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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?
Jeremy Corbyn came to the Labour leadership contest as an outsider and was elected as a revolution, a rejection of Blairite centrism and a return to socialism. It was a choice to try to find and rally latent support on the left as a path to victory rather than trying to occupy the centre-ground and the tactics of triangulation. It’s a decision that the Democratic party is wrestling with in their search for a nominee in an election that feels both a great opportunity and a huge risk.
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Challenge
- Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox.
- Call your single mother colleague feckless.
- Call any colleagues raised by single mothers illegitimate
- Call your gay colleague a bumboy.
Don't be afraid of Human Resources asking for a chat. Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. If he can say it why can't you..and don't worry the BBC, itv, sky, LBC and the billionaire press corporation will defend your right to say these things and make you a man of the people.
No more need to hide behind a keyboard..express your real values and !ets make the British workplace tune Boris Johnson workplace!
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20
We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709
Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, but there must be some Labour supporters who don't want to go through this again in 5 years' time, and will quietly abstain to make sure there's a change at the top.
On the point, he has followed the party rather than led it on this and a number of points - in his years as LOTO he has actually become more pragmatic, and cynical, that his worshippers or his opponents might believe.
But he has largely been forgotten by the Labour Party, not something which will happen to Corbyn. Either he will be successful in turning Labour into something more akin to a mixture of Respect and the SWP and may also win power or he will be remembered as the leader who nearly destroyed his party.
Not long to find out!
Thanks for the header.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGIBJDJg-_Y
All that kind of talk is designed to do is make the person saying it feel better about themselves.
The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:
More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019
Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019
https://twitter.com/jonlansman/status/752078612766027777
Are Momentum playing the really long game of waiting for Godot.
Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better)
I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio)
I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders
I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so)
I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Talking of which, I see Labour have a video of Ben Elton endorsing them. I don't mean to be funny, but I thought he lived in Australia these days?
I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
Catching up on this thread, not sure which is the more unreal, MalcolmG's continued bile and invective directed at any non-SNP fanatics which he thinks is "banter" or the parallel universe some of our ultra-left wing PBers seem to be occupying. Tories comfortably ahead in the polls, Twitter awash with Labour canvassers predicting utter doom and gloom and the PB lefties are talking as if Corbyn is walking into Downing Street on Friday. Next we will be getting new letters from a certain gentleman explaining how Jo becomes PM on Friday!
I hav eto respond to this, coming from a blinkered Tory who is bitter and twisted and comes across as sadder than Eyore , I say again get a life, me need fewer curmudgeons here, brighten your life up with some banter.
In 2017 I helped the Tories on election day in a marginal Labour constituency. By 6pm the campaign co-ordinator where I was said that they were sure we'd won the seat based on the canvass returns. Labour actually won it with a majority increased by 6000 votes. To be fair had the Tories got the vote in 2015 that they got in 2017 they would have won by a couple of thousand but they had no idea of how effective the Momentum GOTV engine was.
*runs away*
Ah, my sable hat. Spasibo. Vy ochen' polezny
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
Only 10% gap predicted on last MRP though, and these being postals could perhaps make it seem like a close fight.
169 or less: 16.5 / 17.5
170-179: 23 / 30
180-189: 20 / 27
190-199: 11.5 / 13.5
200-209: 8.8 / 9.6
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159424916
https://thetab.com/uk/sheffield/2019/11/22/breaking-jeremy-corbyn-just-appeared-on-sheffield-uni-concourse-to-greet-huge-crowds-41146
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1203691156082696192
That tweet was talking about postal vote returns if you click into their tweet history, it's not massively surprising that Labour may be doing quite badly on postals.
I've got a pet theory that the Con vote is going to be hyper efficient this time round, the Tories are losing a lot of support in true blue seats in the south, while gaining in Lab held northern seats. What this likely means is that big majority seats like NE Hants, Maidenhead, Henley, E Hants, Cotswolds, Windsor, Surrey Heath etc will see their 22,000+ majorities reduced to half (or less) of that, with the gains coming in semi-winnable targets.
(1:17:50)
Ugh.
And this time their moral problems look worse.
Very sad. We need an Opposition.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132117695
https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1203694148550889474
Might be possible to take historical postal vote data and extrapolate for each constituency based on demographics. From a quick glance versus a few models I track, it looks like that PV bias would explain a lot of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hES7WlDLs8
Same nonsense.
be ashamed for posting it.
#pidcock2024
Any insights?
https://t.co/xTe4Cz8DZc https://t.co/98O6IIZXmG
As I've argued for some time, this election was called (in terms of being a contest) on the night of June 11th when ComRes anointed Boris Johnson as Conservative leader.
Frustrating Brexit was never going to end well for those doing the frustrating as in any battle between PM and Parliament, the former was always coming to come out on top. We saw with each week of obfuscation and delay the Conservative poll share rising inexorably.
In a sense, getting this contest done and giving Johnson his majority is a case of getting the pain out of the way - the longer it went on, the worse the pain was going to get.
@HYUFD describes Johnson as a populist in the model of a Trump or a Salvini - I'm not 100% convinced, he's much less of a political outsider than Trump.
The question then becomes whether British politics in the 21st Century will come to emulate patterns we see in other parts of the world - one Party always in power and effecting change through periodic changes of leader and policy? Johnson acts like an Opposition leader coming into Government - he has scarcely mentioned May or Cameron or indeed anything the Conservatives have done or not done in Government since 2010.
I do think as with Trump there will be a core of voters who will stay loyal to Boris no matter what but getting them to turn out in local contests may be more of a challenge - I think the 2021 County elections (last fought at the height of May;s popularity) and the 2022 London local elections will be informative.
The Opposition cannot waste their time with personal attacks on Johnson - it's not effective. There will be plenty of lines on attack on the pledges and commitments Johnson has made and as we've seen with the nurses pledge, the reality behind the promise isn't always as it seems.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1203676495228604417?s=20
What does it even mean? "Personal care"?