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  • It's always the hope that kills you in the end. I had resigned myself to a gloomy evening of Tory triumphalism, of Getting Brexit Done, of Five More Years. And now this last late sliver of hope. Just to set me up for a crushing night of Tory victory no doubt.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Wasn't this the bloke who didn't want his son's death politicised?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    RobD said:

    Interesting, the topline lead is 9%, but all but one of the data points have a lead above 9%.

    Edit: I think i'm misinterpreting the plot. It's the output of the model on each day, which uses the previous seven days.
    I think so.

    Tories must be hoping the two-point drop in the lead on the last day doesn't reflect the inclusion of just one day out of seven post-PhoneGate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited December 2019

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    Warwick and Leamington was a Remain seat, almost all the projected Tory gains bar Lanark and Hamilton East in Scotland are now in Leave seats
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    BluerBlue said:

    Esher & Walton


    Con 46

    LD 44

    Lab 8

    So this does take into account tactical voting then?
    Well sort of as in we’re likely to be seeing that already in those constituency projections but it can’t account for what might happen on the day .
  • Alistair said:

    Byronic said:

    The final TSE remark on Boris is not justified.

    When Boris went for this election, remember what most people said? That an overall majority would be really hard, that the combination of BXP, tactical voting, resurgent Lib Dems, difficult seats, etc etc etc, meant it was almost impossible for him to get a resounding win.

    If this vote had taken place last Thursday, he would have got a hefty majority.

    As it happens, it is now a toss-up between a small majority and a hung parliament.

    The Tories have fought a tight and clever campaign, with some great messaging, but it was always an uphill struggle: for a governing party to win a fourth term in a row?

    If these were normal times, as a rightwinger, I would now say, fair's fair, it's time for the other guys, give them a go.

    But these are not normal times. The other guy is a Marxist and an anti-Semite.

    We are fucked.

    4th term in a row? You realise the last 2 terms have hardly been of significant length right?
    They have been the length of a Scot Nat generation.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
    I am Jewish.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,831
    speedy2 said:

    The surprise is how badly the Conservatives are doing in scotland and wales.
    No regional poll has them doing that bad.

    The Tories are doing fine on this poll. Based on this they could easily end up with more seats than they started with.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Anyone voting Labour needs a smack upside the head.

    Fixed it for you
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.

    Do you have no self-awareness?
    Boris makes mad comments in old articles, Corbyn is an actual lefty fascist who works for Press TV, admires Hamas, enables Stalinists, wants to seize private property, thinks the IRA were great, on and on and on and fucking on. You have no brain. You will own what happens if Corbyn gets near power.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MikeL said:

    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.

    Maybe cons picking up lots of useless votes in non-marginal northern labour seats?
  • Floater said:

    Anyone voting Labour needs a smack upside the head.

    Fixed it for you
    I see what you did there.
  • East Dunbartonshire tied 37/37 on the spreadsheet.
  • I am not making any predictions on this safe to say it will be between hung and a good majority

    I am not intending arguing with anyone and respect the thoughts and even prayers of all sides

    We will know by friday morning and the one good thing is that by this time tomorrow the campaign will be over

    Have a pleasant night folks

    Good night
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.

    Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.
    Btw IOW update - the Greens are running a polling day GOTV, at least in the main towns. I can’t see them getting even to second but at least they are trying.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,382
    My takeaway is Con Maj on knife-edge given momentum of lead closing.

    However Con should be reassured that lead (43/34) only cut by 1% from YouGov Sunday Times (43/33) and Con share is steady at 43% - so nothing YET to imply Con hit by phonegate.

    Con 43 is same as 2017 which in turn implies Lab still need to gain a lot to match 2017. LDs falling back so feels unlikely that they outperform this MRP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    Surely 317 Tory seats this time wouldn't be enough with DUP support, aren't they set to lose two?

    Possible net loss of 0, losing one and gaining north down. But it still wouldn't be enough as they need votes for the WA, which the DUP won't give them. Low 320s is enough to scrape over the line.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    One more thing I will say about the MRP is that in their list of projected Tory gains the one with the largest swing of the lot is North Norfolk. So there.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Shame on you
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited December 2019

    We will need to see more polls post Johnson's NHS comments, which according to the focus group I saw, has cut through.

    11 million views now, that's a lot of people.

    Anyone who saw the Ashworth video, they already know they've been told Corbyn is unfit, he's a danger, etc. It won't move the dial at all.

    Corbyn publicly trashed by a senior member of his team, brilliant.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    Look, if you guys are going to panic, I'm going to put on some appropriate music...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8IfIskgd8g&feature=youtu.be&t=209

    There. HAPPY NOW????
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    Foxy said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    He is still better than a mendacious sociopath of a clown. The SNP will keep Jezza in line.

    I still predict Con 360+. Are we having a PB NoJam contest?
    No, he’s not.
    They are both insupportable. And unsupportable.
  • Wasn't this the bloke who didn't want his son's death politicised?
    Somehow CHB doesn't give a shit about such things if they help the Marxist cause...
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    MikeL said:

    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.

    Nope.
    A Conservative lead of 9 is only a 3.5% swing, it would give something like a majority of 34.

    The Yougov MRP is basically what you would expect in England, but not in Scotland and Wales.

    Scottish Conservatives facing wipeout again with Labour holding their Scottish seats is the inverse of what you would expect based on the polls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    MikeL said:

    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.

    Maybe cons picking up lots of useless votes in non-marginal northern labour seats?
    Banging their heads against the red wall will leave them bloody and bruised, and only a few bricks dislodged.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,293
    edited December 2019
    I will eat a pineapple pizza every day for the rest of the year if there's a hung Parliament, just so I can write on Thursday night/Friday morning that David Cameron (pbuh) is still the only Tory to win a majority in the last 27 years.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529
    Charles said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Shame on you
    You chose Boris. You made it a 2-way battle. You made it a culture war.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,831
    edited December 2019

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    Labour have made it a culture war for the last 40 years.
    By decriminalising homosexuality?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478
    Well we are none the wiser now than we were before 10 pm. If we take account of MOE the MRP gives us anything from a hung parliament to a 100 plus majority.

    As much use as a chocolate fireguard!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564

    I will eat a pineapple pizza every day for the rest of the year if there's a hung Parliament, just so I can write on Thursday night/Friday morning that David Cameron (pbuh) is still the only Tory to win a majority in the last 27 years.

    If we do get a majority Tory government I trust your handy bar chart will be updated?
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,979

    My Spreadsheet now contains all the latest MRP data.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA

    Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.

    That is a great resource: thank you.
    I thought you might like a spreadsheet or two....

  • speedy2 said:

    The surprise is how badly the Conservatives are doing in scotland and wales.
    No regional poll has them doing that bad.

    On very small swings compared with MRPv1, though. Scotland is tricky because there is such a high proportion of close marginals, and with four parties in contention in the various seats.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,030

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.

    Do you have no self-awareness?
    This election has been tragic. I suppose it echoes the tragedy of Brexit.

    But the fact that we as a nation are offered the stark choice between two extreme parties led by two shit leaders - it's a national disgrace.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    The surprise is how badly the Conservatives are doing in scotland and wales.
    No regional poll has them doing that bad.

    The Tories are actually holding most of their seats in Scotland with Yougov MRP still and now projected to gain Lanark and Hamilton East from the SNP so are actually doing quite well in Scotland.

    In Wales though they are only predicted to gain 1 seat
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
    I am Jewish.
    Then watch this. To the end. It is 7 and a half minutes long, so it's long. But it's worth it. And then tell me you're still voting Corbyn.

    https://youtu.be/ITCX2mDiFzE
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,831
    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.

    Nope.
    A Conservative lead of 9 is only a 3.5% swing, it would give something like a majority of 34.

    The Yougov MRP is basically what you would expect in England, but not in Scotland and Wales.

    Scottish Conservatives facing wipeout again with Labour holding their Scottish seats is the inverse of what you would expect based on the polls.
    All the SCon seats 'lost' are on ultra fine margins. And they are winning and chellengong seats they do not currently have.

    They could easily end the election with 15 Scottish seats.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,274
    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Nobody seriously believes Corbyn will get an overall majority so it's quite safe to vote tactically to try to get a hung parliament. The one thing the Ads, Labour and SNP can agree on is a second referendum
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Good lets get the Tories out and a 2nd Referendum
  • IanB2 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    This does tend to rather illustrate Gallowgate's point.

    Whether this culture war has been successful or not is still too early say, though. I still don't think we're in definite hung parliament territory yet, although it's close.
    Btw IOW update - the Greens are running a polling day GOTV, at least in the main towns. I can’t see them getting even to second but at least they are trying.
    Thanks for the update. Weird that the Yougov MRP seems to hint at Dulwich as one of their best chances instead.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    BluerBlue said:

    Wasn't this the bloke who didn't want his son's death politicised?
    Somehow CHB doesn't give a shit about such things if they help the Marxist cause...
    Did he really not want the death politicised? Or did he not want it used to support a specific political view?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    I am not Jewish and I feel physically sick. The man's a menace.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.
    They won’t, of course.

    A question party supporters always struggle with of course. How obviously devilish are the other side, and yet millions turn out against them. Few are honest enough to blame the public for being idiots, which is generally the implied position from those flabbergasted people could vote for the other lot.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
    According to Pratchett, it's the frozen corpses of double-glazing salesmen.

    Pause.

    I'm not helping, am I? Go away, viewcode... :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    So. When's the next poll out? :D
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.

    Never before has a Marxist terrorist bootlicker been on offer as a potential PM.
    Exactly. And you guys chose a buffoon with a history of lying and making homophobic and racist comments.

    Do you have no self-awareness?
    Boris makes mad comments in old articles, Corbyn is an actual lefty fascist who works for Press TV, admires Hamas, enables Stalinists, wants to seize private property, thinks the IRA were great, on and on and on and fucking on. You have no brain. You will own what happens if Corbyn gets near power.
    Wouldn’t you have taken a 30 seat majority if you were offered it a few months back .

    As for Bozos comments , he’s lucky the media haven’t made more of them in the campaign .

    If he can’t win an election with the vast majority of the print media on his side and the BBC now becoming a government mouthpiece then it shows how useless he is .

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,945
    Lab now slated for gains in Chipping Barnet and Putney
  • Alistair said:

    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.

    Nope.
    A Conservative lead of 9 is only a 3.5% swing, it would give something like a majority of 34.

    The Yougov MRP is basically what you would expect in England, but not in Scotland and Wales.

    Scottish Conservatives facing wipeout again with Labour holding their Scottish seats is the inverse of what you would expect based on the polls.
    All the SCon seats 'lost' are on ultra fine margins. And they are winning and chellengong seats they do not currently have.

    They could easily end the election with 15 Scottish seats.
    Stop, it's things like that make me horny unable to sleep.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,475
    In the full report here it has daily estimates of vote share and seats.
    Labour have been rocketing up - and Lib Dems in freefall.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uk714vkjy3/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release (5).pdf
  • Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    The Tories have never had to compete with Father Christmas before.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    viewcode said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
    According to Pratchett, it's the frozen corpses of double-glazing salesmen.

    Pause.

    I'm not helping, am I? Go away, viewcode... :(
    No, come back viewcode!!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,831
    BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Beyond. Parody.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529
    Byronic said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
    I am Jewish.
    Then watch this. To the end. It is 7 and a half minutes long, so it's long. But it's worth it. And then tell me you're still voting Corbyn.

    https://youtu.be/ITCX2mDiFzE
    What are you trying to prove? I already hate Corbyn and what Labour has become. I just hate the Conservatives more.

    You’ve had many opportunities to change the voting system so people didn’t have to make such a choice but you didn’t.
  • £5 on East Devon @ 1.94 for the Indy. Lost my lunch money?
  • As a triangulation / reality check...

    I know the MRP was a good forecast in 2017, but it picked up something we didn’t notice in the late polls, but which was there.

    This MRP is at distinct variance from most of the polls, including some of the recent constituency and Welsh barometer - and the gap in those National polls in much wider and much later than last time.

    Can Labour really close a bigger gap in less time than 2017, with Corbyn so much further behind in his ratings and and even more left-wing manifesto?

    Are we over-estimating the accuracy of this forecast based upon 2017? The feedback from Labour foot soldiers speaks of a “dire” and “shit” position.

    The fundamental dynamics surely haven’t shifted for Lab leavers? Brexit > NHS > Corbyn?

    I’m still expecting a majority of circa 60 on the day - but Boris needs to be on form tomorrow. And Jo Swinson needs resuscitating a bit.
  • FPT:

    I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.

    I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.
    I’ve been too busy then too ill to get an independent sense of what is going on. There’s huge dissatisfaction at the available choice and that’s as much as I’ve picked up.
    I hope you are feeling better. FWIW, I agree on the dissatisfaction. I know more than one person who would like to see all three party leaders lose their seats :)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    OllyT said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    Nobody seriously believes Corbyn will get an overall majority so it's quite safe to vote tactically to try to get a hung parliament. The one thing the Ads, Labour and SNP can agree on is a second referendum
    No it really is not - you cant give the anti semites and marxists legitimacy - will will be able to get rid of them once in.

    And how comes Brexit was really bad because it might end the Union become - its ok to gift the SNP another referendum - which might break up Union?

    Either it matters or it does not
  • BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Now is the time for everyone who doesn't want the country destroyed to turn out for the Tories.

    This poll should help remind waverers just how close the far left is to power.

    You idiots only have yourselves to blame.You made this a culture war.
    And you want to make it a war of annihilation by electing Corbyn and his lunatic cabal.
    They are both as bad as each other but at least Corbyn has good intentions.
    Not if you are Jewish.

    Or have any assets they will need to plunder. Like a pension pot....
    I am Jewish.
    You'll now be told you're the wrong type of Jew, probably a self hating one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    No, we will tell ourselves we are still heading for the biggest majority and voteshare since Thatcher despite diehard Remainers like you lending your votes to Corbyn purely out of spite to try and stop Brexit and deny the referendum result
  • Can I be a cynic and just point out that if any one of us was asked for a best guess range of results, we’d have said Hung Parliament through to big majority, with a midpoint around 30.

    The Yougov model might be brilliant, but it’s not counterintuitive like last time.

    As ever, the final result looks like a question of who gets out the vote.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019

    One more thing I will say about the MRP is that in their list of projected Tory gains the one with the largest swing of the lot is North Norfolk. So there.

    My way of coping with a potential carbon copy of the hopeless 2017 Parliament is simply to watch what happens in North Norfolk and ignore the other 649 seats altogether. If North Norfolk changes hands then I shall feel vindicated.

    Of course, if it's worse than that and we end up with Corbyn in charge then the next thing I shall do is move my life savings into my Canadian dollar bank account before exchange controls are implemented and the pound crashes to parity with the Zambian kwacha.
  • Gabs3 said:

    I feel physically sick at the idea of Corbyn being Prime Minister. Yet I now feel it is likely.

    What did us Jews do to deserve this? We embraced this country. We embraced its values. We integrated. And now we are cast aside by people that see themselves as liberals and progressives. I am so distraught.

    Corbyn will not be PM, but even if he was, it would likely be a minority govt and that would hugely limit his power.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,037

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Good lets get the Tories out and a 2nd Referendum
    You were against a second vote a few minutes ago.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    An orgy of PB Tory bedwetting on here.

    Nanny!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    Those emojis don’t seem to be working out the way we were promised?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Alistair said:

    speedy2 said:

    MikeL said:

    This surely implies Lab outperforming UNS.

    And it's not as if LDs are distorting what Con requires - ie high LD seats means greater Con lead needed for majority. We only have LD net gain of 3 seats.

    So how does this reconcile? Lab must be outperforming where matters most.

    But a bit counterintuitive as lots of Lab marginals in Leave areas where Con should outperform UNS.

    Nope.
    A Conservative lead of 9 is only a 3.5% swing, it would give something like a majority of 34.

    The Yougov MRP is basically what you would expect in England, but not in Scotland and Wales.

    Scottish Conservatives facing wipeout again with Labour holding their Scottish seats is the inverse of what you would expect based on the polls.
    All the SCon seats 'lost' are on ultra fine margins. And they are winning and chellengong seats they do not currently have.

    They could easily end the election with 15 Scottish seats.
    That would be pretty hilarious, particularly if Wales and the North of England disappoint for the Tories again, and Scotland not only saves their bacon like in 2017 but actually sees them into majority territory as well.

    I don't know if there is data on which election has had the highest number of 'close' results (probably a recent one given Scotland has been so volatile in nearly every seat), but it feels like we could be challenging for it, even as hundreds of seats remain ultra safe.
  • Floater said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/10/blow-growth-economy-counts-cost-lingering-brexit-uncertainty/

    Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.

    Tories killing economy by ill-thought-out Brexit farrago means people mustn't vote Labour, Telegraph claims...
  • This election is literally going to come down to the wire
  • F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Good lets get the Tories out and a 2nd Referendum
    Sadly I think it is most likely we are back on course for a No Deal Brexit now. Remainers will have once again shot themselves in the foot.
  • BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Amazingly, it’s not in any way shape or form the fault of Conservatives.

    If you alienate and abuse people, rip up all constitutional norms and offer nothing other than a retreat to irrelevance for the country, you are going to struggle to get those people to vote for you. Just a thought you might want to chew on.
  • Jonathan said:

    F*ck it I’m going to vote Labour.

    Good lets get the Tories out and a 2nd Referendum
    You were against a second vote a few minutes ago.
    Political opinion moves fast these days :D:D
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,382
    Are we clear on methodology?

    OK, they interview for 7 days to get full data but do they then adjust first 6 days data by overall swing from eg Day -4 to Day 0 so that final output reconciles to position on final day?

    Hope that makes sense!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Interesting change. LDs were not out of it in the last MRP so if the fear was the Tories winning it back its surprising they could not squeeze Labour, instead their prospective supporters fled back to Labour.

    Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.

    Well yes, it is not magically accurate or anything. Does it feel right? Not really, the polls have been steady enough, but with so many close calls there's such a wide range anything from 315-395 looks possible on very similar final votes.
    Re: Kensington you’ve never met Sam have you?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529
    HYUFD said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    No, we will tell ourselves we are still heading for the biggest majority and voteshare since Thatcher despite diehard Remainers like you lending your votes to Corbyn purely out of spite to try and stop Brexit and deny the referendum result
    Haha :D I’ve missed this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639
    9% ahead for a majority of just 28 would be the worst conversion rate at any general election I know of.
  • The maddest thing about this election is that, if the MRP is broadly accurate, the Tories and Labour still end up with 570 seats between them. Given how clearly unfit for any position of responsibility the leaders of those parties are it's a sorry state of affairs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    As a triangulation / reality check...

    I know the MRP was a good forecast in 2017, but it picked up something we didn’t notice in the late polls, but which was there.

    This MRP is at distinct variance from most of the polls, including some of the recent constituency and Welsh barometer - and the gap in those National polls in much wider and much later than last time.

    Can Labour really close a bigger gap in less time than 2017, with Corbyn so much further behind in his ratings and and even more left-wing manifesto?

    Are we over-estimating the accuracy of this forecast based upon 2017? The feedback from Labour foot soldiers speaks of a “dire” and “shit” position.

    The fundamental dynamics surely haven’t shifted for Lab leavers? Brexit > NHS > Corbyn?

    I’m still expecting a majority of circa 60 on the day - but Boris needs to be on form tomorrow. And Jo Swinson needs resuscitating a bit.

    Remember in 2017 it was the first MRP that was YouGov's masterpiece not the final one... ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Interesting change. LDs were not out of it in the last MRP so if the fear was the Tories winning it back its surprising they could not squeeze Labour, instead their prospective supporters fled back to Labour.

    Worth remembering that last time the earlier YouGov MRP was closer than the last one. Jus' sayin'.

    Well yes, it is not magically accurate or anything. Does it feel right? Not really, the polls have been steady enough, but with so many close calls there's such a wide range anything from 315-395 looks possible on very similar final votes.
    Re: Kensington you’ve never met Sam have you?
    I have not. Can he be that bad?
  • There are some odd shifts compared with MRPv1: look at Kensington and at Caithness, Sutherland & Easterross:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109/photo/1
  • The interesting thing is that the biggest swing to Labour seems to have come in the last 24 hours, so it's therefore feasible it could happen again tomorrow.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639
    edited December 2019

    As a triangulation / reality check...

    I know the MRP was a good forecast in 2017, but it picked up something we didn’t notice in the late polls, but which was there.

    This MRP is at distinct variance from most of the polls, including some of the recent constituency and Welsh barometer - and the gap in those National polls in much wider and much later than last time.

    Can Labour really close a bigger gap in less time than 2017, with Corbyn so much further behind in his ratings and and even more left-wing manifesto?

    Are we over-estimating the accuracy of this forecast based upon 2017? The feedback from Labour foot soldiers speaks of a “dire” and “shit” position.

    The fundamental dynamics surely haven’t shifted for Lab leavers? Brexit > NHS > Corbyn?

    I’m still expecting a majority of circa 60 on the day - but Boris needs to be on form tomorrow. And Jo Swinson needs resuscitating a bit.

    The updated version of the MRP in 2017 was not as good as the original version at predicting the result, which suggests it wasn't anything to do with the late polls if by that you mean the ones in the last week or so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Amazingly, it’s not in any way shape or form the fault of Conservatives.

    If you alienate and abuse people, rip up all constitutional norms and offer nothing other than a retreat to irrelevance for the country, you are going to struggle to get those people to vote for you. Just a thought you might want to chew on.
    Alright, the point is valid, but the way you present it makes it sound it impossible that the Tories could be the most popular party in the country, but they probably will be.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,661

    BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Amazingly, it’s not in any way shape or form the fault of Conservatives.

    If you alienate and abuse people, rip up all constitutional norms and offer nothing other than a retreat to irrelevance for the country, you are going to struggle to get those people to vote for you. Just a thought you might want to chew on.
    To be fair, the same is also true of most Corbynista campaigning over the past two years.

    The Owen Jones and Aaron Bastanis of this world appear genuinely surprised that, after two years of telling "centrist melts" to "fuck off and join the Tories", said centrist melts have fucked off and joined the Tories.
  • Well well well. You know how opinion polls are a lagging index? As I wrote last night:

    "Until today I couldn't see what if anything could stop the Tory juggernaut. Labour despised in Labour heartlands. Get Brexit Done the only political slogan that people repeat.

    And then the boy on the hospital floor. All those Lab to Con switchers that Johnson needs for a majority. A boy lying sick on a hospital floor and the PM's incredible response to it might just be the thing that makes them think "hang on". And whats more the Tory machine thinks so too, hence the absurd dead cat story about the "assault" in Leeds. All Johnson had to say was "it isn't good enough, and thats why I've pledged to pour x gazillions into our NHS by building the boy a new hospital staffed by new doctors and nurses." The OBVIOUS response except that he knows its a big lie and forgot.

    Events, dear boy..."

    IF - and its a big if - the NHS story (the boy, the phone, fake news punch-gate etc) has resonated, then we are seeing in MRP the START of a big late swing. The Tories were winning their chunky majority on the back of Lab Leavers in red wall seats going straight to Johnson. If the NHS has restored them back in the red camp then that really is the Tory majority gone.

    Remember folks - Labour won't win more than a couple of seats. So the Tories will comfortably be the largest party regardless. So blue pants being trollied on here probably an over-reaction.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,935

    BluerBlue said:

    Wasn't this the bloke who didn't want his son's death politicised?
    Somehow CHB doesn't give a shit about such things if they help the Marxist cause...
    Did he really not want the death politicised? Or did he not want it used to support a specific political view?
    Well yes, it sounded to me more like he was annoyed that Boris came out against rehabilitation and in favour of longer imprisonment.

    Besides that I simply do not accept the argument that politics should not talk about such things because it disrepects the dead. It's precisely because people have been killed that politicians should talk about the issue. This whole "this is not the time" nonsense is exactly the crap that gun owners come out with everytime there is a mass shooting in the US, and I note that there has just been another mass shooting in the US. Thoughts and prayers, and don't ask awkward questions, will get the US and the UK nowhere when it comes to dealing with mass shootings, terrorism, knife crime and all the other ills we face.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited December 2019
    Is it just me or is the interactive map on the YouGov website showing the old results from two weeks ago?
  • There are some odd shifts compared with MRPv1: look at Kensington and at Caithness, Sutherland & Easterross:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109/photo/1

    Big shift in Edinburgh West, as well, which was a toss up last time. Doesn't tally with what I am hearing, but...
  • kle4 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Amazingly, it’s not in any way shape or form the fault of Conservatives.

    If you alienate and abuse people, rip up all constitutional norms and offer nothing other than a retreat to irrelevance for the country, you are going to struggle to get those people to vote for you. Just a thought you might want to chew on.
    Alright, the point is valid, but the way you present it makes it sound it impossible that the Tories could be the most popular party in the country, but they probably will be.
    Exactly - 43% of the vote is as much as Thatcher and Blair got in their biggest landslides. It's the idiots lending their votes to the far left that prevent the election of a government that can actually govern.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    edited December 2019

    There are some odd shifts compared with MRPv1: look at Kensington and at Caithness, Sutherland & Easterross:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1204523035212079109/photo/1

    Labour range is not fantastic.

    LD range terrible.

    What seat do they think is, best case scenario, potentially going to BXP?

    PC are all over the place.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    What makes you say that? The article is just quoting the MRP.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Here is what essentially yougov are finding.

    Reading East (Labour seat)
    Swing 1.5% to LAB

    Reading West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 1% to LAB

    Bolton West (Conservative seat)
    Swing 5.5% to CON

    Bolton NE (Labour seat)
    Swing 4.5% to CON

    Remain seats swing Labour, Leave seats swing Conservative a repeat of 2017 in England.

    It also has both Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan close.
    Essentially it's like Jeremy Corbyn has one again a sixth sence of what the MRP will show.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    No, we will tell ourselves we are still heading for the biggest majority and voteshare since Thatcher ...
    You mean the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher. There have been only two of those in the last 30 years!
  • I did say a few days back it felt like Labour had a chance in Warwick and Leamington. The MRP now has them slightly ahead. My LibDem vote could actually be very important!

    A vote for the Tories I’m afraid. Simple as that.

    That may well be the practical effect. But my vote is all I have. I cannot vote for a party that provides a safe space for racists.

  • kle4 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Any panicking Conservatives should reflect long and hard as to why, against the ideal opponent, they still are struggling to seal the deal. They might profitably ask themselves why they are so toxic.

    They won’t, of course.

    Same as 2017 - dim people in love with free stuff aided by gullible Remainers who don't realize that's it's their stuff that will be taken...
    Amazingly, it’s not in any way shape or form the fault of Conservatives.

    If you alienate and abuse people, rip up all constitutional norms and offer nothing other than a retreat to irrelevance for the country, you are going to struggle to get those people to vote for you. Just a thought you might want to chew on.
    Alright, the point is valid, but the way you present it makes it sound it impossible that the Tories could be the most popular party in the country, but they probably will be.
    Indeed. And contrary to @BluerBlue’s caricature, it will do so off the back of the less educated. But dim voters are fine if they’re in your own pen, I expect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    IDS still narrowly ahead 47% to 45% in Chingford and Woodford Green, turnout will be crucial so I will be heading down after morning telling in Epping to help GOTV for IDS

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
This discussion has been closed.