When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
This actually became scary as the video went on. "Well the Jews do this every time, every election the Jews do this"
Wow.
That was horrific. The woman who reacts to him saying 'are you concerned that 50% of Jews are thinking of leaving the country' she says 'well where would they go, Palestine? Jews are just scared of Corbyn because they have off shore accounts and don't want to pay tax'
What the actual f**k ?
The 'Palestine' comment is revealing - presumably the country she means is the one most people referto as 'Israel', rather than meaning the West Bank or Gaza Strip - but she can't bring herself to say the word 'Israel'. Reminiscent of the linguistic gymnastics used by Sinn Fein referring to 'The North of Ireland' rather than admit the existence of Northern Ireland.
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If they've sampled it correctly the error bounds will be +/- 5%. Which gives Labour a max of 34% here and the Tories a minimum of 39%. Also refused/don't know excluded and they might help Labour out a touch.
But yes it seems a good poll for the blues.
In the north, the real tussle is between Austerity and Brexit. A lot of WWC are miffed at their MP voting against brexit in Parliament. Some have even labelled them traitors, At the same time, there is a lot of anger after nearly a decade of austerity. Which the Tories have be associated with. So it won't be an easy choice for them. I think the Tories, like in 2917, should think twice, before making assumptions. Corby was there in 2017 also, when they got 40+% votes. What has changed now wrt JC? His glasses??
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
We will see - but I do expect this effect in at least some voters. Whether it makes an actual impact, nobody knows.
As a northerner myself I am DEAD at this anecdote. It’s an absolute hoot. Keep them coming.
We are, of course, all the same - with our flat caps and our whippets, guilted against voting Tory from beyond the grace by our dear socialist fathers.
I was only repeating an anecdote. No worries you think something else.
Here's an entertaining tidbit to look for on election night. With the BXP in utter freefall apparently might we see in one of the constituencies where both stand Pat Mountains UKIP outpoll Nigel Farages BXP?
Betting: you can still get 1.22 on BFE no seats for BXP or 1.03 fewer than ten seats.
... Continuation of trend whereby boundary unfairness to Con is actually reducing - fastest growing area of country is London Labour seats.
Yes, with the combination of shifts in population and shifts in the support bases of the two main parties, it might be the case that the unfair boundaries effect largely disappears in this election, or even goes into reverse. It will be interesting to see the analysis once we have the results.
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
They ALL walked past their Dad's grave on the way to vote?
No sorry I meant none of them could vote Tory. For the particular person that was why
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
They ALL walked past their Dad's grave on the way to vote?
Could be a good last minute tactic for Labour on the day, block some roads and put up signs saying Detour going past the local cemetery to the polling booth
Do those registered voters refer to Labour or an electorate as a whole? They surely don’t know how people will vote. I don’t see how turnout going down as a whole really benefits one side or the other, can somebody explain?
You really are being a bit silly now. Is it because the ascent of "Boris" has left you politically homeless? On the streets as it were.
The ascent of Boris irritated the fuck out of me but whenever I ponder my malaise I glance briefly at Jezza and think "anyone but him". And voila, doubts evaporate.
There must be, hopefully, millions who've been on a similar journey.
You really are being a bit silly now. Is it because the ascent of "Boris" has left you politically homeless? On the streets as it were.
The ascent of Boris irritated the fuck out of me but whenever I ponder my malaise I glance briefly at Jezza and think "anyone but him". And voila, doubts evaporate.
There must be, hopefully, millions who've been on a similar journey.
And some of them must be gagging for a sensible, centre left alternative promoted by the Labour Party.
Do those registered voters refer to Labour or an electorate as a whole? They surely don’t know how people will vote. I don’t see how turnout going down as a whole really benefits one side or the other, can somebody explain?
They refer to the electorate as a whole. They suggest that the contention that 'there is a big increase in young voters registering at the last minute compared to 2017' is not true.
... Continuation of trend whereby boundary unfairness to Con is actually reducing - fastest growing area of country is London Labour seats.
Yes, with the combination of shifts in population and shifts in the support bases of the two main parties, it might be the case that the unfair boundaries effect largely disappears in this election, or even goes into reverse. It will be interesting to see the analysis once we have the results.
Yes - it's another myth embedded in some people's brains (bit like everyone thinking YouGov were issuing an MRP yesterday).
Maximum boundary unfairness was 2005 GE - then new boundaries at 2010 GE helped (albeit based on 2000 Electoral register) and now in the last 15 years there has been huge population growth in Labour seats in Inner London and also the likes of Manchester etc.
Boundaries are still a bit unfair to Con but it's now really only very marginal.
George Zimmerman, who shot dead unarmed black teenager Trayvon Martin in 2012, is suing his family, their attorney, the US state and others for around $100m (£77m).
Do those registered voters refer to Labour or an electorate as a whole? They surely don’t know how people will vote. I don’t see how turnout going down as a whole really benefits one side or the other, can somebody explain?
They refer to the electorate as a whole. They suggest that the contention that 'there is a big increase in young voters registering at the last minute compared to 2017' is not true.
You mean all that hype about registration figures was for naught?
Does anyone use Smarkets? I`ve been picking up some nice odds there on constituencies, albeit small stakes only. Just got over 6/4 on Tories in West Bromwich East.
Mr ReggieCide, Have a prize for a ludicrously childish post, that no doubt, in a very childish way, was meant as a repost to the previous poster's very logical position. I guess you are one of the gullible many that have been fooled by the charlatan, and one can easily see why lol.
Is that a general criticism or specific? Not that I care from a nincompoop.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
We know there are anti-Semitic people at left wing protests. It's hardly surprising the videomaker was able to find some.
This isn't unique to the left though, it would be the case if you went to a Tory party conference also. Indeed when polled, Tory supporters are more likely to express anti Semitic statements.
Do you have any evidence to back that up?
Google channel 4 anti semitism fact check polling, should be the first thing that comes up.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
Christ. It's right there in front of your eyes. And still Labourites dissemble and deny.
Depressing.
Idiot. If I was Labour would I say Corbyn is vile. This is why I also despise Tories - no sense.
Fair enough. If you're not Labour I withdraw the allegation and apologise. But you are still a blinkered fool if you refuse to see what it there in plain sight.
I also withdraw the idiot, but you are similarly a blinkered fool if you do not factor in the Guido source with any material. The man makes Trump look like a fount of decency.
His betting tip - or at least, hint - in 2017 was the most valuable of the campaign.
See "Let`s Talk Landslides", written as a header for us 23rd November.
It concluded:
"The markets for the number of Con seats or size of majority look quite under-developed but as they come on streeam, I expect the value to be to go high on Con. I think Johnson could well end up sitting pretty with the biggest Tory majority since at least 1983."
Thanks. Betting on that is like catastrophe insurance.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
Goodness, you are clutching at straws. These were real people. Yes, no one likes being tricked, but some of the comments were pretty shocking. Anti-semitism is a cancer, and that cancer is clearly flourishing in the heart of the Labour left.
Have you ever come across Dipso Staines? He is the worst type of sub-Trump, Putin -run scum. It may be genuine, but without independent verification I would never ascribe any credibility to anything from his grubby hands.
That seems a tad overblown. Even for commie students.
Do you know many students? It looks plausible to me (sand fits with the general pattern that highly-educasted people tend to vote Labour - it's a university thing, not just a student thing, I suspect though you'd be comforted if you saw the certainty to vote.
Yes, my nephews. And I was one myself 15 years ago.
I’m not denying students favour Labour, but I’d expect 50-60% in line with other polls.
Over 70% seems absolutely huge to me, and the Tory/LD share way lower than captured elsewhere, and I’d be very surprised if they were that monolithic in the current climate for Labour.
They certainly weren’t in my day.
It's not huge given that in 2017 an estimated 61.5% of voters under 40 (source) voted Labour. 70% Labour among u40 graduates and undergraduates and 50% among other u40s wouldn't be surprising.
That shows 66% of 18-19 yr olds and 62% of 20-24 yr olds voting Labour off a national base of 40%.
This seems to show 71% of all students (almost all will be under 25) off a 34-35% base (max).
Have young people really further moved heavily towards Labour this time, over 2017?
I’m not so sure. Cyclefree’s anecdotes about her children bear this up too.
Around 30% of 18 year olds apply for university, and around 50% of youngsters enter higher education before they are 30. Labour running at 70%-75% among undergraduates both in 2017 and now wouldn't be surprising. There's a huge age divide in Labour/Tory. Labour need to convey that social provision for the young (university tuition) and over-50s (main users of the NHS) comes as a bundle. Whether they can is another matter.
Read the piece on the sub-sample further up the thread.
I’m afraid I find much of the rest of your post a non-sequitur: they’re Labour because they’re young isn’t sufficient to explain it, and the percentages you cite aren’t correct either.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
This is the tag line for anti-Semitism
I see you are taking a lesson from Guido - accusing anyone questioning his methods of antisemitism. You really are a digusting piece of low life. I do not defend Labour (I am not a supporter and have called them vile) and do not doubt their antisemitism, but you need to learn the difference between evidence from a reliable source and Guido. But I guess you do not care because you are mno better than Guido.
“And what on earth is wrong with asking people who suffer from gender dysphoria - for whom I have the utmost sympathy - to undergo a medical diagnosis before changing their gender? What, exactly, is the problem with this?”
If so, the answer is to increase funding to the level of need and improve education not allow a legal change which risks being seriously detrimental to women and their hard-won rights.
I think it will be seriously detrimental to all concerned.
The spectre of a prominent individual in the movement having taken their children abroad for illegal (in the UK) surgery at ages below 16, and then subsequently using the police as a tool to silence critical commentary, is not reassuring.
The significant black African / black Caribbean delta there for the Tories is interesting.
Probably a function of age (first generation Windrush now elderly and better distributed around the UK) whereas recent migrants from Africa likely to be younger and have less emotional affinity with Britain, but hard to be certain.
The best article I have read on this site, and the clearest explanation I have seen for why today's Conservative Party is nothing to do with the Conservative Party of the past that we could respect even if we voted for others. The mutterings of Johnson and his band of cronies reminds me far more of Victor Orban than of serious Conservative politicians, including Thatcher and Major.
That is just ridiculous
No. It is ridiculous to believe that the likes of Baker and Francois would have ever got onto the candidates list under Thatcher. And Patel would have been instantly suspended and deselected for her treachery in Tel Aviv rather than being rewarded as with Boris. You may dislike the truth, but it is that the willingness of the current crop of Conservatives to bend any rule, including that of the law, for their own ends is just as dangerous as the fanaticism of large parts of Labour (and their willingness to ignore the law and treaty obligations, as with their nationalisation proposals. When the law becomes dispensable, so do the people.
It's fortunate that the voters are going to have a chance to judge the fitness for office of the likes of Patel, Francois and Baker in just 7 days from now.
Except that in our shithouse system, anyone in their constituencies who supports the Tory platform (poor deluded souls) yet does not find them fit for office has to vote for them anyway.
“And what on earth is wrong with asking people who suffer from gender dysphoria - for whom I have the utmost sympathy - to undergo a medical diagnosis before changing their gender? What, exactly, is the problem with this?”
If so, the answer is to increase funding to the level of need and improve education not allow a legal change which risks being seriously detrimental to women and their hard-won rights.
However, as I said earlier, the legal changes for self-identification have nothing to do with the medical treatment process.
And my point is that they ought to be in sync. Only when you are medically diagnosed as having gender dysphoria should you be able legally to change your gender.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Yes, many thanks for the MRP link - lots of great information.
Like for example here are the 12 seats where the Tories are currently shown as having at least a 75% chance of winning and where their best bookie's odds are 1.50 or better: Ashfield ............... 95% ...............1.80 Wakefield ............. 95% .............. 1.53 Eastbourne ........... 94% ...............2.00 Rother Valley ........ 89% ...............1.67 Don Valley ............ 87% .............. 1.85 Wolves Sth West .... 84% .............. 1.73 Blackpool South .... 84% .............. 1.50 Norfolk North ....... 82% ...............1.73 Kensington ........... 82% .............. 1.80 Stockton South ..... 81% .............. 1.57 Colne Valley ......... 79% .............. 1.60 Stoke-O-T(Nth)..... 78% .............. 1.53
George Zimmerman, who shot dead unarmed black teenager Trayvon Martin in 2012, is suing his family, their attorney, the US state and others for around $100m (£77m).
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Yes, many thanks for the MRP link - lots of great information.
Like for example here are the 12 seats where the Tories are currently shown as having at least a 75% chance of winning and where their best bookie's odds are 1.50 or better: Ashfield ............... 95% ...............1.80 Wakefield ............. 95% .............. 1.53 Eastbourne ........... 94% ...............2.00 Rother Valley ........ 89% ...............1.67 Don Valley ............ 87% .............. 1.85 Wolves Sth West .... 84% .............. 1.73 Blackpool South .... 84% .............. 1.50 Norfolk North ....... 82% ...............1.73 Kensington ........... 82% .............. 1.80 Stockton South ..... 81% .............. 1.57 Colne Valley ......... 79% .............. 1.60 Stoke-O-T(Nth)..... 78% .............. 1.53
As ever, DYOR
Ashfield I have left alone because of the independent.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Yes, many thanks for the MRP link - lots of great information.
Like for example here are the 12 seats where the Tories are currently shown as having at least a 75% chance of winning and where their best bookie's odds are 1.50 or better: Ashfield ............... 95% ...............1.80 Wakefield ............. 95% .............. 1.53 Eastbourne ........... 94% ...............2.00 Rother Valley ........ 89% ...............1.67 Don Valley ............ 87% .............. 1.85 Wolves Sth West .... 84% .............. 1.73 Blackpool South .... 84% .............. 1.50 Norfolk North ....... 82% ...............1.73 Kensington ........... 82% .............. 1.80 Stockton South ..... 81% .............. 1.57 Colne Valley ......... 79% .............. 1.60 Stoke-O-T(Nth)..... 78% .............. 1.53
As ever, DYOR
Blimey. Back of a fag packet, I'd make Blackpool South, Colne Valley, Stockton South and Eastbourne roughly 50-50, and the rest less than a one in three chance for CON. Now this is an intuitive reaction and I don't want to place my evidence-free gur feel above something professionally produced and evidence based. But unless something is seriously amiss tnis election is going to throw uo some very odd results. Rother Valley?! Don Valley?! I know what the polls aresaying, I'm just finding them veey hard to believe!
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Yes, many thanks for the MRP link - lots of great information.
Like for example here are the 12 seats where the Tories are currently shown as having at least a 75% chance of winning and where their best bookie's odds are 1.50 or better: Ashfield ............... 95% ...............1.80 Wakefield ............. 95% .............. 1.53 Eastbourne ........... 94% ...............2.00 Rother Valley ........ 89% ...............1.67 Don Valley ............ 87% .............. 1.85 Wolves Sth West .... 84% .............. 1.73 Blackpool South .... 84% .............. 1.50 Norfolk North ....... 82% ...............1.73 Kensington ........... 82% .............. 1.80 Stockton South ..... 81% .............. 1.57 Colne Valley ......... 79% .............. 1.60 Stoke-O-T(Nth)..... 78% .............. 1.53
As ever, DYOR
The other thing to do is to see how accurate the YouGov 2017 model was for the constituency.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
Indeed. I have put more money info FX than bets on the election, and am up well into three figures already. The good thing about betting on FX is that you can take some profits before the exit poll.
I can’t remember which PB’er it was who bought into a load of foreign currency anticipating a fall in the £, but fear he is going to be well out of pocket by now.
It was I and yes I would be. However (as I said in an earlier post) once a deal was announced and GBP crossed a certain threshold some weeks ago I traded out of around 70% of my foreign currency position in about a week in about three tranches. It was around this time that I worked out that online trading is geographically dependent (it only works if you are in a certain area) so this required booking a taxi to go into town to do it in the bank. I am now on first-name terms with the special adviser. Once the dust has settled and trading costs are taken into account my losses will be in low-four-figures spread over a year. However if I had not moved when I did it would be low-five-figures, so just no new laptop instead of slash-wrists-time.
I intend to write up he process in "Chronicle of a bet foretold: part 3", which hopefully @TheScreamingEagles will see fit to publish later in the year.
Page 48 of the Tory manifesto has had little coverage but shows what the Tories have in store as they try to grab more power for the executive .
This where I remind everyone that Labour's manifesto includes specific plans to extend the franchise to all residents of the UK, which could mean a net gain of millions of votes for Labour and would be the most extreme act of vote-rigging in generations.
It's not a competition to see who is seeking to change the rules of the game most in their partisan favour. At least it bloody well shouldnt be.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Yes, many thanks for the MRP link - lots of great information.
Like for example here are the 12 seats where the Tories are currently shown as having at least a 75% chance of winning and where their best bookie's odds are 1.50 or better: Ashfield ............... 95% ...............1.80 Wakefield ............. 95% .............. 1.53 Eastbourne ........... 94% ...............2.00 Rother Valley ........ 89% ...............1.67 Don Valley ............ 87% .............. 1.85 Wolves Sth West .... 84% .............. 1.73 Blackpool South .... 84% .............. 1.50 Norfolk North ....... 82% ...............1.73 Kensington ........... 82% .............. 1.80 Stockton South ..... 81% .............. 1.57 Colne Valley ......... 79% .............. 1.60 Stoke-O-T(Nth)..... 78% .............. 1.53
As ever, DYOR
Ashfield I have left alone because of the independent.
Comments
Maximum boundary unfairness was 2005 GE - then new boundaries at 2010 GE helped (albeit based on 2000 Electoral register) and now in the last 15 years there has been huge population growth in Labour seats in Inner London and also the likes of Manchester etc.
Boundaries are still a bit unfair to Con but it's now really only very marginal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-50671843
Titters.
I know.
I’m afraid I find much of the rest of your post a non-sequitur: they’re Labour because they’re young isn’t sufficient to explain it, and the percentages you cite aren’t correct either.
The spectre of a prominent individual in the movement having taken their children abroad for illegal (in the UK) surgery at ages below 16, and then subsequently using the police as a tool to silence critical commentary, is not reassuring.
Probably a function of age (first generation Windrush now elderly and better distributed around the UK) whereas recent migrants from Africa likely to be younger and have less emotional affinity with Britain, but hard to be certain.
Like for example here are the 12 seats where the Tories are currently shown as having at least a 75% chance of winning and where their best bookie's odds are 1.50 or better:
Ashfield ............... 95% ...............1.80
Wakefield ............. 95% .............. 1.53
Eastbourne ........... 94% ...............2.00
Rother Valley ........ 89% ...............1.67
Don Valley ............ 87% .............. 1.85
Wolves Sth West .... 84% .............. 1.73
Blackpool South .... 84% .............. 1.50
Norfolk North ....... 82% ...............1.73
Kensington ........... 82% .............. 1.80
Stockton South ..... 81% .............. 1.57
Colne Valley ......... 79% .............. 1.60
Stoke-O-T(Nth)..... 78% .............. 1.53
As ever, DYOR
Fuck.
Me.
I know what the polls aresaying, I'm just finding them veey hard to believe!
Fortunately someone has already done that.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18rrY4Yj07ne1QlhFYI0JuEl82dEXn5K4EdChKc8MRMo/edit?usp=drivesdk
For instance in Don Valley YouGov 2017 underestimated the Lab vote by 4.5% points.
I intend to write up he process in "Chronicle of a bet foretold: part 3", which hopefully @TheScreamingEagles will see fit to publish later in the year.