It seems to me your interpretation of where the election goes rests on your assumption of turnout for persons aged 18/24, so heavily are they in the Corbyn column.
If you think turnout there will be high, hung parliament.
Nobody is denying the US pays more fot drugs. What is fake news is that we will pay US drug prices. That isn't going to happen.
You are probably right. The US wont do a trade deal without it though, and the US trade deal was one of the supposed prizes of Brexit.
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.
The BBC are acting very badly by telling Labour that Johnson was confirmed for AN when he wasn’t .
At least if he had been confirmed then if he then pulled out he might get some bad headlines , now he can just say that his busy timetable meant he couldn’t fit it in.
So are you suggesting the Labour Party are not very good at negotiations?
I have read the various comments about the BFB MRP (and other MRPs) with some interest. Why people insist on placing any reliance on individual constituency forecasts is beyond me. Whilst these models are a big step forward in forecasting overall results, they have similar weaknesses to traditional models in looking locally. In many ways they are similar to the general linearised models used in insurance pricing (and now superseded by more sophisticated models). These used many more variables, had a dataset comprising millions (often tens of millions) of risk years (rather than tens of thousands of respondents) - and still there were significant variances between postcodes (their equivalent to constituencies) which were forecast to produce a similar result.
I suggest everyone focus on the big picture from MRPs and not get excited about individual constituencies. The variations will largely cancel out overall (although this may not be the case for smaller parties where factors not in use may become more important - the equivalent of age tails in pricing).
To answer the question in your second sentence - because of 2017.
At the time of that final YouGov MRP we were taking the projection with a huge pinch of salt. And then the results rolled round...
I don't think the YouGov MRP matters too much for betting markets - it was done (on average at least) when Con were about 12% ahead and that is going to equate to approx Con 350 seats. We all already know that. What matters much, much more is new, really up to date, polling.
All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
I’d have thought that the day before the launch of a party’s race and faith manifesto is exactly the time for a religious leader to make a comment about that party’s attitude to one particular faith/race. You also choose to ignore what the Hindu Council UK wrote about Labour - “It is a sad state of affairs that a major political party in our country which used to be a progressive socialist voice has veered towards what almost is a fascist ideology.".
Considering that the Hindu Council's objection to the Labour party is that the LP opposed Modi's closing of social media, locking up of activists and withdrawal of autonomy for Kashmir, so presumably not fascist enough for them!
That may well be so. But interesting to note nonetheless - especially when 2 years ago Labour was claiming that only they could unlock the potential of ethnic minorities. For years Labour was pretty much the default party for British Jews. Now it isn’t. Other minorities might well look at Labour and wonder: “Could we be thrown over too, if it suits a particular leader?”
Just as a point of fact, Labour stopped being supported by most British Jews before Corbyn became leader, with support dropping significantly under Ed Miliband. According to the Spectator it was due to Miliband opposing Israeli policies. Miliband was presumably not an anti Semite.
It seems to me your interpretation of where the election goes rests on your assumption of turnout for persons aged 18/24, so heavily are they in the Corbyn column.
If you think turnout there will be high, hung parliament.
Caveat on YouGov MRP: has any one pollster / polling method ever gotten the result spot on in two consecutive elections? If not, then shouldn't we discount its accuracy for that reason alone, despite the temptation to believe it because it was so good last time?
I think the other MRP in 2017 predicted a May majority of 50, but has been buried by history. It is a method but isn't magic.
A statistical method is a tool. No tool is magic, and in the wrong hands can be dangerous.
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue...and it seems all the BS is doing the trick.
I have read the various comments about the BFB MRP (and other MRPs) with some interest. Why people insist on placing any reliance on individual constituency forecasts is beyond me. Whilst these models are a big step forward in forecasting overall results, they have similar weaknesses to traditional models in looking locally. In many ways they are similar to the general linearised models used in insurance pricing (and now superseded by more sophisticated models). These used many more variables, had a dataset comprising millions (often tens of millions) of risk years (rather than tens of thousands of respondents) - and still there were significant variances between postcodes (their equivalent to constituencies) which were forecast to produce a similar result.
I suggest everyone focus on the big picture from MRPs and not get excited about individual constituencies. The variations will largely cancel out overall (although this may not be the case for smaller parties where factors not in use may become more important - the equivalent of age tails in pricing).
To answer the question in your second sentence - because of 2017.
At the time of that final YouGov MRP we were taking the projection with a huge pinch of salt. And then the results rolled round...
As I said, the local result variances largely cancel out so the overall forecast is a clear improvement on previous models - but the accuracy of individual constituency forecasts will vary significantly. And the effect on forecasts for smaller parties can be seen with PC - where the forecast said 2 seats and they won 4.
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.
Nobody is denying the US pays more fot drugs. What is fake news is that we will pay US drug prices. That isn't going to happen.
You are probably right. The US wont do a trade deal without it though, and the US trade deal was one of the supposed prizes of Brexit.
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.
I can see Maine and Arizona falling (with Alabama maybe returning to the Republicans), but other changes are a stretch - which will make a change of control tough to achieve.
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.
One imagines that Labour, with their perverse analysis, saw the unredacted us/uk trade talk documents as their election trump card, likely to have been held until the last minute, as they saw it as clinching their latest '24 hours to save the NHS " bollocks.
Today looks like both complete panic over Neil's Corbyn interviews and that they don't think they can win without a black swan event.
Hence to me c10% lead holding for Boris is very probable on election day.
The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....
You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.
Without a majority, the nightmare continues. ALL other MPs will gang together to stop Brexit and give EU citizens the vote. It’s that simple.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Quite. You'd think Labour were fighting a brilliant campaign and storming to victory.
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.
Well they clearly had a manifesto bounce, but if someone had offered you Labour making zero progress after 4 weeks of the campaign every Tory would have loved it. Lab have improved in the past few days but it appears more a bounce than a surge as things have stabilised in the past 2 days.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
The trend now looks like it will be exactly the same result as last time....
You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.
Without a majority, the nightmare continues. ALL other MPs will gang together to stop Brexit and give EU citizens the vote. It’s that simple.
Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.
Well they clearly had a manifesto bounce, but if someone had offered you Labour making zero progress after 4 weeks of the campaign every Tory would have loved it. Lab have improved in the past few days but it appears more a bounce than a surge as things have stabilised in the past 2 days.
As I keep repeating....these 10+ point leads for the Tories are all based on Northern working class voters changing the habit of a lifetime and ditching Labour for the Tories in large numbers. I wouldn't want to stake my life on that happening.
For me, if the Tories can be consistency polling 13-14% ahead, then it doesn't matter if a load of them get cold feet. But we are now talking 10% and declining.
But the passage of the document clearly suggests that in international forums the UK could complicate a trade deal if it dares to go against the US line .
That's a statement of the bleedin' obvious. To take a simple example, to do any kind of trade deal with the EU we'll have to sign up to keeping their regulations for Protected Designations of Origin (and a jolly good thing too). The US doesn't like these, because they want to be able to sell us fraudulent products masquerading as Parmesan etc. Clearly we can't please both. https://www.forbes.com/sites/larryolmsted/2012/11/19/the-dark-side-of-parmesan-cheese-what-you-dont-know-might-hurt-you/#67770a8c4645 The other crucial point to note is that, because of considerations like this, it follows that we can't finalise anything much in the way of trade deals outside the EU until we've finalised the relationship with the EU. So don't hold your breath for that US trade deal!
That's a little bit of an exaggeration: Canada, for example, is both a member of NAFTA and has the CETA agreement with the EU.
Worth remembering the law of "concentrated losses and diffuse gains"; there will be pressure from some farmers in the UK to keep Protected Designations of Origin, particularly from Stilton makers. (Coincidentally, I was quite horrified to discover the Jersey Royals I bought at the excessively expensive Erehwon were in fact not from Jersey.)
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.
Not really. A parliament accurately representing a divided country is surely a good thing.
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.
Not really. A parliament accurately representing a divided country is surely a good thing.
Not if you own a business it isn't. Even a Labour win, will their stupid re-re-re-negotiate and vote against referendum, will at least set out a a timetable where we will know that there will be a vote in 12 months.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.
Look at that trend....if that carries on it will be down to 4-5% come the 12th Dec.
Talk about shitting the bed. It could also flatline or go the other way.
The momentum is all with Labour...and it is clear they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it, no matter if it is unaffordable or untrue.
Of course they will, it's an election. But with 2 weeks to go they are a long way from a hung parliament and have just come off a nightmare 24 hours. I'm still predicting a hung parliament with 43/37 or something similar but the Tories are in a decent place 2 weeks out.
That has to be the worst result possible. We end up with years more silly buggery over Brexit and Corbynism will be set in now for the long term within the Labour Party, and the Lib Dems are still totally irrelevant.
Well they clearly had a manifesto bounce, but if someone had offered you Labour making zero progress after 4 weeks of the campaign every Tory would have loved it. Lab have improved in the past few days but it appears more a bounce than a surge as things have stabilised in the past 2 days.
As I keep repeating....these 10+ point leads for the Tories are all based on Northern working class voters changing the habit of a lifetime and ditching Labour for the Tories in large numbers. I wouldn't want to stake my life on that happening.
For me, if the Tories can be consistency polling 13-14% ahead, then it doesn't matter if a load of them get cold feet. But we are now talking 10% and declining.
Relax. The Tory share is pretty stable. We’ve yet to see a substantial shift from one main party to the other.
Not saying Labour can’t do it, but 2 weeks out that’s not the picture.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.
Francis represents the headless chicken panic wing of the Tory party.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
It will be an excellent result. It will mean that Mr Johnson will have to work with other parties to form a consensus. That is good for the country.
Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
I largely agree, different swings in different regions. There is a political realignment going on.
Remainers can perfectly safely vote LD though, no need to vote Labour. Indeed that is what I shall be doing.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
It will be an excellent result. It will mean that Mr Johnson will have to work with other parties to form a consensus. That is good for the country.
If we were talking about Cameron and Clegg having to work together, sure. But we are talking about two polar opposites. It won't get anywhere for years.
So I think the interview last night will achieve one thing, it has made all of the chatter about Labour negative again, where everyone was previously talking about Labour spending whatever and the rich paying, I think more people are realising that it won't just be the rich paying. The AS non-apology seems to have had zero traction today, but the tax admission and the borrowing for WASPIs has definitely been noticed.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
If the alternative is 5 more years of Tory hegemony, this one does.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
That would be the ideal result, both Corbyn and Johnson getting their P45's.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
That would be the ideal result, both Corbyn and Johnson getting their P45's.
They won't though, will they. And the Lib Dems will still be absolutely nowhere and a total irrelevance.
Nobody is denying the US pays more fot drugs. What is fake news is that we will pay US drug prices. That isn't going to happen.
You are probably right. The US wont do a trade deal without it though, and the US trade deal was one of the supposed prizes of Brexit.
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.
I can see Maine and Arizona falling (with Alabama maybe returning to the Republicans), but other changes are a stretch - which will make a change of control tough to achieve.
Colorado is almost certain to fall. The Dems have a more than decent chance in North Carolina too.
So I think the interview last night will achieve one thing, it has made all of the chatter about Labour negative again, where everyone was previously talking about Labour spending whatever and the rich paying, I think more people are realising that it won't just be the rich paying. The AS non-apology seems to have had zero traction today, but the tax admission and the borrowing for WASPIs has definitely been noticed.
I highly doubt with all the other stuff going on anybody has noticed that slip by Corbyn....also if you didn't realize that already you don't want to know.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.
No - I can understand it. It is a defence mechanism against the result you fear most
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.
Francis represents the headless chicken panic wing of the Tory party.
I'm seriously worried about this health. If the gaps does close - as he seems to have convinced himself it will - it might just send him over the edge. I suggested a soothing medicament, but that doesn't seem to have worked. In fact, the polar opposite if anything.
Look, nobody dreads seeing that demented old racist bastard Corbyn in number 10 more than I do, but I just do not see how he can get the numbers even if there is a hung parliament. They would need to gain at least 20 seats and the numbers are miles away from that. They got over 40% of the vote in the last election and got just 262 seats.
So I think the interview last night will achieve one thing, it has made all of the chatter about Labour negative again, where everyone was previously talking about Labour spending whatever and the rich paying, I think more people are realising that it won't just be the rich paying. The AS non-apology seems to have had zero traction today, but the tax admission and the borrowing for WASPIs has definitely been noticed.
I highly doubt with all the other stuff going on anybody has noticed that slip by Corbyn....also if you didn't realize that already you don't want to know.
The voters being targeted for the WASPI stuff are very very aware of it and basically being told that it's money that they haven't got will move some of the back away from Jez.
Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
I largely agree, different swings in different regions. There is a political realignment going on.
Remainers can perfectly safely vote LD though, no need to vote Labour. Indeed that is what I shall be doing.
In an ideal world I would like the lib dems to become the opposition and see Corbyn gone totally
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Why the obsession with his sex life? It just screams "incel."
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.
No - I can understand it. It is a defence mechanism against the result you fear most
Many will understand that
Yes I know Big G, I just thought it was obvious enough not to have to explain it.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305 Lab 245 SNP 50 LD 30 DUP 10 PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!
Con just gone 1.43. I do hope the betting move today isn't based on the MRP - the MRP really doesn't matter. Up to date polling is what matters now. I thought MORI and ComRes were due today.
.... (Coincidentally, I was quite horrified to discover the Jersey Royals I bought at the excessively expensive Erehwon were in fact not from Jersey.)
Well, quite. The EU protected origin regulations are one of the very few bits of bureaucracy which are an unmitigated, 100% Good Thing. All upside, and no downside. They've even had the side effect of dragging up quality in products which haven't yet got protection, as producers up their game in the hope of getting protection later on.
Scotland, the north and midlands, Wales, the south and London, the south east and south west all have the potential for very different swings
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
I largely agree, different swings in different regions. There is a political realignment going on.
Remainers can perfectly safely vote LD though, no need to vote Labour. Indeed that is what I shall be doing.
In an ideal world I would like the lib dems to become the opposition and see Corbyn gone totally
In an ideal world I would like the Tories to become the opposition and see Johnson Raab Patel Rees-Mogg and Cummings gone.
Worth mentioning that it was around this time in 2017 that the polls really started turning - single digit leads started to become much more common and of course 2 weeks out we had a YouGov poll with the lead at 5% which I think really started the panic.
This weekends polls will be very interesting. If they show things staying fairly stable at an average of 10% or so I think that will be very encouraging for the Tories. If others start to move ICM-wards then it’s squeaky bum time.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305 Lab 245 SNP 50 LD 30 DUP 10 PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!
Bearing all that in mind, could we have an admittedly unlikey scenario where neither party can form a government - and then call yet another election?
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
Francis, if I offered you a 10 point average Tory lead with just 2 weeks to go before the election, you would have snapped my hand off. I just don't understand your craven attitude. It's almost as though you secretly want Corbyn to win.
No - I can understand it. It is a defence mechanism against the result you fear most
Many will understand that
Yes I know Big G, I just thought it was obvious enough not to have to explain it.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305 Lab 245 SNP 50 LD 30 DUP 10 PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!
Bearing all that in mind, could we have an admittedly unlikey scenario where neither party can form a government - and then call yet another election?
There is always a government. If neither party can make up a majority then Johnson remains PM unless or until there's a No Confidence vote and if no alternative government can be found there'd be a general election 14 days later. Seems unlikely but yes it is possible.
Nobody is denying the US pays more fot drugs. What is fake news is that we will pay US drug prices. That isn't going to happen.
You are probably right. The US wont do a trade deal without it though, and the US trade deal was one of the supposed prizes of Brexit.
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.
I think there is a very real possibility of the Senate falling to the Democrats.
I can see Maine and Arizona falling (with Alabama maybe returning to the Republicans), but other changes are a stretch - which will make a change of control tough to achieve.
Colorado is almost certain to fall. The Dems have a more than decent chance in North Carolina too.
They would need all 4 (Maine, Arizona, Colorado, NC) for control - not easy.
I don't think the YouGov MRP matters too much for betting markets - it was done (on average at least) when Con were about 12% ahead and that is going to equate to approx Con 350 seats. We all already know that. What matters much, much more is new, really up to date, polling.
Wut? The last batch of surveys will have been done yesterday.
Comments
If you think turnout there will be high, hung parliament.
If not, tory majority.
TYIA
At the time of that final YouGov MRP we were taking the projection with a huge pinch of salt. And then the results rolled round...
What matters much, much more is new, really up to date, polling.
Of course he is wrong on this issue, as he is on everything.
https://imgur.com/oUjR66V
Today looks like both complete panic over Neil's Corbyn interviews and that they don't think they can win without a black swan event.
Hence to me c10% lead holding for Boris is very probable on election day.
Without a majority, the nightmare continues. ALL other MPs will gang together to stop Brexit and give EU citizens the vote. It’s that simple.
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/11/27/on-the-referendum-34-batsignal-dont-let-corbyn-sturgeon-cheat-a-second-referendum-with-millions-of-foreign-votes/
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1199739915111673857
Do you start at the peak and say there is continual falling in the line?
Or do you start at the start and say there was a Tory bounce that has faded away and there has been a reversion to mean?
I have no idea how any poll or poll of polls can predict the actual result. Personally I think it is going to be close with a small majority for Boris
I would suggest the key is those remainers who despise Corbyn as much as I do but think voting labour gives them a path to a referendum and to ensure Corbyn is impotent to do anything. It is a dangerous path to tread as it could just give Corbyn power
For me, if the Tories can be consistency polling 13-14% ahead, then it doesn't matter if a load of them get cold feet. But we are now talking 10% and declining.
Worth remembering the law of "concentrated losses and diffuse gains"; there will be pressure from some farmers in the UK to keep Protected Designations of Origin, particularly from Stilton makers. (Coincidentally, I was quite horrified to discover the Jersey Royals I bought at the excessively expensive Erehwon were in fact not from Jersey.)
Not saying Labour can’t do it, but 2 weeks out that’s not the picture.
Remainers can perfectly safely vote LD though, no need to vote Labour. Indeed that is what I shall be doing.
Went in at 1.95 so price has tightened considerably since then, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
Also went in on LD at 5-9.99% at 23. It's now 6.6.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Many will understand that
Look, nobody dreads seeing that demented old racist bastard Corbyn in number 10 more than I do, but I just do not see how he can get the numbers even if there is a hung parliament. They would need to gain at least 20 seats and the numbers are miles away from that. They got over 40% of the vote in the last election and got just 262 seats.
So it could be that 20% of votes have been cast already by this time next week.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305
Lab 245
SNP 50
LD 30
DUP 10
PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!
I do hope the betting move today isn't based on the MRP - the MRP really doesn't matter.
Up to date polling is what matters now.
I thought MORI and ComRes were due today.
The EU protected origin regulations are one of the very few bits of bureaucracy which are an unmitigated, 100% Good Thing. All upside, and no downside. They've even had the side effect of dragging up quality in products which haven't yet got protection, as producers up their game in the hope of getting protection later on.
This weekends polls will be very interesting. If they show things staying fairly stable at an average of 10% or so I think that will be very encouraging for the Tories. If others start to move ICM-wards then it’s squeaky bum time.
The first time we will ever have voted for Boris!!!!
It gives better returns than Tory majority, and the Tory voting coalition is very stable.
I’m as confident as I can be about that one and I think it should be down at 1.4-1.5.
Seems unlikely but yes it is possible.
I would.take.any profits now if you have them..I reckon it will show another hung parliament
Not sure if this means 9 on top of current total or 9 in addition to where they already were?