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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958
    edited December 2019

    https://twitter.com/horse_staple/status/1203795208397295617

    Huh, I guess I do have prediction powers

    Hence we South Essex Tories are going to Chingford on Thursday
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,952
    Were the LibDems on 40 on the spreads at the start of this campaign??? Anybody still making a killing?
  • tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.

    Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.

    What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,843
    GIN1138 said:

    A glut of polls on the way tomorrow anyway - Survation will be the one to watch. :D

    Goodnight PB :)

    See whether the Tory vote correlates with the proportions polled before and after Boris's bravura performance yesterday ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969
    The election is down to 3,000 voters in 14 seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985

    RobD said:

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.
    There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.

    Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.
    They probably have it to infinite precision, but round on the excel sheet?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    It seems that people do indeed choose to forget history.

    Labour's economic plans aren't even a hypothetical risk, we've done it before and we know how it will end.

    And then we will be back with decades of austerity to try and repair the public finances.

    And the left will be frothing at the mouth at the injustice.

    And then we will do it all again in 40 years time.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    Nobidexx said:

    I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.

    One of the biggest unknowns in this election is tribal loyalty.

    YouGov's MRP, as you've noted, seems to play this down. There are plenty of constituencies where they're projecting Labour below their traditional floor.

    This is crucial because, if YouGov are wrong on this, then their projections for the "red wall" are unreliable. And without breaching the red wall, the Conservatives don't have a majority.

    I suspect that if Labour have a chance of holding off the Conservatives on Thursday, it will be down to voters in Midlands/Wales seats who take their ballot paper into the booth, hesitate... and then put a cross next to Labour as they have done for every election in the last 40 years. But how can you model a last-minute unknown like that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    HYUFD said:
    Much better for all the unionist parties than I'd have predicted at the start of the campaign, but with vast differences possible. Betting on Scottish seats would be a very risky proposition.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,792
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:

    "Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.

    And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.

    Events, dear boy..."

    IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.

    Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    I can’t tell if that is an early “Conservatives are doomed & I told you so” or a “nothing has changed”

    Hedge your bets!
    It's the Tories hope for a majority is doomed and I (Rochdale Pioneer) told you so. And with another Hung Parliament little has changed.

    I also think he's right - what can Boris do tomorrow that removes the story of NHS failure being the last thing story people think about as they head in to vote.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    It won't be, because his party is full of a large number of people who aren't.

    My wife who hasn't voted Labour in three elections, and is Jewish, also having not been a Labour member for many years, says she's voting for Corbyn.
    It doesn't matter. The Corbyn wing is in its ascendancy. The only thing that has held back their Anti-Semitism is fear of electoral consequences. If useful idiots continue to vote for them regardless and show there is no consequence to it they will do more. And it will spread and spread and spread. I don't think I want to be British any more.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,538
    edited December 2019

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I'm not certain, but are they doing a Monte Carlo job to get the headline seat totals (with error bars), rather than just taking the leader in each seat irrespective of the margin?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,895
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.
    There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.

    Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.
    They probably have it to infinite precision, but round on the excel sheet?
    Right, but I can't see anywhere where they actually tell you who nudges it in their sims. Unless whoever is listed first on the interactive chart is?

    Edit - I don't think it is, I think it is just alphabetical when tied.
  • That has got to be the NHS video right?

    That's an astonishing fall in one day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    egg said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    I wonder if he will speak and be incredibly ungracious about it if that happens.
    MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.
    Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.
  • Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
  • kle4 said:

    egg said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    I wonder if he will speak and be incredibly ungracious about it if that happens.
    MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.
    Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.
    Or perhaps the Tories on the ground just lie?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985

    That has got to be the NHS video right?

    That's an astonishing fall in one day.
    It seems to be following the trend, rather than being an unusual fall.
  • tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.

    Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.

    What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.

    There is honour in staying to fight, too, I think. And I don’t feel very honourable potentially helping the Tories to win. But try as I might to rationalise a vote for Labour, I can’t. It is a vote for Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne, Murray, McCluskey ... And how can I vote for them?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969
    Sheffield Hallam:

    LD 36%
    Lab 32%
    Con 23%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.
    There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.

    Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.
    They probably have it to infinite precision, but round on the excel sheet?
    Right, but I can't see anywhere where they actually tell you who nudges it in their sims. Unless whoever is listed first on the interactive chart is?
    Guess who is going to be spending the next few hours clicking a hundred hexagons. :)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    Ave_it said:

    It looks like Sturgeon and Corbyn will be moving into No 10

    But at 9pm on Thur you will get the most important projection - the Ave It GE2019 forecast!

    Up there with Watford winning the League?
    Can I guess
    CON GAIN EVERYTHING including the moon. Ave it!!!
  • So this low Labour floor thing, does that imply the Labour vote is understated?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    That has got to be the NHS video right?

    That's an astonishing fall in one day.
    I find the talk of him being inhuman and not showing humanity to be rather grim language. He's not a good man, I'm not voting for his party, but 'inhuman', really?
  • Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
    Yep. Me too.

    Part of it is the donkeys coming home but Neil and the Phone cut through. The first one mattered far more, but Boris has been found guilty in the court of public opinion of doing an NHS.

    Stupid mistakes.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,782
    Andy_JS said:

    The election is down to 3,000 voters in 14 seats.

    That should be easy enough for MI5 to fix.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,236
    edited December 2019
    Tomorrow is an unusually important day for both campaigns.

    It's not settled yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    Andy_JS said:

    Sheffield Hallam:

    LD 36%
    Lab 32%
    Con 23%

    That's one seat where Labour do deserve to be punished for inflicting O'Mara on its populace. Fortunately it looks like the Tories will be punished for at least a few of their more egregious MPs as well.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,563
    edited December 2019
    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
  • kle4 said:

    That has got to be the NHS video right?

    That's an astonishing fall in one day.
    I find the talk of him being inhuman and not showing humanity to be rather grim language. He's not a good man, I'm not voting for his party, but 'inhuman', really?
    It follows what I've found around here in my safe seat. People really don't like him, unlike May who I think they actually felt sorry for.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Much better for all the unionist parties than I'd have predicted at the start of the campaign, but with vast differences possible. Betting on Scottish seats would be a very risky proposition.
    The only person I'd risk money on is Ian Murray, and I wouldn't make much.

    Huge number of marginals here, and anything could happen.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,215

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Tory MPs, ex Tory ministers and even someone in Boris’s *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    Fair point.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,792

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    Given the unemployable thrice fired liar in the other corner - it's a matter of picking the least worst option.

    At least Sturgeon will have some say in the policies of a Labour Government - Boris with just a small majority will have to give the ERG everything they want..

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,563

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    Your bedroom predilections are not a fit topic for a family site.
    Titter
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    kle4 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    speedy2 said:

    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
    2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!
    Hung parliaments are great. They stop both the Labour Party (barmy) and the Tory Party (bonkers) doing anything. More please!
    That can be a benefit, and better than a landslide, but occasionally we do need parliaments to do things, and now that coalitions and even formal agreements are a bridge too far for parties, it won't be fun to have a hung parliament, if necessary for certain outcomes.
    That is correct.

    Like in the 1970's the country is in a mood for major reforms, but it has to decide which ones to choose instead of cancelling out each proposal.

    The public are in favour of mass nationalizations and a big public sector, at the same time they don't like strange foreigners controlling their affairs.
    Neither party is offering both.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    I wonder if he will speak and be incredibly ungracious about it if that happens.
    MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.
    Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.
    Or perhaps the Tories on the ground just lie?
    I think it implausible to suggest canvassers and activists on one side tell the truth and the ones on the other side do not, ascribing virtue to one political tribe. They're all political activists, more in common with each other than normal people, they wil likely spin and talk a good game, but that's not the same as outright lying which is less common in politics than we think.

    More likely still is they are all mostly honest about what they see and hear, but they're crap at getting to the real picture.
  • The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,401
    kjohnw1 said:

    kjohnw1 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
    I hope your right I really do . Do we have to wait another day of torture to find out
    Sickeningly long campaign, this one. Get it down to 3 weeks, for fucksake.
    In 2017 it was April to June.
    If Boris does get his majority scrapping the FTPA needs to be one of his first duties
    Uber the FTPA, governments have lasted an average of three years, against 4.1 in the previous 21 years.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
    Yep. Me too.

    Part of it is the donkeys coming home but Neil and the Phone cut through. The first one mattered far more, but Boris has been found guilty in the court of public opinion of doing an NHS.

    Stupid mistakes.
    It might be more fundemental.
    Get brexit done. Look at it not as a battle cry, but a question. To which than answer can be no.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    kle4 said:

    That has got to be the NHS video right?

    That's an astonishing fall in one day.
    I find the talk of him being inhuman and not showing humanity to be rather grim language. He's not a good man, I'm not voting for his party, but 'inhuman', really?
    It follows what I've found around here in my safe seat. People really don't like him, unlike May who I think they actually felt sorry for.
    I don't like him either, or Corbyn, but describing either as being inhuman is surely part of that language in politics we are supposed to be avoiding.
  • I predict tories over 360 seats . Postals are already in , fear of Corbyn is very real out there . But yesterday’s cock up could cost a few of those, the 11million views probably Corbynistas resharing
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969
    Some seats have shifted to the Tories since the previous MRP.

    For example Bradford South was Lab 42%, Con 37%.
    Now it's Lab 42%, Con 41%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,401
    Nobidexx said:

    I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.

    The reverse seems to be true for the tories: despite their static vote share they're actually performing better or staying stable in extremely safe labour seats, including heavily remain ones (7->12% in Manchester Gorton, 13->16% in Sheffield Central, 9.7->14% in Liverpool Riverside), while generally staying static or only picking up a very modest increase in a lot of labour leave targets (Wrexham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bolsover...), sometimes even going backwards a little bit. This seems to contradict the constituency polls (including the recent Wrexham one) that showed large leads, with the labour vote generally holding up much better than expected.

    This results in a rather inefficient tory vote and a very efficient labour vote compared to what we would expect with a 9% lead (it's barely better than what Cameron got in 2015 with an only 6.5% lead, and that was with the SNP sweeping Scotland). Am I the only one thinking they may have something wrong with their weightings, especially regarding tactical voting?

    As I understand it, they aren't big believers in tactical voting, and model instead how different demographic segments will vote.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    Do these seat numbers add up in principle?

    Tories: 308
    Labour 252
    Lib Dems: 14
    SNP: 47
    Green: 1
  • eekeek Posts: 21,792
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    egg said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    I wonder if he will speak and be incredibly ungracious about it if that happens.
    MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.
    Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.
    Or perhaps the Tories on the ground just lie?
    I think it implausible to suggest canvassers and activists on one side tell the truth and the ones on the other side do not, ascribing virtue to one political tribe. They're all political activists, more in common with each other than normal people, they wil likely spin and talk a good game, but that's not the same as outright lying which is less common in politics than we think.

    More likely still is they are all mostly honest about what they see and hear, but they're crap at getting to the real picture.
    People lie to salesman all the time - and canvassers are most of the time just amateur salesman. Heck, Salesman even lie to themselves as they want to believe they have achieved something.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.

    What does the comments from others, non Tories, saying the Tory panic is over the top and they will still easily win show?
  • The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.

    Yes but time is running out for you - tick tock
  • The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.

    Even on this poll, the virulent antisemites you support are over a hundred seats behind us.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,036
    Here's today's Focaldata MRP spreadsheet again for comparison with Yougov's https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969

    The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.

    Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.
  • Foxy said:
    Didn't Johnson visit labour targets in Yorkshire and the North East yesterday? It might just have been a matter of schedule.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,895
    edited December 2019
    Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning). By my best guess-estimate, YouGov have it neck and neck until about 3am, then the Tories should pull away. So if the Tories are ahead before that, it should be looking like a bigger majority.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.

    Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.
    46.5 hours until the big bong.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,792
    Nobidexx said:

    Foxy said:
    Didn't Johnson visit labour targets in Yorkshire and the North East yesterday? It might just have been a matter of schedule.
    He visited Labour seats close to those the tories are trying to win...
  • SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning)


    Interesting, Labour not having as much of an early period where they are ahead compared to the last version, IIRC.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    That is your spun Tory view, but labour voters see the lifelong labour MPs and ex ministers like this
    there shouldn’t be any anger towards them, all Labour leadership should urge followers and social media users not to show anger towards these people. everyone goes on a political journey in their life. They deserve to be heard as much as anyone as they bow out of frontline politics …leaving the country and the world in such fine shape where Woodcock in particular supported the unfair slaughter in Yemen, where they have endorsed Bad Brexit deals, and urging you to keep the rotten Tories in power and telling you to vote for privatisation of the NHS.
    But its right they go having, like some people do as they get older, drifted so far to right they are at home supporting Britain's most right wing government, in the case of Mann, accepting job working for Boris and his ERG cabinet.
    Truth is, as they bow out, the next generation coming into politics have to put right the mess on the rail, in the energy bills, at the foodbanks, around the housing crisis, the unfair foreign wars that these guys supported and walking away from.
    Where I would take some issue though is how confused and rather fatuous they are in their movement against extremism, as they endorse Boris extremist policies, they endorse Boris Hard Brexit deal, as these crusaders against extremism tar every Labour candidate every party member and every enthusiastic volunteer as antisemitic and racist, yet they endorse islamophobia in the Tory party out the same mouth.
    its not anger but sympathy we should feel for these lost souls. When the time comes, pray it be many years hence, may St Peter be merciful on them, as we pray he is merciful on everyone who lost their soul along the way.
    And if you see it like that. That being the truth, No shame in voting labour.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,563
    egg said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    I wonder if he will speak and be incredibly ungracious about it if that happens.
    MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.
    MRP has it close. Lab campaigners think its close. The former thinks Con edge it the latter thinks Dennis edges it.

    Will be close. I cashed out as Dennis moved in from 5/4 to 10/11 small profit. But i reckon Skinner by 2k or less.

    Yesterday will have helped people in Bolsover are passionate about the NHS.

    My only open bet currently is Leigh.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969

    Do these seat numbers add up in principle?

    Tories: 308
    Labour 252
    Lib Dems: 14
    SNP: 47
    Green: 1

    With 4 Plaid Cymru MPs it would be 6 short of the total for GB. Some of those could be independents.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,401

    Were the LibDems on 40 on the spreads at the start of this campaign??? Anybody still making a killing?

    They were an easy sell all the way to 22 or so. After that it's a much riskier game, as while you might expect them to only get 15 or so seats, there is a small chance you get f*cked by events.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.

    But the direction of travel has been clear.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    SunnyJim said:

    It seems that people do indeed choose to forget history.

    Labour's economic plans aren't even a hypothetical risk, we've done it before and we know how it will end.

    And then we will be back with decades of austerity to try and repair the public finances.

    And the left will be frothing at the mouth at the injustice.

    And then we will do it all again in 40 years time.

    Labour wrecks economy, voters scream, put in Tories
    Tories fillet the public sector, voters scream, put in Labour
    Labour wrecks economy, etc, etc...

    Repeat until dead. Classic pendulum politics. The electorate keeps swaying back and forth and the parties move with them, getting more and more extreme each time as the country gradually gets poorer and more rotten with every passing cycle. It's as inevitable as the coming of Winter.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,792
    BluerBlue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
    How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?
  • Do these seat numbers add up in principle?

    Tories: 308
    Labour 252
    Lib Dems: 14
    SNP: 47
    Green: 1

    Nope. I don't think so. That makes 622 which is 9 short I think. There are 18 NI plus the Speaker which with your numbers would be 641. Unless you think PC will get 9 seats....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,895
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:

    Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning)


    Interesting, Labour not having as much of an early period where they are ahead compared to the last version, IIRC.
    There was a small bug in my code, so that might have been part of it....also, at certain times loads of seats come in at once and the ordering might have slightly changed.
  • eek said:

    BluerBlue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
    How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?
    He asked for a majority, but the Marxist-loving voters didn't give it to him.

    Which would be the truth.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969
    It appears there has been a swing to the Tories amongst certain demographics. For example the model now has Labour ahead by just 1% in Lincoln compared to 3% previously.

    Also, Gedling has a 1% Labour lead now, compared to 3% before.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    kle4 said:

    Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning)


    Interesting, Labour not having as much of an early period where they are ahead compared to the last version, IIRC.
    There was a small bug in my code, so that might have been part of it....also, at certain times loads of seats come in at once and the ordering might have slightly changed.
    I feel like a magician has just told me his secrets :(
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,563

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    Grow up
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,401
    Brom said:

    Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.

    One of the problems of the YouGov model is that it is not a Monte Carlo simulation. If there are three seats which are 39/40 lab/con you shouldn't count it as 0/3, but 1/2, because given typical volitility, that is the most likely result.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
  • rcs1000 said:

    Were the LibDems on 40 on the spreads at the start of this campaign??? Anybody still making a killing?

    They were an easy sell all the way to 22 or so. After that it's a much riskier game, as while you might expect them to only get 15 or so seats, there is a small chance you get f*cked by events.
    I sold at 45 and I've still got my position open. I might close out tomorrow assuming the price stays at around 18-22: as you say, events.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,036
    Nobidexx said:

    I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.

    The reverse seems to be true for the tories: despite their static vote share they're actually performing better or staying stable in extremely safe labour seats, including heavily remain ones (7->12% in Manchester Gorton, 13->16% in Sheffield Central, 9.7->14% in Liverpool Riverside), while generally staying static or only picking up a very modest increase in a lot of labour leave targets (Wrexham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bolsover...), sometimes even going backwards a little bit. This seems to contradict the constituency polls (including the recent Wrexham one) that showed large leads, with the labour vote generally holding up much better than expected.

    This results in a rather inefficient tory vote and a very efficient labour vote compared to what we would expect with a 9% lead (it's barely better than what Cameron got in 2015 with an only 6.5% lead, and that was with the SNP sweeping Scotland). Am I the only one thinking they may have something wrong with their weightings, especially regarding tactical voting?

    The Focaldata MRP analysis may be more accurate regarding the issues you mention, though they end up with a similar Tory majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
  • eekeek Posts: 21,792

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    Grow up
    I can't vote for someone I could never employ.

    Now I could easily imagine Corbyn doing the garden - I can't think of any job that Boris would be trustworthy enough to do after being fired thrice for dishonesty...
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    BluerBlue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.

    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
    If you look at the fact checkers from last fridays debate, labour’s corporation tax rise only goes back to 2010 level, not the 1970s. It’s hardly Marxist, socialist or even rampant Keynes. It’s hardly class war. Meanwhile A party that can’t even count ferry’s banded fantasy figures about the fact checkers and audiences laughed at. Everything follows on from 2016. Didn’t Boris stand at lectern in Downing Street and promise hundreds of billions of pounds to flow into the country once we got Brexit done? Is that fantasy the basis of economic policy and how they intend to fund everything?
    If you want to win an election you need to win the economic argument
  • rcs1000 said:

    Brom said:

    Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.

    One of the problems of the YouGov model is that it is not a Monte Carlo simulation. If there are three seats which are 39/40 lab/con you shouldn't count it as 0/3, but 1/2, because given typical volitility, that is the most likely result.
    Are you sure? I don't think that's right - look at the error bars on their headline forecast.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969
    Uxbridge is now 49/40 instead of 50/37.
  • SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    Nah because then they know they will lose heavily. All of that Brexit support that Boris had will disappear so he loses all those Northern seats he gained. If he chooses another election over a No Deal he is screwed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.

    Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.

    You are absolutely correct about all of the above. I personally believe there is an especially hot place in hell for McCluskey in particular.

    However, when the binary alternative is a Johnson (potentially big) majority I don't see where else to go. Johnson is equally as repellent as those mentioned above and similarly dangerous in terms of his economic policy via No Deal Brexit and his casual racism and homophobia. Some of his chums JRM, Francois', IDS, Raab, Philip Davis, Chope, Bone, Bridgen, Patel, Cummings, the Barclay Brothers, Rothermere and Murdoch to name but a few are equally dubious for many differing but nonetheless unedifying reasons. I haven't even mentioned his, at the very least, brushing shoulders with Trump, Farage and Yaxley-Lennon.

    Corbyn's USP is there is not a hope in Hades that he could possibly muster anything like a majority.
  • eek said:

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    Grow up
    I can't vote for someone I could never employ.

    Now I could easily imagine Corbyn doing the garden - I can't think of any job that Boris would be trustworthy enough to do after being fired thrice for dishonesty...
    You're literally insane.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    eek said:

    BluerBlue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
    How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?
    The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.

    Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969

    I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?

    Surely most of the data would have been collected before photogate happened?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,215
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.

    Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.
    46.5 hours until the big bong.
    Turning to drugs is unwise.
  • I do hope that the thickies like Mbryonic are shitting it

    As they'll be laughing in 48 hours
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:
    A far cry from the first weeks of the campaign?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,563
    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
    Who , Ramsey?

    Lab wont be forming a Govt IMO but hopefully enough seats that Tories dont have a Majority either.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,792
    Andy_JS said:

    I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?

    Surely most of the data would have been collected before photogate happened?
    In which case things may be even worse for the Tories now...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,895
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.

    But the direction of travel has been clear.
    THIS....

    The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.

    It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
  • speedy2 said:

    eek said:

    BluerBlue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
    How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?
    The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.

    Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.
    Yep I think all the sensible money will be on a No Deal if we are in a Hung Parliament with Tories anything above 315 seats.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.

    Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.
    I agree. It'll be a fascinating night whatever happens. As for my own party's prospects - well, if it's just 15 seats then it's just 15 seats. I'm relaxed about all possible results at this point... it's the taking part that counts, and all that...
  • I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?

    No way to be sure. I'm hoping it's an outlier that will revert to mean by Thursday as memory fades rather than continue in a trend, but we'll only know then...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Andy_JS said:

    I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?

    Surely most of the data would have been collected before photogate happened?
    No I mean the change of 17 seats from yesterday to today shown on their data
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