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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bozo is beginning to sound unhinged , or more than he was .
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    The inbuilt irony of the headline weakens it a bit, there. A hard Brexit or no-deal would clearly not be the greatest crisis since the war, for the Mail.
  • RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
  • This election is literally going to come down to the wire

    You could be right.

  • BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.

    Do you have no self-awareness?

    It's your beloved Labour party that is being investigated by the Equalities & Human Rights commission for alleged racism,the only other party that's managed that is the BNP.

    .
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    HYUFD said:

    IDS still narrowly ahead 47% to 45% in Chingford and Woodford Green, turnout will be crucial so I will be heading down after morning telling in Epping to help GOTV for IDS

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    I feel so very sorry for you. Sounds awful.

    I’ll be drinking my free Brewdog pint.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    What would really blow this election apart would be for Corbyn and Swinson to publicly ask that, for a dozen or so selected seats each, where the other party is the closest challanger, their voters support that challenger rather than vote for their own party.

    That would likely wipe the majority away.

    In fact, from Corbyn's perspective he should do that regardless of any reciprocity from the LDs. If the LDs can grab another dozen seats from the Tories because Labour are tacitly telling their supporters only the LDs can win there, that could make all the difference.

    Not going to happen though is it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    You yourself were suggesting this poll means a hung parliament. Are you suggesting your own comments were hysterical?

    *innocent face*
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1204529762372407297

    Imagine the SDLP making all the difference

    Dreadful night for the DUP, and unionists.
    glw said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Wasn't this the bloke who didn't want his son's death politicised?
    Somehow CHB doesn't give a shit about such things if they help the Marxist cause...
    Did he really not want the death politicised? Or did he not want it used to support a specific political view?
    Well yes, it sounded to me more like he was annoyed that Boris came out against rehabilitation and in favour of longer imprisonment.

    Besides that I simply do not accept the argument that politics should not talk about such things because it disrepects the dead. It's precisely because people have been killed that politicians should talk about the issue. This whole "this is not the time" nonsense is exactly the crap that gun owners come out with everytime there is a mass shooting in the US, and I note that there has just been another mass shooting in the US. Thoughts and prayers, and don't ask awkward questions, will get the US and the UK nowhere when it comes to dealing with mass shootings, terrorism, knife crime and all the other ills we face.
    I do agree, although such talk in the immediacy will need to tread a fine line, but the basic point that tragic events should not prevent discussion of an issue or even suggestion of particular policies I think is mostly reasonable. It wasn't as though it was out of keeping with his policies up to that point.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    IanB2 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.

    Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.
    Btw IOW update - the Greens are running a polling day GOTV, at least in the main towns. I can’t see them getting even to second but at least they are trying.
    I suspect the Greens will easily get 2nd; Vix Lowthion is well known, popular and, most importantly, regarded as normal rather than the usual Green nutter. And she has spent years building her support. But the Cons will hold easily.
  • speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Shame on you
    You chose Boris. You made it a 2-way battle. You made it a culture war.
    Nope. I didn’t choose Boris and I dislike him.

    But there is a certain minimum threshold. A significant proportion of a minority group in this country is thinking of leaving if Corbyn wins.

    That is shameful for the country that it has even got to the stage that they are considering it.

    And shame on anyone who votes for an anti-Semitic party.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073

    There are some odd shifts compared with MRPv1: look at Kensington and at Caithness, Sutherland & Easterross:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109/photo/1

    Big shift in Edinburgh West, as well, which was a toss up last time. Doesn't tally with what I am hearing, but...
    But the margin of error for these individual seat projections is huge. By the same token there are going to be huge random shifts since the first MRP.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.

    Do you have no self-awareness?

    It's your beloved Labour party that is being investigated by the Equalities & Human Rights commission for alleged racism,the only other party that's managed that is the BNP.

    .
    My beloved Labour party?
    I’m a Lib Dem “registered supporter”.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,014

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    It wants to get the vote out

    Which is better than complacency.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Putney now expected to be a Labour gain by 40% to 37%.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    Since 2017 our PB Tory friends have spelled out the faults that led to defeat in 2017. A leader lacking in empathy repeating the same trite slogan over and over. A manifesto that offered no vision or hope for a better future. A campaign based on the assumption that fear of their opponent was sufficient reason to vote Tory. A leader who chose to hide from scrutiny and challenge for fear of losing what appeared to be a guaranteed win.

    Apart from shelving proposals to deal with the crisis in social care, Bozo appears to be Mrs M reincarnate...
  • rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    What would really blow this election apart would be for Corbyn and Swinson to publicly ask that, for a dozen or so selected seats each, where the other party is the closest challanger, their voters support that challenger rather than vote for their own party.

    That would likely wipe the majority away.

    In fact, from Corbyn's perspective he should do that regardless of any reciprocity from the LDs. If the LDs can grab another dozen seats from the Tories because Labour are tacitly telling their supporters only the LDs can win there, that could make all the difference.

    Not going to happen though is it?

    Swinson has said that she can't support Corbyn as a potential PM.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Shame on you
    You chose Boris. You made it a 2-way battle. You made it a culture war.
    Nope. I didn’t choose Boris and I dislike him.

    But there is a certain minimum threshold. A significant proportion of a minority group in this country is thinking of leaving if Corbyn wins.

    That is shameful for the country that it has even got to the stage that they are considering it.

    And shame on anyone who votes for an anti-Semitic party.
    I am Jewish. I can safely vote for my non-Corbynista local Remainer Labour MP with good conscience.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019

    speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?
    No, the Tories picking up where they need to in the North and Midlands.

    32 Tory gains projected, only 2 Labour, both in London, Chipping Barnet and Putney.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523046201167872?s=20


  • Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    A result which really should worry anyone wanting to avoid a No Deal Brexit. Almost all of the awkward squad of Pro-EU Tories will be gone, the ERG will be largely intact if not enlarged and the DUP will let a No Deal happen rather than see Corbyn in No 10. Nor will there be a partisan speaker ready to try and frustrate a legitimately elected Government. I think a result similar to 2017 is a real killer for those wanting to avoid No Deal on 31st January
  • Has the money started leaving the country yet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    You misread, it was 8.0. rcs1000 is a stickler for precision.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    Is it just me or is the interactive map on the YouGov website showing the old results from two weeks ago?

    Not for me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    alb1on said:

    IanB2 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.

    Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.
    Btw IOW update - the Greens are running a polling day GOTV, at least in the main towns. I can’t see them getting even to second but at least they are trying.
    I suspect the Greens will easily get 2nd; Vix Lowthion is well known, popular and, most importantly, regarded as normal rather than the usual Green nutter. And she has spent years building her support. But the Cons will hold easily.
    I hope so. But if you ask me to bet, I would go for third place.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,012
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    So. When's the next poll out? :D

    48 hours to save The NHS Polling Industry!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Passions running high tonight...
  • Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    Right night all - have fun!

    Going to try to get a couple of early nights - Thursday could be a very long one! :wink:
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696



    Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    A result which really should worry anyone wanting to avoid a No Deal Brexit. Almost all of the awkward squad of Pro-EU Tories will be gone, the ERG will be largely intact if not enlarged and the DUP will let a No Deal happen rather than see Corbyn in No 10. Nor will there be a partisan speaker ready to try and frustrate a legitimately elected Government. I think a result similar to 2017 is a real killer for those wanting to avoid No Deal on 31st January
    No Deal is the fastest route to Euro and Schengen so... 🤷‍♂️
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Andy_JS said:

    9% ahead for a majority of just 28 would be the worst conversion rate at any general election I know of.

    It's also bang on what the swingometer says.
    Basically a Lead of 7% is needed for a bare majority of 2.

    There are not that many Labour marginals compared with Conservative ones, that's why Corbyn got so increadibly close to being PM last time.
  • IanB2 said:

    Since 2017 our PB Tory friends have spelled out the faults that led to defeat in 2017. A leader lacking in empathy repeating the same trite slogan over and over. A manifesto that offered no vision or hope for a better future. A campaign based on the assumption that fear of their opponent was sufficient reason to vote Tory. A leader who chose to hide from scrutiny and challenge for fear of losing what appeared to be a guaranteed win.

    Apart from shelving proposals to deal with the crisis in social care, Bozo appears to be Mrs M reincarnate...

    and they can't blame Nick Timothy this time.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.
    Loyalists who don't give a fuck about us Jews or the racists that have infected your party. You will vote for Corbyn regardless of what he says or does to us.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited December 2019
    Nah, it was always CCHQ's hope/expectation a poll might come out near the end showing a dwindling majority, in order to motivate voters. They've got it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?

    Majority of less than 30.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    kle4 said:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1204529762372407297

    Imagine the SDLP making all the difference

    Dreadful night for the DUP, and unionists.
    glw said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Wasn't this the bloke who didn't want his son's death politicised?
    Somehow CHB doesn't give a shit about such things if they help the Marxist cause...
    Did he really not want the death politicised? Or did he not want it used to support a specific political view?
    Well yes, it sounded to me more like he was annoyed that Boris came out against rehabilitation and in favour of longer imprisonment.

    Besides that I simply do not accept the argument that politics should not talk about such things because it disrepects the dead. It's precisely because people have been killed that politicians should talk about the issue. This whole "this is not the time" nonsense is exactly the crap that gun owners come out with everytime there is a mass shooting in the US, and I note that there has just been another mass shooting in the US. Thoughts and prayers, and don't ask awkward questions, will get the US and the UK nowhere when it comes to dealing with mass shootings, terrorism, knife crime and all the other ills we face.
    I do agree, although such talk in the immediacy will need to tread a fine line, but the basic point that tragic events should not prevent discussion of an issue or even suggestion of particular policies I think is mostly reasonable. It wasn't as though it was out of keeping with his policies up to that point.
    You can get decent odds on SF beating DUP. As I was saying this afternoon, worth a look....
  • The weirdest thing is Labour doing so relatively well in Scotland. Is this the 2017 Kensington effect again?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    One more thing I will say about the MRP is that in their list of projected Tory gains the one with the largest swing of the lot is North Norfolk. So there.

    My way of coping with a potential carbon copy of the hopeless 2017 Parliament is simply to watch what happens in North Norfolk and ignore the other 649 seats altogether. If North Norfolk changes hands then I shall feel vindicated.

    Of course, if it's worse than that and we end up with Corbyn in charge then the next thing I shall do is move my life savings into my Canadian dollar bank account before exchange controls are implemented and the pound crashes to parity with the Zambian kwacha.
    Half our cash is in the Bank of England 😱
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited December 2019
    Public Service Announcement - YouGov put out the wrong file of the detailed data, so those looking at my spreadsheets will need to refresh as I have just fixed them with the correct data.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    HYUFD said:

    IDS still narrowly ahead 47% to 45% in Chingford and Woodford Green, turnout will be crucial so I will be heading down after morning telling in Epping to help GOTV for IDS

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    Save your legs, and breath. The Labour girl there is a nice lady and a fresh face. IDS is yesterday’s man.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    Gabs3 said:

    tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.
    Loyalists who don't give a fuck about us Jews or the racists that have infected your party. You will vote for Corbyn regardless of what he says or does to us.
    Give over. Tory cultists are just as bad as Labour cultists.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Andy_JS said:

    Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?

    Majority of less than 30.
    Any majority and he will be fine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    What would really blow this election apart would be for Corbyn and Swinson to publicly ask that, for a dozen or so selected seats each, where the other party is the closest challanger, their voters support that challenger rather than vote for their own party.

    That would likely wipe the majority away.

    In fact, from Corbyn's perspective he should do that regardless of any reciprocity from the LDs. If the LDs can grab another dozen seats from the Tories because Labour are tacitly telling their supporters only the LDs can win there, that could make all the difference.

    Not going to happen though is it?

    Swinson has said that she can't support Corbyn as a potential PM.
    She'll sing a different tune if that's the price of Brexit being stopped, particularly if her party is humbled. Even though the Tories would be largest party Corbyn would be triumphant if there is a hung parliament, they'd find a way.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:

    "Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.

    And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.

    Events, dear boy..."

    IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.

    Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    Bozo doesn’t really understand just how much public services mean in those Labour Leave areas . The NHS story will hurt Johnson , equally though Ashworth idiocy will hurt Labour .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682

    Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?

    The one in Uxbridge.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?
    No, there are plenty of marginals in both categories, Leave and Remain seats.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,820
    edited December 2019
    Floater said:

    OllyT said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Nobody seriously believes Corbyn will get an overall majority so it's quite safe to vote tactically to try to get a hung parliament. The one thing the Ads, Labour and SNP can agree on is a second referendum
    No it really is not - you cant give the anti semites and marxists legitimacy - will will be able to get rid of them once in.

    And how comes Brexit was really bad because it might end the Union become - its ok to gift the SNP another referendum - which might break up Union?

    Either it matters or it does not
    the abuse of anyone who might vote Labour is missing the point. A lot of people do not want a Johnson/Raab/Patel majority government for 5 years so will consider voting in the best way they consider that they can prevent that in the certain knowledge that Corbyn will not get an overall majority either. There are still lots of more moderate Labour MPs who would block Corbyn's wilder ideas when push came to shove.
  • RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    Er... you are the one who has been saying based on these polls it will be a hung Parliament. Show some consistency man!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    I'm with you. I watched that video of Boris in Golders Green. I saw the real pain and fear.

    And I am wretchedly ashamed of my fellow Britons, supporting or enabling this c*nt Corbyn.

    If he becomes prime minister, now horribly possible, it would be the most distressing political day of my life: because of the abject shame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it just me or is the interactive map on the YouGov website showing the old results from two weeks ago?

    Not for me.
    The new map is out as below

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825

    BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Amazingly, it’s not in any way shape or form the fault of Conservatives.

    If you alienate and abuse people, rip up all constitutional norms and offer nothing other than a retreat to irrelevance for the country, you are going to struggle to get those people to vote for you. Just a thought you might want to chew on.
    The most interesting poll of the GE is this one. It is a truism that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them, and this government is less popular than any of the party leaders.

    https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1202969367887196165?s=19
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Interesting change. LDs were not out of it in the last MRP so if the fear was the Tories winning it back its surprising they could not squeeze Labour, instead their prospective supporters fled back to Labour.

    Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.

    Well yes, it is not magically accurate or anything. Does it feel right? Not really, the polls have been steady enough, but with so many close calls there's such a wide range anything from 315-395 looks possible on very similar final votes.
    Re: Kensington you’ve never met Sam have you?
    I have not. Can he be that bad?
    He’s irritated me for about the last 25 years
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
    We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?

    And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...

    No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268

    An orgy of PB Tory bedwetting on here.

    Nanny!

    I am serene....

    In 48 hours, we will be close to the first declarations.

    I also wonder how the MRP copes with so many postal votes having been cast in the period when the Tory lead was higher? Anybody?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Wales disappointing for the blues versus recent Wales-wide poll. They must have hopes there for it to be better than forecast.

    Only Wales and Scotland can save the tories now.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?
    No, the Tories picking up where they need to in the North and Midlands.

    32 Tory gains projected, only 2 Labour, both in London, Chipping Barnet and Putney.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523046201167872?s=20
    Yougov MRP has found Labour polling about 6% higher in Wales than in their own pollitical barometer over the same time period.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    It wants to get the vote out

    Which is better than complacency.

    Indeed - the Tories have, contrary to some reports, not displayed all that much hubris this time, momentary excitement at some polls aside, and as in the Boris Actually video the message has been that they are not taking a win for granted, that it is not done, do not think that it is.

    Maybe they get a 60+ majority and all will be well for them, there's enough tight seats that could be the case even on the MRP numbers, but they clearly see the benefit in spooking supporters into turning out.
  • In 48 hours, Sir John will have given us a proper poll, and all this will be behind us...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    speedy2 said:

    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.

    So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?
    No, the Tories picking up where they need to in the North and Midlands.

    32 Tory gains projected, only 2 Labour, both in London, Chipping Barnet and Putney.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523046201167872?s=20
    Yougov MRP has found Labour polling about 6% higher in Wales than in their own pollitical barometer over the same time period.
    Oops. :D
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,014
    Gabs3 said:

    tyson said:

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

    But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.
    Loyalists who don't give a fuck about us Jews or the racists that have infected your party. You will vote for Corbyn regardless of what he says or does to us.
    I'm a zionist. I've lived in Israel. And I've stuck with the Labour Party because I still believe in it's bigger message...which is a party that is anti racist
  • RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    Er... you are the one who has been saying based on these polls it will be a hung Parliament. Show some consistency man!
    I think we're headed for a Hung Parliament. The Daily Mail seems to think we're already there. I'm happy with that.
  • An orgy of PB Tory bedwetting on here.

    Nanny!

    I am serene....

    In 48 hours, we will be close to the first declarations.

    I also wonder how the MRP copes with so many postal votes having been cast in the period when the Tory lead was higher? Anybody?
    That is one reason why I don't think a hung parliament is nailed on yet.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    Andy_JS said:

    Putney now expected to be a Labour gain by 40% to 37%.

    There's a clear difference between the recent constituency polls and the MRP
    Kensington-Tories 10% ahead or 2% behind
    Wrexham- Tories 15% ahead or 1% ahead
    Putney- Tories 3% ahead or 3% behind
    Cities + Westminster- Tories 18% ahead or 6% ahead
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    An orgy of PB Tory bedwetting on here.

    Nanny!

    I am serene....

    In 48 hours, we will be close to the first declarations.

    I also wonder how the MRP copes with so many postal votes having been cast in the period when the Tory lead was higher? Anybody?
    You are serene because your reporting from the stump doesn’t match the melt being reported.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Jonathan said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Good lets get the Tories out and a 2nd Referendum
    You were against a second vote a few minutes ago.
    Minutes?

    A price worth paying to keep the most right wing Govt in my lifetime out
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,967
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
    According to Pratchett, it's the frozen corpses of double-glazing salesmen.

    Pause.

    I'm not helping, am I? Go away, viewcode... :(
    No, come back viewcode!!
    Thank you. I return, trailing clouds of glory. Or, more accurately, trailing Mini Cheddar crumbs: it's f*****g freezing and I've switched the heating on and am under the covers until I warm up. It is a bad place for crisps, but what the hey... :)



  • Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.

    A result which really should worry anyone wanting to avoid a No Deal Brexit. Almost all of the awkward squad of Pro-EU Tories will be gone, the ERG will be largely intact if not enlarged and the DUP will let a No Deal happen rather than see Corbyn in No 10. Nor will there be a partisan speaker ready to try and frustrate a legitimately elected Government. I think a result similar to 2017 is a real killer for those wanting to avoid No Deal on 31st January
    No Deal is the fastest route to Euro and Schengen so... 🤷‍♂️
    LOL In your dreams. Once we are out that will be it for a very long time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    How many SLAB seats is that? 4? Obviously a far cry from the glory days, but last couple of GEs they've outperformed the miserable expectations, if it is bourne out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    South Cambs: as first forecast by @rcs1000 :smile:
  • speedy2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    9% ahead for a majority of just 28 would be the worst conversion rate at any general election I know of.

    It's also bang on what the swingometer says.
    Basically a Lead of 7% is needed for a bare majority of 2.

    There are not that many Labour marginals compared with Conservative ones, that's why Corbyn got so increadibly close to being PM last time.
    Close as in 55 seats behind?
  • I’ve long thought Don Valley should be one of the Conservatives’ easier gains. Glad to see YouGov agrees.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Byronic said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    I'm with you. I watched that video of Boris in Golders Green. I saw the real pain and fear.

    And I am wretchedly ashamed of my fellow Britons, supporting or enabling this c*nt Corbyn.

    If he becomes prime minister, now horribly possible, it would be the most distressing political day of my life: because of the abject shame.
    My brother has already put a bid in on a house in Israel. If Corbyn wins, I don't see a future for myself here. I can't live among people willing to put him in power. Especially when it's the people of the left that are supposed to be our allies. I suddenly don't feel safe in my own country any more. I always thought that Britain was different. No doubt this is how every group of persecuted Jews felt in the countries they had made a life in before the tide turned. All those people you thought would stand up for you when the time came just melt away. It is so upsetting.
  • BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Amazingly, it’s not in any way shape or form the fault of Conservatives.

    If you alienate and abuse people, rip up all constitutional norms and offer nothing other than a retreat to irrelevance for the country, you are going to struggle to get those people to vote for you. Just a thought you might want to chew on.
    'rip up constitutional norms'

    Your getting confused with Bercow.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    edited December 2019

    An orgy of PB Tory bedwetting on here.

    Nanny!

    I am serene....

    I'm Zen! Like Jezza tending his Cabbage patch, :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    Er... you are the one who has been saying based on these polls it will be a hung Parliament. Show some consistency man!
    I think we're headed for a Hung Parliament. The Daily Mail seems to think we're already there. I'm happy with that.
    You used exactly the same phrase as they did:

    "This election is literally going to come down to the wire"

    :D
  • IanB2 said:

    alb1on said:

    IanB2 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.

    Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.
    Btw IOW update - the Greens are running a polling day GOTV, at least in the main towns. I can’t see them getting even to second but at least they are trying.
    I suspect the Greens will easily get 2nd; Vix Lowthion is well known, popular and, most importantly, regarded as normal rather than the usual Green nutter. And she has spent years building her support. But the Cons will hold easily.
    I hope so. But if you ask me to bet, I would go for third place.
    https://votevix.org/
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
    Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.
    Er... you are the one who has been saying based on these polls it will be a hung Parliament. Show some consistency man!
    I think we're headed for a Hung Parliament. The Daily Mail seems to think we're already there. I'm happy with that.
    You used exactly the same phrase as they did:

    "This election is literally going to come down to the wire"

    :D
    Christ I agree with the Daily Mail
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    nunu2 said:

    Wales disappointing for the blues versus recent Wales-wide poll. They must have hopes there for it to be better than forecast.

    Only Wales and Scotland can save the tories now.
    A better bet than the red wall crumbling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    BluerBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...

    Er, how much are you revising your prediction of a majority of around 80?
    I have now revised my forecast.

    I now think Conservative majority of 90.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Byronic said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
    I am Jewish.
    Then watch this. To the end. It is 7 and a half minutes long, so it's long. But it's worth it. And then tell me you're still voting Corbyn.

    https://youtu.be/ITCX2mDiFzE
    Half-Jewish here. Left wing Jews get to choose: on the one hand we have Corbyn, who goes to passover with us, and has a long parliamentary track record of helping Jews and fighting antisemitism. On the other hand there's the right wing press who flit between shamelessly using antisemitic tropes when it suits them and gleefully exploiting our own ethnicity to oppose our political interests. Easy choice, really.

    In the US, accusations of antisemitism have been used against people criticising ICE's detention centres. Jews have felt the need to hold signs saying "not in my name" when protesting against those centres. Don't kid yourself that using antisemitism as a political football is for our benefit.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    It looks like Sturgeon and Corbyn will be moving into No 10

    But at 9pm on Thur you will get the most important projection - the Ave It GE2019 forecast!
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017

    Question. Since labour manifesto was published are you sure the Tory’s, Boris and Javid, have artfully, persuasively taken labour’s plans apart and convinced the unconvinced labour’s plans turn us into Venezuela?

    They haven’t, for There are 350M reasons boris and Cummings don’t have the fiscal credibility to batter labour’s manifesto.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Andy_JS said:

    What would really blow this election apart would be for Corbyn and Swinson to publicly ask that, for a dozen or so selected seats each, where the other party is the closest challanger, their voters support that challenger rather than vote for their own party.

    That would likely wipe the majority away.

    In fact, from Corbyn's perspective he should do that regardless of any reciprocity from the LDs. If the LDs can grab another dozen seats from the Tories because Labour are tacitly telling their supporters only the LDs can win there, that could make all the difference.

    Not going to happen though is it?

    Swinson has said that she can't support Corbyn as a potential PM.

    You still get a Corbynist administration with someone else as PM. What's the real difference ?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Andy_JS said:

    Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?

    Majority of less than 30.
    Any majority and he will be fine.
    Well Corbyn will not go anywhere if that is the result.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    He's not the messiah he's a very naughty boy...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 38,072
    Alistair said:

    Betfair let me have a whole three pounds five pence on the Tories in Lanark

    saved you money Alistair
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Gabs3 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
    It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.

    My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".

    What did we do to deserve this?
    It’s not “nobody taking your side”

    There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.

    Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    Ave_it said:

    It looks like Sturgeon and Corbyn will be moving into No 10

    But at 9pm on Thur you will get the most important projection - the Ave It GE2019 forecast!

    SNP Majority government? :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,967
    Byronic said:

    Yes, you are bloody clueless.

    It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.

    You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.

    So. How was Antarctica?

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:


    Only Wales and Scotland can save the tories now.

    I wonder whether weather in Wales and Scotland could even be important in that - someone mentioned a particularly blustery/rainy day in Wales further up, but less so in the North.
  • I've stepped away from pb.com a bit over the last few days, so I haven't been following the blow-by-blow detail of the news as much. The news that I have noticed is:

    1. Johnson trying to avoid addressing the photo of the boy asleep on the hospital floor.

    2. The shadow Health secretary sold out by a "mate" for speaking the truth about how much the public despise Corbyn.

    3. Everyone and his dog coming out to say that Johnson is deluded and lying about the requirement for trade checks at the GB/NI border.

    It's an electoral contest between the most detested and the least liked. I still reckon that Johnson has enough of the old bonhomie to see him home, maybe even win a landslide, but it might come down to what outrageous story is freshest in voter's minds as they walk to the polling station.

    Has anyone ordered the MRP results to identify the likely tipping point seat?
This discussion has been closed.