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Hence we South Essex Tories are going to Chingford on ThursdayCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/horse_staple/status/1203795208397295617
Huh, I guess I do have prediction powers0 -
Were the LibDems on 40 on the spreads at the start of this campaign??? Anybody still making a killing?1
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What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
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The election is down to 3,000 voters in 14 seats.2
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They probably have it to infinite precision, but round on the excel sheet?FrancisUrquhart said:
There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.RobD said:
I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.0 -
It seems that people do indeed choose to forget history.
Labour's economic plans aren't even a hypothetical risk, we've done it before and we know how it will end.
And then we will be back with decades of austerity to try and repair the public finances.
And the left will be frothing at the mouth at the injustice.
And then we will do it all again in 40 years time.
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Interesting ...
https://twitter.com/jamesdmorris/status/12045399948592865300 -
One of the biggest unknowns in this election is tribal loyalty.Nobidexx said:I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.
YouGov's MRP, as you've noted, seems to play this down. There are plenty of constituencies where they're projecting Labour below their traditional floor.
This is crucial because, if YouGov are wrong on this, then their projections for the "red wall" are unreliable. And without breaching the red wall, the Conservatives don't have a majority.
I suspect that if Labour have a chance of holding off the Conservatives on Thursday, it will be down to voters in Midlands/Wales seats who take their ballot paper into the booth, hesitate... and then put a cross next to Labour as they have done for every election in the last 40 years. But how can you model a last-minute unknown like that?1 -
Much better for all the unionist parties than I'd have predicted at the start of the campaign, but with vast differences possible. Betting on Scottish seats would be a very risky proposition.HYUFD said:2 -
Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.0
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It's the Tories hope for a majority is doomed and I (Rochdale Pioneer) told you so. And with another Hung Parliament little has changed.isam said:
I can’t tell if that is an early “Conservatives are doomed & I told you so” or a “nothing has changed”RochdalePioneers said:Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:
"Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.
And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.
Events, dear boy..."
IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.
Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.
Hedge your bets!
I also think he's right - what can Boris do tomorrow that removes the story of NHS failure being the last thing story people think about as they head in to vote.0 -
It doesn't matter. The Corbyn wing is in its ascendancy. The only thing that has held back their Anti-Semitism is fear of electoral consequences. If useful idiots continue to vote for them regardless and show there is no consequence to it they will do more. And it will spread and spread and spread. I don't think I want to be British any more.WhisperingOracle said:
It won't be, because his party is full of a large number of people who aren't.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
My wife who hasn't voted Labour in three elections, and is Jewish, also having not been a Labour member for many years, says she's voting for Corbyn.0 -
Right, but I can't see anywhere where they actually tell you who nudges it in their sims. Unless whoever is listed first on the interactive chart is?RobD said:
They probably have it to infinite precision, but round on the excel sheet?FrancisUrquhart said:
There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.RobD said:
I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.
Edit - I don't think it is, I think it is just alphabetical when tied.0 -
I'm not certain, but are they doing a Monte Carlo job to get the headline seat totals (with error bars), rather than just taking the leader in each seat irrespective of the margin?FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
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That has got to be the NHS video right?SouthamObserver said:Interesting ...
https://twitter.com/jamesdmorris/status/1204539994859286530
That's an astonishing fall in one day.0 -
Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.egg said:
MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.kle4 said:0 -
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.0 -
Or perhaps the Tories on the ground just lie?kle4 said:
Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.egg said:
MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.kle4 said:0 -
It seems to be following the trend, rather than being an unusual fall.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That has got to be the NHS video right?SouthamObserver said:Interesting ...
https://twitter.com/jamesdmorris/status/1204539994859286530
That's an astonishing fall in one day.0 -
There is honour in staying to fight, too, I think. And I don’t feel very honourable potentially helping the Tories to win. But try as I might to rationalise a vote for Labour, I can’t. It is a vote for Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne, Murray, McCluskey ... And how can I vote for them?Casino_Royale said:
What a shame it is that those same friends, and several regular posters on here, don't share your honour.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
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Guess who is going to be spending the next few hours clicking a hundred hexagons.FrancisUrquhart said:
Right, but I can't see anywhere where they actually tell you who nudges it in their sims. Unless whoever is listed first on the interactive chart is?RobD said:
They probably have it to infinite precision, but round on the excel sheet?FrancisUrquhart said:
There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.RobD said:
I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.
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Sheffield Hallam:
LD 36%
Lab 32%
Con 23%0 -
So this low Labour floor thing, does that imply the Labour vote is understated?0
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I find the talk of him being inhuman and not showing humanity to be rather grim language. He's not a good man, I'm not voting for his party, but 'inhuman', really?CorrectHorseBattery said:
That has got to be the NHS video right?SouthamObserver said:Interesting ...
https://twitter.com/jamesdmorris/status/1204539994859286530
That's an astonishing fall in one day.0 -
Yep. Me too.Byronic said:
No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
Part of it is the donkeys coming home but Neil and the Phone cut through. The first one mattered far more, but Boris has been found guilty in the court of public opinion of doing an NHS.
Stupid mistakes.0 -
Tomorrow is an unusually important day for both campaigns.
It's not settled yet.0 -
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.2 -
It follows what I've found around here in my safe seat. People really don't like him, unlike May who I think they actually felt sorry for.kle4 said:
I find the talk of him being inhuman and not showing humanity to be rather grim language. He's not a good man, I'm not voting for his party, but 'inhuman', really?CorrectHorseBattery said:
That has got to be the NHS video right?SouthamObserver said:Interesting ...
https://twitter.com/jamesdmorris/status/1204539994859286530
That's an astonishing fall in one day.0 -
The only person I'd risk money on is Ian Murray, and I wouldn't make much.kle4 said:
Much better for all the unionist parties than I'd have predicted at the start of the campaign, but with vast differences possible. Betting on Scottish seats would be a very risky proposition.HYUFD said:
Huge number of marginals here, and anything could happen.0 -
Fair point.Casino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Tory MPs, ex Tory ministers and even someone in Boris’s *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.1 -
Given the unemployable thrice fired liar in the other corner - it's a matter of picking the least worst option.Casino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
At least Sturgeon will have some say in the policies of a Labour Government - Boris with just a small majority will have to give the ERG everything they want..
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TitterAnabobazina said:0 -
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That is correct.kle4 said:
That can be a benefit, and better than a landslide, but occasionally we do need parliaments to do things, and now that coalitions and even formal agreements are a bridge too far for parties, it won't be fun to have a hung parliament, if necessary for certain outcomes.Anabobazina said:
Hung parliaments are great. They stop both the Labour Party (barmy) and the Tory Party (bonkers) doing anything. More please!BluerBlue said:
2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!speedy2 said:
That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
Like in the 1970's the country is in a mood for major reforms, but it has to decide which ones to choose instead of cancelling out each proposal.
The public are in favour of mass nationalizations and a big public sector, at the same time they don't like strange foreigners controlling their affairs.
Neither party is offering both.
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I think it implausible to suggest canvassers and activists on one side tell the truth and the ones on the other side do not, ascribing virtue to one political tribe. They're all political activists, more in common with each other than normal people, they wil likely spin and talk a good game, but that's not the same as outright lying which is less common in politics than we think.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Or perhaps the Tories on the ground just lie?kle4 said:
Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.egg said:
MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.kle4 said:
More likely still is they are all mostly honest about what they see and hear, but they're crap at getting to the real picture.0 -
The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.0
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Uber the FTPA, governments have lasted an average of three years, against 4.1 in the previous 21 years.kjohnw1 said:
If Boris does get his majority scrapping the FTPA needs to be one of his first dutiesSunil_Prasannan said:
In 2017 it was April to June.KentRising said:0 -
It might be more fundemental.Casino_Royale said:
Yep. Me too.Byronic said:
No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
Part of it is the donkeys coming home but Neil and the Phone cut through. The first one mattered far more, but Boris has been found guilty in the court of public opinion of doing an NHS.
Stupid mistakes.
Get brexit done. Look at it not as a battle cry, but a question. To which than answer can be no.0 -
1
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I don't like him either, or Corbyn, but describing either as being inhuman is surely part of that language in politics we are supposed to be avoiding.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It follows what I've found around here in my safe seat. People really don't like him, unlike May who I think they actually felt sorry for.kle4 said:
I find the talk of him being inhuman and not showing humanity to be rather grim language. He's not a good man, I'm not voting for his party, but 'inhuman', really?CorrectHorseBattery said:
That has got to be the NHS video right?SouthamObserver said:Interesting ...
https://twitter.com/jamesdmorris/status/1204539994859286530
That's an astonishing fall in one day.
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I predict tories over 360 seats . Postals are already in , fear of Corbyn is very real out there . But yesterday’s cock up could cost a few of those, the 11million views probably Corbynistas resharing-1
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Some seats have shifted to the Tories since the previous MRP.
For example Bradford South was Lab 42%, Con 37%.
Now it's Lab 42%, Con 41%.0 -
As I understand it, they aren't big believers in tactical voting, and model instead how different demographic segments will vote.Nobidexx said:I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.
The reverse seems to be true for the tories: despite their static vote share they're actually performing better or staying stable in extremely safe labour seats, including heavily remain ones (7->12% in Manchester Gorton, 13->16% in Sheffield Central, 9.7->14% in Liverpool Riverside), while generally staying static or only picking up a very modest increase in a lot of labour leave targets (Wrexham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bolsover...), sometimes even going backwards a little bit. This seems to contradict the constituency polls (including the recent Wrexham one) that showed large leads, with the labour vote generally holding up much better than expected.
This results in a rather inefficient tory vote and a very efficient labour vote compared to what we would expect with a 9% lead (it's barely better than what Cameron got in 2015 with an only 6.5% lead, and that was with the SNP sweeping Scotland). Am I the only one thinking they may have something wrong with their weightings, especially regarding tactical voting?0 -
Do these seat numbers add up in principle?
Tories: 308
Labour 252
Lib Dems: 14
SNP: 47
Green: 10 -
People lie to salesman all the time - and canvassers are most of the time just amateur salesman. Heck, Salesman even lie to themselves as they want to believe they have achieved something.kle4 said:
I think it implausible to suggest canvassers and activists on one side tell the truth and the ones on the other side do not, ascribing virtue to one political tribe. They're all political activists, more in common with each other than normal people, they wil likely spin and talk a good game, but that's not the same as outright lying which is less common in politics than we think.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Or perhaps the Tories on the ground just lie?kle4 said:
Well Tories have been confident about the red wall crumbling, and great word from the ground about it too, so it works both ways. But I fear the ground game is probably right in Bolsover. Symbolic moments like that are too rare.egg said:
MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.kle4 said:
More likely still is they are all mostly honest about what they see and hear, but they're crap at getting to the real picture.0 -
What does the comments from others, non Tories, saying the Tory panic is over the top and they will still easily win show?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
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Yes but time is running out for you - tick tockCorrectHorseBattery said:The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
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Even on this poll, the virulent antisemites you support are over a hundred seats behind us.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
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Here's today's Focaldata MRP spreadsheet again for comparison with Yougov's https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true0
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Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
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Didn't Johnson visit labour targets in Yorkshire and the North East yesterday? It might just have been a matter of schedule.Foxy said:So perhaps the clue was here:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1203790292299722753?s=190 -
Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
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0
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Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning). By my best guess-estimate, YouGov have it neck and neck until about 3am, then the Tories should pull away. So if the Tories are ahead before that, it should be looking like a bigger majority.
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46.5 hours until the big bong.Andy_JS said:
Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
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He visited Labour seats close to those the tories are trying to win...Nobidexx said:
Didn't Johnson visit labour targets in Yorkshire and the North East yesterday? It might just have been a matter of schedule.Foxy said:So perhaps the clue was here:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1203790292299722753?s=190 -
Interesting, Labour not having as much of an early period where they are ahead compared to the last version, IIRC.FrancisUrquhart said:Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning)
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If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!0 -
That is your spun Tory view, but labour voters see the lifelong labour MPs and ex ministers like thisCasino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
there shouldn’t be any anger towards them, all Labour leadership should urge followers and social media users not to show anger towards these people. everyone goes on a political journey in their life. They deserve to be heard as much as anyone as they bow out of frontline politics …leaving the country and the world in such fine shape where Woodcock in particular supported the unfair slaughter in Yemen, where they have endorsed Bad Brexit deals, and urging you to keep the rotten Tories in power and telling you to vote for privatisation of the NHS.
But its right they go having, like some people do as they get older, drifted so far to right they are at home supporting Britain's most right wing government, in the case of Mann, accepting job working for Boris and his ERG cabinet.
Truth is, as they bow out, the next generation coming into politics have to put right the mess on the rail, in the energy bills, at the foodbanks, around the housing crisis, the unfair foreign wars that these guys supported and walking away from.
Where I would take some issue though is how confused and rather fatuous they are in their movement against extremism, as they endorse Boris extremist policies, they endorse Boris Hard Brexit deal, as these crusaders against extremism tar every Labour candidate every party member and every enthusiastic volunteer as antisemitic and racist, yet they endorse islamophobia in the Tory party out the same mouth.
its not anger but sympathy we should feel for these lost souls. When the time comes, pray it be many years hence, may St Peter be merciful on them, as we pray he is merciful on everyone who lost their soul along the way.
And if you see it like that. That being the truth, No shame in voting labour.
0 -
MRP has it close. Lab campaigners think its close. The former thinks Con edge it the latter thinks Dennis edges it.egg said:
MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.kle4 said:
Will be close. I cashed out as Dennis moved in from 5/4 to 10/11 small profit. But i reckon Skinner by 2k or less.
Yesterday will have helped people in Bolsover are passionate about the NHS.
My only open bet currently is Leigh.
0 -
With 4 Plaid Cymru MPs it would be 6 short of the total for GB. Some of those could be independents.CorrectHorseBattery said:Do these seat numbers add up in principle?
Tories: 308
Labour 252
Lib Dems: 14
SNP: 47
Green: 10 -
They were an easy sell all the way to 22 or so. After that it's a much riskier game, as while you might expect them to only get 15 or so seats, there is a small chance you get f*cked by events.MarqueeMark said:Were the LibDems on 40 on the spreads at the start of this campaign??? Anybody still making a killing?
0 -
Labour wrecks economy, voters scream, put in ToriesSunnyJim said:It seems that people do indeed choose to forget history.
Labour's economic plans aren't even a hypothetical risk, we've done it before and we know how it will end.
And then we will be back with decades of austerity to try and repair the public finances.
And the left will be frothing at the mouth at the injustice.
And then we will do it all again in 40 years time.
Tories fillet the public sector, voters scream, put in Labour
Labour wrecks economy, etc, etc...
Repeat until dead. Classic pendulum politics. The electorate keeps swaying back and forth and the parties move with them, getting more and more extreme each time as the country gradually gets poorer and more rotten with every passing cycle. It's as inevitable as the coming of Winter.0 -
A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But the direction of travel has been clear.
0 -
How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?BluerBlue said:
If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!0 -
Nope. I don't think so. That makes 622 which is 9 short I think. There are 18 NI plus the Speaker which with your numbers would be 641. Unless you think PC will get 9 seats....CorrectHorseBattery said:Do these seat numbers add up in principle?
Tories: 308
Labour 252
Lib Dems: 14
SNP: 47
Green: 10 -
There was a small bug in my code, so that might have been part of it....also, at certain times loads of seats come in at once and the ordering might have slightly changed.kle4 said:
Interesting, Labour not having as much of an early period where they are ahead compared to the last version, IIRC.FrancisUrquhart said:Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning)
0 -
He asked for a majority, but the Marxist-loving voters didn't give it to him.eek said:
How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?BluerBlue said:
If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!
Which would be the truth.0 -
It appears there has been a swing to the Tories amongst certain demographics. For example the model now has Labour ahead by just 1% in Lincoln compared to 3% previously.
Also, Gedling has a 1% Labour lead now, compared to 3% before.0 -
I feel like a magician has just told me his secretsFrancisUrquhart said:
There was a small bug in my code, so that might have been part of it....also, at certain times loads of seats come in at once and the ordering might have slightly changed.kle4 said:
Interesting, Labour not having as much of an early period where they are ahead compared to the last version, IIRC.FrancisUrquhart said:Chart of how the night should proceed (yes I know the totals are ever so slightly off the announced totals, due to YouGov not making it clear in about 10 seats who is actually winning)
0 -
Grow upCasino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.1 -
One of the problems of the YouGov model is that it is not a Monte Carlo simulation. If there are three seats which are 39/40 lab/con you shouldn't count it as 0/3, but 1/2, because given typical volitility, that is the most likely result.Brom said:Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.
0 -
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic
0 -
I sold at 45 and I've still got my position open. I might close out tomorrow assuming the price stays at around 18-22: as you say, events.rcs1000 said:
They were an easy sell all the way to 22 or so. After that it's a much riskier game, as while you might expect them to only get 15 or so seats, there is a small chance you get f*cked by events.MarqueeMark said:Were the LibDems on 40 on the spreads at the start of this campaign??? Anybody still making a killing?
0 -
The Focaldata MRP analysis may be more accurate regarding the issues you mention, though they end up with a similar Tory majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=trueNobidexx said:I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.
The reverse seems to be true for the tories: despite their static vote share they're actually performing better or staying stable in extremely safe labour seats, including heavily remain ones (7->12% in Manchester Gorton, 13->16% in Sheffield Central, 9.7->14% in Liverpool Riverside), while generally staying static or only picking up a very modest increase in a lot of labour leave targets (Wrexham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bolsover...), sometimes even going backwards a little bit. This seems to contradict the constituency polls (including the recent Wrexham one) that showed large leads, with the labour vote generally holding up much better than expected.
This results in a rather inefficient tory vote and a very efficient labour vote compared to what we would expect with a 9% lead (it's barely better than what Cameron got in 2015 with an only 6.5% lead, and that was with the SNP sweeping Scotland). Am I the only one thinking they may have something wrong with their weightings, especially regarding tactical voting?1 -
I can't vote for someone I could never employ.bigjohnowls said:
Grow upCasino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
Now I could easily imagine Corbyn doing the garden - I can't think of any job that Boris would be trustworthy enough to do after being fired thrice for dishonesty...0 -
If you look at the fact checkers from last fridays debate, labour’s corporation tax rise only goes back to 2010 level, not the 1970s. It’s hardly Marxist, socialist or even rampant Keynes. It’s hardly class war. Meanwhile A party that can’t even count ferry’s banded fantasy figures about the fact checkers and audiences laughed at. Everything follows on from 2016. Didn’t Boris stand at lectern in Downing Street and promise hundreds of billions of pounds to flow into the country once we got Brexit done? Is that fantasy the basis of economic policy and how they intend to fund everything?BluerBlue said:
If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!
If you want to win an election you need to win the economic argument0 -
Are you sure? I don't think that's right - look at the error bars on their headline forecast.rcs1000 said:
One of the problems of the YouGov model is that it is not a Monte Carlo simulation. If there are three seats which are 39/40 lab/con you shouldn't count it as 0/3, but 1/2, because given typical volitility, that is the most likely result.Brom said:Of the red wall there appear to be more seats that Con are just missing out on than Lab. There will be differential turnouts and swings across the areas but with so many up for grabs on a knife edge the Tories would be incredibly unfortunate not to take at least 25 of them.
0 -
Uxbridge is now 49/40 instead of 50/37.0
-
Nah because then they know they will lose heavily. All of that Brexit support that Boris had will disappear so he loses all those Northern seats he gained. If he chooses another election over a No Deal he is screwed.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?0 -
You are absolutely correct about all of the above. I personally believe there is an especially hot place in hell for McCluskey in particular.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
However, when the binary alternative is a Johnson (potentially big) majority I don't see where else to go. Johnson is equally as repellent as those mentioned above and similarly dangerous in terms of his economic policy via No Deal Brexit and his casual racism and homophobia. Some of his chums JRM, Francois', IDS, Raab, Philip Davis, Chope, Bone, Bridgen, Patel, Cummings, the Barclay Brothers, Rothermere and Murdoch to name but a few are equally dubious for many differing but nonetheless unedifying reasons. I haven't even mentioned his, at the very least, brushing shoulders with Trump, Farage and Yaxley-Lennon.
Corbyn's USP is there is not a hope in Hades that he could possibly muster anything like a majority.1 -
You're literally insane.eek said:
I can't vote for someone I could never employ.bigjohnowls said:
Grow upCasino_Royale said:
I feel the same way.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
We have lifelong Labour MPs, ex Labour ministers and even someone in Corbyn's *inner circle* warning he's totally unfit for office, a disgrace to his party and a disgrace to his country. They want him gone and for the electorate to make it impossible for him to stay.
And yet, we have posters on here tonight - right now - who are pledging to vote for him.
It's absolutely disgusting. Shame on them.
Now I could easily imagine Corbyn doing the garden - I can't think of any job that Boris would be trustworthy enough to do after being fired thrice for dishonesty...0 -
The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.eek said:
How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?BluerBlue said:
If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!
Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.0 -
I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?0
-
Surely most of the data would have been collected before photogate happened?wooliedyed said:I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?
0 -
Turning to drugs is unwise.RobD said:
46.5 hours until the big bong.Andy_JS said:
Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
0 -
I do hope that the thickies like Mbryonic are shitting it
As they'll be laughing in 48 hours0 -
A far cry from the first weeks of the campaign?HYUFD said:0 -
Who , Ramsey?Charles said:
Vote Corbyn get McDonaldbigjohnowls said:
Stop bullying a fellow Jewish person.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
He hates Corbyn as much as you but also knows what damage a Johnson administration will do to the whole country.
IMO Corbyn will be gone by Friday morning anyway.
How very Democratic
Lab wont be forming a Govt IMO but hopefully enough seats that Tories dont have a Majority either.0 -
In which case things may be even worse for the Tories now...Andy_JS said:
Surely most of the data would have been collected before photogate happened?wooliedyed said:I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?
0 -
THIS....speedy2 said:
A Conservative lead bellow 10% will bring big instabillity in projected MRP numbers because there are so many seats bellow that area of swings.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But the direction of travel has been clear.
The massive majority was when YouGov had Tories 14-15% ahead. The first MRP was 11%, and now 9%. We commented when it was 11%, that loads of seats were really tight in their model, so going 10% has just made that even more of the case.
It makes sense logically if you think about it in a FPTP system. There is a barrier to clear, and if you are getting over by the MoE, then all the seats are falling your way. If you are right on it, loads of seats can go either way.0 -
Yep I think all the sensible money will be on a No Deal if we are in a Hung Parliament with Tories anything above 315 seats.speedy2 said:
The new deal won't be able to pass, but unless the DUP block no deal or once again enough Liberal Conservative MP's rebel causing yet another election something very likely, then it's a No Deal Brexit.eek said:
How does Boris forget about Brexit when he has promised we leave on January 31st?BluerBlue said:
If that's the result, I suggest Boris ally with the DUP for 5 years, forget about Brexit, and wait for Corbyn to die of old age.SunnyJim said:Hypothetical:
The Tories fall just short of a majority.
They know they can't get Brexit through.
FTPA is still in place.
There is little to no gain (and quite a risk) in being in government but no in power.
There are enough votes to stop Corbyn putting together a coalition.
Will another GE immediately follow?
That'll show him!
Most probably it will be early elections every 6 months until something increadibly big happens.0 -
I agree. It'll be a fascinating night whatever happens. As for my own party's prospects - well, if it's just 15 seats then it's just 15 seats. I'm relaxed about all possible results at this point... it's the taking part that counts, and all that...Andy_JS said:
Well I'm pleased because I just want a high turnout and an exciting election night show with lots of close seats.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tory panic on here shows what many of us know to be true: this election is running away from you.
0 -
No way to be sure. I'm hoping it's an outlier that will revert to mean by Thursday as memory fades rather than continue in a trend, but we'll only know then...wooliedyed said:I do have to say that big move in the YouGov data today is a concern for my 80 majority prediction. Is it an outlier or did photogate really hit a nerve?
0 -
The error bars capture the Monte Carlo element, but the headline is just all the individual seats added up I think.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not certain, but are they doing a Monte Carlo job to get the headline seat totals (with error bars), rather than just taking the leader in each seat irrespective of the margin?FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
0
