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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Shame on you
    You chose Boris. You made it a 2-way battle. You made it a culture war.
    Nope. I didn’t choose Boris and I dislike him.

    But there is a certain minimum threshold. A significant proportion of a minority group in this country is thinking of leaving if Corbyn wins.

    That is shameful for the country that it has even got to the stage that they are considering it.

    And shame on anyone who votes for an anti-Semitic party.
    I am Jewish. I can safely vote for my non-Corbynista local Remainer Labour MP with good conscience.
    This paragon of virtue will support Corbyn as PM I assume?

    If so then your argument is bullshit
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
    I am Jewish.
    Then watch this. To the end. It is 7 and a half minutes long, so it's long. But it's worth it. And then tell me you're still voting Corbyn.

    https://youtu.be/ITCX2mDiFzE
    What are you trying to prove? I already hate Corbyn and what Labour has become. I just hate the Conservatives more.

    You’ve had many opportunities to change the voting system so people didn’t have to make such a choice but you didn’t.
    Did you actually watch it? These Labour people hate you, just because you are Jewish.

    How could you possibly vote Labour, after seeing THAT
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    Er... you are the one who has been saying based on these polls it will be a hung Parliament. Show some consistency man!
    I think we're headed for a Hung Parliament. The Daily Mail seems to think we're already there. I'm happy with that.
    You used exactly the same phrase as they did:

    "This election is literally going to come down to the wire"

    :D
    Hopefully not piano wire.....
  • tyson said:

    Gabs3 said:

    tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.
    Loyalists who don't give a fuck about us Jews or the racists that have infected your party. You will vote for Corbyn regardless of what he says or does to us.
    I'm a zionist. I've lived in Israel. And I've stuck with the Labour Party because I still believe in it's bigger message...which is a party that is anti racist
    So in other words you prioritise claiming to be anti-racist over actually being anti-racist.

    This actually seems very common on the left.
  • Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    Yes.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Andy_JS said:

    Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?

    Majority of less than 30.
    Nonsense. He's safe on any working majority. By which I mean any majority that'll allow him to get his WAB through. He needs 322 for an effective parliamentary majority (because of Sinn Fein) - how many of the awkward squad are left on the Tory backbenches to vote against him? Not many. So I think he's safe on 330 seats or so. For the time being...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,967
    rcs1000 said:

    South Cambs: as first forecast by @rcs1000 :smile:

    Perhaps you would like to describe to me the meaning of the phrase "cherry picking"... :)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Apparently Delta Poll show an increase in support for Labour amongst parents with them leading the Tories by 8 points up from 5 points last month .
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
  • tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.

    Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
  • rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    Come on, please spare me the jokes... this doesn't faze you at all?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    speedy2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?

    Majority of less than 30.
    Any majority and he will be fine.
    Well Corbyn will not go anywhere if that is the result.
    Long term good for the Tories that, but in the short term a small majority would be a right bugger best avoided.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    egg said:

    Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017

    Question. Since labour manifesto was published are you sure the Tory’s, Boris and Javid, have artfully, persuasively taken labour’s plans apart and convinced the unconvinced labour’s plans turn us into Venezuela?

    They haven’t, for There are 350M reasons boris and Cummings don’t have the fiscal credibility to batter labour’s manifesto.
    Anti Semite Labour and corbyn played quite well earlier in the campaign, by the end those headlines which seem all over the Tory press in last week merely remind voters of Tory anti Semitism and islamiphobia, it’s become politics taking the hit not just labour.
    Those papers would have been better to stuck to economics not alleged racism.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    nico67 said:

    Apparently Delta Poll show an increase in support for Labour amongst parents with them leading the Tories by 8 points up from 5 points last month .

    Link?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,719

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Shame on you
    You chose Boris. You made it a 2-way battle. You made it a culture war.
    Nope. I didn’t choose Boris and I dislike him.

    But there is a certain minimum threshold. A significant proportion of a minority group in this country is thinking of leaving if Corbyn wins.

    That is shameful for the country that it has even got to the stage that they are considering it.

    And shame on anyone who votes for an anti-Semitic party.
    I am Jewish. I can safely vote for my non-Corbynista local Remainer Labour MP with good conscience.
    Identifiably so? You get shouted at as you walk down the street?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    Hung Parliament.

    This has decided me.

    Shift cash out of the UK tomozza
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    speedy2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    9% ahead for a majority of just 28 would be the worst conversion rate at any general election I know of.

    It's also bang on what the swingometer says.
    Basically a Lead of 7% is needed for a bare majority of 2.

    There are not that many Labour marginals compared with Conservative ones, that's why Corbyn got so increadibly close to being PM last time.
    Close as in 55 seats behind?
    They said close to being PM, not close in seats, the two need not be aligned.
  • kjohnw1kjohnw1 Posts: 95
    edited December 2019
    I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .

    Boris will win , And I think win big
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    edited December 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    What would really blow this election apart would be for Corbyn and Swinson to publicly ask that, for a dozen or so selected seats each, where the other party is the closest challanger, their voters support that challenger rather than vote for their own party.

    That would likely wipe the majority away.

    In fact, from Corbyn's perspective he should do that regardless of any reciprocity from the LDs. If the LDs can grab another dozen seats from the Tories because Labour are tacitly telling their supporters only the LDs can win there, that could make all the difference.

    Not going to happen though is it?

    Swinson has said that she can't support Corbyn as a potential PM.

    You still get a Corbynist administration with someone else as PM. What's the real difference ?
    They will have been elected on - and try to implement - a bat-shit crazy manifesto that will see the most massive flight of wealth this country has ever seen - and a flight of a significant part of the tax base.

    And Labour will be closing hospitals within the year.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    RobD said:

    Ave_it said:

    It looks like Sturgeon and Corbyn will be moving into No 10

    But at 9pm on Thur you will get the most important projection - the Ave It GE2019 forecast!

    SNP Majority government? :)
    It could be there! If so I am moving in with CHB

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently Delta Poll show an increase in support for Labour amongst parents with them leading the Tories by 8 points up from 5 points last month .

    Link?
    It’s reported in the Huffington Post but they don’t have a link up yet .

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    Ave_it said:

    It looks like Sturgeon and Corbyn will be moving into No 10

    But at 9pm on Thur you will get the most important projection - the Ave It GE2019 forecast!

    Up there with Watford winning the League?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,820
    A lot is still going to depend on the efficiency of the Lib Dem and Labour votes. If their votes are in the right seats it could yet be tight but I am expecting a Tory majority of about 40
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    rcs1000 said:

    South Cambs: as first forecast by @rcs1000 :smile:

    He's so amazing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,014

    tyson said:

    Gabs3 said:

    tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.
    Loyalists who don't give a fuck about us Jews or the racists that have infected your party. You will vote for Corbyn regardless of what he says or does to us.
    I'm a zionist. I've lived in Israel. And I've stuck with the Labour Party because I still believe in it's bigger message...which is a party that is anti racist
    So in other words you prioritise claiming to be anti-racist over actually being anti-racist.

    This actually seems very common on the left.
    It's common with all extremism actually Mr Nabavi

    I've stayed in the Lab Party because I feel it will come out the other side better....and if it doesn't, at least I've fought my position from the inside...

  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:

    "Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.

    And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.

    Events, dear boy..."

    IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.

    Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    I think Labour will win more than 2 seats......
  • kjohnw1 said:

    I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .

    Boris will win , And I think win big

    Excellent - garde ta foy!

    Screw the reds on the other side and the bedwetters on our own!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
    Could be another confident Robert Smithson prediction, like calling Potus for Hillary on election night.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently Delta Poll show an increase in support for Labour amongst parents with them leading the Tories by 8 points up from 5 points last month .

    Link?
    It’s reported in the Huffington Post but they don’t have a link up yet .

    How about a link to the Huffington Post article? :p
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
  • Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
    I hope your right I really do . Do we have to wait another day of torture to find out
  • Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.

    So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    South Cambs: as first forecast by @rcs1000 :smile:

    Perhaps you would like to describe to me the meaning of the phrase "cherry picking"... :)
    That means "using appropriate examples to demonstrate your abilities", right?
  • Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.

    So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government

    Are you crazy? The SNP will prop him up in a nanosecond. And the LDs will at best abstain.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,568
    edited December 2019
    tyson said:


    It's common with all extremism actually Mr Nabavi

    I've stayed in the Lab Party because I feel it will come out the other side better....and if it doesn't, at least I've fought my position from the inside...

    That's fair enough - fighting from the inside is entirely honourable, as long as it doesn't involve any delusion about how bad Labour has become under Corbyn, or any attempts at making a false equivalence with Islamophobia in the Conservative Party, for example (to be clear I'm not accusing you of the latter, but it's a very, very common thing amongst Labour members).
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019

    Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.

    So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government

    And.. if everyone follows this logic, then Corbyn gets an actual majority.

    Grow up. We know how this works. This is PB.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    Dadge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?

    Majority of less than 30.
    Nonsense. He's safe on any working majority. By which I mean any majority that'll allow him to get his WAB through. He needs 322 for an effective parliamentary majority (because of Sinn Fein) - how many of the awkward squad are left on the Tory backbenches to vote against him? Not many. So I think he's safe on 330 seats or so. For the time being...
    330 seats will see the Tories fine until an election in the spring of 2024......

    This MRP has 339.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    A glut of polls on the way tomorrow anyway - Survation will be the one to watch. :D

    Goodnight PB :)
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    In which if the tory lead goes back to 11% the majority should be comfortable again
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
    On the other hand, if the MRP had been released yesterday the projected Tory majority would have been about 50.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited December 2019
    kjohnw1 said:

    I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .

    Boris will win , And I think win big

    The thing is, and (anecdote alert) I was chatting with a firm Tory about this the other day who agreed, Corbyn is toxic...until election time. Then people look at this gently speaking grandpa figure who says nice things about peace and listening to others, and protect the NHS, and while many will still not like him and feel he is toxic, the toxicity level seems to decrease and people decide they can risk it.

    I don't think quite enough will this time. But something about him simultaneously repels people away from election time, but doesn't repel them enough during election time. It's not just his opponents, as May and BOris are very different in style and he's done it with both of them, to different degrees.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
    In Camden Town. This election won’t be won down here. It’s in the Leavey provinces and there the Tories are performing strongly. Majority of 30-50.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    Come on, please spare me the jokes... this doesn't faze you at all?
    What it says to me is labour seem to be getting late swing exactly where they need it, whilst Tory seats you would have thought safe five weeks ago have come in tactical play.
    The polling is showing more leave vote than last time and less remain vote. Lab + libdem three down in this yougov. This is the appeal of Boris, holding his remainers converting life long labour blue; or yougov have screwed up.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    kjohnw1 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
    I hope your right I really do . Do we have to wait another day of torture to find out
    Sickeningly long campaign, this one. Get it down to 3 weeks, for fucksake.
  • speedy2 said:

    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
    2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited December 2019
    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    It won't be, because his party is full of a large number of people who aren't.

    My wife who hasn't voted Labour in three elections, and is Jewish, also having not been a Labour member for many years, says she's voting for Corbyn.
  • kjohnw1 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
    I hope your right I really do . Do we have to wait another day of torture to find out
    Sickeningly long campaign, this one. Get it down to 3 weeks, for fucksake.
    In 2017 it was April to June.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,967

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
    Could be another confident Robert Smithson prediction, like calling Potus for Hillary on election night.
    Oh Gods, I'd forgotten that. I'm not lauging. No, siree. [innocent face]
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    You didn't do anything to deserve it. It's simply that the general population isn't interested in the rights of minorities, unless they belong to those minorities themselves or have family or close friends who do.

    The Jewish community is relatively small and, at the orthodox end at least, largely self-segregating. Therefore hardly anyone gives a fuck about you.

    This is a nasty country and if you want to survive in it you have to both fight for your rights and trust to bloody luck. Us gays have only got as far in society as we have by being (a) very noisy and hard to ignore and (b) scattered everywhere, so lots of people have a stake in making sure that we don't get strung up from cranes or thrown off the roofs of tall buildings as happens in other polities of which Mr Corbyn approves. Jews, by contrast, largely live their lives quietly and are concentrated in pockets, so they're easy to pick on. It's as simple as that.

    Israel exists because of people like Corbyn. If you were to conclude that the best response to him was to run away then I wouldn't blame you one iota.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    edited December 2019
    Yougov MRP has Cities of London and Westminster 38% Tory 32% LD and 25% Labour, so Chuka now clearly has the best shot of the LDs in central London with Gyimah now 3rd in Kensington and the Tories over 10% ahead in Chelsea and Fulham and over 20% ahead in Finchley and Golders Green


    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    On a last observation, if the Yougov MRP is correct then once again the GfK Consumer Confidence Index will have been proven correct in forecasting the election.

    It predicted a Hung Parliament with the worst confidence numbers in it's record apart from Gordon Brown's in 2010.

    The bad economy has determined the result.
  • kjohnw1 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
    So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.
    I hope your right I really do . Do we have to wait another day of torture to find out
    Sickeningly long campaign, this one. Get it down to 3 weeks, for fucksake.
    In 2017 it was April to June.
    If Boris does get his majority scrapping the FTPA needs to be one of his first duties
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Curious to see what SI spreads do when they open tomorrow. They haven't been nearly as sensitive to polling as Betfair throughout the campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    nunu2 said:

    Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:

    "Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.

    And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.

    Events, dear boy..."

    IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.

    Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    I think Labour will win more than 2 seats......
    Name them.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    speedy2 said:

    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
    2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!
    Or they quite like Parliament and don't like or trust Boris..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,967
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    South Cambs: as first forecast by @rcs1000 :smile:

    Perhaps you would like to describe to me the meaning of the phrase "cherry picking"... :)
    That means "using appropriate examples to demonstrate your abilities", right?
    No, foolish human. It means "picking cherries from a cherry tree".

    :):)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently Delta Poll show an increase in support for Labour amongst parents with them leading the Tories by 8 points up from 5 points last month .

    Link?
    It’s reported in the Huffington Post but they don’t have a link up yet .

    How about a link to the Huffington Post article? :p
    Lol. I’m on iPad so can’t link or basically don’t know how to . It’s part of a story titled Corbyn makes final pitch to undecided Labour voters .

    The message is good , I just wonder why he didn’t go with this earlier .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Hey now, I live in a safe Tory seat, I can vote anyway I like or not at all and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference, thank you. I voted Tory last time as I figured I should not be able to escape culpability for any crapness the Tories might put us through, but no need to worry about this time.
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited December 2019

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    It won't be, because his party is full of people who aren't.


    And a fat lot of good they have done in trying to stop Labour's racism.

    In case you haven't noticed it's been open season whilst Corbyn's been in opposition.

  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?
    No, the Tories picking up where they need to in the North and Midlands.

    32 Tory gains projected, only 2 Labour, both in London, Chipping Barnet and Putney.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523046201167872?s=20
    32 tory gains is not bad. All they need to do now is hold off the SNP and the yellow peril.

    Wales is like Lucy's football, everytime the tories get close it is snatched away from them at the last moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    I wonder if he will speak and be incredibly ungracious about it if that happens.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
    On the other hand, if the MRP had been released yesterday the projected Tory majority would have been about 50.
    "If the poll had been polled at a different time, it would be different"

    Ye Gods.,
  • I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.

    The reverse seems to be true for the tories: despite their static vote share they're actually performing better or staying stable in extremely safe labour seats, including heavily remain ones (7->12% in Manchester Gorton, 13->16% in Sheffield Central, 9.7->14% in Liverpool Riverside), while generally staying static or only picking up a very modest increase in a lot of labour leave targets (Wrexham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bolsover...), sometimes even going backwards a little bit. This seems to contradict the constituency polls (including the recent Wrexham one) that showed large leads, with the labour vote generally holding up much better than expected.

    This results in a rather inefficient tory vote and a very efficient labour vote compared to what we would expect with a 9% lead (it's barely better than what Cameron got in 2015 with an only 6.5% lead, and that was with the SNP sweeping Scotland). Am I the only one thinking they may have something wrong with their weightings, especially regarding tactical voting?

  • glwglw Posts: 8,876

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    It won't be, because his party is full of people who aren't.

    My wife who hasn't voted Labour in three elections, and is Jewish, says she's voting for Corbyn.
    Ah yes the fabled Labour moderates, they will stop Corybn's mob, and the moderates track record over the last few years is really encouraging, isn't it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    GIN1138 said:

    A glut of polls on the way tomorrow anyway - Survation will be the one to watch. :D

    Goodnight PB :)

    Had a couple of Tories edging up last time - perfect to show a late Labour swing to galvanise their votes, those devious pollsters!
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
    In Camden Town. This election won’t be won down here. It’s in the Leavey provinces and there the Tories are performing strongly. Majority of 30-50.
    The MRP has Sedgefield on a knife edge - that doesn't feel right to me.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    Whatever ! Lol

    Your case would be so much stronger if on the other side we had the Flying Nun not a morally bankrupt liar .
  • Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I find it hard to believe that you're only hitting the sauce now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    nunu2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?
    No, the Tories picking up where they need to in the North and Midlands.

    32 Tory gains projected, only 2 Labour, both in London, Chipping Barnet and Putney.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523046201167872?s=20
    32 tory gains is not bad. All they need to do now is hold off the SNP
    They largely are, 8 Scottish Tory seats projected still including 1 Tory gain from the SNP, Lanark and Hamilton East
  • Byronic said:

    Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.

    So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government

    And.. if everyone follows this logic, then Corbyn gets an actual majority.

    Grow up. We know how this works. This is PB.
    "everyone" being the world outside PB. Again, if Jezbollah is a threat please someone show me all the seats Labour are going to take off the Tories.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Anyone know if Comrade Corbin is taking volunteers for the NKVD arrest squads that PB Tories seem certain will be prowling the streets come Friday morning? I quite fancy shipping SeanT off to the Gulag.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Biggest deficit overturned for a Tory gain predicted to be..Sedgefield?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    kle4 said:

    kjohnw1 said:

    I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .

    Boris will win , And I think win big

    The thing is, and (anecdote alert) I was chatting with a firm Tory about this the other day who agreed, Corbyn is toxic...until election time. Then people look at this gently speaking grandpa figure who says nice things about peace and listening to others, and protect the NHS, and while many will still not like him and feel he is toxic, the toxicity level seems to decrease and people decide they can risk it.

    I don't think quite enough will this time. But something about him simultaneously repels people away from election time, but doesn't repel them enough during election time. It's not just his opponents, as May and BOris are very different in style and he's done it with both of them, to different degrees.
    Jezza is a good campaigner, and does come over as sincere in his beliefs and principled (whether you like those beliefs and principles is a rather different matter!). This is a sharp contrast to BoZo's unprincipled mendacity. People like sincerity.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,568
    edited December 2019
    Andrew said:

    Curious to see what SI spreads do when they open tomorrow. They haven't been nearly as sensitive to polling as Betfair throughout the campaign.

    SpreadEx is still up:

    Con 338-346
    Lab 217-225
    SNP 42-44
    LD 18-22

    I don't think that's a very big change - the Con spread was already down relative to early this morning.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    BluerBlue said:

    speedy2 said:

    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
    2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!
    Same thing happened in the 1970's.
    Unless one tribal side breaks apart, or the SNP disintegrates it will always be a close result.

    The only thing we had is Conservatives voting Labour and Labour voting Conservative by the same numbers.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    BluerBlue said:

    speedy2 said:

    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
    2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!
    Hung parliaments are great. They stop both the Labour Party (barmy) and the Tory Party (bonkers) doing anything. More please!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    rpjs said:

    Anyone know if Comrade Corbin is taking volunteers for the NKVD arrest squads that PB Tories seem certain will be prowling the streets come Friday morning? I quite fancy shipping SeanT off to the Gulag.

    Poor guy's not even here, ahem, but he's getting shipped off.

    And everyone knows the arrest squads will wait until after Christmas. Even the NKVD needed time off.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    edited December 2019
    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
    No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.
    In Camden Town. This election won’t be won down here. It’s in the Leavey provinces and there the Tories are performing strongly. Majority of 30-50.
    The MRP has Sedgefield on a knife edge - that doesn't feel right to me.
    It does, working class Sedgefield voters still love Blair but loathe Corbyn and the Tory candidate is a popular local councillor

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-voted-for-tony-blair-but-dont-mention-corbyn-in-sedgefield-9k7cv0wj7
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:

    "Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.

    And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.

    Events, dear boy..."

    IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.

    Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    I can’t tell if that is an early “Conservatives are doomed & I told you so” or a “nothing has changed”

    Hedge your bets!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    BluerBlue said:

    speedy2 said:

    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
    2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!
    Hung parliaments are great. They stop both the Labour Party (barmy) and the Tory Party (bonkers) doing anything. More please!
    That can be a benefit, and better than a landslide, but occasionally we do need parliaments to do things, and now that coalitions and even formal agreements are a bridge too far for parties, it won't be fun to have a hung parliament, if necessary for certain outcomes.
  • Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698

    Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017

    ok hope you havent put too much on 80 maj or LAB under 200


    You have repeated your normal mistake of Underestimating Jezza

    Fortunately for you he will be gone in 60 hrs despite the loss being fairly narrow.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    Your bedroom predilections are not a fit topic for a family site.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Chris said:


    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.

    They thought of that - MRPs are adjusted to be an estimate of today.

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.

    I will still be up for the Beast no doubt
    I wonder if he will speak and be incredibly ungracious about it if that happens.
    MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.
  • SLAB to pick up Glasgow East according to the MRP. Does anyone actually believe that's plausible?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    edited December 2019

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.

    Edit: or they run the simulation a million times and the topline figure is the median of those million runs.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I find it hard to believe that you're only hitting the sauce now.
    Champagne doesn't count. It is basically oxygen
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    edited December 2019
    Labour now holding most of their Scottish seats, as are the Tories and the LDs holding all theirs. Not a good poll for the SNP.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523085728305159?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited December 2019

    Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017

    ok hope you havent put too much on 80 maj or LAB under 200


    You have repeated your normal mistake of Underestimating Jezza

    Fortunately for you he will be gone in 60 hrs despite the loss being fairly narrow.
    Not sticking around for a transitional period? He should stick around until January - "Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader 2015-2020" looks better for the history books than 2015-2019. Main reason May stuck it out to 2019!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.
    There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.

    Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.
  • eek said:

    BluerBlue said:

    speedy2 said:

    Chris said:

    Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.
    That's what I'm expecting.
    That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.

    It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
    2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!
    Or they quite like Parliament and don't like or trust Boris..
    They will be in for a very nasty shock in that case.
This discussion has been closed.