So Torie aren't really doing great in Scotland, neither in London or South Remania. People still expect them to reach 365 seats and crash the Northern Red wall! With a vote share that is less than 2017? Is this reality or just wishful thinking. I can go on record, that the below marginals, in Labour's red wall, are still red, as of today. Despie all polls painting them a deep blue Lincoln Scunthorpe Wrexham Vale of Clwyd
Unfortunately Dr Moderate falls at the first hurdle.
He assumes that demographic change means you can do a straight 'leavers dying off faster and Remainers being able to vote faster'. It doesn't. We know that people change their political vies as they get older and that they generally become more conservative. There is every reason to believe that applies to Remain/Leave as well with an aging population becoming more Leave. As has been pointed out in the past many of those 18 year olds who voted Remain in 1975 then voted Leave in 2016. No one can really quantify this effect but it is clear it will mean his basic assumptions in his first claim are wrong.
The questions on weighting as past voting in his post is correct, the question about who has changed their mind is a different one, which he addresses later on to an extent, but probably not adequately.
Personally, I think the bigger issue likely to affect polling results is the larger than usual number of unknowns or may-switchers. These are harder to adjust for, and are disproportionately female.
I must say I am actually relatively impressed with the groundgame in my ultra safe Tory seat this time around. Used to be I'd get one thing from the Tories, and about 4-5 from the LDs, but the latter have essentially given up it seems (devoting resources to winnable seats), and I've had 3 from the Tories, 2 from Labour and 2 from the Greens, with just 1 from the LDs.
Despite mentioning the constituency the latest Tory one says the election will be close, I presume nationally. They are not triumphant on leaflets at any rate.
Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is
Not all bad outcomes are the same. An SNP or a LD MP will both back remain vociferously, but longer term the fewer Sindy supporting MPs the better for them (although given the SNP will easily have a majority of scottish seats, it won't make that much difference).
I have yet to meet a single SCon voter in Ross-shire who intends to vote SLib on Thursday. It was us not the SLibs who were 2nd behind the Fat Laird in 2017. Other than by the Nats he is hated in the constituency!
Unfortunately Dr Moderate falls at the first hurdle.
He assumes that demographic change means you can do a straight 'leavers dying off faster and Remainers being able to vote faster'. It doesn't. We know that people change their political vies as they get older and that they generally become more conservative. There is every reason to believe that applies to Remain/Leave as well with an aging population becoming more Leave. As has been pointed out in the past many of those 18 year olds who voted Remain in 1975 then voted Leave in 2016. No one can really quantify this effect but it is clear it will mean his basic assumptions in his first claim are wrong.
The questions on weighting as past voting in his post is correct, the question about who has changed their mind is a different one, which he addresses later on to an extent, but probably not adequately.
Personally, I think the bigger issue likely to affect polling results is the larger than usual number of unknowns or may-switchers. These are harder to adjust for, and are disproportionately female.
I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat. The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland. If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.
On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.
For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.
Scottish Labour are never coming back, are they? Quite amazing. The death of a party, in real time.
I don't believe Labour down south have really processed what this means, yet. Because it spells grave danger for them, especially if they pursue a socialist agenda.
Don't forget the same was said about scottish Conservatives and a generation later they popped up in exactly the same areas and in the same strength.
The SNP coalition is simply to wide to hold forever and they already have been in power in scotland for 11 years, we don't know how their coalition would react if they lose power in the scottish assembly.
It's very difficult for a party to hold seats in both the Highlands and Glasgow, they are very different places, the SNP is already cracking along those fault lines.
I'm not generally one to say anything in favour of the Labour party - but I could genuinely get behind this. This sort of infrastructure spending will have a positive impact on public health - more, I would suggest, than an equivalent amount of health spending - and will also pay for itself in the long run due to lower running costs. Carbon reduction benefits are a clear added bonus.
BUT - even if Labour wither and die as a party, I'd be very surprised if this doesn't happen anyway. Current government policy is pushing us this way in cities but the market will ensure we get there within a decade. There won't be many combustion engines left in ten years - public or private. This is a great promise, since it is like promising that under a Labour government the sun will come up.
I must say I am actually relatively impressed with the groundgame in my ultra safe Tory seat this time around. Used to be I'd get one thing from the Tories, and about 4-5 from the LDs, but the latter have essentially given up it seems (devoting resources to winnable seats), and I've had 3 from the Tories, 2 from Labour and 2 from the Greens, with just 1 from the LDs.
Despite mentioning the constituency the latest Tory one says the election will be close, I presume nationally. They are not triumphant on leaflets at any rate.
I think they are targeting you specifically, rather than your seat.
For those that are interested, I now am able to scrape the BBC results site in real time. Locally I can definitely create a live spreadsheet of results vs YouGov MRP vs 2017 etc.
I think the question is how best to make it live to PBers.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat. The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland. If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.
On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.
For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.
Scottish Labour are never coming back, are they? Quite amazing. The death of a party, in real time.
I don't believe Labour down south have really processed what this means, yet. Because it spells grave danger for them, especially if they pursue a socialist agenda.
Surely Kirkcaldy is nailed on for Labour?
It would be hilarious if the SNP deserted en masse to the Greens and gave them their second seat.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
Hi, has anyone got any info on the Tory/Labour fight in Mansfield....(apologies to the scottish debate)
Unfortunately not. But I do have info that Labour are throwing a lot in defending nearby Bolsover and have abandoned Ashfield, so I don't expect Labour to be trying to gain Mansfield.
Interesting, the odds on labour did seem tempting.......i thought the sitting young Tory may be vulnerable if Labour had a good candidate...i suppose Mansfield isnt exactly easy for the Momentum minibuses.....
The Labour strategy has been to defend in the north, advance in the south. The Conservative strategy is the reverse one.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
Huh?!
It is clear you don’t know much about Scottish Labour. As we speak, their activists in Stirling are trying to persuade SLab supporters to lend their vote to the incumbent Tory.
And that is standard behaviour: they have been at it for years.
On thread - If we're expecting Lab to decline further in Scotland with votes going to the SNP, that doesn't necessarily spell disaster for Scon. You would have thought that most of the Lab-SNP movement would be in the Central Belt, and that in the SNP/SCon tossups Lab have been pretty much squeezed out already? I am posting this without the detailed information in front of me, so feel free to correct!
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
Wishful thinking
What I mean is, it will show a HP and then go badly wrong for one side
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
English Labour should throw SLAB under a Falkirk-built bus and support scots independence. Scotland is a drag on the chances of a Labour majority government in Westminster.
Indeed.
Scottish independence will also be thoroughly positive for English public life too. Cathartic.
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
Huh?!
It is clear you don’t know much about Scottish Labour. As we speak, their activists in Stirling are trying to persuade SLab supporters to lend their vote to the incumbent Tory.
And that is standard behaviour: they have been at it for years.
Absolute truth, they hate the SNP rabidly, and this has been a root cause of their decline in Scotland.
They've lost all sense. Neil Findlay's recent 'success' as Euro Elections guru will attest to that.
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
Huh?!
It is clear you don’t know much about Scottish Labour. As we speak, their activists in Stirling are trying to persuade SLab supporters to lend their vote to the incumbent Tory.
And that is standard behaviour: they have been at it for years.
The SNP will support Labour, they won't support the Tories.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
Didn't Nokia go bust because they couldn't adapt to the smartphone era?
So Torie aren't really doing great in Scotland, neither in London or South Remania. People still expect them to reach 365 seats and crash the Northern Red wall! With a vote share that is less than 2017? Is this reality or just wishful thinking. I can go on record, that the below marginals, in Labour's red wall, are still red, as of today. Despie all polls painting them a deep blue Lincoln Scunthorpe Wrexham Vale of Clwyd
SCons polling at their 2017 vote share already hardly not doing very well
So silly that there were big, empty, heart shaped bubbles plopping out of the heads of supposedy clear eyed, rational PBers.
She was a short price for next Tory leader at one point. Still, so was Rees Mogg and that was just as bizarre. As if the Tories would confirm lazy stereotypes and go for yet another old etonian.
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
English Labour should throw SLAB under a Falkirk-built bus and support scots independence. Scotland is a drag on the chances of a Labour majority government in Westminster.
Indeed.
Scottish independence will also be thoroughly positive for English public life too. Cathartic.
It'll be reminiscent of Catharism? Hot take.
But being serious I don't wish to find that out, but if it must happen I hope that prediction proves true.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
In the last 3 elections the swing in Sunderland was against the national trend.
The only situation in the last decade where one would have correctly predicted a national result from Sunderland would have been the EU referendum.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
I must say I am actually relatively impressed with the groundgame in my ultra safe Tory seat this time around. Used to be I'd get one thing from the Tories, and about 4-5 from the LDs, but the latter have essentially given up it seems (devoting resources to winnable seats), and I've had 3 from the Tories, 2 from Labour and 2 from the Greens, with just 1 from the LDs.
Despite mentioning the constituency the latest Tory one says the election will be close, I presume nationally. They are not triumphant on leaflets at any rate.
They will pretend this evening to be bedwetting claiming comrade corbyn is on the verge of getting the keys for no 10 and the only way to save our country and all that is good about will be to vote Tory.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
In the last 3 elections the swing in Sunderland was against the national trend.
The only situation in the last decade where one would have correctly predicted a national result from Sunderland would have been the EU referendum.
If the Tories take any of the Sunderland seats however...
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
All comes down to the collective wisdom and intelligence of the British public. I'm not sure I have that much faith in myself, let alone the amorphous mass of the public.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
Sorry mister, it's nothing like 1992, this is my 14th election and it feels more like 1979 to me. I know that resulted in a change of government but this also feels like a change of government from a hung Parliament as it was also a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party back then. The Lib/Dems slumped in 1979 and seem to be doing the same now, there was also a lot of Scottish nationalism around too. In 1992 of course the government was re-elected with a majority of 21 after polls indicated a hung Patliament.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
Huh?!
It is clear you don’t know much about Scottish Labour. As we speak, their activists in Stirling are trying to persuade SLab supporters to lend their vote to the incumbent Tory.
And that is standard behaviour: they have been at it for years.
The SNP will support Labour, they won't support the Tories.
I think Stuart Dickson is correct in this.
There is always a level of tribal hatred and political rivarly between rival left of centre parties, because they are fishing in the same pond.
The very old Socialist vs Communist rivarly is a historical example.
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
Decline in the North means Labour seats with small majorities become Tory seats. No direct transfer needed.
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
That was a nightmare one to watch, a nightmare. Best is where the exit poll overstates the Tories and then you come back as the action unfolds. As in my example there of what might happen this time. The 50 seat Con majority slowly but surely mutates into hung parliament, Cons on 303, as the sun rises. Gosh, I'd be up for a bowl of frosties then, I can tell you.
- “One thing that might help is that the SNP seems to be making Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire their main target.”
Ho ho.
Top tip: don’t believe everything you read on Twitter.
Stuart - what do you think will happen in Kirkcaldy?
Easy SLab hold. Lesley Laird is easily the 2nd most competent SLab MP, after Murray. In fact, she is better than every single one of their MSPs too. Which isn’t saying much, as all their MSPs are idiots.
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
English Labour should throw SLAB under a Falkirk-built bus and support scots independence. Scotland is a drag on the chances of a Labour majority government in Westminster.
Indeed.
Scottish independence will also be thoroughly positive for English public life too. Cathartic.
I have two requirements for my place of abode. 1) within the EU. 2) on the ECML. The polls suggest that Scottish independence is my best chance of having in the future what I have in the present.
PS what's with the avatar? I saw the STory leader on the TV for the first time the other day and my first thought was 'that's the guy who posts all the odds on PB'.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
In which case you better hope they don’t pay too much attention to the Lib Dem leaflets.
- “One thing that might help is that the SNP seems to be making Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire their main target.”
Ho ho.
Top tip: don’t believe everything you read on Twitter.
Stuart - what do you think will happen in Kirkcaldy?
Easy SLab hold. Lesley Laird is easily the 2nd most competent SLab MP, after Murray. In fact, she is better than every single one of their MSPs too. Which isn’t saying much, as all their MSPs are idiots.
Shadsy’s 4/6 is good value.
Stuart, are you hearing any rumblings from Edinburgh South? Have heard that the SCon votes lent to Ian Murray might be ebbing away.
I know he's got a very comfortable majority, so it is an unlikely loss, but I thought he was a well respected constituency MP, despite party affiliations.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
All comes down to the collective wisdom and intelligence of the British public. I'm not sure I have that much faith in myself, let alone the amorphous mass of the public.
You can make a test using some very basic questions to find the public mood, like these:
Did you like the previous 2 years of Hung Parliament ? Do you think Boris is better than May ? Are you in favour or against Brexit ? Do you think that Labour forming a minority government would make things better ? Do you think Corbyn will stop or not Brexit ?
Answering those 5 basic questions would give anyone a very good idea who you would vote for in this election.
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
They also have very low inequality, with good jobs providing a good lifestyle including housing. Aspiration, society and meritocracy result in higher levels of education and happiness than social division, your wealth being determined by your parents, and assets being owned by the few. Who would have thought it?
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
All comes down to the collective wisdom and intelligence of the British public. I'm not sure I have that much faith in myself, let alone the amorphous mass of the public.
You can make a test using some very basic questions to find the public mood, like these:
Did you like the previous 2 years of Hung Parliament ? Do you think Boris is better than May ? Are you in favour or against Brexit ? Do you think that Labour forming a minority government would make things better ? Do you think Corbyn will stop or not Brexit ?
Answering those 5 basic questions would give anyone a very good idea who you would vote for in this election.
And even a simple, Has nearly a decade of Tory rule been great for this country?
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Yet Finns, the land of Nokia and early adopters of mobile telephony, have the highest IQs in Europe.
Is that really right? Sort of a meaningless thing, but I'm still surprised. (Any link you have I'd be interested, but happy to take your word for it)
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
Decline in the North means Labour seats with small majorities become Tory seats. No direct transfer needed.
Which ones? Of the ones mention I have already called out four, which I'm very sure Lincoln Scunthorpe Wrexham Vale of clywd -- Grimsby looks like it's falling. Many are well above the 5-10% swing margin. No one want to debate Constituency wise or give any feedback. I have just got back from Lincoln, trust me, dunno who is winning but the Tory guy is a dkhead, with no popularity whatsoever
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
This is exactly what I think
The decline in the north = BXP benefit is woefully simplistic. If more than the majority goes from Lab->BXP, the seat turns blue.
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
That was a nightmare one to watch, a nightmare. Best is where the exit poll overstates the Tories and then you come back as the action unfolds. As in my example there of what might happen this time. The 50 seat Con majority slowly but surely mutates into hung parliament, Cons on 303, as the sun rises. Gosh, I'd be up for a bowl of frosties then, I can tell you.
The two big counts of 2016 did not improve as the night progressed. Less a bowl of frosted flakes for breakfast; more a bowl of cold sick.
So Torie aren't really doing great in Scotland, neither in London or South Remania. People still expect them to reach 365 seats and crash the Northern Red wall! With a vote share that is less than 2017? Is this reality or just wishful thinking. I can go on record, that the below marginals, in Labour's red wall, are still red, as of today. Despie all polls painting them a deep blue Lincoln Scunthorpe Wrexham Vale of Clwyd
Lincoln looks like just staying red to me too. Others have either turned blue or are on a knife-edge though. Labour down to a dozen or fewer seats in East Mids on Friday.
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
This is exactly what I think
Me too. Forget all that stuff from me about big Con majority. I had no clue and have now seen the light. It's tight, this one. It's tight as a duck's arse. No, that doesn't sound nice. Let's just agree that it could well be very tight.
How much did the 2017 polls overstate the SNP share and understate the SCon share? You all laughed at me for predicting SCon gains in 2017 just as you did at me predicting a Liberal meltdown in 2015
Bullshit. Everyone on here was recommending piling on SCon seat bets. SCon over 9 seats was my biggest winner.
With the exception of malcolmg no one was mocking anyone for predicting a SCon surge in 2017.
So Torie aren't really doing great in Scotland, neither in London or South Remania. People still expect them to reach 365 seats and crash the Northern Red wall! With a vote share that is less than 2017? Is this reality or just wishful thinking. I can go on record, that the below marginals, in Labour's red wall, are still red, as of today. Despie all polls painting them a deep blue Lincoln Scunthorpe Wrexham Vale of Clwyd
Lincoln looks like just staying red to me too. Others have either turned blue or are on a knife-edge though. Labour down to a dozen or fewer seats in East Mids on Friday.
I'm on Lincoln staying red. The tory candidate is simply egregious.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
All comes down to the collective wisdom and intelligence of the British public. I'm not sure I have that much faith in myself, let alone the amorphous mass of the public.
You can make a test using some very basic questions to find the public mood, like these:
Did you like the previous 2 years of Hung Parliament ? Do you think Boris is better than May ? Are you in favour or against Brexit ? Do you think that Labour forming a minority government would make things better ? Do you think Corbyn will stop or not Brexit ?
Answering those 5 basic questions would give anyone a very good idea who you would vote for in this election.
Though I think do need to allow for the fact that government unpopularity is a big factor in elections, and this government has a disapproval rating worse thanthe least popular leader. I do wonder whether that is going to work against the incumbents on both sides.
Boris Johnson today on why he decided to keep the Russia report under wraps:
"Well I can repeat what I’ve already said about this, many times, which is that, I know of no evidence of any successful interference by Russia in any democratic event in this country and on the report, we (are) obviously just complying with the normal timetable for releasing such things and I saw no reason to release it earlier just because there was an election going on."
Liar! He's not abiding by a "normal timetable". Here's how the chairman of the committee that wrote the report responded at the time to Johnson's decision not to publish it:
"The committee’s chairman, Dominic Grieve, called the decision 'jaw dropping' saying no reason for the refusal had been given."
From the same article:
"Fresh evidence has also emerged of attempts by the Kremlin to infiltrate the Conservatives by a senior Russian diplomat suspected of espionage, who spent five years in London cultivating leading Tories including Johnson himself. [emphasis added]
It can now be revealed that Sergey Nalobin – who once described the future prime minister as 'our good friend' – lives in a Moscow apartment block known as the 'FSB house' because it houses so many employees from the Kremlin’s main spy agency.
The committee’s report is based on analysis from Britain’s intelligence agencies, as well as third-party experts such as the former MI6 officer Christopher Steele."
Johnson was the only Foreign Secretary I know of whose access to secret intelligence "Downing Street" tried to restrict because he was viewed as a security risk. Source:
BBC:"Downing Street attempted to withhold sensitive intelligence from Boris Johnson when he became foreign secretary, the BBC has learned."
- “One thing that might help is that the SNP seems to be making Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire their main target.”
Ho ho.
Top tip: don’t believe everything you read on Twitter.
Stuart - what do you think will happen in Kirkcaldy?
Easy SLab hold. Lesley Laird is easily the 2nd most competent SLab MP, after Murray. In fact, she is better than every single one of their MSPs too. Which isn’t saying much, as all their MSPs are idiots.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
All comes down to the collective wisdom and intelligence of the British public. I'm not sure I have that much faith in myself, let alone the amorphous mass of the public.
You can make a test using some very basic questions to find the public mood, like these:
Did you like the previous 2 years of Hung Parliament ? Do you think Boris is better than May ? Are you in favour or against Brexit ? Do you think that Labour forming a minority government would make things better ? Do you think Corbyn will stop or not Brexit ?
Answering those 5 basic questions would give anyone a very good idea who you would vote for in this election.
And even a simple, Has nearly a decade of Tory rule been great for this country?
Nope, that question can't be applied because there has been a change in Government, even if the same party is still in control a different faction has taken over. That is why I ask the Boris vs May question to simplify things.
Conservative Remainers for instance would probably choose May, but they would need to answer the other questions for us to find how they would vote.
Everyone talks about this mythical ' Great Brexit done/ Leave labour voters/ ' in the Northern areas Some prospective, some leave areas had very little EE migrants. Specially some areas of Wales. After 6 years of severe austerity, Brexit was one way for the locals to show their two fingers to the Tory establishment in London and throw a flaming Molotov cocktail at them. The same Etonian Johnson thinks he can tap into now, must be hungover
Just for thought, most of these most likely voted leave, who do you think they would vote for now?
So Labour's vote share, of 32-35% could be explained as Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit Decline in the North- BxP to benefit Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
This is exactly what I think
Me too. Forget all that stuff from me about big Con majority. I had no clue and have now seen the light. It's tight, this one. It's tight as a duck's arse. No, that doesn't sound nice. Let's just agree that it could well be very tight.
That's my sense too. My head 'thinks' the tories may just do it with a narrow majority but that's probably reverse psychology. My heart tells me this is hung parliament.
The two big counts of 2016 did not improve as the night progressed. Less a bowl of frosted flakes for breakfast; more a bowl of cold sick.
Oh god don't remind me. Brexit, Trump. The gruesome twosome. Betting profits did nothing - nothing - to mitigate. And they won't this time either. But anyway, enough of the gloom, I'm joining my fellow PB Labourites from here on in. It's hung parliament. Bye Boris. Close the door on your way out.
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
That was a nightmare one to watch, a nightmare. Best is where the exit poll overstates the Tories and then you come back as the action unfolds. As in my example there of what might happen this time. The 50 seat Con majority slowly but surely mutates into hung parliament, Cons on 303, as the sun rises. Gosh, I'd be up for a bowl of frosties then, I can tell you.
Then you realise that you were in a waking dream, and that the real figure is Cons on 403.
The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that cutting our ties with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country,
If you did some honest self reflection, you'd realise that if you have a valid point, you don't need to clothe it in vague metaphor.
What you mean is:
The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that leaving a set of treaty obligations comprising a customs union, a single market, and a set of supranational governing bodies with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country.
-When you dial down the dramatics, it's not baffling or sad, or particularly wonderful, it just is.
Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.
Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”
allegedly eh?
Oh dear imagine Boris having to actually see a real person in public, he would have been wetting his pants.
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
Predictions were for another wipeout. Relative to that is it a success.
Why is it that getting a whipping is always portrayed as a victory for Scottish ( sic) Tories.
It's not rocket science malc - they have literally been in a situation with no seats in Scotland, or 1 seat for an extended period. They should not be content to getting a distant second place, but it's not hard to see it as relative success when they know it could be so much worse.
The two big counts of 2016 did not improve as the night progressed. Less a bowl of frosted flakes for breakfast; more a bowl of cold sick.
Oh god don't remind me. Brexit, Trump. The gruesome twosome. Betting profits did nothing - nothing - to mitigate. And they won't this time either. But anyway, enough of the gloom, I'm joining my fellow PB Labourites from here on in. It's hung parliament. Bye Boris. Close the door on your way out.
Has despair given way to hope or have you had new betting intelligence?
Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is
Not all bad outcomes are the same. An SNP or a LD MP will both back remain vociferously, but longer term the fewer Sindy supporting MPs the better for them (although given the SNP will easily have a majority of scottish seats, it won't make that much difference).
I have yet to meet a single SCon voter in Ross-shire who intends to vote SLib on Thursday. It was us not the SLibs who were 2nd behind the Fat Laird in 2017. Other than by the Nats he is hated in the constituency!
Tories hate talent , they are so used to theirs being donkeys donkeys it really infuriates them
I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat. The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland. If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.
On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.
For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.
Scottish Labour are never coming back, are they? Quite amazing. The death of a party, in real time.
I don't believe Labour down south have really processed what this means, yet. Because it spells grave danger for them, especially if they pursue a socialist agenda.
Don't forget the same was said about scottish Conservatives and a generation later they popped up in exactly the same areas and in the same strength.
The SNP coalition is simply to wide to hold forever and they already have been in power in scotland for 11 years, we don't know how their coalition would react if they lose power in the scottish assembly.
It's very difficult for a party to hold seats in both the Highlands and Glasgow, they are very different places, the SNP is already cracking along those fault lines.
I think that's right. The Conservatives always had solid support in the Borders, even in bad years. Now the "Tartan Tories" in the North East have returned to them. At the same time, the SNP have hoovered up left wing votes in the central Belt.
Edinburgh has probably abandoned the Conservatives for good, but there's still a bit of an Orange vote for them in Ayrshire and Lanarkshire.
The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that cutting our ties with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country,
If you did some honest self reflection, you'd realise that if you have a valid point, you don't need to clothe it in vague metaphor.
What you mean is:
The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that leaving a set of treaty obligations comprising a customs union, a single market, and a set of supranational governing bodies with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country.
-When you dial down the dramatics, it's not baffling or sad, or particularly wonderful, it just is.
They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
Predictions were for another wipeout. Relative to that is it a success.
Why is it that getting a whipping is always portrayed as a victory for Scottish ( sic) Tories.
It's not rocket science malc - they have literally been in a situation with no seats in Scotland, or 1 seat for an extended period. They should not be content to getting a distant second place, but it's not hard to see it as relative success when they know it could be so much worse.
I sense that the Curtice exit poll is going to call it wrong this time. The last 3 elections it's been brilliant. Time for a fall from grace. 10 pm. Bong. Bong. Edwards, "It's a Conservative majority of 50." 12.30 am Sunderland or similar. Edwards, "Oh, Labour have held this one comfortably. That was not quite what we were expecting, Professor, was it?" Curtice, "Well I did say there is always uncertainty." Edwards, "So what now? Hung parliament?" Curtice, "Very possibly. Let's just see what happens in Dudley North."
I have a gut feeling it will be re-adjusted quickly but may well show a HP.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
I don’t think so. All my anecdota suggest that “get brexit done” - the latest lie from that oik Cummings - is hitting home and the Tories do have a significant vote share lead
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
All comes down to the collective wisdom and intelligence of the British public. I'm not sure I have that much faith in myself, let alone the amorphous mass of the public.
You can make a test using some very basic questions to find the public mood, like these:
Did you like the previous 2 years of Hung Parliament ? Do you think Boris is better than May ? Are you in favour or against Brexit ? Do you think that Labour forming a minority government would make things better ? Do you think Corbyn will stop or not Brexit ?
Answering those 5 basic questions would give anyone a very good idea who you would vote for in this election.
And even a simple, Has nearly a decade of Tory rule been great for this country?
Nope, that question can't be applied because there has been a change in Government, even if the same party is still in control a different faction has taken over. That is why I ask the Boris vs May question to simplify things.
Conservative Remainers for instance would probably choose May, but they would need to answer the other questions for us to find how they would vote.
Bojo was a Minister in the previous Governments , just like Jo Swinson was in 2010
What does a 24 point gap on the MORI leadership polling imply?
Nothing. It's the 36-24=12 that implies a 12% voting intention lead which equals the top line figure.
There is no point to over analyze it, which ever way you crawl through the Mori tables the result is 10-12% Conservative lead, there is no inconsistency.
Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.
Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”
allegedly eh?
Oh dear imagine Boris having to actually see a real person in public, he would have been wetting his pants.
Afternoon Malc. I have been following this election most of the time and it is clear he is meeting many real people and I am amazed how many seem to be genuinely enthused by him with lots of selfies.
It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see
I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that
The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe
Comments
People still expect them to reach 365 seats and crash the Northern Red wall! With a vote share that is less than 2017? Is this reality or just wishful thinking.
I can go on record, that the below marginals, in Labour's red wall, are still red, as of today. Despie all polls painting them a deep blue
Lincoln
Scunthorpe
Wrexham
Vale of Clwyd
Personally, I think the bigger issue likely to affect polling results is the larger than usual number of unknowns or may-switchers. These are harder to adjust for, and are disproportionately female.
Despite mentioning the constituency the latest Tory one says the election will be close, I presume nationally. They are not triumphant on leaflets at any rate.
The SNP coalition is simply to wide to hold forever and they already have been in power in scotland for 11 years, we don't know how their coalition would react if they lose power in the scottish assembly.
It's very difficult for a party to hold seats in both the Highlands and Glasgow, they are very different places, the SNP is already cracking along those fault lines.
BUT - even if Labour wither and die as a party, I'd be very surprised if this doesn't happen anyway. Current government policy is pushing us this way in cities but the market will ensure we get there within a decade. There won't be many combustion engines left in ten years - public or private. This is a great promise, since it is like promising that under a Labour government the sun will come up.
Not true.
There is a significant residual SLab vote in several of the seats the SCons are defending. Where these voters go could be decisive.
Ho ho.
Top tip: don’t believe everything you read on Twitter.
This feels like 1992 to me (having watched the coverage of it recently, I didn't watch it at the time)
The Conservative strategy is the reverse one.
It is clear you don’t know much about Scottish Labour. As we speak, their activists in Stirling are trying to persuade SLab supporters to lend their vote to the incumbent Tory.
And that is standard behaviour: they have been at it for years.
I am posting this without the detailed information in front of me, so feel free to correct!
Scottish independence will also be thoroughly positive for English public life too. Cathartic.
They've lost all sense. Neil Findlay's recent 'success' as Euro Elections guru will attest to that.
*innocent face*
But being serious I don't wish to find that out, but if it must happen I hope that prediction proves true.
The only situation in the last decade where one would have correctly predicted a national result from Sunderland would have been the EU referendum.
The only hope for the opposition is that their voters choose the right party in the right locations.
Last stats I saw showed only 49% of Scots Leave voters are Tory voters. Most of the other 51% wouldn’t touch the Tories with a shitty stick.
The Lib/Dems slumped in 1979 and seem to be doing the same now, there was also a lot of Scottish nationalism around too.
In 1992 of course the government was re-elected with a majority of 21 after polls indicated a hung Patliament.
Decline in Scotland-- SNP to benefit
Decline in London/ Remania-- LD to benefit
Decline in the North- BxP to benefit
Doesn't seem a direct transfer to Tories and a huge Tory majority, tbh
My prediction is Tories to be at 306-330, something like they were in 2010-2015
There is always a level of tribal hatred and political rivarly between rival left of centre parties, because they are fishing in the same pond.
The very old Socialist vs Communist rivarly is a historical example.
Shadsy’s 4/6 is good value.
PS what's with the avatar? I saw the STory leader on the TV for the first time the other day and my first thought was 'that's the guy who posts all the odds on PB'.
I know he's got a very comfortable majority, so it is an unlikely loss, but I thought he was a well respected constituency MP, despite party affiliations.
Did you like the previous 2 years of Hung Parliament ?
Do you think Boris is better than May ?
Are you in favour or against Brexit ?
Do you think that Labour forming a minority government would make things better ?
Do you think Corbyn will stop or not Brexit ?
Answering those 5 basic questions would give anyone a very good idea who you would vote for in this election.
Going into 2017 this was no longer the case. The SNP lost a chunk of Leavers.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/01/more-worrying-numbers-for-team-theresa-as-doubts-amongst-punters-rise/
Lincoln
Scunthorpe
Wrexham
Vale of clywd
-- Grimsby looks like it's falling. Many are well above the 5-10% swing margin.
No one want to debate Constituency wise or give any feedback. I have just got back from Lincoln, trust me, dunno who is winning but the Tory guy is a dkhead, with no popularity whatsoever
With the exception of malcolmg no one was mocking anyone for predicting a SCon surge in 2017.
https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1202969367887196165?s=09
"Well I can repeat what I’ve already said about this, many times, which is that, I know of no evidence of any successful interference by Russia in any democratic event in this country and on the report, we (are) obviously just complying with the normal timetable for releasing such things and I saw no reason to release it earlier just because there was an election going on."
Liar! He's not abiding by a "normal timetable". Here's how the chairman of the committee that wrote the report responded at the time to Johnson's decision not to publish it:
"The committee’s chairman, Dominic Grieve, called the decision 'jaw dropping' saying no reason for the refusal had been given."
From the same article:
"Fresh evidence has also emerged of attempts by the Kremlin to infiltrate the Conservatives by a senior Russian diplomat suspected of espionage, who spent five years in London cultivating leading Tories including Johnson himself. [emphasis added]
It can now be revealed that Sergey Nalobin – who once described the future prime minister as 'our good friend' – lives in a Moscow apartment block known as the 'FSB house' because it houses so many employees from the Kremlin’s main spy agency.
The committee’s report is based on analysis from Britain’s intelligence agencies, as well as third-party experts such as the former MI6 officer Christopher Steele."
Johnson was the only Foreign Secretary I know of whose access to secret intelligence "Downing Street" tried to restrict because he was viewed as a security risk. Source:
BBC:"Downing Street attempted to withhold sensitive intelligence from Boris Johnson when he became foreign secretary, the BBC has learned."
See also Martin Fletcher's piece in the New Statesman:
"The intelligence services are believed to be wary of sharing sensitive information with (Foreign Secretary Johnson)".
Toяies have got snow on their boots if you ask me!
That is why I ask the Boris vs May question to simplify things.
Conservative Remainers for instance would probably choose May, but they would need to answer the other questions for us to find how they would vote.
Some prospective, some leave areas had very little EE migrants. Specially some areas of Wales. After 6 years of severe austerity, Brexit was one way for the locals to show their two fingers to the Tory establishment in London and throw a flaming Molotov cocktail at them. The same Etonian Johnson thinks he can tap into now, must be hungover
Just for thought, most of these most likely voted leave, who do you think they would vote for now?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/50663879/general-election-2019-how-do-grimsby-s-food-bank-users-want-to-vote
What you mean is:
The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that leaving a set of treaty obligations comprising a customs union, a single market, and a set of supranational governing bodies with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country.
-When you dial down the dramatics, it's not baffling or sad, or particularly wonderful, it just is.
The BXP standing down will save a significant amount of Tort seats in the south and Scotland and maybe even a few in London as well.
Edinburgh has probably abandoned the Conservatives for good, but there's still a bit of an Orange vote for them in Ayrshire and Lanarkshire.
It's the 36-24=12 that implies a 12% voting intention lead which equals the top line figure.
There is no point to over analyze it, which ever way you crawl through the Mori tables the result is 10-12% Conservative lead, there is no inconsistency.
It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see
I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that
The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe