Didn't Nokia go bust because they couldn't adapt to the smartphone era?
No. Nokia still exists. Nokia sold their mobile phones business to Microsoft, which then ran it down and eventually flogged the remains to Foxconn. The other side of Nokia — Nokia Networks, the bit that makes carrier equipment for building mobile networks — still exists and is doing reasonably well.
New Nokia mobile phones are designed and sold by a Finnish company called HMD, which licenses Nokia IP, with the manufacturing done by various ODM companies.
The Nokia phones are worth looking at again, quite good specs and value.
It appears like it, starting to appear on other mainstream twitter accounts. Think it's the latest Gina Miller one. I only posted once it had gone up on a relatively trustworthy account.
Yes you're right according to this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on! Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y. Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
And how would you differentiate the two?
The above is wrong and should read probabilty of something when quoted 'x/y' in traditional odds is y/(y+x) - hence a three sided dice would be priced 2/1 for each runner and this 1/3 probability for each of them.
Which is why I always try to quote odds as a percentage chance
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Dead flat, and no sunshine in the winter.
Lakes and forests are beautiful in the warmer seasons. If the IQ thing is true it may have something to do with the language, which is very difficult for foreigners to master. Despite (or perhaps because of) this they have the largest number of general magazines per capita: Ninety percent of citizens over the age of 15 spend about 40 minutes reading a daily newspaper ... The Finnish national library system, with nearly 1,000 libraries, has the most books per capita compared to other European countries. Not surprisingly, more books are borrowed per capita from their national library system than from other European systems.
Apparently only 4 million tuned into last nights debate .
That’s woeful .
And most of them were probably the atypically interested, i.e. they'd already made their minds up. More broadly bit looks like the electorate has, for the most part, decided. It's the most obvious explanation for the flatlining of the polls.
How does Scotland ever have a second referendum? If people keep voting SNP, I don't see how it can just be denied
I have no problem in granting Scotland a second referendum post the 2021 Holyrood elections if the SNP have a majority
I also am confident they would vote no again
My concern isn't so much with there being a second referendum. It's the prospect of a third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh if the independence movement can't make it across the finishing line.
I think the Quebec model probably indicates that at some point even supporters get referendum fatigue.
You might be proved right if the saga drags on for long enough, but I doubt it. Scotland is one of the most ancient nation states of Europe, and a very large proportion of its population is heavily invested in getting it out of the Union.
I was not suggesting that independence would not at some point win, rather that if it went to a 3rd, 4th, 5th ... referendum without leave winning, then fatigue would probably set in.
I did have a link, but I have done my Xmas shopping, got home, and finished a bottle of wine, and so am now in the Byronic zone. How about you take my word for it?
A whole bottle by 4 pm? Rock and roll.
And I have just replaced my hifi cables at not inconsiderable expense. It sounds much louder now. Largely because I have the volume turned up.
Isn't the whole hifi cables thing snakeoil? I mean, you get some cheap thick copper cables with low resistance and hey presto the whole signal gets through! No need to spend £250 per meter, £2.50 will do just as well.
Yes you're right according to this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html But that doesn't make sense to me which is why I don't bet odds on! Incidentally the probability of a Tory majority is now 73.5% using that.
Fractional odds x/y means (probability of event not occurring):(probability of event) = x:y. Decimal odds D means implied probability is 1/D.
The trouble with fractional odds is they are not fractions, they are ratios.
And how would you differentiate the two?
The above is wrong and should read probabilty of something when quoted 'x/y' in traditional odds is y/(y+x) - hence a three sided dice would be priced 2/1 for each runner and this 1/3 probability for each of them.
Which is why I always try to quote odds as a percentage chance
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness ( and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Dead flat, and no sunshine in the winter.
Lakes and forests are beautiful in the warmer seasons. If the IQ thing is true it may have something to do with the language, which is very difficult for foreigners to master. Despite (or perhaps because of) this they have the largest number of general magazines per capita: Ninety percent of citizens over the age of 15 spend about 40 minutes reading a daily newspaper ... The Finnish national library system, with nearly 1,000 libraries, has the most books per capita compared to other European countries. Not surprisingly, more books are borrowed per capita from their national library system than from other European systems.
It’s amazing how foreigners seem so able to learn such complicated languages. At such a young age, too.
The dates on those polls overlap - if they really include the same data for the 2nd and 3rd then something absolutely turbo charging happened to the Labour vote on 4th and 5th with the tory vote still holding solid. A little hard to believe but there we are.
I did have a link, but I have done my Xmas shopping, got home, and finished a bottle of wine, and so am now in the Byronic zone. How about you take my word for it?
A whole bottle by 4 pm? Rock and roll.
And I have just replaced my hifi cables at not inconsiderable expense. It sounds much louder now. Largely because I have the volume turned up.
Isn't the whole hifi cables thing snakeoil? I mean, you get some cheap thick copper cables with low resistance and hey presto the whole signal gets through! No need to spend £250 per meter, £2.50 will do just as well.
Probably. So far I only have the new CD to amp connector; the speaker cables are in the post. Ask me next week.
Hello G, not convinced by today's poll, hard to see them drop 5% in a few days with no obvious reason. Boris is an abomination and it shows what dire straits the UK is in when a lying charlatan like him is the PM. I still think we will see SNP in mid 40's seat wise and it will be bigger at Holyrood and for sure 2nd referendum.
I think that is fair but I am not convinced Scotland will vote yes in any referendum
The winds that swirl making timings for a Scottish Indy ref favourable or otherwise must be somewhat annoying for the SNP.
I also don't imagine that currently the SNP has the vote over the line. but its perhaps not a good point for them given the background. A really good opportunity will come next year assuming Boris gets elected, but the economic case will be as bad as its ever been.
No shortage of challenge for the SNP, but if they get it right, then good for them.
One would assume that Brexit makes the economic case for Sindy harder. Certainly a hard brexit.
How much did the 2017 polls overstate the SNP share and understate the SCon share? You all laughed at me for predicting SCon gains in 2017 just as you did at me predicting a Liberal meltdown in 2015
Bullshit. Everyone on here was recommending piling on SCon seat bets. SCon over 9 seats was my biggest winner.
With the exception of malcolmg no one was mocking anyone for predicting a SCon surge in 2017.
SCon seat numbers market, tipped on here a couple of weeks out, saved my book from ending up twice as bad as it did in 2017.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
Finland also has a suicide rate about three times that of the UK
Dead flat, and no sunshine in the winter.
Is hilly land less depressing?
Absolutely! The hills are alive.
I disagree, flatlands - big sky. Valley bottom - no sunshine at all.
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
Decline in the North means Labour seats with small majorities become Tory seats. No direct transfer needed.
Which ones? Of the ones mention I have already called out four, which I'm very sure Lincoln Scunthorpe Wrexham Vale of clywd -- Grimsby looks like it's falling. Many are well above the 5-10% swing margin. No one want to debate Constituency wise or give any feedback. I have just got back from Lincoln, trust me, dunno who is winning but the Tory guy is a dkhead, with no popularity whatsoever
I think both Lincoln and Scunthorpe will go blue along with Grimsby. Also Labour to be reduced to just the three Nottingham city constituencies in Nottinghamshire.
Interesting to see the Tories immediately condemn Corbyn for Russian interference here but go completely silent on clear disinformation in this country for Corbyn involving the terrorist attack
It is not the conservatives. It is Reddit who have raised it and with some justification
I can imagine labour being quiet if the shoe was on tbe other foot
The Tories here I meant, not the Tory Party.
So will you condemn the disinformation campaign against Corbyn which a fake Tweet which went viral said he supported the terrorist?
This is definitely one case where the supposed disinformation comes closer to the truth than anything Corbyn actually said...
So that's a no then. Not surprised - but utterly pathetic response.
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
Why did Comres have others go from 1% to 5% in their last poll? Seems odd.
They changed to asking people about the candidates in their specific constituencies, which will have included named independents. There is a lot of randomness in the incidence and significance of independent candidates score so if they happened to pick a disproportionate number of constituencies with well known independents (e.g. Grieve, Field, Soubry etc) then sampling error could have given an unusually high score. Given that others score has probably just reverted to around the norm I don't see anything in the latest ComRes that should give cause to question the poll.
Leaks presumably, seen it a few times before a big poll - and of course we have multiple coming out on Saturday, so much more likely about now. People are tossing around tens of thousands so worth doing.
Of course, if that single leak was a bit of an outlier they could get burned :-)
Now that is very interesting, and it's even before a very close debate.
The Chicken Bozo effect? Didn’t do Mrs M any favour to be running away.
Doubt it. Apart from anything else there's something weird going on with the dates. Fieldwork on the Panelbase that was published yesterday was actually completed after this Comres, and it gave results in line with recent trends.
Again, more data needed. If the rest of the polls do show a Labour upswing then it'll probably be down to the squeeze on the Lib Dems starting up again, rather than the Con vote declining because of what Boris Johnson has done, or for any other reason. But let's wait and see.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
Of course, we must not lose sight of the fact that in 2017 the outliers did get the result right.
I doubt the markets moved much when Survation came out
And haven't pollster adjusted their behaviour since then?
I don't know - but that wasn't my point. It's that outliers don't tend to move the markets because they're outliers. But that means for us bettors there's potential money to be made.
Martin Boons comment re. ComRes interesting. Suggests ComRes numbers indicate PC and SNP numberw collapsing which he notes as unlikely. So a very odd poll.
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
and there are millions of people living in Great Britain who are "genuinely terrified" of a Johnson overall majority government.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
I understand why you do that and not wishing to piss on your campfire (full marks for even having a model) but you are not going to capture a late swing if there is one are you?
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
Now that is very interesting, and it's even before a very close debate.
The Chicken Bozo effect? Didn’t do Mrs M any favour to be running away.
Doubt it. Apart from anything else there's something weird going on with the dates. Fieldwork on the Panelbase that was published yesterday was actually completed after this Comres, and it gave results in line with recent trends.
Again, more data needed. If the rest of the polls do show a Labour upswing then it'll probably be down to the squeeze on the Lib Dems starting up again, rather than the Con vote declining because of what Boris Johnson has done, or for any other reason. But let's wait and see.
11% for the LibDems is as low as they have been for a long time.
I don't feel confident about what the result is going to be but I do think shortcomings in TV coverage have assisted Labour relative to the Tories and both of them relative to the LDs. I refer to the unrelenting emphasis on covering process and personalities at the expense of policies. A random example this morning was a Labour spokesperson being grilled for ten minutes on whether "Corbyn had changed the narrative during the debate" on BBC breakafast TV.
Both the Tories and Labour have gaping credibility issues in terms of delivering. In Labour's case they have a manifesto that taken as a whole is lunatic fringe. There been no detailed discussion though on TV! A lot of the electorate will discount generalised attacks so some of the resilience in the Labour vote is that the detail of their manifesto is still not getting properly scrutinised by mainstream commentators.
I also think the IFS commentary on the manifestos was either the result of cowardice (easier to condemn all parties as unrealistic than to grade them) or shockingly innumerate. Yes, the LDs and Tories have a degree of recklessness in their pledges but Labour are in another league. Its like comparing a slap in the face with getting your skull crushed by an iron bar.
Comments
Ninety percent of citizens over the age of 15 spend about 40 minutes reading a daily newspaper ... The Finnish national library system, with nearly 1,000 libraries, has the most books per capita compared to other European countries. Not surprisingly, more books are borrowed per capita from their national library system than from other European systems.
BMG has consistently had the lowest Con lead.
Why?
Is everyone's base samples the same and it's purely weighting/likely hood to vote or are people working of different raw samples.
How does the sample to final number compare to 2017?
We await the tables.
ComRes 2-5 Dec
Panelbase 4-6 Dec
The Survation with the 1pt Con lead in 2017 was one of the final polls published the day before the election.
I will keep it as an outlier for now - but this is pleasing me.
Lead down to 6. The Neil takedown?
https://opinionbee.uk/poll/4265/savanta-comres-telegraph-2-3-dec-2019-westminster-voting-intention
https://opinionbee.uk/poll/4268/savanta-comres-sunday-telegraph-2-5-dec-2019-westminster-voting-intention
P.S turns out it was just a Torygraph poll.
It is remainers seeing it as their last chance to stop brexit and they feel they can control Corbyn
My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
I doubt the markets moved much when Survation came out
Of course, if that single leak was a bit of an outlier they could get burned :-)
Again, more data needed. If the rest of the polls do show a Labour upswing then it'll probably be down to the squeeze on the Lib Dems starting up again, rather than the Con vote declining because of what Boris Johnson has done, or for any other reason. But let's wait and see.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256
Con - 44% (+1)
Lab - 32% (-2)
LD - 12% (-1)
SNP - 4% (+1)
PC - N/A
Green - 2% (=)
BP - 3% (-2)
Other - 5% (+4)
Excellent timing for scaring the less motivated.
See top-right of the page, links to 2010/15/17/19 election pages, and also all polls for those.
Both the Tories and Labour have gaping credibility issues in terms of delivering. In Labour's case they have a manifesto that taken as a whole is lunatic fringe. There been no detailed discussion though on TV! A lot of the electorate will discount generalised attacks so some of the resilience in the Labour vote is that the detail of their manifesto is still not getting properly scrutinised by mainstream commentators.
I also think the IFS commentary on the manifestos was either the result of cowardice (easier to condemn all parties as unrealistic than to grade them) or shockingly innumerate. Yes, the LDs and Tories have a degree of recklessness in their pledges but Labour are in another league. Its like comparing a slap in the face with getting your skull crushed by an iron bar.
But nope.