For those yesterday proclaiming that this was too important for Boris to miss I think these viewing figures speak volumes for how little people care for Channel 4 News and how climate change is not high up public priority lists.
To be fair, climate change is no doubt high up the list of priorities of many voters, but watching ignorant politicians grandstanding and trying to score cheap political points about climate change less so.
It's about time politicians stopped peddling the fantasy of stopping climate change and started saying how they will manage it.
By the end of the show it actually had less viewers than 'The UK's Strongest Man' on Channel 5
Conservative Party Election broadcast on BBC1: 3.6m Celebrity Antiques Road Trip on BBC2 : 1.4m
For those yesterday proclaiming that this was too important for Boris to miss I think these viewing figures speak volumes for how little people care for Channel 4 News and how climate change is not high up public priority lists.
Yeah, it not being important enough was deffo the reason for BJ's non attendance. In that context, what are the listening figs for Nick Ferrari?
Absolutely, which is why I'm surprised the Tories are kicking up such a fuss about it now. It would be a bit amusing if Corbyn now turns down the Ferrari interview.
Every part of the media reporting the fuss, and the reactions to the fuss, and the reactions to those reactions, is not reporting on Tory policy or the failings of its leader.
It eats up time, allows postal votes to be mailed, and detracts from the opposition.
[What in the Seven Hells has happened to paragraph spacing on here?!]
Goodness but what a lot of tosh has been written on here in recent days. There are about 150 safe Labour seats and about 150 safe Tory seats and 1 safe Liberal seat (Orkney and Shetland). Every other seat has swung like a pendulum over the last 40 years. Look at the 1979,83,87 results and you will see many seats with decent sized Tory majorities which in 1997,2001,2005 had decent sized Labour majorities. The boundary changes can sometimes make a seat change character but most changes are minor. If the MRP poll is correct, it just means around 10% of seats in 2019 will look more like they did after the 1979 election than they did after the 2017 election.
On a separate note, for all those claiming Boris is hiding, having just watched him, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart share a platform for nearly an hour and answer many media questions, he can hardly be said to be avoiding scrutiny. The Tories quite correctly assessed that a Channel 4 debate would be marginally more interesting to the average voter than watching old "The Sky AT Night" programmes presented by Patrick Moore. Channel 4 is as I said last night favoured by tree-hugging lefties who were never going to vote Tory anyway and page-3 loving Sun readers, most of whom are not interested in politics unless the politicians concerned are female and easy on the eye. The Channel which brings Channel 4 News and Naked Attraction is hardly mainstream!
By the end of the show it actually had less viewers than 'The UK's Strongest Man' on Channel 5
Conservative Party Election broadcast on BBC1: 3.6m Celebrity Antiques Road Trip on BBC2 : 1.4m
For those yesterday proclaiming that this was too important for Boris to miss I think these viewing figures speak volumes for how little people care for Channel 4 News and how climate change is not high up public priority lists.
Yeah, it not being important enough was deffo the reason for BJ's non attendance. In that context, what are the listening figs for Nick Ferrari?
According to the latest figures Nick Ferrari has 1.4m listeners. So almost double that of the Channel 4 debate.
All radio audience figures are weekly reach - the number of people who listen for at least 15 mins at ANY point during the entire week. Ferrari broadcasts for 15 hours per week (?) - so 1.4m different people hear at least 15 mins of those 15 hours! So the number listening at any one point in time will obviously be miles, miles lower - weekly reach of 1.4m will equate to audience at a point in time of say 200k ish. In contrast TV audiences are average actual audience throughout whole programme.
Re tampon tax. It's not a matter of money, it's the principle of women being taxed on having a period. It's one of those issues that goes to the heart of inequality in society and any party that doesn't support scrapping tax on tampons doesn't get it
When running a pharmacy, which I did for 20 years, I sold women's sanitary requirements. AFAIR no-one ever raised the question of tax on them, or indeed argued the price, even with my female staff. Can't recall if there was purchase tax, the forerunner of VAT, on them; suspect not. Don't recall the matter being raised until Osborne raised VAT to it's present 20%.
So you're planning to Vote Conservative then? Because that is the Conservative Party platform. Also what we've been doing, we've cut emissions faster than any other developed economy and are generating renewable energy at world leading rates, all while maintaining a growth economy. Under Corbyn and McDonnell there is no chance of the countries CO2 getting cut out while still maintaining a growth economy.
There's actually a lot of pretty good things that the government is doing about climate change. If you compare where we arenow to where we were 20 years agothe progress is astonishing If you compare us to other European countries we're doing pretty well. I wonder why the government doesn't make more of this?
Because the comparison with what is necessary to avoid the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets does not look so good. Even if every country matched our efforts it would not be good enough - so we need to do more, but the government want to prevent that argument from being had.
The government is proposing we do more. The government is doing more every single year and taking us to net zero.
🚨 New policy: Tories are pledging to introduce new state aid rules after Brexit: “We will back British business by introducing a new state aid regime which makes it faster and easier for the government to intervene to protect jobs when an industry is in trouble.” Clever. Brexit and protecting workers.
Always clever to adopt Labour policies and values. The trains next?
🚨 New policy: Tories are pledging to introduce new state aid rules after Brexit:
“We will back British business by introducing a new state aid regime which makes it faster and easier for the government to intervene to protect jobs when an industry is in trouble.”
Clever. Brexit and protecting workers.
Well there's a good reason for a Conservative not to vote Conservative.
I would agree if the opposition wasn't Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell that would just nationalise every industry they can get their hands on.
Oh yippee we lose our freedom of movement to get cheaper tampons !
My wife is outraged she gets taxed on tampons. I believe plenty of women are.
I worked out I paid more vat on face shaving equipment the space of three months than a woman would pay in vat tampons for her entire child baring life.
Blimey, the term "throw-away razors" really applies in your case, how many do you get through ... a packet a day?
He assumes that women use one tampon per period. Suspect he is also single.
Corbyn believes in a lot of things that can`t be verified by evidence. His brain doesn`t work that way. It`s truly terrifying.
This is my biggest problem with Jezza. He has a particular set of beliefs, he has had them for 40 years and nothing, absolutely nothing with change them.
It is quite different from say I have a general philosophy about life, but I am open to adjusting that given new evidence.
Corbyn has changed many views, and has implemented many policies that differ from his views. He has objectively demonstrated changes away from his core ideas in line with other wider people including the party, as can be seen with his shift on referendum, Trident, tax, and coal.
Whereas Johnson has no beliefs, simply self-serving views formed-by and changed according to, what's in his interest, regardless of their impact on society. Dangerous man.
I`m not Tory supporter, but suspect that you, like many others, have formed an unfair and inaccurate regard of Bozza. Maybe the post-Brexit Bozza will surprise you?
By the end of the show it actually had less viewers than 'The UK's Strongest Man' on Channel 5
Conservative Party Election broadcast on BBC1: 3.6m Celebrity Antiques Road Trip on BBC2 : 1.4m
For those yesterday proclaiming that this was too important for Boris to miss I think these viewing figures speak volumes for how little people care for Channel 4 News and how climate change is not high up public priority lists.
Yeah, it not being important enough was deffo the reason for BJ's non attendance. In that context, what are the listening figs for Nick Ferrari?
Absolutely, which is why I'm surprised the Tories are kicking up such a fuss about it now. It would be a bit amusing if Corbyn now turns down the Ferrari interview.
Every part of the media reporting the fuss, and the reactions to the fuss, and the reactions to those reactions, is not reporting on Tory policy or the failings of its leader.
It eats up time, allows postal votes to be mailed, and detracts from the opposition.
[What in the Seven Hells has happened to paragraph spacing on here?!]
Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.
Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.
Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.
1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.
I am going to a dinner with Priti Patel tonight, sold out, the members like her
Lots of jackboots being polished I bet
Dinner! During an election campaign! Unless it’s fish and chips in the constituency office whilst stuffing envelopes etc then it’s complacency gone mad. They can’t be short of cash so very strange.
When the sun goes down, nobody answers the door.......
Every GE people moan at Mike for such things. MRP is not magically accurate, so long as he explains why he thinks differently it's no biggie.
I didn't link the tweet as a criticism but I am surprised.
Notwithstanding the MRP, the 2017 result for Battersea was:
Labour 25,292 Conservative 22,876 Liberal Democrats 4,401
It's depressing that anyone is arguing that Smithson's letter is anything other than a grotesque misrepresentation.
I don`t understand. LibDems are 20/1 in that seat. They have no chance. Unless I`m missing something, Mike seems to be acting for the benefit of the Labour Party, not the LDs.
Mike is a commited LibDem. But he is going to lose his credibility with these leaflets. If the LibDems are taking his name in vain, I feel sorry for him, but not entirely surprised - it is their modus operandi. If he has given his consent to them, then sorry, but it is a grave error of judgment.
At prior elections I thought he'd given consent in certain seats. The letter certainly reads like it. Now though it seems that they're just blanket using it in any seat they feel like it and that OGH hasn't put any research into the individual seats the letters have gone to.
I believe that the letter has also been used in Bristol North West, which in 2017 cut up as:
Labour 27,400 Conservative 22,639 Liberal Democrats 2,814
This makes me suspect that it's being used where bar charts would be impossible :-)
Re tampon tax. It's not a matter of money, it's the principle of women being taxed on having a period. It's one of those issues that goes to the heart of inequality in society and any party that doesn't support scrapping tax on tampons doesn't get it
When running a pharmacy, which I did for 20 years, I sold women's sanitary requirements. AFAIR no-one ever raised the question of tax on them, or indeed argued the price, even with my female staff. Can't recall if there was purchase tax, the forerunner of VAT, on them; suspect not. Don't recall the matter being raised until Osborne raised VAT to it's present 20%.
Our pricing system is designed to mask VAT so consumers don't think about it. In America where sales tax is added at the till it would be much more noticeable.
Been having a look at the Conservatives volunteering website to see where they are focusing their efforts currently:
South West - Plymouth Sutton, Swindon South, Totnes, Wells South East - Canterbury (lots), Lewes, Portsmouth South, Hastings, Eastbourne, Crawley London – Carshalton (lots), Chingford, Finchley, Harrow E, Wimbledon, Battersea, Hendon, Kensington, Richmond Park , Chipping Barnet West Mids – Wolverhampton SW, Wolverhampton NE, West Bromwich, Bham Northfield East Mids – Loughborough (lots), Bolsover (lots), Northampton S, Mansfield, Broxtowe Eastern – Bedford, St Albans, South Cambridgeshire, Norwich N, North Norfolk North West – Westmorland, Southport, Pendle, Crewe, Bury N&S, Warrington S, Weaver Vale, Wirral W North East – Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Stockton S Yorkshire – Pudsey, Colne Valley, Rother Valley, Grimsby, Scunthorpe Wales – Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Newport West, Preseli Scotland – Not listed
Seems to be a mix of attack and defence. Most of the defences are vs. Labour and they seem to be going after LD seats like Carshalton. Strange that nothing seems to be happening in North Wales where lots of marginals are.
I’m sure Bozo calling working class men , feckless , drunk , criminals will go down wonderfully in those Labour Leave seats !
It takes a certain kind of arrogance to call other men feckless when you don't know how many kids you have, and to criticise single mothers when you are a leading producer of single mothers yourself. No wonder he is too cowardly to be interviewed by Andrew Neil on this or anything else.
What utter shite! Are you suggesting that because he was known for trawling the streets of London late at night bring solace to prostitutes down on their luck that Gladstone wasn't considered one of the great PMs? Most voters couldn't care less how many mistresses or children Boris does or doesn't have. Equally they aren't interested in whether or how often Corbyn shagged Diane Abbot. They want to know whether he will deliver Brexit and move this country forward or leave us in stagnation through indecision as Corbyn would do.
Oh yippee we lose our freedom of movement to get cheaper tampons !
My wife is outraged she gets taxed on tampons. I believe plenty of women are.
I worked out I paid more vat on face shaving equipment the space of three months than a woman would pay in vat tampons for her entire child baring life.
Blimey, the term "throw-away razors" really applies in your case, how many do you get through ... a packet a day?
He assumes that women use one tampon per period. Suspect he is also single.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them. One man you hate or the future of your country. Not a difficult choice.
The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" was always going to be a tricky sell for the Conservatives. It's remarkable how the penny still hasn't dropped that they might need to compromise with the electorate.
The penny seems to have dropped at least a couple of inches with the SCons that the electorate also seem to hate and despise them.
🚨 New policy: Tories are pledging to introduce new state aid rules after Brexit: “We will back British business by introducing a new state aid regime which makes it faster and easier for the government to intervene to protect jobs when an industry is in trouble.” Clever. Brexit and protecting workers.
Always clever to adopt Labour policies and values. The trains next?
West Coast mainline's, including to Holyhead, new franchise commences on the 8th December and continues to 2031. The new Avanti service takes over from Virgin
Every GE people moan at Mike for such things. MRP is not magically accurate, so long as he explains why he thinks differently it's no biggie.
I didn't link the tweet as a criticism but I am surprised.
Notwithstanding the MRP, the 2017 result for Battersea was:
Labour 25,292 Conservative 22,876 Liberal Democrats 4,401
It's depressing that anyone is arguing that Smithson's letter is anything other than a grotesque misrepresentation.
I don`t understand. LibDems are 20/1 in that seat. They have no chance. Unless I`m missing something, Mike seems to be acting for the benefit of the Labour Party, not the LDs.
Mike is a commited LibDem. But he is going to lose his credibility with these leaflets. If the LibDems are taking his name in vain, I feel sorry for him, but not entirely surprised - it is their modus operandi. If he has given his consent to them, then sorry, but it is a grave error of judgment.
At prior elections I thought he'd given consent in certain seats. The letter certainly reads like it. Now though it seems that they're just blanket using it in any seat they feel like it and that OGH hasn't put any research into the individual seats the letters have gone to.
I believe that the letter has also been used in Bristol North West, which in 2017 cut up as:
Labour 27,400 Conservative 22,639 Liberal Democrats 2,814
This makes me suspect that it's being used where bar charts would be impossible :-)
That's another seat like Warrington South. It seems to have been deliberately targeted at Lab/Con marginals in order to draw away Con votes to help Lab hold the seat.
Why are the Lib Dems and OGH trying to help Labour win Lab/Con marginals?
It's almost as if skills need to be taught to humans and if they haven't they can't do things. Like how nobody in my office 35yo+ seems to be able to just google things they don't know how to do on excel or whatever. It's like we're tool using animals that learn through usage and repetition. The horror.
It's a tin opener, not a fucking operating system and software package. And I'm in my mid-40s and can use Excel competently, thank you.
A tin opener is a strange contraption to those who aren't familiar with it. Especially considering 99% of cans it seems nowadays have ring pulls on them, my tin opener gets used more to open beer bottles than to open cans.
Agreed. Pretty snide tweet.
I think this inter-generational name calling (Boomer, Millenial, Snowflake etc.) is pretty divisive and unpleasant.
Re tampon tax. It's not a matter of money, it's the principle of women being taxed on having a period. It's one of those issues that goes to the heart of inequality in society and any party that doesn't support scrapping tax on tampons doesn't get it
When running a pharmacy, which I did for 20 years, I sold women's sanitary requirements. AFAIR no-one ever raised the question of tax on them, or indeed argued the price, even with my female staff. Can't recall if there was purchase tax, the forerunner of VAT, on them; suspect not. Don't recall the matter being raised until Osborne raised VAT to it's present 20%.
But who knows which items are exempt and which aren't? Until the whole Jaffa Cake cake/biscuit farrago I had no idea one of those categories was taxed and one was not. You see a price; you pay it.
I’m sure Bozo calling working class men , feckless , drunk , criminals will go down wonderfully in those Labour Leave seats !
It takes a certain kind of arrogance to call other men feckless when you don't know how many kids you have, and to criticise single mothers when you are a leading producer of single mothers yourself. No wonder he is too cowardly to be interviewed by Andrew Neil on this or anything else.
What utter shite! Are you suggesting that because he was known for trawling the streets of London late at night bring solace to prostitutes down on their luck that Gladstone wasn't considered one of the great PMs? Most voters couldn't care less how many mistresses or children Boris does or doesn't have. Equally they aren't interested in whether or how often Corbyn shagged Diane Abbot. They want to know whether he will deliver Brexit and move this country forward or leave us in stagnation through indecision as Corbyn would do.
"deliver Brexit and move this country forward" … make your mind up, which is it?
By the end of the show it actually had less viewers than 'The UK's Strongest Man' on Channel 5
Conservative Party Election broadcast on BBC1: 3.6m Celebrity Antiques Road Trip on BBC2 : 1.4m
For those yesterday proclaiming that this was too important for Boris to miss I think these viewing figures speak volumes for how little people care for Channel 4 News and how climate change is not high up public priority lists.
Yeah, it not being important enough was deffo the reason for BJ's non attendance. In that context, what are the listening figs for Nick Ferrari?
Absolutely, which is why I'm surprised the Tories are kicking up such a fuss about it now. It would be a bit amusing if Corbyn now turns down the Ferrari interview.
Every part of the media reporting the fuss, and the reactions to the fuss, and the reactions to those reactions, is not reporting on Tory policy or the failings of its leader.
It eats up time, allows postal votes to be mailed, and detracts from the opposition.
[What in the Seven Hells has happened to paragraph spacing on here?!]
Johnson has just received a kicking from Nick Ferrari.
He will get kickings now from everyone, and rightly so, for his cowardice. This will snowball and lead to people believing he can’t be trusted with a majority if he keeps dodging scrutiny.
Very very dangerous.
Indeed so. He thinks attending a few head to heads mean he cannot make the same mistakes as May.
If he had taken out a super injunction it wouldn't be a question that could be asked
A super injunction would prevent the reporting of the fact that there is an injunction to prevent the reporting of the fact that Boris Johnson either has X children or has X children that he knows about and has acknowledged plus Y children that he claims are not his, or has the X plus the Y plus a further Z children that he thinks might be his. Such a situation, if it somehow came out, would be extremely damaging for him politically. If it came out before the election, well need we go on?
Been having a look at the Conservatives volunteering website to see where they are focusing their efforts currently:
South West - Plymouth Sutton, Swindon South, Totnes, Wells South East - Canterbury (lots), Lewes, Portsmouth South, Hastings, Eastbourne, Crawley London – Carshalton (lots), Chingford, Finchley, Harrow E, Wimbledon, Battersea, Hendon, Kensington, Richmond Park , Chipping Barnet West Mids – Wolverhampton SW, Wolverhampton NE, West Bromwich, Bham Northfield East Mids – Loughborough (lots), Bolsover (lots), Northampton S, Mansfield, Broxtowe Eastern – Bedford, St Albans, South Cambridgeshire, Norwich N, North Norfolk North West – Westmorland, Southport, Pendle, Crewe, Bury N&S, Warrington S, Weaver Vale, Wirral W North East – Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Stockton S Yorkshire – Pudsey, Colne Valley, Rother Valley, Grimsby, Scunthorpe Wales – Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Newport West, Preseli Scotland – Not listed
Seems to be a mix of attack and defence. Most of the defences are vs. Labour and they seem to be going after LD seats like Carshalton. Strange that nothing seems to be happening in North Wales where lots of marginals are.
Shame Lab and LDs don't do something similar.
Totnes is there so that all those who help can feel they were a part of shifting Sarah Wollaston out. Interesting that North Devon, North Cornwall and St. Ives aren't on the lists. Looks like solid defences and attacks for a workable majority. More than that will be a bonus (and rather fortuitous). At least there's none of the "what the F*CK are they doing wasting effort there?" seats of 2017.
🚨 New policy: Tories are pledging to introduce new state aid rules after Brexit: “We will back British business by introducing a new state aid regime which makes it faster and easier for the government to intervene to protect jobs when an industry is in trouble.” Clever. Brexit and protecting workers.
Always clever to adopt Labour policies and values. The trains next?
It is when you want to take 40 or 50 of their northern and Midlands seats
Re Bonking Boris vs Antisemitic Jezza - I think what the public seem to have problems with is when a politician claims to be something they aren't and / or they believed them to be.
Bill Clinton wasn't hurt by his affairs, because the public knew this for ages and he wasn't giving it the holier than though routine. Compared to the Tories in the 90s, Back to Basics was terrible for them because it revealed them saying one thing and doing another.
Now Bonking Boris, everybody knows he is and he isn't going about telling everybody they not being married is living in sin. In comparison, Jezza continually tells everybody just how anti-racist he has been all his life and how he has fought tooth and nail to eradicate it, but then when it comes antisemitism he at best has a massive blind spot, while questioning the right of Israel to exist.
If he had taken out a super injunction it wouldn't be a question that could be asked
A super injunction would prevent the reporting of the fact that there is an injunction to prevent the reporting of the fact that Boris Johnson either has X children or has X children that he knows about and has acknowledged plus Y children that he claims are not his, or has the X plus the Y plus a further Z children that he thinks might be his. Such a situation, if it somehow came out, would be extremely damaging for him politically. If it came out before the election, well need we go on?
Such an injunction cannot exist because if it did there would be no way an interviewer could ask him about how many children he has. And they have. Ergo no injunction or super injunction exists
Johnson has just received a kicking from Nick Ferrari.
He will get kickings now from everyone, and rightly so, for his cowardice. This will snowball and lead to people believing he can’t be trusted with a majority if he keeps dodging scrutiny.
About time someone did. What kind of person won’t answer that question?
A shady person. But personally I dont care how many kids he has or wives he has betrayed, if he were politically competent and trustworthy. But he isn't
We all know full well if Corbyn had ducked this debate the Tories here would be attacking him. Johnson is a coward and running scared, it's evidently obvious.
If Corbyn had ducked the debate but sent someone else instead then it is fair to attack him for that if you want to. What is not fair and broke Ofcom rules was excluding the person sent instead. Make fun of the Tories for sending Gove if you want, but you can't exclude the parties representative they choose to send and put up an ice sculpture instead. Channel 4 broke Ofcom rules in line with their well established partisan bias.
Garbage, it was a leaders debate , they wanted the organ grinder not the monkey. If you went for an operation and they sent in the cleaner as the doctor had said he could not make it but the cleaner was his deputy, would you accept it.
Every GE people moan at Mike for such things. MRP is not magically accurate, so long as he explains why he thinks differently it's no biggie.
I didn't link the tweet as a criticism but I am surprised.
Notwithstanding the MRP, the 2017 result for Battersea was:
Labour 25,292 Conservative 22,876 Liberal Democrats 4,401
It's depressing that anyone is arguing that Smithson's letter is anything other than a grotesque misrepresentation.
I don`t understand. LibDems are 20/1 in that seat. They have no chance. Unless I`m missing something, Mike seems to be acting for the benefit of the Labour Party, not the LDs.
Mike is a commited LibDem. But he is going to lose his credibility with these leaflets. If the LibDems are taking his name in vain, I feel sorry for him, but not entirely surprised - it is their modus operandi. If he has given his consent to them, then sorry, but it is a grave error of judgment.
At prior elections I thought he'd given consent in certain seats. The letter certainly reads like it. Now though it seems that they're just blanket using it in any seat they feel like it and that OGH hasn't put any research into the individual seats the letters have gone to.
I believe that the letter has also been used in Bristol North West, which in 2017 cut up as:
Labour 27,400 Conservative 22,639 Liberal Democrats 2,814
This makes me suspect that it's being used where bar charts would be impossible :-)
No sign of a bar chart on the Horsham stuff from the Ld's
Good grief Politics Live is a horror show for Bozo .
His defender coming up with some guff about colourful language . And Bozos comments about women and working class men are not being taken out of context .
I have zero time for Boris but going after his kids like that in an interview is low, and unnecessary. I’d quite understand if he were angered by it.
There’s plenty of other things to go for him on that are relevant to his politics, such as policy, his plan for Brexit and his many changes of heart along the way on economics.
No wonder Labour are concentrating on Leave seats. Nothing to fear from the yellow peril, now they just need to lie through their teeth enough about Brexit to those in the North that are Labour voters and its job done.
8% lead less than 2 weeks before polling day is ok. Shame the Lib Dems are collapsing like a lead balloon. 2017 saw Tory shares falling, that isn't happening here.
'I think there is a bias [in the BBC] towards saying that Israel has a democracy in the Middle East, that Israel has a right to exist, Israel has its security concerns.'
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
As an avid anti-Johnson fan, and a Remainer, if three weeks ago you had offered me a 1992 scenario two weeks out from polling day I'd have bitten your hand off for it.
Great spot Philip and wow was he impressive in that interview with Andrew Neil, which as we all know ain't easy! He was obviously viewed as a star performer in securing the plum Tory seat of Richmond in North Yorkshire ... a job for life without doubt. Needless to say by the time I read your thread this morning, Laddies had already halved their odds on him becoming the next PM from 200/1 to 100/1.But no matter, I accepted their £1 free bet, placing it on just this proposition which, along with my own oncer, still provided me with odd of 200/1! In the next Government, he really needs to secure one of the really big jobs, the obvious one being to succeed Sajid Javid at the Treasury, which should ensure him a good chance of making it to the very top.
If by impressive with Andrew Neil you mean that Rishi Sunak was marginally successful in being duplicitous and sounding like a computer that's not listening, then great. He may be a 'performer' but not wisdom to be seen in his performance. The sad state when his behaviour seen in that interview is seen as a virtue.
If you interviewed someone for a job or housemate, and they gave a response like that, would you taken them on? Absolutely not.
Still more Lib Dem to squeeze there. Going to be 42-36 easily at this rate....and we will be back where we started in the HoC.
Labour's problem is the majority of seats the Tories are forecast to gain with Yougov MRP are Leave seats in the North and the Midlands and Wales with the Brexit Party third not the LDs, a vote the Tories can squeeze.
Seats with the LDs third tend to be seats Labour are already forecast to hold with a few exceptions like Warwick and Leamington
Still more Lib Dem to squeeze there. Going to be 42-36 easily at this rate....and we will be back where we started in the HoC.
42-36 will be a majority though. 42-37 will probably be a majority. 42-38 even has a chance of being a majority.
Not what YouGov said. Once you start talking 6%, it is far from certain it is a majority. Even on 11%, there were a huge number of those 68 majority seats on a knife edge....now we are talking about a potential lead half of that.
I do not see it if you take into account canvassing comments and especially evidence from within labour of its collapsed northern vote
I cannot see labour preventing substantial losses in the north and while I am not in the 68 majority predictions as of now and with postal votes already going in I would expect a modest majority for Boris
Every GE people moan at Mike for such things. MRP is not magically accurate, so long as he explains why he thinks differently it's no biggie.
I didn't link the tweet as a criticism but I am surprised.
Notwithstanding the MRP, the 2017 result for Battersea was:
Labour 25,292 Conservative 22,876 Liberal Democrats 4,401
It's depressing that anyone is arguing that Smithson's letter is anything other than a grotesque misrepresentation.
I don`t understand. LibDems are 20/1 in that seat. They have no chance. Unless I`m missing something, Mike seems to be acting for the benefit of the Labour Party, not the LDs.
Mike is a commited LibDem. But he is going to lose his credibility with these leaflets. If the LibDems are taking his name in vain, I feel sorry for him, but not entirely surprised - it is their modus operandi. If he has given his consent to them, then sorry, but it is a grave error of judgment.
At prior elections I thought he'd given consent in certain seats. The letter certainly reads like it. Now though it seems that they're just blanket using it in any seat they feel like it and that OGH hasn't put any research into the individual seats the letters have gone to.
In Cities of London and Westminster where the Tories and Labour have always come first and second in that order, they are saying that 'only the LDs can beat the Brexit backing Tories'. Trouble for them is that although they voted remain, the voters in that constituency are mainly intelligent people who'll see that bullshit for what it is. The MRP poll has the Tories 12% ahead with Labour in second place and I should think that a large proportion of postal votes have already been returned.
8% lead less than 2 weeks before polling day is ok. Shame the Lib Dems are collapsing like a lead balloon. 2017 saw Tory shares falling, that isn't happening here.
From the Labour PoV we NEED the LDs. We need them to take seats off the Cons in Remainia down south whilst we put up a better than expected defence in Leaveland up north. That gives hung parliament and bye bye Boris. That was the deal.
No wonder Labour are concentrating on Leave seats. Nothing to fear from the yellow peril, now they just need to lie through their teeth enough about Brexit to those in the North that are Labour voters and its job done.
Brexit matters less to Labour voters than the likes of HYUFD would have you wish. But even on Brexit, Corbyn's offer of a Deal vs Remain Final Say isn't a bad offer.
The way this is going, it isn't going to wind up at 8%. I reckon at the moment 4% to 5% lead and, again whatever HYUFD mistakenly thinks, the LibDem votes will pile up in some key tactical seats.
This is definitely not landslide territory and I don't think it's even Con majority.
I'm increasingly sure we're headed for a hung parliament.
Still more Lib Dem to squeeze there. Going to be 42-36 easily at this rate....and we will be back where we started in the HoC.
42-36 will be a majority though. 42-37 will probably be a majority. 42-38 even has a chance of being a majority.
Not what YouGov said. Once you start talking 6%, it is far from certain it is a majority. Even on 11%, there were a huge number of those 68 majority seats on a knife edge....now we are talking about a potential lead half of that.
I believe that view is outdated. If Labour are not taking from the Tories then their job of winning the marginals is still incredibly difficult. They need the Tory share to come down as well as Labour to go up.
I do not see it if you take into account canvassing comments and especially evidence from within labour of its collapsed northern vote
I cannot see labour preventing substantial losses in the north and while I am not in the 68 majority predictions as of now and with postal votes already going in I would expect a modest majority for Boris
Lets just say for a moment that Boris does just scrape a majority. The bigger problem is the cancer of Corbynomics is now truly set in. One more heave with a more presentable leader, especially as we are likely to see a world recession in next 5 years, is a terrifying prospect.
NPower today announced they're cutting 4500 jobs. The NHS is clearly up for grabs in US trade negotiations. The railways are a complete mess. These things matter to people.
And then we have the delightful prospect of Donald Trump in town next week.
Still more Lib Dem to squeeze there. Going to be 42-36 easily at this rate....and we will be back where we started in the HoC.
42-36 will be a majority though. 42-37 will probably be a majority. 42-38 even has a chance of being a majority.
Not what YouGov said. Once you start talking 6%, it is far from certain it is a majority. Even on 11%, there were a huge number of those 68 majority seats on a knife edge....now we are talking about a potential lead half of that.
The Tories have slashed the number of seats they were forecast to lose to the LDs and SNP though even if they are not gaining quite as many Labour seats, especially in London and the South
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them. One man you hate or the future of your country. Not a difficult choice.
The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" was always going to be a tricky sell for the Conservatives. It's remarkable how the penny still hasn't dropped that they might need to compromise with the electorate.
The penny seems to have dropped at least a couple of inches with the SCons that the electorate also seem to hate and despise them.
LOL, how desperate can Tories get, asking people to vote for them even if they hate them.
I've seen this argument before and I dont get it. It is desperate but it's also honest and given the prevalence of negative campaigning, of encouraging people to vote against someone not for, why wouldn't they want votes from those that hate them and those that like them?
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
As an avid anti-Johnson fan, and a Remainer, if three weeks ago you had offered me a 1992 scenario two weeks out from polling day I'd have bitten your hand off for it.
It won't be, it will be worse as Labour will suffer a bigger pro Tory swing in Leave areas and Labour have lose most of the Scottish seats Kinnock won to the SNP
The polls have come in by a couple of points, they don't tend to remain static! It's when they come in poll after poll by a number of pollsters there is a definite trend. You cant assume a MoE movement (whilst now supported by 3 or polls) will continue. The fundamentals behind this election have not altered, and no mega gaffes have occured.
That con share looks remarkably stubborn..don't numbers *usually* swing toward gov in last few days?
That was the perceived wisdom up to 2017. But that wasn't the case last time. It was a core part of Rod Crosby's model that there was "swing-back" to a governing party, based on that undecided / fence sitters will go with safety of nurse than the unknown.
I do not see it if you take into account canvassing comments and especially evidence from within labour of its collapsed northern vote
I cannot see labour preventing substantial losses in the north and while I am not in the 68 majority predictions as of now and with postal votes already going in I would expect a modest majority for Boris
Lets just say for a moment that Boris does just scrape a majority. The bigger problem is the cancer of Corbynomics is now truly set in. One more heave with a more presentable leader, especially as we are likely to see a world recession in next 5 years, is a terrifying prospect.
Or we could just accept that the 55-75 year olds cant get all the benefits of the economy and as the richest generation need to be willing to share the burdens not demand waspi pensions, free tv licences and social care paid for by their children but not them.
Restore the balance between wage earners and asset owners and Corbynism goes away. Repeat the last decade and it will be eventually be tried out.
8% lead less than 2 weeks before polling day is ok. Shame the Lib Dems are collapsing like a lead balloon. 2017 saw Tory shares falling, that isn't happening here.
From the Labour PoV we NEED the LDs. We need them to take seats off the Cons in Remainia down south whilst we put up a better than expected defence in Leaveland up north. That gives hung parliament and bye bye Boris. That was the deal.
Except - Remain Tories see how that works and are now returning from a potential dalliance with the LibDems.
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 34% (+2) LDEM: 13% (-1) BREX: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
BOOM! Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
I think a hung parliament could easily result but again this shows the Tory share stable and just a firming up of Labour waverers.
As they say, look at the share not the lead. If Labour don't hit the high 30s then 42 should be enough based on all the MRPs because the Tories are not hemorrhaging seats to the Libs and SNP.
That con share looks remarkably stubborn..don't numbers *usually* swing toward gov in last few days?
Yes good point . But they can fall simply by Labour increasing its turnout , it’s all relative . But I think the Tories are nailed on for at least 40% , it’s all about how close Labour can get .
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The trend is pathetic Swinson losing her Remain voters to Labour. What can the Tories do about that? I do repeat though I think agreeing a head to head with Corbyn was a strategic error for that reason. Should have been encouraging putting Corbyn and Swinson on a level playing field for the Remain vote.
Comments
It eats up time, allows postal votes to be mailed, and detracts from the opposition.
[What in the Seven Hells has happened to paragraph spacing on here?!]
On a separate note, for all those claiming Boris is hiding, having just watched him, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart share a platform for nearly an hour and answer many media questions, he can hardly be said to be avoiding scrutiny. The Tories quite correctly assessed that a Channel 4 debate would be marginally more interesting to the average voter than watching old "The Sky AT Night" programmes presented by Patrick Moore. Channel 4 is as I said last night favoured by tree-hugging lefties who were never going to vote Tory anyway and page-3 loving Sun readers, most of whom are not interested in politics unless the politicians concerned are female and easy on the eye. The Channel which brings Channel 4 News and Naked Attraction is hardly mainstream!
Australia Day 1 score 302 for 1
Pakistan yet to bat
What should the odds be on an Australia win?
So the number listening at any one point in time will obviously be miles, miles lower - weekly reach of 1.4m will equate to audience at a point in time of say 200k ish.
In contrast TV audiences are average actual audience throughout whole programme.
The trains next?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7737087/Police-tell-Iain-Duncan-Smith-bodyguard-election-day.html?fbclid=IwAR0A7HDZ-QeFBMvSs2Cifiy5XhH79Q2z3hj6RKvnnlAp5nLdbPxVZIpdf2E
Labour 27,400
Conservative 22,639
Liberal Democrats 2,814
This makes me suspect that it's being used where bar charts would be impossible :-)
South West - Plymouth Sutton, Swindon South, Totnes, Wells
South East - Canterbury (lots), Lewes, Portsmouth South, Hastings, Eastbourne, Crawley
London – Carshalton (lots), Chingford, Finchley, Harrow E, Wimbledon, Battersea, Hendon, Kensington, Richmond Park , Chipping Barnet
West Mids – Wolverhampton SW, Wolverhampton NE, West Bromwich, Bham Northfield
East Mids – Loughborough (lots), Bolsover (lots), Northampton S, Mansfield, Broxtowe
Eastern – Bedford, St Albans, South Cambridgeshire, Norwich N, North Norfolk
North West – Westmorland, Southport, Pendle, Crewe, Bury N&S, Warrington S, Weaver Vale, Wirral W
North East – Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Stockton S
Yorkshire – Pudsey, Colne Valley, Rother Valley, Grimsby, Scunthorpe
Wales – Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Newport West, Preseli
Scotland – Not listed
Seems to be a mix of attack and defence. Most of the defences are vs. Labour and they seem to be going after LD seats like Carshalton. Strange that nothing seems to be happening in North Wales where lots of marginals are.
Shame Lab and LDs don't do something similar.
So no nationalisation for at least 2 parliaments
Why are the Lib Dems and OGH trying to help Labour win Lab/Con marginals?
I think this inter-generational name calling (Boomer, Millenial, Snowflake etc.) is pretty divisive and unpleasant.
… make your mind up, which is it?
He is.
Such a situation, if it somehow came out, would be extremely damaging for him politically. If it came out before the election, well need we go on?
Interesting that North Devon, North Cornwall and St. Ives aren't on the lists. Looks like solid defences and attacks for a workable majority. More than that will be a bonus (and rather fortuitous).
At least there's none of the "what the F*CK are they doing wasting effort there?" seats of 2017.
Bill Clinton wasn't hurt by his affairs, because the public knew this for ages and he wasn't giving it the holier than though routine. Compared to the Tories in the 90s, Back to Basics was terrible for them because it revealed them saying one thing and doing another.
Now Bonking Boris, everybody knows he is and he isn't going about telling everybody they not being married is living in sin. In comparison, Jezza continually tells everybody just how anti-racist he has been all his life and how he has fought tooth and nail to eradicate it, but then when it comes antisemitism he at best has a massive blind spot, while questioning the right of Israel to exist.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/1200391530713886722
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200392208823836674?s=20
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-1)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov
Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
His defender coming up with some guff about colourful language . And Bozos comments about women and working class men are not being taken out of context .
This is more desperate spin by the Tory party .
Remain: 52% (+1)
Leave: 48% (-1)
via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov
Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
They. Have. Learned. Nothing.
There’s plenty of other things to go for him on that are relevant to his politics, such as policy, his plan for Brexit and his many changes of heart along the way on economics.
If you interviewed someone for a job or housemate, and they gave a response like that, would you taken them on? Absolutely not.
Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
7m
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-1)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
via
@PanelbaseMD
, 27 - 28 Nov
Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
Seats with the LDs third tend to be seats Labour are already forecast to hold with a few exceptions like Warwick and Leamington
I cannot see labour preventing substantial losses in the north and while I am not in the 68 majority predictions as of now and with postal votes already going in I would expect a modest majority for Boris
Trouble for them is that although they voted remain, the voters in that constituency are mainly intelligent people who'll see that bullshit for what it is.
The MRP poll has the Tories 12% ahead with Labour in second place and I should think that a large proportion of postal votes have already been returned.
The way this is going, it isn't going to wind up at 8%. I reckon at the moment 4% to 5% lead and, again whatever HYUFD mistakenly thinks, the LibDem votes will pile up in some key tactical seats.
This is definitely not landslide territory and I don't think it's even Con majority.
I'm increasingly sure we're headed for a hung parliament.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1200394636231159809
If we see a Labour 37% this weekend, I'm almost certain we're off.
This poll suggests the supposed Corbyn "carcrash" did absolutely bugger all.
Have I messed up not closing my juicy long Con spread positions?
And then we have the delightful prospect of Donald Trump in town next week.
That account has been nothing but FBPE and pro-Labour since it began.
That con share looks remarkably stubborn..don't numbers *usually* swing toward gov in last few days?
Labour canvassers are reporting their support is much more robust than they expected and much stronger than polls would suggest.
Restore the balance between wage earners and asset owners and Corbynism goes away. Repeat the last decade and it will be eventually be tried out.
Oh its happening people. Those super close con lab fights where BXP take just enough to stop con will swing it
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
I do repeat though I think agreeing a head to head with Corbyn was a strategic error for that reason. Should have been encouraging putting Corbyn and Swinson on a level playing field for the Remain vote.