"Back to Boris Johnson and his questions. He's asked about the future of the BBC licence fee and surprises those listening saying he believes the whole idea of funding the BBC through a licence fee should be looked at.
"It is effectively a tax," he says."
So he says looked at. Nothing definitive.
If he wins, let's hope this is the leverage to force BBC to pay for all Over 75s.
Ludicrous. Why should Over 75 taxpayers get a free licence when younger citizens in far worse financial strait do not? I have no problem with Over 75s getting a free licence on a means tested basis of some sort but it is ridiculous to be giving hand outs to those relatively well off.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...
If -- though both Cummings and Banks acknowledged their Leave votes were more in the fashion of NOTA protest votes than considered verdicts on the EU. Is Boris NOTA in this election? Perhaps he is, as he is running against Parliament and most of the rest of the Cabinet is locked into the 2017 cupboard.
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Tories currently nervous. Last time they were in retreat (although the last week was a bit calmer tbf).
I am sure the Maomentum tw@tter-sphere is firing up retweets galore of Boris photo clip.
I think he is going to need to find some sort of response.
No winter crisis, quick lets find something else instead. A single child in a single hospital in the world's largest employer has had a poor experience.
Cancer survival rates have actually improved quite a bit over the last fifteen years in the NHS. They may be low by western standards, but they were much lower in the past.
The quality of some care, especially GP level is of a much lower standard than what would be expected in insurance incentivised systems. See how an nhs dentist and a private dentist operate. Every procedure, screen and test is an income generator and pushed like an extended warranty in PC World.
Its only more recently that GPs are also now extensively incentivised for screening, preventative and early diagnosis programmes. Bowel cancer, breast cancer and prostate cancers are now screened on a much wider basis than the past.
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
It does feel very different, but I have said from day one that this Tory strategy of wooing Northern lifelong Labour supporters is very risky and uncertain.
iirc, the last day of campaigning saw at least one CON on here come back saying it was worse out than even the polls had suggested and I had at least one other, on a different media, saying the same at the other end of the country.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
What do you expect if you run a campaign based on tactical voting, standing candidates down and a negative message of Stop the Tories, vote for anyone except us and the Tories - that message will drive your voters to Labour tactically.
Never mind, a great opportunity lost for LibDems to make real headway. When they finally (and probably too late) learn that a party to the left of centre can harvest most votes from another but unpopular party of the left they could eventually make some progress.
The double whammy is that not just are the Tories keeping more Remainers but those they lose are going mainly to the Lib Dems.
While Labour are not just losing more Leavers, more of them going direct to the Tories.
True. And, the Conservatives can probably afford such losses better than Labour, as they tend to be in affluent seats with very large Conservative majorities. If the Tory lead in Esher & Walton is cut from 23,000 to 5,000, it's still a Conservative seat in the Commons.
Sounds like we will have a big tory majority combined with loads of marginals for them to defend in 2024. The difficulty for the tories at that election will be half the marginals will be in affluent seats and half in post industrial struggling towns. I fail to see how they keep those parts of their coalition together.
The Blair approach? Win big enough first up to last for three terms?
I really hope not.
It's an unusual situation given the Tories have won in government for 9 years one way or another and a big win should not really happen. If it does it might be that big majority is not the firewall that Blairs was given the letters was first term.
It's amazing that the tories have managed to disassociate themselves from the last nine years whilst the LibDems have failed quite miserably to extricate themselves from culpability.
It was great how Cameron managed to take the credit for everything that went right and lib dems got blame for everything that went wrong.
Another way of looking at it is that the Conservatives enthusiastically embraced Coalition government & made a determined effort to make it work. They also didn't shy away from taking responsibility for the tough decisions that needed to be taken as well as taking credit for the Coalition's successes.
The Libdems on the other hand spent the entire five years like rabbits in headlights, constantly apologising for their part in any of the early tough decisions. So much so, that by the time positive signs were really appearing in the economy & employment the damage was done because the Libdems had allowed themselves to become perceived by the public as unwilling hostages to fortune rather than a strong and stable Coalition partner.
iirc, the last day of campaigning saw at least one CON on here come back saying it was worse out than even the polls had suggested and I had at least one other, on a different media, saying the same at the other end of the country.
Wasn't that David Herdson? Who famously got it bang on?
If the threat is a Boris visit I would have thought it should be 'Don't visit Richmond, or the dog gets it'. Boris is widely despised in the seat, not just because of Brexit but because of his Heathrow lies. Goldsmith is, at least, respected for his Heathrow stance.
The double whammy is that not just are the Tories keeping more Remainers but those they lose are going mainly to the Lib Dems.
While Labour are not just losing more Leavers, more of them going direct to the Tories.
True. And, the Conservatives can probably afford such losses better than Labour, as they tend to be in affluent seats with very large Conservative majorities. If the Tory lead in Esher & Walton is cut from 23,000 to 5,000, it's still a Conservative seat in the Commons.
Sounds like we will have a big tory majority combined with loads of marginals for them to defend in 2024. The difficulty for the tories at that election will be half the marginals will be in affluent seats and half in post industrial struggling towns. I fail to see how they keep those parts of their coalition together.
The Blair approach? Win big enough first up to last for three terms?
I really hope not.
It's an unusual situation given the Tories have won in government for 9 years one way or another and a big win should not really happen. If it does it might be that big majority is not the firewall that Blairs was given the letters was first term.
It's amazing that the tories have managed to disassociate themselves from the last nine years whilst the LibDems have failed quite miserably to extricate themselves from culpability.
It was great how Cameron managed to take the credit for everything that went right and lib dems got blame for everything that went wrong.
Another way of looking at it is that the Conservatives enthusiastically embraced Coalition government & made a determined effort to make it work. They also didn't shy away from taking responsibility for the tough decisions that needed to be taken as well as taking credit for the Coalition's successes.
The Libdems on the other hand spent the entire five years like rabbits in headlights, constantly apologising for their part in any of the early tough decisions. So much so, that by the time positive signs were really appearing in the economy & employment the damage was done because the Libdems had allowed themselves to become perceived by the public as unwilling hostages to fortune rather than a strong and stable Coalition partner.
Politicians in all parties spend far too much time apologising for what look like mistakes with hindsight, but where the decisions were difficult and the implications of a different path being taken are never known.
That is a long period for fieldwork - it covers almost 2 weeks.
Yes, DYOR.
Personally, I think it's bollocks. They have a Tory vote-share of 39%. I do not believe the Tories will go under 40. They have too much of the Leave vote.
FWIW I stand by my official prediction at the very beginning of this election: a notably small Boris majority. 10-30. I still believe that is what we will get.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
Boris has just said he might abolish the BBC licence fee.
That's really quite stupid. Yes it makes logical sense, the BBC itself is considering a new structure, as the fee is unsustainable. But why say it NOW? Why say anything controversial NOW, when the election is almost over, and probably won?
This can easily be portrayed - esp by angry BBC journos - as Boris threatening to privatise our beloved Beeb, as well as the NHS, blah blah
Silly man.
Why privatise? The opposite surely?
But that's how it will be portrayed. Boris is making gaffes as we enter the final straight. The guest workers comment. This BBC idea. The kid in the photo - Why not look?
He's probably as tired as the rest of them. Just three days to go. Help.
Just a thought...dead cat strategy again....the stuff about the kid not getting a bed is bad. What we do know, the media love to talk about themselves and the BBC going mental should anybody ever suggest that you know the BBC should ever be reformed in anyway.
Yes he threw in the BBC comment to deflect from the horror interview earlier with ITV. But without the license fee the BBC will not survive in its current form .
Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!
I am sure the Maomentum tw@tter-sphere is firing up retweets galore of Boris photo clip.
I think he is going to need to find some sort of response.
No winter crisis, quick lets find something else instead. A single child in a single hospital in the world's largest employer has had a poor experience.
From what I can gather, some might be due to worsening social care and the fall in NHS funding growth since 2010 from 4% to 1%/yr.
Easily funded, of course. Even Lansley, ex-SoS for Health wants £30 billion/yr for the NHS immediately. But tax cuts must take priority; screw the poor.
To improve things without spending ~£30-50 billion/yr, maybe we should just find out why people live so long in some other well-known countries, e.g. Australia, Canada, France, Spain and Greece. It isn't just confined to 'elite' countries like Sweden and Switzerland with excellent (and in the latter very expensive) healthcare systems.
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
Apart from spinning from media bods... no they don't particularly. In fact I've seen plenty quite enthused that Labour is pursuing an aggressive strategy into Tory marginals. And their ground game does appear to be well subscribed.
Semi viral lol. Andrew Neil went viral viral and its Labour who have fallen in the polls. Strange reaction by Johnson but I'm pretty sure they have chairs in hospitals.
Interestingly the ITV journo who asked the question is friends with a Corbyn loving old mate of mine, he used to be a Hope not Hate activist so its an interesting path to ITV journo but I expect he was hoping for a gotcha moment.
GODSDAMMIT HOW MANY TIMES HAVE I POINTED THIS OUT! SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATORS BASED ON THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM ARE NOT VALID FOR NONREPRESENTATIVE SAMPLING SINCE THE ASSUMPTIONS DO NOT HOLD! THEY STOPPED DOING THIS IN THE STATES A DECADE AGO! THE BPC GUIDELINES SPECIFICALLY SAYS THE POLLING COMPANIES SHOULD TELL YOU WHAT THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS IN THE SMALL PRINT OF THE POLL. SO IF YOU OPEN UP THE POLL DETAILS FROM THE COMPANY IT WILL TELL YOU WHAT YOU SHOULD USE!
AAARGH! I AM USING TOO MANY CAPITAL LETTERS! BAD VIEWCODE!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997. Here he is at around 1:30:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.
Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!
That woman is odious. Shrill, hectoring, self-righteous, petulant and narcissistic.
The NHS seems to specialise, these days, in producing a particularly unpleasant form of left wing doctor, full of self regard and moral entitlement, and devoid of common sense.
I think it is because we worship the NHS so unquestioningly, those working within it start to feel like they are saints and deities.
EDIT: Actually, that's a bit harsh. She's just relentless and annoying. The polls are making me mad.
One thing to note. Stunts by journalists / activists can sometimes have the opposite affect. Gordo and the Sun over his poorly written letter, Cameron being confronted by the Lib Dem dad with the disabled kid and I think even Jezza getting doorstepped on a number of occasions has got public sympathy even if what he is being accused of isn't good.
What could be a just as big an impact, is I presume Boris will be de-activated for the rest of the campaign.
Re the Johnson not giving a shit about kid in hospital thing (unsurprising for a man who doesn't even know how many of the things he has himself) - why did he take the guy's phone and put it in his pocket? Isn't that quite an odd response, and indicative of a character that is both controlling and dishonest? He basically stole the guy's phone!
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997. Here he is at around 1:30:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.
That woman is odious. Shrill, hectoring, self-righteous, petulant and narcissistic.
The NHS seems to specialise, these days, in producing a particularly unpleasant form of left wing doctor, full of self regard and moral entitlement, and devoid of common sense.
I think it is because we worship the NHS so unquestioningly, those working within it start to feel like they are saints and deities.
When my Dad was in hospital in 2016, every member of staff we spoke to said the NHS should be privatised, and they were glad Leave won. I remember someone on here telling me they only said that to keep me happy, even though half the time it wasn't even me that had spoken to them!
If ICM and the predictions from PSA are close, well then the small things that the Tories have dropped may have big repercussions... What is cutting through and what will undecideds be thinking in the booth? (So many people decide at that point...)
Will people see Boris Johnson pocketing a journalists phone? Agreeing to hire a thug to beat up a journalist? Lying about the Irish sea border, nurses, and hospital numbers? Incapable of serious factual debate - merely rhetoric and straplines. Will they realise that the Tories will do almost zero on the biggest issue facing humanity - climate change (the British actions of which will have a global ripple effect one way or another)? Will they really be scared of SNP/Nicola Sturgeon mediating Corbyn? Is that a threat or an offer indeed? Will they compare Labour's terrible dealing with anti-Semitism with Conservatives institutional levels of racism and Boris Johnson's direct racism, homophobia, scathing attacks on the poor, and alleged misogyny?
Alas these are big IFs, and going by other polls, focus groups of voters from working class backgrounds, and people who are tribally deluded (like many poster on this forum), the Con parroting of 'get brexit done' 'dither and delay' seems to be hypnotically entrancing a significant percentage of the voting population.
BUT some of this reality painted above may come through to enough undecideds, and still a slightly larger amount may vote tactically to support SNP, Lab, LD and a few SDLP, ALL, Green. Claire Wright, and PC to just turn the numbers into NOC...
Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!
That was before 2017...
That was when Martin Boon was running it. He's now running Deltapoll alongside Joe Twyman previously of YouGov
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997. Here he is at around 1:30:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.
He used to work with Tony King a lot, who has now passed away. Didn't he become VC at Essex Uni?
That woman is odious. Shrill, hectoring, self-righteous, petulant and narcissistic.
The NHS seems to specialise, these days, in producing a particularly unpleasant form of left wing doctor, full of self regard and moral entitlement, and devoid of common sense.
I think it is because we worship the NHS so unquestioningly, those working within it start to feel like they are saints and deities.
No. She is just tired of Johnson's lies about the NHS. My niece in law is a doctor and clinical lecturer at a big teaching hospital. She is a natural Tory but would happily tear Johnson apart limb from limb - and given that she has a personality resembling a cross between Hattie Jacques and James Robertson Justice from the old films, Boris would do well to avoid her.
I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997. Here he is at around 1:30:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997. Here he is at around 1:30:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.
Ivor Crewe got cut.
I thought they usually did that at a much younger age?
Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
Strong and stable government* under Boris, or chaos under Jeremy Corbyn.
(*Terms and conditions apply, including but not limited to attempts to sort Brexit long-term without an extension to the implementation period, the apparent alarm in Whitehall over squaring the circle of the NI solution, the realities of BJ's own version of the magic money tree, how the city copes with its new-found "freedom" post-Brexit, grumbles about holiday queues and paying to get into Spain, failure of imaginary hospitals to materialise, continued barrel-scraping levels of funding for many public services. Etc.)
I'm not disputing the potential impacts of a hung parliament (or Lab win).. but I remain to be convinced that a thumping Boris majority would provide all of the oven-ready baubles thus far promised.
Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!
That was before 2017...
That was when Martin Boon was running it. He's now running Deltapoll alongside Joe Twyman previously of YouGov
It's interesting that ICM and ComRes were among the pollsters that had the biggest Con leads in 2017 and this time they have the smallest.
Do you think they've over-adjusted for 2017? Or is it just coincidence?
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
Go figure.
The other amusing thing is that outsourcing to private providers is dreadful Tory privatisation and an end of the NHS as we know it, except when it's outsourcing to GPs as set up by Attlee, of course.
According to the FT, a NI poll conducted by LucidTalk, a Belfast pollster has the following results:
10 DUP 6 SF 2 SDLP
tho Belfast North, and Foyle are on a knife-edge
I'm guessing those figures mean North Down goes to the DUP, but they lose Belfast South to the SDLP, and the SDLP also gains Foyle from Sinn Fein. I don't think any other combinations produce those numbers.
Brendan O'Neill on the "people of talent/colour" controversy:
"And yet, remarkably, there are still some people-of-colour truthers out there. With astonishing speed they have become a new breed of conspiracy theorist. ‘He did say “people of colour” and the mainstream media should stop covering that up’, they say, insanely, coming off like leftish versions of Obama birth truthers.
Why is this happening? Because the anti-Boris brigade has gone mad. It’s been brewing for a couple of weeks and now it has exploded into public life. The ‘people of colour’ conspiracy theory confirms how unhinged the Corbynista wing of politics in particular has become."
record level of wind generated electricity in the uk yesterday.
For the day as a whole...
Yesterday #wind generated 43.7% of British electricity, more than nuclear 20.5%, gas 12.8%, biomass 7.9%, imports 7.4%, coal 3.1%, hydro 1.7%, solar 1.3%, storage 1.1%, other 0.5%, national demand 754 GWh *excl. non-renewable distributed generation
Of course the biggest fallout from polling day is how much will the result affect Correct Horse Battery’s post count. A hung parliament could mean he’ll reach 3,000 by Sunday but a Tory majority means I might not get to read anything new from him for another 5 years. It’s a massive election in so many ways.
I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
Go figure.
Eh? Who are liberals in this context? And is it not more odd that those who advocate adopting French or German health models do not also advocate increasing health spending to French and German levels?
Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,
Of course the biggest fallout from polling day is how much will the result affect Correct Horse Battery’s post count. A hung parliament could mean he’ll reach 3,000 by Sunday but a Tory majority means I might not get to read anything new from him for another 5 years. It’s a massive election in so many ways.
I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
Go figure.
Eh? Who are liberals in this context? And is it not more odd that those who advocate adopting French or German health models do not also advocate increasing health spending to French and German levels?
I was going to ask who these liberals are as well. And the French and German models are completely different, just because they are European (so are we) doesnt mean they are interchangeable. I like the German model but not the French.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit done
Hung parliament = general election in 2020, most likely.
What odds no deal in Jan 31 with a hung parliament?
Shame there is no market for this on betfair as I wouldnt mind hedging some no deal risk. This is the first time I think the market would be underestimating the chance of no deal rather than significantly overestimating.
record level of wind generated electricity in the uk yesterday.
For the day as a whole...
Yesterday #wind generated 43.7% of British electricity, more than nuclear 20.5%, gas 12.8%, biomass 7.9%, imports 7.4%, coal 3.1%, hydro 1.7%, solar 1.3%, storage 1.1%, other 0.5%, national demand 754 GWh *excl. non-renewable distributed generation
One benefit of all that hot air in an election campaign.
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.
"Anecdata" is fine. It doesn't work in a medical context because people do not reliably know whether they are getting better or why. They have a much better handle on who they intend to vote for.
Conversely, polling is not science to set against "anecdata." Proper medical science doesn't ask how people feel, it measures them. Polling is just anecdata aggregation. It's like asking 100 people instead of one whether they think turmeric capsules are helping keep their stage 4 cancer at bay, and pretending the result is useful.
Add to that : it is much easier and more tempting to lie to pollsters, than face to face, and that pollsters are in such disarray they can't even assemble a random sample to work off at the moment. Well sourced anecdotes are at least as reliable a guide.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,
Not as much trouble as the country as a whole. Whether you like it or note everything that Byronic lists there will come to pass if we have a hung Parliament., And a whole lot more shit as well.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
Well - that's one way to shut down criticism or debate - cry misogyny.
For what it's worth my wife likes the Lib Dems generally (except revoke policy), really admires our local Lib Dem candidate but really dislikes Jo.
We did. A lot of candidates thought it would be a drubbing and had to kowtow to jeremy when wrong. But they do appear to be down fron last time, so if they are wrong they need to be even wronger than then.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit done
Does it feel like Westmorland could go Tory this time? It's almost split 50/50 on Brexit and was very close last time, with MRP also predicting a close result.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
With hindsight an interesting strategy for them would be to almost have ignored Brexit. Say you know where we stand on that but we have much more to us than just Brexit. Talk mainly about the environment, education and a positive vision of Britains future in the world.
According to the FT, a NI poll conducted by LucidTalk, a Belfast pollster has the following results:
10 DUP 6 SF 2 SDLP
tho Belfast North, and Foyle are on a knife-edge
I'm guessing those figures mean North Down goes to the DUP, but they lose Belfast South to the SDLP, and the SDLP also gains Foyle from Sinn Fein. I don't think any other combinations produce those numbers.
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
Well - that's one way to shut down criticism or debate - cry misogyny.
For what it's worth my wife likes the Lib Dems generally (except revoke policy), really admires our local Lib Dem candidate but really dislikes Jo.
The evidence that female politicians have a harder job being liked, and in particular are more hated, is quite strong. I dont think voters and commentators set out to be harsher on women politicians, but equally it is fair to point out the reality that we do.
Comments
The quality of some care, especially GP level is of a much lower standard than what would be expected in insurance incentivised systems. See how an nhs dentist and a private dentist operate. Every procedure, screen and test is an income generator and pushed like an extended warranty in PC World.
Its only more recently that GPs are also now extensively incentivised for screening, preventative and early diagnosis programmes. Bowel cancer, breast cancer and prostate cancers are now screened on a much wider basis than the past.
Never mind, a great opportunity lost for LibDems to make real headway. When they finally (and probably too late) learn that a party to the left of centre can harvest most votes from another but unpopular party of the left they could eventually make some progress.
The Libdems on the other hand spent the entire five years like rabbits in headlights, constantly apologising for their part in any of the early tough decisions. So much so, that by the time positive signs were really appearing in the economy & employment the damage was done because the Libdems had allowed themselves to become perceived by the public as unwilling hostages to fortune rather than a strong and stable Coalition partner.
Mr Johnson then removed the phone from his pocket and looked at the screen.
"It's a terrible, terrible photo, and I apologise, obviously, to the family, and all those who have terrible experiences in the NHS," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50717606
Personally, I think it's bollocks. They have a Tory vote-share of 39%. I do not believe the Tories will go under 40. They have too much of the Leave vote.
FWIW I stand by my official prediction at the very beginning of this election: a notably small Boris majority. 10-30. I still believe that is what we will get.
But crikey, it's nerve-racking
Gone semi viral
It is no longer fit for purpose.
Easily funded, of course. Even Lansley, ex-SoS for Health wants £30 billion/yr for the NHS immediately. But tax cuts must take priority; screw the poor.
To improve things without spending ~£30-50 billion/yr, maybe we should just find out why people live so long in some other well-known countries, e.g. Australia, Canada, France, Spain and Greece. It isn't just confined to 'elite' countries like Sweden and Switzerland with excellent (and in the latter very expensive) healthcare systems.
Interestingly the ITV journo who asked the question is friends with a Corbyn loving old mate of mine, he used to be a Hope not Hate activist so its an interesting path to ITV journo but I expect he was hoping for a gotcha moment.
AAARGH! I AM USING TOO MANY CAPITAL LETTERS! BAD VIEWCODE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997.
Here he is at around 1:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.
The NHS seems to specialise, these days, in producing a particularly unpleasant form of left wing doctor, full of self regard and moral entitlement, and devoid of common sense.
I think it is because we worship the NHS so unquestioningly, those working within it start to feel like they are saints and deities.
EDIT: Actually, that's a bit harsh. She's just relentless and annoying. The polls are making me mad.
Con 42.7%
Lab 33.2%
LD 12.4%
What could be a just as big an impact, is I presume Boris will be de-activated for the rest of the campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
What is cutting through and what will undecideds be thinking in the booth? (So many people decide at that point...)
Will people see Boris Johnson pocketing a journalists phone? Agreeing to hire a thug to beat up a journalist?
Lying about the Irish sea border, nurses, and hospital numbers? Incapable of serious factual debate - merely rhetoric and straplines.
Will they realise that the Tories will do almost zero on the biggest issue facing humanity - climate change (the British actions of which will have a global ripple effect one way or another)?
Will they really be scared of SNP/Nicola Sturgeon mediating Corbyn? Is that a threat or an offer indeed?
Will they compare Labour's terrible dealing with anti-Semitism with Conservatives institutional levels of racism and Boris Johnson's direct racism, homophobia, scathing attacks on the poor, and alleged misogyny?
Alas these are big IFs, and going by other polls, focus groups of voters from working class backgrounds, and people who are tribally deluded (like many poster on this forum), the Con parroting of 'get brexit done' 'dither and delay' seems to be hypnotically entrancing a significant percentage of the voting population.
BUT some of this reality painted above may come through to enough undecideds, and still a slightly larger amount may vote tactically to support SNP, Lab, LD and a few SDLP, ALL, Green. Claire Wright, and PC to just turn the numbers into NOC...
10 DUP
6 SF
2 SDLP
tho Belfast North, and Foyle are on a knife-edge
Go figure.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
(*Terms and conditions apply, including but not limited to attempts to sort Brexit long-term without an extension to the implementation period, the apparent alarm in Whitehall over squaring the circle of the NI solution, the realities of BJ's own version of the magic money tree, how the city copes with its new-found "freedom" post-Brexit, grumbles about holiday queues and paying to get into Spain, failure of imaginary hospitals to materialise, continued barrel-scraping levels of funding for many public services. Etc.)
I'm not disputing the potential impacts of a hung parliament (or Lab win).. but I remain to be convinced that a thumping Boris majority would provide all of the oven-ready baubles thus far promised.
Do you think they've over-adjusted for 2017? Or is it just coincidence?
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
Unfit for office.
When justice comes, it will come for Brendan.
For the day as a whole...
Yesterday #wind generated 43.7% of British electricity, more than nuclear 20.5%, gas 12.8%, biomass 7.9%, imports 7.4%, coal 3.1%, hydro 1.7%, solar 1.3%, storage 1.1%, other 0.5%, national demand 754 GWh *excl. non-renewable distributed generation
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,
https://twitter.com/alexberenson/status/1203483555344605185?s=21
Shame there is no market for this on betfair as I wouldnt mind hedging some no deal risk. This is the first time I think the market would be underestimating the chance of no deal rather than significantly overestimating.
Conversely, polling is not science to set against "anecdata." Proper medical science doesn't ask how people feel, it measures them. Polling is just anecdata aggregation. It's like asking 100 people instead of one whether they think turmeric capsules are helping keep their stage 4 cancer at bay, and pretending the result is useful.
Add to that : it is much easier and more tempting to lie to pollsters, than face to face, and that pollsters are in such disarray they can't even assemble a random sample to work off at the moment. Well sourced anecdotes are at least as reliable a guide.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
It is however a taste of the regime to come. No surprise though, surely.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-50711779
CON 320
LAB 252
LD 15
SNP 41
PC 3
GRN 1
NOM available at 5.1 on Betfair
For what it's worth my wife likes the Lib Dems generally (except revoke policy), really admires our local Lib Dem candidate but really dislikes Jo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
And they also got the 2015 election spot on too (although sadly Damian didn't have enough belief in his poll to publish it)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Past glory's are no guarantee of future success but they are certainly the pollsters to beat for the rest of the competition.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/generalelection/2019/12/09/news/dup-will-lose-to-sdlp-in-south-belfast-but-beat-sinn-fe-in-in-north-belfast-poll-suggests-1785383/
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.