in previous elections.
Travelling around, nearby I have also seen no Tory posters at all in either Upminster & Hornchurch or Brentwood & Ongar, but I have seen a couple of LD diamonds in the latter. In central London I've seen a few window posters (mostly LD) in Westminster and a scattering of LD and Labour in other Islington/Camden/Lambeth/Southwark seats.
Presumably this points to very targeted activity in battleground seats, but it does leave a feeling that all parties are taking the electorate for granted, even more than ever.0 -
Ha ha momentum activists have allegedly been placing bets on Labour majority to give a false impression0
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I feel like the result of a hung parliament with similar numbers to now is wrong in this, and there's a bigger range of options, with 20-40 majority being tight still, and above that being dominant.https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/12047779450233610240
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Spending their daddies money again?Floater said:Ha ha momentum activists have allegedly been placing bets on Labour majority to give a false impression
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I don't think it matters, surely? I can't believe it would possibly change anything in VI.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
If its hung parliament, I don't see that scenario. DUP aren't going to go near Boris and the EU aren't going to renegotiate yet again with a party with no majority.kle4 said:I feel like the result of a hung parliament with similar numbers to now is wrong in this, and there's a bigger range of options, with 20-40 majority being tight still, and above that being dominant.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1204777945023361024
It is another election.0 -
'Tomorrow is a new day - the future lies ahead!'BluerBlue said:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=i9yGi5fOt6Q0 -
There are some weird people about. As any canvasser knows.kle4 said:
Indeed so, but it was a curious question to ask and this is from someone who was of the view that May never went to Salisbury after the Novichok incident and the BBC edited her into clips of people there (and it was never Russia anyway).IanB2 said:
They aren’t, until tomorrow nightkle4 said:
Ah, I think this explains a text i received not long ago from a corbynista relative asking me how postal votes are counted.bigjohnowls said:Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?
One of my favourites was during my first successful local election. The big heraldic shields attached to the front gate should have been a warning, but anyhow the guy invited me straight in (another warning) and said there was something I could help him with (third warning). He was having trouble with the council because he had registered his house as a monastery with himself as the only monk, and was trying to persuade the council that as a religious institution his house was exempt from council tax. The council was having none of it and I had to wade through all the lengthy correspondence. Once we’d finished that I thought I could make an escape but then he produced another voluminous file full of 1970s press cuttings that apparently proved that his brother had been killed by the secret service who had made it look like a car accident.
That was one house that never got another canvass.
4 -
Sexist - could be mummies'.FrancisUrquhart said:
Spending their daddies money again?Floater said:Ha ha momentum activists have allegedly been placing bets on Labour majority to give a false impression
0 -
I thought it was outlawed and for anyone to report on itFrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.
There are some on here with better knowledge may well know the position ( I hope)0 -
So, anyone surprised?
http://hurryupharry.org/2019/12/10/labour-candidate-cites-red-army-faction-terrorist-as-inspiration/
He asserts that Rebecca Gordon-Nesbitt, the PPC for South Thanet, includes Meinhof in a list of ‘inspirations’0 -
The rules are you’re not allowed to poll on the actual day and show results before the polls shut . Their fieldwork is finished before any voting begins .FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.
Most countries don’t allow polling close to the election and personally I don’t think any poll results should be allowed in the print media itself on the day of the election .0 -
I think Mr Rentoul is letting his own bias show through here. Why would Boris go for a hard Brexit if he has a clear majority? He would not be reliant upon the ERG and is far more likely to push his deal through.kle4 said:I feel like the result of a hung parliament with similar numbers to now is wrong in this, and there's a bigger range of options, with 20-40 majority being tight still, and above that being dominant.https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1204777945023361024
0 -
Sorry, I should have also included Theys, Theirs, Its, Ze, Xe.....kle4 said:
Sexist - could be mummies'.FrancisUrquhart said:
Spending their daddies money again?Floater said:Ha ha momentum activists have allegedly been placing bets on Labour majority to give a false impression
0 -
1,000 was mentioned - would that change much?FrancisUrquhart said:
Spending their daddies money again?Floater said:Ha ha momentum activists have allegedly been placing bets on Labour majority to give a false impression
0 -
Sorry, I didn't make clear, I meant publication while polling going on.nico67 said:
The rules are you’re not allowed to poll on the actual day and show results before the polls shut . Their fieldwork is finished before any voting begins .FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.
Most countries don’t allow polling close to the election and personally I don’t think any poll results should be allowed in the print media itself on the day of the election .
I would say no polls a week before, but with like that tw@t last night (and experience from other countries) we will see on twitter vegetable prices etc.0 -
Polls in the final week are useless due to herding and I always discount them.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
Unfortunately yesterday's yougov's MRP has spooked me into taking them into account, something that I should never do.0 -
She said she received the information from "both sides". Her exact words were as follows: "on both sides people are telling me that the postal votes that are in are looking pretty grim for Labour in a lot of parts of the country." (my emphasis).contrarian said:Laura reported information she was told by labour activists, something that political reporters do all the time. She is merely acting as a conduit.
They have have given incorrect or even misleading information to Laura, who knows? caveat emptor.
The words "that are in" mean that the information must have come from the receiving centres. It can't have come from people who say they voted postally. Even if it did come from voters, it is unlawful to publish "any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted".
0 -
I don’t think they do they just release today’s polls tomorrow. There is a lot to be said for banning polls from two weeks out and the day before polling being a day of reflection, can anyone justify swaying the result based on a poll that may, whilst nor being deliberately misleading, comes out the night before? And then proven to be wrong.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
Oh the irony.ydoethur said:Kuenssberg could be in trouble:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html
The standard repeats her claim thereby advising all their readership and online as well1 -
I'd seriously consider voting or the latter incumbentKentRising said:
It's all going on in the marginals. I live in the Canterbury constituency and had a deluge of leaflets from Tories and Labour and lots of campaigners and street stalls for Rosie Duffield. And was in Eastbourne today and, well, it's pretty lively there as well! (Including the incumbent telling a voter to "fuck off" when asked what he stands for...)PJH said:Is it me, or is this the quietest election campaign for a long time?
I've seen almost no evidence of electioneering wherever I've been, Locally here in the safe seat of Romford, the Tories have never got out their stakeboards, as in previous years, and have done just the one leaflet delivery. Clearly they thought it was such a good leaflet that I got it again in the post to make sure I read it. I also had a letter before my postal vote arrived, and what looked like their canvas calling card, put through the letter box without calling (I was in). Presumably the local party was told to get down to Rainham and Dagenham. I had Labour, Green and LD addresses in the post only in the last few days. A couple of times I've seen Tory and Labour activists leafletting at the station, but less often than in previous elections.
Travelling around, nearby I have also seen no Tory posters at all in either Upminster & Hornchurch or Brentwood & Ongar, but I have seen a couple of LD diamonds in the latter. In central London I've seen a few window posters (mostly LD) in Westminster and a scattering of LD and Labour in other Islington/Camden/Lambeth/Southwark seats.
Presumably this points to very targeted activity in battleground seats, but it does leave a feeling that all parties are taking the electorate for granted, even more than ever.0 -
Sounds like the LibDems; Whining Here.FrancisUrquhart said:
Matt wining as usual.....spudgfsh said:
twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1204815303034724353
saw this and it made me chuckle...0 -
There is a definitely poll in the Evening Standard tomorrow, where they are gathering data upto until midnight tonight.nichomar said:
I don’t think they do they just release today’s polls tomorrow. There is a lot to be said for banning polls from two weeks out and the day before polling being a day of reflection, can anyone justify swaying the result based on a poll that may, whilst nor being deliberately misleading, comes out the night before? And then proven to be wrong.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
What’s wrong with these people? Old boy actually out and about doing his small part for democracy gets smacked in the mouth.AlastairMeeks said:Another case of violence against a canvasser:
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=21
Genuinely defies comprehension.1 -
Doesn’t look from the figures as if it’s been massively adjusted, I have to say.Jason said:
I don't know, you tell me.ydoethur said:
We had those sort of leads in polls last time. The raw data showed something different. The raw data was correct.Jason said:That poll will calm a few nerves I expect, including mine. 9 points after a terrible few days is actually pretty darned good. MoE in mind of course, but 5 or 6 points would have been a near disaster for the Tories.
So what's 9 points in the calculator?
How much reweighting has been done here?0 -
Surely Labour are winning Canterbury easily?KentRising said:
It's all going on in the marginals. I live in the Canterbury constituency and had a deluge of leaflets from Tories and Labour and lots of campaigners and street stalls for Rosie Duffield. And was in Eastbourne today and, well, it's pretty lively there as well! (Including the incumbent telling a voter to "fuck off" when asked what he stands for...)PJH said:Is it me, or is this the quietest election campaign for a long time?
I've seen almost no evidence of electioneering wherever I've been, Locally here in the safe seat of Romford, the Tories have never got out their stakeboards, as in previous years, and have done just the one leaflet delivery. Clearly they thought it was such a good leaflet that I got it again in the post to make sure I read it. I also had a letter before my postal vote arrived, and what looked like their canvas calling card, put through the letter box without calling (I was in). Presumably the local party was told to get down to Rainham and Dagenham. I had Labour, Green and LD addresses in the post only in the last few days. A couple of times I've seen Tory and Labour activists leafletting at the station, but less often than in previous elections.
Travelling around, nearby I have also seen no Tory posters at all in either Upminster & Hornchurch or Brentwood & Ongar, but I have seen a couple of LD diamonds in the latter. In central London I've seen a few window posters (mostly LD) in Westminster and a scattering of LD and Labour in other Islington/Camden/Lambeth/Southwark seats.
Presumably this points to very targeted activity in battleground seats, but it does leave a feeling that all parties are taking the electorate for granted, even more than ever.
0 -
Indeed - my favourite episodeIanB2 said:
Tonight is interview night?Stocky said:
Like the Daily Mail?malcolmg said:
Yes they may have to tell the truth rather than just be state propaganda unitMysticrose said:
The answer is to cut the BBC free of its licence fee mooring.Casino_Royale said:I think it’s really hard being BBC political editor. I used to slag off both Andrew Marr (up Blair’s arse) and Nick Robinson (toenails Robinson).
The fact is that as ‘establishment’ political journalists they get privileged information first from No.10 and other Government sources first as they always want to make BBC headline news. And the political editor has to make very quick decisions on that.
So they often end up breaking big news first (that sometimes isn’t the full picture) and by necessity end up having close relationships with Government.
They might then eventually learn to find perspective.
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.0 -
I hadn’t thought of that! Will she dob them in to the rozzers?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Oh the irony.ydoethur said:Kuenssberg could be in trouble:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html
The standard repeats her claim thereby advising all their readership and online as well0 -
They stop the polling at midnight, so it's not a problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought it was outlawed and for anyone to report on itFrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.
There are some on here with better knowledge may well know the position ( I hope)0 -
Yes, and they've worked it hard. Big increased majority, I think.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surely Labour are winning Canterbury easily?KentRising said:
It's all going on in the marginals. I live in the Canterbury constituency and had a deluge of leaflets from Tories and Labour and lots of campaigners and street stalls for Rosie Duffield. And was in Eastbourne today and, well, it's pretty lively there as well! (Including the incumbent telling a voter to "fuck off" when asked what he stands for...)PJH said:Is it me, or is this the quietest election campaign for a long time?
I've seen almost no evidence of electioneering wherever I've been, Locally here in the safe seat of Romford, the Tories have never got out their stakeboards, as in previous years, and have done just the one leaflet delivery. Clearly they thought it was such a good leaflet that I got it again in the post to make sure I read it. I also had a letter before my postal vote arrived, and what looked like their canvas calling card, put through the letter box without calling (I was in). Presumably the local party was told to get down to Rainham and Dagenham. I had Labour, Green and LD addresses in the post only in the last few days. A couple of times I've seen Tory and Labour activists leafletting at the station, but less often than in previous elections.
Travelling around, nearby I have also seen no Tory posters at all in either Upminster & Hornchurch or Brentwood & Ongar, but I have seen a couple of LD diamonds in the latter. In central London I've seen a few window posters (mostly LD) in Westminster and a scattering of LD and Labour in other Islington/Camden/Lambeth/Southwark seats.
Presumably this points to very targeted activity in battleground seats, but it does leave a feeling that all parties are taking the electorate for granted, even more than ever.0 -
That’s what I thought I Said!FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a definitely poll in the Evening Standard tomorrow, where they are gathering data upto until midnight tonight.nichomar said:
I don’t think they do they just release today’s polls tomorrow. There is a lot to be said for banning polls from two weeks out and the day before polling being a day of reflection, can anyone justify swaying the result based on a poll that may, whilst nor being deliberately misleading, comes out the night before? And then proven to be wrong.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I am comfortable will polling while voting is going on.nico67 said:
The poll normally comes out tomorrow morning for the Evening Standard . And it’s the only poll I know of that gets released on the day of the results .funkhauser said:
I completed an Ipsos Mori last night.nico67 said:
Yes normally Ipsos Mori .FrancisUrquhart said:
There is also one tomorrow morning as well right in the Evening Standard?nico67 said:
I read we’re due an ICM and Survation , and apparently Panelbase were going to be polling upto 2 pm today so that aswell .FrancisUrquhart said:So what other polls are we waiting for today? YouGov?
They do the latest polling right upto midnight tonight in the hope of seeing if there’s a late surge for a party .
Their 2017 poll was pretty accurate with the Tory result but did underestimate Labours by 4 points.0 -
Because it`s a public utility, like the NHS, libraries, roads and the royal family?Philip_Thompson said:
Good for you, go on then.Stocky said:
Like the Daily Mail?malcolmg said:
Yes they may have to tell the truth rather than just be state propaganda unitMysticrose said:
The answer is to cut the BBC free of its licence fee mooring.Casino_Royale said:I think it’s really hard being BBC political editor. I used to slag off both Andrew Marr (up Blair’s arse) and Nick Robinson (toenails Robinson).
The fact is that as ‘establishment’ political journalists they get privileged information first from No.10 and other Government sources first as they always want to make BBC headline news. And the political editor has to make very quick decisions on that.
So they often end up breaking big news first (that sometimes isn’t the full picture) and by necessity end up having close relationships with Government.
They might then eventually learn to find perspective.
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.
Personally I don't care for the BBC but do watch other live TV and am forced at the penalty of prison to pay for the BBC even if I want to watch other channels. As for radio, plenty of stations exist with commercials. If you want to pay for R4 or listen to ads to pay for it good for you but why should I be taxed to support your interests?0 -
The BMG has constantly had the lowest scores for the Tories so I’m dubious of its 41% .
On the other hand the Lib Dems and Greens are quite high combined 18% . Some of that is likely to go to Labour on the day .0 -
The Tory leads in eve of polling polls in GE17 were:
8%, 13%, 1%, 12%, 7%, 10%, -2%, 8%, and 5%. Average 6.9%.
0 -
I think it will be lack of BBC backbone before the mob if she is. I am not aware of any law she has broken.Chris said:
Should have known better.ydoethur said:Kuenssberg could be in trouble:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html
Anyone?0 -
Since I remember someone here asking about interest rates a couple of days ago:
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1204838459975880704
Interest rates will never rise again, as long as inflation does not pickup.0 -
Panelbase in . 9 point lead for the Tories.0
-
Has form....Floater said:So, anyone surprised?
http://hurryupharry.org/2019/12/10/labour-candidate-cites-red-army-faction-terrorist-as-inspiration/
He asserts that Rebecca Gordon-Nesbitt, the PPC for South Thanet, includes Meinhof in a list of ‘inspirations’
Ex-Labour parliamentary candidate let off over tweets on antisemitism and Jewish MP's 'Zionist sympathies'
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/rebecca-gordon-nesbitt-let-off-by-labour-s-highest-disciplinary-body-over-tweets-on-antisemitism-1.4842180 -
.9 point lead! That's really tight!nico67 said:Panelbase in . 9 point lead for the Tories.
0 -
Look at the leads the week before that.Benpointer said:The Tory leads in eve of polling polls in GE17 were:
8%, 13%, 1%, 12%, 7%, 10%, -2%, 8%, and 5%. Average 6.9%.
It's always the second to last week that pollsters are usually the most accurate.0 -
Hmm ; these polls tonight seem to be in a slightly better range for the Tories than might be expected. Whether that means anything, I don't know.0
