This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
Christ. It's right there in front of your eyes. And still Labourites dissemble and deny.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
How about addressing the issue rather than going off about Guido?
I thought I had by describing Jeremy and Boris as both being vile.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
Well looking at the polls one can understand the confidence. If the polls going into Election Day are ten plus points clear then I think it’s game over .
But anything under that is less so , the Lib Dems and Greens are likely to be squeezed on the day , and in 2017 Labour overperformed their final poll numbers by large amounts barring the Survation .
Labour have zero chance of a majority , and of being the largest party . However they don’t need to . Anything under a 6 point lead in terms of vote share on the day for the Tories and then it becomes much more uncertain .
The lead seems pretty consistently around 10% at the moment and for the last 10 days. This is a big change from 2017. Another change may well be that the Tories outperform this time instead of Labour. If they do we are still in landslide territory. This is either the biggest polling disaster in the slightly dodgy history of polling or a Tory majority is still being underestimated by the betting markets, scarred by 2017.
Of course we can’t assume the same will happen this time . So yes the Tories could easily get a landslide .
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
Unfortunately, most activists are interested in only using things like anti-semitism or Islamophobia as a stick to beat the other side.
Mr ReggieCide, Have a prize for a ludicrously childish post, that no doubt, in a very childish way, was meant as a repost to the previous poster's very logical position. I guess you are one of the gullible many that have been fooled by the charlatan, and one can easily see why lol.
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
This actually became scary as the video went on. "Well the Jews do this every time, every election the Jews do this"
Wow.
Yes, my reaction was the same. From puzzlement to shock to actual fear. Horrific
That's clearly what the globalist Zionist rulers of the world want you think ;-)
You know what, I think the global Zionist conspiracy is itself a Zionist conspiracy.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
Tories need to keep hammering away now until Wednesday. Spectator reporting they have as yet spent little of their campaign war chest, hoping to give it a blast in the coming days.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
Christ. It's right there in front of your eyes. And still Labourites dissemble and deny.
Depressing.
Idiot. If I was Labour would I say Corbyn is vile. This is why I also despise Tories - no sense.
For what it is worth I also believe the anti-Semitism issue is being used to hurt Labour, in quite a cynical way.
But the reason it is being used, like this, is because it works, and the reason it works is because Corbyn's Labour really is riddled with this horrible mental virus.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
Well looking at the polls one can understand the confidence. If the polls going into Election Day are ten plus points clear then I think it’s game over .
But anything under that is less so , the Lib Dems and Greens are likely to be squeezed on the day , and in 2017 Labour overperformed their final poll numbers by large amounts barring the Survation .
Labour have zero chance of a majority , and of being the largest party . However they don’t need to . Anything under a 6 point lead in terms of vote share on the day for the Tories and then it becomes much more uncertain .
The lead seems pretty consistently around 10% at the moment and for the last 10 days. This is a big change from 2017. Another change may well be that the Tories outperform this time instead of Labour. If they do we are still in landslide territory. This is either the biggest polling disaster in the slightly dodgy history of polling or a Tory majority is still being underestimated by the betting markets, scarred by 2017.
Of course we can’t assume the same will happen this time . So yes the Tories could easily get a landslide .
I think a landslide is more likely than a HP. A much more modest majority of 40-50 looks likeliest of all, of course.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
Christ. It's right there in front of your eyes. And still Labourites dissemble and deny.
Depressing.
Idiot. If I was Labour would I say Corbyn is vile. This is why I also despise Tories - no sense.
Fair enough. If you're not Labour I withdraw the allegation and apologise. But you are still a blinkered fool if you refuse to see what it there in plain sight.
4 Brexit MEP's announcing they are leaving the Brexit party
They clearly sniff a chance of a no deal exit when Bozo fails to land a trade deal next year. You’d think that these defections from far right to Tory would worry those people who are supporting Bozo purely because he says he has a soft Brexit ready to go.
Might it be that the defectors know that he is lying -- that it helps him for the time being if he seems a bit soft?
For what it is worth I also believe the anti-Semitism issue is being used to hurt Labour, in quite a cynical way.
But the reason it is being used, like this, is because it works, and the reason it works is because Corbyn's Labour really is riddled with this horrible mental virus.
OK, now some work to cheer me up. Later.
The Tories deserve to be gutted for their racism too and yet they aren’t. Why? Because this issue isn’t remotely fairly dealt with.
I think to be blunt both Johnson and Corbyn shouldn’t be anywhere near 10.
So the choices aren’t great . So it’s a case of who voters think will be least worst . As a Labour supporter I’m underwhelmed but will still vote Labour .
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
Goodness, you are clutching at straws. These were real people. Yes, no one likes being tricked, but some of the comments were pretty shocking. Anti-semitism is a cancer, and that cancer is clearly flourishing in the heart of the Labour left.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
How about addressing the issue rather than going off about Guido?
Guido has to be treated with a great deal of skepticism. You can end up looking a fool if you don't. That said, I watched the video. It features some "jews have all the money and control" type antisemitism and some hypocrisy from half a dozen ostensibly lefty types.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
We know there are anti-Semitic people at left wing protests. It's hardly surprising the videomaker was able to find some.
This isn't unique to the left though, it would be the case if you went to a Tory party conference also. Indeed when polled, Tory supporters are more likely to express anti Semitic statements.
For what it is worth I also believe the anti-Semitism issue is being used to hurt Labour, in quite a cynical way.
But the reason it is being used, like this, is because it works, and the reason it works is because Corbyn's Labour really is riddled with this horrible mental virus.
OK, now some work to cheer me up. Later.
The Tories deserve to be gutted for their racism too and yet they aren’t. Why? Because this issue isn’t remotely fairly dealt with.
Putting it bluntly - racism matters less to Tory supporters than it does to Labour supporters (NB - massive generalisation, but there's a kernel there).
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
How about addressing the issue rather than going off about Guido?
The book was the famous "Imperialism" (1902) by J A Hobson!
What a coincidence - that's exactly 100 years prior to Boris Johnson's 2002 use of the racist term "piccaninnies" that Enoch Powell also chose to employ in his 1968 "blood" speech. Powell may not have apologised, but Johnson did several years later and in time to be elected London mayor.
What next? Winston Churchill and Nesta Webster (1920)? Or H G Wells's "Anticipations" (1901)?
Here's an entertaining tidbit to look for on election night. With the BXP in utter freefall apparently might we see in one of the constituencies where both stand Pat Mountains UKIP outpoll Nigel Farages BXP?
Personally I think the best result would be a Hung Parliament, the resignation of Corbyn and a new Labour leader leading a minority Government where we can have voting reform. That seems the only realistic way out of this.
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If they've sampled it correctly the error bounds will be +/- 5%. Which gives Labour a max of 34% here and the Tories a minimum of 39%. Also refused/don't know excluded and they might help Labour out a touch.
But yes it seems a good poll for the blues.
In the north, the real tussle is between Austerity and Brexit. A lot of WWC are miffed at their MP voting against brexit in Parliament. Some have even labelled them traitors, At the same time, there is a lot of anger after nearly a decade of austerity. Which the Tories have be associated with. So it won't be an easy choice for them. I think the Tories, like in 2917, should think twice, before making assumptions. Corby was there in 2017 also, when they got 40+% votes. What has changed now wrt JC? His glasses??
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
How about addressing the issue rather than going off about Guido?
The book was the famous "Imperialism" (1902) by J A Hobson!
What a coincidence - that's exactly 100 years prior to Boris Johnson's 2002 use of the racist term "piccaninnies" that Enoch Powell also chose to employ in his 1968 "blood" speech. Powell may not have apologised, but Johnson did several years later and in time to be elected London mayor.
What next? Winston Churchill and Nesta Webster (1920)? Or H G Wells's "Anticipations" (1901)?
Powell, who remains a hero on the Tory and Brexiter right, was a notorious antisemite, incidentally - you don't hear much about that these days, funnily.
Personally I think the best result would be a Hung Parliament, the resignation of Corbyn and a new Labour leader leading a minority Government where we can have voting reform. That seems the only realistic way out of this.
Surely JC will present a HP as a triumph - and stay?
For what it is worth I also believe the anti-Semitism issue is being used to hurt Labour, in quite a cynical way.
But the reason it is being used, like this, is because it works, and the reason it works is because Corbyn's Labour really is riddled with this horrible mental virus.
OK, now some work to cheer me up. Later.
The Tories deserve to be gutted for their racism too and yet they aren’t. Why? Because this issue isn’t remotely fairly dealt with.
Putting it bluntly - racism matters less to Tory supporters than it does to Labour supporters (NB - massive generalisation, but there's a kernel there).
I don’t doubt that but my point is this debate is just completely hypocritical. You cannot vote Tory because you care about racism in Labour. Both parties are just as bad as each other.
Like I said before, the principled thing is to not vote or vote for another party.
Being pragmatic, the realistic solution is Corbyn resigning and a new leader leading a minority Government. This is what I hope happens frankly.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
How about addressing the issue rather than going off about Guido?
The book was the famous "Imperialism" (1902) by J A Hobson!
Personally I think the best result would be a Hung Parliament, the resignation of Corbyn and a new Labour leader leading a minority Government where we can have voting reform. That seems the only realistic way out of this.
Surely JC will present a HP as a triumph - and stay?
They will throw him to the wolves if it means the LDs and SNP withdrawing support. I am almost certain this is why Starmer is being quiet.
The Tories deserve to be gutted for their racism too and yet they aren’t. Why? Because this issue isn’t remotely fairly dealt with.
They are not being 'gutted for their racism' for the very simple reason that all of the accusations made against them by Corbynistas in the hope of diverting some of the ordure from themselves have been pathetically minor - a keyword search of old Boris articles (invariably without bothering to read what the article actually said), or some low-level Islamophobia amongst very junior people most of whom were swiftly dealt with. It is ludicrous to try to pretend that this is anything like the institutional anti-Semitism coming right from the top of the Labour Party, and which has driven out multiple MPs and many decent old-style Labout activists, who were genuinely anti-racist.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
Tamworth has always been Labour whenever they've been in government. It's precisely the sort of seat a party needs to win an election. The fact that Labour don't stand a chance there tells you everything you need to know about their prospects.
The latest BXP email from Farage. Hmm, that last paragraph reminds me of something .....
"Next Wednesday December 11th, on the eve of the General Election, I’ll be in the North East for our final rally of the campaign. Join me in Houghton-le-Spring to hear why there will be no real Brexit without Brexit Party MPs in Parliament.
This is the most important General Election of our lifetimes. The choice on December 12th is between Leave and Remain. In key seats from the North East and Yorkshire to South Wales, that means it’s a two-horse race between The Brexit Party and Corbyn’s Remainer Labour.
In many seats where the Tories have not won in at least 50 years, The Brexit Party is the main challenger to Corbyn’s Labour. We proved that by winning the May European Elections in the North East and every other Leave-voting region. Now we need to beat the Remainers again"
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If they've sampled it correctly the error bounds will be +/- 5%. Which gives Labour a max of 34% here and the Tories a minimum of 39%. Also refused/don't know excluded and they might help Labour out a touch.
But yes it seems a good poll for the blues.
In the north, the real tussle is between Austerity and Brexit. A lot of WWC are miffed at their MP voting against brexit in Parliament. Some have even labelled them traitors, At the same time, there is a lot of anger after nearly a decade of austerity. Which the Tories have be associated with. So it won't be an easy choice for them. I think the Tories, like in 2917, should think twice, before making assumptions. Corby was there in 2017 also, when they got 40+% votes. What has changed now wrt JC? His glasses??
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
We will see - but I do expect this effect in at least some voters. Whether it makes an actual impact, nobody knows.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
This actually became scary as the video went on. "Well the Jews do this every time, every election the Jews do this"
Wow.
That was horrific. The woman who reacts to him saying 'are you concerned that 50% of Jews are thinking of leaving the country' she says 'well where would they go, Palestine? Jews are just scared of Corbyn because they have off shore accounts and don't want to pay tax'
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
We know there are anti-Semitic people at left wing protests. It's hardly surprising the videomaker was able to find some.
This isn't unique to the left though, it would be the case if you went to a Tory party conference also. Indeed when polled, Tory supporters are more likely to express anti Semitic statements.
Personally I think the best result would be a Hung Parliament, the resignation of Corbyn and a new Labour leader leading a minority Government where we can have voting reform. That seems the only realistic way out of this.
Surely JC will present a HP as a triumph - and stay?
They will throw him to the wolves if it means the LDs and SNP withdrawing support. I am almost certain this is why Starmer is being quiet.
Starmer is being shut out becuase he's not a Corbyanista. so the inner circle won't want him as a replacement post election.
He's clearly very very intelligent, but I'm far from convinced he's front man potential.
How about addressing the issue rather than going off about Guido?
Guido has to be treated with a great deal of skepticism. You can end up looking a fool if you don't. That said, I watched the video. It features some "jews have all the money and control" type antisemitism and some hypocrisy from half a dozen ostensibly lefty types.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
Tories need to keep hammering away now until Wednesday. Spectator reporting they have as yet spent little of their campaign war chest, hoping to give it a blast in the coming days.
I keep wondering if, Casino Royale like - as per my namesake, now is the time I should look Le Chiffre (Corbyn) deep in the eye as I contemplate my play on the overall majority market, before I pause and say..
16 million 423 thousand two hundred and forty-two..
And then push all my gambling chips right into the centre of the table.
Personally I think the best result would be a Hung Parliament, the resignation of Corbyn and a new Labour leader leading a minority Government where we can have voting reform. That seems the only realistic way out of this.
Surely JC will present a HP as a triumph - and stay?
They will throw him to the wolves if it means the LDs and SNP withdrawing support. I am almost certain this is why Starmer is being quiet.
Starmer is being shut out becuase he's not a Corbyanista. so the inner circle won't want him as a replacement post election.
He's clearly very very intelligent, but I'm far from convinced he's front man potential.
He’s front man potential in that situation, outside of that the membership probably won’t vote for him.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
We know there are anti-Semitic people at left wing protests. It's hardly surprising the videomaker was able to find some.
This isn't unique to the left though, it would be the case if you went to a Tory party conference also. Indeed when polled, Tory supporters are more likely to express anti Semitic statements.
Do you have any evidence to back that up?
"Beware cherry-picked stats on Labour and antisemitism", this is called, from a website helpfully and now familiarly named "factcheck".
<<The graph suggests that 32 per cent of Labour supporters agreed with one of the antisemitic statements they were presented with. That’s somewhat lower than Conservative supporters (40 per cent).
Among the political parties, Liberal Democrats are least likely to agree with an antisemitic statement (30 per cent).>>
All rather stupid. They will impeach with no Republican support, he will be acquitted in the senate with no Republican dissent and then the democrats have shot their only bullet and have to explain to the electorate why theyve done nothing but chase impeachment for 4 years
I'm not convinced the Democratic leadership are that stupid.
Scenario 1: Trump attends impeachment trial, consents to being cross-examined. Does anyone seriously think he won't kook out, James Forrestal-style?
Scenario 2: Trump juts his chin and refuses to attend. A good look electorally?
Mr ReggieCide, Have a prize for a ludicrously childish post, that no doubt, in a very childish way, was meant as a repost to the previous poster's very logical position. I guess you are one of the gullible many that have been fooled by the charlatan, and one can easily see why lol.
Is that a general criticism or specific? Not that I care from a nincompoop.
Personally I think the best result would be a Hung Parliament, the resignation of Corbyn and a new Labour leader leading a minority Government where we can have voting reform. That seems the only realistic way out of this.
If Jezza and his acolytes resigned and the Labour Party veered back to the centre they would get a thumping majority at the subsequent GE.
It would of course not be the pure Labour Party that some (hi @NickPalmer ) have been waiting all their lives for, but it would be electable.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
He's just run a really weird campaign. Nothing like the energy and optimism of 2017 (fantastical though that was).
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
He's just run a really weird campaign. Nothing like the energy and optimism of 2017 (fantastical though that was).
Have they done any JezFest style rallies? I know it is winter, but people are out about and visiting Christmas markets.
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If they've sampled it correctly the error bounds will be +/- 5%. Which gives Labour a max of 34% here and the Tories a minimum of 39%. Also refused/don't know excluded and they might help Labour out a touch.
But yes it seems a good poll for the blues.
In the north, the real tussle is between Austerity and Brexit. A lot of WWC are miffed at their MP voting against brexit in Parliament. Some have even labelled them traitors, At the same time, there is a lot of anger after nearly a decade of austerity. Which the Tories have be associated with. So it won't be an easy choice for them. I think the Tories, like in 2917, should think twice, before making assumptions. Corby was there in 2017 also, when they got 40+% votes. What has changed now wrt JC? His glasses??
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
We will see - but I do expect this effect in at least some voters. Whether it makes an actual impact, nobody knows.
Luckily for the Conservatives, the ballot is still secret. Their secret is therefore safe from everyone else in the pub.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
He's just run a really weird campaign. Nothing like the energy and optimism of 2017 (fantastical though that was).
The graph suggests that 32 per cent of Labour supporters agreed with one of the antisemitic statements they were presented with. That’s somewhat lower than Conservative supporters (40 per cent).
Among the political parties, Liberal Democrats are least likely to agree with an antisemitic statement (30 per cent).
Err, no-one as far as I know has ever accused Labour supporters in general of anti-Semitism.
The Tories deserve to be gutted for their racism too and yet they aren’t. Why? Because this issue isn’t remotely fairly dealt with.
They are not being 'gutted for their racism' for the very simple reason that all of the accusations made against them by Corbynistas in the hope of diverting some of the ordure from themselves have been pathetically minor - a keyword search of old Boris articles (invariably without bothering to read what the article actually said), or some low-level Islamophobia amongst very junior people most of whom were swiftly dealt with. It is ludicrous to try to pretend that this is anything like the institutional anti-Semitism coming right from the top of the Labour Party, and which has driven out multiple MPs and many decent old-style Labout activists, who were genuinely anti-racist.
And because the Conservative Party enquiry into its own Islamophobia, pledged by Boris, has mysteriously but conveniently slipped down the CCHQ to-do list.
All rather stupid. They will impeach with no Republican support, he will be acquitted in the senate with no Republican dissent and then the democrats have shot their only bullet and have to explain to the electorate why theyve done nothing but chase impeachment for 4 years
I'm not convinced the Democratic leadership are that stupid.
Scenario 1: Trump attends impeachment trial, consents to being cross-examined. Does anyone seriously think he won't kook out, James Forrestal-style?
Scenario 2: Trump juts his chin and refuses to attend. A good look electorally?
The Republican senate control the process for the trial, they will ensure it shows the Democrats up. This will end up as a dud split on partisan lines and thus will be seen as a partisan attempt to remove a sitting president. Like all other impeachments. Plus schiff and biden will get dragged through the mud as a bonus on the way.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
He's just run a really weird campaign. Nothing like the energy and optimism of 2017 (fantastical though that was).
He's 70, and showing it.
I have to say one of the most amazing thing about the Donald campaign was despite his age and unhealthy lifestyle, the amount of rallies he did was incredible. I wonder if he can actually repeat that in 2020?
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If they've sampled it correctly the error bounds will be +/- 5%. Which gives Labour a max of 34% here and the Tories a minimum of 39%. Also refused/don't know excluded and they might help Labour out a touch.
But yes it seems a good poll for the blues.
In the north, the real tussle is between Austerity and Brexit. A lot of WWC are miffed at their MP voting against brexit in Parliament. Some have even labelled them traitors, At the same time, there is a lot of anger after nearly a decade of austerity. Which the Tories have be associated with. So it won't be an easy choice for them. I think the Tories, like in 2917, should think twice, before making assumptions. Corby was there in 2017 also, when they got 40+% votes. What has changed now wrt JC? His glasses??
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
We will see - but I do expect this effect in at least some voters. Whether it makes an actual impact, nobody knows.
I agree, for the working classes in the North, Brexit in 2016 was a means to throw a flaming molotov cocktail at the Tory run establishment. As they were hit with austerity as well as mass Eastern European migration at their doorstep. For many, to swallow all the pain from austerity, ignore their tradition and vote Tories would require some degreee of soul killing... I doubt it .. Tories may win 10-20 seats at the max, definitely not the 40-60 they dream of. Like their dream of 450 in 2017
“And what on earth is wrong with asking people who suffer from gender dysphoria - for whom I have the utmost sympathy - to undergo a medical diagnosis before changing their gender? What, exactly, is the problem with this?”
If so, the answer is to increase funding to the level of need and improve education not allow a legal change which risks being seriously detrimental to women and their hard-won rights.
That puts paid to another BS myth: the biggest youthquake “surge” yet.
Firstly, a lot of students will have just started at university in October (so will need to register for the first time) or have gone back but to new digs and will need to re-register at the new address. For everyone else, it’s because it’s a funny time of year and the electoral roll isn’t necessarily up to date. Particularly for those renting and highly mobile in metropolitan cities.
The Tories deserve to be gutted for their racism too and yet they aren’t. Why? Because this issue isn’t remotely fairly dealt with.
They are not being 'gutted for their racism' for the very simple reason that all of the accusations made against them by Corbynistas in the hope of diverting some of the ordure from themselves have been pathetically minor - a keyword search of old Boris articles (invariably without bothering to read what the article actually said), or some low-level Islamophobia amongst very junior people most of whom were swiftly dealt with. It is ludicrous to try to pretend that this is anything like the institutional anti-Semitism coming right from the top of the Labour Party, and which has driven out multiple MPs and many decent old-style Labout activists, who were genuinely anti-racist.
Well said Richard. "Islamophobia in the Tory Party" is a smoke-screen designed to mask Labour`s woes.
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
They ALL walked past their Dad's grave on the way to vote?
I think to be blunt both Johnson and Corbyn shouldn’t be anywhere near 10.
So the choices aren’t great . So it’s a case of who voters think will be least worst . As a Labour supporter I’m underwhelmed but will still vote Labour .
Well I'd agree with your first sentence. I'll still vote Tory, because I think Corbyn, even in coalition, would be the biggest disaster to happen to this country since the war, but I usually vote Tory anyway - you'd expect that conclusion. I am, however, seriously pissed off with the Lib Dems. I didn't expect them come over all Eurosceptic all of a sudden, but as a voter I could have swallowed their Europhilia if they'd beena bit less childish about it and if they'd occupied the 'run the country competently' ground. Instead of which they're banging on about non-traditional genders and bombarding people with dodgy stats attached to Mike Smithson's image. And look, I know they have some worthwhile policies around fiscal probity (sort of), teachers and the environment. But they've put very little effort into presenting themselves as a serious party with a serious offer.
That puts paid to another BS myth: the biggest youthquake “surge” yet.
Firstly, a lot of students will have just started at university in October (so will need to register for the first time) or have gone back but to new digs and will need to re-register at the new address. For everyone else, it’s because it’s a funny time of year and the electoral roll isn’t necessarily up to date. Particularly for those renting and highly mobile in metropolitan cities.
Err. That’s it. Means very little.
That's only 4 seats though.
I did say at the time though that lots of universities now send off an auto-enroll for all their students (unless they opt out, which they don't) regardless of if they are already etc. Hence why we saw 4 large 1-day spikes in registrations.
And because the Conservative Party enquiry into its own Islamophobia, pledged by Boris, has mysteriously but conveniently slipped down the CCHQ to-do list.
They've got rather a lot else on the plates at the moment.
Look, I'm not a member of the party, I'm certainly not a defender of Boris and I resigned when he became leader, but it's frankly bonkers to try to make some kind of equivalence between anti-Semitism in Labour and prejudice in the Conservative Party or elsewhere. The cancer in Labour is unprecedented in modern British history.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
So, for the working classes in the North to vote Tories would mean ' Thanks for austerity and shafting me 9 years, here have another 5' Or thanks that 3 Tory PMs could not sort our Brexit in 3.5 years. Have another 5 Do the Tories really believe they are soo stupid??
That seems a tad overblown. Even for commie students.
Do you know many students? It looks plausible to me (sand fits with the general pattern that highly-educasted people tend to vote Labour - it's a university thing, not just a student thing, I suspect though you'd be comforted if you saw the certainty to vote.
Yes, my nephews. And I was one myself 15 years ago.
I’m not denying students favour Labour, but I’d expect 50-60% in line with other polls.
Over 70% seems absolutely huge to me, and the Tory/LD share way lower than captured elsewhere, and I’d be very surprised if they were that monolithic in the current climate for Labour.
They certainly weren’t in my day.
It's not huge given that in 2017 an estimated 61.5% of voters under 40 (source) voted Labour. 70% Labour among u40 graduates and undergraduates and 50% among other u40s wouldn't be surprising.
That shows 66% of 18-19 yr olds and 62% of 20-24 yr olds voting Labour off a national base of 40%.
This seems to show 71% of all students (almost all will be under 25) off a 34-35% base (max).
Have young people really further moved heavily towards Labour this time, over 2017?
I’m not so sure. Cyclefree’s anecdotes about her children bear this up too.
Around 30% of 18 year olds apply for university, and around 50% of youngsters enter higher education before they are 30. Labour running at 70%-75% among undergraduates both in 2017 and now wouldn't be surprising. There's a huge age divide in Labour/Tory. Labour need to convey that social provision for the young (university tuition) and over-50s (main users of the NHS) comes as a bundle. Whether they can is another matter.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
He's just run a really weird campaign. Nothing like the energy and optimism of 2017 (fantastical though that was).
Have they done any JezFest style rallies? I know it is winter, but people are out about and visiting Christmas markets.
“And what on earth is wrong with asking people who suffer from gender dysphoria - for whom I have the utmost sympathy - to undergo a medical diagnosis before changing their gender? What, exactly, is the problem with this?”
If so, the answer is to increase funding to the level of need and improve education not allow a legal change which risks being seriously detrimental to women and their hard-won rights.
However, as I said earlier, the legal changes for self-identification have nothing to do with the medical treatment process.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
They ALL walked past their Dad's grave on the way to vote?
No sorry I meant none of them could vote Tory. For the particular person that was why
So, for the working classes in the North to vote Tories would mean ' Thanks for austerity and shafting me 9 years, here have another 5' Or thanks that 3 Tory PMs could not sort our Brexit in 3.5 years. Have another 5 Do the Tories really believe they are soo stupid??
Dunno what they think but another strand of thought would be that having voted for Brexit to make their lives better they have seen the southern jessies frustrate every attempt at actually Brexiting. The Conservatives are the only party who will deliver to those northern working classes what they voted for three years ago.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
Indeed. I have put more money info FX than bets on the election, and am up well into three figures already. The good thing about betting on FX is that you can take some profits before the exit poll.
I can’t remember which PB’er it was who bought into a load of foreign currency anticipating a fall in the £, but fear he is going to be well out of pocket by now.
Corbyn looking tired on BBC News, deflecting antisemitism stuff. Reporter from Tamworth saying Labour canvassers almost accepting defeat and citing dislike of Corbyn as main reason.
But Tamworth is solidly Tory over the past couple of elections. They won in 2017 by 61/35.
So what the hell is he doing there? The Labour campaign in 2017 was slick and surprisingly effective. 2019, so far, not so much.
Got lost? All these towns in the Midlands and the North look the same :-)
Given his popularity ratings if you were a Labour MP desperately trying to hang on would you want Corbyn to visit? Would the additional coverage in the local press be worth the reminder of why voting Labour is so difficult? Quite a difficult call, I would have said. Maybe he is less damaging in Tory seats.
Apparently, JC is yet to visit Wales during this campaign, (due there this weekend). Even the FM of Wales admits he is a "marmite" character on the doorstep.
He's just run a really weird campaign. Nothing like the energy and optimism of 2017 (fantastical though that was).
He's 70, and showing it.
I have to say one of the most amazing thing about the Donald campaign was despite his age and unhealthy lifestyle, the amount of rallies he did was incredible. I wonder if he can actually repeat that in 2020?
Trump seemed more outrageous and controversial with his various big policy positions in 2016. He sounded dangerous but not like a raving man child losing the plot. These days there's actually very little in terms of policy change coming out of the White House, its all just petty tweets, temper tantrums, and general indications that he is no 'all there'. All heat and no light. The economy hasn't collapsed which is in his favour but he also has remarkably little to actually demonstrate in terms of policy achievements. Think any rallies will be far less enthused than before. Even his army of reddit troll alt right supporters has dwindled away.
If he wins in 2020 it will be because of traditional partisan loyalties and fear of a socialist (if dems pick Warren or Bernie).
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
They ALL walked past their Dad's grave on the way to vote?
Yes they did.
Next week Thursday when it is polling day they all walked past their dad's grave on their way to the polling station; then they all discussed it in the pub afterwards next week Thursday.
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
They ALL walked past their Dad's grave on the way to vote?
And when did they vote? As far as I remember polling day is next Thursday (unless they all went past the graveyard on their way to the postbox!).
You really are being a bit silly now. Is it because the ascent of "Boris" has left you politically homeless? On the streets as it were.
The ascent of Boris irritated the fuck out of me but whenever I ponder my malaise I glance briefly at Jezza and think "anyone but him". And voila, doubts evaporate.
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If they've sampled it correctly the error bounds will be +/- 5%. Which gives Labour a max of 34% here and the Tories a minimum of 39%. Also refused/don't know excluded and they might help Labour out a touch.
But yes it seems a good poll for the blues.
In the north, the real tussle is between Austerity and Brexit. A lot of WWC are miffed at their MP voting against brexit in Parliament. Some have even labelled them traitors, At the same time, there is a lot of anger after nearly a decade of austerity. Which the Tories have be associated with. So it won't be an easy choice for them. I think the Tories, like in 2917, should think twice, before making assumptions. Corby was there in 2017 also, when they got 40+% votes. What has changed now wrt JC? His glasses??
In the North, there is a slim chance those reporting they’ll vote Tory change their mind in the last couple of days or even when they get into the polling station.
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
We will see - but I do expect this effect in at least some voters. Whether it makes an actual impact, nobody knows.
As a northerner myself I am DEAD at this anecdote. It’s an absolute hoot. Keep them coming.
We are, of course, all the same - with our flat caps and our whippets, guilted against voting Tory from beyond the grace by our dear socialist fathers.
Yep, all the billionaires paying back, for being well looked after by the Tories. With tax breaks and off shore banking. For the rest, no bread, you can always eat Brexit
Trump seemed more outrageous and controversial with his various big policy positions in 2016. He sounded dangerous but not like a raving man child losing the plot. These days there's actually very little in terms of policy change coming out of the White House, its all just petty tweets, temper tantrums, and general indications that he is no 'all there'. All heat and no light. The economy hasn't collapsed which is in his favour but he also has remarkably little to actually demonstrate in terms of policy achievements. Think any rallies will be far less enthused than before. Even his army of reddit troll alt right supporters has dwindled away.
If he wins in 2020 it will be because of traditional partisan loyalties and fear of a socialist (if dems pick Warren or Bernie).
One thing I would say, ego-maniac Trump loves doing those rallies. Where as he clearly hates doing all the stuff like the NATO meet-up.
One thing that is surprising with this GE, is I put Jezza in the same boat. He genuinely seems to love campaigning, he has been practising for 40 years, but it seems much more muted this time.
His betting tip - or at least, hint - in 2017 was the most valuable of the campaign.
See "Let`s Talk Landslides", written as a header for us 23rd November.
It concluded:
"The markets for the number of Con seats or size of majority look quite under-developed but as they come on streeam, I expect the value to be to go high on Con. I think Johnson could well end up sitting pretty with the biggest Tory majority since at least 1983."
Comments
Depressing.
Unfortunately, most activists are interested in only using things like anti-semitism or Islamophobia as a stick to beat the other side.
Chaps with big money and lots of self-confidence were also convinced we were going to Remain.
https://twitter.com/StuartWilksHeeg/status/1202587961675698178
Tories need to keep hammering away now until Wednesday. Spectator reporting they have as yet spent little of their campaign war chest, hoping to give it a blast in the coming days.
But the reason it is being used, like this, is because it works, and the reason it works is because Corbyn's Labour really is riddled with this horrible mental virus.
OK, now some work to cheer me up. Later.
So the choices aren’t great . So it’s a case of who voters think will be least worst . As a Labour supporter I’m underwhelmed but will still vote Labour .
This isn't unique to the left though, it would be the case if you went to a Tory party conference also. Indeed when polled, Tory supporters are more likely to express anti Semitic statements.
What a coincidence - that's exactly 100 years prior to Boris Johnson's 2002 use of the racist term "piccaninnies" that Enoch Powell also chose to employ in his 1968 "blood" speech. Powell may not have apologised, but Johnson did several years later and in time to be elected London mayor.
What next? Winston Churchill and Nesta Webster (1920)? Or H G Wells's "Anticipations" (1901)?
At the same time, there is a lot of anger after nearly a decade of austerity. Which the Tories have be associated with.
So it won't be an easy choice for them. I think the Tories, like in 2917, should think twice, before making assumptions.
Corby was there in 2017 also, when they got 40+% votes. What has changed now wrt JC? His glasses??
Like I said before, the principled thing is to not vote or vote for another party.
Being pragmatic, the realistic solution is Corbyn resigning and a new leader leading a minority Government. This is what I hope happens frankly.
Case closed.
"Next Wednesday December 11th, on the eve of the General Election, I’ll be in the North East for our final rally of the campaign. Join me in Houghton-le-Spring to hear why there will be no real Brexit without Brexit Party MPs in Parliament.
This is the most important General Election of our lifetimes. The choice on December 12th is between Leave and Remain. In key seats from the North East and Yorkshire to South Wales, that means it’s a two-horse race between The Brexit Party and Corbyn’s Remainer Labour.
In many seats where the Tories have not won in at least 50 years, The Brexit Party is the main challenger to Corbyn’s Labour. We proved that by winning the May European Elections in the North East and every other Leave-voting region. Now we need to beat the Remainers again"
I recall an anecdote possibly from here where a voter determined to vote Tory in a Labour marginal walked past his Dad’s grave and got to the polling station and couldn’t do it. Apparently in the pub afterwards his friends all said the same.
We will see - but I do expect this effect in at least some voters. Whether it makes an actual impact, nobody knows.
What the actual f**k ?
He's clearly very very intelligent, but I'm far from convinced he's front man potential.
16 million 423 thousand two hundred and forty-two..
And then push all my gambling chips right into the centre of the table.
Call.
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-antisemitism-political-parties
<<The graph suggests that 32 per cent of Labour supporters agreed with one of the antisemitic statements they were presented with. That’s somewhat lower than Conservative supporters (40 per cent).
Among the political parties, Liberal Democrats are least likely to agree with an antisemitic statement (30 per cent).>>
Scenario 1: Trump attends impeachment trial, consents to being cross-examined. Does anyone seriously think he won't kook out, James Forrestal-style?
Scenario 2: Trump juts his chin and refuses to attend. A good look electorally?
It would of course not be the pure Labour Party that some (hi @NickPalmer ) have been waiting all their lives for, but it would be electable.
Luckily for the Conservatives, the ballot is still secret. Their secret is therefore safe from everyone else in the pub.
This will end up as a dud split on partisan lines and thus will be seen as a partisan attempt to remove a sitting president. Like all other impeachments. Plus schiff and biden will get dragged through the mud as a bonus on the way.
For many, to swallow all the pain from austerity, ignore their tradition and vote Tories would require some degreee of soul killing... I doubt it .. Tories may win 10-20 seats at the max, definitely not the 40-60 they dream of. Like their dream of 450 in 2017
“And what on earth is wrong with asking people who suffer from gender dysphoria - for whom I have the utmost sympathy - to undergo a medical diagnosis before changing their gender? What, exactly, is the problem with this?”
Inadequate funding, and widespread ignorance.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/feb/26/trans-patients-in-england-face-soul-destroying-wait-for-treatment
If so, the answer is to increase funding to the level of need and improve education not allow a legal change which risks being seriously detrimental to women and their hard-won rights.
That puts paid to another BS myth: the biggest youthquake “surge” yet.
Firstly, a lot of students will have just started at university in October (so will need to register for the first time) or have gone back but to new digs and will need to re-register at the new address. For everyone else, it’s because it’s a funny time of year and the electoral roll isn’t necessarily up to date. Particularly for those renting and highly mobile in metropolitan cities.
Err. That’s it. Means very little.
I am, however, seriously pissed off with the Lib Dems. I didn't expect them come over all Eurosceptic all of a sudden, but as a voter I could have swallowed their Europhilia if they'd beena bit less childish about it and if they'd occupied the 'run the country competently' ground. Instead of which they're banging on about non-traditional genders and bombarding people with dodgy stats attached to Mike Smithson's image. And look, I know they have some worthwhile policies around fiscal probity (sort of), teachers and the environment. But they've put very little effort into presenting themselves as a serious party with a serious offer.
I did say at the time though that lots of universities now send off an auto-enroll for all their students (unless they opt out, which they don't) regardless of if they are already etc. Hence why we saw 4 large 1-day spikes in registrations.
Look, I'm not a member of the party, I'm certainly not a defender of Boris and I resigned when he became leader, but it's frankly bonkers to try to make some kind of equivalence between anti-Semitism in Labour and prejudice in the Conservative Party or elsewhere. The cancer in Labour is unprecedented in modern British history.
' Thanks for austerity and shafting me 9 years, here have another 5'
Or thanks that 3 Tory PMs could not sort our Brexit in 3.5 years. Have another 5
Do the Tories really believe they are soo stupid??
His betting tip - or at least, hint - in 2017 was the most valuable of the campaign.
I can’t remember which PB’er it was who bought into a load of foreign currency anticipating a fall in the £, but fear he is going to be well out of pocket by now.
If he wins in 2020 it will be because of traditional partisan loyalties and fear of a socialist (if dems pick Warren or Bernie).
Next week Thursday when it is polling day they all walked past their dad's grave on their way to the polling station; then they all discussed it in the pub afterwards next week Thursday.
We are, of course, all the same - with our flat caps and our whippets, guilted against voting Tory from beyond the grace by our dear socialist fathers.
Electorate DOWN in:
Batley & Spen
Colne Valley
Dewsbury
Huddersfield
Enfield Southgate
UP in:
Lambeth seats (up a lot 8 or 9%)
Continuation of trend whereby boundary unfairness to Con is actually reducing - fastest growing area of country is London Labour seats.
One thing that is surprising with this GE, is I put Jezza in the same boat. He genuinely seems to love campaigning, he has been practising for 40 years, but it seems much more muted this time.
It concluded:
"The markets for the number of Con seats or size of majority look quite under-developed but as they come on streeam, I expect the value to be to go high on Con. I think Johnson could well end up sitting pretty with the biggest Tory majority since at least 1983."
https://order-order.com/2019/12/05/pro-libdem-front-group-clear-abuse-electoral-law/