Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
Well as most elections are won and lost in the marginals isn't this nearly always the case? I mean that's why they are marginals.
This election is the most marginal I recall from recent memory. Between Tory seats held by a few hundred votes and Labour seats the same. It could literally go between massive Tory majority to the Tories standing still, to Labour gaining seats.
If Labour gain even a few percent it’s almost certainly going to be a Hung Parliament. And that’s before higher youth turnout + tactical voting, which if you look at Canterbury seems to be working.
CHB, your new moniker is Epson. Why? Because you're the biggest projector here.
If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least. Still it may be useful in identifying seats where the odds on Labour in particular are too long.
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.
If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
The LDs dropped 5 points in the initial week, (from 20 to 15) but have only seen their share drop very modestly from there. Sunil's weekly elbow even had then up slightly on Sunday.
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
Isn't that the irony? The worse she does, the fewer possible successors there'll be.
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
Yes , it is. Utterly verminous doesn't do it justice, actually. In the context of the anti-semitism debate it is utterly so. Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.
You were at verminous. Now it's "utterly verminous" and that still (!) doesn't do it justice. Gosh. I detect a softhead troll. Suggest you prove me wrong by apologizing profusely and exiting.
Tory candidate for Glasgow Central suspended, due to comments about Muslims. I need a spreadsheet of binned candidates, it seems to be higher than in previous elections.
Tory candidate for Glasgow Central suspended, due to comments about Muslims. I need a spreadsheet of binned candidates, it seems to be higher than in previous elections.
So that's one for holocaust denial in Aberdeen, and now one for islamophobia. What a lovely bunch the SCons are.
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
“quite politely to MY saying “no thanks..”
One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.
Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Yep - Johnson is a liar and he knows that Neil would expose his lies, as well as his inability to master any kind of brief. The surprise is that Corbyn agreed without knowing that Johnson was also tied down.
Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
“quite politely to MY saying “no thanks..”
One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!
I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.
Which ones struck you as particularly unconvincing?
It's the combination of West Bromwich East, Coventry South and Stoke-on-Trent Central that looks oddest to me.
The Lib Dem findings, conversely, look entirely possible to me.
The Tories are further behind in Coventry South than in Coventry North East - I know the seats well enough, and that it is ridiculous
Particularly when you consider who the Coventry South Labour candidate is. Isn’t Cov South and places like Earsldon a bit more middle class and possibly a bit more remain than North East?
Is an "absolute cast iron guarantee" stronger or weaker than saying "I'd rather be dead in a ditch"? Doesn't Johnson now need to say something like "I'd rather be tortured to death"?
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!
Is an "absolute cast iron guarantee" stronger or weaker than saying "I'd rather be dead in a ditch"? Doesn't Johnson now need to say something like "I'd rather be tortured to death"?
Than face Andrew Neil ?
I was thinking of his NHS pledge. But you may have a point.
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Yep - Johnson is a liar and he knows that Neil would expose his lies, as well as his inability to master any kind of brief. The surprise is that Corbyn agreed without knowing that Johnson was also tied down.
Egregious, though, from the viewpoint of balanced BBC election coverage. And, yes, very stupid of Corbyn to do it if Johnson ends up wimping out. The Neil grilling is all about damage limitation. There is no upside. It has to be both or neither. And speaking of the Beeb, Laura K's twitter handle is often reading like an arm of CCHQ. Piss poor.
If I'm reading it correctly, that model has the Tories winning Ynys Mon with 33% of the vote. Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on cons there. That could be good value (but not for me, as they won't take my bets!)
Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.
Bearsden Tories are not voting for Brexit.
All it takes is some SLab going SNP and some SCons not voting LD and the LDs have another leadership contest to run...
I'm also interested by the fact that B4B are saying vote LD in an LD/SNP marginal, and then say this in their "Scotland and NI" section: "We have made specific recommendations in some Scottish constituencies where it is possible the Conservatives could win. It is vital we vote for candidates who can stop the Tories. However, in other constituencies we have avoided giving specific advice as it is clear that pro-Europeans are likely to win regardless and we do not believe it would be helpful or desirable for us to attempt to choose between parties who are our allies in the fight against Brexit."
Lord knows I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan, but should he avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil I'd regard that as strategically a very intelligent decision. There's nothing to gain from it for him.
Agreed. He needs a very good reason to do it tho. Remember when T May ducked the debates, because she was ‘getting on with running the country’ - during an election SHE called?!?!
Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?
If I were him I'd agree to it but not let the BBC announce it until Friday. It's amusing watching Bastani and friends going wild over the injustice of it.
If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.
Still not particularly fresh then ...
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
Yes , it is. Utterly verminous doesn't do it justice, actually. In the context of the anti-semitism debate it is utterly so. Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.
You were at verminous. Now it's "utterly verminous" and that still (!) doesn't do it justice. Gosh. I detect a softhead troll. Suggest you prove me wrong by apologizing profusely and exiting.
I'm enjoying Feisty Kinabalu. It's like a fresh twist on an old classic.
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.
Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.
That's rather more of a claim to fame than most LibDem MPs.
The old LDs had a bunch of serious people. Huhne, corrupt though he was, was serious. Clegg was serious. Charles Kennedy was serious. Paddy Ashdown was serious. That chap who used to be the MP for Yeovil was serious.
Who is serious in the current line-up? Not Wera Hobhouse, not Elizabeth Jardine, not Jo Swinson, not that funny lady from OxWAb. Now, a fair number of the MPs are young and might mature well. But there isn't really an embarassment of riches. The LDs have to hope that someone is elected this time around who has both authority, organisational skills and charisma. (Sorry guys, I'm busy.)
Given the Tories and Labour have given the BBC the middle finger over the "leaders" debate, they are already going to be pissed. If Boris doesn't do Neil, I expect some serious incoming from them, as they really don't like it when people don't respect them.
If I'm reading it correctly, that model has the Tories winning Ynys Mon with 33% of the vote. Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on cons there. That could be good value (but not for me, as they won't take my bets!)
I have Cons at 5/1 in Ynys Mon. I have it filed away away in the "WTF was I thinking?" drawer.
If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.
Still not particularly fresh then ...
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
That was not the MRP. The MRP was an attempt to model at the constituency level, and was ridiculued on here for predicting (for example) that:
- The LDs would run the Conservatives close in St Ives (which I laughed at) - That Labour would win Canterbury (that everybodt laughed at)
These numbers show the LDs losing their leave voting seats (Eastbourne, North Norfolk, and struggling in Carshalton), but gaining in Remainia (Wimbledon, At Alban's, Richmond Park). They show them making next to no progress in Labour seats.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
Depends if Chukka/Luciana get in. Apart from them, the LDs are fairly anonymous.
Luciana's only claim to fame is being chased out of Liverpool by a mob of antisemitic scouse trots who said she was a red tory. Joining the LibDems really showed them up! Chuka's had more parties this year than most voters will have for Christmas though he does have shorter hair than Jo Swinson which is how we judge leaders nowadays.
That's rather more of a claim to fame than most LibDem MPs.
The old LDs had a bunch of serious people. Huhne, corrupt though he was, was serious. Clegg was serious. Charles Kennedy was serious. Paddy Ashdown was serious. That chap who used to be the MP for Yeovil was serious.
Who is serious in the current line-up? Not Wera Hobhouse, not Elizabeth Jardine, not Jo Swinson, not that funny lady from OxWAb. Now, a fair number of the MPs are young and might mature well. But there isn't really an embarassment of riches. The LDs have to hope that someone is elected this time around who has both authority, organisational skills and charisma. (Sorry guys, I'm busy.)
Chuka would be an excellent leader. Despite his flaws he is articulate, telegenic, persuasive. He’d also be the first BAME major party leader. A coup for the LDs.
If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.
Still not particularly fresh then ...
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
That was not the MRP.
The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.
Don't be silly, of course he didn't. Porridge is a possibility, but I suspect he's more likely to squeal if Trump really has abandoned him.
I was joking. Yes, that's how you get the biggest crooks, isn't it. Key lieutenant turns stoolie. Here's hoping. Both for the world and for my wallet. I'm laying the Donald for WH2020 quite heavily now. You don't give him a prayer, do you?
If this B4B MRP is using weeks old data surely it will be overstating massively the Liberal Democrats?
Yes, that struck me as well. The same may be true of tonight's YouGov MRP to some extent at least.
The YouGov is based on a single week of data.
Still not particularly fresh then ...
7000 people a day for 7 days is pretty fucking fresh. What are you wanting? Mind reading?
Last time they did a rolling version of this for 8 days. The percentages for the three main parties never changed, except for one day when the Tory share was one point different.
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
That was not the MRP.
The figures I referred to were the percentages projected by the YouGov MRP.
And actually Wikipedia shows only the last 8 days' results. The YouGov page shows three weeks' results. Both the projected percentages and the projected seat numbers were remarkably stable over the final 12 days.
Given the Tories and Labour have given the BBC the middle finger over the "leaders" debate, they are already going to be pissed. If Boris doesn't do Neil, I expect some serious incoming from them, as they really don't like it when people don't respect them.
Rob Burley will be delighted.
And I don't mean that sarcastically. He's got all the other leaders to do the interview on the understanding they were all doing one but put Bojo last so he could duck out.
Comments
Shift to Labour in the last couple of days certainly won't be reflected then. Nor will the LibDem dip.
Still it may be useful in identifying seats where the odds on Labour in particular are too long.
I think if the LDs get less than (say) 15 seats then she'll struggle. Or she would, if there were an obvious successor. Which there isn't really.
I detect a softhead troll. Suggest you prove me wrong by apologizing profusely and exiting.
I need a spreadsheet of binned candidates, it seems to be higher than in previous elections.
The Lib Dem findings, conversely, look entirely possible to me.
Tories and Lab exactly tied in Sunderland Central.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1199699727434031113
You do have your uses
No. Fucking. Way.
One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.
Terrible optics. How does Boris avoid that?
Doesn't Johnson now need to say something like "I'd rather be tortured to death"?
https://twitter.com/TheBeatWithAri/status/1199468634621566976
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/orf/
No one will believe him but many might see the funny side.
And speaking of the Beeb, Laura K's twitter handle is often reading like an arm of CCHQ. Piss poor.
Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on cons there.
That could be good value (but not for me, as they won't take my bets!)
"We have made specific recommendations in some Scottish constituencies where it is possible the Conservatives could win. It is vital we vote for candidates who can stop the Tories. However, in other constituencies we have avoided giving specific advice as it is clear that pro-Europeans are likely to win regardless and we do not believe it would be helpful or desirable for us to attempt to choose between parties who are our allies in the fight against Brexit."
That's quite interesting in itself, given that there was movement in other polls during that period.
Porridge is a possibility, but I suspect he's more likely to squeal if Trump really has abandoned him.
The old LDs had a bunch of serious people. Huhne, corrupt though he was, was serious. Clegg was serious. Charles Kennedy was serious. Paddy Ashdown was serious. That chap who used to be the MP for Yeovil was serious.
Who is serious in the current line-up? Not Wera Hobhouse, not Elizabeth Jardine, not Jo Swinson, not that funny lady from OxWAb. Now, a fair number of the MPs are young and might mature well. But there isn't really an embarassment of riches. The LDs have to hope that someone is elected this time around who has both authority, organisational skills and charisma. (Sorry guys, I'm busy.)
All he needs to say is that he was with Carrie in Pizza Hut having a one nation conservative pizza!
If he doesn't turn up then it CORBYNISTA new favourites for the election!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Coventry South Lab Maj 16.9%
- The LDs would run the Conservatives close in St Ives (which I laughed at)
- That Labour would win Canterbury (that everybodt laughed at)
Sadly for them he is v unlikely to win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model
Yes, that's how you get the biggest crooks, isn't it. Key lieutenant turns stoolie. Here's hoping. Both for the world and for my wallet. I'm laying the Donald for WH2020 quite heavily now.
You don't give him a prayer, do you?
https://web.archive.org/web/20190116233603/https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
But "verminous", c'mon, honestly.
And I don't mean that sarcastically. He's got all the other leaders to do the interview on the understanding they were all doing one but put Bojo last so he could duck out.
Well played Rob.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1199718185865535490?s=20
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1199719300543795200
It predicts that Plaid will hold Ceredigion with under 25% of the vote !
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ceredigion
Anecdotal - Newest colleague of mine would quite like to see Corbyn win. Hasn't bothered to register to vote.
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1199720705765650437?s=20