politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The data’s clear: The Tories are retaining more of their GE201
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Ludicrous. Why should Over 75 taxpayers get a free licence when younger citizens in far worse financial strait do not? I have no problem with Over 75s getting a free licence on a means tested basis of some sort but it is ridiculous to be giving hand outs to those relatively well off.MikeL said:Per BBC:
"Back to Boris Johnson and his questions. He's asked about the future of the BBC licence fee and surprises those listening saying he believes the whole idea of funding the BBC through a licence fee should be looked at.
"It is effectively a tax," he says."
So he says looked at. Nothing definitive.
If he wins, let's hope this is the leverage to force BBC to pay for all Over 75s.1 -
If -- though both Cummings and Banks acknowledged their Leave votes were more in the fashion of NOTA protest votes than considered verdicts on the EU. Is Boris NOTA in this election? Perhaps he is, as he is running against Parliament and most of the rest of the Cabinet is locked into the 2017 cupboard.eek said:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...speedy2 said:I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/12040509107726336020 -
Tories currently nervous. Last time they were in retreat (although the last week was a bit calmer tbf).Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.0 -
Cancer survival rates have actually improved quite a bit over the last fifteen years in the NHS. They may be low by western standards, but they were much lower in the past.melcf said:
Whatever floats your boat, Einstein. Death rates have been rising and cancer survival rates are the lowest, by Western standardsNorthernPowerhouse said:
Reduction in the improvement of life expectancy. You get to wear PB's dunce cap for the day.melcf said:
Check this link and look into your soulNorthernPowerhouse said:
No winter crisis, quick lets find something else instead. A single child in a single hospital in the world's largest employer has had a poor experience.FrancisUrquhart said:I am sure the Maomentum tw@tter-sphere is firing up retweets galore of Boris photo clip.
I think he is going to need to find some sort of response.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/mortality-rates-are-on-the-rise-in-the-uk-so-why-is-no-one-talking-about-it
If not for Corbyn and Brexit, the Toris would be below 250 seats. Last ten years have been a disaster. The effects of which will last decades and take a generation to rectify.
Now the housing crisis, and Thatcher selling off the housing stock.
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2019/10/01/life-expectancy-in-england-whats-going-on/
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2018/rising-death-rates-england-and-wales-must-be-investigated
The quality of some care, especially GP level is of a much lower standard than what would be expected in insurance incentivised systems. See how an nhs dentist and a private dentist operate. Every procedure, screen and test is an income generator and pushed like an extended warranty in PC World.
Its only more recently that GPs are also now extensively incentivised for screening, preventative and early diagnosis programmes. Bowel cancer, breast cancer and prostate cancers are now screened on a much wider basis than the past.0 -
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.0 -
Survation is the gold standard after 2017 so that's the one we're sticking with!
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It does feel very different, but I have said from day one that this Tory strategy of wooing Northern lifelong Labour supporters is very risky and uncertain.Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.1 -
iirc, the last day of campaigning saw at least one CON on here come back saying it was worse out than even the polls had suggested and I had at least one other, on a different media, saying the same at the other end of the country.0
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What do you expect if you run a campaign based on tactical voting, standing candidates down and a negative message of Stop the Tories, vote for anyone except us and the Tories - that message will drive your voters to Labour tactically.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Never mind, a great opportunity lost for LibDems to make real headway. When they finally (and probably too late) learn that a party to the left of centre can harvest most votes from another but unpopular party of the left they could eventually make some progress.0 -
Another way of looking at it is that the Conservatives enthusiastically embraced Coalition government & made a determined effort to make it work. They also didn't shy away from taking responsibility for the tough decisions that needed to be taken as well as taking credit for the Coalition's successes.NorthernPowerhouse said:
It was great how Cameron managed to take the credit for everything that went right and lib dems got blame for everything that went wrong.camel said:
It's amazing that the tories have managed to disassociate themselves from the last nine years whilst the LibDems have failed quite miserably to extricate themselves from culpability.kle4 said:
It's an unusual situation given the Tories have won in government for 9 years one way or another and a big win should not really happen. If it does it might be that big majority is not the firewall that Blairs was given the letters was first term.camel said:
The Blair approach? Win big enough first up to last for three terms?noneoftheabove said:
Sounds like we will have a big tory majority combined with loads of marginals for them to defend in 2024. The difficulty for the tories at that election will be half the marginals will be in affluent seats and half in post industrial struggling towns. I fail to see how they keep those parts of their coalition together.Sean_F said:
True. And, the Conservatives can probably afford such losses better than Labour, as they tend to be in affluent seats with very large Conservative majorities. If the Tory lead in Esher & Walton is cut from 23,000 to 5,000, it's still a Conservative seat in the Commons.Philip_Thompson said:The double whammy is that not just are the Tories keeping more Remainers but those they lose are going mainly to the Lib Dems.
While Labour are not just losing more Leavers, more of them going direct to the Tories.
I really hope not.
The Libdems on the other hand spent the entire five years like rabbits in headlights, constantly apologising for their part in any of the early tough decisions. So much so, that by the time positive signs were really appearing in the economy & employment the damage was done because the Libdems had allowed themselves to become perceived by the public as unwilling hostages to fortune rather than a strong and stable Coalition partner.
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That is a long period for fieldwork - it covers almost 2 weeks.Byronic said:0 -
Wasn't that David Herdson? Who famously got it bang on?BannedinnParis said:iirc, the last day of campaigning saw at least one CON on here come back saying it was worse out than even the polls had suggested and I had at least one other, on a different media, saying the same at the other end of the country.
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This didn't appear to be reported at the time...
Mr Johnson then removed the phone from his pocket and looked at the screen.
"It's a terrible, terrible photo, and I apologise, obviously, to the family, and all those who have terrible experiences in the NHS," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-507176060 -
If the threat is a Boris visit I would have thought it should be 'Don't visit Richmond, or the dog gets it'. Boris is widely despised in the seat, not just because of Brexit but because of his Heathrow lies. Goldsmith is, at least, respected for his Heathrow stance.logical_song said:
Visit Richmond or the dog gets it!Anorak said:New take on the 'Dead Cat Strategy'.
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/12040515887777587220 -
Politicians in all parties spend far too much time apologising for what look like mistakes with hindsight, but where the decisions were difficult and the implications of a different path being taken are never known.fitalass said:
Another way of looking at it is that the Conservatives enthusiastically embraced Coalition government & made a determined effort to make it work. They also didn't shy away from taking responsibility for the tough decisions that needed to be taken as well as taking credit for the Coalition's successes.NorthernPowerhouse said:
It was great how Cameron managed to take the credit for everything that went right and lib dems got blame for everything that went wrong.camel said:
It's amazing that the tories have managed to disassociate themselves from the last nine years whilst the LibDems have failed quite miserably to extricate themselves from culpability.kle4 said:
It's an unusual situation given the Tories have won in government for 9 years one way or another and a big win should not really happen. If it does it might be that big majority is not the firewall that Blairs was given the letters was first term.camel said:
The Blair approach? Win big enough first up to last for three terms?noneoftheabove said:
Sounds like we will have a big tory majority combined with loads of marginals for them to defend in 2024. The difficulty for the tories at that election will be half the marginals will be in affluent seats and half in post industrial struggling towns. I fail to see how they keep those parts of their coalition together.Sean_F said:
True. And, the Conservatives can probably afford such losses better than Labour, as they tend to be in affluent seats with very large Conservative majorities. If the Tory lead in Esher & Walton is cut from 23,000 to 5,000, it's still a Conservative seat in the Commons.Philip_Thompson said:The double whammy is that not just are the Tories keeping more Remainers but those they lose are going mainly to the Lib Dems.
While Labour are not just losing more Leavers, more of them going direct to the Tories.
I really hope not.
The Libdems on the other hand spent the entire five years like rabbits in headlights, constantly apologising for their part in any of the early tough decisions. So much so, that by the time positive signs were really appearing in the economy & employment the damage was done because the Libdems had allowed themselves to become perceived by the public as unwilling hostages to fortune rather than a strong and stable Coalition partner.0 -
Yes, DYOR.eek said:
That is a long period for fieldwork - it covers almost 2 weeks.Byronic said:
Personally, I think it's bollocks. They have a Tory vote-share of 39%. I do not believe the Tories will go under 40. They have too much of the Leave vote.
FWIW I stand by my official prediction at the very beginning of this election: a notably small Boris majority. 10-30. I still believe that is what we will get.
But crikey, it's nerve-racking0 -
I know one of these people. They're voting Tory this time.eek said:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...speedy2 said:I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/12040509107726336020 -
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Good let it close.nico67 said:
Yes he threw in the BBC comment to deflect from the horror interview earlier with ITV. But without the license fee the BBC will not survive in its current form .FrancisUrquhart said:
Just a thought...dead cat strategy again....the stuff about the kid not getting a bed is bad. What we do know, the media love to talk about themselves and the BBC going mental should anybody ever suggest that you know the BBC should ever be reformed in anyway.Byronic said:
But that's how it will be portrayed. Boris is making gaffes as we enter the final straight. The guest workers comment. This BBC idea. The kid in the photo - Why not look?Stocky said:
Why privatise? The opposite surely?Byronic said:Boris has just said he might abolish the BBC licence fee.
That's really quite stupid. Yes it makes logical sense, the BBC itself is considering a new structure, as the fee is unsustainable. But why say it NOW? Why say anything controversial NOW, when the election is almost over, and probably won?
This can easily be portrayed - esp by angry BBC journos - as Boris threatening to privatise our beloved Beeb, as well as the NHS, blah blah
Silly man.
He's probably as tired as the rest of them. Just three days to go. Help.
It is no longer fit for purpose.0 -
Serious question: if it’s a HP should Johnson resign?0
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Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!0
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From what I can gather, some might be due to worsening social care and the fall in NHS funding growth since 2010 from 4% to 1%/yr.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Reduction in the improvement of life expectancy. You get to wear PB's dunce cap for the day.melcf said:
Check this link and look into your soulNorthernPowerhouse said:
No winter crisis, quick lets find something else instead. A single child in a single hospital in the world's largest employer has had a poor experience.FrancisUrquhart said:I am sure the Maomentum tw@tter-sphere is firing up retweets galore of Boris photo clip.
I think he is going to need to find some sort of response.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/mortality-rates-are-on-the-rise-in-the-uk-so-why-is-no-one-talking-about-it
If not for Corbyn and Brexit, the Toris would be below 250 seats. Last ten years have been a disaster. The effects of which will last decades and take a generation to rectify.
Now the housing crisis, and Thatcher selling off the housing stock.
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2019/10/01/life-expectancy-in-england-whats-going-on/
Easily funded, of course. Even Lansley, ex-SoS for Health wants £30 billion/yr for the NHS immediately. But tax cuts must take priority; screw the poor.
To improve things without spending ~£30-50 billion/yr, maybe we should just find out why people live so long in some other well-known countries, e.g. Australia, Canada, France, Spain and Greece. It isn't just confined to 'elite' countries like Sweden and Switzerland with excellent (and in the latter very expensive) healthcare systems.0 -
Not. The difference between the two polls is 8%, not 4%.Andy_JS said:Believe it or not, the ICM and Survation polls are within the margin of error of each other, which is 4% to a confidence level of 99%.
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/0 -
Apart from spinning from media bods... no they don't particularly. In fact I've seen plenty quite enthused that Labour is pursuing an aggressive strategy into Tory marginals. And their ground game does appear to be well subscribed.Byronic said:
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.Mysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
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Depends whether it clashes with the whippet racing or 'Ecky Thump' classes.contrarian said:
Your term 'Flat Cap Fred' both breathtakingly patronising and wildly anachronistic, perfectly encapsulates why he willMysticrose said:To show I can be balanced, I don't think the 1% nudge up by Labour in ICM is the relevant part as that's MoE stuff.
It's the fact that it 'only' shows a 6% gap.
I still don't believe 'Flat Cap Fred' will turn out for the tories on the day.0 -
Semi viral lol. Andrew Neil went viral viral and its Labour who have fallen in the polls. Strange reaction by Johnson but I'm pretty sure they have chairs in hospitals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Interestingly the ITV journo who asked the question is friends with a Corbyn loving old mate of mine, he used to be a Hope not Hate activist so its an interesting path to ITV journo but I expect he was hoping for a gotcha moment.0 -
GODSDAMMIT HOW MANY TIMES HAVE I POINTED THIS OUT! SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATORS BASED ON THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM ARE NOT VALID FOR NONREPRESENTATIVE SAMPLING SINCE THE ASSUMPTIONS DO NOT HOLD! THEY STOPPED DOING THIS IN THE STATES A DECADE AGO! THE BPC GUIDELINES SPECIFICALLY SAYS THE POLLING COMPANIES SHOULD TELL YOU WHAT THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS IN THE SMALL PRINT OF THE POLL. SO IF YOU OPEN UP THE POLL DETAILS FROM THE COMPANY IT WILL TELL YOU WHAT YOU SHOULD USE!Andy_JS said:Believe it or not, the ICM and Survation polls are within the margin of error of each other, which is 4% to a confidence level of 99%.
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/
AAARGH! I AM USING TOO MANY CAPITAL LETTERS! BAD VIEWCODE!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.Byronic said:
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997.
Here he is at around 1:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.0 -
That was before 2017...peter_from_putney said:Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!
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Can someone reboot viewcode? Thx.
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We won’t know the impact of these moments until polling day0
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No shit.CorrectHorseBattery said:We won’t know the impact of these moments until polling day
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I reckon the really committed Labour voters will vote more than once now, or at least press harder with the pencil when the tick the boxCorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
That woman is odious. Shrill, hectoring, self-righteous, petulant and narcissistic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The NHS seems to specialise, these days, in producing a particularly unpleasant form of left wing doctor, full of self regard and moral entitlement, and devoid of common sense.
I think it is because we worship the NHS so unquestioningly, those working within it start to feel like they are saints and deities.
EDIT: Actually, that's a bit harsh. She's just relentless and annoying. The polls are making me mad.1 -
Average of polls from the last 7 days, (including the new ones):
Con 42.7%
Lab 33.2%
LD 12.4%0 -
One thing to note. Stunts by journalists / activists can sometimes have the opposite affect. Gordo and the Sun over his poorly written letter, Cameron being confronted by the Lib Dem dad with the disabled kid and I think even Jezza getting doorstepped on a number of occasions has got public sympathy even if what he is being accused of isn't good.
What could be a just as big an impact, is I presume Boris will be de-activated for the rest of the campaign.0 -
Interesting that ICM has already been added to Wiki but no sign of Survation yet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
I’ve noticed that in the past.GIN1138 said:Interesting that ICM has already been added to Wiki but no sign of Survation yet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Re the Johnson not giving a shit about kid in hospital thing (unsurprising for a man who doesn't even know how many of the things he has himself) - why did he take the guy's phone and put it in his pocket? Isn't that quite an odd response, and indicative of a character that is both controlling and dishonest? He basically stole the guy's phone!0
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Aren't the students already voting twice...isam said:
I reckon the really committed Labour voters will vote more than once now, or at least press harder with the pencil when the tick the boxCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.speedy2 said:
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.Byronic said:
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997.
Here he is at around 1:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.0 -
It was there a few hours ago, it seems to be vandalism.GIN1138 said:Interesting that ICM has already been added to Wiki but no sign of Survation yet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
When my Dad was in hospital in 2016, every member of staff we spoke to said the NHS should be privatised, and they were glad Leave won. I remember someone on here telling me they only said that to keep me happy, even though half the time it wasn't even me that had spoken to them!Byronic said:
That woman is odious. Shrill, hectoring, self-righteous, petulant and narcissistic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The NHS seems to specialise, these days, in producing a particularly unpleasant form of left wing doctor, full of self regard and moral entitlement, and devoid of common sense.
I think it is because we worship the NHS so unquestioningly, those working within it start to feel like they are saints and deities.0 -
If ICM and the predictions from PSA are close, well then the small things that the Tories have dropped may have big repercussions...
What is cutting through and what will undecideds be thinking in the booth? (So many people decide at that point...)
Will people see Boris Johnson pocketing a journalists phone? Agreeing to hire a thug to beat up a journalist?
Lying about the Irish sea border, nurses, and hospital numbers? Incapable of serious factual debate - merely rhetoric and straplines.
Will they realise that the Tories will do almost zero on the biggest issue facing humanity - climate change (the British actions of which will have a global ripple effect one way or another)?
Will they really be scared of SNP/Nicola Sturgeon mediating Corbyn? Is that a threat or an offer indeed?
Will they compare Labour's terrible dealing with anti-Semitism with Conservatives institutional levels of racism and Boris Johnson's direct racism, homophobia, scathing attacks on the poor, and alleged misogyny?
Alas these are big IFs, and going by other polls, focus groups of voters from working class backgrounds, and people who are tribally deluded (like many poster on this forum), the Con parroting of 'get brexit done' 'dither and delay' seems to be hypnotically entrancing a significant percentage of the voting population.
BUT some of this reality painted above may come through to enough undecideds, and still a slightly larger amount may vote tactically to support SNP, Lab, LD and a few SDLP, ALL, Green. Claire Wright, and PC to just turn the numbers into NOC...
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According to the FT, a NI poll conducted by LucidTalk, a Belfast pollster has the following results:
10 DUP
6 SF
2 SDLP
tho Belfast North, and Foyle are on a knife-edge
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That was when Martin Boon was running it. He's now running Deltapoll alongside Joe Twyman previously of YouGovGIN1138 said:
That was before 2017...peter_from_putney said:Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!
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He used to work with Tony King a lot, who has now passed away. Didn't he become VC at Essex Uni?Andy_JS said:
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.speedy2 said:
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.Byronic said:
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997.
Here he is at around 1:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.0 -
No. She is just tired of Johnson's lies about the NHS. My niece in law is a doctor and clinical lecturer at a big teaching hospital. She is a natural Tory but would happily tear Johnson apart limb from limb - and given that she has a personality resembling a cross between Hattie Jacques and James Robertson Justice from the old films, Boris would do well to avoid her.Byronic said:
That woman is odious. Shrill, hectoring, self-righteous, petulant and narcissistic.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The NHS seems to specialise, these days, in producing a particularly unpleasant form of left wing doctor, full of self regard and moral entitlement, and devoid of common sense.
I think it is because we worship the NHS so unquestioningly, those working within it start to feel like they are saints and deities.0 -
I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
Go figure.0 -
What's the point of someone doing that? The poll still exists whether it's on the Wiki polling page or not...Nobidexx said:
It was there a few hours ago, it seems to be vandalism.GIN1138 said:Interesting that ICM has already been added to Wiki but no sign of Survation yet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election 0 -
Ivor Crewe got cut.Andy_JS said:
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.speedy2 said:
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.Byronic said:
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997.
Here he is at around 1:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.3 -
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
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I thought they usually did that at a much younger age?paulyork64 said:
Ivor Crewe got cut.Andy_JS said:
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.speedy2 said:
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.Byronic said:
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997.
Here he is at around 1:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor. 0 -
Strong and stable government* under Boris, or chaos under Jeremy Corbyn.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
(*Terms and conditions apply, including but not limited to attempts to sort Brexit long-term without an extension to the implementation period, the apparent alarm in Whitehall over squaring the circle of the NI solution, the realities of BJ's own version of the magic money tree, how the city copes with its new-found "freedom" post-Brexit, grumbles about holiday queues and paying to get into Spain, failure of imaginary hospitals to materialise, continued barrel-scraping levels of funding for many public services. Etc.)
I'm not disputing the potential impacts of a hung parliament (or Lab win).. but I remain to be convinced that a thumping Boris majority would provide all of the oven-ready baubles thus far promised.2 -
It's interesting that ICM and ComRes were among the pollsters that had the biggest Con leads in 2017 and this time they have the smallest.MikeSmithson said:
That was when Martin Boon was running it. He's now running Deltapoll alongside Joe Twyman previously of YouGovGIN1138 said:
That was before 2017...peter_from_putney said:Hasn't OGH always referred to ICM as being "The Gold Standard" when comparing pollsters? Well perhaps now's the time for them to prove him right ... or not as the case may be!
Do you think they've over-adjusted for 2017? Or is it just coincidence?0 -
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.0 -
Johnson went into full Robo-Bozo mode in his handling of the reporter with the photo on his phone.
Unfit for office.1 -
The other amusing thing is that outsourcing to private providers is dreadful Tory privatisation and an end of the NHS as we know it, except when it's outsourcing to GPs as set up by Attlee, of course.contrarian said:I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
Go figure.0 -
I'm guessing those figures mean North Down goes to the DUP, but they lose Belfast South to the SDLP, and the SDLP also gains Foyle from Sinn Fein. I don't think any other combinations produce those numbers.llef said:According to the FT, a NI poll conducted by LucidTalk, a Belfast pollster has the following results:
10 DUP
6 SF
2 SDLP
tho Belfast North, and Foyle are on a knife-edge0 -
Ask BastaniCorrectHorseBattery said:Serious question: if it’s a HP should Johnson resign?
0 -
Oh, the genocide-enabling tosser has an oh-so-controversial opinion.Andy_JS said:Brendan O'Neill on the "people of talent/colour" controversy:
"And yet, remarkably, there are still some people-of-colour truthers out there. With astonishing speed they have become a new breed of conspiracy theorist. ‘He did say “people of colour” and the mainstream media should stop covering that up’, they say, insanely, coming off like leftish versions of Obama birth truthers.
Why is this happening? Because the anti-Boris brigade has gone mad. It’s been brewing for a couple of weeks and now it has exploded into public life. The ‘people of colour’ conspiracy theory confirms how unhinged the Corbynista wing of politics in particular has become."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/12/06/the-hysteria-of-the-boris-bashers/
When justice comes, it will come for Brendan.
0 -
record level of wind generated electricity in the uk yesterday.
For the day as a whole...
Yesterday #wind generated 43.7% of British electricity, more than nuclear 20.5%, gas 12.8%, biomass 7.9%, imports 7.4%, coal 3.1%, hydro 1.7%, solar 1.3%, storage 1.1%, other 0.5%, national demand 754 GWh *excl. non-renewable distributed generation0 -
Of course the biggest fallout from polling day is how much will the result affect Correct Horse Battery’s post count. A hung parliament could mean he’ll reach 3,000 by Sunday but a Tory majority means I might not get to read anything new from him for another 5 years. It’s a massive election in so many ways.0
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Eh? Who are liberals in this context? And is it not more odd that those who advocate adopting French or German health models do not also advocate increasing health spending to French and German levels?contrarian said:I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
Go figure.0 -
Aren’t you meant to be pretending that you’re a LD?Mysticrose said:
'Cos Johnson brings nothing but strong and stable government.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
FFS.
We've had 9 yrs of tory shambles. It's time for a radical shift.2 -
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,0 -
Why are you such a dick?Brom said:Of course the biggest fallout from polling day is how much will the result affect Correct Horse Battery’s post count. A hung parliament could mean he’ll reach 3,000 by Sunday but a Tory majority means I might not get to read anything new from him for another 5 years. It’s a massive election in so many ways.
0 -
1
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Hung parliament = general election in 2020, most likely.0
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I was going to ask who these liberals are as well. And the French and German models are completely different, just because they are European (so are we) doesnt mean they are interchangeable. I like the German model but not the French.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Eh? Who are liberals in this context? And is it not more odd that those who advocate adopting French or German health models do not also advocate increasing health spending to French and German levels?contrarian said:I've always wondered why liberals think the German and French socio economic models are great except for their health systems, which apparently are dastardly victorian workhouses.
Go figure.0 -
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.wills66 said:
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.0 -
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit doneeek said:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...speedy2 said:I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/12040509107726336020 -
What odds no deal in Jan 31 with a hung parliament?Andy_JS said:Hung parliament = general election in 2020, most likely.
Shame there is no market for this on betfair as I wouldnt mind hedging some no deal risk. This is the first time I think the market would be underestimating the chance of no deal rather than significantly overestimating.0 -
One benefit of all that hot air in an election campaign.llef said:record level of wind generated electricity in the uk yesterday.
For the day as a whole...
Yesterday #wind generated 43.7% of British electricity, more than nuclear 20.5%, gas 12.8%, biomass 7.9%, imports 7.4%, coal 3.1%, hydro 1.7%, solar 1.3%, storage 1.1%, other 0.5%, national demand 754 GWh *excl. non-renewable distributed generation2 -
Next she will be forgetting her age - oh, that's the other one.matt said:
Aren’t you meant to be pretending that you’re a LD?Mysticrose said:
'Cos Johnson brings nothing but strong and stable government.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
FFS.
We've had 9 yrs of tory shambles. It's time for a radical shift.0 -
You’ve certainly got a semi over it.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Is anyone planning on buying currency between now and Thursday night?0
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"Anecdata" is fine. It doesn't work in a medical context because people do not reliably know whether they are getting better or why. They have a much better handle on who they intend to vote for.BannedinnParis said:
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.Byronic said:
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etcMysticrose said:
Yepbrokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Conversely, polling is not science to set against "anecdata." Proper medical science doesn't ask how people feel, it measures them. Polling is just anecdata aggregation. It's like asking 100 people instead of one whether they think turmeric capsules are helping keep their stage 4 cancer at bay, and pretending the result is useful.
Add to that : it is much easier and more tempting to lie to pollsters, than face to face, and that pollsters are in such disarray they can't even assemble a random sample to work off at the moment. Well sourced anecdotes are at least as reliable a guide.0 -
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.0 -
It is absolutely not the defining moment of the election.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It is however a taste of the regime to come. No surprise though, surely.
0 -
OT Dan Hodges' mum is getting rave reviews for the Netflix BBC dementia/whodunnit drama Elizabeth is Missing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-507117790 -
Todays ICM in Electoral Calculus produces
CON 320
LAB 252
LD 15
SNP 41
PC 3
GRN 1
NOM available at 5.1 on Betfair0 -
Not as much trouble as the country as a whole. Whether you like it or note everything that Byronic lists there will come to pass if we have a hung Parliament., And a whole lot more shit as well.stodge said:
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.Byronic said:Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,0 -
Well - that's one way to shut down criticism or debate - cry misogyny.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
For what it's worth my wife likes the Lib Dems generally (except revoke policy), really admires our local Lib Dem candidate but really dislikes Jo.
1 -
We did. A lot of candidates thought it would be a drubbing and had to kowtow to jeremy when wrong. But they do appear to be down fron last time, so if they are wrong they need to be even wronger than then.brokenwheel said:
Pretty sure we had stuff like this last time...kjohnw1 said:
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1203996698248466433wooliedyed said:Does the feedback from politicians, journos and canvassers feel like a 6 point gap with Labour at Blair 05 levels?
0 -
Does it feel like Westmorland could go Tory this time? It's almost split 50/50 on Brexit and was very close last time, with MRP also predicting a close result.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit doneeek said:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...speedy2 said:I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/12040509107726336020 -
With hindsight an interesting strategy for them would be to almost have ignored Brexit. Say you know where we stand on that but we have much more to us than just Brexit. Talk mainly about the environment, education and a positive vision of Britains future in the world.Richard_Nabavi said:
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.0 -
One thing at this point in 2017 Survation had the result pretty much spot on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
And they also got the 2015 election spot on too (although sadly Damian didn't have enough belief in his poll to publish it)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Past glory's are no guarantee of future success but they are certainly the pollsters to beat for the rest of the competition.0 -
yes, you're right:Andy_JS said:
I'm guessing those figures mean North Down goes to the DUP, but they lose Belfast South to the SDLP, and the SDLP also gains Foyle from Sinn Fein. I don't think any other combinations produce those numbers.llef said:According to the FT, a NI poll conducted by LucidTalk, a Belfast pollster has the following results:
10 DUP
6 SF
2 SDLP
tho Belfast North, and Foyle are on a knife-edge
https://www.irishnews.com/news/generalelection/2019/12/09/news/dup-will-lose-to-sdlp-in-south-belfast-but-beat-sinn-fe-in-in-north-belfast-poll-suggests-1785383/0 -
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.stodge said:Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.0 -
People do vote for a hung parliament. I did in 2010, it's just that as ever you are reliant on others to get your way.0
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The evidence that female politicians have a harder job being liked, and in particular are more hated, is quite strong. I dont think voters and commentators set out to be harsher on women politicians, but equally it is fair to point out the reality that we do.Floater said:
Well - that's one way to shut down criticism or debate - cry misogyny.stodge said:
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.Richard_Nabavi said:In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
For what it's worth my wife likes the Lib Dems generally (except revoke policy), really admires our local Lib Dem candidate but really dislikes Jo.1
