politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The data’s clear: The Tories are retaining more of their GE201
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You need to stop looking at that market, man. Go get a cup of tea.FrancisUrquhart said:Betfair drifting out again. Is there more polling coming today?
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I heard scum labour paid for taxis. The guy is on a cycle, ? Deliveroo??FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Plaid under 4.5 seats looking good value even at shorter price of 1/2 after that poll (ladbrokes and paddys).0
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He just wanted a pizza the action.melcf said:
I heard scum labour paid for taxis. The guy is on a cycle, ? Deliveroo??FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
They match in shape in Guildford and Esher but not in Finchley (special case) and Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.
Wimbledon is interesting. The constituency poll and anecdotes show Labour collapsing and LDs with a reasonable chance of taking the seat. But my model shows Labour as the competitor to the Tories. Where my model doesn't fit it is often because I'm too severe on the LDs in my assumptions of tactical voting for them, not too optimistic. It could be that LDs take more seats than I'm predicting (26).0 -
Depends if that is the incidentStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Not in Esher and Finchley, but plenty in Guildford and possibly in Wimbledon with tactical switching.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.0 -
Deleted because life's too short to demangle quotes.0
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To be fair, we all do it. People wanted Matt Hancock and/or his adviser to have been attacked by a braying mob because it would make Labour look bad and reinforce their views of the party. But a lot of us wanted Johnson to have been talking about controlling immigratin by people of colour last week when he wasn't. We need to ask ourselves some hard questions because this is not healthy.1
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Funny - I`m looking at the same thing. I got 4/6 at under 4.5 seats early in week.paulyork64 said:Plaid under 4.5 seats looking good value even at shorter price of 1/2 after that poll (ladbrokes and paddys).
1/2 might be a bit short for me.0 -
What tactical switching? What polling evidence of that is there?alb1on said:
Not in Esher and Finchley, but plenty in Guildford and possibly in Wimbledon with tactical switching.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.0 -
Mark will be unavailable to vote on Thursday. There is a casting call for Snow White.ydoethur said:
Mark Francois’ already got the vote.bigjohnowls said:
No - Stage 1 is Momentum Thugs punches the Health Secretaries Asst.BannedinnParis said:Stage 1 is "there was no punch".
@bbclaurak is a disgrace Oborne spot on about her being the minister for Tory Propaganda
When is Boris apologising to the 4 year old and his parents Stage 6.
Votes for 4 yr olds I reckon!!
Oh, sorry, you meant an actual age of four?1 -
Think it must be by the way Laura was backing away from her initial claim. Hoodwinked a bit by CCHQ perhaps.wooliedyed said:
Depends if that is the incidentStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
OK - I will give you my perspective based on my family’s experiences. It implies that you are not committed to life in this country or to its well being, that you are merely temporarily passing through, just staying for a short time. And people like my parents were not like that: my father volunteered to fight for this country when its very existence was in peril. He left his large Irish family; he lost his accent so as not to be categorised as a thick Paddy. My mother was Italian to her very bones but when she moved here to marry my father she committed herself to life here and stayed here throughout long years of widowhood, longer than her marriage because this was the place where she lived with the man she loved and had her children and grandchildren. It was part of her. It made her who she was. She was Italian - yes, very much so - but she was also someone who had been made and affected by life in Britain. She admired Britain and British values and had, in some ways, an old-fashioned view of them which gave the British rather more credit for them than British behaviour on occasion justified.Philip_Thompson said:
What's the stigma about being a guest?Cyclefree said:
Discussed at length on the previous thread. According to some, people who don’t get a British passport despite living here for decades, working, paying taxes, raising families etc, even fighting for this country are “guests”, if they’re lucky “honoured guests” and should not think of this as a stigma.AlastairMeeks said:
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
Yes if you've not a citizen here you are a guest of the country, that's always been the case and isn't new. That's why non-citizens don't get to vote here. Its also why British ex-pats living abroad who don't claim citizenship where they move to don't get to vote in the country they move to after emigrating too.
And when she became a widow her Italian family assumed she would go back to Italy, as if her life here was merely some passing phase. And she really hated that assumption - as if they did not understand that she had decided all those years ago to make her life in a new home. For good.
It is much harder - emotionally - than people realise to make the break from your childhood country to another one. Exciting, something new etc but you are also leaving your family group behind in ways which can be lonely because you no longer have quite the same shared experiences.
“Guests” simply does not describe the reality of such experiences or of the commitment involved. It is superficially polite but distancing; it subtly diminishes people.
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Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?2
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You will lose your money in Ynys Mon. Selecting a convicted criminal and then replacing him with a Kensington based sloane ranger with no constituency connections has handed a gift to PC.RobinWiggs said:
Need Ynys Mon as well. I’m on for a number of those (small bets sadly) at the start of the campaign.Andy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/
"According to the results, Labour lose Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Cardiff North, Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, and Alyn & Deeside to the Conservatives, who would also win back Brecon & Radnorshire, which they lost to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election earlier this year.
Plaid Cymru would lose Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats."
Great poll for the Blue.0 -
The R4 radio reporter on the spot said there was no violencewooliedyed said:
Depends if that is the incidentStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
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So...tonights debate for the yuff....anybody going to bother watching it?0
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No idea.Stocky said:
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
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The police have confirmed there was nothing reported . No punch , nothing .
But Laura K has managed to get a lie out there and refuses to apologize . I used to defend her but clearly she may aswell just work for no 10 now.0 -
I don't think Jonathan Lord is safe in Woking.alb1on said:
Not in Esher and Finchley, but plenty in Guildford and possibly in Wimbledon with tactical switching.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.0 -
Tories squeezing the last drops of blood out of Welsh Brexit?FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour is up 2% but the Conservatives are up 5% since the last poll two weeks agoAndy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/0 -
Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM0 -
A Tory dead cat to try and push Boris’s uncaring attempt to avoid a difficult personal story down the news agendaStark_Dawning said:
Think it must be by the way Laura was backing away from her initial claim. Hoodwinked a bit by CCHQ perhaps.wooliedyed said:
Depends if that is the incidentStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Could well be. Not sure the arrest bit can he true if thats it either which led me to ponder if further activity followed the video... if not it's a nothing burgerStark_Dawning said:
Think it must be by the way Laura was backing away from her initial claim. Hoodwinked a bit by CCHQ perhaps.wooliedyed said:
Depends if that is the incidentStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Very true. People are also getting obsessed with who or what is dominating the news cycle and does it favour their side. Boris has a bit of a nightmare with that man's phone, so his supporters pounce on something that they think will turn their opponents' glee into immediate despair.SouthamObserver said:To be fair, we all do it. People wanted Matt Hancock and/or his adviser to have been attacked by a braying mob because it would make Labour look bad and reinforce their views of the party. But a lot of us wanted Johnson to have been talking about controlling immigratin by people of colour last week when he wasn't. We need to ask ourselves some hard questions because this is not healthy.
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If people change their vote over Boris not looking at a phone, then this country is fucked.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM0 -
It won't change as many votes as Andrew Neil.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM0 -
I tipped it here at 4/6 (twice). Need both ynys mon and ceredigion to reach 5 unless they spring a surprise somewhere else.Stocky said:
Funny - I`m looking at the same thing. I got 4/6 at under 4.5 seats early in week.paulyork64 said:Plaid under 4.5 seats looking good value even at shorter price of 1/2 after that poll (ladbrokes and paddys).
1/2 might be a bit short for me.0 -
Stocky said:
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
A big question mark plus the paying of local activists to pile into the area, which parent would want their child used as a political football.0 -
Especially as less than 30 seconds later he does and apologises to the parentsBluerBlue said:
If people change their vote over Boris not looking at a phone, then this country is fucked.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM0 -
Look at WimbledonPhilip_Thompson said:
What tactical switching? What polling evidence of that is there?alb1on said:
Not in Esher and Finchley, but plenty in Guildford and possibly in Wimbledon with tactical switching.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.
2017 Con/Lab/LD 46%/35%/14%
Constituency poll 38%/23%/36%
Look at the switch to LDs.
LDs are at 3.45 on Betfair (Someone just took the 4.1). Still a value bet.0 -
It plays directly to Bozo’s already displayed weaknesses - lack of empathy, trying to dodge or evade anything difficult or uncomfortable, not wanting to deviate from his prepared sound bites whatever he is asked. Watching the clip you can see Bozo working this out as he s going along, although it was still bizarre that he kept the guy’s phone in his pocket for so long.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM
Unlikely to change the game given what looks like a secure lead, but it demonstrates once again that Bozo isn’t the campaigning asset he was cracked up to be.0 -
What your parents did was commit to this country and contribute to it hugely. They made it a better place and brought up a family that has also made this country better. Whatever others say, they were not guests and you are not the child of guests. I can only imagine how upset it must make you feel to hear them minimised in that way.Cyclefree said:
OK - I will give you my perspective based on my family’s experiences. It implies that you are not committed to life in this country or to its well being, that you are merely temporarily passing through, just staying for a short time. And people like my parents were not like that: my father volunteered to fight for this country when its very existence was in peril. He left his large Irish family; he lost his accent so as not to be categorised as a thick Paddy. My mother was Italian to her very bones but when she moved here to marry my father she committed herself to life here and stayed here throughout long years of widowhood, longer than her marriage because this was the place where she lived with the man she loved and had her children and grandchildren. It was part of her. It made her who she was. She was Italian - yes, very much so - but she was also someone who had been made and affected by life in Britain. She admired Britain and British values and had, in some ways, an old-fashioned view of them which gave the British rather more credit for them than British behaviour on occasion justified.Philip_Thompson said:
What's the stigma about being a guest?Cyclefree said:
Discussed s”, if they’re lucky “honoured guests” and should not think of this as a stigma.AlastairMeeks said:
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
Yes i too.
And when she became a widow her Italian family assumed she would go back to Italy, as if her life here was merely some passing phase. And she really hated that assumption - as if they did not understand that she had decided all those years ago to make her life in a new home. For good.
It is much harder - emotionally - than people realise to make the break from your childhood country to another one. Exciting, something new etc but you are also leaving your family group behind in ways which can be lonely because you no longer have quite the same shared experiences.
“Guests” simply does not describe the reality of such experiences or of the commitment involved. It is superficially polite but distancing; it subtly diminishes people.0 -
Instinct says the one in doubt is Ceredigion. They should hold the other three and take Ynys Môn.paulyork64 said:
I tipped it here at 4/6 (twice). Need both ynys mon and ceredigion to reach 5 unless they spring a surprise somewhere else.Stocky said:
Funny - I`m looking at the same thing. I got 4/6 at under 4.5 seats early in week.paulyork64 said:Plaid under 4.5 seats looking good value even at shorter price of 1/2 after that poll (ladbrokes and paddys).
1/2 might be a bit short for me.
It may be so close as to be decided by which modules at Aberystwyth University finish teaching on Wednesday and which on Friday.0 -
You're too young to remember 'Jennifer's Ear' I take it.Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
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I'm sat in Wimbledon right now. Not enough LD switchers in my field of view, although certainly not as comfortable as the Tories would like. Earlier on in the campaign definitely a LD target.Barnesian said:
Look at WimbledonPhilip_Thompson said:
What tactical switching? What polling evidence of that is there?alb1on said:
Not in Esher and Finchley, but plenty in Guildford and possibly in Wimbledon with tactical switching.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.
2017 Con/Lab/LD 46%/35%/14%
Constituency poll 38%/23%/36%
Look at the switch to LDs.
LDs are at 3.45 on Betfair (Someone just took the 4.1). Still a value bet.0 -
Who exactly could be a campaigning asset in an age of gotcha "journalists", social media emotionalism, and Momentum flash mobs?IanB2 said:
It plays directly to Bozo’s already displayed weaknesses - lack of empathy, trying to dodge or evade anything difficult or uncomfortable, not wanting to deviate from his prepared sound bites whatever he is asked. Watching the clip you can see Bozo working this out as he s going along, although it was still bizarre that he kept the guy’s phone in his pocket for so long.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM
Unlikely to change the game given what looks like a secure lead, but it demonstrates once again that Bozo isn’t the campaigning asset he was cracked up to be.0 -
She'll need a new job after the Tories abolish the BBC.nico67 said:The police have confirmed there was nothing reported . No punch , nothing .
But Laura K has managed to get a lie out there and refuses to apologize . I used to defend her but clearly she may aswell just work for no 10 now.0 -
"Do you know what it's like to clean-up your mother's piss?"Stark_Dawning said:
You're too young to remember 'Jennifer's Ear' I take it.Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
0 -
Me too, like you at 4/6.Stocky said:
Funny - I`m looking at the same thing. I got 4/6 at under 4.5 seats early in week.paulyork64 said:Plaid under 4.5 seats looking good value even at shorter price of 1/2 after that poll (ladbrokes and paddys).
1/2 might be a bit short for me.
Given both Con and Lab strengthening further, it is harder to see Plaid coming through in Ynys Mon now. Plaid should be favourites in Ceredigion given that the LDs are going backwards in Wales since October. I would say the odds of Plaid winning 5 or more are something like: 0.35 (chance of winning Ynys Mon) x 0.8 (chance of winning Ceredigion if polls are good enough for them to win Ynys Mon) = 0.28.
So odds of about 2/5 on Plaid getting under 5 would seem to be a fair price.0 -
Electoral calculus has Vale of Clywd as a labour win, with 45% of votes vs 37% for Cons
With a 64:36 percent probability. Pretty high I should think
So what next? Tories to take Merthyr0 -
Having seen the video it was just a demonstration with angry words but no assaultIanB2 said:
The R4 radio reporter on the spot said there was no violencewooliedyed said:
Depends if that is the incidentStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1204091610843226112
Laura needs to back track her report to be fair0 -
NEW THREAD!0
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Is that the right incident and if so isn't the real story that the heartless bar steward Matt Hancock drove off leaving his spad stranded in a strange northern town?wooliedyed said:
Could well be. Not sure the arrest bit can he true if thats it either which led me to ponder if further activity followed the video... if not it's a nothing burgerStark_Dawning said:
Think it must be by the way Laura was backing away from her initial claim. Hoodwinked a bit by CCHQ perhaps.wooliedyed said:
Depends if that is the incidentStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
So basically Tory aides told Laura K Matt Hancock’s aide had been punched and before confirming the story she goes on twitter and repeats that .
0 -
It's the one consolation I have if and when the Conservatives win the election on Thursday.IanB2 said:
It plays directly to Bozo’s already displayed weaknesses - lack of empathy, trying to dodge or evade anything difficult or uncomfortable, not wanting to deviate from his prepared sound bites whatever he is asked. Watching the clip you can see Bozo working this out as he s going along, although it was still bizarre that he kept the guy’s phone in his pocket for so long.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM
Unlikely to change the game given what looks like a secure lead, but it demonstrates once again that Bozo isn’t the campaigning asset he was cracked up to be.
Johnson is going to get found out. He's a schmuck. If Labour get their act together, which is a big if with Momentum, then it will pave the way for a 1997 landslide next time.0 -
Is this likely to shift any seats? Sorry, I meant in comparison to the previous poll. Wales could well prove to be the 2017 Scotland in this election. 8 gains forecast.MarqueeMark said:
Tories squeezing the last drops of blood out of Welsh Brexit?FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour is up 2% but the Conservatives are up 5% since the last poll two weeks agoAndy_JS said:Lab 40%
Con 37%
PC 10%
LD 6%
BRX 5%
Grn 1%
Oth 1%
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-12-09/new-poll-shows-conservatives-set-to-gain-welsh-seats-as-labour-s-lead-is-cut/0 -
Cue gasps of disappointment from BJ's aspiring martyrs.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Yes. Thank you.SouthamObserver said:
What your parents did was commit to this country and contribute to it hugely. They made it a better place and brought up a family that has also made this country better. Whatever others say, they were not guests and you are not the child of guests. I can only imagine how upset it must make you feel to hear them minimised in that way.Cyclefree said:
OK - I will give you my perspective based on my family’s experiences. It implies that you are not committed to life in this country or to its well being, that you are merely temporarily passing through, just staying for a short time. And people like my parents were not like that: my father volunteered to fight for this country when its very existence was in peril. He left his large Irish family; he lost his accent so as not to be categorised as a thick Paddy. My mother was Italian to her very bones but when she moved here to marry my father she committed herself to life here and stayed here throughout long years of widowhood, longer than her marriage because this was the place where she lived with the man she loved and had her children and grandchildren. It was part of her. It made her who she was. She was Italian - yes, very much so - but she was also someone who had been made and affected by life in Britain. She admired Britain and British values and had, in some ways, an old-fashioned view of them which gave the British rather more credit for them than British behaviour on occasion justified.Philip_Thompson said:
What's the stigma about being a guest?Cyclefree said:
Discussed s”, if they’re lucky “honoured guests” and should not think of this as a stigma.AlastairMeeks said:
It will no doubt be effective. Those Conservative partisans who affect to care about racism when they perceive it elsewhere, take note. If you have any principles, this is your chance to demonstrate them.
Yes i too.
And when she became a widow her Italian family assumed she would go back to Italy, as if her life here was merely some passing phase. And she really hated that assumption - as if they did not understand that she had decided all those years ago to make her life in a new home. For good.
It is much harder - emotionally - than people realise to make the break from your childhood country to another one. Exciting, something new etc but you are also leaving your family group behind in ways which can be lonely because you no longer have quite the same shared experiences.
“Guests” simply does not describe the reality of such experiences or of the commitment involved. It is superficially polite but distancing; it subtly diminishes people.
0 -
So half of almost none, then?wooliedyed said:
It won't change as many votes as Andrew Neil.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM
0 -
I'm certainly not too young!Stark_Dawning said:
You're too young to remember 'Jennifer's Ear' I take it.Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
0 -
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
0 -
Why would parents use a child like this I spent 7 hrs recently in a very busy A&E with a broken hip at no point did I see people lying on the floor and the staff were amazing I have private health insurance and they persuaded me to stay with them which I did A&E unfortunately seems to be full of people who really should not be there.2
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The Wimbledon poll was conducted a month ago, before even the candidates were finalised. Nationally the LDs have gone backwards since, while Con and Lab have strengthened.Barnesian said:
Look at WimbledonPhilip_Thompson said:
What tactical switching? What polling evidence of that is there?alb1on said:
Not in Esher and Finchley, but plenty in Guildford and possibly in Wimbledon with tactical switching.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.
2017 Con/Lab/LD 46%/35%/14%
Constituency poll 38%/23%/36%
Look at the switch to LDs.
LDs are at 3.45 on Betfair (Someone just took the 4.1). Still a value bet.
What is your model saying for North Norfolk?0 -
Paddys havent moved their 7/1 Cons most seats in Wales since that poll.ydoethur said:
Instinct says the one in doubt is Ceredigion. They should hold the other three and take Ynys Môn.paulyork64 said:
I tipped it here at 4/6 (twice). Need both ynys mon and ceredigion to reach 5 unless they spring a surprise somewhere else.Stocky said:
Funny - I`m looking at the same thing. I got 4/6 at under 4.5 seats early in week.paulyork64 said:Plaid under 4.5 seats looking good value even at shorter price of 1/2 after that poll (ladbrokes and paddys).
1/2 might be a bit short for me.
It may be so close as to be decided by which modules at Aberystwyth University finish teaching on Wednesday and which on Friday.0 -
A theory.
The Conservatives are doing their best to have a really crap finale. This comes on what I would consider Labour's worst week.
My theory is that whenever any of the parties appear in the news their votes drop away
That's where we are at in this election. They're all shit.0 -
Well said. Many, many but not all of the millions of EU citizens now living here will feel the same. The government really should have been clearer and more open handed in confirming their status. I hope this is a priority after the election but it should not have waited for that.SouthamObserver said:
What your parents did was commit to this country and contribute to it hugely. They made it a better place and brought up a family that has also made this country better. Whatever others say, they were not guests and you are not the child of guests. I can only imagine how upset it must make you feel to hear them minimised in that way.Cyclefree said:
OK - I will give you my perspective based on my family’s experiences. It implies that you are not committed to life in this country or to its well being, that you are merely temporarily passing through, just staying for a short time. And people like my parents were not like that: my father volunteered to fight for this country when its very existence was in peril. He left his large Irish family; he lost his accent so as not to be categorised as a thick Paddy. My mother was Italian to her very bones but when she moved here to marry my father she committed herself to life here and stayed here throughout long years of widowhood, longer than her marriage because this was the place where she lived with the man she loved and had her children and grandchildren. It was part of her. It made her who she was. She was Italian - yes, very much so - but she was also someone who had been made and affected by life in Britain. She admired Britain and British values and had, in some ways, an old-fashioned view of them which gave the British rather more credit for them than British behaviour on occasion justified.Philip_Thompson said:Cyclefree said:
And when she became a widow her Italian family assumed she would go back to Italy, as if her life here was merely some passing phase. And she really hated that assumption - as if they did not understand that she had decided all those years ago to make her life in a new home. For good.
It is much harder - emotionally - than people realise to make the break from your childhood country to another one. Exciting, something new etc but you are also leaving your family group behind in ways which can be lonely because you no longer have quite the same shared experiences.
“Guests” simply does not describe the reality of such experiences or of the commitment involved. It is superficially polite but distancing; it subtly diminishes people.1 -
"Corbynista" is yet another word which pollutes our political discourse.Henrietta said:
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
0 -
Thank you for that. People can have a lot of commitment but I still think there is nothing derogatory or presumptive in the word guest. If I use it I don't mean anything negative by it or any implication of a lack of commitment.Cyclefree said:OK - I will give you my perspective based on my family’s experiences. It implies that you are not committed to life in this country or to its well being, that you are merely temporarily passing through, just staying for a short time. And people like my parents were not like that: my father volunteered to fight for this country when its very existence was in peril. He left his large Irish family; he lost his accent so as not to be categorised as a thick Paddy. My mother was Italian to her very bones but when she moved here to marry my father she committed herself to life here and stayed here throughout long years of widowhood, longer than her marriage because this was the place where she lived with the man she loved and had her children and grandchildren. It was part of her. It made her who she was. She was Italian - yes, very much so - but she was also someone who had been made and affected by life in Britain. She admired Britain and British values and had, in some ways, an old-fashioned view of them which gave the British rather more credit for them than British behaviour on occasion justified.
And when she became a widow her Italian family assumed she would go back to Italy, as if her life here was merely some passing phase. And she really hated that assumption - as if they did not understand that she had decided all those years ago to make her life in a new home. For good.
It is much harder - emotionally - than people realise to make the break from your childhood country to another one. Exciting, something new etc but you are also leaving your family group behind in ways which can be lonely because you no longer have quite the same shared experiences.
“Guests” simply does not describe the reality of such experiences or of the commitment involved. It is superficially polite but distancing; it subtly diminishes people.
I assume your mother always had the option to take citizenship of this country, if she wanted it? That would have formally made her British with the rights and responsibilities that entails. She chose not to do so from what I understand? That's her choice and I fully respect it.
People should make the choices that suit them and there is no right or wrong answer.0 -
Although the LDs have gone backwards nationally they have gone forward in their target seats and stopped competing in Lab/Con marginals which is where they have gone backwards. It is important to understand this dynamic if you want to make sense of what is happening.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The Wimbledon poll was conducted a month ago, before even the candidates were finalised. Nationally the LDs have gone backwards since, while Con and Lab have strengthened.Barnesian said:
Look at WimbledonPhilip_Thompson said:
What tactical switching? What polling evidence of that is there?alb1on said:
Not in Esher and Finchley, but plenty in Guildford and possibly in Wimbledon with tactical switching.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, they don't match your model at all. We see the LDs going up as forecast but not by enough to take the seats.Barnesian said:
Look at the constituency polls in Esher, Finchley, Guildford, Wimbledon.Philip_Thompson said:
Some of the Remain vote is going to Labour, about half the Remain vote. Not all of it. Not much evidence of the reverse in Con/LD marginals. Especially when the LDs were seeking to call seats with over 10k votes to overhaul .Barnesian said:
It's very good news. It means the remain vote is not being split in Con/Lab marginals but going to Labour. It's the reverse in Con/LD marginals but there are far fewer of them, hence the reduction in LD national vote.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.wills66 said:
.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
WillS.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.
2017 Con/Lab/LD 46%/35%/14%
Constituency poll 38%/23%/36%
Look at the switch to LDs.
LDs are at 3.45 on Betfair (Someone just took the 4.1). Still a value bet.
What is your model saying for North Norfolk?
My model shows LDs holding North Norfolk There is no constituency poll to compare to. We'll see.0 -
A dogwhistle? But Johnsonistas merely believe the Rhodesian South African Australian "points system" is objectively and technically superior for a modern economy! And when he refers to "piccaninnies", "bumboys", and "letterboxes", and pens a poem about a man from Ankara sowing wild oats "with the help of a goat", the Leader is engaging in some character-building joshing, that's all! Only "snowflakes" and "losers" would object!AlastairMeeks said:A
No, he’s moved on to telling people who’ve lived here for decades that this is not their home.isam said:
You don't still think he said "People of Colour" do you?!AlastairMeeks said:
No comment on Boris Johnson’s dog whistling racism?BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:
0 -
We are 72 hours from the end of polling and the stakes couldn’t be higher.SouthamObserver said:To be fair, we all do it. People wanted Matt Hancock and/or his adviser to have been attacked by a braying mob because it would make Labour look bad and reinforce their views of the party. But a lot of us wanted Johnson to have been talking about controlling immigratin by people of colour last week when he wasn't. We need to ask ourselves some hard questions because this is not healthy.
People are desperate.0 -
But the news cycle is dominated non stop on the New Zealand tragedy.Mysticrose said:A theory.
The Conservatives are doing their best to have a really crap finale. This comes on what I would consider Labour's worst week.
My theory is that whenever any of the parties appear in the news their votes drop away
That's where we are at in this election. They're all shit.0 -
Stop lyingfunkhauser said:Stocky said:
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
A big question mark plus the paying of local activists to pile into the area, which parent would want their child used as a political football.0 -
You've lost itHenrietta said:
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
0 -
0
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It was a left-wing rent a mob sent to harass and intimidateTheuniondivvie said:
Cue gasps of disappointment from BJ's aspiring martyrs.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
dawn21 said:
Why would parents use a child like this I spent 7 hrs recently in a very busy A&E with a broken hip at no point did I see people lying on the floor and the staff were amazing I have private health insurance and they persuaded me to stay with them which I did A&E unfortunately seems to be full of people who really should not be there.
My GP made a similar comment that an average of 20% were really ill & needed to be there & were being blocked by people that couldn't be bothered to sign up to a GP or ask a Pharmacy for treatment for a cold plus of course the health tourists.0 -
From my experience A&E is perfectly fast for those who actually need to be there.0
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bigjohnowls said:
Stop lyingfunkhauser said:Stocky said:
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
A big question mark plus the paying of local activists to pile into the area, which parent would want their child used as a political football.
I said a big question mark, there is already evidence of taxis being paid for the Labour rent-a-mob.0 -
Turns out the punch was a lie. Oh dear.0
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I love the long room in that building that all the student rooms open onto...Andrew said:
Aberystwyth Uni has some student accommodation named …. yep, you guessed it. Should ask for a donation, would be the Alexandra Hall Hall Alexandra Hall.TrèsDifficile said:I just found out from facebook that I went to the same school as Alexandra Hall Hall. I've made the suggestion on their facebook page of naming a big room after her (the Hall Hall Hall)
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Have you been hacked by @bbclaurak HYUFDHYUFD said:
It was a left-wing rent a mob sent to harass and intimidateTheuniondivvie said:
Cue gasps of disappointment from BJ's aspiring martyrs.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1204091610843226112
Evidence from Leeds would suggest otherwise on the rent a mob front, unless of course you are referring to Tory Social Media rent a mob.
It would suggest the Tories are lying again to try and divert from Jester refusal to give a fuck about a 4 year olds plight
What punch what arrest what a load of Tory lies0 -
Look North from Leeds really bad for Tories.
Jester refusing to look at poor 4 yr old followed by Tories lying about non existent punches and arrests0 -
Tumbleweed. Just like the Leave campaign.AlastairMeeks said:
No comment on Boris Johnson’s dog whistling racism?BluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:
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Yes, another scam made up by Labour, which backfired big time.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm certainly not too young!Stark_Dawning said:
You're too young to remember 'Jennifer's Ear' I take it.Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
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How do you get a pushbike in a Taxi.funkhauser said:bigjohnowls said:
Stop lyingfunkhauser said:Stocky said:
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
A big question mark plus the paying of local activists to pile into the area, which parent would want their child used as a political football.
I said a big question mark, there is already evidence of taxis being paid for the Labour rent-a-mob.
Its just more lies give it up0 -
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the word 'guest' and Cyclefree is just trying to make political capital out of this. If immigrants wish to be treated as citizens then they can get British citizenship. If they do not wish to do this then they have no need to complain or demand they are treated as equals. This is the rule in practically every country on earth including the rest of the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
Thank you for that. People can have a lot of commitment but I still think there is nothing derogatory or presumptive in the word guest. If I use it I don't mean anything negative by it or any implication of a lack of commitment.
I assume your mother always had the option to take citizenship of this country, if she wanted it? That would have formally made her British with the rights and responsibilities that entails. She chose not to do so from what I understand? That's her choice and I fully respect it.
People should make the choices that suit them and there is no right or wrong answer.
What I would say is that, as someone has already suggested on here, we should make the cost of citizenship the same as that of getting a passport so that money is no deterrent. But otherwise there is nothing wrong at all with differentiating between citizens and guests. And I say that as someone who has spent much of their life working as a guest - and paying taxes - in other countries.0 -
You on the singing ginger alreadyAve_it said:
Agreed, the enemy within. We must destroy these extremists. LAB and SNP togetherBluerBlue said:
Labour are utter, utter scum.FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL, not another Scottish Tory surge KlaxonRobD said:
Things also looking good for the Blues in Scotland.Big_G_NorthWales said:Implied Seats:
LAB: 20 (-8)
CON: 16 (+8)
PLC: 3 (-1)
LDM: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ GE2017. https://t.co/In0evS0Dua
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Another short lived troll popped up to stir stuff up at election time.Banterman said:
You've lost itHenrietta said:
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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Liar, even LauraK admits she was wrong now.HYUFD said:
It was a left-wing rent a mob sent to harass and intimidateTheuniondivvie said:
Cue gasps of disappointment from BJ's aspiring martyrs.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
If you bothered to scroll down you would see for yourself, wowee one person turned up on a push bike ,definite proof!bigjohnowls said:
How do you get a pushbike in a Taxi.funkhauser said:bigjohnowls said:
Stop lyingfunkhauser said:Stocky said:
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
A big question mark plus the paying of local activists to pile into the area, which parent would want their child used as a political football.
I said a big question mark, there is already evidence of taxis being paid for the Labour rent-a-mob.
Its just more lies give it up
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Can this heartwarming set of observations (the NHS being for lazy proles, foreign scroungers, and people who can't afford to buy pills at Boots, who all block the real deservers) go into an addendum to the Tory manifesto please?funkhauser said:
My GP made a similar comment that an average of 20% were really ill & needed to be there & were being blocked by people that couldn't be bothered to sign up to a GP or ask a Pharmacy for treatment for a cold plus of course the health tourists.dawn21 said:Why would parents use a child like this I spent 7 hrs recently in a very busy A&E with a broken hip at no point did I see people lying on the floor and the staff were amazing I have private health insurance and they persuaded me to stay with them which I did A&E unfortunately seems to be full of people who really should not be there.
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Made a bit of money.
NOM at 5.1 half an hour after ICM.
cashed out at 4.60 -
You are surprised, it is the state propaganda unitStark_Dawning said:
That can in no way be described as a punch. What was Laura thinking of describing it as such?FrancisUrquhart said:
Media not having a good election. We had people of talent, now this.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Henrietta said:
Can this heartwarming set of observations go in an addendum to the Tory manifesto please?funkhauser said:
My GP made a similar comment that an average of 20% were really ill & needed to be there & were being blocked by people that couldn't be bothered to sign up to a GP or ask a Pharmacy for treatment for a cold plus of course the health tourists.dawn21 said:Why would parents use a child like this I spent 7 hrs recently in a very busy A&E with a broken hip at no point did I see people lying on the floor and the staff were amazing I have private health insurance and they persuaded me to stay with them which I did A&E unfortunately seems to be full of people who really should not be there.
Just the observation of my local GP,but hell what would he know,he's only been in the health service for 30 years.0 -
It is already and royallyBluerBlue said:
If people change their vote over Boris not looking at a phone, then this country is fucked.Byronic said:Boris' foolish reaction to the photo is 2nd most read article on BBC
Hard to know how this will play. Definitely not good for the Tories, but is it a game changer?
In a close election it might shift a few seats, taking us to HP from OM0 -
Hardly. Been posting on PB under a few lost identities since 2006 old chapRichard_Tyndall said:
Another short lived troll popped up to stir stuff up at election time.Banterman said:
You've lost itHenrietta said:
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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Stop digging seen whole incident no punch no mob no arrests.funkhauser said:
If you bothered to scroll down you would see for yourself, wowee one person turned up on a push bike ,definite proof!bigjohnowls said:
How do you get a pushbike in a Taxi.funkhauser said:bigjohnowls said:
Stop lyingfunkhauser said:Stocky said:
Do we know whether the parents are Labour activists?Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever happened to the rule that the name, photo and medical condition of a child, let alone a sick child, is not plastered all over the media?
A big question mark plus the paying of local activists to pile into the area, which parent would want their child used as a political football.
I said a big question mark, there is already evidence of taxis being paid for the Labour rent-a-mob.
Its just more lies give it up
Johnson no empathy for 4 yr old is the story despite Tory invention of things that didnt happen0 -
How low can the Tories stoop , the lapdogs like HYFUD enraged and wanting troops on the streets for just another Tory lie.bigjohnowls said:
Liar, even LauraK admits she was wrong now.HYUFD said:
It was a left-wing rent a mob sent to harass and intimidateTheuniondivvie said:
Cue gasps of disappointment from BJ's aspiring martyrs.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12040916108432261120 -
Sorry Banterman it was directed at Henrietta not you.Banterman said:
Hardly. Been posting on PB under a few lost identities since 2006 old chapRichard_Tyndall said:
Another short lived troll popped up to stir stuff up at election time.Banterman said:
You've lost itHenrietta said:
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
0 -
The guy was expressing contempt for the parents of a sick child who allowed his less than wonderful treatment to be brought to the attention of the prime minister, as if it's a terrible anti-social crime to do that. Why shouldn't the prime minister be held to account?Richard_Tyndall said:
Another short lived troll popped up to stir stuff up at election time.Banterman said:
You've lost itHenrietta said:
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
0 -
WOW
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Preference for Prime Minister:
Boris Johnson: 39%
Jeremy Corbyn: 32%
via
@BMGResearch0 -
Do you know, today is the first time i actually believe Jester could still blow this.
WTF was he thinking in that ITV interview.
If i were him i would develop Tory man flu (like normal man flu apart from its a total lie) until Friday.
20-40 maj nailed on
Any more days like today possible NOM0 -
No problem! You sir, are a very fine poster of excellent thinking over many years, who obviously doesn't forget his passwords like I do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Sorry Banterman it was directed at Henrietta not you.Banterman said:
Hardly. Been posting on PB under a few lost identities since 2006 old chapRichard_Tyndall said:
Another short lived troll popped up to stir stuff up at election time.Banterman said:
You've lost itHenrietta said:
Maybe they only bred in the first place so they could help a foreign power by disrespecting and embarrassing their Tory betters? Well, that and getting a council flat. Horsewhipping is too good for them! But seriously, why do you use the word "Corbynista"? Labour hasn't got a leader cult; most people who intend to vote Labour aren't doing it because of any feelings they have about the party's leader; and "-ista" suggests a foreign influence whereas the party is British through and through. Who do you think Shelley and Blake would be rooting for in this election? Why not go the whole hog and refer to the ИHS?Banterman said:
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistasJason said:The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
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Do you actually ever go back and read what you post on here? Seriously, you appear unhinged at times.bigjohnowls said:
Have you been hacked by @bbclaurak HYUFDHYUFD said:
It was a left-wing rent a mob sent to harass and intimidateTheuniondivvie said:
Cue gasps of disappointment from BJ's aspiring martyrs.SouthamObserver said:
The 100 protestors turned out to be three or four. The punch turned out to be a small collission because the adviser was not looking where he was going. Someone on the Tory side has spun that into a braying mob committing a full-scale assault - and the broadcast media bought it lock, stock and barrel!!nico67 said:
It’s on video . There was no punch , the Tories put out a lie which they fed to Laura K and she did her duty as a Tory shill.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you provide evidence of thatnico67 said:There was no punch and Laura K is now just a mouthpiece for no 10 .
She now just repeats anything she’s told before confirming the story is true .
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1204091610843226112
Evidence from Leeds would suggest otherwise on the rent a mob front, unless of course you are referring to Tory Social Media rent a mob.
It would suggest the Tories are lying again to try and divert from Jester refusal to give a fuck about a 4 year olds plight
What punch what arrest what a load of Tory lies0
