After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And in your choice of government you choose to ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address... climate change - with the Tories we may not bother trying they have shown they will do and invest less than nothing. And that's just UK, but what our gov does will have ripples via other gov's actions throughout the world.
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson: - cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate (Darius Guppy, circa 1990) - published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' (Taki, circa 2001 in Spectator) - has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion, - makes policy on the trot - changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights) - isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party - lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale - - is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
Have we ever had a case where one party is 9-10% ahead of their closest rival and still a huge doubt of possibility of a majority?
We had a lot of this talk ahead of the 2010 election, where Cameron's Tories were often polling 10+ points ahead of Brown but they would still have only been scraping a win. There was, as a result, talk of reforming the boundaries. Remember those heady days?! Only 10 years ago but seemingly a lifetime.
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And you ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address...
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson: - cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate - published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' - has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion, - makes policy on the trot - changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights) - isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party - lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale - - is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Am I the only person who's been unable to log in to Vanilla for weeks?
Nothing exciting to report - things I wanted to say in the interim have generally been picked up on by someone else or the moment to comment has passed - but I liked how BoJo's "Brexit Actually" piece on youtube was hijacked, at least for me, by a two-minute advert for the Bavarian government that starts with a newsflash warning how Britain could be on the brink of a two-year Brexit recession and goes on to extol how "Bavaria is great for Business. No Brexit. No uncertainties." Cheeky. Though perhaps not reaching their target audience...
That's really bad news for the Tories. They should be smashing it there.
It isn't, their vote is more efficient, sweeping Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands while holding seats with smaller majorities in the South.
Labour piling up votes in London but only gaining just 2 Tory seats in the capital
One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.
SAD.
Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.
The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.
Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%
I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.
Under Corbyn we could well be, or at least close to it, hence those with assets and property owners will still vote Tory and keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse whilst Corbynism is the alternative
Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
If Con + LD = majority then they could ask the yellows to vote confidence in the Government in exchange for a second EU referendum - Deal vs Remain - to get the Brexit question sorted out (assuming that the EU27 also agree to allow time for it, which is likely though not certain.) It would allow the Government to continue to function for the purposes of day-to-day administration, although they'd not be able to get anything apart from the referendum legislation and perhaps a minimal budget through Parliament.
After the referendum there would be another GE, regardless of the outcome.
I suppose that a new arrangement with the DUP is also possible, though whether that would work with Boris Johnson still in place as PM I don't know - and whether this might then lead to a second referendum, an attempt to negotiate a soft Brexit or, indeed, No Deal is also very hard to say.
This has been my thoughts too. I think if the Cons are close, but no majority, Swinson will offer C&S in exchange for a 2nd Ref. She won't go into government with them however.
As you then say, referendum next summer.
Remain win - Swinson ecsastic, Johnson (should) resign [1] and government collapses - GE to follow in the Autumn Deal win - Johnson pleased, but Swinson pulls plug immediately, so we Leave but GE follows.
Problem with above is that putting the Deal vs Remain means that if the Deal wins, it is possible that unless the timetable is extended, we could actually find out we take the Deal AFTER the deadline to ask for an extension from December 2020 has passed. Giving the UK five months to negotiate a FTA and no (official) chance to extend the transition!
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And in your choice of government you choose to ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address... climate change - with the Tories we may not bother trying they have shown they will do and invest less than nothing. And that's just UK, but what our gov does will have ripples via other gov's actions throughout the world.
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson: - cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate (Darius Guppy, circa 1990) - published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' (Taki, circa 2001 in Spectator) - has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion, - makes policy on the trot - changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights) - isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party - lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale - - is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
You forgot to mention Corbyn's racist Labour party currently being investigated by the Equalities & Human Rights commission who also investigated the BNP.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
If Con + LD = majority then they could ask the yellows to vote confidence in the Government in exchange for a second EU referendum - Deal vs Remain - to get the Brexit question sorted out (assuming that the EU27 also agree to allow time for it, which is likely though not certain.) It would allow the Government to continue to function for the purposes of day-to-day administration, although they'd not be able to get anything apart from the referendum legislation and perhaps a minimal budget through Parliament.
After the referendum there would be another GE, regardless of the outcome.
I suppose that a new arrangement with the DUP is also possible, though whether that would work with Boris Johnson still in place as PM I don't know - and whether this might then lead to a second referendum, an attempt to negotiate a soft Brexit or, indeed, No Deal is also very hard to say.
This has been my thoughts too. I think if the Cons are close, but no majority, Swinson will offer C&S in exchange for a 2nd Ref. She won't go into government with them however.
As you then say, referendum next summer.
Remain win - Swinson ecsastic, Johnson (should) resign [1] and government collapses - GE to follow in the Autumn Deal win - Johnson pleased, but Swinson pulls plug immediately, so we Leave but GE follows.
Problem with above is that putting the Deal vs Remain means that if the Deal wins, it is possible that unless the timetable is extended, we could actually find out we take the Deal AFTER the deadline to ask for an extension from December 2020 has passed. Giving the UK five months to negotiate a FTA and no (official) chance to extend the transition!
[1] I bet he won't.
Forget it. No Conservative is going to agree to a Second Referendum or a watered down Brexit after what happened to Theresa May. The Conservative party got almost completely destroyed in the spring electorally.
This has been my thoughts too. I think if the Cons are close, but no majority, Swinson will offer C&S in exchange for a 2nd Ref. She won't go into government with them however.
As you then say, referendum next summer.
Remain win - Swinson ecsastic, Johnson (should) resign [1] and government collapses - GE to follow in the Autumn Deal win - Johnson pleased, but Swinson pulls plug immediately, so we Leave but GE follows.
Problem with above is that putting the Deal vs Remain means that if the Deal wins, it is possible that unless the timetable is extended, we could actually find out we take the Deal AFTER the deadline to ask for an extension from December 2020 has passed. Giving the UK five months to negotiate a FTA and no (official) chance to extend the transition!
[1] I bet he won't.
Agreeing to that would be suicide for Boris, and the Tories.
If it is a HP surely moving straight to another GE is the better option.
It may well result in a coalition of SNP/Lab/LD but that will collapse as soon as R2 is held and remain win.
Labour will carry the can in the Mids/NW/NE for 'stealing Brexit'.
I said a few threads back for my legion of fans in here ! The Daily Mirror should lead with David Merritt’s interview on Sky News with the powerful line .
“Johnson saw my sons death not as a tragedy but as an opportunity” and low and behold that’s their front page.
There’s some pretty horrible front pages though for Corbyn caused by Ashworths idiocy . I can only imagine behind the scenes what Corbyn and his team said to him after he managed to help Bozo out !
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And in your choice of government you choose to ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address... climate change - with the Tories we may not bother trying they have shown they will do and invest less than nothing. And that's just UK, but what our gov does will have ripples via other gov's actions throughout the world.
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson: - cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate (Darius Guppy, circa 1990) - published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' (Taki, circa 2001 in Spectator) - has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion, - makes policy on the trot - changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights) - isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party - lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale - - is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
Under a strong party system every single vote counts. https://twitter.com/anotherlucienc/status/1204524861873434624 I'm amazed that the Conservatives have not yet understood that most seats from now on will gravitate towards a 50-50 split. As it happens under a strong two party system during a switch in coalitions.
Have we ever had a case where one party is 9-10% ahead of their closest rival and still a huge doubt of possibility of a majority?
We had a lot of this talk ahead of the 2010 election, where Cameron's Tories were often polling 10+ points ahead of Brown but they would still have only been scraping a win. There was, as a result, talk of reforming the boundaries. Remember those heady days?! Only 10 years ago but seemingly a lifetime.
One of Mr Cameron's more foolish choices was not changing the seat total back to 650 - the LDs would have gotten into line (as they were the biggest losers from 650-to-600), and we would have had much fairer boundaries.
Worth noting that YouGov MRP still has Con on 43 which is pretty much their peak share.
The big picture isn't Con slipping (even with phonegate) - rather it is Lab gaining share and in particular gaining in the right places.
It's not clear to me that Con can necessarily do much about that.
It's essentially a carbon copy of 2017 - the only question being can Lab close the gap quick enough to get a result similar to 2017 or does Con just hold on.
Also appears that MRP has an awful lot of very, very close seats so there's going to be quite a bit of luck involved with maybe 5 to 10 seats with wafer thin margins that could go either way. And those 5 to 10 seats may well decide it.
Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.
I said similar a few days ago.
Historically voters have grown out of Labour as they got in to their 30s, got married, bought their own home, had children, grandchildren etc.
These are all the drivers of a change of mindset that moves a person on from the naive idealism of youth to the acceptance of reality.
Without giving those in their 20s and 30s a real stake in their society then there is little to stop them saying 'f*ck it' and metaphorically kicking the table over via a Corbyn type government.
Housing affordability really needs to be right at the top of the priority list if the Tories do secure a majority.
As well as age, the other big factor in voting Labour is level of education.
Now that may be measuring the same thing (the massive rise in graduates over the last few decades would mean there are a lot more "young" graduates, than older ones).
But if the link between education and Labour holds up, as those graduates hit their 50s and 60s, will the link between voting Tory and age break down?
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
If Con + LD = majority then they could ask the yellows to vote confidence in the Government in exchange for a second EU referendum - Deal vs Remain - to get the Brexit question sorted out (assuming that the EU27 also agree to allow time for it, which is likely though not certain.) It would allow the Government to continue to function for the purposes of day-to-day administration, although they'd not be able to get anything apart from the referendum legislation and perhaps a minimal budget through Parliament.
After the referendum there would be another GE, regardless of the outcome.
I suppose that a new arrangement with the DUP is also possible, though whether that would work with Boris Johnson still in place as PM I don't know - and whether this might then lead to a second referendum, an attempt to negotiate a soft Brexit or, indeed, No Deal is also very hard to say.
This has been my thoughts too. I think if the Cons are close, but no majority, Swinson will offer C&S in exchange for a 2nd Ref. She won't go into government with them however.
As you then say, referendum next summer.
Remain win - Swinson ecsastic, Johnson (should) resign [1] and government collapses - GE to follow in the Autumn Deal win - Johnson pleased, but Swinson pulls plug immediately, so we Leave but GE follows.
Problem with above is that putting the Deal vs Remain means that if the Deal wins, it is possible that unless the timetable is extended, we could actually find out we take the Deal AFTER the deadline to ask for an extension from December 2020 has passed. Giving the UK five months to negotiate a FTA and no (official) chance to extend the transition!
[1] I bet he won't.
Forget it. No Conservative is going to agree to a Second Referendum or a watered down Brexit after what happened to Theresa May. The Conservative party got almost completely destroyed in the spring electorally.
Farage would love it though.
Yep, the Conservative party nearly fractured over May pissing about with the Brexit deadline. If the Conservatives did a deal for a new referendum then the Tory party would be toast at the subsequent GE regardless of the referendum outcome. It isn't worth it.
Have we ever had a case where one party is 9-10% ahead of their closest rival and still a huge doubt of possibility of a majority?
We had a lot of this talk ahead of the 2010 election, where Cameron's Tories were often polling 10+ points ahead of Brown but they would still have only been scraping a win. There was, as a result, talk of reforming the boundaries. Remember those heady days?! Only 10 years ago but seemingly a lifetime.
One of Mr Cameron's more foolish choices was not changing the seat total back to 650 - the LDs would have gotten into line (as they were the biggest losers from 650-to-600), and we would have had much fairer boundaries.
Yes, except the Lib Dems refused to back those changes out of pure spite rather than principle. If you can call that a principle.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
If Con + LD = majority then they could ask the yellows to vote confidence in the Government in exchange for a second EU referendum - Deal vs Remain - to get the Brexit question sorted out (assuming that the EU27 also agree to allow time for it, which is likely though not certain.) It would allow the Government to continue to function for the purposes of day-to-day administration, although they'd not be able to get anything apart from the referendum legislation and perhaps a minimal budget through Parliament.
After the referendum there would be another GE, regardless of the outcome.
I suppose that a new arrangement with the DUP is also possible, though whether that would work with Boris Johnson still in place as PM I don't know - and whether this might then lead to a second referendum, an attempt to negotiate a soft Brexit or, indeed, No Deal is also very hard to say.
This has been my thoughts too. I think if the Cons are close, but no majority, Swinson will offer C&S in exchange for a 2nd Ref. She won't go into government with them however.
As you then say, referendum next summer.
Remain win - Swinson ecsastic, Johnson (should) resign [1] and government collapses - GE to follow in the Autumn Deal win - Johnson pleased, but Swinson pulls plug immediately, so we Leave but GE follows.
Problem with above is that putting the Deal vs Remain means that if the Deal wins, it is possible that unless the timetable is extended, we could actually find out we take the Deal AFTER the deadline to ask for an extension from December 2020 has passed. Giving the UK five months to negotiate a FTA and no (official) chance to extend the transition!
[1] I bet he won't.
Forget it. No Conservative is going to agree to a Second Referendum or a watered down Brexit after what happened to Theresa May. The Conservative party got almost completely destroyed in the spring electorally.
Farage would love it though.
Yep, the Conservative party nearly fractured over May pissing about with the Brexit deadline. If the Conservatives did a deal for a new referendum then the Tory party would be toast at the subsequent GE regardless of the referendum outcome. It isn't worth it.
Perhaps the other parties should accept the WA and demand a referendum to choose between the future relationship and rejoining.
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And you ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address...
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson: - cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate - published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' - has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion, - makes policy on the trot - changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights) - isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party - lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale - - is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Our emissions targets give us, on the best knowledge we have, only 50-50% chance!
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK. We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
It’s not “nobody taking your side”
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
This is total hysteria.
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
Vote Corbyn get McDonald
How very Democratic
Who , Ramsey?
Lab wont be forming a Govt IMO but hopefully enough seats that Tories dont have a Majority either.
Worth noting that YouGov MRP still has Con on 43 which is pretty much their peak share.
The big picture isn't Con slipping (even with phonegate) - rather it is Lab gaining share and in particular gaining in the right places.
It's not clear to me that Con can necessarily do much about that.
It's essentially a carbon copy of 2017 - the only question being can Lab close the gap quick enough to get a result similar to 2017 or does Con just hold on.
Also appears that MRP has an awful lot of very, very close seats so there's going to be quite a bit of luck involved with maybe 5 to 10 seats with wafer thin margins that could go either way. And those 5 to 10 seats may well decide it.
It isn't because Boris is doing a Trump and getting an above average swing in white working class ex industrial areas to get Brexit done, the Tories are forecast to gain 32 seats all bar 2 North of Watford while Labour is forecast to gain only 2 seats, both in London
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And in your choice of government you choose to ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address... climate change - with the Tories we may not bother trying they have shown they will do and invest less than nothing. And that's just UK, but what our gov does will have ripples via other gov's actions throughout the world.
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson: - cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate (Darius Guppy, circa 1990) - published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' (Taki, circa 2001 in Spectator) - has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion, - makes policy on the trot - changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights) - isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party - lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale - - is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
You forgot to mention Corbyn's racist Labour party currently being investigated by the Equalities & Human Rights commission who also investigated the BNP.
Labour & the BNP who would have thought it?.
Indeed yes. And the Tories? They are on their fifth(? can't keep count) anti-semitic parliamentary candidate under investigation, plus 1 for islamaphobia (and one for both and more).
Yet unlike SNP and Lab LD and even Brexit party (who only had 1 or 2 incidents each), the Tories have yet to suspend 4 of those candidates with 1 day to go! So much for one bounce and you're out.
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And you ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address...
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson: - cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate - published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' - has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion, - makes policy on the trot - changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights) - isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party - lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale - - is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Our emissions targets give us, on the best knowledge we have, only 50-50% chance!
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK. We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Our emissions targets give us, on the best knowledge we have, only 50-50% chance!
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK. We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
So imagine how much better, crucially better, if we had significant research investment, and huge technological investment? Rather than Cons who want to take no responsibility for it. Nor have the points I raised above been addressed: re renewable energy cuts, feed-ins etc... How much better we'd be on this without Tories and their cognitive distortions.
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Our emissions targets give us, on the best knowledge we have, only 50-50% chance!
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK. We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
There's something slightly odd about that chart. You see, nuclear is a little bit less than 20% of UK electrical generation. So, 29% + 29% + 19% = 77%.
What is the 23% of UK electrical generation that is not renewable (wind, hydro, solar), fossil fuel (coal, gas) and nuclear?
Have we ever had a case where one party is 9-10% ahead of their closest rival and still a huge doubt of possibility of a majority?
We had a lot of this talk ahead of the 2010 election, where Cameron's Tories were often polling 10+ points ahead of Brown but they would still have only been scraping a win. There was, as a result, talk of reforming the boundaries. Remember those heady days?! Only 10 years ago but seemingly a lifetime.
One of Mr Cameron's more foolish choices was not changing the seat total back to 650 - the LDs would have gotten into line (as they were the biggest losers from 650-to-600), and we would have had much fairer boundaries.
Yes, except the Lib Dems refused to back those changes out of pure spite rather than principle. If you can call that a principle.
Not spite at all. The Conservatives in coalition took the Lib Dems for granted, and thought they could double cross them at any time they chose. It was necessary for the Lib Dems to show them from time to time that they had to play fairly. Spite was all on the Conservative side.
After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Our emissions targets give us, on the best knowledge we have, only 50-50% chance!
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK. We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
Hmmm.
Targets can be adjusted at will. We did far better than both our first two 5-year carbon budgets, set by the Climate Committee.
Green Investment Bank has *not* been closed; it has been sold to where it can be more useful.
Solar probably does not need subsidy any more. That can now be spent on technologies that actually need it. What we need is people willing to invest in their own homes, rather than demand to suckle on the government tit. Personally I would add a band of Council Tax and 1% to Stamp Duty for poor eco quality properties.
There is a programme of peat restoration underway at English Heritage. You need to talk to the Irish, who still burn it for power, despite also having excellent wind resources.
The last number I saw was that our power sector has reduced Greenhouse Emissions by 60% since 1990. Think that is an intensity number.
The Green Lobby need to drop this self-hating thing and get with the programme.
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Our emissions targets give us, on the best knowledge we have, only 50-50% chance!
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK. We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
So imagine how much better, crucially better, if we had significant research investment, and huge technological investment? Rather than Cons who want to take no responsibility for it. Nor have the points I raised above been addressed: re renewable energy cuts, feed-ins etc... How much better we'd be on this without Tories and their cognitive distortions.
The UK has a £3.5k electric vehicle subsidy. When the new company car tax rates come in April 2020 it will make little sense for company car owners to drive anything but a Tesla Model 3 or one of the slew of other new releases coming in the next 18 months.
The UK offshore wind industry has benefited from public subsidy and generous fixed prices to the extent that it’s now taking over on an economic rather than subsidy basis. It’s a leading industry globally and since 2010 the UK has installed more offshore wind than any other country. While more distributed solar is always welcome, the UK cannot move the dial on the solar industry at a global level. Far better to have created a new globally leading Industry that can be applied overseas, while creating jobs in coastal towns.
As a result the UK has almost entirely phased out coal, while Germany, the de facto capital of the EU, furiously scrambles to catch up.
Stop being such a misery guts. There is broad political consensus in the UK on climate change. I’m astonished that people think the best way of facilitating an energy technology revolution is by expropriating private utility companies and whacking up corporation and personal taxation. Far better for the Uk govt to create an amenable environment for business to allow r&d and investment to flourish.
The UK is meeting our emissions targets, it is the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia, India etc who are not
Our emissions targets give us, on the best knowledge we have, only 50-50% chance!
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK. We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
There's something slightly odd about that chart. You see, nuclear is a little bit less than 20% of UK electrical generation. So, 29% + 29% + 19% = 77%.
What is the 23% of UK electrical generation that is not renewable (wind, hydro, solar), fossil fuel (coal, gas) and nuclear?
I'm an idiot. The y-axis is terrawatt hours, not % of electrical generation.
Here are the 11 seats I'll be watching on election night, and the sizes of Labour majority that will be needed to indicate a hung parliament or Labour the largest party in the Commons. The model is far more rough and ready than the one I used last time which at 1.50am (I think even at 1.30am) was superior to the BBC's, and it probably won't perform anywhere near as well, but here you go. I wanted to watch only five seats, but then Plaid Cymru entered the picture and I also realised that some seats that declared early in 2017 may declare late this time, so the number rose to 11. I won't describe all the details (although it doesn't have many), but basically the model asks to what extent the "Spout on about Brexit to encourage white working class people to stop voting Labour" strategy will actually work for the Tories.
You forgot to mention Corbyn's racist Labour party currently being investigated by the Equalities & Human Rights commission who also investigated the BNP.
Labour & the BNP who would have thought it?.
Indeed yes. And the Tories? They are on their fifth(? can't keep count) anti-semitic parliamentary candidate under investigation, plus 1 for islamaphobia (and one for both and more).
Yet unlike SNP and Lab LD and even Brexit party (who only had 1 or 2 incidents each), the Tories have yet to suspend 4 of those candidates with 1 day to go! So much for one bounce and you're out.
According to the Telegraph the Labour count is actually 30.
It has been widely rumoured around Westminster that Corbyn is ill, perhaps even suffering from vascular dementia. For what it is worth, every one of the dozen or so sources to whom I spoke for this piece – who spoke on the condition of anonymity and included MPs, former shadow cabinet ministers and senior Labour officials – denied this. According to a former leadership contender: “Look, Jeremy is repulsive, wrong and stupid. But that’s not a medical condition. It’s just very bad news for Labour.”
Invest 52.38% of your total stake on Labour to win Putney with Bet Victor at Evens Invest the remaining 47.62% of your stake on the Tories to win Putney at 6/5 with bet 365
Earn 4.70% on your total stake in 3 days whichever party wins.
Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.
I said similar a few days ago.
Historically voters have grown out of Labour as they got in to their 30s, got married, bought their own home, had children, grandchildren etc.
These are all the drivers of a change of mindset that moves a person on from the naive idealism of youth to the acceptance of reality.
Without giving those in their 20s and 30s a real stake in their society then there is little to stop them saying 'f*ck it' and metaphorically kicking the table over via a Corbyn type government.
Housing affordability really needs to be right at the top of the priority list if the Tories do secure a majority.
As well as age, the other big factor in voting Labour is level of education.
Now that may be measuring the same thing (the massive rise in graduates over the last few decades would mean there are a lot more "young" graduates, than older ones).
But if the link between education and Labour holds up, as those graduates hit their 50s and 60s, will the link between voting Tory and age break down?
This election has been marked by Labour doing relatively really well amongst educated middle class voters and being less successful amongst white working class northern men.
Under a strong party system every single vote counts. https://twitter.com/anotherlucienc/status/1204524861873434624 I'm amazed that the Conservatives have not yet understood that most seats from now on will gravitate towards a 50-50 split. As it happens under a strong two party system during a switch in coalitions.
I suspect the last bets I will be making on this will be against the Tory expected gains north of the red wall. I have only had one reasonably small bet so far on a total seats basis for one of the parties as it has been a bit of a bugger to predict however I think, unless Mr. Farage does a last minute deal with Mr. Johnson, the tories won’t break through.
Like the last election there has been no detailed examination of Labour's manifesto on TV or much of the media.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly: 1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/ 2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!
Comments
Do you have any sense of irony when you list reasons for hating Corbyn/Labour that apply equally or more to Johnson? On security risk, antisemitism, racism. And in your choice of government you choose to ignore the most important issue of our time that will affect humanity far into the future, which only Lab/Greens dare to address... climate change - with the Tories we may not bother trying they have shown they will do and invest less than nothing. And that's just UK, but what our gov does will have ripples via other gov's actions throughout the world.
You want to give a majority to the nasty racist party with an immoral, dangerous, machiavellian leader...
Johnson:
- cares not a jot about climate change and what the best evidence we have to go on says we must do urgently - people like that in Cons in charge of our planet are short-term blinkered selfish idiots
- agreed to hire a thug to beat up a journalist who pissed off his mega-rich mate (Darius Guppy, circa 1990)
- published a disgusting anti-Semitic article for another mega-rich mate, about the 'global Jewish conspiracy' (Taki, circa 2001 in Spectator)
- has no shame in casually lying to suit about Irish sea, rail expansion,
- makes policy on the trot
- changes view with the wind to suit his career (including on Brexit, immigration, HS2, Heathrow, gay rights)
- isn't trusted with the nation's security to the extent he had access limited as foreign secretary, by his own party
- lifelong Tory party seniors, ex-Tory ministers, warning he's unfit for office, that they don't trust him, lack confidence in him - sound familiar @Casino_Royale -
- is directly racist and homophobic and happy to slag off the 'lowly precariat' for amusement
Nothing exciting to report - things I wanted to say in the interim have generally been picked up on by someone else or the moment to comment has passed - but I liked how BoJo's "Brexit Actually" piece on youtube was hijacked, at least for me, by a two-minute advert for the Bavarian government that starts with a newsflash warning how Britain could be on the brink of a two-year Brexit recession and goes on to extol how "Bavaria is great for Business. No Brexit. No uncertainties." Cheeky. Though perhaps not reaching their target audience...
https://www.invest-in-bavaria.com/brexit/
As you then say, referendum next summer.
Remain win - Swinson ecsastic, Johnson (should) resign [1] and government collapses - GE to follow in the Autumn
Deal win - Johnson pleased, but Swinson pulls plug immediately, so we Leave but GE follows.
Problem with above is that putting the Deal vs Remain means that if the Deal wins, it is possible that unless the timetable is extended, we could actually find out we take the Deal AFTER the deadline to ask for an extension from December 2020 has passed. Giving the UK five months to negotiate a FTA and no (official) chance to extend the transition!
[1] I bet he won't.
You forgot to mention Corbyn's racist Labour party currently being investigated by the Equalities & Human Rights commission who also investigated the BNP.
Labour & the BNP who would have thought it?.
No Conservative is going to agree to a Second Referendum or a watered down Brexit after what happened to Theresa May.
The Conservative party got almost completely destroyed in the spring electorally.
Farage would love it though.
If it is a HP surely moving straight to another GE is the better option.
It may well result in a coalition of SNP/Lab/LD but that will collapse as soon as R2 is held and remain win.
Labour will carry the can in the Mids/NW/NE for 'stealing Brexit'.
I said a few threads back for my legion of fans in here ! The Daily Mirror should lead with David Merritt’s interview on Sky News with the powerful line .
“Johnson saw my sons death not as a tragedy but as an opportunity” and low and behold that’s their front page.
There’s some pretty horrible front pages though for Corbyn caused by Ashworths idiocy . I can only imagine behind the scenes what Corbyn and his team said to him after he managed to help Bozo out !
https://twitter.com/anotherlucienc/status/1204524861873434624
I'm amazed that the Conservatives have not yet understood that most seats from now on will gravitate towards a 50-50 split. As it happens under a strong two party system during a switch in coalitions.
The big picture isn't Con slipping (even with phonegate) - rather it is Lab gaining share and in particular gaining in the right places.
It's not clear to me that Con can necessarily do much about that.
It's essentially a carbon copy of 2017 - the only question being can Lab close the gap quick enough to get a result similar to 2017 or does Con just hold on.
Also appears that MRP has an awful lot of very, very close seats so there's going to be quite a bit of luck involved with maybe 5 to 10 seats with wafer thin margins that could go either way. And those 5 to 10 seats may well decide it.
Now that may be measuring the same thing (the massive rise in graduates over the last few decades would mean there are a lot more "young" graduates, than older ones).
But if the link between education and Labour holds up, as those graduates hit their 50s and 60s, will the link between voting Tory and age break down?
Rebecca Long-Bailey @42 is the standout one...shame I greened up the book at some point to lock in a profit of £4.80 😂
We have to do much much better than that. Also, we have to go further than that, as other countries wont. Even if they should, we can only do what we do, but emissions reductions only count globally.
We have much more scope in the UK.
We have the most wind power available in Europe to harness
Tories have closed the Green Investment Bank, stopped solar subsidies and closed the feed-in tariff drastically halting solar improvements, devastating the solar industry. They've also stopped most on-shore windfarms.
The deadline for stopping non-electrical car production is a ridiculous 2045 (by which time it will have come about in any event, so saving the gov significant intervention, except that we need it much more urgently!)
There are no peatland protections which provide a huge carbon sink and are dwindling.
Yet unlike SNP and Lab LD and even Brexit party (who only had 1 or 2 incidents each), the Tories have yet to suspend 4 of those candidates with 1 day to go! So much for one bounce and you're out.
Nor have the points I raised above been addressed: re renewable energy cuts, feed-ins etc... How much better we'd be on this without Tories and their cognitive distortions.
The most sensible thing you have posted all year, TSE.
What is the 23% of UK electrical generation that is not renewable (wind, hydro, solar), fossil fuel (coal, gas) and nuclear?
Targets can be adjusted at will. We did far better than both our first two 5-year carbon budgets, set by the Climate Committee.
Green Investment Bank has *not* been closed; it has been sold to where it can be more useful.
Solar probably does not need subsidy any more. That can now be spent on technologies that actually need it. What we need is people willing to invest in their own homes, rather than demand to suckle on the government tit. Personally I would add a band of Council Tax and 1% to Stamp Duty for poor eco quality properties.
There is a programme of peat restoration underway at English Heritage. You need to talk to the Irish, who still burn it for power, despite also having excellent wind resources.
The last number I saw was that our power sector has reduced Greenhouse Emissions by 60% since 1990. Think that is an intensity number.
The Green Lobby need to drop this self-hating thing and get with the programme.
The UK offshore wind industry has benefited from public subsidy and generous fixed prices to the extent that it’s now taking over on an economic rather than subsidy basis. It’s a leading industry globally and since 2010 the UK has installed more offshore wind than any other country. While more distributed solar is always welcome, the UK cannot move the dial on the solar industry at a global level. Far better to have created a new globally leading Industry that can be applied overseas, while creating jobs in coastal towns.
As a result the UK has almost entirely phased out coal, while Germany, the de facto capital of the EU, furiously scrambles to catch up.
Stop being such a misery guts. There is broad political consensus in the UK on climate change. I’m astonished that people think the best way of facilitating an energy technology revolution is by expropriating private utility companies and whacking up corporation and personal taxation. Far better for the Uk govt to create an amenable environment for business to allow r&d and investment to flourish.
https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1204582368436269056
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/06/30-labour-candidates-accused-anti-semitism-defending-colleagues/
I'd say that all of these numbers are somewhat exaggerated for political knockabout / tatical smear reasons.
https://newclimate.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/CCPI-2020-Results_Web_Version.pdf
Perhaps extinction rebellion would be better placed focussing on the other countries further down the list (ie all of them ex Sweden, Denmark & Morocco...)
https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/12/10/191210-corbyns-victory/content.html?sig=Fs7-8ZWD_w4KUxUUAPvm9vFOdcXSfuEvIJjByDHUVeE
Johnson sucks. Was he the best hope the tories had? Probably not.
Invest 52.38% of your total stake on Labour to win Putney with Bet Victor at Evens
Invest the remaining 47.62% of your stake on the Tories to win Putney at 6/5 with bet 365
Earn 4.70% on your total stake in 3 days whichever party wins.
Beats working for a living!
As ever, DYOR.
I wonder if anyone took up my tip on her winning?
I have only had one reasonably small bet so far on a total seats basis for one of the parties as it has been a bit of a bugger to predict however I think, unless Mr. Farage does a last minute deal with Mr. Johnson, the tories won’t break through.
Behold the glorious future.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly:
1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/
2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!