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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to vote tactically
With tactical voting likely to play a big part on Thursday YouGov has just published some new polling showing that overall a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
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That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?
How these people sleep at night I have no idea.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/04/icm-phone-poll-naming-clegg-has-him-holding-sheffield-hallam/
I'm playing Scrabble with Midge Ure.
I've got 4 letters left but they mean nothing to me.
O
V
N
R
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/06/with-so-much-potential-tactical-voting-the-overall-national-party-vote-shares-wont-mean-as-much/
It might be correct to say that a quarter of voters don’t have a first choice, only a last one ?
Or not.
Candidate or parties I like the most 57%.
Where does the 25% come from?
Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.
Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.
I'm sticking with Con +60.
At least until after 10pm tonight...
That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.
I think they have the question wrong. (Edit/ or the lead has the interpretation wrong)
It should be vote FOR the one you like the most OR vote AGAINST the one you dislike the most.
No need to thank me
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1204460345286385664
If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
I don't believe for a second that tactical voting is going to be significant. We hear the same stuff every time.
https://twitter.com/JohnPicton5/status/1204438749930819584
And those who have decided are pretty unlikely to switch back to Labour. Once you’ve made the calculation that Brexit>NHS>tribal loyalty it’ll take an awful lo to o come the anecdata we’re hearing about the visceral reaction to Corbyn
Yes it might shift the occasional voter, but not enough IMO to overcome the story of the past 4 weeks of a consistent gap and a more efficient Tory vote than before.
One substantial risk for the Conservatives is that if they are perceived to have a good chance of an overall majority, many such voters may cast their vote in a way that minimises the chances of that, even if they are no more enthused by Labour.
The old two party system provided stability when the parties were clustered coalitions that carried out internal compromises and then bid for power. Big binary issues like Brexit break that model and then to put the icing on the cake the Labour Party has been captured by extremist fanatics.
After this crisis of an election I'm going to get politically active as appalled centrists can't simply act like consumers who don't like the offerings. One problem is the fanatics are really dedicated.
I think 3/1 is poor value.
I got 5.1 at 3.30pm yesterday.
Its 3.95 now.
Profit taking by Tory Maj backers or another poll?
I think the former FWIW
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204451080899383296
So stop panicking.
This has been an excessively long campaign fought very largely on two issues about which the electorate has had years to come to a settled opinion: Brexit and the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. I interpret the near-stasis in the polls as evidence that the campaign effectively lasted about three weeks, up until late November, and that even within that period all that really happened was a bit of Remain and Leave consolidation around the two main parties (aided on the Leave side, of course, by the Brexit Party partial stand-down.)
I would therefore hazard a guess that most voters have indeed decided; and, moreover, that anyone still dithering at this late stage is likely not to bother to turn out - especially if the weather turns out to be as awful on Thursday as the forecast currently suggests. Heavy rain all over the country: a fittingly dismal climax to this vote.
Its 1.38 now
It's overwhelmingly just a snarkier way of saying the same thing.
I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.
These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)
NB that percentage is something like 40% of the electorate.
(just kidding, I couldn't watch that again
You can't have a "pile" of effluent. It's liquid.
In the past, I have voted enthusiastically (and campaigned for) the party I liked best. Now, I couldn't say that I like any of them.
The reason it is relevant here is, as I understand the question in the header, it just demonstrates that 25% of people aren't fans of any party (I'm actually surprised it isn't hight, but that's another point). I don't see how it indicates tactical voting.
My criteria would be what is the best shot at preventing either of these clowns achieving a majority. Which means voting tactically against the Conservative Party.
I think that plenty of us will be worrying at least a little about the former - it's the reason why the realistic range of results in this election still extends into Hung Parliament territory - but there's still no evidence of a collapse in the Tory lead in the polls, and the mood music from Scotland is broadly encouraging for the Blue Team.
Jeremy Corbyn could still end up in power, but a lot is going to need to go wrong for the Tories in a very short space of time for that to happen from this position.
Edit: I lie, it's half and half.
I have to admit when I voted it was with a heavy heart wishing that the Lib Dems were an option (they weren't as a vote for them around here is no different from not voting or spoiling the ballot).
Learn some basic Maths
Alistair states 1.36 is a 72% chance
Its 73.6% chance
0/10 see me
PB Tories gone mad!!
Blokes just don't come any lovelier than that.
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.
Two pieces of incisive analysis here this evening.
It why I come here.
In terms of calming nerves, it will be valerian pastilles, not valium pills