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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the T

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the Tory majority halved to 28

NEW YouGov MRP

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Yougov MRP polled through today so these numbers are right up to date
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    2,803 votes changing hands would have lost the Tories their 14 most marginal seats at GE2017. (14 seats over the 326 winning mark gives a majority of 28).
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    If someone told me in January that the Tories could have any majority by the end of the year, I would have laughed myself silly.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Would be very interesting to see the day by day changes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Clear Tory majority but still close enough for both parties to keep campaigning to the end with the possibility of a hung parliament
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    That hexagon map on the YouGov seat page is terrible. Ross, Skye & Lochaber is not south of Glasgow North-West even after 10 cans of Tennents.

    Yeah, it' s a remarkable graphic, there's loads like that.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,485
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov MRP polled through today so these numbers are right up to date

    Only a proportion of the numbers are right up to date.
  • We will need to see more polls post Johnson's NHS comments, which according to the focus group I saw, has cut through.

    11 million views now, that's a lot of people.

    Anyone who saw the Ashworth video, they already know they've been told Corbyn is unfit, he's a danger, etc. It won't move the dial at all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Biggest Tory majority since 1987.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Its the CORBYNISTA swing!
  • Squeaky bum time.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,485
    East Devon fascinating: IND and CON each on 47%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    I've said a majority of around 30 all the way along BTW. Just throwing that out there in case anyone didn't know...

    *innocent face*

    ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019
    How is Corbyn going to become PM though when Labour plus SNP are only on 272 combined even if a hung parliament?
  • My Spreadsheet now contains all the latest MRP data.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA

    Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I've said a majority of around 30 all the way along BTW. Just throwing that out there in case anyone didn't know...

    *innocent face*

    ;)

    I agreed with you and said 20-40, I want it noted!
  • F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Prepare for PB apoplexy.
  • Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited December 2019
    Some will say Tories will be panicking unnecessarily at this, but it is right in line with the message that Boris himself has been pushing - that Corbyn and co could still win (albeit in messier fashion than the Tories could win).

    Polls have been fine for the Tories 9-10 pt lead, even with a lot of tactical voting and really marginal seats if that is the baseline vote then they will get a majority, either a small one like 28 or really large, depending on luck of the marginals.

    So it really does still come down to whether Labour can literally stage a last day surge of even a few more percent, or if the polls themselves are out by that amount still, same as it ever was.

    10-40 looks like a solid range of prediction for a Tory majority. They are far enough ahead in polling, with a lot of votes already case, that they will eke over the line.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,308
    Lots of very tight results, but a 9% lead will produce a comfortable Conservative lead on the day. Because, that's what a 9% lead on 40% + produces.
  • If people spot any mistakes, please let me know. This is all automated.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
  • Eighty five seats with <5% majorities, we're going to have to stay up all night watching this. I think the exit poll may well be wrong.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    HYUFD said:

    How is Corbyn going to become PM though when Labour plus SNP are only on 272 combined even if a hung parliament?

    But if they are on 300 its nailed on!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Esher and Walton is a toss up. 😀
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Bollocks to Brexit!

    😅
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,212
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Your problem is that it also reminds waverers just how close the far right is to securing a majority.

    And yes, I do think that Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg deserve that soubriquet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Biggest majority since 87. Get a grip.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Hastings and Rye remains Conservative by 49% to 43%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    It could. And it could galvanise people to vote Labour even if they are disgusted by the idea, as they can see a path to stopping the Tories.
  • Jonathan said:

    Esher and Walton is a toss up. 😀

    I'd laugh my arse off if he gets punted.
  • BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
  • Eighty five seats with <5% majorities, we're going to have to stay up all night watching this. I think the exit poll may well be wrong.</p>

    Wash your mouth out.

    Professor Sir John Curtice (pbuh) is never wrong.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
  • My Spreadsheet now contains all the latest MRP data.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA

    Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.

    That is a great resource: thank you.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962
    Esher & Walton - tossup :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019
    Yougov MRP map now out, now all the Tories gains bar Eastbourne and Dagenham and Rainham are forecast to be North of Watford, with Kensington now staying Labour.

    The North, the Midlands and Wales thus crucial to any Tory majority and Scotland where the Tories are still holding 8 out of 13 seats.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109?s=20
  • Esher & Walton


    Con 46

    LD 44

    Lab 8
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    The recovery being better for Lab in Remain areas is good news for the Tories. Far more seats at stake in Leave areas. Labour need to have a decent last day swing to retain these.
  • Esher & Walton


    Con 46

    LD 44

    Lab 8

    So this does take into account tactical voting then?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited December 2019
    Freggles said:

    East Devon fascinating: IND and CON each on 47%.

    Remarkable how the different models are so divergent. That other MRP had it 53 - 33, or about that anyway, and it wasn't even that different on overall majority size.
  • https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/status/1204522931801542669

    The Labour Leave voters just can't vote Tory.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The final TSE remark on Boris is not justified.

    When Boris went for this election, remember what most people said? That an overall majority would be really hard, that the combination of BXP, tactical voting, resurgent Lib Dems, difficult seats, etc etc etc, meant it was almost impossible for him to get a resounding win.

    If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.

    As it happens, it is now a toss-up between a small majority and a hung parliament.

    The Tories have fought a tight and clever campaign, with some great messaging, but it was always an uphill struggle: for a governing party to win a fourth term in a row?

    If these were normal times, as a rightwinger, I would now say, fair's fair, it's time for the other guys, give them a go.

    But these are not normal times. The other guy is a Marxist and an anti-Semite.

    We are fucked.
  • BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    Labour have made it a culture war for the last 40 years.
  • Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    edited December 2019
    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Chingford: Con 47%, Lab 45%.
    Lanark: Con 36%, SNP 35%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Did not Corbyn not think his late recovery last time was dramatic enough, and he wanted this one to look even more remarkable?
  • Interesting, they seem to think the Greens have got a better chance in Dulwich than Bristol West, if I read that right.
  • I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
  • BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    There is significant overlap of the Lab and Con error bars in Uxbridge. Squeaky bum.
  • Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.

    And there’s no particular reason to expect either this time to be as accurate as last time’s - new electoral conditions make for new variables to allow for.
  • RobD said:

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
    It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?

    I am upping HP to be 55%/45%
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    Pidcock only 5% ahead in North West Durham.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:



    If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.

    I said hold the election on 5th December not 12th. Didn't I say that?

    People are probably pissed off that this (insanely long) election is dragging on so close to Christmas.

    I'm a politics nerd and even I'm bored to tears with it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfair let me have a whole three pounds five pence on the Tories in Lanark
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Esher: Con 46%, LD 44%.
  • Wokingham is striking. John Redwood might well be feeling a bit jittery.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Artist said:

    Pidcock only 5% ahead in North West Durham.

    That's less than before I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
    It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?

    I am upping HP to be 55%/45%
    Based on a 9% lead? I thought it needed to be within seven. :D
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited December 2019
    This may be the poll CCHQ wanted - too close for anyone voting Tory to rest on their laurels. They'll be hoping it gets some coverage and compels people to turn out on Thursday.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    He hates this country almost as much as he hates the Jews. Well done you.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov MRP polled through today so these numbers are right up to date

    Apart from being an average over the last 7 days. ROTFL.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    The surprise is how badly the Conservatives are doing in scotland and wales.
    No regional poll has them doing that bad.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/10/blow-growth-economy-counts-cost-lingering-brexit-uncertainty/

    Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.

    Do you have no self-awareness?
  • kle4 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    It could. And it could galvanise people to vote Labour even if they are disgusted by the idea, as they can see a path to stopping the Tories.
    This is the issue. For those Tories horrified that Corbyn could lead a minority government and unbelieving that people could let it happen. There are those of us who are just as anti Johnson leading any government.

    The desire not to let it happen is broadly equal.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited December 2019

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.

    Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early to say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
    It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?

    I am upping HP to be 55%/45%
    Based on a 9% lead? I thought it needed to be within seven. :D
    Looks like 8 would do it now.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Good riddance . Hopefully IDS and Raab join her .
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Tories still set clear to win, but with luck, courage and hard work we could just about deny them a blank cheque Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Interesting change. LDs were not out of it in the last MRP so if the fear was the Tories winning it back its surprising they could not squeeze Labour, instead their prospective supporters fled back to Labour.

    Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.

    Well yes, it is not magically accurate or anything. Does it feel right? Not really, the polls have been steady enough, but with so many close calls there's such a wide range anything from 315-395 looks possible on very similar final votes.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Artist said:

    Pidcock only 5% ahead in North West Durham.

    That's less than before I think.
    No wonder we haven't seen her on the telly.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    In a world of possibles, maybes, probables, I'd be interested to know what numbers people put on the break points Tory Govt for these imprecisions in the context of Tory vote share - hung, can't rule out, possible, probable, almost certain. I haven't ventured an opinion because I feel quite cowed by the level of expertise on the subject exhibited on here.
  • Floater said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/10/blow-growth-economy-counts-cost-lingering-brexit-uncertainty/

    Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.

    Project Fear.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    Wales disappointing for the blues versus recent Wales-wide poll. They must have hopes there for it to be better than forecast.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    Byronic said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    He hates this country almost as much as he hates the Jews. Well done you.
    Well I am Jewish so I won’t be lectured by you on morals.

    I hate Corbyn but I hate Boris more.
  • Anyone voting Labour in Esher needs a smack upside the head.
  • Boris needs to get outside Downing Street tomorrow and make a statement assuring the people that the NHS is safe in his hands and that no one should have to be without a bed. He needs to link the Brexit dividend back to the NHS and promise £350 million extra a week from the moment we leave .
  • I note that references to MOE are that it heads to "Hung Territory". Equally on the other side it heads to "Landslide"!
  • BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
  • Surely 317 Tory seats this time wouldn't be enough with DUP support, aren't they set to lose two?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    BTW - this might focus peoples minds on the possibility of Corbyn in Downing street

    I can retire and ride this out - not everyone can do that
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    True the direction of travel is up for Labour.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,953
    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    It's a shit poll.

    But we are still ahead in Lanark!

    2 days to go and we will know for sure
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Come on Con 325 - Tories would be able to pass the WA, but Boris Johnson would not be able to claim to be another Tory PM who won an official majority.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Byronic said:

    The final TSE remark on Boris is not justified.

    When Boris went for this election, remember what most people said? That an overall majority would be really hard, that the combination of BXP, tactical voting, resurgent Lib Dems, difficult seats, etc etc etc, meant it was almost impossible for him to get a resounding win.

    If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.

    As it happens, it is now a toss-up between a small majority and a hung parliament.

    The Tories have fought a tight and clever campaign, with some great messaging, but it was always an uphill struggle: for a governing party to win a fourth term in a row?

    If these were normal times, as a rightwinger, I would now say, fair's fair, it's time for the other guys, give them a go.

    But these are not normal times. The other guy is a Marxist and an anti-Semite.

    We are fucked.

    4th term in a row? You realise the last 2 terms have hardly been of significant length right?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    He is still better than a mendacious sociopath of a clown. The SNP will keep Jezza in line.

    I still predict Con 360+. Are we having a PB NoJam contest?
This discussion has been closed.