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GN all another exciting day ahead!0
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Soooo …. that gives us last polls on the Sunday before of: 14 11 10 9 15 9 8 12 7 12. Last two (Kantar/ICM) are more than a week old though.
Maybe an ORB to come? SurveyMonkey? Perhaps some weirdo one-offs like from Wired in 2017?0 -
And the Tory's last ditch message should be "If you want sane Labour back you need to give Corbyn a kicking".nico67 said:A horror poll for Labour .
And it can’t be put down to unusually low turnout in younger people . 19% of women are still undecided , Labour just edge the Tories in that group .
The Tories have a huge lead in men and Labour are being trounced in the over 55s .
Labours last ditch message in those Midlands and Northern seats really needs to be now would you trust the Tories with a huge majority.0 -
Plugging that into my model gives:
Con: 404
Lab: 173
LDM: 20
SNP: 31*
PC: 3
Grn: 1
* Scotland is so marginal that a few percent worth of tactical voting is the difference between SNP 40 and SNP 20.
Batley, Bradford, Dewsbury, Halifax, Burries, Newport W, Cov S, West Brom E all falling. This would be a seismic re-alignment.1 -
Those will be the Maomentumers you find on twitter spending their trust fund money.noisywinter said:bizarrely betfair still implies the chance of a Lab majority at 2%
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Can you link to some? Always very entertaining.FrancisUrquhart said:And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.
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SNP 20? Now you've got my attention.Chameleon said:Plugging that into my model gives:
Con: 404
Lab: 173
LDM: 20
SNP: 31*
PC: 3
Grn: 1
* Scotland is so marginal that a few percent worth of tactical voting is the difference between SNP 40 and SNP 20.
Batley, Bradford, Dewsbury, Halifax, Burries, Newport W, Cov S, West Brom E all falling. This would be a seismic re-alignment.
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I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
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Momentum will probably go this way -WhisperingOracle said:
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.HYUFD said:
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of WatfordWhisperingOracle said:
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.HYUFD said:
Keir Starmer and Tony BlairNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed on the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could only win it back
By increased work quotas. Would it not in that case be simpler
for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?0 -
I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.0
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The only word of caution I would state if this is the case, there is the prospect of shy Labour (in the way lots of people would never admit in public that they actually quite liked Thatcher).Byronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
All my Labour friends on social media, bar one, have gone very quiet about Corbyn. In real life, they always state they still like Labour brand and excuse it with despite Corbyn etc.0 -
A wise move. I think this makes 20-40 seat territory more likely, but I don't think there will be a landslide either.KentRising said:I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
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Much as this poll is great for the Tories I'd still be worried if I was a Conservative that anti-Corbyn voters won't turn out as they don't think much of Johnson either and staying at home is easier than breaking with decades of tradition and voting Labour.Byronic said:Weird how this poll feels more significant than all others. Why?
Partly: confirmation bias, for sure. All non-racist, non-Jew-haters want to see Labour thoroughly defeated and disgraced. That is the righteous position. We are all in danger of seeing what we want to see.
BUT, also, this feels like it captures a genuine mood shift. BMG also showed a significant slide against Racist Labour. This kinda cements it. Who wants to vote for C*nts? And, not only that, Loser Marxisr C*nts?
Die, Corbyn's Labour, Die.0 -
I doubt it will be 6%. YouGov normal polling has still been ~10%. It might still be very tight on seats though.KentRising said:I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
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GMB Survation had a 1% Tory lead in its final 2017 poll, tonight its final 2019 poll has a 14% Tory lead, there has clearly been a big shift to the Tories as we enter the last week from the Gold Standard pollsterKentRising said:I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
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I have often remarked that Northern Ireland is ignored so often and so diligently it's equivalent to hemispatial neglect. The UK is not an island.Byronic said:The UK is very much worth preserving...We are an island.
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Tories now getting a massive 76% of the 2015 Leave vote, up from 70% from the last poll. Surely that means the red wall collapses.nico67 said:A horror poll for Labour .
And it can’t be put down to unusually low turnout in younger people . 19% of women are still undecided , Labour just edge the Tories in that group .
The Tories have a huge lead in men and Labour are being trounced in the over 55s .
Labours last ditch message in those Midlands and Northern seats really needs to be now would you trust the Tories with a huge majority.
(By the way the tory lead is actually 13.6% but has been rounded up to 14%).0 -
He is not acceptable to Momentum and they now control the membership, Pidcock or Long Bailey are their choice and if so if Boris does get a landslide we are looking at another decade of Tory rule unless the LDs can overtake Labour and win the centreWhisperingOracle said:
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.HYUFD said:
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of WatfordWhisperingOracle said:
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.HYUFD said:
Keir Starmer and Tony BlairNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0 -
I've been there. I went on a plane. I may have mentioned it.Malmesbury said:
As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.Theuniondivvie said:
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.Byronic said:
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.Theuniondivvie said:
Sacrifice the Union you say?Byronic said:
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u 0 -
[deleted]0
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If, and this is a very very big if, this poll is correct and Labour are hammered.
Corbyn will obviously resign, but, does the party move to the middle or jump further to the left?0 -
https://twitter.com/corbyn4pm1989/status/1203833410281787392KeithJenner said:
Can you link to some? Always very entertaining.FrancisUrquhart said:And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.
https://twitter.com/lewis_3004/status/12038333401529466900 -
Oh and the look on Philip Hammonds & Dominic Grieves face 😆MarqueeMark said:
That would be a hell of a list achievements for Boris.kjohnw1 said:
1935 general election repeat ? If landslide happens and I think the runes are showing its gonna happen, Corbyn finished, Farage seen off,Brexit done, Remain destroyed, saved from Marxism, a proper Tory majority ,what's not to likeMarqueeMark said:
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
He can retire next Christmas. Job done.0 -
Phone survey so expect some shy Labour. Corbyn is toxic.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/corbyn4pm1989/status/1203833410281787392KeithJenner said:
Can you link to some? Always very entertaining.FrancisUrquhart said:And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.
https://twitter.com/lewis_3004/status/12038333401529466900 -
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One in four LibDem voters have walked away from them during the campaign. That is going to require some very VERY precise targeting to be making gains.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tories up 5%, Labour up 7% in the same timescale.0 -
Hopefully he doesn't go and smash up somewhere like he used to when he got angry...CarlottaVance said:Not happy....
twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1203833399250685952?s=200 -
All the tw@tters must be dead confused....they have had anti-Tory hashtags trending for days now.0
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That WW1984 trailer is the best edited trailer of all time. Extraordinary stuff.
Meanwhile, polls!1 -
That just goes to show how deep the fakery is. Next you'll be saying you believe in the existence of Australia.viewcode said:
I've been there. I went on a plane. I may have mentioned it.Malmesbury said:
As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.Theuniondivvie said:
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.Byronic said:
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.Theuniondivvie said:
Sacrifice the Union you say?Byronic said:
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u1 -
Thanks. I always love a sample size complaint.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/corbyn4pm1989/status/1203833410281787392KeithJenner said:
Can you link to some? Always very entertaining.FrancisUrquhart said:And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.
https://twitter.com/lewis_3004/status/12038333401529466900 -
If there was an absolute landslide, which I see as unlikely, the centrist-left faction of the parliamentary party - not the original centrists, or the extra-parliamentary membership - would make it extremely difficult for that to take place, unless it was under some agreement to moderate or expand the manifesto. I'm not sure that either of those two figures would be willing to do that yet.HYUFD said:
He is not acceptable to Momentum and they now control the membership, Pidcock or Long Bailey are their choice and if so if Boris does get a landslide we are looking at another decade of Tory rule unless the LDs can overtake Labour and win the centreWhisperingOracle said:
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.HYUFD said:
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of WatfordWhisperingOracle said:
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.HYUFD said:
Keir Starmer and Tony BlairNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0 -
Huh? It will show a Labour collapse in the Leave seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
I doubt it will be 6%. YouGov normal polling has still been ~10%. It might still be very tight on seats though.KentRising said:I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
Greater Manchester is gone!0 -
I have experienced the same. Most of my Corbynite friends have gone very quiet, bar a couple. The anti-Semitism stuff HAS cut through, because it is undeniable and inexcusable, and also because it destroys a key part of "Corbynism", i.e. that it is a necessarily and intrinsically fair and moral point of view.FrancisUrquhart said:
The only word of caution I would state if this is the case, there is the prospect of shy Labour (in the way lots of people would never admit in public that they actually quite liked Thatcher).Byronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
All my Labour friends on social media, bar one, have gone very quiet about Corbyn. In real life, they always state they still like Labour brand and excuse it with despite Corbyn etc.
It is very hard to say JEREMY IS RIGHT when your friendly opponent can then point to Jeremy eagerly supporting Holocaust deniers, or admiring Hamas, or defending terrorism. It means your support base is embarrassed, and they quietly desert you. Because Corbynista tend to be young and idealistic and they want to appear virtuous.
Corbyn is being defeated by the same forces that made him.0 -
An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:
Men
CON 51
LAB 24
Women
LAB 38
CON 38
Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.0 -
With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:
CON 346
LAB 229
SNP 40
LD 13
PC 3
GRN 11 -
Doesn't make sense on a 14% UK lead in Momentums own back yard?CarlottaVance said:
Happy if it is!0 -
I wont count them because poll herding always occurs in the final days.RobD said:
We may have more polls in the coming daysspeedy2 said:With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:
CON 346
LAB 229
SNP 40
LD 13
PC 3
GRN 1
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I've always said it was totally wrong to give women the vote*.speedy2 said:An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:
Men
CON 51
LAB 24
Women
LAB 38
CON 38
Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.
*I am joking obviously.0 -
Subsamples, not even once!argyllrs said:0 -
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Tom Newton Dunn
Tory campaign chiefs to finally let Boris Johnson loose on high street walkabouts in a last 3 day bid to win over ‘red wall’ Labour heartlands #GE2019
https://t.co/UzmMWLt2I70 -
Boris Johnson is to visit West Yorkshire, Cheshire and Leicestershire in 72 hours. North Wales and South West will also decide the outcome of the election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770213/Boris-Johnson-lay-Jeremy-Corbyn-leaving-EU.html
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New Tory ad on Youtube homepage0
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Another Survation on Weds.0
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They are letting him loose on the streets and in the pubs. What could go wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:Tom Newton Dunn
Tory campaign chiefs to finally let Boris Johnson loose on high street walkabouts in a last 3 day bid to win over ‘red wall’ Labour heartlands #GE2019
https://t.co/UzmMWLt2I7 0 -
Yes, now the final attack into the Labour heartlands when they have little time to respondFrancisUrquhart said:Boris Johnson is to visit West Yorkshire, Cheshire and Leicestershire in 72 hours. North Wales and South West will also decide the outcome of the election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770213/Boris-Johnson-lay-Jeremy-Corbyn-leaving-EU.html0 -
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Interesting once again re Tory Remainers .
This aspect has been largely ignored because they were gaining most of the Leave vote.0 -
Cant help but feel that if there is a genuine difference in the advertising blitz between now and Thursday that will help with the undecideds for the tories0
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As ever, beware subsamples - the Scottish one in this poll has SLab on 32% with SNP on 34% and Scon on 26%......which would be at considerable variance with full base polls conducted in Scotland...argyllrs said:0 -
Is this where we see a lead of 5% :-)AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Another Survation on Weds.
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Should be quite a few on Wed I think - last time we had final day polls from Ipsos, BMG, Surv, ICM, YG, CR and PB. Several of them were larger samples than usual too.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Another Survation on Weds.
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We are of one mind.FrancisUrquhart said:
Is this where we see a lead of 5% :-)AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Another Survation on Weds.
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I don't know if I can take the pressure.Andrew said:
Should be quite a few on Wed I think - last time we had final day polls from Ipsos, BMG, Surv, ICM, YG, CR and PB. Several of them were larger samples than usual too.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Another Survation on Weds.
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Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%0 -
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There are no outliers.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
After that horror Survation as a Labour supporter it can only get better or not as the case maybe !
At this point I’d be freaking out if the election was being fought over a no deal exit from the EU , that was always my absolute worst nightmare.
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Centrist Phone will be re-crunching the numbers and find Tory lead is still only 3.1%....speaking of which...
https://twitter.com/MarkJLittlewood/status/1203837380983164929
Of course I would never be so rude.0 -
As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.MarqueeMark said:Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
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Very sadden to hear this news about Plato/Phillipa and Mark Senior, when did this happen?rcs1000 said:
I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.StuartDickson said:I understand that Rod Crosby died some time ago.
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Is that "a" new ad or "the latest" ad (Hung Parliament to Zadok the Priest)?noisywinter said:New Tory ad on Youtube homepage
https://www.youtube.com/user/webcameronuk/videos
(Time they updated that url.....)1 -
Betfair blue firewall definitely broken....now 1.27 with £60k of bets in a hr.0
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"Corbyn and Swinson between them have royally bollocksed up Remain.Byronic said:
As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.MarqueeMark said:Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
Ah, fuck 'em....."0 -
Yup. Men are programmed, by evolution, to defend the family and the tribe. They are soldier ants. Darwin demands that they protect and provide (ideally).nunu2 said:
Corbyn is a clear threat to all of that: nation, tribe, town, family. I am not surprised that men despise him.
I think British men have just realised that Corbyn is a traitor, an appeaser, and an antiwhite anti-Jewish racist, and THEY DO NOT LIKE IT
These views will be hard to budge
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0
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Not a surprise, the Libdems have completely given up in this seat. As I posted a few days ago, they don't even seem to be sending out leaflets there in the post.StuartDickson said:LD drifting in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey: 16/1.
(Danny Alexander’s old seat.)0 -
Didn't they have 3 "final" polls in 2017?WhisperingOracle said:twitter.com/Survation/status/1203838706857267201
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Yes. It's interesting that they're so keen to stress the undecideds and tactical voting. The Tories are clearly ahead and probably in the 20-35 range at least at the moment, but the unusual aspects of this election are still in play.FrancisUrquhart said:
Didn't they have 3 "final" polls in 2017?WhisperingOracle said:twitter.com/Survation/status/1203838706857267201
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My favourite is 10.01PM on an election night when people start with 'the exit poll is ALWAYS WRONG!'.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a conspiracy....
https://twitter.com/susDissonance/status/1203831395426164737
You come for The Curtice, you better not miss.0 -
I am not convinced by claims there are masses of people that really are undecided. There has been basically no variability in the gap for 5 weeks.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes. It's interesting that they're so keen to stress the undecideds and tactical voting. The Tories are clearly ahead and probably on the 20-40 range at the moment, but the unusual aspects of this election are still in play.FrancisUrquhart said:
Didn't they have 3 "final" polls in 2017?WhisperingOracle said:twitter.com/Survation/status/1203838706857267201
Tactical voting, shy Labour, and last minute cold feet Flat Cap Fred's, yes.0 -
I despise Bozo , Remainers will never forgive him for his role in the EU ref however the stakes at the election changed once he got the deal .Byronic said:
As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.MarqueeMark said:Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
Although the country is now majority for Remain when you ask the EU question , I think quite a few feel too much water has gone under the bridge now .
It does worry me what Johnson we’ll end up with after the election , I’m not sure anyone really knows. The EU just want to move on and will be relieved if there’s a majority to pass the deal .
The DUP really screwed up , when they had influence they should have pushed for a softer Brexit but hitched their wagon to the ERG.
Now they’ve overseen NI effectively hived off . No wonder Leo Varadkar loves the deal .0 -
Seriously @ByronicByronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
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Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...
How Labour party's own report lays bare its members' vile anti-Semetic slurs including a call for Jewish people to be 'annihilated'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770295/How-Labour-partys-report-lays-bare-members-vile-anti-Semetic-slurs.html0 -
Jeremy Corbyn will promise Britain’s jaded voters that a Labour government would put “money in your pocket”, as his party makes a last-ditch push to deprive Boris Johnson of a majority at Thursday’s general election.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/corbyn-launches-final-election-push-to-deny-tories-a-majority0 -
Oh dear, Mr Centrist Phone isn't happy...waves...
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203832300993228800
https://twitter.com/MarkJLittlewood/status/12038339594713006080 -
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexitolm said:
Seriously @ByronicByronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.0 -
The Channel4 debate tonight I watched, it was far more informing even for me, than the 2-way debates which were soundbites and defences.
Its an improvement that there's a lot of debates and that between them all millions of people are watching and hearing very different views and details on policies (more on the multi-party debates which are more free-flowing). Many posters on here may find little value, but we're not the audience, nor are the journalist critics. My housemates (who include a Tory, a Labour council candidate, a LD activist, a Green, and several people who've never voted) and my neighbours and colleagues have all seen at least bits of the multi-party debates and have all discussed issues raised, and found them interesting. Pure anecdote, yes, but enough to raise the question as to whether views here on the debates really reflect the value of these debates...
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I was a bit flippant about this debate earlier, but didn't really mean to be. I think all of them may have made a difference to a certain extent, but the polls of the debates themselves are quite blunt and undeveloped. It's important to bear in mind that this site tends to bias to the right rather than being nationally representative.olm said:The Channel4 debate tonight I watched, it was far more informing even for me, than the 2-way debates which were soundbites and defences.
Its an improvement that there's a lot of debates and that between them all millions of people are watching and hearing very different views and details on policies (more on the multi-party debates which are more free-flowing). Many posters on here may find little value, but we're not the audience, nor are the journalist critics. My housemates (who include a Tory, a Labour council candidate, a LD activist, a Green, and several people who've never voted) and my neighbours and colleagues have all seen at least bits of the multi-party debates and have all discussed issues raised, and found them interesting. Pure anecdote, yes, but enough to raise the question as to whether views here on the debates really reflect the value of these debates...1 -
olm said:
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexitolm said:
Seriously @ByronicByronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..
Your in great company.
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olm said:
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexitolm said:
Seriously @ByronicByronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Pure comedy gold.0 -
Griffin appears to be a fan of Corbyn. Can't imagine why.funkhauser said:
It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..
https://twitter.com/NickGriffinBU/status/1025630262108073984
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One thing that is amusing me is the assumption that not only are the polls significantly wrong, but significantly wrong in Labour's favour. Lots of people will be considering voting Tory for the first time in their lifetime, how keen will they be to declare that to the pollsters?
As for that twitter fight, I suspect that Mr Littlewood is extremely over the constant bull**** that a section of the Corbynite twitter try to spin. Although I'd argue that the judicious use of the block and mute buttons is an easier solution0 -
Well, a week ago Survation had Men Con 47.3% Lab 28.6% (Con lead by 18.7%) Women Con 38.2% Lab 38.3% (Lab lead by 0.1%) so the swing in the latest poll vs last week would seem to be driven wholly by men (or polling variance)nunu2 said:
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Lots of people saying it's all very uncertain, tactical voting, unusual movements in marginals etc.
Well in my entire living memory exactly the same thing has been said before every single GE.
I remember the end of the BBC1 10pm news the night before a Blair landslide Andrew Marr (then Political Editor) said that whilst everyone thought Lab was probably ahead there was still enormous uncertainty, people were hearing about strange movements in marginals etc.
Bottom line - the night before EVERY single British GE (and EVERY single US Presidential Election) the BBC always says it's all very uncertain, nobody is confident etc etc.
Two reasons:
1) They don't want to risk being wrong
2) They don't want to appear biased / discourage anyone from voting
So in summary the last minute analysis is completely meaningless because they always say exactly the same thing irrespective of the circumstances of the particular election.2 -
Another classic of the genre from Brain-dead Bastani. He's obviously reading the seat percentage off Wikipedia, not the vote percentage. Labour got 54.6% of the vote in 2017, an almost 11 point increase on 2015.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I made a very simple factual statement.funkhauser said:olm said:
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexitolm said:
Seriously @ByronicByronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Pure comedy gold.
You obviously find that amusing.
Are you saying that statement's wrong?
What do you mean 'pure comedy gold' huh?0 -
@funkhauserfunkhauser said:olm said:
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexitolm said:
Seriously @ByronicByronic said:
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RIDnunu2 said:
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..
Your in great company.
You haven't addressed the points I'm making. I invite you to.
@Byronic suggests negative traits about Corbyn.
I essentially responded that if you're voting on that basis Johnson is worse. He is recorded and not denied agreeing to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist his rich friend disagreed with. He has also directly made racist and homophobic statements.
What do you say to that precise matter?
P.s. You state 'you're in good company'. I'm not a Labour supporter, indeed never voted Labour, and won't this time. Nor have I ever voted LD or Con. I don't find Corbyn's shadow cabinet particularly smart, yet Johnson's cabinet make them seem diligent, knowledgeable and caring. That's really saying something.
But the distortions on this forum are a little too much to read and not respond to.1 -
I saw the UTV Northern Ireland debate earlier, that was also very interesting, and some of the statements given during the debate were significant to Northern Ireland's future.0
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DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly managed to get a lot of Tory-like soundbites in alas... And Sinn Fein's O'Neil was also a little robotic, the others much better. Though the public seem to prefer the soundbites (looking at focus-groups response to Boris Johnson and co).olm said:I saw the UTV Northern Ireland debate earlier, that was also very interesting, and some of the statements given during the debate were significant to Northern Ireland's future.
UUP, SDLP and ALL obviously at war with DUP/SF axis more than each other...0 -
What level of support in NI does Boris Johnson have for his proposed arrangements for NI? Is it even 10%? 5%?viewcode said:
I have often remarked that Northern Ireland is ignored so often and so diligently it's equivalent to hemispatial neglect.Byronic said:The UK is very much worth preserving...We are an island.
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There was some chat in the previous thread about the Lib Dems ready to outperform, by winning seats like Woking. "12-1 a bargain if you can afford to lose a tenner!"
Well I'm here to tell you this is nonsense. The tactical voting websites are recommending to vote for Labour. And there's a high-single digits percent in this constituency that will always vote Labour under any circumstance.
Even in a Remain leaning commuter seat, there's no chance whatsoever that the Lib Dems will be able to squeeze Labour hard enough and take enough Tory Remainers with them to win this seat. Meanwhile there is no chance in hell that tactical wet Remainers will be backing Corbyn.
Guildford is a more nuanced and already well told story but I'd be shocked if this did anything but stay blue.1 -
Get a grip! If the Tories win a majority, leaving the EU is guaranteed. If they don't, another EUref is guaranteed. Hardly anyone with a "Remainer" identity will vote Tory.Byronic said:As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
It was sanctions that destroyed Venezuela.0
