Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.
Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.
Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.
Yeah go on, smear him, cover up your boys racism like a good drone.
Minor move on the Spreadex spread for the Brexit Party.
Now up to 2.5-4. A big increase though on where they were yesterday. Wonder if the MRP is likely to have them down as winning some individual constituencies and it's beginning to leak out?
Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.
Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.
Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.
So what. Numerous Archbishops of Canterbury have openly supported the Labour Party and criticised almost every Tory government I can remember. The Church and Nation Committee of the Church of Scotland used to be the Labour Party in Scotland at prayer.
Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.
It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.
Er, what about Churchill using all those leaks from the civil service and military during the 1930s?
Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"
As your twelfth post on PB that is pretty pitiful. If you are going to peddle such stuff here you might at least make more of an effort with your spelling and grammar.
Oh dear, don't like the message shoot the messenger,says it all..
So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.
Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.
A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.
Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.
Vote early, vote often....it would be funny if we didn't have people openly talking about voting in person and via postal vote as a student, polling cards sent out to 16/17 year olds and now this.
And of course, if Jezza wins, it is votes for everybody with zero checks.
Edinburgh West: just got a v small bet on Tories at 33/1. Looks way over-priced to me. Anyone with any insight on that constituency?
Good bet. Unlikely but not 33-1. Would require CON to win 20 seats in Scotland but that could happen as unionist LAB voters wake up to vote with CON. More likely the more coverage the CORBYNISTA extremist Sturgeon gets, as per her 'manifesto' presentation this morning!
Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...
You may have ticked a box to subscribe to the thread. I did that once by accident and got a hundred emails within an hour. You need to unsubscribe to the thread [or wait for a new thread but that could be a thousand emails later].
You can't stop a majority of that size with tactical voting. Deliberate tactical voting will save/win a few seats and unintentional tactical voting will do the same. But there will be far more cases where seats are lost/not won due to tactical voting. It will only work where everyone makes the same decision and clearly in somewhere like Kensington that won't be the case.
Difficult but not impossible so long as the Con lead is in single digits. Depends how determined and smart people are. Evidence of that is generally scant, I grant you, but maybe late in the day something clicks.
Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...
You may have ticked a box to subscribe to the thread. I did that once by accident and got a hundred emails within an hour. You need to unsubscribe to the thread [or wait for a new thread but that could be a thousand emails later].
So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.
Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.
A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.
Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.
We agree on something!
You're absolutely right. The largest and most expensive poll in history was also the most inaccurate!
2.4 million Readers' Digest respondents produced the infamous poll predicting that Landon would beat Roosevelt 57% to 43%. In fact, Roosevelt beat Landon 62% to 38%!
The far smaller Gallup poll was way more accurate.
The heart of the problem was selection bias and nonresponse bias.
I have a BIG concern that pollsters are still failing to connect with mobile phone users (who uses a landline anymore except old people?) and young people.
Think so. Also worth bearing in mind that whilst MRP is good it’s not exactly John Curtice’s exit poll so, as I think Pulpstar said, it’ll be more interesting to see where the votes are gathering and where they are not.
Thanks. Yes, NOTHING beats the great Curtice exit poll. I'm guessing YouGov are doing 3 of these. Tonight, next Wed, then eve of poll on the 11th.
Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.
Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.
Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.
Balls. More Corbynista lies.
If you want to say that the Chief Rabbi is a partisan liar and that the jews have nothing to complain about then why not just say it openly.
B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.
St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.
Richmond Park is an easy LD gain.
Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.
Oooh, Tory Gain of Sheffield Hallam when LDs have assumed its in the bag would be hilarious.
Just had our first leaflet of the campaign here in Maidenhead from the LDs which quotes the Best for Britain MRP (LDs a mere 17% behind).
It must be very out of date now though as it still includes the Brexit party who aren't standing here! I suspect the Yougov MRP will show Theresa home and hosed (she is still very popular locally and I would expect her to win by around 15k with the LDs moving back up to second)
Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
Balls. More Corbynista lies. If you want to say that the Chief Rabbi is a partisan liar and that the jews have nothing to complain about then why not just say it openly. Verminous.
Softhead trolling not welcome. It is not "verminous" to suggest that someone's open support of Boris Johnson is relevant in assessing whether there is an element of partisanship in their intervention in an election campaign in which Boris Johnson is a leading participant.
Balls. More Corbynista lies. If you want to say that the Chief Rabbi is a partisan liar and that the jews have nothing to complain about then why not just say it openly. Verminous.
Softhead trolling not welcome. It is not "verminous" to suggest that someone's open support of Boris Johnson is relevant in assessing whether there is an element of partisanship in their intervention in an election campaign in which Boris Johnson is a leading participant.
Yes , it is. Utterly verminous doesn't do it justice, actually. In the context of the anti-semitism debate it is utterly so.
Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.
So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.
Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.
A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.
Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.
Yeah, 270,000 responses that went into DataPraxis would be the equivalent of over 5 weeks of YouGov MRP data as they do 7000ish a day for their model.
Edinburgh West: just got a v small bet on Tories at 33/1. Looks way over-priced to me. Anyone with any insight on that constituency?
Waste of money.
Tories are putting zero resources into long-shots like EdW. They are fighting tooth and nail to hold on to what they’ve got.
Lib Dems are also fighting tooth and nail to hold on to W Dunb and EdW and to attempt to gain perhaps 3 other seats (O&S and Caith are safe as houses). EdW is hooching with SLD activists, and cash. The incumbent MP is a total turkey, but they are the only Unionist game in town.
SNP fight a great ground game, but if this is an SNP re-gain then the Unionist vote would have utterly collapsed. Can’t see it.
Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
Well as most elections are won and lost in the marginals isn't this nearly always the case? I mean that's why they are marginals.
Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.
It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.
Er, what about Churchill using all those leaks from the civil service and military during the 1930s?
OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE isn't actually that sensitive. It's only one level above OFFICIAL the lowest level of classification. It can be sent by Royal Mail but not unsecured email. It is just stuff they'd rather that someone without a business need didn't see.
Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.
It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.
Er, what about Churchill using all those leaks from the civil service and military during the 1930s?
OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE isn't actually that sensitive. It's only one level above OFFICIAL the lowest level of classification. It can be sent by Royal Mail but not unsecured email. It is just stuff they'd rather that someone without a business need didn't see.
A bit like US "Top Secret", where millions of people can access it.
Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases
Well as most elections are won and lost in the marginals isn't this nearly always the case? I mean that's why they are marginals.
This election is the most marginal I recall from recent memory. Between Tory seats held by a few hundred votes and Labour seats the same. It could literally go between massive Tory majority to the Tories standing still, to Labour gaining seats.
If Labour gain even a few percent it’s almost certainly going to be a Hung Parliament. And that’s before higher youth turnout + tactical voting, which if you look at Canterbury seems to be working.
Yeah, 270,000 responses that went into DataPraxis would be the equivalent of over 5 weeks of YouGov MRP data as they do 7000ish a day for their model.
The 270k was pretty much my point - ie that it suggests they might not just be using recent data, but from previous elections.
The temporal component is something traditional MRP models haven't been good at handling, but if it can done properly there's plenty potential extra information there. Possibly more elections will be needed, YouGov only have data on the last four.
All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
Why not deal with the message rather than attacking the messenger?
Comments
Now up to 2.5-4. A big increase though on where they were yesterday. Wonder if the MRP is likely to have them down as winning some individual constituencies and it's beginning to leak out?
St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.
Fine for half a dozen or so seats you are interested in, but no good whatsoever for flitting around 650 seats.
Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.
And of course, if Jezza wins, it is votes for everybody with zero checks.
Vote SNP, LD or GRN get CORBYNISTA/STURGEON!
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/st-albans/
Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.
Interestingly it says Tory gain and Tory gain [narrowly] even with 30% extra tactical voting.
Not clear if Boris Johnson has agreed to interview Andrew Neil.
Plymouth postal vote problem just up.
You're absolutely right. The largest and most expensive poll in history was also the most inaccurate!
2.4 million Readers' Digest respondents produced the infamous poll predicting that Landon would beat Roosevelt 57% to 43%. In fact, Roosevelt beat Landon 62% to 38%!
The far smaller Gallup poll was way more accurate.
The heart of the problem was selection bias and nonresponse bias.
I have a BIG concern that pollsters are still failing to connect with mobile phone users (who uses a landline anymore except old people?) and young people.
https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html
If you want to say that the Chief Rabbi is a partisan liar and that the jews have nothing to complain about then why not just say it openly.
Verminous.
It must be very out of date now though as it still includes the Brexit party who aren't standing here! I suspect the Yougov MRP will show Theresa home and hosed (she is still very popular locally and I would expect her to win by around 15k with the LDs moving back up to second)
It is not "verminous" to suggest that someone's open support of Boris Johnson is relevant in assessing whether there is an element of partisanship in their intervention in an election campaign in which Boris Johnson is a leading participant.
Address his comments if you have a beef with them. Play the ball not the man.
How were things 5 weeks ago?
Tories are putting zero resources into long-shots like EdW. They are fighting tooth and nail to hold on to what they’ve got.
Lib Dems are also fighting tooth and nail to hold on to W Dunb and EdW and to attempt to gain perhaps 3 other seats (O&S and Caith are safe as houses). EdW is hooching with SLD activists, and cash. The incumbent MP is a total turkey, but they are the only Unionist game in town.
SNP fight a great ground game, but if this is an SNP re-gain then the Unionist vote would have utterly collapsed. Can’t see it.
Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?
If Labour gain even a few percent it’s almost certainly going to be a Hung Parliament. And that’s before higher youth turnout + tactical voting, which if you look at Canterbury seems to be working.
The temporal component is something traditional MRP models haven't been good at handling, but if it can done properly there's plenty potential extra information there. Possibly more elections will be needed, YouGov only have data on the last four.
B4B MRP has it as an easy Tory hold
Predicting a fall in the vote for the LIB Dems in Edinburgh West is mental.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
I'm a little sceptical of any polls, despite the apparent success of MRP in 2017.