An elderly friend of the family in Lewes. Never voted for the Tories and normally votes Labour or Lib Dem but won’t vote Lib Dem there for fear of Corbyn and will with a very heavy heart vote for Johnson.
At the opposite end of the spectrum friends in Newcastle from an ex mining community hate Corbyn but despise the Tories and will under sufference stick with Labour .
This election really is coming down to the anti vote !
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Thats really nasrty stuff and a travesty of the truth. You ought to be ashamed for posting it.
I thought that - clearly Ms Scarlett is a troll, paid or unpaid. Can she be banned before the day is out ? She is trying her hardest.
I actually think her posts are perfect meme's, snapshots of this election where under normal circumstances this is what the media would be asking in order to force out the real truth's behind certain policies. Instead these posts are viewed as trolling!? Where is the democracy in that? Many are shameless, they intend to back a Bullingdon get rich quick ploy which is so transparent and so clearly designed to screw the average person on behalf on the elite its madness.
Andrew Neil, she ain't.
At least she's got the balls to go under the spotlight!
I will be voting Labour as the best of a dodgy bunch.
I'm intrigued to see stats suggesting that Labour is now the party of the well-educated middle classes whilst the Tories gain more support from the less well-educated members of the public.
I do wonder how Corbyn would have done with the support of the media. It's amazing that he has done so well considering the bile that's been thrown at him.
I think that the Tories will have a majority but I'm unclear as to the size of that lead.
I do feel sorry for all those who think that Boris and Brexit is the answer to all their problems.
I'm not a big fan of either Brexit or Boris, but the main thing is I don't want Corbyn as prime minister. Yvette Cooper or David Miliband would have been fine.
It's ludicrous that Labour have put him forward as a potential PM. He may have all sorts of good qualities, but he is sufficiently compromised that he should never hold high office. McDonnell too.
I have just seen a Johnson interview on BBC London news where he has (again) doubled down on blaming Labour for the London Bridge attack (and been heavily challenged). He is walking a very thin tightrope and seems to not realise that there is no upside for him when grieving parents call him a liar and opportunist.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I think there was some mileage in May's plan, and in particular in taking some value from the main dwelling.
Perhaps look more at average house value as the amount protected, rather than 100k as a cap? That will stop excess incidental gains being windfall profits for the next generation at a cost to society, and if therefore Gran/Grandpa want to downsize earlier to release it then they can.
Just thoughts.
The problem is I would suggest that ‘average hourly prices’ are in themselves something of a silly idea. You and I live in areas where housing is pretty cheap. I remember two years ago a conversation with a Londoner who took a lot of convincing that 3-bed semis north of Birmingham didn’t fetch £450k(!) So setting a cap to the average house price would benefit the likes of us, and at the same time truly clobber people in many parts of the South of England.
But if you start doing the cap by region, it adds seven layers of complexity to the whole thing.
The comment about house prices is fair - a normal 1100 sqft 3 bed 30s semi here is perhaps 30% of the (say) Surbiton equivalent; 150-175k in a middling area. For your 600-700k you get an ambassadorial Edwardian 5 bed backing onto parkland.
However, the gain is an unearned property gain so I do not really see why that should be given to descendants as a windfall, and the community pay the same for necessary care for the owner.
So I would not see that as being essentially fairer as an option than May's fixed max of amount to be spent on care.
I wonder if the Tories would change their tune on this with more Northern MPs? Perhaps I need to sound out Ben Bradley :-) .
On social care, surely Johnson implements something along the lines of Dilnot if he gains a majority ? It's not being brought up in the campaign because it was electoral poison for May.
I implore every PB-er in the world to watch that video of Boris in Jewish North London. If you can still vote for Corbyn after that....
Indeed.
And the despicable Johnson is even worse.
Great, innit?
So vote Lib Dem. Green. SNP. Mebyon Kernow. The Brexit Party. Or abstain.
Just don't vote for Corbyn's Labour. A decent person cannot vote for anti-Semitism.
No decent person could ever vote Brexit Party Ltd. If you vote for Claire Fox and the like, you are an enabler of genocide.
I'll be voting Green. And hoping Berger wins in F&GG.
But nothing will improve in the UK until the electoral system changes. 2011 felt like last-chance saloon for the current social contract.
The Tories have absolutely nothing to offer over the next 10 years. The trouble is they will remain in power, failing to address the slow-burning structural issues. When the breaking point comes, I would really like there to be at least one international liberal alternative to fascism.
I do think you have a point - with such a clear out of the grandees and losing the likes of Rory Stewart, etc where is the next next stage of intellectual development of liberal conservatism coming from?
If the parliamentary party tips more towards the north and the working classes, then the party had better come up with answers to the dispossessed and disenfranchised quickly.
I suspect Dominic Cummings has a few (probably good) suggestions.
I have just seen a Johnson interview on BBC London news where he has (again) doubled down on blaming Labour for the London Bridge attack (and been heavily challenged). He is walking a very thin tightrope and seems to not realise that there is no upside for him when grieving parents call him a liar and opportunist.
Jo Cox husband all but said vote Remain.
It didnt make a blind bit of difference.
I agree on the national scale, but it can make a difference at the fringes of mobile voters in the seats most affected (London and Cambridge). But my point was that I fail to see why he even talks about it when there is no possibility of any upside for him. It is almost as if he cannot help himself.
I have just seen a Johnson interview on BBC London news where he has (again) doubled down on blaming Labour for the London Bridge attack (and been heavily challenged). He is walking a very thin tightrope and seems to not realise that there is no upside for him when grieving parents call him a liar and opportunist.
Jo Cox husband all but said vote Remain.
It didnt make a blind bit of difference.
And why should it - Jo Cox wasn't that important, and being her husband after she's been murdered isn't an obvious source of wisdom.
Not definitely confirmed but they apologized for no poll release yesterday and said it was likely it will be today
Which means a delay to my the official version of my ELBOW
BTW this is the penultimate ELBOW, the final one will be released on Thursday after the final set of polls!
The BMG hasn’t been confirmed yet , the head of research tweeted yesterday about a poll likely to come out today. I really hope it does come out today but don’t bank on it !
I agree on the basis of the polling evidence that Brexit is the main drag on Labour in this election.
But going left on cultural values will risk replicating the Brexit situation, because Brexit is also a cultural issue not just an economic one.
For an extreme example try to think what would Labour's chances with a working class northern man or woman would be if it goes hard in favour of transgender rights?
I don't mean go left on cultural issues. I just mean do not go the other way.
The TG issue I think will settle into a common sense consensus quite soon.
I implore every PB-er in the world to watch that video of Boris in Jewish North London. If you can still vote for Corbyn after that....
Indeed.
And the despicable Johnson is even worse.
Great, innit?
So vote Lib Dem. Green. SNP. Mebyon Kernow. The Brexit Party. Or abstain.
Just don't vote for Corbyn's Labour. A decent person cannot vote for anti-Semitism.
No decent person could ever vote Brexit Party Ltd. If you vote for Claire Fox and the like, you are an enabler of genocide.
I'll be voting Green. And hoping Berger wins in F&GG.
But nothing will improve in the UK until the electoral system changes. 2011 felt like last-chance saloon for the current social contract.
The Tories have absolutely nothing to offer over the next 10 years. The trouble is they will remain in power, failing to address the slow-burning structural issues. When the breaking point comes, I would really like there to be at least one international liberal alternative to fascism.
'an enabler of genocide'? These posts are getting more and more unhinged. We ofteb get a rash of new and angry posters before the election. I am never totwsure whether they are bots or whether this is genuinely the first time these people have ventured out of their own bubbles.
There are precious few votes in telling the truth.
Those in their 70s and 80s today won the demographic lottery. They didn't have to support a large number of oldies when they were of working age. They benefited from enormous capital gains on their houses.
The young of today are going to be supporting a lot of old people. Or they will emigrate, worsening the problem.
That's why populists like Trump and Johnson win - not because they have special political talent or insight but because they say what they think the audience in front of them wants to hear.
There's always someone to "blame" for the constituents not having jobs or enough money or crumbling social infrastructure but it's not Trump or Johnson it's "parliament" or "the elite" or whoever.
The point will inevitable come for both men when no one believes a word they say and the anger their constituency will feel when they realise they have been duped by these charlatans will ensure not only they but the parties foolish enough to empower them will be swept from power for hopefully an extended period.
Not definitely confirmed but they apologized for no poll release yesterday and said it was likely it will be today
The previous BMG on 29th Nov was Con 39%, Lab 33%, LD 13%, Grn 5%, BRX 4%, SNP 4%. That Green figure was one of the highest of the campaign.
Bmg has been a bit all over the place. Even if they show an increased Tory lead (which I much prefer to a smaller one!) I will simply take it as a correction from their last poll.
I do wonder how Corbyn would have done with the support of the media. It's amazing that he has done so well considering the bile that's been thrown at him.
I'm intrigued by what Corbyn, has done that deserves good coverage from the press. Seriously what should have been lauded by the press but wasn't?
Not definitely confirmed but they apologized for no poll release yesterday and said it was likely it will be today
The previous BMG on 29th Nov was Con 39%, Lab 33%, LD 13%, Grn 5%, BRX 4%, SNP 4%. That Green figure was one of the highest of the campaign.
They use a slightly different methodology which adds in demographic changes due to voter registration patterns and that’s why it’s a lot more interesting to see whether it comes out with another different result from the main grouping .
I implore every PB-er in the world to watch that video of Boris in Jewish North London. If you can still vote for Corbyn after that....
Indeed.
And the despicable Johnson is even worse.
Great, innit?
So vote Lib Dem. Green. SNP. Mebyon Kernow. The Brexit Party. Or abstain.
Just don't vote for Corbyn's Labour. A decent person cannot vote for anti-Semitism.
No decent person could ever vote Brexit Party Ltd. If you vote for Claire Fox and the like, you are an enabler of genocide.
I'll be voting Green. And hoping Berger wins in F&GG.
But nothing will improve in the UK until the electoral system changes. 2011 felt like last-chance saloon for the current social contract.
The Tories have absolutely nothing to offer over the next 10 years. The trouble is they will remain in power, failing to address the slow-burning structural issues. When the breaking point comes, I would really like there to be at least one international liberal alternative to fascism.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
If you think the Tories will get a majority on Thursday then the best bet isn't on any political betting market but on the FTSE 250 (or its constituents ) as I read it will be forecast to go up by 5% .It was actually framed as 'only 5%'. Given it may (in the same article) decrease by 10% if the tories lose power I think this is a better bet than the political markets .
250 seems to be better insulated from currency spikes.
Where's the fun in the stock market? You can't invest £5 in a company then wait up until 3.53am that same night to see the CEO ritually defenestrated. Yet you can bet on Esher and Walton, or Ashton under Lyne, or East Renfrewshire.
I suppose the fun (or interest) is more low level and continual . Bets at small stakes do have an entertainment value though and this is forgotten sometimes by people who slate those who play the National Lottery where the odds are bad as a return but for the sake of £2 a week can provide value entertainment.
The best fun bet I have seen suggested was 33/1 Brexit Party in Middleton. Isam I think. There is good reason to think BXP will do well here - the candidate is an ex Labour Mayor.
On much the same subject, I have spent the day travelling around Hemsworth, and its plain to see that BXP are targeting the seat - every lamppost festooned - whilst the tories are ignoring it or at least ignoring the lampposts.
You can get 20s on BXP here. I'm in for a few pounds - I think it will take a minor miracle (though Momentum are coralling West Yorkshire volunteers into this seat at the expense of Dewsbury and Wakefield) but it would be extraordinary to see Tricket go down in this absolute old labour heartland.
For those who think BXP might help the tories, they're in the 7/4 range, which, for anyone who knows the area, in a normal election would seem bonkers.
The real problem is dementia care is not classed the same as cancer care etc and therefore does not come under CHC. My sister was in a nursing home for over 2 years with terminal cervical cancer and Wales NHS paid the £85,000 fees. Had she had dementia she would have to pay the whole sum which would have taken all her capital
This is unjust and dementia care has to come under the NHS and a scheme devised to be fair to everyone
This has to be taken out of politics and Boris and Norman Lamb have said
There's a wider issue about the place of the elderly in society - how they are regarded, how they want to be regarded. An example is the increase in the number of people in their 70s still in work. That will only increase further as people, either from choice or otherwise, opt to continue to be in the workplace.
Fine but there is an anomaly whereby they don't pay NI and that seems unjust.
As for the wider issue of caring for those who progressively cannot care for themselves, that is very difficult. I think Government should do much more for those who voluntarily take on the caring of older relatives (tax breaks, help with pension saving etc) but where that isn't possible.
And yet it isn't just about those caring or their families but the person being cared for. How do we provide the dignity and care at what can be a most undignified time for all?
I suppose the other aspect is the point at which it becomes less about life and more about existing and the options for those who no longer wish to endure existence when it has no meaning.
I'd love to hear Boris debating those points.
I'm currently working on personal health budgets... basically freeing up NHS money to go directly to individuals and families to organise their own care. There are currently around 70,000 in England but this is due to increase to 200,000 over the next parliament as part of the NHS long term plan. Central to this is telling people how much their care costs. That leads itself to a future insurance based scheme and a standardised NHS cost that can be topped up by individuals should they so wish.
I have just seen a Johnson interview on BBC London news where he has (again) doubled down on blaming Labour for the London Bridge attack (and been heavily challenged). He is walking a very thin tightrope and seems to not realise that there is no upside for him when grieving parents call him a liar and opportunist.
Jo Cox husband all but said vote Remain.
It didnt make a blind bit of difference.
And why should it - Jo Cox wasn't that important, and being her husband after she's been murdered isn't an obvious source of wisdom.
Exactly right. The public (especially the leave north) agree with Boris on this.
I agree on the basis of the polling evidence that Brexit is the main drag on Labour in this election.
But going left on cultural values will risk replicating the Brexit situation, because Brexit is also a cultural issue not just an economic one.
For an extreme example try to think what would Labour's chances with a working class northern man or woman would be if it goes hard in favour of transgender rights?
I don't mean go left on cultural issues. I just mean do not go the other way.
The TG issue I think will settle into a common sense consensus quite soon.
There are precious few votes in telling the truth.
Those in their 70s and 80s today won the demographic lottery. They didn't have to support a large number of oldies when they were of working age. They benefited from enormous capital gains on their houses.
The young of today are going to be supporting a lot of old people. Or they will emigrate, worsening the problem.
That's why populists like Trump and Johnson win - not because they have special political talent or insight but because they say what they think the audience in front of them wants to hear.
Apologies if this post seems naive but I don't spend all my life on this board. I notice while there has been a lot of discussion about whether polling trends in this election match the last, there doesn't seem to be much discussion about swingback - the idea that undecideds stick with the status quo at the last minute so the final polls are good for the governing party. I seem to remember in the days of Rod Crosby (can I mention his name?) a lot of discussion about this. Has the swingback theory been thrown out after the last election? I'd be interested to know.
I do wonder how Corbyn would have done with the support of the media. It's amazing that he has done so well considering the bile that's been thrown at him.
I'm intrigued by what Corbyn, has done that deserves good coverage from the press. Seriously what should have been lauded by the press but wasn't?
You think the press coverage isnt about their Billionaire tax avoiding owners self interest.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
As an Ex-LD that voted Con for the first time this year I'd agree.
I implore every PB-er in the world to watch that video of Boris in Jewish North London. If you can still vote for Corbyn after that....
Indeed.
And the despicable Johnson is even worse.
Great, innit?
So vote Lib Dem. Green. SNP. Mebyon Kernow. The Brexit Party. Or abstain.
Just don't vote for Corbyn's Labour. A decent person cannot vote for anti-Semitism.
No decent person could ever vote Brexit Party Ltd. If you vote for Claire Fox and the like, you are an enabler of genocide.
I'll be voting Green. And hoping Berger wins in F&GG.
But nothing will improve in the UK until the electoral system changes. 2011 felt like last-chance saloon for the current social contract.
The Tories have absolutely nothing to offer over the next 10 years. The trouble is they will remain in power, failing to address the slow-burning structural issues. When the breaking point comes, I would really like there to be at least one international liberal alternative to fascism.
I do think you have a point - with such a clear out of the grandees and losing the likes of Rory Stewart, etc where is the next next stage of intellectual development of liberal conservatism coming from?
If the parliamentary party tips more towards the north and the working classes, then the party had better come up with answers to the dispossessed and disenfranchised quickly.
I suspect Dominic Cummings has a few (probably good) suggestions.
Housing minister to be in the cabinet & then an Ernest Marples mark 2 minister to implement a massive build of social & private housing would be a good start.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
If you think the Tories will get a majority on Thursday then the best bet isn't on any political betting market but on the FTSE 250 (or its constituents ) as I read it will be forecast to go up by 5% .It was actually framed as 'only 5%'. Given it may (in the same article) decrease by 10% if the tories lose power I think this is a better bet than the political markets .
250 seems to be better insulated from currency spikes.
Where's the fun in the stock market? You can't invest £5 in a company then wait up until 3.53am that same night to see the CEO ritually defenestrated. Yet you can bet on Esher and Walton, or Ashton under Lyne, or East Renfrewshire.
I suppose the fun (or interest) is more low level and continual . Bets at small stakes do have an entertainment value though and this is forgotten sometimes by people who slate those who play the National Lottery where the odds are bad as a return but for the sake of £2 a week can provide value entertainment.
The best fun bet I have seen suggested was 33/1 Brexit Party in Middleton. Isam I think. There is good reason to think BXP will do well here - the candidate is an ex Labour Mayor.
On much the same subject, I have spent the day travelling around Hemsworth, and its plain to see that BXP are targeting the seat - every lamppost festooned - whilst the tories are ignoring it or at least ignoring the lampposts.
You can get 20s on BXP here. I'm in for a few pounds - I think it will take a minor miracle (though Momentum are coralling West Yorkshire volunteers into this seat at the expense of Dewsbury and Wakefield) but it would be extraordinary to see Tricket go down in this absolute old labour heartland.
For those who think BXP might help the tories, they're in the 7/4 range, which, for anyone who knows the area, in a normal election would seem bonkers.
I've had a couple of smallish bets on Tories in seats where a strong BXP showing might let them through the middle. Hartlepool is one and Middleton is the other.
There are precious few votes in telling the truth.
Those in their 70s and 80s today won the demographic lottery. They didn't have to support a large number of oldies when they were of working age. They benefited from enormous capital gains on their houses.
The young of today are going to be supporting a lot of old people. Or they will emigrate, worsening the problem.
That's why populists like Trump and Johnson win - not because they have special political talent or insight but because they say what they think the audience in front of them wants to hear.
And Corbyn & Swinson don't!
Populist = Politicians & policies I don't like.
There are plenty of policies I don’t like which aren’t popular. I think you need to add that to make it populist.
I have listed below my nine late-pick constituency bets, all of which involve would-be Tory gains from Labour, showing the best odds I was able to obtain today. There were a further handful of seats I was confident the Tories will win, but excluded these having set a minimum odds threshold in each case of 1.50 decimal or 1/2 in old money:
Constituency ................. Decimal Odds Ashfield ................................1.80 Don Valley ........................... 1.85 Blackpool South .................. 1.50 Stoke-on-Trent North .........1.53 Peterborough ......................1.65 West Bromwich West ...........1.73 Bury South ........................ 1.61 Darlington .........................1.75 Dagenham& Rainham ........1.83
My average odds on the above bets is approximately 1.70, so I will be in profit if six or more of my nine bets prove successful. Good luck should yo follow me in on any of these, but please be sure to DYOR before proceeding.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
I think there will be more relief (especially after 2017) than gloating at that outcome.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
More to the point, start discussing who is best placed to take over from whichever party leaders are standing down.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
TSE. OGH had enough of his claims that he'd actually eat a pineapple pizza. Preposterous!
If you think the Tories will get a majority on Thursday then the best bet isn't on any political betting market but on the FTSE 250 (or its constituents ) as I read it will be forecast to go up by 5% .It was actually framed as 'only 5%'. Given it may (in the same article) decrease by 10% if the tories lose power I think this is a better bet than the political markets .
250 seems to be better insulated from currency spikes.
Where's the fun in the stock market? You can't invest £5 in a company then wait up until 3.53am that same night to see the CEO ritually defenestrated. Yet you can bet on Esher and Walton, or Ashton under Lyne, or East Renfrewshire.
I suppose the fun (or interest) is more low level and continual . Bets at small stakes do have an entertainment value though and this is forgotten sometimes by people who slate those who play the National Lottery where the odds are bad as a return but for the sake of £2 a week can provide value entertainment.
The best fun bet I have seen suggested was 33/1 Brexit Party in Middleton. Isam I think. There is good reason to think BXP will do well here - the candidate is an ex Labour Mayor.
On much the same subject, I have spent the day travelling around Hemsworth, and its plain to see that BXP are targeting the seat - every lamppost festooned - whilst the tories are ignoring it or at least ignoring the lampposts.
You can get 20s on BXP here. I'm in for a few pounds - I think it will take a minor miracle (though Momentum are coralling West Yorkshire volunteers into this seat at the expense of Dewsbury and Wakefield) but it would be extraordinary to see Tricket go down in this absolute old labour heartland.
For those who think BXP might help the tories, they're in the 7/4 range, which, for anyone who knows the area, in a normal election would seem bonkers.
I've had a couple of smallish bets on Tories in seats where a strong BXP showing might let them through the middle. Hartlepool is one and Middleton is the other.
Seems appropriate for the tories to come through the middle in Middleton.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
A shouty Corbynite arrived, called everyone Tories, then departed.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
I think there will be more relief (especially after 2017) than gloating at that outcome.
A lot of us who are voting for Johnson are doing so with some element of regret. As I said yesterday, Brexit and Corbyn are the two reasons for voting Conservative. One positive and the other negative but both overwhelmingly important. If Johnson wins there will, as you say, be a lot of relief, but tinged with some apprehension about him as PM.
I have listed below my nine late-pick constituency bets, all of which involve would-be Tory gains from Labour, showing the best odds I was able to obtain today. There were a further handful of seats I was confident the Tories will win, but excluded these having set a minimum odds threshold in each case of 1.50 decimal or 1/2 in old money:
Constituency Decimal Odds Ashfield 1.80 Don Valley 1.85 Blackpool South 1.50 Stoke-on-Trent North 1.53 Peterborough 1.65 West Bromwich West 1.73 Bury South 1.61 Darlington 1.75 Dagenham& Rainham 1.83
My average odds on the above bets is approximately 1.70, so I will be in profit if six or more of my nine bets prove successful. Good luck should yo follow me in on any of these, but please be sure to DYOR before proceeding.
I think the first two are shaky (hence the larger odds I suppose!) -Ashfield has a well known local indie who my brother in law (tory in 2017) said he is voting for. Caroline Flint i imagine has something of a working man/woman personal vote that may save her
Apologies if this post seems naive but I don't spend all my life on this board. I notice while there has been a lot of discussion about whether polling trends in this election match the last, there doesn't seem to be much discussion about swingback - the idea that undecideds stick with the status quo at the last minute so the final polls are good for the governing party. I seem to remember in the days of Rod Crosby (can I mention his name?) a lot of discussion about this. Has the swingback theory been thrown out after the last election? I'd be interested to know.
I think part of Boris' 'appeal' is that he is claiming not to be the status quo; a 'new' Government and all that. I think swingback doesn't work for that reason at this election.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
A shouty Corbynite arrived, called everyone Tories, then departed.
On social care, surely Johnson implements something along the lines of Dilnot if he gains a majority ? It's not being brought up in the campaign because it was electoral poison for May.
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
More to the point, start discussing who is best placed to take over from whichever party leaders are standing down.
If Corbyn resigns, I take it the NEC appoints the acting leader? Which may of course be Corbyn himself, or failing that presumably really would be McDonnell.
If Swinson goes, presumably Davey steps up, if he holds his seat.
If Sturgeon goes (yes, yes, but let’s speculate) then it’s Keith Brown.
The interesting one therefore is if Johnson loses his seat. Dominic Raab is the official deputy PM - presumably he would take over pro tem?
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
A shouty Corbynite arrived, called everyone Tories, then departed.
That sounds like me.
Apart from the departed bit!!
We don’t want you departing yet awhile BJO. Hang in there!
In England only and the big cost is nursing home care that labour are silent on
Boris has said nobody will have to sell their home and the manifesto states he will seek cross party support to resolve the issue. If he gets a majority I expect he will appoint a select committee to recommend a scheme by summer 2020 and will implement the recommendations in a new act
Nursing home fees in London come in at about £1000 pw. Who pays for that to be blunt? If it's not to be the individual or their family, then it will either have to be the local authority which can't afford it or central Government.
In crude terms and I speak from recent experience, are we saying that if I put my father into a care home, I don't have to worry about paying for it and I'll get a huge inheritance when I do sell the property asset as IHT will doubtless rise?
As that, with respect, fair set against someone who looks after an elderly relative at home?
The Conservatives have wasted the last decade not trying to find a solution to the problem. Instead, local authorities have carried the burden of assessment (and that's another part of the problem) and provision at a time when other budgets have been cut. More people will need care in the 2030s and beyond and the current system is not fit for purpose.
I'm disappointed but not surprised Boris has hidden behind a vague commitment to a select committee when he apparently had "a plan" ready (or should that be oven ready?) to unveil.
There are precious few votes in telling the truth.
Those in their 70s and 80s today won the demographic lottery. They didn't have to support a large number of oldies when they were of working age. They benefited from enormous capital gains on their houses.
The young of today are going to be supporting a lot of old people. Or they will emigrate, worsening the problem.
Well it's lucky you made it more difficult for ordinary working people to emigrate then, isn't it?
Just think; we can spend the rest of our lives working to pay the pensions and medical fees of a gerontocracy and multicountry professionals who break occasionally from their decadent lifestyles to lecture us on patriotism whilst relaying the delights of visits to other countries and the people they meet there. Such a joyous future, who would fail to embrace it?...
One possible idea for social care is to get the minority of people who use motorways to pay to drive on them and use the money saved for social care for the elderly.
The real problem is dementia care is not classed the same as cancer care etc and therefore does not come under CHC. My sister was in a nursing home for over 2 years with terminal cervical cancer and Wales NHS paid the £85,000 fees. Had she had dementia she would have to pay the whole sum which would have taken all her capital
This is unjust and dementia care has to come under the NHS and a scheme devised to be fair to everyone
This has to be taken out of politics and Boris and Norman Lamb have said
There's a wider issue about the place of the elderly in society - how they are regarded, how they want to be regarded. An example is the increase in the number of people in their 70s still in work. That will only increase further as people, either from choice or otherwise, opt to continue to be in the workplace.
Fine but there is an anomaly whereby they don't pay NI and that seems unjust.
As for the wider issue of caring for those who progressively cannot care for themselves, that is very difficult. I think Government should do much more for those who voluntarily take on the caring of older relatives (tax breaks, help with pension saving etc) but where that isn't possible.
And yet it isn't just about those caring or their families but the person being cared for. How do we provide the dignity and care at what can be a most undignified time for all?
I suppose the other aspect is the point at which it becomes less about life and more about existing and the options for those who no longer wish to endure existence when it has no meaning.
I'd love to hear Boris debating those points.
I'm currently working on personal health budgets... basically freeing up NHS money to go directly to individuals and families to organise their own care. There are currently around 70,000 in England but this is due to increase to 200,000 over the next parliament as part of the NHS long term plan. Central to this is telling people how much their care costs. That leads itself to a future insurance based scheme and a standardised NHS cost that can be topped up by individuals should they so wish.
One note. I have just been put through the mill by a Hospital refusing to disclose what help an elderly family member was entitled to before discharge.
To the extent of a point-blank refusal to provide a copy of the discharge policy except via an FOI which takes 14-28 days ... by which time the info would have been useless. Refused by the Patient Liaison team, would you believe, and the Ward Leader.
That comes under abuse, and is an attempt at cost control by forcing costs onto families, charities, LA etc.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
I haven’t a Cluedo...
Clever. Saw what you did there. You can hang your coat up again
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
I haven’t a Cluedo...
Clever. Saw what you did there. You can hang your coat up again
It was a good joke. It certainly cut the col mustard.
On topic, I don't think the analogies with Wilson or Major quite hold. Wilson and Major were clever pragmatists who equivocated because they led divided parties. Corbyn is a mediocre dogmatist who equivocates because he has a party united against his views on the EU.
I can't think of a precedent for a party leader so utterly out of sympathy with his party on the dominant issue of the day. Maybe Gladstone on Irish Home Rule? But the rump Liberals came around to his point of view.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
Generally, no, there is no correlation. Tories, in particular, tend not to display posters because they are (mostly) conservative and don't like to show their preferences. I used to live in the Stroud constituency and I'd say if the polls are anywhere near correct then it ought to go Tory this time. The Greens have always done well there too.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
I haven’t a Cluedo...
Clever. Saw what you did there. You can hang your coat up again
It was a good joke. It certainly cut the col mustard.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
A shouty Corbynite arrived, called everyone Tories, then departed.
That sounds like me.
Apart from the departed bit!!
We don’t want you departing yet awhile BJO. Hang in there!
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
A shouty Corbynite arrived, called everyone Tories, then departed.
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
Sounds a reasonable bet - make election night more interesting anyway with a bet!
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
Since about 1997 most Conservative supporters have given up on displaying posters because they attracted vandalism. You usually only seem them in fields now. There might be a correlation between the number of posters and turnout. Stroud usually has a high turnout.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
More to the point, start discussing who is best placed to take over from whichever party leaders are standing down.
If Corbyn resigns, I take it the NEC appoints the acting leader? Which may of course be Corbyn himself, or failing that presumably really would be McDonnell.
If Swinson goes, presumably Davey steps up, if he holds his seat.
If Sturgeon goes (yes, yes, but let’s speculate) then it’s Keith Brown.
The interesting one therefore is if Johnson loses his seat. Dominic Raab is the official deputy PM - presumably he would take over pro tem?
If Boris goes then Raab will almost certainly be gone too. I imagine we'll have PM Gove then!!
One possible idea for social care is to get the minority of people who use motorways to pay to drive on them and use the money saved for social care for the elderly.
This seems a little random as ideas go Mr JS.
One day we'll have to face up to the fact the state-funded social care for the elderly doesn't work. We'll have to face up to the fact that state-funded health-care doesn't work too.
(it can of course - in that if it can be done privately then it can be done - however a huge breaking and reforming of the system is unlikely)
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Apologies if this post seems naive but I don't spend all my life on this board. I notice while there has been a lot of discussion about whether polling trends in this election match the last, there doesn't seem to be much discussion about swingback - the idea that undecideds stick with the status quo at the last minute so the final polls are good for the governing party. I seem to remember in the days of Rod Crosby (can I mention his name?) a lot of discussion about this. Has the swingback theory been thrown out after the last election? I'd be interested to know.
I think part of Boris' 'appeal' is that he is claiming not to be the status quo; a 'new' Government and all that. I think swingback doesn't work for that reason at this election.
Thanks for answering my question. On HIGNIFY on Friday Brian Cox (the actor, not the scientist) groaned at a picture of Boris and said "to think that he (Boris) might become Prime Minister". The others pointed out that he already was Prime Minister. So your point seems valid.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
More to the point, start discussing who is best placed to take over from whichever party leaders are standing down.
If Corbyn resigns, I take it the NEC appoints the acting leader? Which may of course be Corbyn himself, or failing that presumably really would be McDonnell.
If Swinson goes, presumably Davey steps up, if he holds his seat.
If Sturgeon goes (yes, yes, but let’s speculate) then it’s Keith Brown.
The interesting one therefore is if Johnson loses his seat. Dominic Raab is the official deputy PM - presumably he would take over pro tem?
Isn’t Raab more likely to lose his seat than Johnson?
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
I haven’t a Cluedo...
Was it Colonel Smithson with the lead piping?
With the misleading letter.
Misleading letters are lethal weapons. FACT
Wasn't a Jonathan Creek episode all about somebody being murdered because of an incorrect placed/read comma?
Just switched on the Radio 4 news to hear Jeremy Corbyn talking about the "150 billionaires in Britain". Does anyone else find that sort of talk a bit sinister?
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
I have family living in that area. If Dursley is representative, which it may not be, Drew has blown this. He had a very large personal vote which got him back in in 2017 because his replacement Neil Carmichael was utterly hopeless. But since then he’s been a shouty Corbynista tending to prize London ideas over Stroud’s needs, and this hasn’t gone down too well.
He’s also getting on a bit.
The Greens in Stroud may rally behind him but the general feeling is he’s in trouble.
Just switched on the Radio 4 news to hear Jeremy Corbyn talking about the "150 billionaires in Britain". Does anyone else find that sort of talk a bit sinister?
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
I have family living in that area. If Dursley is representative, which it may not be, Drew has blown this. He had a very large personal vote which got him back in in 2017 because his replacement Neil Carmichael was utterly hopeless. But since then he’s been a shouty Corbynista tending to prize London ideas over Stroud’s needs, and this hasn’t gone down too well.
He’s also getting on a bit.
The Greens in Stroud may rally behind him but the general feeling is he’s in trouble.
Surely Stroud is the least labourish labour held constituency in the country?
Right I think Thursday is going to be an absolute blood bath for Labour and well deserved too , with any luck the a Labour Party will purge itself of the extreme left but I don’t hold out much hope . If they perish they perish . We do need an effective opposition in a parliamentary democracy and I say that as a staunch Tory supporter . But what we have with Corbyn is a dangerous , national security risk , we cannot afford for him to remain leader or any of his acolytes . The country deserves better . I hope they are absolutely trounced so they can rebuild a credible party . But if not then someone else will fill the vacuum ( but not Jo Swinson )
I'm no Conservative and part of me hopes you are right but I'm more concerned at what an unchallenged Johnson Government will be able to do and the damage they will be allowed to perpetrate before the credible alternative emerges.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
I'm hoping there won't be gloating on this site, and instead we can engage in an intelligent analysis of the results.
More to the point, start discussing who is best placed to take over from whichever party leaders are standing down.
If Corbyn resigns, I take it the NEC appoints the acting leader? Which may of course be Corbyn himself, or failing that presumably really would be McDonnell.
If Swinson goes, presumably Davey steps up, if he holds his seat.
If Sturgeon goes (yes, yes, but let’s speculate) then it’s Keith Brown.
The interesting one therefore is if Johnson loses his seat. Dominic Raab is the official deputy PM - presumably he would take over pro tem?
If Boris goes then Raab will almost certainly be gone too. I imagine we'll have PM Gove then!!
Bloody hell. Can you put trigger warnings on posts like that? It’s too early in the evening for horrible images like that.
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
I have family living in that area. If Dursley is representative, which it may not be, Drew has blown this. He had a very large personal vote which got him back in in 2017 because his replacement Neil Carmichael was utterly hopeless. But since then he’s been a shouty Corbynista tending to prize London ideas over Stroud’s needs, and this hasn’t gone down too well.
He’s also getting on a bit.
The Greens in Stroud may rally behind him but the general feeling is he’s in trouble.
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
I haven’t a Cluedo...
Was it Colonel Smithson with the lead piping?
With the misleading letter.
Misleading letters are lethal weapons. FACT
I rather like 'Colonel Smithson with the lead piping' - not as a suspicion, but more as a PB Xmas card theme. Are there PB xmas cards? They'd be great!
Just switched on the Radio 4 news to hear Jeremy Corbyn talking about the "150 billionaires in Britain". Does anyone else find that sort of talk a bit sinister?
Its certainly negative and outside of political activist land nobody envies billionaires to the extent it sways votes talking about them imo. Blair Labour got in because they concentrated on matters relevant to voters not student politics
Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
I have family living in that area. If Dursley is representative, which it may not be, Drew has blown this. He had a very large personal vote which got him back in in 2017 because his replacement Neil Carmichael was utterly hopeless. But since then he’s been a shouty Corbynista tending to prize London ideas over Stroud’s needs, and this hasn’t gone down too well.
He’s also getting on a bit.
The Greens in Stroud may rally behind him but the general feeling is he’s in trouble.
Surely Stroud is the least labourish labour held constituency in the country?
Stroud has some very deprived ex-industrial areas in it, both in Stroud itself and in Dursley. It’s also got a very active ecological movement. So actually, I wouldn’t say it’s ‘unlabourish.’
The one that just got banned was clearly a firm believer in the cause, and presumably had links to the party as an activist as she posted knowledge of canvassing activity... so what did she hope to gain spending her time riling up regulars on PBc instead of knocking doors or delivering a few leaflets or manning the phone bank?
It just seems so unfocused a use of her time.
It seems unlikely that her claims were accurate. Indeed, they were in some cases less plausible than Tory Gain Ashton.
So I think it was probably misinformation. Possibly they were over-rating PB’s influence on Tory strategy.
Who got banned?
I haven’t a Cluedo...
Was it Colonel Smithson with the lead piping?
Colonel Smithson in the wrong Constituency with the wrong weapon.
Aren't we playing Monopoly for the next 5 years where the 1% have already got all the houses and hotels.
The bank error is only in your favour if you are a billionaire
Priti has removed the get out of jail cards and inked over just visiting with just visiting for 50 years.
And the rest of us are left with trying to win a beauty competition or a crossword competition to make ends meet.
Just switched on the Radio 4 news to hear Jeremy Corbyn talking about the "150 billionaires in Britain". Does anyone else find that sort of talk a bit sinister?
That's a good thing right, 150 of them is a lot of money pumped into the UK economy...I have a funny feeling that isn't weirdo Jezza's outlook. A man who won't go down a street because it is too capitalist.
I'm currently working on personal health budgets... basically freeing up NHS money to go directly to individuals and families to organise their own care. There are currently around 70,000 in England but this is due to increase to 200,000 over the next parliament as part of the NHS long term plan. Central to this is telling people how much their care costs. That leads itself to a future insurance based scheme and a standardised NHS cost that can be topped up by individuals should they so wish.
One note. I have just been put through the mill by a Hospital refusing to disclose what help an elderly family member was entitled to before discharge.
To the extent of a point-blank refusal to provide a copy of the discharge policy except via an FOI which takes 14-28 days ... by which time the info would have been useless. Refused by the Patient Liaison team, would you believe, and the Ward Leader.
That comes under abuse, and is an attempt at cost control by forcing costs onto families, charities, LA etc.
Sadly you won't be the only one. Hospitals pressure everybody on discharge including local authorities and CHC nurse because of the bed blocking targets. A result is often inappropriate and potentially unsafe discharges that often don;t meet the real needs of the individuals or families.
Just to balance it one of my proudest moments was having a car crash survivor in London but family in the Highlands. I not only found a specialist nursing facility for the person but also chartered a helicopter to get them there because ambulance transfer was not realistic.
Comments
It was the same in 2017.
BTW this is the penultimate ELBOW, the final one will be released on Thursday after the final set of polls!
*THAT DOES NOT COMPUTE*
It didnt make a blind bit of difference.
However, the gain is an unearned property gain so I do not really see why that should be given to descendants as a windfall, and the community pay the same for necessary care for the owner.
So I would not see that as being essentially fairer as an option than May's fixed max of amount to be spent on care.
I wonder if the Tories would change their tune on this with more Northern MPs? Perhaps I need to sound out Ben Bradley :-) .
It's not being brought up in the campaign because it was electoral poison for May.
If the parliamentary party tips more towards the north and the working classes, then the party had better come up with answers to the dispossessed and disenfranchised quickly.
I suspect Dominic Cummings has a few (probably good) suggestions.
The TG issue I think will settle into a common sense consensus quite soon.
On which topic, I've always loved this -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piFQ4AZHosI
We ofteb get a rash of new and angry posters before the election. I am never totwsure whether they are bots or whether this is genuinely the first time these people have ventured out of their own bubbles.
There's always someone to "blame" for the constituents not having jobs or enough money or crumbling social infrastructure but it's not Trump or Johnson it's "parliament" or "the elite" or whoever.
The point will inevitable come for both men when no one believes a word they say and the anger their constituency will feel when they realise they have been duped by these charlatans will ensure not only they but the parties foolish enough to empower them will be swept from power for hopefully an extended period.
This site will be unbearable for all the Conservatives gloating on here at their success and the failure of the other parties but the fact remains this country is in need of good governance and there are huge problems which have been set aside by Brexit.
Johnson may claim he has the answers and the blueprint for a successful post-EU Britain - I'm simply not convinced and I don't believe him and I will hold him and his Government to account as it is my right so to do.
On much the same subject, I have spent the day travelling around Hemsworth, and its plain to see that BXP are targeting the seat - every lamppost festooned - whilst the tories are ignoring it or at least ignoring the lampposts.
You can get 20s on BXP here. I'm in for a few pounds - I think it will take a minor miracle (though Momentum are coralling West Yorkshire volunteers into this seat at the expense of Dewsbury and Wakefield) but it would be extraordinary to see Tricket go down in this absolute old labour heartland.
For those who think BXP might help the tories, they're in the 7/4 range, which, for anyone who knows the area, in a normal election would seem bonkers.
Hear me now, quote me later
At least we don't have the American two year horrors though - their Presidential elections seem to get going about two days after their midterms.
Satire is an indication of how it can go wrong for political parties if they are not carefull and lurch into stereotypes.
Bless
Housing minister to be in the cabinet & then an Ernest Marples mark 2 minister to implement a massive build of social & private housing would be a good start.
Constituency ................. Decimal Odds
Ashfield ................................1.80
Don Valley ........................... 1.85
Blackpool South .................. 1.50
Stoke-on-Trent North .........1.53
Peterborough ......................1.65
West Bromwich West ...........1.73
Bury South ........................ 1.61
Darlington .........................1.75
Dagenham& Rainham ........1.83
My average odds on the above bets is approximately 1.70, so I will be in profit if six or more of my nine bets prove successful. Good luck should yo follow me in on any of these, but please be sure to DYOR before proceeding.
For them to be any good would be a somewhat dramatic break with tradition.
Apart from the departed bit!!
They're a bit upset that shouting at everyone to f*ck off and join the Tories appears to have led to..., well you can guess the rest.
Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?
In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.
Thoughts appreciated..
If Swinson goes, presumably Davey steps up, if he holds his seat.
If Sturgeon goes (yes, yes, but let’s speculate) then it’s Keith Brown.
The interesting one therefore is if Johnson loses his seat. Dominic Raab is the official deputy PM - presumably he would take over pro tem?
Just think; we can spend the rest of our lives working to pay the pensions and medical fees of a gerontocracy and multicountry professionals who break occasionally from their decadent lifestyles to lecture us on patriotism whilst relaying the delights of visits to other countries and the people they meet there. Such a joyous future, who would fail to embrace it?...
To the extent of a point-blank refusal to provide a copy of the discharge policy except via an FOI which takes 14-28 days ... by which time the info would have been useless. Refused by the Patient Liaison team, would you believe, and the Ward Leader.
That comes under abuse, and is an attempt at cost control by forcing costs onto families, charities, LA etc.
Every day for the next 5 years.
DBMIVL I even have a badge from 1980 with it on. (Don't Blame Me I Voted Labour)
It worked really well in the 80s only took 17 years to elect a Lab. Govt.
Sadly I do not have 17 years left methinks.
I can't think of a precedent for a party leader so utterly out of sympathy with his party on the dominant issue of the day. Maybe Gladstone on Irish Home Rule? But the rump Liberals came around to his point of view.
The original was, ‘Don’t blame me, I’m from Massachusetts.’
That worked within three years.
One day we'll have to face up to the fact the state-funded social care for the elderly doesn't work. We'll have to face up to the fact that state-funded health-care doesn't work too.
(it can of course - in that if it can be done privately then it can be done - however a huge breaking and reforming of the system is unlikely)
So your point seems valid.
Misleading letters are lethal weapons. FACT
He’s also getting on a bit.
The Greens in Stroud may rally behind him but the general feeling is he’s in trouble.
Aren't we playing Monopoly for the next 5 years where the 1% have already got all the houses and hotels.
The bank error is only in your favour if you are a billionaire
Priti has removed the get out of jail cards and inked over just visiting with just visiting for 50 years.
And the rest of us are left with trying to win a beauty competition or a crossword competition to make ends meet.
I agree- the aftermath of Brexit, Johnson and Corbyn is going to be something deeply unpleasant and unpredictable
I'm currently working on personal health budgets... basically freeing up NHS money to go directly to individuals and families to organise their own care. There are currently around 70,000 in England but this is due to increase to 200,000 over the next parliament as part of the NHS long term plan. Central to this is telling people how much their care costs. That leads itself to a future insurance based scheme and a standardised NHS cost that can be topped up by individuals should they so wish.
One note. I have just been put through the mill by a Hospital refusing to disclose what help an elderly family member was entitled to before discharge.
To the extent of a point-blank refusal to provide a copy of the discharge policy except via an FOI which takes 14-28 days ... by which time the info would have been useless. Refused by the Patient Liaison team, would you believe, and the Ward Leader.
That comes under abuse, and is an attempt at cost control by forcing costs onto families, charities, LA etc.
Sadly you won't be the only one. Hospitals pressure everybody on discharge including local authorities and CHC nurse because of the bed blocking targets. A result is often inappropriate and potentially unsafe discharges that often don;t meet the real needs of the individuals or families.
Just to balance it one of my proudest moments was having a car crash survivor in London but family in the Highlands. I not only found a specialist nursing facility for the person but also chartered a helicopter to get them there because ambulance transfer was not realistic.