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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ra

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  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Could someone post a link please? Presumably we're not referring to the 30th October Best for Britain data?

    I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.

    Errr ^^^ is this what everyone is getting excited about? Data that's 4 weeks old?

    Shift to Labour in the last couple of days certainly won't be reflected then. Nor will the LibDem dip.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited November 2019

    This election is the most marginal I recall from recent memory. Between Tory seats held by a few hundred votes and Labour seats the same. It could literally go between massive Tory majority to the Tories standing still, to Labour gaining seats.

    If Labour gain even a few percent it’s almost certainly going to be a Hung Parliament. And that’s before higher youth turnout + tactical voting, which if you look at Canterbury seems to be working.
    CHB, your new moniker is Epson. Why? Because you're the biggest projector here.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2019

    If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?

    Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.
    Still it may be useful in identifying seats where the odds on Labour in particular are too long.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973

    That’s shocking.

    Is Swinson toast?
    These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.

    I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.

    Only the YouGov MRP. Ashcroft did one which was miles off :-)

  • And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?

    No you're completely misreading it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.

    I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
    Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973

    If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?

    The LDs dropped 5 points in the initial week, (from 20 to 15) but have only seen their share drop very modestly from there. Sunil's weekly elbow even had then up slightly on Sunday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,303

    I've not received a single election leaflet yet.

    The only ones I have received, I delivered myself.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.
    The YouGov is based on a single week of data.
  • rcs1000 said:

    These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.

    I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
    Isn't that the irony? The worse she does, the fewer possible successors there'll be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,680
    rcs1000 said:

    These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.

    I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
    Ed Davey.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,214
    Andrew said:

    Only the YouGov MRP. Ashcroft did one which was miles off :-)

    Knowing our luck the MRP will be the most inaccurate this time.
  • Alistair said:

    The YouGov is based on a single week of data.
    Ah, OK, thanks. Scrub my comment then.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Alistair said:

    The YouGov is based on a single week of data.
    Still not particularly fresh then ...

  • No you're completely misreading it.
    Yes, I'll shut up.
  • Errr ^^^ is this what everyone is getting excited about? Data that's 4 weeks old?

    Shift to Labour in the last couple of days certainly won't be reflected then. Nor will the LibDem dip.
    No its todays B4B MRP. But yes it uses data that is already old, but not that old.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Errr ^^^ is this what everyone is getting excited about? Data that's 4 weeks old?

    Shift to Labour in the last couple of days certainly won't be reflected then. Nor will the LibDem dip.
    They've updated for November.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374
    speybay said:

    Yes , it is. Utterly verminous doesn't do it justice, actually. In the context of the anti-semitism debate it is utterly so.
    Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.

    You were at verminous. Now it's "utterly verminous" and that still (!) doesn't do it justice. Gosh.
    I detect a softhead troll. Suggest you prove me wrong by apologizing profusely and exiting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,680
    Don't forget last time round Lord Ashcroft's MRP model was actively misleading.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,872
    edited November 2019
    Tory candidate for Glasgow Central suspended, due to comments about Muslims.
    I need a spreadsheet of binned candidates, it seems to be higher than in previous elections.
  • Which ones struck you as particularly unconvincing?
    It's the combination of West Bromwich East, Coventry South and Stoke-on-Trent Central that looks oddest to me.

    The Lib Dem findings, conversely, look entirely possible to me.
  • Interesting to see the LDs static in West country seats like Thornbury and Yeovil, and going backwards in North Devon and St Ives.

    Tories and Lab exactly tied in Sunderland Central.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Tory candidate for Glasgow Central suspended, due to comments about Muslims.
    I need a spreadsheet of binned candidates, it seems to be higher than in previous elections.

    So that's one for holocaust denial in Aberdeen, and now one for islamophobia. What a lovely bunch the SCons are.
  • Brave Sir Boris is absolutely terrified of any kind of detaield scrutiny. It's pathetic.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1199699727434031113
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Still not particularly fresh then ...

    7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374

    I've been touting it as outer edge of expectations for 2 months!

    You have indeed. And I took heed. I'm on at a big price.
    You do have your uses :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,680
    edited November 2019

    It's the combination of West Bromwich East, Coventry South and Stoke-on-Trent Central that looks oddest to me.

    The Lib Dem findings, conversely, look entirely possible to me.
    The Tories are further behind in Coventry South than in Coventry North East - I know the seats well enough, and that it is ridiculous
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Brave Sir Boris is absolutely terrified of any kind of detaield scrutiny. It's pathetic.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1199699727434031113

    Are you fucking shitting me?

    No. Fucking. Way.
  • Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
  • Alistair said:

    7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?
    As long as it's properly weighted mind-reading...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Empty fucking chair the twat. An hour of Neil reading out every allegation against him.
  • Also it barely has Swinson holding on 31.41% to 31%
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited November 2019

    I've not received a single election leaflet yet.

    Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.

    “quite politely to MY saying “no thanks..”

    One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.
  • 148grss said:

    Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
    Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?

    Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.
    Bearsden Tories are not voting for Brexit.
  • Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.
    Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.
  • Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.

    Yep - Johnson is a liar and he knows that Neil would expose his lies, as well as his inability to master any kind of brief. The surprise is that Corbyn agreed without knowing that Johnson was also tied down.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,781
    edited November 2019
    Byronic said:

    “quite politely to MY saying “no thanks..”

    One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.
    ZAP!!!!!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Looking through all the seat projections I think the model is unlikley to be correct on way too many.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.

    Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!

    Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    Is an "absolute cast iron guarantee" stronger or weaker than saying "I'd rather be dead in a ditch"?

    Doesn't Johnson now need to say something like "I'd rather be tortured to death"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,164
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories are further behind in Coventry South than in Coventry North East - I know the seats well enough, and that it is ridiculous
    Particularly when you consider who the Coventry South Labour candidate is. Isn’t Cov South and places like Earsldon a bit more middle class and possibly a bit more remain than North East?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,164
    Chris said:

    Is an "absolute cast iron guarantee" stronger or weaker than saying "I'd rather be dead in a ditch"?
    Doesn't Johnson now need to say something like "I'd rather be tortured to death"?

    Than face Andrew Neil ?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Alistair said:

    Bearsden Tories are not voting for Brexit.
    All it takes is some SLab going SNP and some SCons not voting LD and the LDs have another leadership contest to run...
  • Poster update from St Albans.

    I have finally spotted a Conservative poster! From a distance it looked like an estate agent board!

    More Lib Dem poster sites than normal and fewer Labour ones.

    In this city I have seen maybe 3-4 labour boards and none for any other parties. Never seen so few boards

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    Alistair said:

    Empty fucking chair the twat. An hour of Neil reading out every allegation against him.

    A tub of lard is traditional.
  • Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.

    https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1199712580777971712?s=20
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,781
    edited November 2019
    Byronic said:

    Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!

    Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?
    Just say he's come down with a spot of orf:

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/orf/

    No one will believe him but many might see the funny side.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    Nigelb said:

    Than face Andrew Neil ?
    I was thinking of his NHS pledge. But you may have a point.
  • https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1199712580777971712?s=20
    And if Jezza becomes PM, the likes of Bastani are going to be bunged public money to spread their propaganda.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973

    Interesting to see the LDs static in West country seats like Thornbury and Yeovil, and going backwards in North Devon and St Ives.

    Tories and Lab exactly tied in Sunderland Central.
    I don't think that should be a big surprise "Bollocks to Brexit" was never going to go down well in very Leave areas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,164
    Chris said:

    A tub of lard is traditional.
    Given Neil's current avoirdupois, an empty chair would be the better look.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973
    Pulpstar said:

    Don't forget last time round Lord Ashcroft's MRP model was actively misleading.

    Was it? I remember it as being rather good.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374

    Yep - Johnson is a liar and he knows that Neil would expose his lies, as well as his inability to master any kind of brief. The surprise is that Corbyn agreed without knowing that Johnson was also tied down.

    Egregious, though, from the viewpoint of balanced BBC election coverage. And, yes, very stupid of Corbyn to do it if Johnson ends up wimping out. The Neil grilling is all about damage limitation. There is no upside. It has to be both or neither.
    And speaking of the Beeb, Laura K's twitter handle is often reading like an arm of CCHQ. Piss poor.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    If I'm reading it correctly, that model has the Tories winning Ynys Mon with 33% of the vote.
    Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on cons there.
    That could be good value (but not for me, as they won't take my bets!)
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Hear there is a really good poll coming out on December 12th after 10pm. Likely to be very accurate too.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    148grss said:

    All it takes is some SLab going SNP and some SCons not voting LD and the LDs have another leadership contest to run...
    I'm also interested by the fact that B4B are saying vote LD in an LD/SNP marginal, and then say this in their "Scotland and NI" section:
    "We have made specific recommendations in some Scottish constituencies where it is possible the Conservatives could win. It is vital we vote for candidates who can stop the Tories. However, in other constituencies we have avoided giving specific advice as it is clear that pro-Europeans are likely to win regardless and we do not believe it would be helpful or desirable for us to attempt to choose between parties who are our allies in the fight against Brexit."
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Byronic said:

    Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!

    Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?
    If I were him I'd agree to it but not let the BBC announce it until Friday. It's amusing watching Bastani and friends going wild over the injustice of it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374
    Nigelb said:
    That's appalling if Rudy went rogue and did it all off his own bat. Porridge?
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,718
    Should there not have been guarantees between the BBC and all major party leaders before the interviews went ahead?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    Alistair said:

    7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?
    Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.

    That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,164
    kinabalu said:

    That's appalling if Rudy went rogue and did it all off his own bat. Porridge?
    Don't be silly, of course he didn't.
    Porridge is a possibility, but I suspect he's more likely to squeal if Trump really has abandoned him.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    You were at verminous. Now it's "utterly verminous" and that still (!) doesn't do it justice. Gosh.
    I detect a softhead troll. Suggest you prove me wrong by apologizing profusely and exiting.
    I'm enjoying Feisty Kinabalu. It's like a fresh twist on an old classic.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973

    Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.
    That's rather more of a claim to fame than most LibDem MPs.

    The old LDs had a bunch of serious people. Huhne, corrupt though he was, was serious. Clegg was serious. Charles Kennedy was serious. Paddy Ashdown was serious. That chap who used to be the MP for Yeovil was serious.

    Who is serious in the current line-up? Not Wera Hobhouse, not Elizabeth Jardine, not Jo Swinson, not that funny lady from OxWAb. Now, a fair number of the MPs are young and might mature well. But there isn't really an embarassment of riches. The LDs have to hope that someone is elected this time around who has both authority, organisational skills and charisma. (Sorry guys, I'm busy.)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Boris has to face Neil

    All he needs to say is that he was with Carrie in Pizza Hut having a one nation conservative pizza!

    If he doesn't turn up then it CORBYNISTA new favourites for the election!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    Empty fucking chair the twat. An hour of Neil reading out every allegation against him.

    I think they would have to do something along those lines. It would look really bad for the Beeb otherwise.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Alistair said:

    Walking while on phone but the Scotland Lib Dem figures look weirs/wrong to me.

    Predicting a fall in the vote for the LIB Dems in Edinburgh West is mental.
    Dropping 10pc in Ceredigion doesnt feel right either. I think they gain share if anything.
  • Given the Tories and Labour have given the BBC the middle finger over the "leaders" debate, they are already going to be pissed. If Boris doesn't do Neil, I expect some serious incoming from them, as they really don't like it when people don't respect them.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    llef said:

    If I'm reading it correctly, that model has the Tories winning Ynys Mon with 33% of the vote.
    Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on cons there.
    That could be good value (but not for me, as they won't take my bets!)

    I have Cons at 5/1 in Ynys Mon. I have it filed away away in the "WTF was I thinking?" drawer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973
    Chris said:

    Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.

    That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
    That was not the MRP. The MRP was an attempt to model at the constituency level, and was ridiculued on here for predicting (for example) that:

    - The LDs would run the Conservatives close in St Ives (which I laughed at)
    - That Labour would win Canterbury (that everybodt laughed at)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973
    Fenman said:

    Hear there is a really good poll coming out on December 12th after 10pm. Likely to be very accurate too.

    Nah, that one's rubbish. You don't get proper cross tabs. Polling like that should be reported to the BPC.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,680
    rcs1000 said:

    Was it? I remember it as being rather good.
    No, it was awful. YouGov's was very good but not Ashcroft.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    rcs1000 said:

    That's rather more of a claim to fame than most LibDem MPs.

    The old LDs had a bunch of serious people. Huhne, corrupt though he was, was serious. Clegg was serious. Charles Kennedy was serious. Paddy Ashdown was serious. That chap who used to be the MP for Yeovil was serious.

    Who is serious in the current line-up? Not Wera Hobhouse, not Elizabeth Jardine, not Jo Swinson, not that funny lady from OxWAb. Now, a fair number of the MPs are young and might mature well. But there isn't really an embarassment of riches. The LDs have to hope that someone is elected this time around who has both authority, organisational skills and charisma. (Sorry guys, I'm busy.)
    Chuka would be an excellent leader. Despite his flaws he is articulate, telegenic, persuasive. He’d also be the first BAME major party leader. A coup for the LDs.

    Sadly for them he is v unlikely to win.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    edited November 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    That was not the MRP.
    The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Chris said:


    The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.

    This I think?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973
    Pulpstar said:

    No, it was awful. YouGov's was very good but not Ashcroft.
    Ah, I forgot about Ashcroft's. (In fact I still forget about Ashcroft's. What did it say?)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374
    edited November 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Don't be silly, of course he didn't.
    Porridge is a possibility, but I suspect he's more likely to squeal if Trump really has abandoned him.

    :smile: I was joking.
    Yes, that's how you get the biggest crooks, isn't it. Key lieutenant turns stoolie. Here's hoping. Both for the world and for my wallet. I'm laying the Donald for WH2020 quite heavily now.
    You don't give him a prayer, do you?
  • Annoying that Broxtowe is not one of he seats they have on their list.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,973
    Chris said:

    The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.
    Then I'm wrong :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374
    camel said:

    I'm enjoying Feisty Kinabalu. It's like a fresh twist on an old classic.

    :smile: I'm a bit schizo.
    But "verminous", c'mon, honestly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    Chris said:
    And actually Wikipedia shows only the last 8 days' results. The YouGov page shows three weeks' results. Both the projected percentages and the projected seat numbers were remarkably stable over the final 12 days.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The B4B has ew

    Given the Tories and Labour have given the BBC the middle finger over the "leaders" debate, they are already going to be pissed. If Boris doesn't do Neil, I expect some serious incoming from them, as they really don't like it when people don't respect them.

    Rob Burley will be delighted.

    And I don't mean that sarcastically. He's got all the other leaders to do the interview on the understanding they were all doing one but put Bojo last so he could duck out.

    Well played Rob.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,214
    edited November 2019
    Andrew said:
    Definitely a contraction of the lead in the last week though! Tories down 15 seats from some unknown number to that number-15.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    edited November 2019
    Deleted
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,374
    edited November 2019
    Surely time for a "Not Like" button on here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,214
    Chris said:

    Golly gosh - is that the MRP this time that's predicting a hung parliament?

    We don't know what it's predicting. But the Tory lead in YouGov is much bigger this time, so it would be surprising if it was that close.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,784
    RobD said:

    We don't know what it's predicting. But the Tory lead in YouGov is much bigger this time, so it would be surprising if it was that close.
    Sorry - I misread the slide. It was the 2017 projection.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,680
    RobD said:
    Nothing has changed !

    Anecdotal - Newest colleague of mine would quite like to see Corbyn win. Hasn't bothered to register to vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,214
    Chris said:

    Sorry - I misread the slide. It was the 2017 projection.
    Easy there! :o
This discussion has been closed.