Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?

123457»

Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    edited December 2019

    Angela Raynor on the debate "We are being ripped off by energy companies owned by foreign states." Labour doing their bit to improve international relations.

    Which part of the statement is untrue if any?
    Think she is believing her own claims about energy bills going up, as alleged by McMao and debunked by any FactCheck site - amongst the other stuff about the extra 6k per family "extra costs" stuff.

    Basically much of it was done in cash terms, ignoring inflation, and assuming that all the families in the country have rail season tickets.

    After inflation they are down. The fall is something like 15% or more, depending on your inflation measure.

    Sorry to be confrontation - but it is either stupidity or dishonesty.

    The rapid increase in energy Bills was under Ed Milliband.

    https://fullfact.org/election-2019/labour-claims-about-savings-under-their-policies-are-not-credible/
  • GIN1138 said:

    Final Survation poll of the campaign at midnight?

    https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1203237711831805953

    Only tonight's ELBOW and one more on Thursday morning left!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    edited December 2019

    ** Drum roll **

    Preliminary Sunil on Sunday ELBOW data (still awaiting Survation and BMG!): 11 polls with fieldwork end-dates 2nd to 8th December:

    Con 43.0 (+0.4)
    Lab 33.1 (+0.2)
    LD 12.6 (-0.5)
    Brex 2.9 (-0.6)

    Con lead 9.9 (+0.2)

    Andy_JS said:
    6% lead last week turns into a 9% lead this week...
    can we ELBOW it in?
    Adjustment for BMG (comparison with last week's ELBOW):

    Con 42.8 (+0.2)
    Lab 33.0 (+0.1)
    LD 12.7 (-0.4)
    Brex 3.0 (-0.5)

    Con lead 9.8 (+0.1)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited December 2019

    Some Scottish journos getting stuck into the 'SNPs fault that SLab are crap' narrative, so expect SLab to be getting a drubbing on Thursday.

    It's pretty much a heartwarming tradition in all Scottish election nowadays, along with considering any result for the SCons that doesn't involve them being reduced to one MP as a 'victory'.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    TudorRose said:

    ranier said:

    Question from occasional poster and even more occasional bettor:

    Is there any correlation between the number of candidate posters and the result on election night?

    In local constitutency (Stroud) the ratio is about 10:1 Lab:Con, even in the leafier parts of the constituency (and there are more green than con too). Though it should be a probable Con gain given the margin in 2017 the addition of local factors (remain seat, con candidate seen as an 'outsider' because she comes Witney...) Lab feels worth a punt at 6/4.

    Thoughts appreciated..

    Generally, no, there is no correlation. Tories, in particular, tend not to display posters because they are (mostly) conservative and don't like to show their preferences. I used to live in the Stroud constituency and I'd say if the polls are anywhere near correct then it ought to go Tory this time. The Greens have always done well there too.
    Tories don't put up posters because lefty scum smash their windows/key their cars if they do.

    It is just virtue signalling to put up a LibDem poster. Because we nice Tories just let them get on with it. If they started getting their windows smashed/cars keyed, you wouldn't see "WINNING HERE!" diamond ever again. That they do is a sign of how tolerant the right is in this country.
    Only time I have had my car keyed was when I made the mistake of leaving it near Tormead School in Guildford when they were leaving. It is a private girls school which is always in the country's top 10 for academic performance and the parents are almost exclusively wealthy and most likely to be Tory. The nice Tories may not key cars, but their brats are experts.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    Andy_JS said:

    Mango said:

    Byronic said:

    Mango said:

    Byronic said:

    I implore every PB-er in the world to watch that video of Boris in Jewish North London. If you can still vote for Corbyn after that....

    Indeed.

    And the despicable Johnson is even worse.

    Great, innit?
    So vote Lib Dem. Green. SNP. Mebyon Kernow. The Brexit Party. Or abstain.

    Just don't vote for Corbyn's Labour. A decent person cannot vote for anti-Semitism.

    No decent person could ever vote Brexit Party Ltd. If you vote for Claire Fox and the like, you are an enabler of genocide.

    I'll be voting Green. And hoping Berger wins in F&GG.

    But nothing will improve in the UK until the electoral system changes. 2011 felt like last-chance saloon for the current social contract.

    The Tories have absolutely nothing to offer over the next 10 years. The trouble is they will remain in power, failing to address the slow-burning structural issues. When the breaking point comes, I would really like there to be at least one international liberal alternative to fascism.
    What genocide are you referring to?
    Bosnia.

    Living Marxism.

    The scum that now all ply their trade for Spiked, having migrated from sub-polytechnic Marxism
    to oh-I'm-so-controversial libertarianism.

    Scum, all of them.
This discussion has been closed.