No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
But there is more to squeeze, where as the Tories have hit the ceiling. They aren't getting more than 42%. Where as Labour can definitely get 36%, easily.
Corbyn believes in a lot of things that can`t be verified by evidence. His brain doesn`t work that way. It`s truly terrifying.
This is my biggest problem with Jezza. He has a particular set of beliefs, he has had them for 40 years and nothing, absolutely nothing with change them.
It is quite different from say I have a general philosophy about life, but I am open to adjusting that given new evidence.
Corbyn has changed many views, and has implemented many policies that differ from his views. He has objectively demonstrated changes away from his core ideas in line with other wider people including the party, as can be seen with his shift on referendum, Trident, tax, and coal.
Whereas Johnson has no beliefs, simply self-serving views formed-by and changed according to, what's in his interest, regardless of their impact on society. Dangerous man.
I`m not Tory supporter, but suspect that you, like many others, have formed an unfair and inaccurate regard of Bozza. Maybe the post-Brexit Bozza will surprise you?
How is my assessment unfair or inaccurate please?
I'm not a Tory or Labour supporter and have never voted or supported either, and won't at this election. I've engaged with Johnson briefly in GLA. I've watched him as Mayor and in Government, and read a lot that he's written.
My opinion is based on his (lack of) policy, his shifting positions, his previous clearly-stated stances (on gender, sexuality, environment, race), his obvious failure to grasp policy issues and details, and his clear lack of concern, and his very clear unethical Machiavellianism.
I would agree one part of one point you made - I can't fail to be surprised by Johnson if he wins a majority, since he hasn't actually made clear what he intends on most issues including Brexit or Climate Change, indeed he doesn't know until he figures what suits him. I doubt the surprise will be pleasant though.
Any pledges he and his party have made are rendered meaningless by their utter failure to deliver or even try to deliver on previous pledges (e.g. housing, climate) and punctuated by the fact that Johnson and his cabinet are verifiable liars.
I wonder if YouGov actually foresaw the polls narrowing further when they published their seat projection, hence the warning about 7 points and below. The most recent polls seem remarkably intune with that thinking.
I've been saying the polls with continue to narrow with Labour peaking this weekend (suspect ComRes will have have the Con lead down to 5% on Saturday evening) then it starts widening again next week.
Such an injunction cannot exist because if it did there would be no way an interviewer could ask him about how many children he has. And they have. Ergo no injunction or super injunction exists
The question itself does not become unlawful. But even if it did if there were a super injunction it would as a consequence be impossible to know that there was an injunction, ergo no questioner would know this. And if they cannot and do not know something they cannot be expected to tailor their questioning around it.
Every GE people moan at Mike for such things. MRP is not magically accurate, so long as he explains why he thinks differently it's no biggie.
I didn't link the tweet as a criticism but I am surprised.
Notwithstanding the MRP, the 2017 result for Battersea was:
Labour 25,292 Conservative 22,876 Liberal Democrats 4,401
It's depressing that anyone is arguing that Smithson's letter is anything other than a grotesque misrepresentation.
I don`t understand. LibDems are 20/1 in that seat. They have no chance. Unless I`m missing something, Mike seems to be acting for the benefit of the Labour Party, not the LDs.
Mike is a commited LibDem. But he is going to lose his credibility with these leaflets. If the LibDems are taking his name in vain, I feel sorry for him, but not entirely surprised - it is their modus operandi. If he has given his consent to them, then sorry, but it is a grave error of judgment.
I guess he can campaign as anyone can. But it`s the downright lie in the first sentence of his leaflet that gets me.
By contrast, it was the very final words of this leaflet which convinced me that Mike himself was not its author. I simply don't see OGH describing himself as a "Polling and Elections Expert" ... I mean, come on, how many people are so self-conceited to describe their occupation as being "Expert" in anything? Even if someone were so inclined, their credibility would be completely shot as soon as the reader saw that Mike was seriously attempting to argue that the LibDems could overtake the Conservatives who secured more than FIVE TIMES as many votes as the LibDems at the 2017 GE ... absolutely ridiculous!
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
But there is more to squeeze, where as the Tories have hit the ceiling. They aren't getting more than 42%. Where as Labour can definitely get 36%, easily.
That is what I expect to happen but that won't be enough to stop a small minority. They need to make 37% minimum unless the Tory share falls away.
Look at how close May got to a majority (6 seats) and that was with a mere 2.5% lead.
It's extremely disquieting that Boris seems to be adopting a 1970s Labour-style position on state aid and public procurement. Not only is this an extremely bad idea in itself - throwing away the hard-earned gains of the Thatcher years, which have proved so beneficial - it's also potentially disastrous in relation to getting a trade deal with the EU. This will cross a red line for the EU, and makes a no-deal crash out more likely. The irony is that the EU position on state aid is a British, and especially a Conservative, triumph. How the hell did we end up in a situation when it's a nominally Conservative PM threatening to torpedo it?
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
But there is more to squeeze, where as the Tories have hit the ceiling. They aren't getting more than 42%. Where as Labour can definitely get 36%, easily.
Which is useless in the majority of seats the Tories are forecast to gain with Yougov MRP which are Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party higher than a negligible LD vote and the Tories can squeeze the Brexit Party vote there
🚨 New policy: Tories are pledging to introduce new state aid rules after Brexit:
“We will back British business by introducing a new state aid regime which makes it faster and easier for the government to intervene to protect jobs when an industry is in trouble.”
I wonder if YouGov actually foresaw the polls narrowing further when they published their seat projection, hence the warning about 7 points and below. The most recent polls seem remarkably intune with that thinking.
It wasn't "foreseeing". They showed it on a slide how there had been a swing to Labour of about 30 seats in their model over the course of the week leading up to the release of it. So it only made sense to say, if this continues...
NPower today announced they're cutting 4500 jobs. The NHS is clearly up for grabs in US trade negotiations. The railways are a complete mess. These things matter to people.
But the issue is whether people believe Corbyn and his £100bn spending splurge will make things better or worse....
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
But there is more to squeeze, where as the Tories have hit the ceiling. They aren't getting more than 42%. Where as Labour can definitely get 36%, easily.
Well fingers crossed that 42 to 36 will be an improvement on 42 to 40 last time then.
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Depends if polls are underestimating labour again. I'd say yes, on the basis that that they were so low to start with shows people have reason to be a shy labour voter. I think correcting such things is hard.
It's extremely disquieting that Boris seems to be adopting a 1970s Labour-style position on state aid and public procurement. Not only is this an extremely bad idea in itself - throwing away the hard-earned gains of the Thatcher years, which have proved so beneficial - it's also potentially disastrous in relation to getting a trade deal with the EU. This will cross a red line for the EU, and makes a no-deal crash out more likely. The irony is that the EU position on state aid is a British, and especially a Conservative, triumph. How the hell did we end up in a situation when it's a nominally Conservative PM threatening to torpedo it?
Honest question - do Germany and the rest of the EU obey the rules?
It's extremely disquieting that Boris seems to be adopting a 1970s Labour-style position on state aid and public procurement. Not only is this an extremely bad idea in itself - throwing away the hard-earned gains of the Thatcher years, which have proved so beneficial - it's also potentially disastrous in relation to getting a trade deal with the EU. This will cross a red line for the EU, and makes a no-deal crash out more likely. The irony is that the EU position on state aid is a British, and especially a Conservative, triumph. How the hell did we end up in a situation when it's a nominally Conservative PM threatening to torpedo it?
It is scary how capitalism appears again not to be defended. The thing that has brought huge progress across the world and supposedly the core of the Tories, who are now conceding ground this ground to the madness of Corbynomics.
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
Mass hysteria, as usual, over a single opinion poll. We've gone from a landslide to hung parliament in the space of a week. **Sigh**.
Mass hysteria again about people overreacting to a single poll, when even if it is overreacting it is overreacting to the trend of polls of which this is a part, not reacting to the poll alone without context. *sigh*. Buts sure let's pretend its about one poll.
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Depends if polls are underestimating labour again. I'd say yes, on the basis that that they were so low to start with shows people have reason to be a shy labour voter. I think correcting such things is hard.
More likely to be shy Tories who've been lifelong Labour. Say nowt to anyone - including the pollsters. Deny voting Tory to your friends and family - just in case it all goes wrong.
I do not see it if you take into account canvassing comments and especially evidence from within labour of its collapsed northern vote
I cannot see labour preventing substantial losses in the north and while I am not in the 68 majority predictions as of now and with postal votes already going in I would expect a modest majority for Boris
This GE was Johnsons to win.
All he needed was a few centrist policies
He has made the same mistake as May in 2017
Let Lab make the running and keep heaping abuse on Corbyn.
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
I know you're desperate for the Socialist revolution but if Labour have run such an amzing campaign why have the polls showed almost zero change in a month?
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
NPower today announced they're cutting 4500 jobs. The NHS is clearly up for grabs in US trade negotiations. The railways are a complete mess. These things matter to people.
But the issue is whether people believe Corbyn and his £100bn spending splurge will make things better or worse....
It's extremely disquieting that Boris seems to be adopting a 1970s Labour-style position on state aid and public procurement. Not only is this an extremely bad idea in itself - throwing away the hard-earned gains of the Thatcher years, which have proved so beneficial - it's also potentially disastrous in relation to getting a trade deal with the EU. This will cross a red line for the EU, and makes a no-deal crash out more likely. The irony is that the EU position on state aid is a British, and especially a Conservative, triumph. How the hell did we end up in a situation when it's a nominally Conservative PM threatening to torpedo it?
Honest question - do Germany and the rest of the EU obey the rules?
I wonder if YouGov actually foresaw the polls narrowing further when they published their seat projection, hence the warning about 7 points and below. The most recent polls seem remarkably intune with that thinking.
It wasn't "foreseeing". They showed it on a slide how there had been a swing to Labour of about 30 seats in their model over the course of the week leading up to the release of it. So it only made sense to say, if this continues...
Yes - but I wonder if the implication was that when they published it, they were already seeing further progress in that direction.
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Depends if polls are underestimating labour again. I'd say yes, on the basis that that they were so low to start with shows people have reason to be a shy labour voter. I think correcting such things is hard.
There's something very odd about this poll. While the beneficiaries have gained a combined 4% additional share of the vote, the LibDems, being the only loser, have lost only 1% - the big question is therefore what's happened to the missing 3%, or has rounding been taken to its absolute extremes?
NPower today announced they're cutting 4500 jobs. The NHS is clearly up for grabs in US trade negotiations. The railways are a complete mess. These things matter to people.
But the issue is whether people believe Corbyn and his £100bn spending splurge will make things better or worse....
You missed a nought of his splurge.....
The BBC and IFS forgot to mention that. If you were a casual observer, with the IFS saying both Tory and Labour plans were BS, Labour's plan didn't seem so bad, as they only talking about the 80 odd bn.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them. One man you hate or the future of your country. Not a difficult choice.
The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" was always going to be a tricky sell for the Conservatives. It's remarkable how the penny still hasn't dropped that they might need to compromise with the electorate.
The penny seems to have dropped at least a couple of inches with the SCons that the electorate also seem to hate and despise them.
LOL, how desperate can Tories get, asking people to vote for them even if they hate them.
I've seen this argument before and I dont get it. It is desperate but it's also honest and given the prevalence of negative campaigning, of encouraging people to vote against someone not for, why wouldn't they want votes from those that hate them and those that like them?
Perhaps if the morons had some policies that people might want to vote for. What kind of nutjob stands on a platform of you hate them so vote for me, I am useless but you might not hate me.
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
They can as Yougov MRP showed the vast majority of Tory gains forecast to be in Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party third not the LDs
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
The more people see of Bozo they less they like him .
I’m not a Corbyn fan , both are deeply flawed characters but I absolutely detest Johnson in a way I never detested May .
I respected May, I thought she was treated absolutely terribly by her own party, even if her policies were pretty dreadful.
Her big problem was going for hard Brexit. If she'd have gone for EEA she would have got it through on Labour votes.
You think the backstop where the UK would be stuck in the EU customs union and trading on EU rules unless or until the EU agreed otherwise was a hard Brexit? Aww bless 😂😂😂😂
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
But there is more to squeeze, where as the Tories have hit the ceiling. They aren't getting more than 42%. Where as Labour can definitely get 36%, easily.
Which is useless in the majority of seats the Tories are forecast to gain with Yougov MRP which are Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party higher than a negligible LD vote and the Tories can squeeze the Brexit Party vote there
Is there anywhere where you can take the YouGov MRP model and do our own numbers, like the flavible user predictions? I think the Tory ceiling is 42 and Labs is 35, so was wondering what that would like, and variants thereof.
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
They can as Yougov MRP showed the vast majority of Tory gains forecast to be in Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party third not the LDs
It also showed the majority was based almost entirely on knife edge majorities.
A few people swing the other way, a few more young people turn out to vote, you can easily see how that majority slips away and if they lose seats in Scotland, it's goodbye PM Johnson, hello PM Corbyn
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
Yougov MRP and Panelbase had the Tories holding 12 or 11 of their 13 Scottish seats
Mass hysteria, as usual, over a single opinion poll. We've gone from a landslide to hung parliament in the space of a week. **Sigh**.
Every single poll is showing the gap narrowing. Traditional Labour are coming home. Always do.
I do find it amusing how much certainty individuals can discern from polls. You're even predicting the motiviations of 'returning Labour voters'. If your guess turns out to be accurate, it will be the most counter-intuitive election of all time, because the traditional Labour voters you seem to have a psychic connection with loathe Jeremy Corbyn.
Is there anywhere where you can take the YouGov MRP model and do our own numbers, like the flavible user predictions? I think the Tory ceiling is 42 and Labs is 35, so was wondering what that would like, and variants thereof.
You can add a few percentage points from Brexit Party on to the Tories potential ceiling.
It's extremely disquieting that Boris seems to be adopting a 1970s Labour-style position on state aid and public procurement. Not only is this an extremely bad idea in itself - throwing away the hard-earned gains of the Thatcher years, which have proved so beneficial - it's also potentially disastrous in relation to getting a trade deal with the EU. This will cross a red line for the EU, and makes a no-deal crash out more likely. The irony is that the EU position on state aid is a British, and especially a Conservative, triumph. How the hell did we end up in a situation when it's a nominally Conservative PM threatening to torpedo it?
It is scary how capitalism appears again not to be defended. The thing that has brought huge progress across the world and supposedly the core of the Tories, who are now conceding ground this ground to the madness of Corbynomics.
We've shifted the narrative Comrade. Eco-socialism is the new consensus.
Mass hysteria, as usual, over a single opinion poll. We've gone from a landslide to hung parliament in the space of a week. **Sigh**.
Every single poll is showing the gap narrowing. Traditional Labour are coming home. Always do.
I do find it amusing how much certainty individuals can discern from polls. You're even predicting the motiviations of 'returning Labour voters'. If your guess turns out to be accurate, it will be the most counter-intuitive election of all time, because the traditional Labour voters you seem to have a psychic connection with loathe Jeremy Corbyn.
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
They can as Yougov MRP showed the vast majority of Tory gains forecast to be in Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party third not the LDs
It also showed the majority was based almost entirely on knife edge majorities.
A few people swing the other way, a few more young people turn out to vote, you can easily see how that majority slips away and if they lose seats in Scotland, it's goodbye PM Johnson, hello PM Corbyn
Of the forecast 47 Tory gains, half had Tory leads of 5% or more, enough on their own for a Tory majority.
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
They can as Yougov MRP showed the vast majority of Tory gains forecast to be in Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party third not the LDs
It also showed the majority was based almost entirely on knife edge majorities.
A few people swing the other way, a few more young people turn out to vote, you can easily see how that majority slips away and if they lose seats in Scotland, it's goodbye PM Johnson, hello PM Corbyn
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
Truth does not feature in Tory thinking , just any old guff they can spout
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
Truth does not feature in Tory thinking , just any old guff they can spout
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
They can as Yougov MRP showed the vast majority of Tory gains forecast to be in Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party third not the LDs
It also showed the majority was based almost entirely on knife edge majorities.
A few people swing the other way, a few more young people turn out to vote, you can easily see how that majority slips away and if they lose seats in Scotland, it's goodbye PM Johnson, hello PM Corbyn
Of the forecast 47 Tory gains, half had Tory leads of 5% or more, enough on their own for a Tory majority.
Mass hysteria, as usual, over a single opinion poll. We've gone from a landslide to hung parliament in the space of a week. **Sigh**.
Every single poll is showing the gap narrowing. Traditional Labour are coming home. Always do.
I do find it amusing how much certainty individuals can discern from polls. You're even predicting the motiviations of 'returning Labour voters'. If your guess turns out to be accurate, it will be the most counter-intuitive election of all time, because the traditional Labour voters you seem to have a psychic connection with loathe Jeremy Corbyn.
It's literally what happened in 2017
I thought Labour were regularly hitting 38 or 39% at this stage in 2017 no?
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
They can as Yougov MRP showed the vast majority of Tory gains forecast to be in Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party third not the LDs
It also showed the majority was based almost entirely on knife edge majorities.
A few people swing the other way, a few more young people turn out to vote, you can easily see how that majority slips away and if they lose seats in Scotland, it's goodbye PM Johnson, hello PM Corbyn
Wishful thinking there Mr Battery.
They called it wishful thinking last time, when May was set for her 100 seat majority after breaking down the red wall and Corbyn was set for 180 seats.
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
Yougov MRP and Panelbase had the Tories holding 12 or 11 of their 13 Scottish seats
And Ipsos Mori? 5% swing from Tory to SNP, half their seats gone.
That's another poll with Labour closing the gap, it's on!
Nope it isn't, as it is still Leave seats with negligible LD vote to squeeze which will give Boris his majority
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Labour have dominated the news agendas of this election. That's what is just astonishing about the rubbish tory campaign. They've assumed they can win it by cruising home, based around the idea that Brexit is the driver.
They can as Yougov MRP showed the vast majority of Tory gains forecast to be in Labour Leave seats with the Brexit Party third not the LDs
It also showed the majority was based almost entirely on knife edge majorities.
A few people swing the other way, a few more young people turn out to vote, you can easily see how that majority slips away and if they lose seats in Scotland, it's goodbye PM Johnson, hello PM Corbyn
Of the forecast 47 Tory gains, half had Tory leads of 5% or more, enough on their own for a Tory majority.
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
Can't analyse just based on inferring simple swings. There's clearly movement in several polls (including Greens and Brexit Party and SNP), that movement can be more complex than one imagines - voters from Lab going to Con, voters from Con going to Lab and Lab to Green, it's not simple swings. Thus, it's possible voters are leaving Cons, but we can't see it yet as it's disguised by other movements. We'll find out...
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
The trend has been there for a while, it's just been creeping slower than in 2017 so it's gone more ignored until now. It looks like people are 'coming home' (I hate that phrase) to Labour, if nothing else because they are getting vastly more coverage - good or bad, it's still more coverage - while the Tory campaign has been almost entirely non-existent, just like in 2017.
It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015.
I lumped on a hung parliament yesterday - to soften the blow if/when it happens - and that feels on the money right now.
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
Yougov MRP and Panelbase had the Tories holding 12 or 11 of their 13 Scottish seats
And Ipsos Mori? 5% swing from Tory to SNP, half their seats gone.
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
Truth does not feature in Tory thinking , just any old guff they can spout
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
Yes, at this point both extremes of hung parliament and big Con majority are possible. I think the latter is a more likely "surprise" than the former. Take a look at the 97 Blair landslide vote shares. 43/31/16. Food for thought?
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
Can't analyse just based on inferring simple swings. There's clearly movement in several polls (including Greens and Brexit Party and SNP), that movement can be more complex than one imagines - voters from Lab going to Con, voters from Con going to Lab and Lab to Green, it's not simple swings. Thus, it's possible voters are leaving Cons, but we can't see it yet as it's disguised by other movements. We'll find out...
Highly unlikely but given your communist outburst earlier your analysis is clearly one to avoid.
Mass hysteria, as usual, over a single opinion poll. We've gone from a landslide to hung parliament in the space of a week. **Sigh**.
Every single poll is showing the gap narrowing. Traditional Labour are coming home. Always do.
I do find it amusing how much certainty individuals can discern from polls. You're even predicting the motiviations of 'returning Labour voters'. If your guess turns out to be accurate, it will be the most counter-intuitive election of all time, because the traditional Labour voters you seem to have a psychic connection with loathe Jeremy Corbyn.
It's literally what happened in 2017
I thought Labour were regularly hitting 38 or 39% at this stage in 2017 no?
Labour are a bit down on 2017 but so are the Tories at the same stage .
Mass hysteria, as usual, over a single opinion poll. We've gone from a landslide to hung parliament in the space of a week. **Sigh**.
Every single poll is showing the gap narrowing. Traditional Labour are coming home. Always do.
I do find it amusing how much certainty individuals can discern from polls. You're even predicting the motiviations of 'returning Labour voters'. If your guess turns out to be accurate, it will be the most counter-intuitive election of all time, because the traditional Labour voters you seem to have a psychic connection with loathe Jeremy Corbyn.
It's literally what happened in 2017
I thought Labour were regularly hitting 38 or 39% at this stage in 2017 no?
They had hit high 30s in some but were low 30s in others and leads as low as 5% had been reported. This weekends equivalent polls were 4,6,7,12 and 14 leads with labour 33 to 39 in VI
on topic great post thanks @Philip_Thompson. That said I am still struggling with the whole "looking forward to a banana and bacon pizza" thing so am withholding wholehearted approval for the moment.
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
Latest Scottish poll had the Tories losing half their seats...
Yougov MRP and Panelbase had the Tories holding 12 or 11 of their 13 Scottish seats
And Ipsos Mori? 5% swing from Tory to SNP, half their seats gone.
He only picks the ones he likes, you will get "lower than 2015" thrown at you soon.
The more people see of Bozo they less they like him .
I’m not a Corbyn fan , both are deeply flawed characters but I absolutely detest Johnson in a way I never detested May .
I respected May, I thought she was treated absolutely terribly by her own party, even if her policies were pretty dreadful.
Her big problem was going for hard Brexit. If she'd have gone for EEA she would have got it through on Labour votes.
EEA was prosposed. It would have won, but Greens, LD, SNP abstained. If it had passed it might have been the perfect compromise, fulfilling N/Ireland's needs, ensuring simple Scotland indy transition, stepping back somewhat from EU including judicially, whilst retaining single market and many standards (such as Env). It would have required other EEA members to agree though...
Afternoon all. Just an early taste of all the redundancies that will be visited upon the country if Labour form the next government. Very sad for those concerned just before Christmas.
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
The trend has been there for a while, it's just been creeping slower than in 2017 so it's gone more ignored until now. It looks like people are 'coming home' (I hate that phrase) to Labour, if nothing else because they are getting vastly more coverage - good or bad, it's still more coverage - while the Tory campaign has been almost entirely non-existent, just like in 2017.
It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015.
I lumped on a hung parliaiment yesterday and that's looking on the money.
That is the most shocking thing. 2010 and 2015, the Tories fought a campaign, like really fought. When Boris became PM, despite all the media outcry, missteps etc, there appeared to be groundwork being laid regarding setting up the Brexit getting it done, people vs parliament type narrative.
I assumed they would then go into the GE with that, plus policies that showed why once Brexit is done, we can do x, y and z (yes BS, Brexit won't be done just like that, etc etc etc, but that's not the point).
This time they literally go days without announcing anything at all, where as every day Labour have some new money spending ideas to throw out at another demographic.
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
The Boris Johnson front page in the Mirror certainly makes it more difficult for the Tories to argue Boris is on the side of the working man.
Comments
I'm not a Tory or Labour supporter and have never voted or supported either, and won't at this election. I've engaged with Johnson briefly in GLA. I've watched him as Mayor and in Government, and read a lot that he's written.
My opinion is based on his (lack of) policy, his shifting positions, his previous clearly-stated stances (on gender, sexuality, environment, race), his obvious failure to grasp policy issues and details, and his clear lack of concern, and his very clear unethical Machiavellianism.
I would agree one part of one point you made - I can't fail to be surprised by Johnson if he wins a majority, since he hasn't actually made clear what he intends on most issues including Brexit or Climate Change, indeed he doesn't know until he figures what suits him. I doubt the surprise will be pleasant though.
Any pledges he and his party have made are rendered meaningless by their utter failure to deliver or even try to deliver on previous pledges (e.g. housing, climate) and punctuated by the fact that Johnson and his cabinet are verifiable liars.
Leave seats will still swing Tory
If it leads to a few more Tory Gains from Lab and a majority for hard BREXIT that will be on OGH head.
I dont think he will care i think he hates Corbyn more than the Tories
Look at how close May got to a majority (6 seats) and that was with a mere 2.5% lead.
The irony is that the EU position on state aid is a British, and especially a Conservative, triumph. How the hell did we end up in a situation when it's a nominally Conservative PM threatening to torpedo it?
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
https://order-order.com/2019/11/29/geography-quiz-countrys-missing-off-channel-4s-map/
*sigh*. Buts sure let's pretend its about one poll.
All he needed was a few centrist policies
He has made the same mistake as May in 2017
Let Lab make the running and keep heaping abuse on Corbyn.
It is not enough IMO
The Tory Campaign has been invisible.
I am very happy with my 4.0 on hung Parliament
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
I’m not a Corbyn fan , both are deeply flawed characters but I absolutely detest Johnson in a way I never detested May .
Her big problem was going for hard Brexit. If she'd have gone for EEA she would have got it through on Labour votes.
A few people swing the other way, a few more young people turn out to vote, you can easily see how that majority slips away and if they lose seats in Scotland, it's goodbye PM Johnson, hello PM Corbyn
(At least it is in our house.)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
The LDs would not vote for Corbyn as PM either
..
I remember it well.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-voters-favor-no-deal-brexit-over-jeremy-corbyn-as-pm-poll/
There's clearly movement in several polls (including Greens and Brexit Party and SNP), that movement can be more complex than one imagines - voters from Lab going to Con, voters from Con going to Lab and Lab to Green, it's not simple swings. Thus, it's possible voters are leaving Cons, but we can't see it yet as it's disguised by other movements. We'll find out...
It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015.
I lumped on a hung parliament yesterday - to soften the blow if/when it happens - and that feels on the money right now.
Tory majority 24
Labour slowly closing the gap
Speaking to Lab Colleagues in Bolsover over last couple of days gone from quietly confident to we will be ok.
MRP Poll says Tory gain hence Lab are 6/5 with various bookies
DYOR political canvassers aren't always right but i would expect next MRP to have it toss up and the result to be a 2000 win for the Beast
Does that answer your question?
71% say NHS/health in top 3, 53% say Brexit - have I interpreted this right?
Take a look at the 97 Blair landslide vote shares. 43/31/16. Food for thought?
great post thanks @Philip_Thompson.
That said I am still struggling with the whole "looking forward to a banana and bacon pizza" thing so am withholding wholehearted approval for the moment.
It would have required other EEA members to agree though...
Not so much Singapore-on-Thames as socialism in one country. Still, I'm sure the affluent reactionaries will lap it up because Brexit.
I assumed they would then go into the GE with that, plus policies that showed why once Brexit is done, we can do x, y and z (yes BS, Brexit won't be done just like that, etc etc etc, but that's not the point).
This time they literally go days without announcing anything at all, where as every day Labour have some new money spending ideas to throw out at another demographic.