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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ra

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.

    Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.

    Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.

    Yeah go on, smear him, cover up your boys racism like a good drone.
  • Minor move on the Spreadex spread for the Brexit Party.

    Now up to 2.5-4. A big increase though on where they were yesterday. Wonder if the MRP is likely to have them down as winning some individual constituencies and it's beginning to leak out?
  • Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...
  • Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.

    Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.

    Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.

    So what. Numerous Archbishops of Canterbury have openly supported the Labour Party and criticised almost every Tory government I can remember. The Church and Nation Committee of the Church of Scotland used to be the Labour Party in Scotland at prayer.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Ave_it said:

    Should LAB be disqualified in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport?

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/27/plymouth-labour-officer-boasts-breaking-law/

    Community organizers for Jezza
  • glw said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.
    It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.
    Er, what about Churchill using all those leaks from the civil service and military during the 1930s?
  • IanB2 said:

    Marcus01 said:

    Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"


    As your twelfth post on PB that is pretty pitiful. If you are going to peddle such stuff here you might at least make more of an effort with your spelling and grammar.
    Oh dear, don't like the message shoot the messenger,says it all..
  • Artist said:

    Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP
    [snip]
    Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
    Redcar- Labour 4% ahead

    Labour 2.1 Coventry South, 1.2 Redcar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

    St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Artist said:

    Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

    West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
    Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
    Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
    Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
    Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

    How do you find individual seats?
    I tried but could only see the tactical voting site and that only worked via postcode and not seat name.
    You have to enter postcodes
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    Artist said:

    Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

    West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
    Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
    Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
    Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
    Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

    How do you find individual seats?
    I tried but could only see the tactical voting site and that only worked via postcode and not seat name.
    Slightly manual, but if you work out, for example, that S44 is the town postcode for Bolsover, and then start typing, the postcode autofills.

    Fine for half a dozen or so seats you are interested in, but no good whatsoever for flitting around 650 seats.
  • Andrew said:

    So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.

    Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.

    A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.

    Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019

    Ave_it said:

    Should LAB be disqualified in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport?

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/27/plymouth-labour-officer-boasts-breaking-law/

    Community organizers for Jezza
    Vote early, vote often....it would be funny if we didn't have people openly talking about voting in person and via postal vote as a student, polling cards sent out to 16/17 year olds and now this.

    And of course, if Jezza wins, it is votes for everybody with zero checks.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Stocky said:

    Edinburgh West: just got a v small bet on Tories at 33/1. Looks way over-priced to me. Anyone with any insight on that constituency?

    Good bet. Unlikely but not 33-1. Would require CON to win 20 seats in Scotland but that could happen as unionist LAB voters wake up to vote with CON. More likely the more coverage the CORBYNISTA extremist Sturgeon gets, as per her 'manifesto' presentation this morning!

    Vote SNP, LD or GRN get CORBYNISTA/STURGEON!
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    edited November 2019
    Pro_Rata said:

    Artist said:

    Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

    West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
    Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
    Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
    Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
    Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

    How do you find individual seats?
    I tried but could only see the tactical voting site and that only worked via postcode and not seat name.
    Slightly manual, but if you work out, for example, that S44 is the town postcode for Bolsover, and then start typing, the postcode autofills.

    Fine for half a dozen or so seats you are interested in, but no good whatsoever for flitting around 650 seats.
    Also writing in the seat name with dashes between words; for example:
    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/st-albans/
  • BBC 'haven't yet fixed a date' for Johnson/Neil interview
  • Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...

    You may have ticked a box to subscribe to the thread. I did that once by accident and got a hundred emails within an hour. You need to unsubscribe to the thread [or wait for a new thread but that could be a thousand emails later].
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Brom said:

    You can't stop a majority of that size with tactical voting. Deliberate tactical voting will save/win a few seats and unintentional tactical voting will do the same. But there will be far more cases where seats are lost/not won due to tactical voting. It will only work where everyone makes the same decision and clearly in somewhere like Kensington that won't be the case.

    Difficult but not impossible so long as the Con lead is in single digits. Depends how determined and smart people are. Evidence of that is generally scant, I grant you, but maybe late in the day something clicks.
  • Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...

    You may have ticked a box to subscribe to the thread. I did that once by accident and got a hundred emails within an hour. You need to unsubscribe to the thread [or wait for a new thread but that could be a thousand emails later].
    Thanks!
  • Labour ahead in Kensington, good signs for tactical voting
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

    St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

    Richmond Park is an easy LD gain.

    Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.
  • 148grss said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Artist said:

    Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

    West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
    Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
    Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
    Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
    Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

    How do you find individual seats?
    I tried but could only see the tactical voting site and that only worked via postcode and not seat name.
    Slightly manual, but if you work out, for example, that S44 is the town postcode for Bolsover, and then start typing, the postcode autofills.

    Fine for half a dozen or so seats you are interested in, but no good whatsoever for flitting around 650 seats.
    Also writing in the seat name with dashes between words; for example:
    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/st-albans/
    Thanks! I wanted to look up this one which Barnesian and I calculated numbers on previously: https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/bristol-north-west/

    Interestingly it says Tory gain and Tory gain [narrowly] even with 30% extra tactical voting.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

    St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

    Richmond Park is an easy LD gain.

    Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.
    Oooh, Tory Gain of Sheffield Hallam when LDs have assumed its in the bag would be hilarious.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Afternoon folks. How many minutes to save the NHS from the evil baby-eating Tories?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1199701057515016193

    Not clear if Boris Johnson has agreed to interview Andrew Neil.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    BBC 'haven't yet fixed a date' for Johnson/Neil interview

    Must be Jo tonight then.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Seems to be some disquiet over postal votes in Plymouth Devonport.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    BBC 'haven't yet fixed a date' for Johnson/Neil interview

    December 13th
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    MRP has Labour holding both Leeds North West and Cambridge
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    https://twitter.com/plymouthcc/status/1199700221661458434

    Plymouth postal vote problem just up.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Andrew said:

    So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.

    Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.

    A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.

    Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.
    We agree on something!

    You're absolutely right. The largest and most expensive poll in history was also the most inaccurate!

    2.4 million Readers' Digest respondents produced the infamous poll predicting that Landon would beat Roosevelt 57% to 43%. In fact, Roosevelt beat Landon 62% to 38%!

    The far smaller Gallup poll was way more accurate.

    The heart of the problem was selection bias and nonresponse bias.

    I have a BIG concern that pollsters are still failing to connect with mobile phone users (who uses a landline anymore except old people?) and young people.

    https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Think so.
    Also worth bearing in mind that whilst MRP is good it’s not exactly John Curtice’s exit poll so, as I think Pulpstar said, it’ll be more interesting to see where the votes are gathering and where they are not.

    Thanks. Yes, NOTHING beats the great Curtice exit poll. I'm guessing YouGov are doing 3 of these. Tonight, next Wed, then eve of poll on the 11th.
  • IanB2 said:

    BBC 'haven't yet fixed a date' for Johnson/Neil interview

    Must be Jo tonight then.
    Apparently Jo and Farage next week. Is he interviewing Adam Price/Sian Berry?
  • Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    MRP has the Conservatives regaining Eastbourne
  • Artist said:

    Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP
    [snip]
    Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
    Redcar- Labour 4% ahead

    Labour 2.1 Coventry South, 1.2 Redcar.
    Redcar Tory bets were good ones then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    MRP has the Conservatives regaining Eastbourne

    And North Norfolk
  • Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.

    Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.

    Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.

    Balls. More Corbynista lies.

    If you want to say that the Chief Rabbi is a partisan liar and that the jews have nothing to complain about then why not just say it openly.

    Verminous.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    These MRP numbers are appalling for the LibDems - they could end up losing a third of their seats net, even while they increase their total vote share
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

    St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

    Richmond Park is an easy LD gain.

    Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.
    Oooh, Tory Gain of Sheffield Hallam when LDs have assumed its in the bag would be hilarious.
    Just had our first leaflet of the campaign here in Maidenhead from the LDs which quotes the Best for Britain MRP (LDs a mere 17% behind).

    It must be very out of date now though as it still includes the Brexit party who aren't standing here! I suspect the Yougov MRP will show Theresa home and hosed (she is still very popular locally and I would expect her to win by around 15k with the LDs moving back up to second)
  • Still no sign off a let up in the Lib Dem Propaganda arriving at Chez Urquhart!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    These MRP numbers are appalling for the LibDems - they could end up losing a third of their seats net, even while they increase their total vote share

    PC hold Ceredgion easily on these numbers
  • Excellent, thanks. That document seems to list the figures without tactical voting.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    Still no sign off a let up in the Lib Dem Propaganda arriving at Chez Urquhart!!!

    Have you had one of those fake newspaper leaflets>?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases

    rcs1000 said:

    MRP has Labour holding both Leeds North West and Cambridge

    Is this about the YouGov MRP out ?!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    speybay said:

    Balls. More Corbynista lies.
    If you want to say that the Chief Rabbi is a partisan liar and that the jews have nothing to complain about then why not just say it openly.
    Verminous.

    Softhead trolling not welcome.
    It is not "verminous" to suggest that someone's open support of Boris Johnson is relevant in assessing whether there is an element of partisanship in their intervention in an election campaign in which Boris Johnson is a leading participant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    LDs hold Edinburgh West in tight the way battle
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019

    Still no sign off a let up in the Lib Dem Propaganda arriving at Chez Urquhart!!!

    Have you had one of those fake newspaper leaflets>?
    I have had the full works. So many it is difficult to remember all of them.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    RobD said:

    Afternoon folks. How many minutes to save the NHS from the evil baby-eating Tories?

    According to Corbyn, it's too late.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    LDs gain Cheadle by a smidgen
  • kinabalu said:

    speybay said:

    Balls. More Corbynista lies.
    If you want to say that the Chief Rabbi is a partisan liar and that the jews have nothing to complain about then why not just say it openly.
    Verminous.

    Softhead trolling not welcome.
    It is not "verminous" to suggest that someone's open support of Boris Johnson is relevant in assessing whether there is an element of partisanship in their intervention in an election campaign in which Boris Johnson is a leading participant.
    Yes , it is. Utterly verminous doesn't do it justice, actually. In the context of the anti-semitism debate it is utterly so.

    Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019

    Andrew said:

    So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.

    Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.

    A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.

    Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.
    Yeah, 270,000 responses that went into DataPraxis would be the equivalent of over 5 weeks of YouGov MRP data as they do 7000ish a day for their model.

    How were things 5 weeks ago?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Sunderland central a dead heat with 13% bxp to squeeze. Tasty
  • Stocky said:

    Edinburgh West: just got a v small bet on Tories at 33/1. Looks way over-priced to me. Anyone with any insight on that constituency?

    Waste of money.

    Tories are putting zero resources into long-shots like EdW. They are fighting tooth and nail to hold on to what they’ve got.

    Lib Dems are also fighting tooth and nail to hold on to W Dunb and EdW and to attempt to gain perhaps 3 other seats (O&S and Caith are safe as houses). EdW is hooching with SLD activists, and cash. The incumbent MP is a total turkey, but they are the only Unionist game in town.

    SNP fight a great ground game, but if this is an SNP re-gain then the Unionist vote would have utterly collapsed. Can’t see it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Sunderland central a dead heat with 13% bxp to squeeze. Tasty

    That would be a fun way to start the night :o:D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases

    Well as most elections are won and lost in the marginals isn't this nearly always the case? I mean that's why they are marginals. ;)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Can anyone tell me where they are getting this MRP data?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    LDs hold Carshalton by the slimmest of margins
  • glw said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.
    It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.
    Er, what about Churchill using all those leaks from the civil service and military during the 1930s?
    OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE isn't actually that sensitive. It's only one level above OFFICIAL the lowest level of classification. It can be sent by Royal Mail but not unsecured email. It is just stuff they'd rather that someone without a business need didn't see.
  • I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630

    Can anyone tell me where they are getting this MRP data?

    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/*ENTERCONSTITUENCYHERE*/
  • glw said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.
    It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.
    Er, what about Churchill using all those leaks from the civil service and military during the 1930s?
    OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE isn't actually that sensitive. It's only one level above OFFICIAL the lowest level of classification. It can be sent by Royal Mail but not unsecured email. It is just stuff they'd rather that someone without a business need didn't see.
    A bit like US "Top Secret", where millions of people can access it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If the SNP get within 1 point of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West I will purchase and eat a hat.
  • I've not received a single election leaflet yet.

    Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    edited November 2019
    Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
    Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases

    rcs1000 said:

    MRP has Labour holding both Leeds North West and Cambridge

    Is this about the YouGov MRP out ?!
    Nope, I'm using the B4B MRP
  • I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

    And it isn't as if we have long to wait for the big boys to release their MRP model.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Can anyone tell me where they are getting this MRP data?

    B4B
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    RobD said:

    Sunderland central a dead heat with 13% bxp to squeeze. Tasty

    That would be a fun way to start the night :o:D
    I've been touting it as outer edge of expectations for 2 months!
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    rcs1000 said:

    B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

    St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

    Just looking at that. Seems unlikely the Lib Dems poll under 30?
  • I've not received a single election leaflet yet.

    I can forward you some of mine if you like....
  • BfB MRP: Cambridge easy Lab hold (LibDems are favourites in betting)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    Can anyone tell me where they are getting this MRP data?

    B4B
    Means nothing to me. Can you post a link?
  • IanB2 said:

    BBC 'haven't yet fixed a date' for Johnson/Neil interview

    Must be Jo tonight then.
    Being from Paisley, Brillo is used to whining wee bachles.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Flint is toast on those figures then. Gosh.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases

    Well as most elections are won and lost in the marginals isn't this nearly always the case? I mean that's why they are marginals. ;)
    This election is the most marginal I recall from recent memory. Between Tory seats held by a few hundred votes and Labour seats the same. It could literally go between massive Tory majority to the Tories standing still, to Labour gaining seats.

    If Labour gain even a few percent it’s almost certainly going to be a Hung Parliament. And that’s before higher youth turnout + tactical voting, which if you look at Canterbury seems to be working.
  • Wow, am I reading this right? The Lib Dems overturn a Tory majority of 22,384 and 64% of the vote to seize Windsor from third place?
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 337

    I've not received a single election leaflet yet.

    I can forward you some of mine if you like....
    All I've had is two dodgy bar charts from guess who?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Libdems capture Wimbledon
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

    Think this is just the warm up for tonight's main event with the true YouGov/MRP poll.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited November 2019
    ()
  • And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:


    Yeah, 270,000 responses that went into DataPraxis would be the equivalent of over 5 weeks of YouGov MRP data as they do 7000ish a day for their model.

    The 270k was pretty much my point - ie that it suggests they might not just be using recent data, but from previous elections.

    The temporal component is something traditional MRP models haven't been good at handling, but if it can done properly there's plenty potential extra information there. Possibly more elections will be needed, YouGov only have data on the last four.
  • Miss 64, probably a kulak too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    GIN1138 said:

    I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

    Think this is just the warm up for tonight's main event with the true YouGov/MRP poll.
    Everyone else is getting their cheap knock-offs out early I see. :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Wow, am I reading this right? The Lib Dems overturn a Tory majority of 22,384 and 64% of the vote to seize Windsor from third place?

    No.

    B4B MRP has it as an easy Tory hold
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?

    Isn't that like the third safest Tory seat in the realm?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

    Oh. And I was just diving into it. Right, will do something else instead. But what?
  • I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

    Which ones struck you as particularly unconvincing?
  • If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
  • 148grss said:

    Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
    Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?

    If there was any chance of her losing, John Nicolson wouldn’t have scuttled off to Perth.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    148grss said:

    Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
    Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?

    Walking while on phone but the Scotland Lib Dem figures look weirs/wrong to me.

    Predicting a fall in the vote for the LIB Dems in Edinburgh West is mental.
  • All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.

    I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Could someone post a link please? Presumably we're not referring to the 30th October Best for Britain data?

    I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.
  • And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?

    Err no, on the model she gets 55% of the total vote.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Wow, am I reading this right? The Lib Dems overturn a Tory majority of 22,384 and 64% of the vote to seize Windsor from third place?

    No.

    B4B MRP has it as an easy Tory hold
    Ha, ha, fair enough. Someone needs to teach me how to read that chart.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Which bookies will not suspend their election markets in the face of the YouGov MRP?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.

    I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.

    Why not deal with the message rather than attacking the messenger?
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