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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the T

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the Tory majority halved to 28

NEW YouGov MRP

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Yougov MRP polled through today so these numbers are right up to date
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    2,803 votes changing hands would have lost the Tories their 14 most marginal seats at GE2017. (14 seats over the 326 winning mark gives a majority of 28).
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    If someone told me in January that the Tories could have any majority by the end of the year, I would have laughed myself silly.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Would be very interesting to see the day by day changes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Clear Tory majority but still close enough for both parties to keep campaigning to the end with the possibility of a hung parliament
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    El_Capitano said:

    That hexagon map on the YouGov seat page is terrible. Ross, Skye & Lochaber is not south of Glasgow North-West even after 10 cans of Tennents.

    Yeah, it' s a remarkable graphic, there's loads like that.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov MRP polled through today so these numbers are right up to date

    Only a proportion of the numbers are right up to date.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    We will need to see more polls post Johnson's NHS comments, which according to the focus group I saw, has cut through.

    11 million views now, that's a lot of people.

    Anyone who saw the Ashworth video, they already know they've been told Corbyn is unfit, he's a danger, etc. It won't move the dial at all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Biggest Tory majority since 1987.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Its the CORBYNISTA swing!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1204524641399824385
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Squeaky bum time.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    East Devon fascinating: IND and CON each on 47%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    I've said a majority of around 30 all the way along BTW. Just throwing that out there in case anyone didn't know...

    *innocent face*

    ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited December 2019
    How is Corbyn going to become PM though when Labour plus SNP are only on 272 combined even if a hung parliament?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1204524641399824385

    A win win
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    My Spreadsheet now contains all the latest MRP data.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA

    Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    GIN1138 said:

    I've said a majority of around 30 all the way along BTW. Just throwing that out there in case anyone didn't know...

    *innocent face*

    ;)

    I agreed with you and said 20-40, I want it noted!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1204524641399824385

    By 4%, not that close.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    Gallowgate said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Prepare for PB apoplexy.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited December 2019
    Some will say Tories will be panicking unnecessarily at this, but it is right in line with the message that Boris himself has been pushing - that Corbyn and co could still win (albeit in messier fashion than the Tories could win).

    Polls have been fine for the Tories 9-10 pt lead, even with a lot of tactical voting and really marginal seats if that is the baseline vote then they will get a majority, either a small one like 28 or really large, depending on luck of the marginals.

    So it really does still come down to whether Labour can literally stage a last day surge of even a few more percent, or if the polls themselves are out by that amount still, same as it ever was.

    10-40 looks like a solid range of prediction for a Tory majority. They are far enough ahead in polling, with a lot of votes already case, that they will eke over the line.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Lots of very tight results, but a 9% lead will produce a comfortable Conservative lead on the day. Because, that's what a 9% lead on 40% + produces.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    If people spot any mistakes, please let me know. This is all automated.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Eighty five seats with <5% majorities, we're going to have to stay up all night watching this. I think the exit poll may well be wrong.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    HYUFD said:

    How is Corbyn going to become PM though when Labour plus SNP are only on 272 combined even if a hung parliament?

    But if they are on 300 its nailed on!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Esher and Walton is a toss up. 😀
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Bollocks to Brexit!

    😅
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Your problem is that it also reminds waverers just how close the far right is to securing a majority.

    And yes, I do think that Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg deserve that soubriquet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Biggest majority since 87. Get a grip.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Hastings and Rye remains Conservative by 49% to 43%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    It could. And it could galvanise people to vote Labour even if they are disgusted by the idea, as they can see a path to stopping the Tories.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Jonathan said:

    Esher and Walton is a toss up. 😀

    I'd laugh my arse off if he gets punted.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Eighty five seats with <5% majorities, we're going to have to stay up all night watching this. I think the exit poll may well be wrong.</p>

    Wash your mouth out.

    Professor Sir John Curtice (pbuh) is never wrong.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458

    Something has started.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1204525518315544582

    Phew
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    BluerBlue said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    My Spreadsheet now contains all the latest MRP data.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA

    Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.

    That is a great resource: thank you.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Esher & Walton - tossup :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited December 2019
    Yougov MRP map now out, now all the Tories gains bar Eastbourne and Dagenham and Rainham are forecast to be North of Watford, with Kensington now staying Labour.

    The North, the Midlands and Wales thus crucial to any Tory majority and Scotland where the Tories are still holding 8 out of 13 seats.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Esher & Walton


    Con 46

    LD 44

    Lab 8
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    The recovery being better for Lab in Remain areas is good news for the Tories. Far more seats at stake in Leave areas. Labour need to have a decent last day swing to retain these.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Esher & Walton


    Con 46

    LD 44

    Lab 8

    So this does take into account tactical voting then?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited December 2019
    Freggles said:

    East Devon fascinating: IND and CON each on 47%.

    Remarkable how the different models are so divergent. That other MRP had it 53 - 33, or about that anyway, and it wasn't even that different on overall majority size.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/status/1204522931801542669

    The Labour Leave voters just can't vote Tory.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The final TSE remark on Boris is not justified.

    When Boris went for this election, remember what most people said? That an overall majority would be really hard, that the combination of BXP, tactical voting, resurgent Lib Dems, difficult seats, etc etc etc, meant it was almost impossible for him to get a resounding win.

    If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.

    As it happens, it is now a toss-up between a small majority and a hung parliament.

    The Tories have fought a tight and clever campaign, with some great messaging, but it was always an uphill struggle: for a governing party to win a fourth term in a row?

    If these were normal times, as a rightwinger, I would now say, fair's fair, it's time for the other guys, give them a go.

    But these are not normal times. The other guy is a Marxist and an anti-Semite.

    We are fucked.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    Labour have made it a culture war for the last 40 years.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458

    Something has started.

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Chingford: Con 47%, Lab 45%.
    Lanark: Con 36%, SNP 35%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Did not Corbyn not think his late recovery last time was dramatic enough, and he wanted this one to look even more remarkable?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    Interesting, they seem to think the Greens have got a better chance in Dulwich than Bristol West, if I read that right.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    There is significant overlap of the Lab and Con error bars in Uxbridge. Squeaky bum.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.

    And there’s no particular reason to expect either this time to be as accurate as last time’s - new electoral conditions make for new variables to allow for.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458

    Something has started.

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
    It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?

    I am upping HP to be 55%/45%
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Pidcock only 5% ahead in North West Durham.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:



    If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.

    I said hold the election on 5th December not 12th. Didn't I say that?

    People are probably pissed off that this (insanely long) election is dragging on so close to Christmas.

    I'm a politics nerd and even I'm bored to tears with it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfair let me have a whole three pounds five pence on the Tories in Lanark
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Esher: Con 46%, LD 44%.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Wokingham is striking. John Redwood might well be feeling a bit jittery.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Artist said:

    Pidcock only 5% ahead in North West Durham.

    That's less than before I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458

    Something has started.

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
    It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?

    I am upping HP to be 55%/45%
    Based on a 9% lead? I thought it needed to be within seven. :D
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019
    This may be the poll CCHQ wanted - too close for anyone voting Tory to rest on their laurels. They'll be hoping it gets some coverage and compels people to turn out on Thursday.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    He hates this country almost as much as he hates the Jews. Well done you.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov MRP polled through today so these numbers are right up to date

    Apart from being an average over the last 7 days. ROTFL.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1204526843061317632

    Johnson has got this too.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    The surprise is how badly the Conservatives are doing in scotland and wales.
    No regional poll has them doing that bad.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/10/blow-growth-economy-counts-cost-lingering-brexit-uncertainty/

    Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    funkhauser said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.

    Do you have no self-awareness?
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    kle4 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    It could. And it could galvanise people to vote Labour even if they are disgusted by the idea, as they can see a path to stopping the Tories.
    This is the issue. For those Tories horrified that Corbyn could lead a minority government and unbelieving that people could let it happen. There are those of us who are just as anti Johnson leading any government.

    The desire not to let it happen is broadly equal.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    funkhauser said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.

    Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early to say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458

    Something has started.

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
    It looks like something significant happened in the last day or so though, tactical voting? Johnson video? Undecideds?

    I am upping HP to be 55%/45%
    Based on a 9% lead? I thought it needed to be within seven. :D
    Looks like 8 would do it now.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1204524641399824385

    Good riddance . Hopefully IDS and Raab join her .
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Tories still set clear to win, but with luck, courage and hard work we could just about deny them a blank cheque Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1204525518315544582

    Phew

    Interesting change. LDs were not out of it in the last MRP so if the fear was the Tories winning it back its surprising they could not squeeze Labour, instead their prospective supporters fled back to Labour.
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.

    Well yes, it is not magically accurate or anything. Does it feel right? Not really, the polls have been steady enough, but with so many close calls there's such a wide range anything from 315-395 looks possible on very similar final votes.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Andy_JS said:

    Artist said:

    Pidcock only 5% ahead in North West Durham.

    That's less than before I think.
    No wonder we haven't seen her on the telly.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    In a world of possibles, maybes, probables, I'd be interested to know what numbers people put on the break points Tory Govt for these imprecisions in the context of Tory vote share - hung, can't rule out, possible, probable, almost certain. I haven't ventured an opinion because I feel quite cowed by the level of expertise on the subject exhibited on here.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Floater said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/10/blow-growth-economy-counts-cost-lingering-brexit-uncertainty/

    Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.

    Project Fear.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Wales disappointing for the blues versus recent Wales-wide poll. They must have hopes there for it to be better than forecast.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Byronic said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    He hates this country almost as much as he hates the Jews. Well done you.
    Well I am Jewish so I won’t be lectured by you on morals.

    I hate Corbyn but I hate Boris more.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Anyone voting Labour in Esher needs a smack upside the head.
  • kjohnw1kjohnw1 Posts: 95
    Boris needs to get outside Downing Street tomorrow and make a statement assuring the people that the NHS is safe in his hands and that no one should have to be without a bed. He needs to link the Brexit dividend back to the NHS and promise £350 million extra a week from the moment we leave .
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    I note that references to MOE are that it heads to "Hung Territory". Equally on the other side it heads to "Landslide"!
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Surely 317 Tory seats this time wouldn't be enough with DUP support, aren't they set to lose two?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    BTW - this might focus peoples minds on the possibility of Corbyn in Downing street

    I can retire and ride this out - not everyone can do that
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204525518890131458

    Something has started.

    True the direction of travel is up for Labour.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    It's a shit poll.

    But we are still ahead in Lanark!

    2 days to go and we will know for sure
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/t_wainwright/status/1204526680980758534
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Come on Con 325 - Tories would be able to pass the WA, but Boris Johnson would not be able to claim to be another Tory PM who won an official majority.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Byronic said:

    The final TSE remark on Boris is not justified.

    When Boris went for this election, remember what most people said? That an overall majority would be really hard, that the combination of BXP, tactical voting, resurgent Lib Dems, difficult seats, etc etc etc, meant it was almost impossible for him to get a resounding win.

    If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.

    As it happens, it is now a toss-up between a small majority and a hung parliament.

    The Tories have fought a tight and clever campaign, with some great messaging, but it was always an uphill struggle: for a governing party to win a fourth term in a row?

    If these were normal times, as a rightwinger, I would now say, fair's fair, it's time for the other guys, give them a go.

    But these are not normal times. The other guy is a Marxist and an anti-Semite.

    We are fucked.

    4th term in a row? You realise the last 2 terms have hardly been of significant length right?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    funkhauser said:

    Gallowgate said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    He is still better than a mendacious sociopath of a clown. The SNP will keep Jezza in line.

    I still predict Con 360+. Are we having a PB NoJam contest?
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