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This paragon of virtue will support Corbyn as PM I assume?Gallowgate said:
I am Jewish. I can safely vote for my non-Corbynista local Remainer Labour MP with good conscience.Charles said:
Nope. I didn’t choose Boris and I dislike him.Gallowgate said:
You chose Boris. You made it a 2-way battle. You made it a culture war.Charles said:
Shame on youGallowgate said:F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.
But there is a certain minimum threshold. A significant proportion of a minority group in this country is thinking of leaving if Corbyn wins.
That is shameful for the country that it has even got to the stage that they are considering it.
And shame on anyone who votes for an anti-Semitic party.
If so then your argument is bullshit0 -
Hopefully not piano wire.....RobD said:
You used exactly the same phrase as they did:CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think we're headed for a Hung Parliament. The Daily Mail seems to think we're already there. I'm happy with that.Richard_Tyndall said:
Er... you are the one who has been saying based on these polls it will be a hung Parliament. Show some consistency man!CorrectHorseBattery said:
Because the MRP suggests a safe Tory majority, this headline is hysterical.RobD said:
What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1204530426448089089
Me thinks internal polling is worse
"This election is literally going to come down to the wire"
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This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil1 -
Did you actually watch it? These Labour people hate you, just because you are Jewish.Gallowgate said:
What are you trying to prove? I already hate Corbyn and what Labour has become. I just hate the Conservatives more.Byronic said:
Then watch this. To the end. It is 7 and a half minutes long, so it's long. But it's worth it. And then tell me you're still voting Corbyn.Gallowgate said:
I am Jewish.MarqueeMark said:
Not if you are Jewish.Gallowgate said:
They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.BluerBlue said:
And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.Gallowgate said:
You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.BluerBlue said:Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.
This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.
Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
https://youtu.be/ITCX2mDiFzE
You’ve had many opportunities to change the voting system so people didn’t have to make such a choice but you didn’t.
How could you possibly vote Labour, after seeing THAT0 -
So in other words you prioritise claiming to be anti-racist over actually being anti-racist.tyson said:
I'm a zionist. I've lived in Israel. And I've stuck with the Labour Party because I still believe in it's bigger message...which is a party that is anti racistGabs3 said:
Loyalists who don't give a fuck about us Jews or the racists that have infected your party. You will vote for Corbyn regardless of what he says or does to us.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
This actually seems very common on the left.1 -
Yes.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil0 -
Nonsense. He's safe on any working majority. By which I mean any majority that'll allow him to get his WAB through. He needs 322 for an effective parliamentary majority (because of Sinn Fein) - how many of the awkward squad are left on the Tory backbenches to vote against him? Not many. So I think he's safe on 330 seats or so. For the time being...Andy_JS said:
Majority of less than 30.SouthamObserver said:Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?
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Apparently Delta Poll show an increase in support for Labour amongst parents with them leading the Tories by 8 points up from 5 points last month .0
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No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.0 -
Yes, I know. Many are my friends. I understand why they have not left. In many ways I envy them. But this is just too big a mountain to climb over for me. I cannot vote for a party that is led by Jeremy Corbyn and whose leadership team is made up of people like Milne, Murray and McCluskey. I do think they are genuinely wicked men.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
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Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Come on, please spare me the jokes... this doesn't faze you at all?rcs1000 said:0 -
Long term good for the Tories that, but in the short term a small majority would be a right bugger best avoided.speedy2 said:
Well Corbyn will not go anywhere if that is the result.KentRising said:
Any majority and he will be fine.Andy_JS said:
Majority of less than 30.SouthamObserver said:Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?
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Anti Semite Labour and corbyn played quite well earlier in the campaign, by the end those headlines which seem all over the Tory press in last week merely remind voters of Tory anti Semitism and islamiphobia, it’s become politics taking the hit not just labour.egg said:
Question. Since labour manifesto was published are you sure the Tory’s, Boris and Javid, have artfully, persuasively taken labour’s plans apart and convinced the unconvinced labour’s plans turn us into Venezuela?wooliedyed said:Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017
They haven’t, for There are 350M reasons boris and Cummings don’t have the fiscal credibility to batter labour’s manifesto.
Those papers would have been better to stuck to economics not alleged racism.0 -
So Con 367 seats? I am in the same ball park.rcs1000 said:0 -
Identifiably so? You get shouted at as you walk down the street?Gallowgate said:
I am Jewish. I can safely vote for my non-Corbynista local Remainer Labour MP with good conscience.Charles said:
Nope. I didn’t choose Boris and I dislike him.Gallowgate said:
You chose Boris. You made it a 2-way battle. You made it a culture war.Charles said:
Shame on youGallowgate said:F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.
But there is a certain minimum threshold. A significant proportion of a minority group in this country is thinking of leaving if Corbyn wins.
That is shameful for the country that it has even got to the stage that they are considering it.
And shame on anyone who votes for an anti-Semitic party.0 -
Hung Parliament.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
This has decided me.
Shift cash out of the UK tomozza0 -
They said close to being PM, not close in seats, the two need not be aligned.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Close as in 55 seats behind?speedy2 said:
It's also bang on what the swingometer says.Andy_JS said:9% ahead for a majority of just 28 would be the worst conversion rate at any general election I know of.
Basically a Lead of 7% is needed for a bare majority of 2.
There are not that many Labour marginals compared with Conservative ones, that's why Corbyn got so increadibly close to being PM last time.0 -
I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .
Boris will win , And I think win big0 -
They will have been elected on - and try to implement - a bat-shit crazy manifesto that will see the most massive flight of wealth this country has ever seen - and a flight of a significant part of the tax base.asjohnstone said:Andy_JS said:
Swinson has said that she can't support Corbyn as a potential PM.Benpointer said:What would really blow this election apart would be for Corbyn and Swinson to publicly ask that, for a dozen or so selected seats each, where the other party is the closest challanger, their voters support that challenger rather than vote for their own party.
That would likely wipe the majority away.
In fact, from Corbyn's perspective he should do that regardless of any reciprocity from the LDs. If the LDs can grab another dozen seats from the Tories because Labour are tacitly telling their supporters only the LDs can win there, that could make all the difference.
Not going to happen though is it?
You still get a Corbynist administration with someone else as PM. What's the real difference ?
And Labour will be closing hospitals within the year.
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A lot is still going to depend on the efficiency of the Lib Dem and Labour votes. If their votes are in the right seats it could yet be tight but I am expecting a Tory majority of about 400
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On positive side for the Tories, the odious Skinner is still predicted to be out on this MRP.0
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It's common with all extremism actually Mr NabaviRichard_Nabavi said:
So in other words you prioritise claiming to be anti-racist over actually being anti-racist.tyson said:
I'm a zionist. I've lived in Israel. And I've stuck with the Labour Party because I still believe in it's bigger message...which is a party that is anti racistGabs3 said:
Loyalists who don't give a fuck about us Jews or the racists that have infected your party. You will vote for Corbyn regardless of what he says or does to us.tyson said:
But SO-that party is full of people like me too. Loyalists who have stayed put.SouthamObserver said:
That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.Anabobazina said:
A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.SouthamObserver said:I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!
This actually seems very common on the left.
I've stayed in the Lab Party because I feel it will come out the other side better....and if it doesn't, at least I've fought my position from the inside...
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The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.0 -
I think Labour will win more than 2 seats......RochdalePioneers said:Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:
"Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.
And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.
Events, dear boy..."
IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.
Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.0 -
Excellent - garde ta foy!kjohnw1 said:I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .
Boris will win , And I think win big
Screw the reds on the other side and the bedwetters on our own!0 -
How about a link to the Huffington Post article?nico67 said:
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That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).0 -
Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.
So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government0 -
Are you crazy? The SNP will prop him up in a nanosecond. And the LDs will at best abstain.RochdalePioneers said:Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.
So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government1 -
That's fair enough - fighting from the inside is entirely honourable, as long as it doesn't involve any delusion about how bad Labour has become under Corbyn, or any attempts at making a false equivalence with Islamophobia in the Conservative Party, for example (to be clear I'm not accusing you of the latter, but it's a very, very common thing amongst Labour members).tyson said:
It's common with all extremism actually Mr Nabavi
I've stayed in the Lab Party because I feel it will come out the other side better....and if it doesn't, at least I've fought my position from the inside...0 -
And.. if everyone follows this logic, then Corbyn gets an actual majority.RochdalePioneers said:Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.
So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government
Grow up. We know how this works. This is PB.0 -
330 seats will see the Tories fine until an election in the spring of 2024......Dadge said:
Nonsense. He's safe on any working majority. By which I mean any majority that'll allow him to get his WAB through. He needs 322 for an effective parliamentary majority (because of Sinn Fein) - how many of the awkward squad are left on the Tory backbenches to vote against him? Not many. So I think he's safe on 330 seats or so. For the time being...Andy_JS said:
Majority of less than 30.SouthamObserver said:Just out of interest, what result puts Johnson’s future in doubt as Tory leader?
This MRP has 339.1 -
A glut of polls on the way tomorrow anyway - Survation will be the one to watch.
Goodnight PB
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In which if the tory lead goes back to 11% the majority should be comfortable againspeedy2 said:Here is what essentially yougov are finding.
Reading East (Labour seat)
Swing 1.5% to LAB
Reading West (Conservative seat)
Swing 1% to LAB
Bolton West (Conservative seat)
Swing 5.5% to CON
Bolton NE (Labour seat)
Swing 4.5% to CON
Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.
It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.0 -
The thing is, and (anecdote alert) I was chatting with a firm Tory about this the other day who agreed, Corbyn is toxic...until election time. Then people look at this gently speaking grandpa figure who says nice things about peace and listening to others, and protect the NHS, and while many will still not like him and feel he is toxic, the toxicity level seems to decrease and people decide they can risk it.kjohnw1 said:I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .
Boris will win , And I think win big
I don't think quite enough will this time. But something about him simultaneously repels people away from election time, but doesn't repel them enough during election time. It's not just his opponents, as May and BOris are very different in style and he's done it with both of them, to different degrees.0 -
On the other hand, if the MRP had been released yesterday the projected Tory majority would have been about 50.Byronic said:
No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.0 -
In Camden Town. This election won’t be won down here. It’s in the Leavey provinces and there the Tories are performing strongly. Majority of 30-50.Byronic said:
No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.0 -
What it says to me is labour seem to be getting late swing exactly where they need it, whilst Tory seats you would have thought safe five weeks ago have come in tactical play.BluerBlue said:
Come on, please spare me the jokes... this doesn't faze you at all?rcs1000 said:
The polling is showing more leave vote than last time and less remain vote. Lab + libdem three down in this yougov. This is the appeal of Boris, holding his remainers converting life long labour blue; or yougov have screwed up.0 -
2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!speedy2 said:
That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).0 -
It won't be, because his party is full of a large number of people who aren't.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
My wife who hasn't voted Labour in three elections, and is Jewish, also having not been a Labour member for many years, says she's voting for Corbyn.0 -
In 2017 it was April to June.KentRising said:0 -
Oh Gods, I'd forgotten that. I'm not lauging. No, siree. [innocent face]Anabobazina said:1 -
I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.1 -
You didn't do anything to deserve it. It's simply that the general population isn't interested in the rights of minorities, unless they belong to those minorities themselves or have family or close friends who do.Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
The Jewish community is relatively small and, at the orthodox end at least, largely self-segregating. Therefore hardly anyone gives a fuck about you.
This is a nasty country and if you want to survive in it you have to both fight for your rights and trust to bloody luck. Us gays have only got as far in society as we have by being (a) very noisy and hard to ignore and (b) scattered everywhere, so lots of people have a stake in making sure that we don't get strung up from cranes or thrown off the roofs of tall buildings as happens in other polities of which Mr Corbyn approves. Jews, by contrast, largely live their lives quietly and are concentrated in pockets, so they're easy to pick on. It's as simple as that.
Israel exists because of people like Corbyn. If you were to conclude that the best response to him was to run away then I wouldn't blame you one iota.0 -
Yougov MRP has Cities of London and Westminster 38% Tory 32% LD and 25% Labour, so Chuka now clearly has the best shot of the LDs in central London with Gyimah now 3rd in Kensington and the Tories over 10% ahead in Chelsea and Fulham and over 20% ahead in Finchley and Golders Green
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
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On a last observation, if the Yougov MRP is correct then once again the GfK Consumer Confidence Index will have been proven correct in forecasting the election.
It predicted a Hung Parliament with the worst confidence numbers in it's record apart from Gordon Brown's in 2010.
The bad economy has determined the result.0 -
Curious to see what SI spreads do when they open tomorrow. They haven't been nearly as sensitive to polling as Betfair throughout the campaign.0
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If Boris does get his majority scrapping the FTPA needs to be one of his first dutiesSunil_Prasannan said:
In 2017 it was April to June.KentRising said:0 -
Name them.nunu2 said:
I think Labour will win more than 2 seats......RochdalePioneers said:Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:
"Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.
And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.
Events, dear boy..."
IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.
Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.0 -
Or they quite like Parliament and don't like or trust Boris..BluerBlue said:
2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!speedy2 said:
That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).0 -
0
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Hey now, I live in a safe Tory seat, I can vote anyway I like or not at all and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference, thank you. I voted Tory last time as I figured I should not be able to escape culpability for any crapness the Tories might put us through, but no need to worry about this time.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU0 -
WhisperingOracle said:
It won't be, because his party is full of people who aren't.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
And a fat lot of good they have done in trying to stop Labour's racism.
In case you haven't noticed it's been open season whilst Corbyn's been in opposition.0 -
32 tory gains is not bad. All they need to do now is hold off the SNP and the yellow peril.HYUFD said:
No, the Tories picking up where they need to in the North and Midlands.CorrectHorseBattery said:
So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?speedy2 said:Here is what essentially yougov are finding.
Reading East (Labour seat)
Swing 1.5% to LAB
Reading West (Conservative seat)
Swing 1% to LAB
Bolton West (Conservative seat)
Swing 5.5% to CON
Bolton NE (Labour seat)
Swing 4.5% to CON
Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.
It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.
32 Tory gains projected, only 2 Labour, both in London, Chipping Barnet and Putney.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523046201167872?s=20
Wales is like Lucy's football, everytime the tories get close it is snatched away from them at the last moment.2 -
"If the poll had been polled at a different time, it would be different"Chris said:
On the other hand, if the MRP had been released yesterday the projected Tory majority would have been about 50.Byronic said:
No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
Ye Gods.,0 -
I find the 3% labour prediction in East Devon really odd. Afaik they didn't get below 8% anywhere in 2017 and got 11.4% in that seat. That would be a ridiculous amount of tactical voting, has labour ever received less than 3% of the vote anywhere in recent memory? There's similar findings in other seats, like 19->9% in Cheadle, 10.9->4% in Moray, 13->5% in Angus, and a bunch of others. Labour didn't drop anywhere near that low in those seats in 2015, despite a lower national share of the vote.
The reverse seems to be true for the tories: despite their static vote share they're actually performing better or staying stable in extremely safe labour seats, including heavily remain ones (7->12% in Manchester Gorton, 13->16% in Sheffield Central, 9.7->14% in Liverpool Riverside), while generally staying static or only picking up a very modest increase in a lot of labour leave targets (Wrexham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bolsover...), sometimes even going backwards a little bit. This seems to contradict the constituency polls (including the recent Wrexham one) that showed large leads, with the labour vote generally holding up much better than expected.
This results in a rather inefficient tory vote and a very efficient labour vote compared to what we would expect with a 9% lead (it's barely better than what Cameron got in 2015 with an only 6.5% lead, and that was with the SNP sweeping Scotland). Am I the only one thinking they may have something wrong with their weightings, especially regarding tactical voting?
1 -
Ah yes the fabled Labour moderates, they will stop Corybn's mob, and the moderates track record over the last few years is really encouraging, isn't it?WhisperingOracle said:
It won't be, because his party is full of people who aren't.Gabs3 said:
The leader of the Labour Party approved of a bitterly anti-Semitic mural showing us Jews preying on the backs of the world's poor. He honoured a man who said we drank the blood of gentile babies. He commemorated a terrorist who slaughted innocent Jewish athletes in cold blood.Gallowgate said:
This is total hysteria.Charles said:
It’s not “nobody taking your side”Gabs3 said:
It won't limit his control over foreign policy, where he will ally with every anti-Jewish Islamist group. It won't limit the stature and authority that goes with the office which shows being anti-Semitic does not hold you back in this country. And most importantly, it won't limit the effect that always happens with a minority government, whereby they always squeeze their junior partners and get a bigger result next time.Beibheirli_C said:
Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.Gabs3 said:I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.
What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
My family have always thought of ourselves as British. And suddenly our place here as a valued part of society has dried up out of nowhere. And no one takes our side. And people laugh at our fear as "bedwetting".
What did we do to deserve this?
There’s a large of people who are horrified by Corbyn et al.
Sadly there is a large group who will accommodate evil
If Corbyn wins it will be open season for anti-Semitism.
My wife who hasn't voted Labour in three elections, and is Jewish, says she's voting for Corbyn.0 -
The MRP has Sedgefield on a knife edge - that doesn't feel right to me.Anabobazina said:
In Camden Town. This election won’t be won down here. It’s in the Leavey provinces and there the Tories are performing strongly. Majority of 30-50.Byronic said:
No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.0 -
Whatever ! LolByronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.
Your case would be so much stronger if on the other side we had the Flying Nun not a morally bankrupt liar .0 -
I find it hard to believe that you're only hitting the sauce now.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.0 -
They largely are, 8 Scottish Tory seats projected still including 1 Tory gain from the SNP, Lanark and Hamilton Eastnunu2 said:
32 tory gains is not bad. All they need to do now is hold off the SNPHYUFD said:
No, the Tories picking up where they need to in the North and Midlands.CorrectHorseBattery said:
So it's actually Labour picking up where it needs to and the Tories stacking up votes in safe seats?speedy2 said:Here is what essentially yougov are finding.
Reading East (Labour seat)
Swing 1.5% to LAB
Reading West (Conservative seat)
Swing 1% to LAB
Bolton West (Conservative seat)
Swing 5.5% to CON
Bolton NE (Labour seat)
Swing 4.5% to CON
Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.
It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.
32 Tory gains projected, only 2 Labour, both in London, Chipping Barnet and Putney.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523046201167872?s=200 -
"everyone" being the world outside PB. Again, if Jezbollah is a threat please someone show me all the seats Labour are going to take off the Tories.Byronic said:
And.. if everyone follows this logic, then Corbyn gets an actual majority.RochdalePioneers said:Again. All MRP shows is a hung parliament with the Tories as a minority government as their worst case scenario. best case scenario puts them on a majority of 60. Corbyn will not be PM because nobody can tell me the 60 seats they would win in order to become the government.
So if Gallowgate wants to vote to stop Johnson let him - it isn't a vote for a Corbyn government as there is no route to a Corbyn government
Grow up. We know how this works. This is PB.0 -
Anyone know if Comrade Corbin is taking volunteers for the NKVD arrest squads that PB Tories seem certain will be prowling the streets come Friday morning? I quite fancy shipping SeanT off to the Gulag.0
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Biggest deficit overturned for a Tory gain predicted to be..Sedgefield?0
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Jezza is a good campaigner, and does come over as sincere in his beliefs and principled (whether you like those beliefs and principles is a rather different matter!). This is a sharp contrast to BoZo's unprincipled mendacity. People like sincerity.kle4 said:
The thing is, and (anecdote alert) I was chatting with a firm Tory about this the other day who agreed, Corbyn is toxic...until election time. Then people look at this gently speaking grandpa figure who says nice things about peace and listening to others, and protect the NHS, and while many will still not like him and feel he is toxic, the toxicity level seems to decrease and people decide they can risk it.kjohnw1 said:I still think when it comes down to it Corbyn is so toxic people will hold nose and vote Boris . They know he’s a gaff prone politician and plays loose with the truth . But he is more credible than an extreme left wing Marxist terrorist sympathiser who wants to bankrupt and destroy Great Britain .
Boris will win , And I think win big
I don't think quite enough will this time. But something about him simultaneously repels people away from election time, but doesn't repel them enough during election time. It's not just his opponents, as May and BOris are very different in style and he's done it with both of them, to different degrees.0 -
SpreadEx is still up:Andrew said:Curious to see what SI spreads do when they open tomorrow. They haven't been nearly as sensitive to polling as Betfair throughout the campaign.
Con 338-346
Lab 217-225
SNP 42-44
LD 18-22
I don't think that's a very big change - the Con spread was already down relative to early this morning.0 -
Same thing happened in the 1970's.BluerBlue said:
2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!speedy2 said:
That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).
Unless one tribal side breaks apart, or the SNP disintegrates it will always be a close result.
The only thing we had is Conservatives voting Labour and Labour voting Conservative by the same numbers.0 -
Hung parliaments are great. They stop both the Labour Party (barmy) and the Tory Party (bonkers) doing anything. More please!BluerBlue said:
2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!speedy2 said:
That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).0 -
Poor guy's not even here, ahem, but he's getting shipped off.rpjs said:Anyone know if Comrade Corbin is taking volunteers for the NKVD arrest squads that PB Tories seem certain will be prowling the streets come Friday morning? I quite fancy shipping SeanT off to the Gulag.
And everyone knows the arrest squads will wait until after Christmas. Even the NKVD needed time off.0 -
It does, working class Sedgefield voters still love Blair but loathe Corbyn and the Tory candidate is a popular local councilloreek said:
The MRP has Sedgefield on a knife edge - that doesn't feel right to me.Anabobazina said:
In Camden Town. This election won’t be won down here. It’s in the Leavey provinces and there the Tories are performing strongly. Majority of 30-50.Byronic said:
No, look at the YouGov VI polling. There has been a steep move to Labour in the last few days. And I sensed it.Chris said:
We are talking about a one-percent swing since the first MRP, aren't we?Byronic said:
Yes, you are bloody clueless.rcs1000 said:This poll proves I am better at forecasting LibDem seats than Conservative or Labour ones...
It is amazing how being in a foreign country soon detaches you from your home country's reality. But it does.
You have to be in a place to know a palce. It's almost supernatural, how you can sense the mood of your own nation: it's something about walking the streets, talking to family, being in the shops and bars, it informs you.
I came on here this morning and said there had been a horrible shift. I was right.
And if the release had been yesterday, it would have been exactly the same lead ...
No one panics like PB Tories. Fun to watch, though.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-voted-for-tony-blair-but-dont-mention-corbyn-in-sedgefield-9k7cv0wj70 -
I can’t tell if that is an early “Conservatives are doomed & I told you so” or a “nothing has changed”RochdalePioneers said:Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:
"Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.
And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.
Events, dear boy..."
IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.
Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.
Hedge your bets!0 -
That can be a benefit, and better than a landslide, but occasionally we do need parliaments to do things, and now that coalitions and even formal agreements are a bridge too far for parties, it won't be fun to have a hung parliament, if necessary for certain outcomes.Anabobazina said:
Hung parliaments are great. They stop both the Labour Party (barmy) and the Tory Party (bonkers) doing anything. More please!BluerBlue said:
2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!speedy2 said:
That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).0 -
Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?0
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ok hope you havent put too much on 80 maj or LAB under 200wooliedyed said:Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017
You have repeated your normal mistake of Underestimating Jezza
Fortunately for you he will be gone in 60 hrs despite the loss being fairly narrow.0 -
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MRP v labour on ground in bolsover been confident for weeks. Both those things can’t be right.kle4 said:0 -
SLAB to pick up Glasgow East according to the MRP. Does anyone actually believe that's plausible?0
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I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
Edit: or they run the simulation a million times and the topline figure is the median of those million runs.0 -
Champagne doesn't count. It is basically oxygenOnlyLivingBoy said:
I find it hard to believe that you're only hitting the sauce now.Byronic said:I hereby reserve the right to absolutely loudly and relentlessly despise, to the point of verbal abuse, anyone who votes for, or enables, a Corbyn government, in any form, majority or non-majority.
We've given you the evidence. If you ignore it, then it is ALL ON YOU
Now I need wine.0 -
Labour now holding most of their Scottish seats, as are the Tories and the LDs holding all theirs. Not a good poll for the SNP.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523085728305159?s=200 -
0
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Not sticking around for a transitional period? He should stick around until January - "Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader 2015-2020" looks better for the history books than 2015-2019. Main reason May stuck it out to 2019!bigjohnowls said:
ok hope you havent put too much on 80 maj or LAB under 200wooliedyed said:Im sticking with my prediction of an 80 majority and labour under 200. This is nothing like 2017
You have repeated your normal mistake of Underestimating Jezza
Fortunately for you he will be gone in 60 hrs despite the loss being fairly narrow.1 -
There are cases on their chart (and excel sheet) e.g. Bedford, they have it 43 / 43.RobD said:
I guess they just use the median outcome of each seat, so it'd be virtually impossible for there to be a tie.FrancisUrquhart said:Question - In the seats that are "toss-up"s for YouGov, they must allocate them to somebody for their overall seat count. I can't see where they do that. Anybody?
Without knowing who to allocate it to, I end up double counting those as wins for Tory and Lab in my charts.0 -
They will be in for a very nasty shock in that case.eek said:
Or they quite like Parliament and don't like or trust Boris..BluerBlue said:
2 and half years of an ungovernable country ... and the voters in their wisdom want five more... God help us!speedy2 said:
That's what I'm expecting.Chris said:
Taking account of the fact that the MRP lags by half a week, that trend would take the Tory seat total pretty close to 325 by polling day.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's why the direction is no change, more of the same.
It's like the British public are so satisfied with how things are going they don't want any change at all (it's an ironic statement).0
