That would be wholly consistent with the notion of the Tory centre of gravity shifting Northwards into the Midlands and East Anglia. I would be surprised if there were a widespread reduction of majorities on that scale further South, but a few thousand off here, there and everywhere? Absolutely.
In 1997 the Conservatives were driven back to their southern heartlands around London with a few rural seats elsewhere. Shifting the core away from the traditional areas and allowing other parties to make progress might mean the Conservatives one day facing a pincer move from a revitalised and attractive Labour Party and an entrenched Liberal Democrat Party?
It may well be the next Conservative defeat will be severe - 100 seats anyone?
If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
There's just no way. I mean, the Tories didn't get below 150 even in 1997 and no one else has been close to 150 since 1935.
Which means either the anecdata is bollocks or 'we live in interesting times'
That tweet was talking about postal vote returns if you click into their tweet history, it's not massively surprising that Labour may be doing quite badly on postals.
I've got a pet theory that the Con vote is going to be hyper efficient this time round, the Tories are losing a lot of support in true blue seats in the south, while gaining in Lab held northern seats. What this likely means is that big majority seats like NE Hants, Maidenhead, Henley, E Hants, Cotswolds, Windsor, Surrey Heath etc will see their 22,000+ majorities reduced to half (or less) of that, with the gains coming in semi-winnable targets.
I think it will be interesting to see how the Tories will hold anything they hold in the North.
In Mansfield from last time it seems to be Lib Dem style local politics (see Kingston and Surbiton 1992-1997).
Will that work? And will the party be capable of changing itself sufficiently?
On the rumours circulating on twitter about Labour safe seats going Conservative, I would like to point out that a certain MP for Barrow and Furness in 2017 thought he had lost his seat in a landslide with a minute to go before the exit poll, and then won it by 800 votes.
On the rumours circulating on twitter about Labour safe seats going Conservative, I would like to point out that a certain MP for Barrow and Furness in 2017 thought he had lost his seat in a landslide with a minute to go before the exit poll, and then won it by 800 votes.
And that was the 2017 effect
So far there is no evidence it is happening again
The next three days need to be watched carefully for any evidence that 2017 may be the same but it is much less likely
It would be wise to discount Mousley as a source. No one would be more amused than me to see Labour getting kicked in its heartland, but Mousley is a Brexit enthusiast whose role in the BBC should be kept well clear of politics. As an example see his tweet from August; https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1166830795367100422
What the twitter rumours might be telling us is that traditional party voters (Labour and Conservative) are switching around by numbers unaccustomed for canvasers. Which probably is in line with the polls but it creates panic among people not used to large movements between parties.
Don't forget there hasn't been a large movement between the major parties since 1997, except for the LD in 2015.
It would be wise to discount Mousley as a source. No one would be more amused than me to see Labour getting kicked in its heartland, but Mousley is a Brexit enthusiast whose role in the BBC should be kept well clear of politics. As an example see his tweet from August; https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1166830795367100422
He's political, it doesn't mean he's unreliable, necessarily.
Though do we have a definite source for these claims?
It would be wise to discount Mousley as a source. No one would be more amused than me to see Labour getting kicked in its heartland, but Mousley is a Brexit enthusiast whose role in the BBC should be kept well clear of politics. As an example see his tweet from August; https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1166830795367100422
He's political, it doesn't mean he's unreliable, necessarily.
Though do we have a definite source for these claims?
He is a biased source who has not produced any evidence for his tweet. I agree that it may still be correct, but until he does produce evidence why would you accept him as having any more credibility than a claim from one of the party HQs? If this site is for betting information it is wise to know what may lie behind the source of information.
Not even "Neil" moved that out. Only a fully blown genuine Black Swan could do so now. Hard to see where it's coming from. Of course it wouldn't be a Black Swan if I could. It wouldn't even be a swan. Gary Neville's intervention yesterday on prime time Sky Sports was powerful and will no doubt cost the Cons a few votes but we (Labour) need something much much bigger than that.
On the rumours circulating on twitter about Labour safe seats going Conservative, I would like to point out that a certain MP for Barrow and Furness in 2017 thought he had lost his seat in a landslide with a minute to go before the exit poll, and then won it by 800 votes.
And that was the 2017 effect
So far there is no evidence it is happening again
The next three days need to be watched carefully for any evidence that 2017 may be the same but it is much less likely
True, no opinion poll this time has picket up a Labour surge since the manifesto bump. But canvassers where canvassing probably in the wrong areas in 2017 because they too did not pick up anything of the size that the opinion polls suggested.
For example lets say that your seat is made out of rich wealthy estates and poor council estates, now in the past 100 years you knew where to campaign depending on your party.
However since the EU referendum the poor council estates and the rich wealthy estates are switching parties, so canvassers would panic because they would see unusual drops among their past reliable votes without them noticing the pickup in areas where they didn't get votes in the past.
This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
According to UK Elect, Tories gain Burnley with 8% margin - surely not??
Any insights?
I think their model has a few odd forecasts, like this one. It's relying too heavily on how Remain or Leave a constituency is in my opinion. It also has Wolverhampton SE going to Labour which I don't think anyone seriously thinks will happen.
Also they have the Tories gaining Derby North by only 700 votes. It'll almost certainly be more than that with the Chris Williamson intervention.
According to UK Elect, Tories gain Burnley with 8% margin - surely not??
Any insights?
I think their model has a few odd forecasts, like this one. It's relying too heavily on how Remain or Leave a constituency is in my opinion. It also has Wolverhampton SE going to Labour which I don't think anyone seriously thinks will happen.
Well if the Conservatives are winning 75% of the Leaver vote you can roughly plot the Conservative vote based on the EU referendum results. But since Labour is getting only around 50% of the Remainer vote it's more tricky to find the Labour vote based on the referendum results.
Not even "Neil" moved that out. Only a fully blown genuine Black Swan could do so now. Hard to see where it's coming from. Of course it wouldn't be a Black Swan if I could. It wouldn't even be a swan. Gary Neville's intervention yesterday on prime time Sky Sports was powerful and will no doubt cost the Cons a few votes but we (Labour) need something much much bigger than that.
I think even most Labour supporters probably privately believe the Tories will win most seats, so the 5% return is the closest thing to free money anyone will ever see.
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
Only 10% gap predicted on last MRP though, and these being postals could perhaps make it seem like a close fight.
However, it seems unlikely the Tory lead has widened since then.
If you give a very strong weighting to the Survation poll of North West England (fieldwork 21-22 November) then that lead doesn't surprise me. If based only on that poll UK-Elect would forecast something fairly similar.
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.
Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
"Save us from that man". Wow.
I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
I live in Golders Green ward ... it generally over 70% Conservative
Interesting that the Finchley & GG constituency was Labour between 1997 and 2010 with the very mild-mannered Rudi Vis as MP. I bet he would be surprised by what's happened to the Labour Party today.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
It is one of those things which should arguably be state funded for the later stages of life, but is very intimate and needs very great care. Necessary in order that your own family relationship is not affected.
If Corbyn comes plonking along and demands that it must all be done by State employees decided by apparatchiks, it would kill the many excellent small and mid-size organisations already doing it. But that would not stop them doing the stupid.
Been through this this year, and we found a small local company who were dedicated to running at a small-but-sufficient margin who came 4 times a day. No idea how this happens in London, but is perhaps better in extended families. In North Notts we are still quite a local community.
Needs to be built on the back of personal care budgets, not a monolithic service. It is means tested, and more than about 30k savings iirc means you self fund.
The Doc has something good to say in the vid, except for the conspiracy theory bits. Needs a Royal Commission.
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
I think we know why he hasn't mentioned it during the election campaign. Look what happened to Theresa May when she tried to propose a policy on the subject during the last election campaign.
That's one hell of a logical fallacy you're relying on there.
Well I'm not relying on it as such. Just reaching for a quick and dirty 'common sense' argument since I'm not up for going down the a/s wormhole on this Sunday afternoon. I could, though, if I wanted to. Done it a few times.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
Yes, yes, calm down.
It's not much of a solution but it's better than anything the Conservatives have offered so far.
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
That's a relevant point during this campaign, but assuming the Tories are about to win it will be on them very quickly to tackle this issue.
This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.
Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
"Save us from that man". Wow.
I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
Labour have not run a campaign in Finchley & Golders Green at all... I've seen one poster and had just one election address leaflet. Lib Dems and Tory leaflets both in the high teens and arriving pretty every other day. Tory's ahead on the poster front but not by much. My hunch is Luciana will post a good second place within 10% of Mike Freer but enough tribal Labour vote will stick to enable Freer to win.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Hastings is very definitely the best chance of a Labour gain of those seats. The 3 most likely Labour gains at the election are Hastings, Chipping Barnet and Chingford in my opinion.
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
That's a relevant point during this campaign, but assuming the Tories are about to win it will be on them very quickly to tackle this issue.
Why would they try? May tried to and she was vilified for it and lost her majority as a result. Corbyn's Labour have taught other parties that you shouldn't try to tackle difficult elephants in the room.
I'd very much like to see an updated Welsh opinion poll. It wouldn't surprise me if Labour were to lose a few more seats in Wales than currently forecast.
This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.
At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.
They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.
Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
"Save us from that man". Wow.
I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
I've felt for a while that the first of the major parties to combine a dash of "Red Tory" or "Blue Labour" to an otherwise middle ground version of their previous politics will dominate for a while. Force of circumstances makes it look like the Tories may do it first. Labour would have to reject Momentum as well as trendy identity causes which looks unlikely. If the LibDems could reign back on some of their activist driven policies they could be well placed as could a new centre left party.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
And how would you know this unless you are actually a party official?
I don’t know what’s more depressing - how thick Labour’s employees are, or the insulting way the assume we must be as dense as they are.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
And how would you know this unless you are actually a party official?
I don’t know what’s more depressing - how thick Labour’s employees are, or the insulting way the assume we must be as dense as they are.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Hastings is very definitely the best chance of a Labour gain of those seats. The 3 most likely Labour gains at the election are Hastings, Chipping Barnet and Chingford in my opinion.
Jennifer Forbes is having very strong returns in Tory wards looking north of 25k votes.
I've felt for a while that the first of the major parties to combine a dash of "Red Tory" or "Blue Labour" to an otherwise middle ground version of their previous politics will dominate for a while. Force of circumstances makes it look like the Tories may do it first. Labour would have to reject Momentum as well as trendy identity causes which looks unlikely. If the LibDems could reign back on some of their activist driven policies they could be well placed as could a new centre left party.
Labour cannot do it because their activists wouldn't tolerate even a tiny bit of backtracking on how positive mass immigration and multiculturalism is. Most voters of course aren't against a certain amount of migration and multiculturalism but they think it shouldn't be unlimited. Labour activists believe saying it should be limited in any way is a form of racism and bigotry.
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
Social care investment takes pressure off the NHS and so it part pays for itself anyway.
And taxes should go up to pay for the rest . I’d be quite happy to pay a bit more tax to have a better funded social care system .
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Presumably East Worthing as they have no chance of unseating Bottomley in West Worthing (and maybe a 1% chance of winning East Worthing). OT, if Skinner falls in Bolsover does that make Bottomley Father of the House?
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
In England only and the big cost is nursing home care that labour are silent on
Boris has said nobody will have to sell their home and the manifesto states he will seek cross party support to resolve the issue. If he gets a majority I expect he will appoint a select committee to recommend a scheme by summer 2020 and will implement the recommendations in a new act
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
In England only and the big cost is nursing home care that labour are silent on
Boris has said nobody will have to sell their home and the manifesto states he will seek cross party support to resolve the issue. If he gets a majority In xpect he will appoint a select committee to recommend a scheme by summer 2020 and will implement the recommendations in a new act
It won’t recommend for years and by the time it does the UK won’t be able to afford it as it struggles to survive
Can I ask a quick betting question? I have a bet that needs 3 Leicester second half corners to win. They are awarded a third in the last 4-5 seconds and the final whistle blows before it is taken. Bookie isn't paying out, is that legit? Can't see anything in the t's and c's
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Tories sinking by the sea? Well well. That surprises me.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Tories sinking by the sea? Well well. That surprises me.
I would take any of her tidbits with an even larger grain of salt than usual.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Presumably East Worthing as they have no chance of unseating Bottomley in West Worthing (and maybe a 1% chance of winning East Worthing). OT, if Skinner falls in Bolsover does that make Bottomley Father of the House?
Yes, Peter Bottomley would be the next longest serving male MP.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Hastings is very definitely the best chance of a Labour gain of those seats. The 3 most likely Labour gains at the election are Hastings, Chipping Barnet and Chingford in my opinion.
I see there were some fairly big swings to Labour in Truro and Falmouth, Worthing West, and East Worthing and Shoreham in 2017, mainly at the expense of UKIP. Curious.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Hastings is very definitely the best chance of a Labour gain of those seats. The 3 most likely Labour gains at the election are Hastings, Chipping Barnet and Chingford in my opinion.
Probably true for Hastings and Chingford . And what is the common factor? Two of the most revolting Conservative candidates - one who insults the disabled and the other who has made a career of being offensive to all and sundry. I would be more impressed if Labour could win a seat without the assistance of their opponents.
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
In England only and the big cost is nursing home care that labour are silent on
Boris has said nobody will have to sell their home and the manifesto states he will seek cross party support to resolve the issue. If he gets a majority In xpect he will appoint a select committee to recommend a scheme by summer 2020 and will implement the recommendations in a new act
It won’t recommend for years and by the time it does the UK won’t be able to afford it as it struggles to survive
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
Can I ask a quick betting question? I have a bet that needs 3 Leicester second half corners to win. They are awarded a third in the last 4-5 seconds and the final whistle blows before it is taken. Bookie isn't paying out, is that legit? Can't see anything in the t's and c's
That seems very dodgy . If the ref awards a corner but not enough time surely that still counts .
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Presumably East Worthing as they have no chance of unseating Bottomley in West Worthing (and maybe a 1% chance of winning East Worthing). OT, if Skinner falls in Bolsover does that make Bottomley Father of the House?
Yes, Peter Bottomley would be the next longest serving male MP.
Boris once told us he had "a plan" for resolving the issue of the future funding of adult social care but we've heard nothing.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Who cares? Labour have solved it! No one will pay for any care after they are 65, because it will be free, so no one will pay.! Because it will be free. You see? No one pays.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
That's a relevant point during this campaign, but assuming the Tories are about to win it will be on them very quickly to tackle this issue.
Why would they try? May tried to and she was vilified for it and lost her majority as a result. Corbyn's Labour have taught other parties that you shouldn't try to tackle difficult elephants in the room.
To give an approx amount.
We are talking about roughly 15-20 billion a year. Maybe 400 hours a year for the people who need 3-4 visits a day at £20 per hour or so. We were looking at a little under 1k per month for my family member for that type of package.
One useful option would be offsetting against tax. In our case we had planned for it previously.
If you then go to residential care it is £600-£800 per week.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Excellent news. Labour deploying resources where it will make fuck all difference to the election.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
And how would you know this unless you are actually a party official?
I don’t know what’s more depressing - how thick Labour’s employees are, or the insulting way the assume we must be as dense as they are.
To be honest what is the poster trying to achieve, divert resource from seats under threat or is a genuine mole trying to tip tories off or just stark raving bonkers.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Tories sinking by the sea? Well well. That surprises me.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
But be selective about which you believe. As I have already said (and proved), Mousley is a Brexit troll who is about as reliable a source as a party hq.
I think even most Labour supporters probably privately believe the Tories will win most seats, so the 5% return is the closest thing to free money anyone will ever see.
I agree. 1.05 is buying money. But Roger Federer went 1.01 when he held 2 match points on serve in the Wimbledon final this year. Can Corbyn produce the equivalent of that Djokovic full stretch forehand return at 15/40? Will "Boris" then do what Roger did at 30/40 - pump the easiest of high volleys into the tramlines? If he does - and he does - it's deuce, i.e. hung parliament with Lab possibly largest party.
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
What’s puzzling me about them is that while we had them in the early days of the 2017 campaign, they had mostly disappeared by the end. This time around they seem very persistent.
At the same time, I will believe Con Gain Ashton when I see it and not one second before.
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
SW? I repeat, five weeks door-knocking in the Totnes constituency, I have not found a single Con --> Labour switcher.
FPT Catching up on this thread, not sure which is the more unreal, MalcolmG's continued bile and invective directed at any non-SNP fanatics which he thinks is "banter" or the parallel universe some of our ultra-left wing PBers seem to be occupying. Tories comfortably ahead in the polls, Twitter awash with Labour canvassers predicting utter doom and gloom and the PB lefties are talking as if Corbyn is walking into Downing Street on Friday. Next we will be getting new letters from a certain gentleman explaining how Jo becomes PM on Friday!
I hav eto respond to this, coming from a blinkered Tory who is bitter and twisted and comes across as sadder than Eyore , I say again get a life, me need fewer curmudgeons here, brighten your life up with some banter.
I've got a lot of time for your banter, Malc, because I know that deep down you are a Scottish Tory.
Labour very confident they are doing well in coastal constituencies - Truro\Falmouth - Camborne\Redruth - Worthing - Hastings - Southampton Itchen - Southend East\Rochford - Scarborough \whitby - Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
Tories sinking by the sea? Well well. That surprises me.
Labour have no hope in Truro. None whatsoever
There's not that many votes in it though. Surprised me what with Falmouth and its yachting set.
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
What’s puzzling me about them is that while we had them in the early days of the 2017 campaign, they had mostly disappeared by the end. This time around they seem very persistent.
At the same time, I will believe Con Gain Ashton when I see it and not one second before.
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
Nobody who votes for Corbyn is voting for anything other than poverty. That’s why only rich people are voting for him.
As for the rest of your lies, you seem to think we are all as dense as you. Newsflash - we’re not.
As for your bullying - as with you fellow bots melcf and Mysticrose, I fear you are showing the ugly side of Labour. That’s one reason why it’s no longer as simple as getting rid of the antisemitic liar currently leading it. The whole organisation probably has to go.
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
SW? I repeat, five weeks door-knocking in the Totnes constituency, I have not found a single Con --> Labour switcher.
I do not recall anyone calling Totnes other than a LD/Con contest so your experience is no surprise.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
I do not respond to trolls no matter how they try to provoke
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
What’s puzzling me about them is that while we had them in the early days of the 2017 campaign, they had mostly disappeared by the end. This time around they seem very persistent.
At the same time, I will believe Con Gain Ashton when I see it and not one second before.
Maybe if Labour ask for a recount?
I still won’t believe it until the ARO announces the Tory as the winner. Probably not then. I shall first check the level in my whisky bottle.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
Will you even be here on Friday?
Why are you voting Tory??? What are you voting FOR? Not AGAINST?
Why are you cheerlesding for billionaires??? Why are you cheerleading for a side that puts children in poverty? Why are you cheerleading for records of amount of homelessness? Why are you cheerleading for a political system that since 1979 has fought for the few not the many? A system that can find money for banks foreign wars tax avoidance but not address poverty?
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
Will you even be here on Friday?
Why are you voting Tory??? What are you voting FOR? Not AGAINST?
Why are you cheerlesding for billionaires??? Why are you cheerleading for a side that puts children in poverty? Why are you cheerleading for records of amount of homelessness? Why are you cheerleading for a political system that since 1979 has fought for the few not the many? A system that can find money for banks foreign wars tax avoidance but not address poverty?
Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.
The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
It's about time we started believing these hard-to-believe anecdotes. Unless we are being actively deceived or we are missing something (South West, South East, Wales), and with those two caveats in place, Con are going to Maj.
But be selective about which you believe. As I have already said (and proved), Mousley is a Brexit troll who is about as reliable a source as a party hq.
There is also no such seat as "stockport central".
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
I think I speak for many, not a few, when I say “fuck off”.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
I think I speak for many, not a few, when I say “fuck off”.
I agree. I like debate but such twitteresque posting is bullshit.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
I think I speak for many, not a few, when I say “fuck off”.
No, you speak for pretty well everyone.
Unlike Corbyn of course, who only cares about his fat cat mates, terrorists, tax evaders and worse.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
Will you even be here on Friday?
Why are you voting Tory??? What are you voting FOR? Not AGAINST?
Why are you cheerlesding for billionaires??? Why are you cheerleading for a side that puts children in poverty? Why are you cheerleading for records of amount of homelessness? Why are you cheerleading for a political system that since 1979 has fought for the few not the many? A system that can find money for banks foreign wars tax avoidance but not address poverty?
Mainly because it annoys people like you.
If that's the reason - be careful as the poster could be designed to elicit exactly that response.
Tory voter I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better) I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio) I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so) I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
As I commented earlier. Do not feed the trolls
You will look very stupid on Friday when you have to explain that Emily Owen won Aberconwy. Corbyn was there today got a massive crowd.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on. Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
Will you even be here on Friday?
Why are you voting Tory??? What are you voting FOR? Not AGAINST?
Why are you cheerlesding for billionaires??? Why are you cheerleading for a side that puts children in poverty? Why are you cheerleading for records of amount of homelessness? Why are you cheerleading for a political system that since 1979 has fought for the few not the many? A system that can find money for banks foreign wars tax avoidance but not address poverty?
Comments
It may well be the next Conservative defeat will be severe - 100 seats anyone?
In Mansfield from last time it seems to be Lib Dem style local politics (see Kingston and Surbiton 1992-1997).
Will that work? And will the party be capable of changing itself sufficiently?
So far there is no evidence it is happening again
The next three days need to be watched carefully for any evidence that 2017 may be the same but it is much less likely
https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1166830795367100422
Don't forget there hasn't been a large movement between the major parties since 1997, except for the LD in 2015.
Though do we have a definite source for these claims?
Yertiz
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1203699029185638401?s=20
But canvassers where canvassing probably in the wrong areas in 2017 because they too did not pick up anything of the size that the opinion polls suggested.
For example lets say that your seat is made out of rich wealthy estates and poor council estates, now in the past 100 years you knew where to campaign depending on your party.
However since the EU referendum the poor council estates and the rich wealthy estates are switching parties, so canvassers would panic because they would see unusual drops among their past reliable votes without them noticing the pickup in areas where they didn't get votes in the past.
So even if the tweet is correct its stating the obvious .
Also they have the Tories gaining Derby North by only 700 votes. It'll almost certainly be more than that with the Chris Williamson intervention.
But since Labour is getting only around 50% of the Remainer vote it's more tricky to find the Labour vote based on the referendum results.
It has huge impact on local Government funding as well but for some reason the Conservatives don't seem to want to talk about it.
Free stuff. FREEEEEEEEEE
Give it a rest, new poster. It’s exceedingly trite and tedious.
If Corbyn comes plonking along and demands that it must all be done by State employees decided by apparatchiks, it would kill the many excellent small and mid-size organisations already doing it. But that would not stop them doing the stupid.
Been through this this year, and we found a small local company who were dedicated to running at a small-but-sufficient margin who came 4 times a day. No idea how this happens in London, but is perhaps better in extended families. In North Notts we are still quite a local community.
Needs to be built on the back of personal care budgets, not a monolithic service. It is means tested, and more than about 30k savings iirc means you self fund.
The Doc has something good to say in the vid, except for the conspiracy theory bits. Needs a Royal Commission.
- Truro\Falmouth
- Camborne\Redruth
- Worthing
- Hastings
- Southampton Itchen
- Southend East\Rochford
- Scarborough \whitby
- Aberconwy
All held by Tories all had over 150 canvassers this weekend knocking on doors and senior labour officials. Tory presence just mp and councillors.
It's not much of a solution but it's better than anything the Conservatives have offered so far.
I feel like that South Park Tweek gif.
I don’t know what’s more depressing - how thick Labour’s employees are, or the insulting way the assume we must be as dense as they are.
And taxes should go up to pay for the rest . I’d be quite happy to pay a bit more tax to have a better funded social care system .
We can’t just keep ignoring the problem .
Not a game-changer, though, let alone a black swan.
Boris has said nobody will have to sell their home and the manifesto states he will seek cross party support to resolve the issue. If he gets a majority I
expect he will appoint a select committee to recommend a scheme by summer 2020 and will implement the recommendations in a new act
Fish.
We are talking about roughly 15-20 billion a year. Maybe 400 hours a year for the people who need 3-4 visits a day at £20 per hour or so. We were looking at a little under 1k per month for my family member for that type of package.
One useful option would be offsetting against tax. In our case we had planned for it previously.
If you then go to residential care it is £600-£800 per week.
But many here will have done this.
If we believe, that is.
To be honest what is the poster trying to achieve, divert resource from seats under threat or is a genuine mole trying to tip tories off or just stark raving bonkers.
People who are voting for Something not against
Emily wants to end poverty in Wales and you want to carry it on.
Emily wants to end homelessness. You want it to continue and continue the second home ownership cancer that is spreading across the UK.
Shame on you for turning your back on poverty.
At the same time, I will believe Con Gain Ashton when I see it and not one second before.
Oh, that was the one from the Times...
Trying to think who would be most grateful for trying to expunge that from the agenda....
As for the rest of your lies, you seem to think we are all as dense as you. Newsflash - we’re not.
As for your bullying - as with you fellow bots melcf and Mysticrose, I fear you are showing the ugly side of Labour. That’s one reason why it’s no longer as simple as getting rid of the antisemitic liar currently leading it. The whole organisation probably has to go.
And that is my last post to you
And the despicable Johnson is even worse.
Great, innit?
Why are you cheerlesding for billionaires???
Why are you cheerleading for a side that puts children in poverty?
Why are you cheerleading for records of amount of homelessness?
Why are you cheerleading for a political system that since 1979 has fought for the few not the many? A system that can find money for banks foreign wars tax avoidance but not address poverty?
Just don't vote for Corbyn's Labour. A decent person cannot vote for anti-Semitism.
Unlike Corbyn of course, who only cares about his fat cat mates, terrorists, tax evaders and worse.
Or Johnson, who cares about his latest squeeze.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/labour-antisemitism-row-may-affect-election-result-says-mcdonnell