This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Not a single seat in which Labour is favourite to make a gain. Remarkable.
I suspect on the night even if the 8-10 point margin is sustained there will be up to a handful of Lab gains (Chipping Barnet, Putney etc) but really hard to see where they might come from outside the South of England.
Yay! ITV are reprising the very successful George and Ed show on election night. Particularly pleasing since Sky have chosen to make themselves unwatchable with the poison dwarf.
I believe Ruth is doing a guest appearance as well.
Unfortunately, Sky News is still required watching because of Thrasher.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
So many people who will always vote Corbyn will still always vote Corbyn? I'm sure the MRP has factored that one in, same reason it doesn't have Labour winning Finchley & Golders Green.
I thought MRP couldn’t account for tactical voting?
It was well over 90% Islamic voters voting Labour in 2017 but even 5% more is potentially a lot of people. Islam is a huge vote potentially.
If SC judges start taking decisions on key constitutional and political matters it will be no surprise if the Lord Chancellor of the Government of the day starts to appoint judges more in line with the views of the governing party
Hopefully Brexit will happen, everyone will calm down a little and take a step back from messing with the constitution.
What a lot of constitutional meddling we’ve had starting with Blair, with quite severe consequences.
Crippling parliamentary deadlock caused by FTPA, devolution feeding rather than satiating the independence monkey, politicisation of the judiciary following the half cocked replacement of the law lords with the Supreme Court...
The Box is now halfway open. You either need to slam it shut again or take off the lid come what may.
"Crippling parliamentary deadlock caused by FTPA" Many other countries have fixed periods between elections, do they all suffer deadlock?
Perhaps the FTPA is simply not compatible with FPTP?
Two reasons. (1) Used to being demonized. (2) Genuinely does not want to give offence to people over something so relatively unimportant.
For example, a dear friend who you know loves Cliff Richard - such that anti Cliff comment genuinely upsets them - asks you what you think of his latest xmas single.
If the Tories do win then one of the great moments for me will be watching Lewis Goodall reporting on it. His twitter feed has slowly declined into Labour propaganda as we near polling day with all sorts of reasons why they will exceed expectations with little in the way of fact. I don't watch Newsnight now but with him involved I'd see no reason to start.
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
Yes that was good optics. Even I liked that. Trump laughed out of town!
If the Tories do win then one of the great moments for me will be watching Lewis Goodall reporting on it. His twitter feed has slowly declined into Labour propaganda as we near polling day with all sorts of reasons why they will exceed expectations with little in the way of fact. I don't watch Newsnight now but with him involved I'd see no reason to start.
Even less people will be watching him on Newsnight than currently on Sky. Like QT, it seems to have totally lost its way and it is telling that all political parties don't feel the need to bother going on it these days. Back in the day, every party sent out their supposed best performers every night to battle on there.
Two reasons. (1) Used to being demonized. (2) Genuinely does not want to give offence to people over something so relatively unimportant.
For example, a dear friend who you know loves Cliff Richard - such that anti Cliff comment genuinely upsets them - asks you what you think of his latest xmas single.
You hate it. Do you say so?
None of us are dear friends of that old racist tit. More like work colleagues all of whom have put in complaints about him.
Yay! ITV are reprising the very successful George and Ed show on election night. Particularly pleasing since Sky have chosen to make themselves unwatchable with the poison dwarf.
I believe Ruth is doing a guest appearance as well.
Unfortunately, Sky News is still required watching because of Thrasher.
I think I will rely on PB to keep me appraised of that.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Got to say that Bozza being in the group that took the piss out of Trump has definitely helped his standing this morning with non-Tory voters I know. Him laughing at Trump is going viral.
and it is so going to help the US trade deal that the Brexiteers are banking on.
Yes, I genuinely hope Donald doesn't get wind of this. We know what he's like. He could suddenly demand that we give him the NHS before he grants us a trade deal purely to spite Boris.
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
Do you have ANY inkling as to how repulsive and weasly your posts increasingly sound?
Traditionally we welcome new posters, but if you're going to make a habit of slagging off long-standing respected posters like Foxy (who is a LibDem, by the way), then you might like to take your custom elsewhere.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
So many people who will always vote Corbyn will still always vote Corbyn? I'm sure the MRP has factored that one in, same reason it doesn't have Labour winning Finchley & Golders Green.
I thought MRP couldn’t account for tactical voting?
It was well over 90% Islamic voters voting Labour in 2017 but even 5% more is potentially a lot of people. Islam is a huge vote potentially.
The MRP will presumably dilute evidence of tactical voting - which will be picked up from panellists of certain demographics who are voting tactically - by spreading it across its national projection, rather than into the seats where it matters. This ought to give the opposition parties an upside in reality, although this wasn’t an upside that appeared in 2017.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
So many people who will always vote Corbyn will still always vote Corbyn? I'm sure the MRP has factored that one in, same reason it doesn't have Labour winning Finchley & Golders Green.
The reason Labour haven't bothered in F&GG. I have had an election address and seen a single poster. LD & CON activity on a daily basis. Slightly more LD overall.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
Most Muslims live in safe Labour seats.
Which seat will have the biggest swing against the incumbent MP this election ? I reckon this is a two horse race between Mike Gapes and Roger Godsiff.
I think Gapes will edge it, Godsiff probably more in touch with his local voters and so he'll retain a bigger rump personal vote in Hall Green.
With both parties pledging to recruit many tens of thousands of police, teachers and nurses, and the UK having low unemployment and demographics getting older and older with fewer people of working age, why is no-one linking this back to migration?
For Tories - Immigration = Cheap labour and means to polarise the WWC For Labour- Immigration = Votes and Cheap labour
Tories are planning mass migration, to fill the above jobs. Not from Europe, but from India/ Pakistan and Nigeria. Based on some dubious point based system, courtesy of Priti Patel. Who wants only to attract the best and where visas will be fast trackd within 2 weeks. Priti's parents were small time shopkeepers and would not have qualified under her ' posh' scheme. So she does accepting, that's she is a product of immigrants, the type the Tories would not let in?
No, migrsnts from India, Pakustan and Nigeria previously excluded in favour of those from Europe will now be treated on level terms based on the skills they bring
Nope, it was never 'level terms' . As most Europeans, specially Eastern Europeans, didn't have to pass any English fluency tests and their degrees were automatically recognised. This and the ease of no visas meant they just walked into jobs. Post brexit, with requirements and degree validation, most don't stand a chance and jobs will be taken up by Pakistani and Nigerians. Simples, Brexit is simply a choice between European and Commonwealth immigration
What do people think of Labour’s plan to ban MPs from having second jobs? Does it mean the cabinet will have to be in the Lords or are there going to be exceptions for the right sort of job?
My own opinion is this is the sort of thing the electorate should be able to decide, as long as everything is fully declared. What counts as a job anyway: should a writer no longer be able to write?
Does this mean that Paul Beresford would have to give up his job as MP for Mole Valley? I ask since he treats that as his second job whilst concentrating on his dental practice.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
This is all getting a bit much.
I live with a small fragment of the Jewish Community. She's an intelligent woman who has researched the subject and has contributed regularly to the Jewish Chronicle. She doesn't like Corbyn but she doesn't think Krystallnacht is around the corner, nor has she experienced any meaningful impact of AS personally. (Misogyny yes, the excesses of the PQ definitely, but AS....not really.)
Sure the Labour Party has a problem. Sure it's right to raise it. But enough with it now. It's being done to death and the motivation behind it is beginning to look suspect.
This many have passed people by but for the YouGov MRP they have a companion PDF describing both how it all works AND the MRP implied probability of various parties taking or losing seats.
That is brilliant - thanks for pointing it out. There's a lot of good stuff in there.
Not a single seat in which Labour is favourite to make a gain. Remarkable.
I suspect on the night even if the 8-10 point margin is sustained there will be up to a handful of Lab gains (Chipping Barnet, Putney etc) but really hard to see where they might come from outside the South of England.
Probably depends on how much closer it has got since the Yougov MRP. Not much, but just maybe enough for 1. It's getting very hard to see Labour losing less than 50 seats, including 6 to the SNP.
That seems a tad overblown. Even for commie students.
Do you know many students? It looks plausible to me (sand fits with the general pattern that highly-educasted people tend to vote Labour - it's a university thing, not just a student thing, I suspect though you'd be comforted if you saw the certainty to vote.
Just caught up with Jezza and Queen's Speech. The man's a disgrace! How can he not know that Her Majesty's Christmas Address to the Nation is on at three? In our house we stand before the wireless saluting!
Or, as Francois puts it:
"Good grief. I knew Corbyn was a communist and a terrorist, but not watching the Queen's speech? Treason. If he doesn't watch Escape to Victory, 633 Squadron and The Dambusters I think the Beefeaters have reasonable cause to lock him in the tower."
" It is a fight the Tories are winning, according to a poll for The Economist by Survation. They stand at 44% as Labour limps along on 29%, down 20 points from the last election (see chart). Having been held by Labour since 1935, Wrexham seems ready to turn blue next week."
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
Do you have ANY inkling as to how repulsive and weasly your posts increasingly sound?
Traditionally we welcome new posters, but if you're going to make a habit of slagging off long-standing respected posters like Foxy (who is a LibDem, by the way), then you might like to take your custom elsewhere.
We don't like self appointed site policemen either.
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
Do you have ANY inkling as to how repulsive and weasly your posts increasingly sound?
Traditionally we welcome new posters, but if you're going to make a habit of slagging off long-standing respected posters like Foxy (who is a LibDem, by the way), then you might like to take your custom elsewhere.
I am a long standing poster but had to change my posting name at the time of the shenanigans over vanilla.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
This is all getting a bit much.
I live with a small fragment of the Jewish Community. She's an intelligent woman who has researched the subject and has contributed regularly to the Jewish Chronicle. She doesn't like Corbyn but she doesn't think Krystallnacht is around the corner, nor has she experienced any meaningful impact of AS personally. (Misogyny yes, the excesses of the PQ definitely, but AS....not really.)
Sure the Labour Party has a problem. Sure it's right to raise it. But enough with it now. It's being done to death and the motivation behind it isd beginning to look suspect.
Watch. That, Video. And think again
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
" It is a fight the Tories are winning, according to a poll for The Economist by Survation. They stand at 44% as Labour limps along on 29%, down 20 points from the last election (see chart). Having been held by Labour since 1935, Wrexham seems ready to turn blue next week."
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
This is all getting a bit much.
I live with a small fragment of the Jewish Community. She's an intelligent woman who has researched the subject and has contributed regularly to the Jewish Chronicle. She doesn't like Corbyn but she doesn't think Krystallnacht is around the corner, nor has she experienced any meaningful impact of AS personally. (Misogyny yes, the excesses of the PQ definitely, but AS....not really.)
Sure the Labour Party has a problem. Sure it's right to raise it. But enough with it now. It's being done to death and the motivation behind it is beginning to look suspect.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
This is all getting a bit much.
I live with a small fragment of the Jewish Community. She's an intelligent woman who has researched the subject and has contributed regularly to the Jewish Chronicle. She doesn't like Corbyn but she doesn't think Krystallnacht is around the corner, nor has she experienced any meaningful impact of AS personally. (Misogyny yes, the excesses of the PQ definitely, but AS....not really.)
Sure the Labour Party has a problem. Sure it's right to raise it. But enough with it now. It's being done to death and the motivation behind it is beginning to look suspect.
As are the attempts to paper over it and 'move on' by the enablers in the labour party Until they are formally exposed and the careers of the dozens of racists at the core of labour are ended it needs hammering day after day. And labour supporters need to be made aware they are voting for racial division and to own that choice.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
Most Muslims live in safe Labour seats.
Which seat will have the biggest swing against the incumbent MP this election ? I reckon this is a two horse race between Mike Gapes and Roger Godsiff.
I think Gapes will edge it, Godsiff probably more in touch with his local voters and so he'll retain a bigger rump personal vote in Hall Green.
I would be surprised if Gapes gets much of a swing. He’s probably standing mostly to get the payoff for being a losing MP. He was particularly popular in his heavily Muslim local party,
Tories have to be slightly concerned that if they turn out in massive numbers, especially if flat cap Fred has a wobble at the last minute.
What I find really interesting is if the anti-semitism stuff was say about trans people, Corbyn would be more toxic among the students than Nish Kumar stand-up routine. But discrimination against the Jews, no impact. I find that extremely worrying.
I think that students are sophisticated enough to recognise that the anti-semitism of Jezza is more akin to the anti-semitism of early 20th Century Britain than 1930's Germany.
The difference of degree is the distinction between Enid Blighton's golliwogs and a KKK lynching. Both repellent, but only one is a mortal danger.
Do you have ANY inkling as to how repulsive and weasly your posts increasingly sound?
Traditionally we welcome new posters, but if you're going to make a habit of slagging off long-standing respected posters like Foxy (who is a LibDem, by the way), then you might like to take your custom elsewhere.
I am a long standing poster but had to change my posting name at the time of the shenanigans over vanilla.
But thank you for your input.
Most PB’ers in such circumstances choose a username that reminds us of their previous profile. With notable exceptions.
" It is a fight the Tories are winning, according to a poll for The Economist by Survation. They stand at 44% as Labour limps along on 29%, down 20 points from the last election (see chart). Having been held by Labour since 1935, Wrexham seems ready to turn blue next week."
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Love a good constituency poll. Think the MRP has Cons leading by 4 so could be understating Tory gains in leave heartlands (and overstating them in remain areas), could mean Tory lead has increased in past week or could just be another dodgy constituency poll.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Students turn into people like you or me. I wouldn't be concerned.
The spread of antisemitism across the West is a real thing and extremely worrying. It has always been among the far right, but among the far left and Islamism is now well rooted. France in particular it is really bad.
I appreciate it is real and worrying but I don't believe the UK is at particular risk. It is of course worrying that one of the major political parties is lead by an anti-Semite but I don't believe there is a real threat to the Jewish Community in this country.
It is not what the Jewish community seem to think. I am talking about wider than simply Labour's antisemitism problem.
This is all getting a bit much.
I live with a small fragment of the Jewish Community. She's an intelligent woman who has researched the subject and has contributed regularly to the Jewish Chronicle. She doesn't like Corbyn but she doesn't think Krystallnacht is around the corner, nor has she experienced any meaningful impact of AS personally. (Misogyny yes, the excesses of the PQ definitely, but AS....not really.)
Sure the Labour Party has a problem. Sure it's right to raise it. But enough with it now. It's being done to death and the motivation behind it is beginning to look suspect.
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
Most Muslims live in safe Labour seats.
Which seat will have the biggest swing against the incumbent MP this election ? I reckon this is a two horse race between Mike Gapes and Roger Godsiff.
I think Gapes will edge it, Godsiff probably more in touch with his local voters and so he'll retain a bigger rump personal vote in Hall Green.
Gapes will probably win the prize. He’s only standing for the £payoff. He wasn’t popular with his Muslim dominated local party before he resigned, and he’s been such since his outspoken support for Blair’s Iraq war. He spent his time as an MP enjoying junkets and lunches and pursuing matters of foreign affairs other than those that concern his constituents. The irony is that he’ll be replaced by a white male Corbynite who will be as out of touch with the local community as he was.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I think you’re reading far too much into the betting. And there’s no sign of any polling today . We keep hearing about Ipsos Mori but that hasn’t even been trailed on their twitter page .
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
Most Muslims live in safe Labour seats.
Define Irony Boris aka Ali Kemal Bey , great grandson of Turkish Muslims, is fighting to protect the UK from ? Letter boxes and immigrants!!!
Have you watched Boris Johnson's 2006 documentary "The Dream of Rome"? His basic message is that the EU can't achieve the level of unity and brand loyalty that the Roman Empire did. He gets wobbly though when after having praised Rome's integration of those from outside its core as a strength, he then identifies too much immigration as a main cause of its weakness some centuries later. Nor could I figure out why increasing bureaucratisation beginning under Diocletian and immigration of a weakening kind, as opposed to the earlier strengthening kind, should be understood as necessarily bound up with each other. By the end it is not clear why the EU can't be Rome 2 given that according to him there will always be those who want it to be. Sure, they haven't got an emperor or much in the way of unifying beliefs or cultural practices, or a European football team, but why can't they get all of these? In the film he is in favour of a strong united Europe, but not on the political or high-tax or public welfare side (surprise surprise) - an attitude founded of course on the assumption of a polarisation between economics and politics which is highly questionable. Interestingly he strongly advocates that the entity he wants should include Turkey. (He mentions his greatgrandfather.)
That seems a tad overblown. Even for commie students.
Do you know many students? It looks plausible to me (sand fits with the general pattern that highly-educasted people tend to vote Labour - it's a university thing, not just a student thing, I suspect though you'd be comforted if you saw the certainty to vote.
Yes, my nephews. And I was one myself 15 years ago.
I’m not denying students favour Labour, but I’d expect 50-60% in line with other polls.
Over 70% seems absolutely huge to me, and the Tory/LD share way lower than captured elsewhere, and I’d be very surprised if they were that monolithic in the current climate for Labour.
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I think you’re reading far too much into the betting. And there’s no sign of any polling today . We keep hearing about Ipsos Mori but that hasn’t even been trailed on their twitter page .
Perhaps. The difference now compared to say a week ago is serious money is required to move the market. However, it could just be city types playing the market.
John Healey's team (Wentworth and Dearne !!) handing out leaflets to parents outside school gates this evening . Anyone else ever come across this method of distribution ?
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
Just watched it through. Jesus. That and the chap who says “well the Jews have all the money and power” as if it’s something we all know to be true.
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
4 Brexit MEP's announcing they are leaving the Brexit party
They clearly sniff a chance of a no deal exit when Bozo fails to land a trade deal next year. You’d think that these defections from far right to Tory would worry those people who are supporting Bozo purely because he says he has a soft Brexit ready to go.
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
IMO, with Jezza it comes down to his simplistic view of the world there being the oppressed vs oppressors and he sees it as his duty to side with the oppressed and in doing so is willing to excuse / ignore their views when it come to things like the Jews or Homophobia.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
Brexit was a cunning ploy, executed by the English aristocracy such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Cameroon. They wanted to take back the powers from Brussels, so that only they exploit England, like their ancestors did for centuries. Also avoid financial scrutiny, with their off shore banking scams and tax dodging. The elderly and pensioners supported it, for nostalgic reasons as well as they had no immediate financial repercussions. Many just jumped on the anti- immigrant / anti foreigner bandwagon. The real people who suffered, due to mass European immigration were the working classes. Who were anyways shafted by austerity. After Brexit, the worst to be affected will still be the working classes. As they now will have austerity due to Tories ideology plus another austerity from Brexit economic slump. As well as immigration still at the same levels. Only instead from Europe, it will be from the commonwealth such as Pakistan and Nigeria.
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
Yes, for the first time I can truly understand how open, dangerous anti-Semitism can take root in a civilised, liberal western nation. And it is my nation. Shameful.
I do not understand how anyone can watch that video and still vote for Corbyn's Labour. They need to be defeated soundly, so that Jeremy can swiftly retire and take his horrible views and cronies with him. Because we desperately need a functional but honourable Opposition.
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
An excellent article. It is shame that the Conservative Party has been taken over by people who have no understanding what it means to be politically conservative.
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
It's perfectly possible to observe that the world, and Britain, has got vastly and more unsustainably unequal since the 1980s, without being an antisemite, as many in Labour aren't. Of the 20 richest people currently living in the world, three are jewish - just 15%. The minor over-representation here is no more than the Jewish over-representation in academia, for instance.
That seems a tad overblown. Even for commie students.
Do you know many students? It looks plausible to me (sand fits with the general pattern that highly-educasted people tend to vote Labour - it's a university thing, not just a student thing, I suspect though you'd be comforted if you saw the certainty to vote.
Yes, my nephews. And I was one myself 15 years ago.
I’m not denying students favour Labour, but I’d expect 50-60% in line with other polls.
Over 70% seems absolutely huge to me, and the Tory/LD share way lower than captured elsewhere, and I’d be very surprised if they were that monolithic in the current climate for Labour.
They certainly weren’t in my day.
It's not huge given that in 2017 an estimated 61.5% of voters under 40 (source) voted Labour. 70% Labour among u40 graduates and undergraduates and 50% among other u40s wouldn't be surprising.
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
This actually became scary as the video went on. "Well the Jews do this every time, every election the Jews do this"
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
Yes, for the first time I can truly understand how open, dangerous anti-Semitism can take root in a civilised, liberal western nation. And it is my nation. Shameful.
I do not understand how anyone can watch that video and still vote for Corbyn's Labour. They need to be defeated soundly, so that Jeremy can swiftly retire and take his horrible views and cronies with him. Because we desperately need a functional but honourable Opposition.
Yes this is all stuff I had previously only read about in textbooks.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If Labour are losing their rotten boroughs they are in real trouble. It often gets forgotten that this election is being fought on boundaries that greatly favour Labour and which will presumably be (finally) rectified in the next Parliament to something nearer fairness.
Wrexham is one of the smallest constituencies in the UK so a smaller number of voters shifting can make a big change in the swing.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
If they've sampled it correctly the error bounds will be +/- 5%. Which gives Labour a max of 34% here and the Tories a minimum of 39%. Also refused/don't know excluded and they might help Labour out a touch.
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
The issue with the euro is partially due to the chaos in Germany caused by the SDP party election and the economic chaos in France. However, I agree that the expectation of a Tory majority is also a factor.
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
Well looking at the polls one can understand the confidence. If the polls going into Election Day are ten plus points clear then I think it’s game over .
But anything under that is less so , the Lib Dems and Greens are likely to be squeezed on the day , and in 2017 Labour overperformed their final poll numbers by large amounts barring the Survation .
Labour have zero chance of a majority , and of being the largest party . However they don’t need to . Anything under a 6 point lead in terms of vote share on the day for the Tories and then it becomes much more uncertain .
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
How about addressing the issue rather than going off about Guido?
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
This actually became scary as the video went on. "Well the Jews do this every time, every election the Jews do this"
Wow.
Yes, my reaction was the same. From puzzlement to shock to actual fear. Horrific
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
It's perfectly possible to observe that the world, and Britain, has got vastly and more unsustainably unequal since the 1980s, without being an antisemite, as many in Labour aren't. Of the 20 richest people currently living in the world, three are jewish - just 15%. The minor over-representation here is no more than the Jewish over-represention in academia, for instance.
Posting that last statistic (I have no idea whether it's true) and extending it, speaks volumes.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
Most Muslims live in safe Labour seats.
Define Irony Boris aka Ali Kemal Bey , great grandson of Turkish Muslims, is fighting to protect the UK from ? Letter boxes and immigrants!!!
Have you watched Boris Johnson's 2006 documentary "The Dream of Rome"? His basic message is that the EU can't achieve the level of unity and brand loyalty that the Roman Empire did. He gets wobbly though when after having praised Rome's integration of those from outside its core as a strength, he then identifies too much immigration as a main cause of its weakness some centuries later. Nor could I figure out why increasing bureaucratisation beginning under Diocletian and immigration of a weakening kind, as opposed to the earlier strengthening kind, should be understood as necessarily bound up with each other. By the end it is not clear why the EU can't be Rome 2 given that according to him there will always be those who want it to be. Sure, they haven't got an emperor or much in the way of unifying beliefs or cultural practices, or a European football team, but why can't they get all of these? In the film he is in favour of a strong united Europe, but not on the political or high-tax or public welfare side (surprise surprise) - an attitude founded of course on the assumption of a polarisation between economics and politics which is highly questionable. Interestingly he strongly advocates that the entity he wants should include Turkey. (He mentions his greatgrandfather.)
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson Ali Kemel Bay- Well well At that time he wanted to be Mayor of London, so like a chameleon, it suited him to be pro-EU. He was very pro EU as Mayor of London, or else he would have lost. Ironically he got the London nomination, thanks to the backing of his dear friend David Cameron. The same friend he stabbed in the back, when he realised that Brexit would propel him to power and the PMs chair. At no given time, before 2016, was Boris anti Eu. Even his own family were pro EU and disliked his treachery and double speak wrt Brexit Sad to see an intelligent country being fooled by such a cheap charlatan!! You know a country is on the downslide, when charlatans like Jacob Rees Mogg, Prit Patel, Sajid Javid and Gove are in power!! Sad
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
The heart of anti-Semitism in Labour, and especially at the top, is that it is inextricably bound-up with the official party line that the economy is run by a sinister cabal of billionaires and bankers. One of the complaints in the JLM nails it exactly: 7.4 A member reports that, at a CLP meeting, other members defended an individual who repeated an antisemitic trope that it is "the over-representation of Jews in the capitalist ruling class that gives the Israel-Zionist lobby its power".
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
It's perfectly possible to observe that the world, and Britain, has got vastly and more unsustainably unequal since the 1980s, without being an antisemite, as many in Labour aren't. Of the 20 richest people currently living in the world, three are jewish - just 15%. The minor over-representation here is no more than the Jewish over-represention in academia, for instance.
Posting that last statistic (I have no idea whether it's true) and extending it, speaks volumes.
No it doesn't. My own wife and children are Jewish. Jewish people are no more over-represented among the well-off than among the educated and literate, because of millennia of talmudic tradition.
30 seats apparently at risk because of Muslim vote, meaning potentially Johnson stays still. The Islamophobia threat seems to have been ignored.
Most Muslims live in safe Labour seats.
Define Irony Boris aka Ali Kemal Bey , great grandson of Turkish Muslims, is fighting to protect the UK from ? Letter boxes and immigrants!!!
Have you watched Boris Johnson's 2006 documentary "The Dream of Rome"? His basic message is that the EU can't achieve the level of unity and brand loyalty that the Roman Empire did. He gets wobbly though when after having praised Rome's integration of those from outside its core as a strength, he then identifies too much immigration as a main cause of its weakness some centuries later. Nor could I figure out why increasing bureaucratisation beginning under Diocletian and immigration of a weakening kind, as opposed to the earlier strengthening kind, should be understood as necessarily bound up with each other. By the end it is not clear why the EU can't be Rome 2 given that according to him there will always be those who want it to be. Sure, they haven't got an emperor or much in the way of unifying beliefs or cultural practices, or a European football team, but why can't they get all of these? In the film he is in favour of a strong united Europe, but not on the political or high-tax or public welfare side (surprise surprise) - an attitude founded of course on the assumption of a polarisation between economics and politics which is highly questionable. Interestingly he strongly advocates that the entity he wants should include Turkey. (He mentions his greatgrandfather.)
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson Ali Kemel Bay- Well well At that time he wanted to be Mayor of London, so like a chameleon, it suited him to be pro-EU. He was very pro EU as Mayor of London, or else he would have lost. Ironically he got the London nomination, thanks to the backing of his dear friend David Cameron. The same friend he stabbed in the back, when he realised that Brexit would propel him to power and the PMs chair. At no given time, before 2016, was Boris anti Eu. Even his own family were pro EU and disliked his treachery and double speak wrt Brexit Sad to see an intelligent country being fooled by such a cheap charlatan!! You know a country is on the downslide, when charlatans like Jacob Rees Mogg, Prit Patel, Sajid Javid and Gove are in power!! Sad
Betfair still drifting this morning...I think we are going to see an iffy poll for the Tories.
I've noticed this, but it is no significant change from this morning at least so could just be noise.
And the last 2 times it came in to under 1.4 the next poll was a crap one for the tories, I don't think theres a correlation
Sterling is now at its highest level against the Euro since 2017. I really don't think that would be the case if there was not a fair degree of confidence that we will have a (tory) majority government after the years of indecision. The scale of money involved in that is multiple times the betting market.
Well looking at the polls one can understand the confidence. If the polls going into Election Day are ten plus points clear then I think it’s game over .
But anything under that is less so , the Lib Dems and Greens are likely to be squeezed on the day , and in 2017 Labour overperformed their final poll numbers by large amounts barring the Survation .
Labour have zero chance of a majority , and of being the largest party . However they don’t need to . Anything under a 6 point lead in terms of vote share on the day for the Tories and then it becomes much more uncertain .
The lead seems pretty consistently around 10% at the moment and for the last 10 days. This is a big change from 2017. Another change may well be that the Tories outperform this time instead of Labour. If they do we are still in landslide territory. This is either the biggest polling disaster in the slightly dodgy history of polling or a Tory majority is still being underestimated by the betting markets, scarred by 2017.
When cornered, Corbynites go for real, hard, overt anti-Semitism. Abhorrent. We should all be ashamed of letting this fester. I can't imagine what a Jewish child watching this might feel.
Disturbing and depressing.
Isn't it? I can't get it out of my head. It's mind-boggling. The kids at the end who simply can't cope with the truth, and literally run away - are they worse than the horrible bigot with the sign saying No to Bigotry?
Jesus F Christ.
This actually became scary as the video went on. "Well the Jews do this every time, every election the Jews do this"
Wow.
Yes, my reaction was the same. From puzzlement to shock to actual fear. Horrific
That's clearly what the globalist Zionist rulers of the world want you think ;-)
All rather stupid. They will impeach with no Republican support, he will be acquitted in the senate with no Republican dissent and then the democrats have shot their only bullet and have to explain to the electorate why theyve done nothing but chase impeachment for 4 years
This is what makes me want to leave the country. Jews have no future here.
Stop being such a drama queen.
A month ago I would have agreed with you.
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Corbyn and co are undoubtedly a vile mob, almost as bad as Boris, but to rely on anything from Guido (aka Dipso Staines) is a joke. The man is an alcoholic with tight links to Russia via other companies in which he has a finger (through Russian Embassy contracts) and his wife (who has held senior positions with the London branch of a very dodgy Russian bank).
Guido has just taken a video made by someone else, it doesn't originate with him. The original is on YouTube
Ever heard of editing? I do not know how the video has been edited and I do not know how Longmuir is related to Guido. But I know enough not to trust anything without more information - especially Guido.
That seems a tad overblown. Even for commie students.
Do you know many students? It looks plausible to me (sand fits with the general pattern that highly-educasted people tend to vote Labour - it's a university thing, not just a student thing, I suspect though you'd be comforted if you saw the certainty to vote.
Yes, my nephews. And I was one myself 15 years ago.
I’m not denying students favour Labour, but I’d expect 50-60% in line with other polls.
Over 70% seems absolutely huge to me, and the Tory/LD share way lower than captured elsewhere, and I’d be very surprised if they were that monolithic in the current climate for Labour.
They certainly weren’t in my day.
It's not huge given that in 2017 an estimated 61.5% of voters under 40 (source) voted Labour. 70% Labour among u40 graduates and undergraduates and 50% among other u40s wouldn't be surprising.
That shows 66% of 18-19 yr olds and 62% of 20-24 yr olds voting Labour off a national base of 40%.
This seems to show 71% of all students (almost all will be under 25) off a 34-35% base (max).
Have young people really further moved heavily towards Labour this time, over 2017?
I’m not so sure. Cyclefree’s anecdotes about her children bear this up too.
Comments
Re Muslim vote
Boris aka Ali Kemal Bey , great grandson of Turkish Muslims, is fighting to protect the UK from ? Letter boxes and immigrants!!!
For example, a dear friend who you know loves Cliff Richard - such that anti Cliff comment genuinely upsets them - asks you what you think of his latest xmas single.
You hate it. Do you say so?
Now I don't. Watch that incredible video on Guido that I linked. It is brutal.
Corbyn and Co have normalised a very nasty, insidious form of anti-Semitism. And once it is normalised it often gets much, much worse. This we know from history.
Carnage for Labour in north Wales
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1202545694571143168?s=20
I think Gapes will edge it, Godsiff probably more in touch with his local voters and so he'll retain a bigger rump personal vote in Hall Green.
I live with a small fragment of the Jewish Community. She's an intelligent woman who has researched the subject and has contributed regularly to the Jewish Chronicle. She doesn't like Corbyn but she doesn't think Krystallnacht is around the corner, nor has she experienced any meaningful impact of AS personally. (Misogyny yes, the excesses of the PQ definitely, but AS....not really.)
Sure the Labour Party has a problem. Sure it's right to raise it. But enough with it now. It's being done to death and the motivation behind it is beginning to look suspect.
"Good grief. I knew Corbyn was a communist and a terrorist, but not watching the Queen's speech? Treason. If he doesn't watch Escape to Victory, 633 Squadron and The Dambusters I think the Beefeaters have reasonable cause to lock him in the tower."
" It is a fight the Tories are winning, according to a poll for The Economist by Survation. They stand at 44% as Labour limps along on 29%, down 20 points from the last election (see chart). Having been held by Labour since 1935, Wrexham seems ready to turn blue next week."
But thank you for your input.
The Corbynites condemn "anti-Semitism" when they think it comes from Boris. When told these are Corbyn's words and actions, they squirm excruciatingly, and then some of them reach, oh so easily, for classic anti-Semitic tropes. "The Jews have all the money, they are manipulating us".
It's not so much that they believe this stuff, tho that's is bad, it's that they feel able to calmly say it on video. It's like hearing overt racism in the Deep South in old videos from the Jim Crow era.
Until they are formally exposed and the careers of the dozens of racists at the core of labour are ended it needs hammering day after day. And labour supporters need to be made aware they are voting for racial division and to own that choice.
(1 - Chipping Barnet Con 47% (Hendon, Putney highly correlated, remainder Tory seats generally correlated)) * (1 - Glasgow East SNP 22% (Airdrie Shotts correlated))
= 6/4
Either way Wrexham looks very blue right now.
Jesus F Christ.
Gapes will probably win the prize. He’s only standing for the £payoff. He wasn’t popular with his Muslim dominated local party before he resigned, and he’s been such since his outspoken support for Blair’s Iraq war. He spent his time as an MP enjoying junkets and lunches and pursuing matters of foreign affairs other than those that concern his constituents. The irony is that he’ll be replaced by a white male Corbynite who will be as out of touch with the local community as he was.
I’m not denying students favour Labour, but I’d expect 50-60% in line with other polls.
Over 70% seems absolutely huge to me, and the Tory/LD share way lower than captured elsewhere, and I’d be very surprised if they were that monolithic in the current climate for Labour.
They certainly weren’t in my day.
But i doubt it....
Anyone else ever come across this method of distribution ?
Add to that the deeply-rooted anti-Americanism of Corbyn and the hard left, and therefore hatred of Israel, and you can easily see how 'for the many not the few' morphs into the sort of classic anti-Semitism which was seen in the 30s not only in Germany, but also in the US and elsewhere.
It is undoubtedly sinister: the entire Labour platform at this election is based on the idea that billionaires have grabbed all the loot, and the incoming Labour government only needs to shake them down and the 'many' will suddenly be well-off. Anyone pointing out the flaws in this extreme naivety is by definiition in thrall to the Zionist-dominated ruling capitalist class.
The real people who suffered, due to mass European immigration were the working classes. Who were anyways shafted by austerity.
After Brexit, the worst to be affected will still be the working classes. As they now will have austerity due to Tories ideology plus another austerity from Brexit economic slump. As well as immigration still at the same levels. Only instead from Europe, it will be from the commonwealth such as Pakistan and Nigeria.
I do not understand how anyone can watch that video and still vote for Corbyn's Labour. They need to be defeated soundly, so that Jeremy can swiftly retire and take his horrible views and cronies with him. Because we desperately need a functional but honourable Opposition.
What we have here is the Tories unchanged but Labour losing 40% of their vote to Plaid, BXP and Lib Dem. I assume some Tories have also gone BXP but that has been evened out by Lab to Con switchers.
Obviously there is no Plaid to take votes off Labour in the majority of seats but if this pattern was repeated in the marginals and Labour's vote was down even 25% then they will lose 60+ seats to the Tories.
If they lost 40% of their vote then it's landslide territory.
Sadly as it's only a constituency poll of 400 people it's not going to be as definitive as I'd like!
Wow.
He is a true blue Tory of course.
But yes it seems a good poll for the blues.
Do I care about either? Not really. Both are expected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITCX2mDiFzE&feature=youtu.be
But anything under that is less so , the Lib Dems and Greens are likely to be squeezed on the day , and in 2017 Labour overperformed their final poll numbers by large amounts barring the Survation .
Labour have zero chance of a majority , and of being the largest party . However they don’t need to . Anything under a 6 point lead in terms of vote share on the day for the Tories and then it becomes much more uncertain .
At that time he wanted to be Mayor of London, so like a chameleon, it suited him to be pro-EU. He was very pro EU as Mayor of London, or else he would have lost. Ironically he got the London nomination, thanks to the backing of his dear friend David Cameron. The same friend he stabbed in the back, when he realised that Brexit would propel him to power and the PMs chair. At no given time, before 2016, was Boris anti Eu. Even his own family were pro EU and disliked his treachery and double speak wrt Brexit
Sad to see an intelligent country being fooled by such a cheap charlatan!! You know a country is on the downslide, when charlatans like Jacob Rees Mogg, Prit Patel, Sajid Javid and Gove are in power!! Sad
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1202593193046552578?s=20
This seems to show 71% of all students (almost all will be under 25) off a 34-35% base (max).
Have young people really further moved heavily towards Labour this time, over 2017?
I’m not so sure. Cyclefree’s anecdotes about her children bear this up too.