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I don't think she actually commented. She shared a Spectator article written by the mother of a child with Down's Syndrome. It's a good article, best for you both to read it and make up your own minds:https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/the-minimum-wage-denies-my-daughter-the-dignity-of-a-paid-job/bigjohnowls said:
Mrs BJ is a paraplegic and takes great offense at the comments.NorthernPowerhouse said:
I’m guessing she was referring to what Lord Freud said about many mentally disabled people been priced out of the job market because the minimum wage is far greater than the value they bring to their firm.bigjohnowls said:
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.Black_Rook said:(continued from previous)
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con
Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem
Hastings and Rye: Likely Con
Chipping Barnet: Tossup
Norwich North: Likely Con
Hendon: Lean Con
MK South: Likely Con
MK North: Lean Con
Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con
Putney: Lean Con
Harrow East: Likely Con
Watford: Likely Con
Crawley: Likely Con
Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con
Reading West: Likely Con
Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con
Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con
Lewes: Lean Con
Colchester: Safe Con
St Albans: Likely Lib Dem
Wimbledon: Likely Con
Guildford: Lean Con
Winchester: Lean Con
South Cambs: Lean Con
Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
But, as we all know it’s far better to pretend otherwise and to have disabled people dependent on social services paid 24/7 support than go out to work.
Whatever the context.1 -
Must...get...polling...fix.RobD said:Ten mins
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nico67 said:
I expect the Lib Dems will only make a few gains from their 2017 total and that means they’ll end up below what they’ve currently got .Byronic said:
The big yet anticipated surprises for me will be Tories UP in Scotland and the LDS DOWN from their present MP count.Luckyguy1983 said:
It's very possible.RobD said:
I wonder if we'll see Tories UP in Scotland?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Richard Leonard is quite the tactical genius...geoffw said:
Abandoning the unionist vote. Very clever.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:More signs that SLab may be in for a trouncing, briefing this to The Scotsman:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1203812060095799297
The latter now looks positively likely
Whatever else this GE will be (the end of the EU, the end of the UK, etc) it will be DEMOCRATIC and FUCKING COMPELLING
The BP standing down in Tory seats has really hurt their chances . As for the Tories in Scotland , many of the seats up there are quite marginal .
So anything could happen be it SNP taking upper 40s range to only a few gains .
Agree, I think the Lib Dems will under perform with 15 - 20 seats.2 -
Rain on turnout is often overplayed. But generally though what research shows is it’s more likely to have a slight effect on the C2DE demographicRichard_Tyndall said:
I have no idea but the Sky News paper review thought exactly the opposite. They believed that with Labour relying so heavily on both young first time voters and GOTV, bad weather on polling day would hit Labour disproportionately badly.tyson said:
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....peter_from_putney said:Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate.
Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
I understand the basic logic but have no idea if it is correct.
Because postal votes tend to favour the Conservatives lower turnout on the day would help them . Also the timing of any rain could be important . Younger voters and those more likely to favour Labour are more likely to vote in the afternoon and evening , older people in the morning .
The reason behind this is pretty logical in that the Tories core voting group the over 65s won’t be working so tend to go in the morning .0 -
Exactly that. Thanks.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't think she actually commented. She shared a Spectator article written by the mother of a child with Down's Syndrome. It's a good article, best for you both to read it and make up your own minds:https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/the-minimum-wage-denies-my-daughter-the-dignity-of-a-paid-job/bigjohnowls said:
Mrs BJ is a paraplegic and takes great offense at the comments.NorthernPowerhouse said:
I’m guessing she was referring to what Lord Freud said about many mentally disabled people been priced out of the job market because the minimum wage is far greater than the value they bring to their firm.bigjohnowls said:
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.Black_Rook said:(continued from previous)
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con
Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem
Hastings and Rye: Likely Con
Chipping Barnet: Tossup
Norwich North: Likely Con
Hendon: Lean Con
MK South: Likely Con
MK North: Lean Con
Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con
Putney: Lean Con
Harrow East: Likely Con
Watford: Likely Con
Crawley: Likely Con
Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con
Reading West: Likely Con
Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con
Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con
Lewes: Lean Con
Colchester: Safe Con
St Albans: Likely Lib Dem
Wimbledon: Likely Con
Guildford: Lean Con
Winchester: Lean Con
South Cambs: Lean Con
Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
But, as we all know it’s far better to pretend otherwise and to have disabled people dependent on social services paid 24/7 support than go out to work.
Whatever the context.0 -
TudorRose said:
In response to the chart showing where the leaders have been; this article suggests we may need to watch where they go next.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932Mr Johnson will also travel to south-west England, where he will warn against voting for the pro-EU Lib Dems.
Again?! Hmm...
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With the SNP still polling well below 2015 pre Brexit vote levels and the DUP still the largest party in NI there is no such choice to be madeTheuniondivvie said:
Sacrifice the Union you say?Byronic said:
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u0 -
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.Theuniondivvie said:
Sacrifice the Union you say?Byronic said:
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u0 -
So?
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If Survation shows a decent Tory MAJ I will officially go to bed, and go to bed tranquil and confident.
C'mon0 -
I'm having to squint at the scales but it looks like you may be right, which looks odd at first sight.viewcode said:
Um, hold on.rottenborough said:
If you mentally subtract the red crosses and keep the black crosses, the black crosses (Boris) are predominantly in Leave Tory consituencies.
If you mentally subtract the black crosses and keep the red crosses, the red crosses are more evenly distributed and are arguably more concentrated in Labour Remain areas.
Or have I misinterpreted this?
Possible theories:
1. A lot of Corbyn's appearances are in safe Labour Remain seats because they're full of Momentumites so he can hold big rallies there (makes him feel comfortable and enthuses his campaigning base; Labour has far more members than the Tories, and this helps to encourage them to volunteer to be deployed in places where Labour is actually interested in door knocking)
2. The remainder of Corbyn's appearances are disproportionately concentrated in the Tory/Leave quadrant because the Tories have far more Leave than Remain marginals. This likewise explains Johnson's distribution. Corbyn is attacking and Johnson is defending
Point 2 makes sense if the suggestions of differential swing are correct. If the Labour and Tory HQs are both convinced that a load of Labour Leave MPs are toast, then it might make more sense for Labour to try to mitigate the damage by targeting Tory-held marginals in areas where they feel they're doing slightly better, in the hope of picking some of them off?
If we assume both that the polls suggesting the Tories picking up a similar overall national share to last time are right, and that there is strong evidence of outperformance in the Labour Leave seats, then they might be going backwards a little in other parts of the country?
If the Tories are outperforming relative to the national picture in the North and underperforming in the South, whereas Labour's vote share is breaking in the opposite sense, then there could be more vulnerable Tory seats in the South than has been previously assumed. But this is pure speculation: apart from anything else, the diagram doesn't tell us where in the country the seats they've been visiting are.
Personally I'm sticking with the accumulation of evidence from the YouGov MRP, the 2017 results and my own reasoning, as posted a little earlier. I don't think that the threat to the Tories in the greater South-East, from either Labour or the Lib Dems, is that widespread at this election. There probably will be net Tory losses throughout the region but, taking into account the possibility of the odd gain here and there (Dagenham and Rainham, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington, Ipswich, Eastbourne, North Norfolk, Peterborough and Bedford all immediately spring to mind as targets,) they ought to be in single figures.0 -
I've been out of circulation for a few weeks due to family issues but am I right that this election is proving a real non event? Seems like the lowest key campaign since 2001 at least. Surprising in some ways given how uncertain the result is.0
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OMG0
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0
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BOOMMMMMMMMMM0
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Well, safe to say that wasn't what was expected.1
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I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.0
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Oh my word.....0
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We need to add 1%, right.Ave_it said:Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://twitter.com/Survation?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
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Surprising Betfair market hasn't shifted yet.0
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With results like that, the polling industry better hope it's got it right this time.
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
GAME OVER2 -
Oh Betfair has moved now!!!!0
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"Thanks but I'll wait for Surva...
Shit."0 -
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.Byronic said:
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.Theuniondivvie said:
Sacrifice the Union you say?Byronic said:
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u
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0
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Are you telling me I have just spent the last 2hrs coding up live data stuff for no reason.Byronic said:HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
GAME OVER2 -
I predicted this!
A swingback at the end, just like in 2017, but from very different start positions.
Fuck. Boris is gonna get a BIG majority0 -
Sub 1.30 now on Tory Majority.0
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Presume * indicates rounding.
ie Con were 42 in last Survation.
So, eg, gone from 42.3 to 44.7 - ie up 2 rounded.0 -
Gold Standard Survation now forecasting a Tory landslide, a 14% Tory lead would be the biggest since 1983, even bigger than Thatcher's 12% lead in 1987 when she won a majority over 100brokenwheel said:1 -
Actually I am ok with 14%!!!!RobD said:
We need to add 1%, right.Ave_it said:Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://twitter.com/Survation?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
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ELBOW Con lead up to 10.1% (was 9.7% last Sunday)0
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Ye of little faith.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
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Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.0
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Time for the SCon Klaxons to sound? 😂1
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Hmm. No danger of the lower polls seeing the avg. Lead drop then.brokenwheel said:
Tories should be comfortable of a decent majority, or a big one if labour do not outperform the polls a bit.
While I dont believe any party in this country is popular enough to get 45%, the Tories have good reason to think they can match last time, and labour therefore need a bigger polling error than last time.
Good night.0 -
Ah, smug complacency mode!0
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Has ONE poll ever moved Betfair so much - 1.33 to 1.28 in 5 mins!0
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Well it would be helpful if the media were to focus on the Gina Miller poll and not this one for the next 3 days.nunu2 said:
Ye of little faith.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
Quick get a load of Maomentumers on the media ASAP, telling the world its all within MoE...that will get Flat Cap Fred done the polling station.0 -
So. Sunderland.....1
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Revised ELBOW inc. Survation:
Con 43.0% (+0.4)
Lab 32.9% (nc)
LD 12.5% (-0.6)
Brex 3.1% (-0.4)0 -
£50k just went through on betfair....I think we can say the city types have been reassured.0
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Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.1 -
That’s Blair landslide figures is it not?MikeL said:Has ONE poll ever moved Betfair so much - 1.33 to 1.28 in 5 mins!
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5 days before election 2017 GMB Survation had just a 1% Tory lead, 41% to 40% for Labour in its final poll, just 1% off the final result.
Tonight just 3 days before the 2019 general election GMB Survation has a 14% Tory lead, that is landslide territory folks!
https://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Final-GMB-GE2017-V-Tables-020617TOCH-1c1d0h3-microage.pdf0 -
As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.Theuniondivvie said:
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.Byronic said:
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.Theuniondivvie said:
Sacrifice the Union you say?Byronic said:
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u0 -
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
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Sod Sunderland, it's Bootle we're after.Time_to_Leave said:So. Sunderland.....
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It's close enough to 43/33/13 to conform to that general pattern. I shall believe talk of a possible swingback to the Tories only if there's a lot more evidence to corroborate it.brokenwheel said:0 -
So about that Andrew Neil video....what is the view count at now?0
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Let's not get too excited
Still time for the CORBYNISTA swing!0 -
RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
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If 45% of the population do vote Tory, most of the graveyards in the North are going to be spinning so much we could probably attach turbines and power the national grid.3
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Six week campaign and Christmas.houndtang said:I've been out of circulation for a few weeks due to family issues but am I right that this election is proving a real non event? Seems like the lowest key campaign since 2001 at least. Surprising in some ways given how uncertain the result is.
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13.7% undecided...dont know how that compares to other polls0
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ELBOW - magnificent!Sunil_Prasannan said:Revised ELBOW inc. Survation:
Con 43.0% (+0.4)
Lab 32.9% (nc)
LD 12.5% (-0.6)
Brex 3.1% (-0.4)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQl5KYiiFDI0 -
Weird how this poll feels more significant than all others. Why?
Partly: confirmation bias, for sure. All non-racist, non-Jew-haters want to see Labour thoroughly defeated and disgraced. That is the righteous position. We are all in danger of seeing what we want to see.
BUT, also, this feels like it captures a genuine mood shift. BMG also showed a significant slide against Racist Labour. This kinda cements it. Who wants to vote for C*nts? And, not only that, Loser Marxisr C*nts?
Die, Corbyn's Labour, Die.0 -
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0 -
Con+Brexit 49%0
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Well some people aren't happy on twitter....
https://twitter.com/arcpolitics98/status/12038292329394913290 -
"But we aren't voting Tory, dad, grandad - we're voting Boris...."FrancisUrquhart said:If 45% of the population do vote Tory, most of the graveyards in the North are going to be spinning so much we could probably attach turbines and power the national grid.
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Are the Tories are just opening the social media spending taps....0
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Actually the lead is 13.6% rounded up to 14%
Still obviously a great poll for the Tories0 -
The Andrew Neil effect?0
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An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0 -
Baxter - post-Survation
Con ............ 367
Lab ............. 210
LibDems ....... 10 (2 Black Cabs)
SNP ............... 41
Plaid Cymru .... 3
Brexit .............. 0
Greens ............ 1
N.I ................. 18
Total ........... 650
Con Maj. ....... 84
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NOW your interested?bigjohnowls said:
That makes 5 Tory CandidatesBenpointer said:
Plus she's being investigated for anti-semitic comments, just saying.bigjohnowls said:
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.Black_Rook said:(continued from previous)
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con
Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem
Hastings and Rye: Likely Con
Chipping Barnet: Tossup
Norwich North: Likely Con
Hendon: Lean Con
MK South: Likely Con
MK North: Lean Con
Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con
Putney: Lean Con
Harrow East: Likely Con
Watford: Likely Con
Crawley: Likely Con
Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con
Reading West: Likely Con
Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con
Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con
Lewes: Lean Con
Colchester: Safe Con
St Albans: Likely Lib Dem
Wimbledon: Likely Con
Guildford: Lean Con
Winchester: Lean Con
South Cambs: Lean Con
Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.0 -
0
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Barnesian model says......Tory majority of 1....peter_from_putney said:Baxter - post-Survation
Con ............ 367
Lab ............. 210
LibDems ....... 10 (2 Black Cabs)
SNP ............... 41
Plaid Cymru .... 3
Brexit .............. 0
Greens ............ 1
N.I ................. 18
Total ........... 650
Con Maj. ....... 840 -
PB ToriesNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
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Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.Andrew said:RobD said:
Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClOAndrew said:Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.
Sample, 1012.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.0 -
Labour HQ are surely going to now announce some mega bribe and Jezza will massive new document dumps from dodgy Russian accounts on reddit.0
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1935 general election repeat ? If landslide happens and I think the runes are showing its gonna happen, Corbyn finished, Farage seen off,Brexit done, Remain destroyed, saved from Marxism, a proper Tory majority ,what's not to likeMarqueeMark said:
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
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It is a swing of 6% from Labour to Tory which on UNS would see the Tories gain 58 Labour seats taking Labour actually down to just 204 seats and assuming 6 losses to the SNP under 200 to 198.peter_from_putney said:Baxter - post-Survation
Con ............ 367
Lab ............. 210
LibDems ....... 10 (2 Black Cabs)
SNP ............... 41
Plaid Cymru .... 3
Brexit .............. 0
Greens ............ 1
N.I ................. 18
Total ........... 650
Con Maj. ....... 84
That would be the lowest result for Labour in terms of MPs returned since 1935, even lower than Foot's 209 in 1983
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative0 -
The big one now is YouGov MRP. I presume we are going to see something like a 10% lead, but it will be interesting to see the majority. Is it that Labour are piling up votes in safe seats or not.1
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Long way to go y'all0
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Keir Starmer and Tony BlairNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0 -
Any mega bribe and it will scream desperationFrancisUrquhart said:Labour HQ are surely going to now announce some mega bribe and Jezza will massive new document dumps from dodgy Russian accounts on reddit.
And Boris could say...Corbyn would bankrupt Britain and cause economic chaos...and it would resonate0 -
Con <--> LibDem
2017 - gap 35%
2019 - gap 34%
swing 0.5%0 -
The electorate.NorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?1 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Barnesian model says......Tory majority of 1....peter_from_putney said:Baxter - post-Survation
Con ............ 367
Lab ............. 210
LibDems ....... 10 (2 Black Cabs)
SNP ............... 41
Plaid Cymru .... 3
Brexit .............. 0
Greens ............ 1
N.I ................. 18
Total ........... 650
Con Maj. ....... 84
And after Andrew Neil went viral.0 -
True, but it is still richly enjoyable.Ave_it said:Long way to go y'all
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Keir Starmer would very likely become leader, with some support from both Momentum and the centre.HYUFD said:
Keir Starmer and Tony BlairNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0 -
And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.0
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A horror poll for Labour .
And it can’t be put down to unusually low turnout in younger people . 19% of women are still undecided , Labour just edge the Tories in that group .
The Tories have a huge lead in men and Labour are being trounced in the over 55s .
Labours last ditch message in those Midlands and Northern seats really needs to be now would you trust the Tories with a huge majority.
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He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of WatfordWhisperingOracle said:
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.HYUFD said:
Keir Starmer and Tony BlairNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0 -
And I think the Tories will be saying look what happened last time and wave around Gina Miller poll.nico67 said:A horror poll for Labour .
And it can’t be put down to unusually low turnout in younger people . 19% of women are still undecided , Labour just edge the Tories in that group .
The Tories have a huge lead in men and Labour are being trounced in the over 55s .
Labours last ditch message in those Midlands and Northern seats really needs to be now would you trust the Tories with a huge majority.
Also, unlike 2017, the media narrative hasn't been landslide for day after day, it has been much more about how close it is.0 -
That would be a hell of a list achievements for Boris.kjohnw1 said:
1935 general election repeat ? If landslide happens and I think the runes are showing its gonna happen, Corbyn finished, Farage seen off,Brexit done, Remain destroyed, saved from Marxism, a proper Tory majority ,what's not to likeMarqueeMark said:
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
He can retire next Christmas. Job done.0 -
bizarrely betfair still implies the chance of a Lab majority at 2%0
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RobD said:
PB ToriesNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
They will blame the electorate for not understanding the manifesto & Labour candidates for not explaining it properly.2 -
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.HYUFD said:
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of WatfordWhisperingOracle said:
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.HYUFD said:
Keir Starmer and Tony BlairNorthernPowerhouse said:
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?kle4 said:Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?0
