Just caught up with Jezza and Queen's Speech. The man's a disgrace! How can he not know that Her Majesty's Christmas Address to the Nation is on at three? In our house we stand before the wireless saluting!
Page 48 of the Tory manifesto has had little coverage but shows what the Tories have in store as they try to grab more power for the executive .
This where I remind everyone that Labour's manifesto includes specific plans to extend the franchise to all residents of the UK, which could mean a net gain of millions of votes for Labour and would be the most extreme act of vote-rigging in generations.
That'll be 19 years of continuous tory government. Almost certainly not what Leibniz was contemplating when he coined the phrase, 'Die beste aller möglichen Welten.'
Only up to a point. The first five years were in a coalition, the next two years were with a tiny majority and the past two years, well, it strains the meaning of the term to refer to them as "government" at all.
So, if the polls are to be trusted, we'll have a stable Tory government from 13th of this month for the first time since 1992.
Just caught up with Jezza and Queen's Speech. The man's a disgrace! How can he not know that Her Majesty's Christmas Address to the Nation is on at three? In our house we stand before the wireless saluting!
His mistake was to lie, not to fail to watch the speech
She claimed: 'He might watch it on catch up, some of us do, some of us have dinner at different times. I don't necessarily think that means that he has lied.' Ms Rayner then vehemently insisted the Labour leader had actually said he catches up with the speech on Boxing Day morning, causing host Susanna Reid to challenge her.
But it's the kind of trivia that speaks to the character of the people involved. And a lot of monarchist, traditionalist, Christmas-loving Labour Leavers might just notice and think "What a bloody weirdo"...
There's a lot more to Christmas than the Queen's Speech. At least there is in our house!
Of course there is - I'm a 100% monarchist Tory, and I'm pretty sure I've never watched the Queen's Christmas Speech in my life. But then I'm not running for Prime Minister, nor lying about it on camera in such an awkward way that it continues to make national news for 48 hours...
Glad to hear it. I've actually watched it a couple of times. You're not missing much. It's like a review of the year but delivered with less comedic effect than Charlie Brooker's. He should have just said that he sometimes watches it but he's usually pretty busy with constituency duties on Christmas Day so doesn't usually manage to watch it in full. It is a small thing but is of course being used against him by the absurd Tory propaganda machine that passes for the free press in this country. Oh well, I guess we will just have to put up with a few hundred thousand more hungry children in the next five years.
"Constituency duties on Christmas Day" !?
He should have just said "No, I spend the day with my family and loved ones" - There's not a soul in the country who would criticise him for that!
Precisely. Hes a complete goober. He thinks every question might have hidden booby traps
Yeah I wonder how he could have got that impression. The press usually gives Labour leaders such an easy ride.
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
Great idea, they could also seek to appoint judges to investigate and criminalise rival politicians, the media, environmental campaigners and so on. Whats not to like?
If Boris sidelines Parliament and gives ultimate power to the executive then the UK's history as a democracy ends and we begin our first dictatorship in 350 years. The only laugh will be when the Tories lose a future election and then complain about the sweeping powers they granted to a Labour government.
oh what utter rot. Grow up.
It's not rot. We have a very fragile democracy compared to countries with a written constitution, checks and balances *and* a second chamber. Thatcher abolished the GLC by the stroke of a pen - well, a vote in parliament when she had a convenient majority of 144. Even Tories on the GLC and its predecessor the LCC thought it was outrageous. At times only the House of Lords stands between us and tyranny. Well, we have the courts but they depend on millionaires. There's no legal aid for 'constitutional' or 'public interest' litigation. Also Johnson wants to alter them.
Are you having a laugh?
No. A Conservative warned, decades ago, of the dangers of 'elective dictatorship'. It was a complaint not about strong government backed by a significant majority of the electorate, but the ability of UK governments without any such backing to nonetheless push through more or less whatever legislation they desire. Johnson seeks to tilt the UK constitution even further in the direction of the executive. As Cyclefree points out in her characteristically excellent article, dismantling checks and balances is not a conservative activity.
Page 48 of the Tory manifesto has had little coverage but shows what the Tories have in store as they try to grab more power for the executive .
It did feature on Newsnight, and I agree with @Cyclefree that it reads ominously autocratic.
Trump is at least constrained by the Judicial and Legislative branches of democracy and the Constitution, which is treated in the USA as Holy Writ. Britain Trump with a majority has far less restraint, particularly after Brexit.
Just caught up with Jezza and Queen's Speech. The man's a disgrace! How can he not know that Her Majesty's Christmas Address to the Nation is on at three? In our house we stand before the wireless saluting!
In our town, we wait for ye Towne Cryer to announce ye News in the Square in front of the Alderman's House and then we all throw our 'ats in the air and shout "Three cheers for Goode Queene Bess, God luv 'er"
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
NEW: Jeremy Corbyn embraced hate preacher Read Salah AFTER he was found guilty of the incredibly antisemitic ‘blood libel’ slur. Salah's followers went on to kill Jews in his name. Thread: https://t.co/hbIjgSJbxKhttps://t.co/l53AlcEELw
And to think back in the day, accepting a single invite for a dinner with a dodgy bloke on a yacht was enough to cause weeks of outrage and nearly finishing your political career.
In the same month...Guardian published an op-ed from the same bloke.
Britain's duty to the Palestinian people - Raed Salah
Is anyone surprised by this? He commemorated a dead Jew killer long after the man murdered Jewish athletes at the Olympics. Even if you were being extremely charitable to the man, the best case for him that can be squared with the facts is that he simply does not care about even the most vile anti-Semitism.
A bit like every voter who is even semi-informed that still votes Labour.
"Jew killer" is highly emotive language. It could be applied to Irgun who bombed the King David Hotel, killing 17 Jews.
They were killed because they happened to be in the hotel, not because they were Jews.
She claimed: 'He might watch it on catch up, some of us do, some of us have dinner at different times. I don't necessarily think that means that he has lied.' Ms Rayner then vehemently insisted the Labour leader had actually said he catches up with the speech on Boxing Day morning, causing host Susanna Reid to challenge her.
The best reason I saw was he watches it in the morning because he spends Christmas in Venezuela....
A minute of websearching unearths the information that he seems to have spent at least two of the last three Christmases in Mexico, where his wife is from and where 3pm British time is in the morning.
If true, this is an important observation. But it goes against the weight of polling, modelling and anecdotes. Given that, may I ask you for some evidence of your assertion please? If evidence is not available, then at least an explanation of your rationale.
No no no. Let's just accept it. The midlands NOT seduced by "Boris". What a turn up that would be.
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
Hopefully Brexit will happen, everyone will calm down a little and take a step back from messing with the constitution.
She claimed: 'He might watch it on catch up, some of us do, some of us have dinner at different times. I don't necessarily think that means that he has lied.' Ms Rayner then vehemently insisted the Labour leader had actually said he catches up with the speech on Boxing Day morning, causing host Susanna Reid to challenge her.
But it's the kind of trivia that speaks to the character of the people involved. And a lot of monarchist, traditionalist, Christmas-loving Labour Leavers might just notice and think "What a bloody weirdo"...
There's a lot more to Christmas than the Queen's Speech. At least there is in our house!
Of course there is - I'm a 100% monarchist Tory, and I'm pretty sure I've never watched the Queen's Christmas Speech in my life. But then I'm not running for Prime Minister, nor lying about it on camera in such an awkward way that it continues to make national news for 48 hours...
Glad to hear it. I've actually watched it a couple of times. You're not missing much. It's like a review of the year but delivered with less comedic effect than Charlie Brooker's. He should have just said that he sometimes watches it but he's usually pretty busy with constituency duties on Christmas Day so doesn't usually manage to watch it in full. It is a small thing but is of course being used against him by the absurd Tory propaganda machine that passes for the free press in this country. Oh well, I guess we will just have to put up with a few hundred thousand more hungry children in the next five years.
"Constituency duties on Christmas Day" !?
He should have just said "No, I spend the day with my family and loved ones" - There's not a soul in the country who would criticise him for that!
Precisely. Hes a complete goober. He thinks every question might have hidden booby traps
Yeah I wonder how he could have got that impression. The press usually gives Labour leaders such an easy ride.
Poor little martyrs all
You will recall how appalled David Cameron was when he experienced the business end of the right wing press for the first time in 2016.
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
It is part of their role to make decisions on constitutional matters. And you who interpreted their recent decision as 'political'.
With both parties pledging to recruit many tens of thousands of police, teachers and nurses, and the UK having low unemployment and demographics getting older and older with fewer people of working age, why is no-one linking this back to migration?
Given our demographics, maybe they are advertising the posts overseas....?
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
In my area which is a LD/Con marginal it looks as though the LDs have given up.on Sutton and Cheam and are pouring resource in to shore up Tom Brake. It's always close here ..will be the same.again next week
The Yougov MRP has the Cons with a 20% lead in Sutton and the LDs with a 1% lead in Carshalton. The Cons are already throwing the sink at Carshalton (see the Conservative volunteering website)
She claimed: 'He might watch it on catch up, some of us do, some of us have dinner at different times. I don't necessarily think that means that he has lied.' Ms Rayner then vehemently insisted the Labour leader had actually said he catches up with the speech on Boxing Day morning, causing host Susanna Reid to challenge her.
The best reason I saw was he watches it in the morning because he spends Christmas in Venezuela....
A minute of websearching unearths the information that he seems to have spent at least two of the last three Christmases in Mexico, where his wife is from and where 3pm British time is in the morning.
She claimed: 'He might watch it on catch up, some of us do, some of us have dinner at different times. I don't necessarily think that means that he has lied.' Ms Rayner then vehemently insisted the Labour leader had actually said he catches up with the speech on Boxing Day morning, causing host Susanna Reid to challenge her.
But it's the kind of trivia that speaks to the character of the people involved. And a lot of monarchist, traditionalist, Christmas-loving Labour Leavers might just notice and think "What a bloody weirdo"...
There's a lot more to Christmas than the Queen's Speech. At least there is in our house!
Of course there is - I'm a 100% monarchist Tory, and I'm pretty sure I've never watched the Queen's Christmas Speech in my life. But then I'm not running for Prime Minister, nor lying about it on camera in such an awkward way that it continues to make national news for 48 hours...
Glad to hear it. I've actually watched it a couple of times. You're not missing much. It's like a review of the year but delivered with less comedic effect than Charlie Brooker's. He should have just said that he sometimes watches it but he's usually pretty busy with constituency duties on Christmas Day so doesn't usually manage to watch it in full. It is a small thing but is of course being used against him by the absurd Tory propaganda machine that passes for the free press in this country. Oh well, I guess we will just have to put up with a few hundred thousand more hungry children in the next five years.
"Constituency duties on Christmas Day" !?
He should have just said "No, I spend the day with my family and loved ones" - There's not a soul in the country who would criticise him for that!
Precisely. Hes a complete goober. He thinks every question might have hidden booby traps
Yeah I wonder how he could have got that impression. The press usually gives Labour leaders such an easy ride.
Poor little martyrs all
You will recall how appalled David Cameron was when he experienced the business end of the right wing press for the first time in 2016.
I suspect the Queen's Speech will soon be replaced with the Boris Speech, with children encouraged to inform on their parents if they don't applaud for long enough.
She claimed: 'He might watch it on catch up, some of us do, some of us have dinner at different times. I don't necessarily think that means that he has lied.' Ms Rayner then vehemently insisted the Labour leader had actually said he catches up with the speech on Boxing Day morning, causing host Susanna Reid to challenge her.
The best reason I saw was he watches it in the morning because he spends Christmas in Venezuela....
A minute of websearching unearths the information that he seems to have spent at least two of the last three Christmases in Mexico, where his wife is from and where 3pm British time is in the morning.
Hilarious.
When in a hole, best to stop digging....
It's really quite hilarious as you say. Let her carry on with it!
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
Wait, I thought we were told that being seen in the same room as Trump would doom Boris? Don't tell me that wasn't true?!
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
Hopefully Brexit will happen, everyone will calm down a little and take a step back from messing with the constitution.
What a lot of constitutional meddling we’ve had starting with Blair, with quite severe consequences.
Crippling parliamentary deadlock caused by FTPA, devolution feeding rather than satiating the independence monkey, politicisation of the judiciary following the half cocked replacement of the law lords with the Supreme Court...
The Box is now halfway open. You either need to slam it shut again or take off the lid come what may.
I placed a sizeable bet on LibDems to win Portsmouth South at 15/8. Today I can get 33/1. Has anyone got a worse value bet then mine or indeed match my idiocy in any conceivable way?
I famously had £500 quid on May taking us out of the EU by the end of March. Whilst it was an insurance bet (see previous posts and articles) I genuinely thought she'd do it.
From my recollection, the reason this was such a bad bet is because of when it was placed, which was very shortly after it became clear that this wouldn't happen. Had you made the best a couple of months earlier, it would have been at least reasonable
I suspect the Queen's Speech will soon be replaced with the Boris Speech, with children encouraged to inform on their parents if they don't applaud for long enough.
JC says he does not watch the Queen's Speech. "Ooo that's an unforced error. WWC leavers will hate that. Braindead politics from Magic Grandpa."
JC says he does watch it. "Ha ha ha. As if. He can't even lie properly. Not a patch on Boris."
Bullshit...if he said spend the day busy with friends and family, so don't really watch any tv, the vast majority of the population would completely relate to that. If the Daily Rant attacked him on saying that, I think it would only have helped him...in the way The Sun going OTT on Brown hand written notes backfired.
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
It is part of their role to make decisions on constitutional matters. And you who interpreted their recent decision as 'political'.
And if they continue to make left liberal anti Brexit decisions a conservative PM with a clear majority will get his Lord Chancellor to start replacing them with conservative judges
With both parties pledging to recruit many tens of thousands of police, teachers and nurses, and the UK having low unemployment and demographics getting older and older with fewer people of working age, why is no-one linking this back to migration?
For Tories - Immigration = Cheap labour and means to polarise the WWC For Labour- Immigration = Votes and Cheap labour
Tories are planning mass migration, to fill the above jobs. Not from Europe, but from India/ Pakistan and Nigeria. Based on some dubious point based system, courtesy of Priti Patel. Who wants only to attract the best and where visas will be fast trackd within 2 weeks. Priti's parents were small time shopkeepers and would not have qualified under her ' posh' scheme. So she does accepting, that's she is a product of immigrants, the type the Tories would not let in?
Is anyone surprised by this? He commemorated a dead Jew killer long after the man murdered Jewish athletes at the Olympics. Even if you were being extremely charitable to the man, the best case for him that can be squared with the facts is that he simply does not care about even the most vile anti-Semitism.
A bit like every voter who is even semi-informed that still votes Labour.
Am I the only one here thinking of throwing a couple of bags of sand at that price, having pretty much stayed out of the betting until now?
It's buying money. Now is the time. It will be 1.2 on eve of poll.
That’s kinda my thinking.
I think today is going to be dominated by antisemitism, and tomorrow the debate between Johnson and Corbyn, following which the Tories are going to start throwing millions at the short campaign. Also the MRP poll coming tomorrow maybe.
IMO that price will get shorter before it gets longer, I’ll think I’ll start dripping money into the 1.38 and see what happens.
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
The interesting takeaway is that it suggests they think Trump is weak, and unlikely to be around much longer. They certainly wouldn't take liberties of that kind with a normal US President, even if they didn't care much for him.
I suspect the Queen's Speech will soon be replaced with the Boris Speech, with children encouraged to inform on their parents if they don't applaud for long enough.
Absurd idea. Alexa will be monitoring applause length and hence no need for the kids to get involved.
With both parties pledging to recruit many tens of thousands of police, teachers and nurses, and the UK having low unemployment and demographics getting older and older with fewer people of working age, why is no-one linking this back to migration?
For Tories - Immigration = Cheap labour and means to polarise the WWC For Labour- Immigration = Votes and Cheap labour
Tories are planning mass migration, to fill the above jobs. Not from Europe, but from India/ Pakistan and Nigeria. Based on some dubious point based system, courtesy of Priti Patel. Who wants only to attract the best and where visas will be fast trackd within 2 weeks. Priti's parents were small time shopkeepers and would not have qualified under her ' posh' scheme. So she does accepting, that's she is a product of immigrants, the type the Tories would not let in?
No, migrsnts from India, Pakustan and Nigeria previously excluded in favour of those from Europe will now be treated on level terms based on the skills they bring
Am I the only one here thinking of throwing a couple of bags of sand at that price, having pretty much stayed out of the betting until now?
It's buying money. Now is the time. It will be 1.2 on eve of poll.
That’s kinda my thinking.
I think today is going to be dominated by antisemitism, and tomorrow the debate between Johnson and Corbyn, following which the Tories are going to start throwing millions at the short campaign. Also the MRP poll coming tomorrow maybe.
IMO that price will get shorter before it gets longer, I’ll think I’ll start dripping money into the 1.38 and see what happens.
My advice would be not to chase the market.
But, if you independently come to your own view on its value, then do what you think is best.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
The interesting takeaway is that it suggests they think Trump is weak, and unlikely to be around much longer. They certainly wouldn't take liberties of that kind with a normal US President, even if they didn't care much for him.
Interesting observation. In contrast, Macron especially couldn't roll out the red carpet fast enough when Trump got elected. He clearly thinks now no chance I have to worry about another 4 years of him now.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
With both parties pledging to recruit many tens of thousands of police, teachers and nurses, and the UK having low unemployment and demographics getting older and older with fewer people of working age, why is no-one linking this back to migration?
For Tories - Immigration = Cheap labour and means to polarise the WWC For Labour- Immigration = Votes and Cheap labour
Tories are planning mass migration, to fill the above jobs. Not from Europe, but from India/ Pakistan and Nigeria. Based on some dubious point based system, courtesy of Priti Patel. Who wants only to attract the best and where visas will be fast trackd within 2 weeks. Priti's parents were small time shopkeepers and would not have qualified under her ' posh' scheme. So she does accepting, that's she is a product of immigrants, the type the Tories would not let in?
I think Priti's parents were British Citizens from Kenya.
I remember the arrival of the Ugandan Asians in the early Seventies. There were many opposed at the time, but Ted Heath recognised their right to come here as British citizens. While the Ugandans were pretty poorly treated, there were significant other East African Asian communities that came the same way.
The tories responded very aggressively and petulantly in response to court decisions. The bland vagueness of the manifesto on relationship between courts and parliament and government therefore worry me a lot, as their behaviour suggests they will react in vindictive short term fashion.
The Tory Right will be jubilant and unstoppable if they triumph, rabid for revenge. The legal system will be first on the list for 'reform' (i.e. subject to their complete control). It's gonna get bloody.
and all done with a 40% share of the votes, isn't "democracy" wonderful!
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
The interesting takeaway is that it suggests they think Trump is weak, and unlikely to be around much longer. They certainly wouldn't take liberties of that kind with a normal US President, even if they didn't care much for him.
Interesting observation. In contrast, Macron especially couldn't roll out the red carpet fast enough when Trump got elected. He clearly thinks now no chance I have to worry about another 4 years of him now.
Boris sensibly has kept largely in with Trump given the Republican Senate will not convict Trump and Trump has a good chance of beating Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, one of whom will likely be Democratic nominee.
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than a Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
Hopefully Brexit will happen, everyone will calm down a little and take a step back from messing with the constitution.
What a lot of constitutional meddling we’ve had starting with Blair, with quite severe consequences.
Crippling parliamentary deadlock caused by FTPA, devolution feeding rather than satiating the independence monkey, politicisation of the judiciary following the half cocked replacement of the law lords with the Supreme Court...
The Box is now halfway open. You either need to slam it shut again or take off the lid come what may.
I think the FTPA has to go, it’s been clearly demonstrated to be not fit for purpose in any situation other than the one it was designed for by Nick Clegg.
The rest needs some careful and considered thought rather than knee-jerk reaction, as you say almost every recent change has made things demonstrably worse.
If we had gone into the backstop could we unilaterally set our own customs rules? If we had gone into the backstop could we unilaterally end the role of the ECJ? If we had gone into the backstop could we unilaterally stop the European Parliament passing laws that became our laws.
All of those were what we argued over and what I voted for when I voted for Brexit.
Which is why you were not supportive of the May deal. We get that. All you need to do to be acquitted of the charge of zealotry is refrain from stating that only your preferred version of Brexit is Brexit. It's just a little thing and the reward - your acquittal - is surely worth it.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
NEW: Jeremy Corbyn embraced hate preacher Read Salah AFTER he was found guilty of the incredibly antisemitic ‘blood libel’ slur. Salah's followers went on to kill Jews in his name. Thread: https://t.co/hbIjgSJbxKhttps://t.co/l53AlcEELw
And to think back in the day, accepting a single invite for a dinner with a dodgy bloke on a yacht was enough to cause weeks of outrage and nearly finishing your political career.
In the same month...Guardian published an op-ed from the same bloke.
Britain's duty to the Palestinian people - Raed Salah
Is anyone surprised by this? He commemorated a dead Jew killer long after the man murdered Jewish athletes at the Olympics. Even if you were being extremely charitable to the man, the best case for him that can be squared with the facts is that he simply does not care about even the most vile anti-Semitism.
A bit like every voter who is even semi-informed that still votes Labour.
"Jew killer" is highly emotive language. It could be applied to Irgun who bombed the King David Hotel, killing 17 Jews.
They were killed because they happened to be in the hotel, not because they were Jews.
There is a difference, you know.
Yes there is an enormous difference. But the athletes in Munich weren't killed because they were Jews either. Did you know that the commander of the Black September unit that carried out the action, Luttif Afif, was the son of a Jewish mother? He was therefore Jewish by the religious definition, although I don't know how he saw himself. (His father was Christian.) That had nothing to do with why German police killed him.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
With both parties pledging to recruit many tens of thousands of police, teachers and nurses, and the UK having low unemployment and demographics getting older and older with fewer people of working age, why is no-one linking this back to migration?
Given our demographics, maybe they are advertising the posts overseas....?
They ARE advertising abroad. From nurses to doctors and many more areas. Visas will be fast tracked, under two weeks, as per Priti Patel. The only ones willing to come, are from the English speaking commonwealth countries, such as Pakistan and Nigeria. Due to a booming Indian economy and a falling pound, even Indian docs(traditional source) are no longer interested. So brexit is a choice between European and commonwealth immigration !! Either way immigration is going to continue unabated. Very smart move by the Tories. 10 years of austerity and then win another 5 years on Brexit. Then may be in 2024 win another election on some war? Such as Falklands?People can't seem to look beoynd the smoke and mirrors. Curently in the North it's Brexit brexit and get rid of those Fockingg Forgeineerss
Bullshit...if he said spend the day busy with friends and family, so don't really watch any tv, the vast majority of the population would completely relate to that. If the Daily Rant attacked him on saying that, I think it would only have helped him...in the way The Sun going OTT on Brown hand written notes backfired.
I'm not talking about the vast majority of the population. I'm talking about the Tory spinosphere.
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
NEW: Jeremy Corbyn embraced hate preacher Read Salah AFTER he was found guilty of the incredibly antisemitic ‘blood libel’ slur. Salah's followers went on to kill Jews in his name. Thread: https://t.co/hbIjgSJbxKhttps://t.co/l53AlcEELw
And to think back in the day, accepting a single invite for a dinner with a dodgy bloke on a yacht was enough to cause weeks of outrage and nearly finishing your political career.
In the same month...Guardian published an op-ed from the same bloke.
Britain's duty to the Palestinian people - Raed Salah
Is anyone surprised by this? He commemorated a dead Jew killer long after the man murdered Jewish athletes at the Olympics. Even if you were being extremely charitable to the man, the best case for him that can be squared with the facts is that he simply does not care about even the most vile anti-Semitism.
A bit like every voter who is even semi-informed that still votes Labour.
"Jew killer" is highly emotive language. It could be applied to Irgun who bombed the King David Hotel, killing 17 Jews.
They were killed because they happened to be in the hotel, not because they were Jews.
There is a difference, you know.
Yes there is an enormous difference. But the athletes in Munich weren't killed because they were Jews either. Did you know that the commander of the Black September unit that carried out the action, Luttif Afif, was the son of a Jewish mother? He was therefore Jewish by the religious definition, although I don't know how he saw himself. (His father was Christian.) That had nothing to do with why German police killed him.
I bloody love it when people trying to explain away anti-semitic acts get all tricksy.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than a Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I expect Labour to hold Canterbury even if the Tories win a majority overall due to the student vote
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
Do you have ANY inkling as to how repulsive and weasly your posts increasingly sound?
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
My point wasn't Jezza's anti-semitism, my point was that there appears to be a very different standard. If he had questioned trans-rights to the extent he had got caught up in anti-semitism stuff, he would be dead to them.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
Why is there a big disparity in odds between Wakefield and Penistone & Stocksbridge
Almost identical results from the MRP poll. Rated at 94/95% of Con win. Penistone is 1.14 on Betfair, Wakefield is 1.3
Why have the markets disagreed?
Dunno, Bet365 have Inverclyde at 2-9 for the SNP though, chance they lose it looks at least less than 10% judging by the other results. Scottish Labour doesn't look to be a horse moving forward at any rate.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
I've no idea what the Jewish community seems to think apart from worrying about Jeremy Corbyn. Which is a real concern and shared by most right-thinking (small r) people. I'm not sure that translates into a fear of the future in the UK.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
I've no idea what the Jewish community seems to think apart from worrying about Jeremy Corbyn. Which is a real concern and shared by most right-thinking person (small r). I'm not sure that translates into a fear of the future in the UK.
Listen to the podcast by well respected NYT journalist, who is very much of the left. She clearly goes through the antisemitism of the right, left and Islamic in both US and across Western Europe.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
So many people who will always vote Corbyn will still always vote Corbyn? I'm sure the MRP has factored that one in, same reason it doesn't have Labour winning Finchley & Golders Green.
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
My point wasn't Jezza's anti-semitism, my point was that there appears to be a very different standard. If he had questioned trans-rights to the extent he had got caught up in anti-semitism stuff, he would be dead to them.
Have you any polling evidence to suggest that Trans rights have that level of support amongst students?
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
So many people who will always vote Corbyn will still always vote Corbyn? I'm sure the MRP has factored that one in, same reason it doesn't have Labour winning Finchley & Golders Green.
I thought MRP couldn’t account for tactical voting?
It was well over 90% Islamic voters voting Labour in 2017 but even 5% more is potentially a lot of people. Islam is a huge vote potentially.
You remind me of a certain speech given by Hitler introducing the Enabling Act of March 1933. “The authority and the fulfilment of the tasks would suffer, however, were doubts in the stability of the new regime to arise in the Volk. The Reich Government views a further session of the Reichstag as an impossibility under the present condition of a far-reaching state of excitation in the nation.” Who knows what it may take to enable the Brexit that Brexiteers want? Perhaps we should look forward to “The implementation of Brexit and the Government’s intended trading deals would be in peril should they be opposed. The people might protest. Thus the Government will view any vote of no confidence in it as of no consequence.”
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
and it is so going to help the US trade deal that the Brexiteers are banking on.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
I've no idea what the Jewish community seems to think apart from worrying about Jeremy Corbyn. Which is a real concern and shared by most right-thinking person (small r). I'm not sure that translates into a fear of the future in the UK.
Listen to the podcast by well respected NYT journalist, who is very much of the left. She clearly goes through the antisemitism of the right, left and Islamic in both US and across Western Europe.
I am aware of all the flavours of anti-semitism; it has been going on now for some two thousand years plus. I'm not saying we're at the end of history but I don't think Jews in the UK need to worry about their future here. Whatever a respected NYT journalist of the left thinks.
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
Hopefully Brexit will happen, everyone will calm down a little and take a step back from messing with the constitution.
What a lot of constitutional meddling we’ve had starting with Blair, with quite severe consequences.
Crippling parliamentary deadlock caused by FTPA, devolution feeding rather than satiating the independence monkey, politicisation of the judiciary following the half cocked replacement of the law lords with the Supreme Court...
The Box is now halfway open. You either need to slam it shut again or take off the lid come what may.
"Crippling parliamentary deadlock caused by FTPA" Many other countries have fixed periods between elections, do they all suffer deadlock?
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
She claimed: 'He might watch it on catch up, some of us do, some of us have dinner at different times. I don't necessarily think that means that he has lied.' Ms Rayner then vehemently insisted the Labour leader had actually said he catches up with the speech on Boxing Day morning, causing host Susanna Reid to challenge her.
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than a Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I expect Labour to hold Canterbury even if the Tories win a majority overall due to the student vote
Canterbury, Portsmouth South and Reading East are all Labour holds with the YouGov MRP survey despite being Labour gains in 2017. The Tories winning any of them would be a bonus since they can get a 68 seat majority without them according to the study.
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
JC says he does not watch the Queen's Speech. "Ooo that's an unforced error. WWC leavers will hate that. Braindead politics from Magic Grandpa."
JC says he does watch it. "Ha ha ha. As if. He can't even lie properly. Not a patch on Boris."
He lied. It is arguably the simplest political point, deeply unimportant as it is, to be brought up in the campaign.
Not 100% surprised you don't get it.
It's funny how it is these sorts of questions that catch politicians out. With policy questions, the politicians have already prepared their answers and most of the time you know what they are going to say (which explains why quite often the debates are dull). No-one is going to prepare or focus group questions like what they are doing for Christmas though, which is why the answers sometimes stick.
What do people remember about May last time around? - strong and stable and running through the wheat field.
Why is there a big disparity in odds between Wakefield and Penistone & Stocksbridge
Almost identical results from the MRP poll. Rated at 94/95% of Con win. Penistone is 1.14 on Betfair, Wakefield is 1.3
Why have the markets disagreed?
Maybe because the original Tory candidate in Wakefield had to withdraw at the last minute due to alleged social media posts. Never good for that to happen close to polling day. Also Mary Creagh is a relatively popular MP. On the other hand in Penistone the Labour MP Angela Smith has moved to Altrincham and Sale West.
Yay! ITV are reprising the very successful George and Ed show on election night. Particularly pleasing since Sky have chosen to make themselves unwatchable with the poison dwarf.
I believe Ruth is doing a guest appearance as well.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Not a single seat in which Labour is favourite to make a gain. Remarkable.
I pointed out three weeks ago that Ladbrokes have a market on this: "Labour To Gain No Individual Seat Not Won In 2017" priced at 6/4. The price is still 6/4 if anyone`s interested.
Comments
So, if the polls are to be trusted, we'll have a stable Tory government from 13th of this month for the first time since 1992.
A Conservative warned, decades ago, of the dangers of 'elective dictatorship'.
It was a complaint not about strong government backed by a significant majority of the electorate, but the ability of UK governments without any such backing to nonetheless push through more or less whatever legislation they desire. Johnson seeks to tilt the UK constitution even further in the direction of the executive.
As Cyclefree points out in her characteristically excellent article, dismantling checks and balances is not a conservative activity.
This piece expands on something that has been troubling me - the alarming emptiness of the Tory manifesto.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/the-tories-do-have-policies-they-just-dont-want-you-to-know-what-they-are
Trump is at least constrained by the Judicial and Legislative branches of democracy and the Constitution, which is treated in the USA as Holy Writ. Britain Trump with a majority has far less restraint, particularly after Brexit.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1202108607589945344?s=19
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
https://yg-infographics-data.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ZAfbtHgj42wx4reHnaMtbBamoKdMxkFMpz4gnWMjiZCUAxDX66MsCB38K/2019_data/MRP_Tables_2019_Election_Public_Release.pdf
There is a difference, you know.
What is it with MEPs elected under the Farage banner? How many actually complete their term in office still members of his party?
And you who interpreted their recent decision as 'political'.
When in a hole, best to stop digging....
Crippling parliamentary deadlock caused by FTPA, devolution feeding rather than satiating the independence monkey, politicisation of the judiciary following the half cocked replacement of the law lords with the Supreme Court...
The Box is now halfway open. You either need to slam it shut again or take off the lid come what may.
JC says he does watch it. "Ha ha ha. As if. He can't even lie properly. Not a patch on Boris."
For Labour- Immigration = Votes and Cheap labour
Tories are planning mass migration, to fill the above jobs. Not from Europe, but from India/ Pakistan and Nigeria. Based on some dubious point based system, courtesy of Priti Patel. Who wants only to attract the best and where visas will be fast trackd within 2 weeks.
Priti's parents were small time shopkeepers and would not have qualified under her ' posh' scheme. So she does accepting, that's she is a product of immigrants, the type the Tories would not let in?
Not 100% surprised you don't get it.
I think today is going to be dominated by antisemitism, and tomorrow the debate between Johnson and Corbyn, following which the Tories are going to start throwing millions at the short campaign. Also the MRP poll coming tomorrow maybe.
IMO that price will get shorter before it gets longer, I’ll think I’ll start dripping money into the 1.38 and see what happens.
I'd be amazed if everyone else here did not also do so.
But, if you independently come to your own view on its value, then do what you think is best.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1202577109203468294?s=20
Tories holding Ludlow 60%
North Herefordshire 59%
S. Herefordshire 61%.
Leominster, i.e. N. Herefordshire boundaries more or less, was last held by a different party in 1906.
I remember the arrival of the Ugandan Asians in the early Seventies. There were many opposed at the time, but Ted Heath recognised their right to come here as British citizens. While the Ugandans were pretty poorly treated, there were significant other East African Asian communities that came the same way.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than a Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
The rest needs some careful and considered thought rather than knee-jerk reaction, as you say almost every recent change has made things demonstrably worse.
The Gains and Losses table for Cons (and other parties) is on page 36 onwards.
That seems a tad overblown. Even for commie students.
https://samharris.org/podcasts/173-anti-semitism-discontents/
One could get Tory odds of 1.07 in Ludlow recently = excellent value if you have the capital to spare.
So brexit is a choice between European and commonwealth immigration !! Either way immigration is going to continue unabated.
Very smart move by the Tories. 10 years of austerity and then win another 5 years on Brexit. Then may be in 2024 win another election on some war? Such as Falklands?People can't seem to look beoynd the smoke and mirrors. Curently in the North it's Brexit brexit and get rid of those Fockingg Forgeineerss
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
Almost identical results from the MRP poll. Rated at 94/95% of Con win.
Penistone is 1.14 on Betfair, Wakefield is 1.3
Why have the markets disagreed?
Why do you suppose those athletes were killed?
Arguably of less import than "Boris" saying - oh let's see now - so many to choose from ...
Who are you voting for btw?
It was well over 90% Islamic voters voting Labour in 2017 but even 5% more is potentially a lot of people. Islam is a huge vote potentially.
“The authority and the fulfilment of the tasks would suffer, however, were doubts in the stability of the new regime to arise in the Volk. The Reich Government views a further session of the Reichstag as an impossibility under the present condition of a far-reaching state of excitation in the nation.”
Who knows what it may take to enable the Brexit that Brexiteers want?
Perhaps we should look forward to
“The implementation of Brexit and the Government’s intended trading deals would be in peril should they be opposed. The people might protest. Thus the Government will view any vote of no confidence in it as of no consequence.”
Many other countries have fixed periods between elections, do they all suffer deadlock?
https://order-order.com/2019/12/05/corbynistas-react-think-corbyns-anti-semitism-said-boris/
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
What do people remember about May last time around? - strong and stable and running through the wheat field.
I believe Ruth is doing a guest appearance as well.