politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to

Hmm.

a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?

I've reported @BritainErects to Twitter. Don't expect anything will be done about it though.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do we have a reference point of similar questions being asked just before GE2017? If not, then it's impossible to interpret this polling.

Here's a good one from 2015...

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/04/icm-phone-poll-naming-clegg-has-him-holding-sheffield-hallam/

Oooh interesting.

Another good one from 2015

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/06/with-so-much-potential-tactical-voting-the-overall-national-party-vote-shares-wont-mean-as-much/

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?

I think Mike means 'not' rather than 'now'.

That would make sense, yes.
It might be correct to say that a quarter of voters don’t have a first choice, only a last one ?

Just had a look at some of Shadsy's odds - Corbyn is 3/1 to be PM by the new year. I think the current level of panic is justified.

Nigelb said:

a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?

Candidate or parties I like the most 57%.

Where does the 25% come from?

If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.

On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

Remainers more likely to vote tactically than Leavers? File under no shit, Sherlock.

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T

I'm playing Scrabble with Midge Ure.

I've got 4 letters left but they mean nothing to me.

O

V

N

R

If there's an "E" free somewhere on the board you might be able to play roven?

No need to thank me

Anorak said:

Is Nigel trying to stop his gravy time stopping?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1204460345286385664

Mad.

That question doesn't mean tactical voting, it can equally mean voters viewing the choice as the "lesser evil".

I don't believe for a second that tactical voting is going to be significant. We hear the same stuff every time.

AlastairMeeks said:

RobinWiggs said:

Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

I'm sticking with Con +60.

At least until after 10pm tonight...

While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.

Given that the choice for most people is one of cow dung or sheeps' droppings most people will be leaving it to the last second to make up their mind.

IanB2 said:

They got that out quick, I only did that survey this morning

Maybe they only asked you?

Philip_Thompson said:

That question doesn't mean tactical voting, it can equally mean voters viewing the choice as the "lesser evil".

I don't believe for a second that tactical voting is going to be significant. We hear the same stuff every time.

Usually it is significant.

AlastairMeeks said:

RobinWiggs said:

Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

I'm sticking with Con +60.

At least until after 10pm tonight...

While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.

I wonder whether that may be more prevalent in the South East? Here in the Midlands everyone I speak to know what they are going to do.

WhisperingOracle said:

Odd goings-on in Beaconsfield - I wonder if Grieve could be in with a shout.

https://twitter.com/JohnPicton5/status/1204438749930819584

Wasn't he miles off in the polling for that constituency?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Another poll skewed

Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm

The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.

Folk that still have time for Dave?

That too.

In the shrine* I have to David Cameron I have four things signed by him.

*Study but mostly a printer room.

Your body being one?

Alistair said:

1.36 to 1.46 is a change from 72% to 68%.

Get a fucking grip and learn some basic mathematics.

Well you've done it for me now so I dont have to. Cheers.

RobD said:

nico67 said:

It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.

And "satisfied after eating roast baby"

Cookie said:

Just had a look at some of Shadsy's odds - Corbyn is 3/1 to be PM by the new year. I think the current level of panic is justified.

For that even to be a possibility the Tories would have to fail to get around 310 seats I think (allows for DUP). Is that about right?

I think 3/1 is poor value.

RobD said:

Anorak said:

Is Nigel trying to stop his gravy time stopping?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1204460345286385664

Mad.

Not if it really is true he does not want to leave the EU. He probably only stood down candidates under pressure.

Why is NOM tightening so much

I got 5.1 at 3.30pm yesterday.

Its 3.95 now.

Profit taking by Tory Maj backers or another poll?

I think the former FWIW

eek said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobinWiggs said:

Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

I'm sticking with Con +60.

At least until after 10pm tonight...

While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.

Given that the choice for most people is one of cow dung or sheeps' droppings most people will be leaving it to the last second to make up their mind.

Some people, certainly. A large fraction of the electorate, probably not. Most people, certainly not.

This has been an excessively long campaign fought very largely on two issues about which the electorate has had years to come to a settled opinion: Brexit and the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. I interpret the near-stasis in the polls as evidence that the campaign effectively lasted about three weeks, up until late November, and that even within that period all that really happened was a bit of Remain and Leave consolidation around the two main parties (aided on the Leave side, of course, by the Brexit Party partial stand-down.)

I would therefore hazard a guess that most voters have indeed decided; and, moreover, that anyone still dithering at this late stage is likely not to bother to turn out - especially if the weather turns out to be as awful on Thursday as the forecast currently suggests. Heavy rain all over the country: a fittingly dismal climax to this vote.

Wasnt Con Maj 1.22 the n Monday?

Its 1.38 now

speedy2 said:

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204431903769550848
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1204451080899383296
So stop panicking.

YouGov need some faster computers.

KeithJenner said:

If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.

If 'party I like best' runs ABCD, it must be very rare that 'party I dislike the least' is anything other than ABCD too.

It's overwhelmingly just a snarkier way of saying the same thing.

Greeting from the Land of Fish! One of the interesting points from that Ashcroft survey was how "moments" that the media and political devotees set great store by in an election campaign don't seem to resonate with large swathes of the voting public. I did a bit of amateur-focus grouping at work today - about a dozen people aged 30s to 60s all pretty apolitical an d virtually all undecided how they would vote.

I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.

These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)

MarqueeMark said:

Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.

UpTheMariners said:

Greeting from the Land of Fish! One of the interesting points from that Ashcroft survey was how "moments" that the media and political devotees set great store by in an election campaign don't seem to resonate with large swathes of the voting public. I did a bit of amateur-focus grouping at work today - about a dozen people aged 30s to 60s all pretty apolitical an d virtually all undecided how they would vote.

I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.

These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)

I think you've found 12 people who are all very unlikely to vote...

RobinWiggs said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.

I'm going to steel myself and watch 2017 again.


(just kidding, I couldn't watch that again )

MarqueeMark said:

Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

Show off - I found it strange that the trailer was had an introduction explaining how it was filmed..

RobD said:

RobinWiggs said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.

I'm going to steel myself and watch 2017 again.


(just kidding, I couldn't watch that gain )

It took me fully 5 seconds to comprehend what the exit poll was saying, even though the Dimble was spelling it out.

AlastairMeeks said:

And the idea that this is an excessively long campaign is laughable. It couldn’t have been shorter.

It feels long though. How many more Get Brexit Dones and Privatising the NHS can you take?

Drutt said:

KeithJenner said:

If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.

If 'party I like best' runs ABCD, it must be very rare that 'party I dislike the least' is anything other than ABCD too.

It's overwhelmingly just a snarkier way of saying the same thing.

Possibly, but it says something about the way you are looking at it.

In the past, I have voted enthusiastically (and campaigned for) the party I liked best. Now, I couldn't say that I like any of them.

The reason it is relevant here is, as I understand the question in the header, it just demonstrates that 25% of people aren't fans of any party (I'm actually surprised it isn't hight, but that's another point). I don't see how it indicates tactical voting.

AlastairMeeks said:

Cookie said:

On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.

That is a very pertinent point.

My criteria would be what is the best shot at preventing either of these clowns achieving a majority. Which means voting tactically against the Conservative Party.

NorthofStoke said:

The voting system must change! We should be able to vote for something that is close to our beliefs not trying to game the system to stop something we hate.

The old two party system provided stability when the parties were clustered coalitions that carried out internal compromises and then bid for power. Big binary issues like Brexit break that model and then to put the icing on the cake the Labour Party has been captured by extremist fanatics.

After this crisis of an election I'm going to get politically active as appalled centrists can't simply act like consumers who don't like the offerings. One problem is the fanatics are really dedicated.

Great post. I know I should get politically active rather than just accept perpetual political disappointment, and to make any difference it probably needs to be in Labour or the Tories. There are many Labour and Tory politicians I admire but they tend to retiring or getting kicked out! It is time for a centrist entryist takeover of one of the main parties, which one, I am ambivalent. If it works for kippers and momentum why cant it work for centrists?

Time_to_Leave said:

Hmmm

Going off memory that looks like mostly a decrease in the unfavourable figure rather than a positive vote for, so not the end of the world.

Edit: I lie, it's half and half.

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Cookie said:

On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.

That offends me!

You can't have a "pile" of effluent. It's liquid.

I stand duly corrected. Delete pile, replace with slurry.

eek said:

UpTheMariners said:

Greeting from the Land of Fish! One of the interesting points from that Ashcroft survey was how "moments" that the media and political devotees set great store by in an election campaign don't seem to resonate with large swathes of the voting public. I did a bit of amateur-focus grouping at work today - about a dozen people aged 30s to 60s all pretty apolitical an d virtually all undecided how they would vote.

I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.

These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)

I think you've found 12 people who are all very unlikely to vote...

No - I think he/she`s found people who are fairly typical up and down the country and probably will vote.

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

3 hours and 38 minutes, to be precise?

It was 3hrs 48 mins when you posted.

PB Tories gone mad!!

Byronic said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Hmmm

Another pointer to HP

No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.

brokenwheel said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Hmmm

Going off memory that looks like mostly a decrease in the unfavourable figure rather than a positive vote for, so not the end of the world.

Edit: I lie, it's half and half.

Yes it was 22/60 last time. A 4 point swing

Tory majority back into 1.35 now....a little assurance

noneoftheabove said:

NorthofStoke said:

The voting system must change! We should be able to vote for something that is close to our beliefs not trying to game the system to stop something we hate.

The old two party system provided stability when the parties were clustered coalitions that carried out internal compromises and then bid for power. Big binary issues like Brexit break that model and then to put the icing on the cake the Labour Party has been captured by extremist fanatics.

After this crisis of an election I'm going to get politically active as appalled centrists can't simply act like consumers who don't like the offerings. One problem is the fanatics are really dedicated.

Great post. I know I should get politically active rather than just accept perpetual political disappointment, and to make any difference it probably needs to be in Labour or the Tories. There are many Labour and Tory politicians I admire but they tend to retiring or getting kicked out! It is time for a centrist entryist takeover of one of the main parties, which one, I am ambivalent. If it works for kippers and momentum why cant it work for centrists?

Just join the lib dems and work from the ground up it can’t be done from within labour or Tory they think they control their patch and will never change except to the extremes. There is no better satisfaction than beating a lazy complacent Tory councillor try it it’s enjoyable.

Sean_F said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Hmmm

-30 is still a long way behind -14.

It might be a lot closer after the LGI controversy, and I don't expect Corbyn has improved at all.

Sean_F said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Hmmm

-30 is still a long way behind -14.

For Alistair its 16 behind!!

Byronic said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Byronic said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Hmmm

Another pointer to HP

No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.

Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.

The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.

This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.

I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.

You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.