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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I'm not certain, but are they doing a Monte Carlo job to get the headline seat totals (with error bars), rather than just taking the leader in each seat irrespective of the margin?
    The error bars capture the Monte Carlo element, but the headline is just all the individual seats added up I think.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If Con + LD = majority then they could ask the yellows to vote confidence in the Government in exchange for a second EU referendum - Deal vs Remain - to get the Brexit question sorted out (assuming that the EU27 also agree to allow time for it, which is likely though not certain.) It would allow the Government to continue to function for the purposes of day-to-day administration, although they'd not be able to get anything apart from the referendum legislation and perhaps a minimal budget through Parliament.

    After the referendum there would be another GE, regardless of the outcome.

    I suppose that a new arrangement with the DUP is also possible, though whether that would work with Boris Johnson still in place as PM I don't know - and whether this might then lead to a second referendum, an attempt to negotiate a soft Brexit or, indeed, No Deal is also very hard to say.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?

    I'm not certain, but are they doing a Monte Carlo job to get the headline seat totals (with error bars), rather than just taking the leader in each seat irrespective of the margin?
    The error bars capture the Monte Carlo element, but the headline is just all the individual seats added up I think.
    That makes a huge difference to the headline's accuracy, surely. Anyone able to say for certain?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019
    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
    Who , Ramsey?

    Lab wont be forming a Govt IMO but hopefully enough seats that Tories dont have a Majority either.
    That would be my preference too. At least it still leaves Boris owning Brexit- for good or bad.
  • egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    A far cry from the first weeks of the campaign?
    Strangely a far cry from YouGov's own Wales poll which was asking the same question at exactly the same time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    A far cry from the first weeks of the campaign?
    Strangely a far cry from YouGov's own Wales poll which was asking the same question at exactly the same time.
    Even further cry from Survation on Saturday night....If that is the true picture, then it is 100 majority.
  • speedy2 said:

    eek said:

    BluerBlue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
    How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?
    The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.

    Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.
    Yep I think all the sensible money will be on a No Deal if we are in a Hung Parliament with Tories anything above 315 seats.
    And then the diehard Remainers voting for Corbyn will get exactly the opposite of what they want, but also exactly what they deserve.

    No Deal is far less likely if Boris has a majority!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    egg said:

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    That is your spun Tory view, but labour voters see the lifelong labour MPs and ex ministers like this
    there shouldn’t be any anger towards them, all Labour leadership should urge followers and social media users not to show anger towards these people. everyone goes on a political journey in their life. They deserve to be heard as much as anyone as they bow out of frontline politics …leaving the country and the world in such fine shape where Woodcock in particular supported the unfair slaughter in Yemen, where they have endorsed Bad Brexit deals, and urging you to keep the rotten Tories in power and telling you to vote for privatisation of the NHS.
    But its right they go having, like some people do as they get older, drifted so far to right they are at home supporting Britain's most right wing government, in the case of Mann, accepting job working for Boris and his ERG cabinet.
    Truth is, as they bow out, the next generation coming into politics have to put right the mess on the rail, in the energy bills, at the foodbanks, around the housing crisis, the unfair foreign wars that these guys supported and walking away from.
    Where I would take some issue though is how confused and rather fatuous they are in their movement against extremism, as they endorse Boris extremist policies, they endorse Boris Hard Brexit deal, as these crusaders against extremism tar every Labour candidate every party member and every enthusiastic volunteer as antisemitic and racist, yet they endorse islamophobia in the Tory party out the same mouth.
    its not anger but sympathy we should feel for these lost souls. When the time comes, pray it be many years hence, may St Peter be merciful on them, as we pray he is merciful on everyone who lost their soul along the way.
    And if you see it like that. That being the truth, No shame in voting labour.
    After Corbyn, there is nothing BUT shame, in voting Labour. They are the racist party. The party of Jew-baiting for fun. Horrible horrible people. And you support them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    A far cry from the first weeks of the campaign?
    Labour vote returning home, though Tories still pick up 2 Welsh seats, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham, just (plus Brecon and Radnor which was a Tory hold in 2017 but lost in the summer by election to the LDs)
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    I'm pretty sure Jeremy Corbyn has his own look into an MRP (if not the MRP) days before the public does.

    He is once again campaigning exactly in the seats where Yougov's MRP says he should campaign, but days before it's release.

    Same thing happened in 2017.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.

    We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU

    Now I need wine.

    I feel the same way.

    We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.

    And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.

    It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
    Grow up
    I can't vote for someone I could never employ.

    Now I could easily imagine Corbyn doing the garden - I can't think of any job that Boris would be trustworthy enough to do after being fired thrice for dishonesty...
    You must have some expensive plants.
  • Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html

    Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    and some northern seats that have very different results depending on whether you use the yougov or panelbase MRPs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    speedy2 said:

    I'm pretty sure Jeremy Corbyn has his own look into an MRP (if not the MRP) days before the public does.

    He is once again campaigning exactly in the seats where Yougov's MRP says he should campaign, but days before it's release.

    Same thing happened in 2017.

    He was campaigning in Bristol yesterday where no seats are at stake, including the surrounding areas.
  • BluerBlue said:

    speedy2 said:

    eek said:

    BluerBlue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Hypothetical:

    The Tories fall just short of a majority.

    They know they can't get Brexit through.

    FTPA is still in place.

    There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.

    There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.





    Will another GE immediately follow?

    If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.

    That'll show him!
    How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?
    The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.

    Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.
    Yep I think all the sensible money will be on a No Deal if we are in a Hung Parliament with Tories anything above 315 seats.
    And then the diehard Remainers voting for Corbyn will get exactly the opposite of what they want, but also exactly what they deserve.

    No Deal is far less likely if Boris has a majority!
    Indeed. The best bet for those who want to avoid a No Deal Brexit is a reasonable Tory majority. Any of the other realistic outcomes at this point - from a Hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party to a very small Tory majority makes No Deal Brexit more likely.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    Andy_JS said:

    I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?

    Surely most of the data would have been collected before photogate happened?
    No I mean the change of 17 seats from yesterday to today shown on their data
    Thanks for alerting me to that change, I missed it earlier.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.

    Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.

    What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.

    There is honour in staying to fight, too, I think. And I don’t feel very honourable potentially helping the Tories to win. But try as I might to rationalise a vote for Labour, I can’t. It is a vote for Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne, Murray, McCluskey ... And how can I vote for them?

    Good man. You will be counted amongst the honourable people, and you are storing up treasures in Heaven.

    Good night PB
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited December 2019

    Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html

    Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?

    This must have been focus-grouped for the northern, midlands and welsh ex-industrial areas.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019

    Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html

    Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?

    This must be focus-grouped for the northern ex-industrial areas..
    Yep. If this doesn't get the BXP holdouts off their arses, nothing will.
  • Tories are planning to AXE the £14billion foreign aid department if Boris Johnson wins election

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778499/Tories-planning-AXE-14billion-foreign-aid-department-Boris-Johnson-wins-election.html

    Are they trying to lose all the Southern Soft Remainer types?

    This must be focus-grouped for the northern ex-industrial areas..
    I am sure it was and will be popular there...but will also piss of your Guildford Tory. And it seems Tories aren't doing as well in the North (as I predicted) and struggling in the South.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    A far cry from the first weeks of the campaign?
    A far cry from yesterday.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,719

    rcs1000 said:

    Brom said:

    Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.

    One of the problems of the YouGov model is that it is not a Monte Carlo simulation. If there are three seats which are 39/40 lab/con you shouldn't count it as 0/3, but 1/2, because given typical volitility, that is the most likely result.
    Are you sure? I don't think that's right - look at the error bars on their headline forecast.
    There's multiple ways of calculating error bars. It could be a brute force MC, or it could be an empirical calculation based on sample size. You can't tell by looking.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019
    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?
    I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.
  • One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    As long as it's 5 years and not 2 days, I'll count that as a big win! :smile:
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    speedy2 said:

    A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.

    But the direction of travel has been clear.
    THIS....

    The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.

    It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
    As I've commented before I've not bet on this election as I couldn't work out if the result is a 100 seat Tory Majority or a Labour minority. The only thing separating the two options is if the Labour vote crash (ala Scotland) is in this election or a subsequent one.

    I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    speedy2 said:

    A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.

    But the direction of travel has been clear.
    THIS....

    The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.

    It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
    Tactical voting can’t really be built into any of it. Say 5% of each labour and Lib Dem vote for the other, the headline PV doesn’t move an inch, but those thousands, hundreds and thousands of votes could account for 20 or 30 seats, some not even thought of in play.
    Moggs seat for example. It has returned labour MP. Most recent elections the Lib Dem’s done well giving Mogg himself libdem counsellor People built into moggs fine majority have voted other things in the past, not solid base, he is standing on quick sand.
  • tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.

    Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.

    What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.

    There is honour in staying to fight, too, I think. And I don’t feel very honourable potentially helping the Tories to win. But try as I might to rationalise a vote for Labour, I can’t. It is a vote for Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne, Murray, McCluskey ... And how can I vote for them?

    By shutting up and just deciding quietly like the rest of us have?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    As long as it's 5 years and not 2 days, I'll count that as a big win! :smile:
    Not if you want to see a return to centrist politics.

    Ideal result if decent Tory win, but not landslide, Labour smashed (especially in the North that they have taken for granted for so long), and Lib Dem do better than predicted by getting Labourites like SO who just can't vote for their party, and get rid of some of the really big bellends in the Tory Party.

    It isn't going to happen unfortunately.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019
    Biggest Tory voteshare and Tory heartlands now in the East of England not the Southeast https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Byronic mentioned Truro earlier today. New figures:

    Con 46%, Lab 38%, LD 11%.
  • eek said:

    speedy2 said:

    A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.

    But the direction of travel has been clear.
    THIS....

    The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.

    It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
    As I've commented before I've not bet on this election as I couldn't work out if the result is a 100 seat Tory Majority or a Labour minority. The only thing separating the two options is if the Labour vote crash (ala Scotland) is in this election or a subsequent one.

    I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.
    You know how fast the news cycle moves, right? On Thursday the photo will be a relative memory, just as Corbyn's antisemitism meltdown with Neil was gone just a couple of days later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    I'm suprised to see Survation and YouGov diverge so much in the final days
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited December 2019
    It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20

    That's really bad news for the Tories. They should be smashing it there.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    speedy2 said:

    I'm pretty sure Jeremy Corbyn has his own look into an MRP (if not the MRP) days before the public does.

    He is once again campaigning exactly in the seats where Yougov's MRP says he should campaign, but days before it's release.

    Same thing happened in 2017.

    He was campaigning in Bristol yesterday where no seats are at stake, including the surrounding areas.
    He suddently campaigned in north Wales and Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan.

    It doesn't make sence visiting seats so different unless he has a Crystal Ball into the Yougov MRP or another MRP producing almost identical results.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    eek said:

    speedy2 said:

    A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.

    But the direction of travel has been clear.
    THIS....

    The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.

    It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.
    As I've commented before I've not bet on this election as I couldn't work out if the result is a 100 seat Tory Majority or a Labour minority. The only thing separating the two options is if the Labour vote crash (ala Scotland) is in this election or a subsequent one.

    I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.
    You know how fast the news cycle moves, right? On Thursday the photo will be a relative memory, just as Corbyn's antisemitism meltdown with Neil was gone just a couple of days later.
    The news cycle may change but it's the lasting image you want. And ideally you want it 2-3 days before the decision is made to let it sink in...

    That photo couldn't have appeared at a worse time bar 9pm last night - it will need something big to trump it.

    Also a lot of people don't get the news, they just get the bits others are talking about. And if yesterday and today were about the NHS I don't know what Wednesday will be about.

    And thursday is the election and a lot of people won't be talking politics at all then.
  • Nobidexx said:

    I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.

    One of the biggest unknowns in this election is tribal loyalty.

    YouGov's MRP, as you've noted, seems to play this down. There are plenty of constituencies where they're projecting Labour below their traditional floor.

    This is crucial because, if YouGov are wrong on this, then their projections for the "red wall" are unreliable. And without breaching the red wall, the Conservatives don't have a majority.

    I suspect that if Labour have a chance of holding off the Conservatives on Thursday, it will be down to voters in Midlands/Wales seats who take their ballot paper into the booth, hesitate... and then put a cross next to Labour as they have done for every election in the last 40 years. But how can you model a last-minute unknown like that?
    Because it was ever thus?

    And models have worked before
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137
    I'm with Sean Fear. IF the Tories are 9% ahead (that's the key measure), then a majority of only 28 just doesn't seem right. Much more likely 40-50.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    If the Tories could have asked for a polling outcome at this stage in the campaign, it would have been this. They need to convince people that a Corbyn lead Government is a very real possibility.

    I think people are punishing Boris, and think he's awful, but I'm not confident that they will vote for Corbynomics because of such moral objections. If it was a policy wobble it would be more damaging.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
  • Andy_JS said:

    It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0

    With about 14 going in the Tories' favour on the day, if I remember correctly.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    eek said:



    I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.

    He probably didn't want to look at the photo in case it was one of his illegitimate spawn.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    JohnO said:

    I'm with Sean Fear. IF the Tories are 9% ahead (that's the key measure), then a majority of only 28 just doesn't seem right. Much more likely 40-50.

    100% and I think there are plenty of seats within the MOE Yougov doesn’t have them taking. If the final margin is closer to 7% then a 20 seat majority sounds about right.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Andy_JS said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?
    I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.
    Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    BluerBlue said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0

    With about 14 going in the Tories' favour on the day, if I remember correctly.
    Correct. It may have been 15.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20

    That's really bad news for the Tories. They should be smashing it there.
    It isn't, their vote is more efficient, sweeping Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands while holding seats with smaller majorities in the South.

    Labour piling up votes in London but only gaining just 2 Tory seats in the capital
  • HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Ooh tomorrow is polling day.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest Tory voteshare and Tory heartlands now in the East of England not the Southeast https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20

    Almost exactly identical to the average polling regional subsamples with 3 differences.

    Wales which has Labour way ahead instead of a tie, Labour doing a bit better in the Midlands, and the Conservatives doing way worse in London.

    The entire difference in seats is Wales and the interpretation of Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.

    Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.
    IMO, I want to see a return to the centre for all three parties and then people have proper evidence based discussions on how we are going to shape the country for a future where China is the world power and ML / AI means lots of "skilled" jobs don't exist in the same numbers and / or aren't thought of as skilled anymore as the computer does the hard bit.

    Back to the 70s sure isn't the solution and the Tories seem to have run out of any innovative ideas. And the Lib Dems, well I haven't a f##king clue, have they?
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:



    I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.

    He probably didn't want to look at the photo in case it was one of his illegitimate spawn.
    Given the fact we (and possible even he) doesn't know how many children he has got that's not surprising.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    Andy_JS said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's worth remembering that the final MRP last time got the result wrong in 43 constituencies.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0

    With about 14 going in the Tories' favour on the day, if I remember correctly.
    Correct. It may have been 15.
    A quick count gave me a net of 8 going to Labour which weren't expect and a lot going to the SNP and others..
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.
    IMO, I want to see a return to the centre for all three parties and then people have proper evidence based discussions on how we are going to shape the country for a future where China is the world power and ML / AI means lots of "skilled" jobs don't exist in the same numbers and / or aren't thought of as skilled anymore as the computer does the hard bit.

    Back to the 70s sure isn't the solution and the Tories seem to have run out of any innovative ideas. And the Lib Dems, well I haven't a f##king clue, have they?
    There's no one objectively definable centre, though. Thatcher shifted the centre to the right, and Corbyn is shifting it back.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:



    I suspect the photo and Boris's reaction to it is likely to keep the Labour vote on side and ensure they head out to vote unless something changes the news tomorrow and I can't see what can that could help the Tories.

    He probably didn't want to look at the photo in case it was one of his illegitimate spawn.
    It’s easy to imagine how a photo like that is rigged though, so why should a politician comment unless sure? Just a bad journalist wasn’t it? And the labour thug wacking the innocent Tory aid looked like a red card when I first saw it today, so fair do’s for Laura Kunsburg to call it labour thuggery if she saw it like I did too.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    For those saying a hung parliament makes a no deal exit possible, or even likely, can you explain how?

    All I see is Brexit being finished if there's a HP.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.

    Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%
    I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    A non-racist leader who was sound on defence, with a slightly less ambitious version of the Corbyn programme (e.g. some respect for property rights) and a vision of a soft Brexit could walk an election for Labour.
    IMO, I want to see a return to the centre for all three parties and then people have proper evidence based discussions on how we are going to shape the country for a future where China is the world power and ML / AI means lots of "skilled" jobs don't exist in the same numbers and / or aren't thought of as skilled anymore as the computer does the hard bit.

    Back to the 70s sure isn't the solution and the Tories seem to have run out of any innovative ideas. And the Lib Dems, well I haven't a f##king clue, have they?
    No argument from me. I take the view that absent a few key strategic decisions, there’s generally a “right” answer to most problems, given the overall strategy, which can be proven.

    That’s also why I hate having politics in local government. There is a right answer to running local services, within the budget constraints given.


  • There's no one objectively definable centre, though. Thatcher shifted the centre to the right, and Corbyn is shifting it back.

    By centre, I mean what he had in the early 2000s, where all 3 parties were pro-business, pro-capitalism, pro-global markets.

    The difference was really social issues and quite small differences in where to tax and who to benefit.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.

    Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%
    I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.
    Under Corbyn we could well be, or at least close to it, hence those with assets and property owners (still 60% of the country) will keep voting Tory and keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse whilst Corbynism is the alternative
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    One of the big problems on Thursday is going to be how effective the GOTV operations will be working in both darkness and possibly bad weather. That's why the postal votes could be worth much more this election.
    There is usually around a 75-80% return of postal and if that is the case any party that is already well ahead in them has a much bigger advantage this time.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.

    Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%
    I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.
    Under Corbyn we could well be, or at least close to it, hence those with assets and property owners will still vote Tory and keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse whilst Corbynism is the alternative
    Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.
  • SunnyJim said:

    For those saying a hung parliament makes a no deal exit possible, or even likely, can you explain how?

    All I see is Brexit being finished if there's a HP.

    Why I agree with you that a Hung Parliament won’t see a no deal, I think it will eventually lead to Brexit. You get a weak Labour led Gvt which then hits a recession despite remaining in the EU. There’s a few years of pain and the Tories then win with a Brexit majority because the public thinks “sod, we might as well”.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
    McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest Tory voteshare and Tory heartlands now in the East of England not the Southeast https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20

    Mentions there labour 6 better today than yougov yesterday. Doesn’t explain why. If anything that with older polling in it should be other way round
  • egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.
    How many times have we heard that.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour will offer to tax them more while dismissing their cultural patriotism and support for strong defence and law and order and immigration controls.

    Left wing populism gets Labour to 35% not 45%
    I fear people will decide (a bit like Brexit) that turning over the apple cart is worth a go. As one bloke in the Ashcroft focus group from Stoke said, the policies are totally unrealistic, but what's the worst that can happen, we aren't going to become a Communist country.
    Under Corbyn we could well be, or at least close to it, hence those with assets and property owners will still vote Tory and keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse whilst Corbynism is the alternative
    Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.
    If you don’t own much and things haven’t gone your way - Corbyn is a sod you vote - as was Brexit.

    And we won’t know the outcome until we see the actual polls because those people aren’t on YouGov and won’t have been polled by anyone as they usually don’t vote.
  • The big issue Tories have is they haven't managed again to campaign well enough / hard enough to illustrate how bad many of Labour's policies are. Instead again it is focus on what a bad man Jezza is.

    I did say this...

    They needed to keep Labour down as close to 30% as possible and the way to do that was to make sure that people understood all these nice sounding policies aren't as simple and many don't work e.g. rent caps.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Samfr/status/1204525163771023361?s=20

    That's really bad news for the Tories. They should be smashing it there.
    It isn't, their vote is more efficient, sweeping Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands while holding seats with smaller majorities in the South.

    Labour piling up votes in London but only gaining just 2 Tory seats in the capital
    How’s tebbits old seat looking?
  • This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
    Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
    This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    The big issue Tories have is they haven't managed again to campaign well enough / hard enough to illustrate how bad many of Labour's policies are. Instead again it is focus on what a bad man Jezza is.

    I did say this...

    They needed to keep Labour down as close to 30% as possible and the way to do that was to make sure that people understood all these nice sounding policies aren't as simple and many don't work e.g. rent caps.

    No it's like Alien vs Predator but in this case Brexit vs NHS.
    That's what wins it
  • egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.
    How many times have we heard that.
    Labour have been really lucky since 2010. They’ve lost three elections on the trot that we were told were the ones to lose.
  • valleyboy said:

    This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
    Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
    This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.

    One thing that did go in Tories favour is postal votes went out at pretty much peak Tory vote share.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    egg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?
    I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.
    Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?
    Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    valleyboy said:

    This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
    Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
    This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.

    One thing that did go in Tories favour is postal votes went out at pretty much peak Tory vote share.
    Totally agree and turnout higher there
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing is certain, if this is the result....The Labour Party aren't going back to the Southam Observer wing. They will see it as justification of Corbynomic type policies and will be back in 5 years and probably get in.

    SAD.

    Labour projected to be over 100 seats behind the Tories, they won't get in next time unless they move back to the centre but it could give the Tories another decade in power if Labour stick with Corbynism given Boris is still projected to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
    I think things could shift very quickly. Delays to Brexit, global recession and there is still an underlying (and increasing problem) that rise of globalism / machine learning / AI is meaning lots of lower middle class types who bought into the Thatcherite dream of work hard, you will be rewarded and your kids will have a better life will find that isn't the case.

    The solutions are complex, but Labour will promise simple and attractive sounding solutions (but will be expensive and / or often counter-productive).
    Labour’s proactive responses are with the trend, Tories reactionary liassez faire approach swimming against the tide now. A majority circa 30 = very challenging four years for Tories, a period they may never recover from.
    How many times have we heard that.
    Am I boring you by pointing out its one game at a time not the Cummings takes it all? 😀
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
    McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?
    revolutionary Marxist
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    egg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?
    I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.
    Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?
    Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.
    It says everything that half the people on here seem to get polled by the pollsters on a regular occasion. I mean, blimmin' hell, is the world that small?!
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    timmo said:

    valleyboy said:

    This feels so much like 2017, but perhaps a few days too late for Labour.
    Last GE the feeling down here in Preseli was if we had a few more days we would have snatched it, but the PV's already in scraped it for the Tories.
    This time it's been a very slow burner, just too late to make a real difference and Crabb will get back comfortably. I expect a Tory majority nationally.

    One thing that did go in Tories favour is postal votes went out at pretty much peak Tory vote share.
    Totally agree and turnout higher there
    Just means those voters made up their minds to vote labour earlier than the rest of the herd?
  • Totally O/T - Cannonball Record was broken a few days ago, 27hrs to go coast to coast...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPZfpS2uEp4
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think the Tory supporters in here seem to be overly panicking .

    The MRP seems to have gained mythical status but this type of modeling isn’t fool proof . And the fieldwork is over a longish period of time .

    Interestingly the two most notable moments of the campaign in terms of gaffes have come right at the end .

    On one hand Johnson’s weak point, the NHS versus Corbyns apparent questions of leadership and issues surrounding national security caused by Ashworths comments .

    Both are damaging to each party.

    For this reason I think the last few days might have shaken things up a bit . How the pieces fall hard to say at this point .

    The Tories have a massive advantage because the BP standing down in their seats has put up a firewall with very few opportunities for opposition gains .

    It’s very hard to see them not getting a working majority , but I do think that phone clip will play very badly with women voters and might further accentuate the gender gap in the election .

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?
    I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.
    Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?
    Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.
    Nah. If your candidate said put the food bank users down like unwanted dogs you would hear about it.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    The big issue Tories have is they haven't managed again to campaign well enough / hard enough to illustrate how bad many of Labour's policies are. Instead again it is focus on what a bad man Jezza is.

    I did say this...

    They needed to keep Labour down as close to 30% as possible and the way to do that was to make sure that people understood all these nice sounding policies aren't as simple and many don't work e.g. rent caps.

    Alternatevely the Conservatives could simply have given people what they want, instead of telling them no.

    And alternatively Labour could have given people Brexit, instead of telling them no.

    Because neither of them are giving people what they want, Brexit with Money, no one is getting a majority.
  • nico67 said:

    I think the Tory supporters in here seem to be overly panicking .

    Not just Tories, the Betfair market definitely not confident.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Sure...but we know less people own homes etc. If you don't own capital, it is harder to believe in capitalism.

    I said similar a few days ago.

    Historically voters have grown out of Labour as they got in to their 30s, got married, bought their own home, had children, grandchildren etc.

    These are all the drivers of a change of mindset that moves a person on from the naive idealism of youth to the acceptance of reality.

    Without giving those in their 20s and 30s a real stake in their society then there is little to stop them saying 'f*ck it' and metaphorically kicking the table over via a Corbyn type government.

    Housing affordability really needs to be right at the top of the priority list if the Tories do secure a majority.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,212

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
    McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?
    Ronald.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Floater said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
    McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?
    revolutionary Marxist
    Acquited!
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,415
    HYUFD said:

    How is Corbyn going to become PM though when Labour plus SNP are only on 272 combined even if a hung parliament?

    Because if its a hung parliament, then the Conservatives can't be on 339.
    You can't say its hung, then add the seat totals for Labour + SNP from the non-hung result!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
    This is total hysteria.
    The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.

    If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
    Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.

    He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.

    IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
    Vote Corbyn get McDonald

    How very Democratic
    McDonald? Trevor, Jane, Old?
    Ronald.
    Surely he is the current leader of the Conservative Party.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    egg said:

    egg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour now ahead in Canterbury 52% to 40%, only 2 Tory gains out of 32 forecast nationwide in London or the South, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne.

    Only 1 Tory gain out of 32 comes in a seat that voted Remain, Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland.

    It says they hold Hastings? Is this based on maths not factoring candidate errors?
    I think the evidence is that most voters in most seats don't have a clue who the local candidates are, they just vote for the party.
    Even if candidate achieves fame for saying people who use food banks want putting down? Can’t pay disabled same wage they ain’t worth it. People should use common sense and get out of burning buildings not listen to police and fire brigade?
    Time and time again polls show the vast majority of people are unaware of most stuff that goes on in a campaign, and as we've seen that's with relatively politically engaged people answering the polls! People who are motivated to care are a ridiculously small fraction of the population, In fact you are right now probably talking to a good fraction of them. Hell i'm pretty sure the majority of my fellow constituents couldn't name our MP, some probably couldn't name the party.
    Nah. If your candidate said put the food bank users down like unwanted dogs you would hear about it.
    I would love to see constituency phone polls with questions like these, pretty confident they would show almost no one bringing it up.
  • Have we ever had a case where one party is 9-10% ahead of their closest rival and still a huge doubt of possibility of a majority?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    I can only see a Conservative majority, as to the number, I haven't got a clue! Good night.
  • The PVs are interesting. Has anyone seen it YouGov makes any assumptions, or even asks people how they voted? I haven’t found a proper analysis of methodology.
This discussion has been closed.