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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?
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http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp
Don't get carried away son, never in a million years.
Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1203301240161087488
This time I've been betting against us breaching the red wall as much as the constituency polling says and for the Lib Dems to underperform against the same polling. The national swing overrode them in 2015, I don't see what has changed since then.
The only sense I get this time is a resignation from Tory remainers and even some Labour remainers that a hung parliament isn't going to end well for the country. For the former it means loads ar coming home, for the latter it's difficult for me to say how it plays out.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1202915074970664960.
Mark Urban at the BBC: "The committee heard evidence from UK intelligence agencies such as GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 about Russian attempts to interfere in the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election."
Any guesses for which side Russia may have supported in the 2017 election? *innocent face*
Are you voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out or Lib Dem out of conviction?
Because the driver of SCon success has been Brexit and Sindy not Ruth Davidson.
If it was Ruth Davidson and not Brezit/Sindy they wouldn't have had their worst ever council elections on her watch. 2xWorst ever Euro elections on her watch and worst ever Westminster vote share on her watch.
This is of course bad news for both the Tories (now the party of Leave) and the Russians. Neither would enjoy being taken apart by the next official opposition (Labour) once the report comes before parliament.
In their position I would try to find some way of getting Russian fingerprints onto something Labour has done, to muddy the political water and make it difficult for Labour to use the report to score points off the government and tarnish the 2016 referendum result.
Whether the Russian intelligence service can come up with such a plan, I don’t know?
The Daily Mail is just such utter, utter bullshit though, it's not even good at hiding it.
I think the question is how best to make it live to PBers.
I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.
NorthofStoke said:
What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?
++++++
The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7766109/Momentum-breaking-Electoral-Commission-rules-poll-spending-targeting-youth-vote.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7766617/Dominatrix-Labour-councillor-suspended-anti-Semitic-slur.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7766007/Leaked-documents-used-Jeremy-Corbyn-leaked-Russia-Reddit-reveals.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7765745/MORE-Labour-four-day-week-chaos-Jeremy-Corbyn-contradicts-John-McDonnell-NHS-hours-cut.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7765691/Boris-Johnson-points-Jeremy-Corbyn-supported-IRA-FOUR-DECADES.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7766583/Labours-anti-Semitism-crisis-deepens-THIRTY-candidates-linked-claims-racism.html
He assumes that demographic change means you can do a straight 'leavers dying off faster and Remainers being able to vote faster'. It doesn't. We know that people change their political vies as they get older and that they generally become more conservative. There is every reason to believe that applies to Remain/Leave as well with an aging population becoming more Leave. As has been pointed out in the past many of those 18 year olds who voted Remain in 1975 then voted Leave in 2016. No one can really quantify this effect but it is clear it will mean his basic assumptions in his first claim are wrong.
The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland.
If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.
On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.
For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.
You can use a google sheets API for auto updates iirc. I did this a little while back, found it a right pita to work with, but then my coding skills are somewhat limited. Edit: think this was the guide I used https://erikrood.com/Posts/py_gsheets.html
Would be very interesting to see what you come up with though.
I don't believe Labour down south have really processed what this means, yet. Because it spells grave danger for them, especially if they pursue a socialist agenda.
The Mirror is shite too, this isn't a left-right issue.
A new Labour spending commitment?
None of the 23 have come from a metropolitan district i.e. None from the industrial West Midlands, South Yorks, West Yorks, Merseyside, Greater Manchester or Tyneside.
So for all the chatter about Labour's "Red Wall", at constituency level it has been remarkably underpolled. Compare and contrast with the 11 constituencies polled in London and the South East.
I wonder whether tonight's polling will continue to leave us in the dark?
A couple of concerns I have is if BBC change the format of their results page on the night and / or I get the ban hammer for automatically requesting pages.
*There is an entirely (afaik) additional figure paid to the European Commission sitting quietly in the DFID budget
*It is not for aid in EU countries, that is also there but listed seperately
*It is not discretionary, and therefore should be included in the roundup of our 'fees'.
*It was last reported (afaik) as £1bn in FY2014, after which it is hidden in the way DFID spending is reported. That is likely to have increased as the Commission budget has increased.
So it always makes me laugh when europhiles claim everyone would love the EU if only our politicians had been more positive about it over the years. The reality is they have massively covered for it.
I'd think Hugh Gaffney has more chance of holding in Coatbridge, mainly due to the face that the local SNP party is an ongoing binfire of strife. From what I can tell they haven't been campaigning in the seat, but heading to other marginals.
There is also the unknown factor of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where Neale Hanvey is no longer the SNP candidate, but most of the local activists are campaigning for him. Lesley Laird could well hold on.
A classy paper
Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.
Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”
allegedly eh?
But I do have info that Labour are throwing a lot in defending nearby Bolsover and have abandoned Ashfield, so I don't expect Labour to be trying to gain Mansfield.
There is no effective counter to this - least of all the power of reason.
It comes from a deep deep place that is impregnably defended against all comers.
Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
Suck it up
EDIT: Sorry when I replied it originally said Curtis not Dr Moderate. Yes Dr Moderate is wrong absolutely.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland.
The graph looks wrong, there was no poll putting the SNP on 37, and the trend continues after the polls finish...