Capitalism is a terrible system apart from all the other systems that have been tried. Look what happened in Venezuela when they tried to build a socialist utopia.
Or look at the Scandi economic models? Investment, social equality, focus on education and technology. Sounds good to me.
What does Corbynism have to do with Scandinavia though?
What do I have to do with justifying Corbynism? Nothing, I think its nonsense. Just pointing out our choices dont need to be US model vs Venezuelan model, there are far better models than either of them out there.
I think if we focused more on education, technology and investment in the country, life could be a lot better for all.
Folk switching from Labour to Conservative over Brexit will live to regret their decision when they get shafted by the next Government.
Labour looks to get votes from the poorest which encourages them to ensure they stay poor. Hence the poverty trap they created ensures they stay impoverished, while ensuring people rent is good for Labour.
Indeed. Labour chose to be the party for landlords when in government which is why home ownership rates collapsed in this country.
I think the Tories increasing home ownership rates is good. I think Labour decreasing home ownership rates was bad. What about you?
All governments this century are responsible for the housing situation, so Labour, Tories and LDs. Likemortgage banking and Help to Buy have happened under the Tory watch though.
QE began under the last government and was needed as they'd ran out of money. Help to Buy was a Tory idea and has helped lead to record construction and improved home ownership rates I agree.
Which was my original point. Tories want voters to have capital. They want voters to succeed.
Labour wants voters to rely upon them.
The Tories have just presided over a decade where those with assets have raced away from those with wages but no assets. I think the first few years of that were unintended as politicians didnt fully understand what QE was doing and just following central bankers advice. The last few years have been a deliberate continuance, separating the country into haves and have nots. After a decade in power I will judge by their actions and results not their words or spin.
Obviously I have no time for Labours current economics either. No-one is representing workers interests.
Capitalism is a terrible system apart from all the other systems that have been tried. Look what happened in Venezuela when they tried to build a socialist utopia.
Or look at the Scandi economic models? Investment, social equality, focus on education and technology. Sounds good to me.
Scandinavian model is capitalist with a stronger safety net, it is probably the most market orientated set of economies in the EU outside of the UK.
Norwegian model is built on oil; the Swedish one is built on timber.
On the BBC and steaming, I know one of the world's experts on streaming media after a chat with him on the subject I became a lot less bullish on Netflix.
Most streaming technology is licensable. The key is having the people to work it. That means paying high salaries. A BBC freed of the licence fee would have that freedom.
The CON vote is provided by those who work or have worked, including the aspirant working classes, who want to be able to hold onto a fair part of the wealth for which they have worked. That to me is more important than Brexit. It is down to these 43% to 45% to get out to the polling station on Thur to defeat the enemy within which is LAB, LD and SNP.
If we can get the 43% to 45% we will be fine.
If only those who work had voted at the last election, Labour would have been clear winners.
Boris has just said he might abolish the BBC licence fee.
That's really quite stupid. Yes it makes logical sense, the BBC itself is considering a new structure, as the fee is unsustainable. But why say it NOW? Why say anything controversial NOW, when the election is almost over, and probably won?
This can easily be portrayed - esp by angry BBC journos - as Boris threatening to privatise our beloved Beeb, as well as the NHS, blah blah
Silly man.
Why privatise? The opposite surely?
But that's how it will be portrayed. Boris is making gaffes as we enter the final straight. The guest workers comment. This BBC idea. The kid in the photo - Why not look?
He's probably as tired as the rest of them. Just three days to go. Help.
Just a thought...dead cat strategy again....the stuff about the kid not getting a bed is bad. What we do know, the media love to talk about themselves and the BBC going mental should anybody ever suggest that you know the BBC should ever be reformed in anyway.
Yes he threw in the BBC comment to deflect from the horror interview earlier with ITV. But without the license fee the BBC will not survive in its current form .
Should the BBC survive in its current form?
Not bothered if it does - I am unhappy paying for a service I never use though.
I've always argued defeat brings opportunities and victory brings challenges.
For Labour, the LDs and others, the Conservative win will be a blow and indeed very difficult to take as it should be but Johnson will have nowhere to hide and no one else to blame.
The LDs have a problem but an opportunity too. Stopping Brexit was never credible - I speak as an LD LEAVE voter - and it would have been better to have enabled the process and ensured the future trading and political relationship was BINO. It's just not right for a democratic party to seek to overturn a democratic vote - had Swinson simply argued for a second referendum, it would have made no difference because a) there's no appetite for a second round of what we went through in 2016 and b) the fact is no one had an answer to the question of what would happen if LEAVE won again.
Arguing to rejoin the EU will, I think, one day be a very powerful and popular position but in time and it needs to be clear on what basis the UK would rejoin.
The LDs have carved out a new position as the Party of sound financial management and that's something that can be built on in opposition along with a new emphasis on environmental issues which is the coming big political item for the second quarter of this century if the impacts of global climate change become more evident.
How can "Global Britain" use its leverage (such as it is) to bring other countries (USA, China and others) into a more environmentally-friendly form of capitalism based on de-carbonisation?
How do we facilitate economic prosperity for others (Africa) which we have enjoyed but on a basis of minimising the global environmental impact?
1. Plaid confident of holding Ceredigion - not so confident in Ynys Mon
2. Plaid doing well in Neath and Caerffili - not well enough to win this GE but setting up for win at next Senedd election.
3. Labour have given up in Bridgend - but getting a bit confident in Vale of Glamorgan
If Labour have given up on Bridgend, a seat that they had an 11% lead last time, they won't get the Vale which they lost by 4%. Those are neighbouring seats.
That is a good anecdote. Bridgend is seat number 51 I think for Lab to Tory gains based upon required swing.
Worth listening to WATO at about 1.20 ish.. 8.undecided voters.. and at the end. The mrssage get brexit done was repeated by at least 6 of the 8 undecided who said if they had to vote.now they would vote tory. dyor but the e message is getting thro One guy was vitriolic about Bercow 😀😀😀
What car would these politicians be: Boris BMW or Rolls Royce, if not in politics a second hand car dealer Jeremy Corbyn Robin Reliant or Skoda, if not in politics, homeless (!) Jo Swinson a Fiat 500, a moped, if not in politics a nursery nurse
So: The big question for this election is whether ICM's methodology is very wrong, or unusual for being about right.
Several of the pollsters have said that the changing political landscape makes it hard to know whether they've got their weightings right. We'll find out on Thursday night.
1. Plaid confident of holding Ceredigion - not so confident in Ynys Mon
2. Plaid doing well in Neath and Caerffili - not well enough to win this GE but setting up for win at next Senedd election.
3. Labour have given up in Bridgend - but getting a bit confident in Vale of Glamorgan
If Labour have given up on Bridgend, a seat that they had an 11% lead last time, they won't get the Vale which they lost by 4%. Those are neighbouring seats.
Plaid's Ceredigion optimism is reflected in the betting - plaid were 6/4 at start of campaign, now widely 8/11
Like ComRes and BMG, they had some of the highest tory leads (12% in their final poll). Seems like all 3 have gone in the opposite direction this time (ComRes and BMG both greatly overestimated labour in the EU election).
On Wednesday, the eve of the General Election, I will be campaigning in Hartlepool in support of our outstanding candidate, Richard Tice. Come and join me and let’s get Richard over the line!
In key seats like Hartlepool it’s now a two-horse race between The Brexit Party and a Remainer Labour MP. The message we will be delivering to voters is clear: only Richard Tice and The Brexit Party can beat Corbyn’s Remainer Labour here.
Join me in Hartlepool on Wednesday, where our team will be leafleting, door-knocking and drumming up support. Don’t miss this chance to make history in Hartlepool!
What a nerve.
It's obviously a two horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems!
1. Plaid confident of holding Ceredigion - not so confident in Ynys Mon
2. Plaid doing well in Neath and Caerffili - not well enough to win this GE but setting up for win at next Senedd election.
3. Labour have given up in Bridgend - but getting a bit confident in Vale of Glamorgan
If Labour have given up on Bridgend, a seat that they had an 11% lead last time, they won't get the Vale which they lost by 4%. Those are neighbouring seats.
Vale is Alun Cairns seat so likely to buck trend of any large Lab to Con swing in Wales.
I am sure the Maomentum tw@tter-sphere is firing up retweets galore of Boris photo clip.
I think he is going to need to find some sort of response.
No winter crisis, quick lets find something else instead. A single child in a single hospital in the world's largest employer has had a poor experience.
Not unless it's a late and accelerating trend, which I'm not completely discounting.
At the beginning of the campaign ICM had the Tory lead at 7pts, now it's 6pts. Pretty much every polling organisation has the Tory lead currently within 1-2pts of where they had it at the beginning of the campaign. The only exceptions being Survation (larger lead), Kantar and Ipsos Mori (both smaller leads but still double figures).
I wonder if we're looking at a return to the boring old "campaigns change nothing" times?
Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
So: The big question for this election is whether ICM's methodology is very wrong, or unusual for being about right.
Several of the pollsters have said that the changing political landscape makes it hard to know whether they've got their weightings right. We'll find out on Thursday night.
I think I'll wait for yougov's welsh barometer.
Last time it was pretty accurate and you could see that nationally it was going to be a close race. The national polls usually show the wrong picture in the last week due to herding but they don't change the numbers for the regional polls because they assume local factors can play an oversized role.
In 2015 the movements in the last Barometer poll in wales were:
Boris has just said he might abolish the BBC licence fee.
That's really quite stupid. Yes it makes logical sense, the BBC itself is considering a new structure, as the fee is unsustainable. But why say it NOW? Why say anything controversial NOW, when the election is almost over, and probably won?
This can easily be portrayed - esp by angry BBC journos - as Boris threatening to privatise our beloved Beeb, as well as the NHS, blah blah
Silly man.
Why privatise? The opposite surely?
But that's how it will be portrayed. Boris is making gaffes as we enter the final straight. The guest workers comment. This BBC idea. The kid in the photo - Why not look?
He's probably as tired as the rest of them. Just three days to go. Help.
Just a thought...dead cat strategy again....the stuff about the kid not getting a bed is bad. What we do know, the media love to talk about themselves and the BBC going mental should anybody ever suggest that you know the BBC should ever be reformed in anyway.
Yes he threw in the BBC comment to deflect from the horror interview earlier with ITV. But without the license fee the BBC will not survive in its current form .
Should the BBC survive in its current form?
Not bothered if it does - I am unhappy paying for a service I never use though.
You tube gives me more pleasure than the beeb
Youtube without adverts is wonderful. But I'm effectively cross-subsidised by the poor souls who put up with ads. every 3 mins., or so it seems when Adblock ever stops working.
BBC programmes should be free to users and paid out of general taxation as the World Service was funded ... until politicians thought they knew better. Then I'd be contributing to R4 and R3. I currently pay nothing.
I see CORBYN is in Bristol which is ultra LAB area.
Is Debbonaire going to lose her seat?!
What the hell is he doing there. It is literally West Country Islington.
For probably much the same reason as Neil Kinnock attended his famous "We're all right, we're all right" rally in Sheffield ... I think it's commonly known as kidding yourself!
Not unless it's a late and accelerating trend, which I'm not completely discounting.
At the beginning of the campaign ICM had the Tory lead at 7pts, now it's 6pts. Pretty much every polling organisation has the Tory lead currently within 1-2pts of where they had it at the beginning of the campaign. The only exceptions being Survation (larger lead), Kantar and Ipsos Mori (both smaller leads but still double figures).
I wonder if we're looking at a return to the boring old "campaigns change nothing" times?
WillS
A +1 and a -1 the rest static is basically no change. As others have stated the real issue is whether ICM are more accurate with the gap.
I am sure the Maomentum tw@tter-sphere is firing up retweets galore of Boris photo clip.
I think he is going to need to find some sort of response.
No winter crisis, quick lets find something else instead. A single child in a single hospital in the world's largest employer has had a poor experience.
After Centrist_Phone has reweighted this ICM poll, he will have Labour ahead by 1% and putting that into Barensian model will have Labour landslide....
The Wales poll could be interesting. In 2017 we saw CON doing well in Wales in early polls which melted away by the last one. And CON results were really bad in Wales despite expectations.
so IF this poll due at 5pm is good for CON then it could be CON gain Wrexham, Bridgend, Delyn, Ynys Mon and er Ogmore!
If all the polls were showing exactly the same thing it would be proof they were wrong, (for a statistical reason I don't fully understand, although the basic idea makes sense). It happened in the Australian election a few months ago.
"Another issue I and others have been pondering is the low level of variation between polls. Of the last 16 published national polls, 7 have placed the ALP two-party-preferred vote at 51%, 7 at 52%, and one each at 52.5% and 53%. As Mark the Ballot points out, that’s less variation than you’d expect if they really were based on random samples. The most likely explanation for this underdispersion is that polling firms are introducing errors in their processing that push their polls towards a consensus view. This is a known phenomenon around the world, as this 2014 article by Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight demonstrates. The net effect is to reduce the usefulness of polls, by bringing them towards a pundit-based folly of the crowds consensus."
Not unless it's a late and accelerating trend, which I'm not completely discounting.
At the beginning of the campaign ICM had the Tory lead at 7pts, now it's 6pts. Pretty much every polling organisation has the Tory lead currently within 1-2pts of where they had it at the beginning of the campaign. The only exceptions being Survation (larger lead), Kantar and Ipsos Mori (both smaller leads but still double figures).
I wonder if we're looking at a return to the boring old "campaigns change nothing" times?
Almost exactly in line with the average before either of them was released, and very similar to the MRP figures.
I've never understood why people post up or even look at poll averages. All they do is confirm herding bias.
Either all of the polls are wrong (as I think) or one of them is right. The chances of the mean across all polls being correct is slim.
The average of polls in 2017 quite correctly showed the trends (ie Labour rising, Tories falling), it just got the size of the dwindling Tory lead wrong
Labour looks to get votes from the poorest which encourages them to ensure they stay poor. Hence the poverty trap they created ensures they stay impoverished, while ensuring people rent is good for Labour.
Indeed. Labour chose to be the party for landlords when in government which is why home ownership rates collapsed in this country. I think the Tories increasing home ownership rates is good. I think Labour decreasing home ownership rates was bad. What about you?
All governments this century are responsible for the housing situation, so Labour, Tories and LDs. Likemortgage banking and Help to Buy have happened under the Tory watch though.
QE began under the last government and was needed as they'd ran out of money. Help to Buy was a Tory idea and has helped lead to record construction and improved home ownership rates I agree. Which was my original point. Tories want voters to have capital. They want voters to succeed. Labour wants voters to rely upon them.
The Tories have just presided over a decade where those with assets have raced away from those with wages but no assets. I think the first few years of that were unintended as politicians didnt fully understand what QE was doing and just following central bankers advice. The last few years have been a deliberate continuance, separating the country into haves and have nots. After a decade in power I will judge by their actions and results not their words or spin. Obviously I have no time for Labours current economics either. No-one is representing workers interests.
Capitalism is a terrible system apart from all the other systems that have been tried. Look what happened in Venezuela when they tried to build a socialist utopia.
Or look at the Scandi economic models? Investment, social equality, focus on education and technology. Sounds good to me.
Scandinavian model is capitalist with a stronger safety net, it is probably the most market orientated set of economies in the EU outside of the UK.
Norwegian model is built on oil; the Swedish one is built on timber. Don't tell Greta...
Vote CON on Thur to stop the CORBYN/STURGEON regime!
Nicola Sturgeon is generally considered to be a more able politician than Bozo, so 'threatening' the nation with her may not be the smartest move for the Tories.
After Centrist_Phone has reweighted this ICM poll, he will have Labour ahead by 1% and putting that into Barensian model will have Labour landslide....
Well according to John McDonnell This morning it will be a labour majority and Richard Burgon says it will be the Tory and Lib Dem leaders resigning on Friday , not Jezza. In other news flying pigs spotted over London. 😂
To show I can be balanced, I don't think the 1% nudge up by Labour in ICM is the relevant part as that's MoE stuff.
It's the fact that it 'only' shows a 6% gap.
I still don't believe 'Flat Cap Fred' will turn out for the tories on the day.
Your term 'Flat Cap Fred' both breathtakingly patronising and wildly anachronistic, perfectly encapsulates why he will
It was a quote from a tory poster on here this morning. I think he meant it to be taken light-heartedly. As you should.
p.s. you joined around the time the election was called. Hmmm ...
I don't think it is really any different from Mondeo Man etc. It encapsulates exactly the sort of people the Tories are relying on in order to get a majority.
Not unless it's a late and accelerating trend, which I'm not completely discounting.
At the beginning of the campaign ICM had the Tory lead at 7pts, now it's 6pts. Pretty much every polling organisation has the Tory lead currently within 1-2pts of where they had it at the beginning of the campaign. The only exceptions being Survation (larger lead), Kantar and Ipsos Mori (both smaller leads but still double figures).
I wonder if we're looking at a return to the boring old "campaigns change nothing" times?
The Tories looking at "either abolishing the licence fee or decriminalising non-payment" is like saying they're looking at either "offering a contract for toenail care in Scunthorpe to the local chiropodists' co-operative or selling the whole entity to US pharma".
Decriminalising non-payment (despite undoubted difficulties for the BBC in doing so) is not an extreme policy. Abolishing the licence fee is, at least while free-to-air broadcast is still a thing.
And while both sides of Twitter (and avid followers of the dead tree press) hate BBC News and everyone grumbles about paying the licence fee, I'd take a punt that killing off the BBC or holing it beneath the water line would not be electorally successful.
Come the next charter (ie from 2028), my best bet is that the funding will split between a subscription to access Strictly, Attenborough and the rest of BBC One's hits plus some well-loved specialist stuff online, and a hugely pared-down tax solution (either a grant, hypothecated Income Tax or attached to your broadband or leccy bill etc) for any other stuff which government deems to be a public good.
I suspect that may mean a rapid end to free-to-air terrestrial broadcasting altogether. The BBC pays a significant share of transmitting it at the moment, and Freeview would be a less attractive platform for others once it had left. Maybe the market will be at that point anyway by then. Or maybe there'll still be a generation of confused old Tory voters who've never heard of Netflix wondering where Eastenders and Poldark have gone.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
I think between 5 and 10 points is reasonable. 15 seems too high, which means that’s what it will be!
I am going with 10pp with risks skewed towards a lower number. Anything outside a 4-12pp range would constitute a genuine surprise, in my view. MoE calculations around polls these days are BS because none of them are random samples, they are all an effort to generate a pseudorandom sample by weighting on demographics. The results are so dependent on the assumptions employed, and the uncertainties around those assumptions are huge and hard to quantify.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
To show I can be balanced, I don't think the 1% nudge up by Labour in ICM is the relevant part as that's MoE stuff.
It's the fact that it 'only' shows a 6% gap.
I still don't believe 'Flat Cap Fred' will turn out for the tories on the day.
Your term 'Flat Cap Fred' both breathtakingly patronising and wildly anachronistic, perfectly encapsulates why he will
It was a quote from a tory poster on here this morning. I think he meant it to be taken light-heartedly. As you should.
p.s. you joined around the time the election was called. Hmmm ...
I don't think it is really any different from Mondeo Man etc. It encapsulates exactly the sort of people the Tories are relying on in order to get a majority.
Yeah I think it's rather good as long as one takes it light-heartedly.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
The problem with Lewis is he is totally partial towards Labour. John Harris on the other hand, despite clearly been left leaning, does seem to manage to put that aside and over the course of last 3 elections (2 GE, Brexit) has had a good finger on the pulse.
Not unless it's a late and accelerating trend, which I'm not completely discounting.
At the beginning of the campaign ICM had the Tory lead at 7pts, now it's 6pts. Pretty much every polling organisation has the Tory lead currently within 1-2pts of where they had it at the beginning of the campaign. The only exceptions being Survation (larger lead), Kantar and Ipsos Mori (both smaller leads but still double figures).
I wonder if we're looking at a return to the boring old "campaigns change nothing" times?
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
Not unless it's a late and accelerating trend, which I'm not completely discounting.
At the beginning of the campaign ICM had the Tory lead at 7pts, now it's 6pts. Pretty much every polling organisation has the Tory lead currently within 1-2pts of where they had it at the beginning of the campaign. The only exceptions being Survation (larger lead), Kantar and Ipsos Mori (both smaller leads but still double figures).
I wonder if we're looking at a return to the boring old "campaigns change nothing" times?
Comments
I think if we focused more on education, technology and investment in the country, life could be a lot better for all.
Don't tell Greta...
The Conservative vote is held up by the retired.
You tube gives me more pleasure than the beeb
I've always argued defeat brings opportunities and victory brings challenges.
For Labour, the LDs and others, the Conservative win will be a blow and indeed very difficult to take as it should be but Johnson will have nowhere to hide and no one else to blame.
The LDs have a problem but an opportunity too. Stopping Brexit was never credible - I speak as an LD LEAVE voter - and it would have been better to have enabled the process and ensured the future trading and political relationship was BINO. It's just not right for a democratic party to seek to overturn a democratic vote - had Swinson simply argued for a second referendum, it would have made no difference because a) there's no appetite for a second round of what we went through in 2016 and b) the fact is no one had an answer to the question of what would happen if LEAVE won again.
Arguing to rejoin the EU will, I think, one day be a very powerful and popular position but in time and it needs to be clear on what basis the UK would rejoin.
The LDs have carved out a new position as the Party of sound financial management and that's something that can be built on in opposition along with a new emphasis on environmental issues which is the coming big political item for the second quarter of this century if the impacts of global climate change become more evident.
How can "Global Britain" use its leverage (such as it is) to bring other countries (USA, China and others) into a more environmentally-friendly form of capitalism based on de-carbonisation?
How do we facilitate economic prosperity for others (Africa) which we have enjoyed but on a basis of minimising the global environmental impact?
What about ICM in 2017?
Boris BMW or Rolls Royce, if not in politics a second hand car dealer
Jeremy Corbyn Robin Reliant or Skoda, if not in politics, homeless (!)
Jo Swinson a Fiat 500, a moped, if not in politics a nursery nurse
Utterly brutal.
Several of the pollsters have said that the changing political landscape makes it hard to know whether they've got their weightings right. We'll find out on Thursday night.
It's obviously a two horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems!
looks like a kneejerk. Who can tell?
Irony is it's plausible their turnout model might have been more appropriate this time round.
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2019/10/01/life-expectancy-in-england-whats-going-on/
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/
Just as I was beginning to relax. A bit. ICMMMMM
FUKKKKKKK
Sounds like the 'plot' of an adult video.
At the beginning of the campaign ICM had the Tory lead at 7pts, now it's 6pts. Pretty much every polling organisation has the Tory lead currently within 1-2pts of where they had it at the beginning of the campaign. The only exceptions being Survation (larger lead), Kantar and Ipsos Mori (both smaller leads but still double figures).
I wonder if we're looking at a return to the boring old "campaigns change nothing" times?
WillS
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
Last time it was pretty accurate and you could see that nationally it was going to be a close race.
The national polls usually show the wrong picture in the last week due to herding but they don't change the numbers for the regional polls because they assume local factors can play an oversized role.
In 2015 the movements in the last Barometer poll in wales were:
LAB +3
CON-1
National movement
LAB+1
CON+1
In 2017:
LAB+9
CON+4
National movement
LAB +10
CON +5
Vote CON on Thur to stop the CORBYN/STURGEON regime!
It's the fact that it 'only' shows a 6% gap.
I still don't believe 'Flat Cap Fred' will turn out for the tories on the day.
Con 43.5%
Lab 33.5%
Almost exactly in line with the average before either of them was released, and very similar to the MRP figures.
BBC programmes should be free to users and paid out of general taxation as the World Service was funded ... until politicians thought they knew better. Then I'd be contributing to R4 and R3. I currently pay nothing.
We've had 9 yrs of tory shambles. It's time for a radical shift.
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2018/rising-death-rates-england-and-wales-must-be-investigated
I feel sure that will tell us.
So the pollsters are telling us the tory lead is....oooh.....anything between two and eighteen points.
Thanks guys.
so IF this poll due at 5pm is good for CON then it could be CON gain Wrexham, Bridgend, Delyn, Ynys Mon and er Ogmore!
http://freerangestats.info/blog/2019/05/15/polls-misc
"Another issue I and others have been pondering is the low level of variation between polls. Of the last 16 published national polls, 7 have placed the ALP two-party-preferred vote at 51%, 7 at 52%, and one each at 52.5% and 53%. As Mark the Ballot points out, that’s less variation than you’d expect if they really were based on random samples. The most likely explanation for this underdispersion is that polling firms are introducing errors in their processing that push their polls towards a consensus view. This is a known phenomenon around the world, as this 2014 article by Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight demonstrates. The net effect is to reduce the usefulness of polls, by bringing them towards a pundit-based folly of the crowds consensus."
Either all of the polls are wrong (as I think) or one of them is right. The chances of the mean across all polls being correct is slim.
p.s. you joined around the time the election was called. Hmmm ...
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/norway/
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
1) hand delivered Tory A5 card.
1 posted Tory A5 card
1 Tory letter unopened (as it's not mine to open) but the return address is CCHQ..
The Tory's definitely think Darlington is worth spending a lot of money on.
Decriminalising non-payment (despite undoubted difficulties for the BBC in doing so) is not an extreme policy. Abolishing the licence fee is, at least while free-to-air broadcast is still a thing.
And while both sides of Twitter (and avid followers of the dead tree press) hate BBC News and everyone grumbles about paying the licence fee, I'd take a punt that killing off the BBC or holing it beneath the water line would not be electorally successful.
Come the next charter (ie from 2028), my best bet is that the funding will split between a subscription to access Strictly, Attenborough and the rest of BBC One's hits plus some well-loved specialist stuff online, and a hugely pared-down tax solution (either a grant, hypothecated Income Tax or attached to your broadband or leccy bill etc) for any other stuff which government deems to be a public good.
I suspect that may mean a rapid end to free-to-air terrestrial broadcasting altogether. The BBC pays a significant share of transmitting it at the moment, and Freeview would be a less attractive platform for others once it had left. Maybe the market will be at that point anyway by then. Or maybe there'll still be a generation of confused old Tory voters who've never heard of Netflix wondering where Eastenders and Poldark have gone.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204050910772633602
MoE calculations around polls these days are BS because none of them are random samples, they are all an effort to generate a pseudorandom sample by weighting on demographics. The results are so dependent on the assumptions employed, and the uncertainties around those assumptions are huge and hard to quantify.
Sexist.
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.