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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ratings for Swinson and the latest voting numbers

Deltapoll of parents of school age children finds LAB with 14% lead amongst mums but the Tories 7% ahead amongst dads pic.twitter.com/RNWaMqK0ii

Read the full story here

OnlyLivingBoy

Mum always knows best.

Ave_it

Nearly all the polls say 43% CON 32% LAB.

In 1997 when I was LAB all the polls said CON 31%. I was sure they would get more. But they got 31% - in retrospect it was obvious this would happen.

So will it be 43%-32% this time or will the MRP herald the start of the CORBYNISTA surge?

Marcus01

There were oy 301 dads in the poll - could that affect the accuracy it's been heavily weighted?

Marcus01

I should of course have said "first" first. Sorry.

Marcus01

Ave_it said:

Nearly all the polls say 43% CON 32% LAB.

In 1997 when I was LAB all the polls said CON 31%. I was sure they would get more. But they got 31% - in retrospect it was obvious this would happen.

So will it be 43%-32% this time or will the MRP herald the start of the CORBYNISTA surge?

After last night I should think labour will be relieved to get 31%

Gabs3

The level of outright lying from Labour today is amazing.

https://www.twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1199648397000683521

Even if the papers released showed what was claimed, they are from before Boris Johnson was Prime Minister. They are lying unashamedly and this shows how a Corbyn government would operate.

contrarian

Marcus01 said:

There were oy 301 dads in the poll - could that affect the accuracy it's been heavily weighted?

Some of the dads maybe.......er........only get the kids for one week-end every two weeks.

That's modern Britain, after all.

numbertwelve

As I said on the previous thread, the Tories are stuck on 40 or above. The only way labour can now get this back to HP territory are a) to squeeze the LDs further or b) get some Tories into the LAB column.

The first looks to me to be the most likely. I don’t think the Tory vote is so large because of a sizeable portion of swing voters, I think it’s a pretty firm pro Brexit and/or anti Corbyn cohort. Time to go finishing in the yellow pond again, but surely the LDs can’t be squeezed much further?

OnlyLivingBoy

contrarian said:

Marcus01 said:

There were oy 301 dads in the poll - could that affect the accuracy it's been heavily weighted?

Some of the dads maybe.......er........only get the kids for one week-end every two weeks.

That's modern Britain, after all.

Some of the dads might not even know how many kids they have.

eek

numbertwelve said:

As I said on the previous thread, the Tories are stuck on 40 or above. The only way labour can now get this back to HP territory are a) to squeeze the LDs further or b) get some Tories into the LAB column.

The first looks to me to be the most likely. I don’t think the Tory vote is so large because of a sizeable portion of swing voters, I think it’s a pretty firm pro Brexit and/or anti Corbyn cohort. Time to go finishing in the yellow pond again, but surely the LDs can’t be squeezed much further?

It does seem that the combination of USA and NHS has got Tory posters rather worried.

It seems to be hitting exactly the nerve I thought it would.

numbertwelve

eek said:

numbertwelve said:

As I said on the previous thread, the Tories are stuck on 40 or above. The only way labour can now get this back to HP territory are a) to squeeze the LDs further or b) get some Tories into the LAB column.

The first looks to me to be the most likely. I don’t think the Tory vote is so large because of a sizeable portion of swing voters, I think it’s a pretty firm pro Brexit and/or anti Corbyn cohort. Time to go finishing in the yellow pond again, but surely the LDs can’t be squeezed much further?

It does seem that the combination of USA and NHS has got Tory posters rather worried.

It seems to be hitting exactly the nerve I thought it would.

Huh?

dr_spyn

Johnson and the woman problem.

https://twitter.com/TheChiswickCal/status/1199637355516301315

Essexit

Gabs3 said:

The level of outright lying from Labour today is amazing.

https://www.twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1199648397000683521

Even if the papers released showed what was claimed, they are from before Boris Johnson was Prime Minister. They are lying unashamedly and this shows how a Corbyn government would operate.

Anything to move the agenda on from yesterday. But they've played what should have been their last card too early, with plenty of time before pulling day for it to be exposed as nonsense and/or forgotten.

BluerBlue

dr_spyn said:

Johnson and the woman problem.

https://twitter.com/TheChiswickCal/status/1199637355516301315

But evidently many would, and have!

NorthCadboll

Just caught the 1pm news on SKY and Diana Magnier who is following Team Corbyn says that having looked at the document he was shouting about this morning, far from what he claimed it contains very few references to the NHS and clearly shows the USA recognises the sensitivity of the NHS to UK citizens. Meanwhile back at the ranch Nicola Sturgeon stands in front of a podium proclaiming "Stop Brexit" and she clearly doesn't think she can. Why else would she be trying to parachute her top MEP from Brussels into the Stirling seat on 12th December?

GIN1138

Ave_it said:

Nearly all the polls say 43% CON 32% LAB.

In 1997 when I was LAB all the polls said CON 31%. I was sure they would get more. But they got 31% - in retrospect it was obvious this would happen.

So will it be 43%-32% this time or will the MRP herald the start of the CORBYNISTA surge?

@Ave_It was once... Labour??????

FrancisUrquhart

Tory response....

“Jeremy Corbyn is getting desperate and is out-and-out lying to the public about what these documents contain. He has always believed in conspiracy theories – which is why he has failed to crack down on the scourge of antisemitism in his party. This is the man that has caused huge offence by blaming an imaginary ‘Zionist lobby’ for society’s ills and now he has decided to smear UK officials too.

“People should not believe a word that he says – this stunt is simply a smokescreen for the fact that he has no plan for Brexit and that he has been forced to admit that he wants to increase taxes for millions of families.

“As we have consistently made clear: the NHS will not be on the table in any future trade deal and the price that the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table. This sort of conspiracy theory fuelled nonsense is not befitting of the leader of a major political party

Could this descend into a really dirty fight now?

YBarddCwsc

Rather an amusing Voodoo poll on the WASPI women on Martin Lewis' site

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/26-11-2019/should-1950s-waspi-women-be-compensated-

It is broken down according to age and gender.

The poll for "I'm female of the affected age (59-69)" is very different to the other age groups/genders.

Sean_F

dr_spyn said:

Johnson and the woman problem.

https://twitter.com/TheChiswickCal/status/1199637355516301315

That's quite a funny response

FrancisUrquhart

NorthCadboll said:

Just caught the 1pm news on SKY and Diana Magnier who is following Team Corbyn says that having looked at the document he was shouting about this morning, far from what he claimed it contains very few references to the NHS and clearly shows the USA recognises the sensitivity of the NHS to UK citizens. Meanwhile back at the ranch Nicola Sturgeon stands in front of a podium proclaiming "Stop Brexit" and she clearly doesn't think she can. Why else would she be trying to parachute her top MEP from Brussels into the Stirling seat on 12th December?

BBC are giving Jezza some cover with basically saying this is a bit of truth in it.

Either way, it is job done for Labour. They get the headline they want, regardless of the lack of evidence.

Sean_F

FPT@ Casino Royale,

It's things like these Ipsos Mori ratings, and the ratings in the Lord Ashcroft poll that reassure me. I don't think this will be 1983 all over again, but I think it will be 1979.

The innards of the Yougov poll also show Johnson is far better rated than Corbyn, and the Conservatives have strong leads on most issues.

BluerBlue

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tory response....

“Jeremy Corbyn is getting desperate and is out-and-out lying to the public about what these documents contain. He has always believed in conspiracy theories – which is why he has failed to crack down on the scourge of antisemitism in his party. This is the man that has caused huge offence by blaming an imaginary ‘Zionist lobby’ for society’s ills and now he has decided to smear UK officials too.

“People should not believe a word that he says – this stunt is simply a smokescreen for the fact that he has no plan for Brexit and that he has been forced to admit that he wants to increase taxes for millions of families.

“As we have consistently made clear: the NHS will not be on the table in any future trade deal and the price that the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table. This sort of conspiracy theory fuelled nonsense is not befitting of the leader of a major political party

Could this descend into a really dirty fight now?

It should - Labour has basically declared war with this utter horseshit. The Tories should now send out cabinet ministers every day to give a statement and dossier: "Jeremy Corbyn supports Britain's enemies - here is the written proof!". It doesn't matter how rude and uncomfortable it is, Labour will be forced to spend the rest of the election denying it.

LOVE that Tory response, by the way - it's very strong. More of this!

dr_spyn

Sean_F said:

dr_spyn said:

Johnson and the woman problem.

https://twitter.com/TheChiswickCal/status/1199637355516301315

That's quite a funny response

Election edition of Snog, Marry, Avoid.

It was good to hear some laughter.

wooliedyed

Evening Standard run with Boz apologising for Islamophobia and Corbyn's stormtrooper shouts down a Jewish journalist. It's a good look.

GIN1138

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tory response....

“Jeremy Corbyn is getting desperate and is out-and-out lying to the public about what these documents contain. He has always believed in conspiracy theories – which is why he has failed to crack down on the scourge of antisemitism in his party. This is the man that has caused huge offence by blaming an imaginary ‘Zionist lobby’ for society’s ills and now he has decided to smear UK officials too.

“People should not believe a word that he says – this stunt is simply a smokescreen for the fact that he has no plan for Brexit and that he has been forced to admit that he wants to increase taxes for millions of families.

“As we have consistently made clear: the NHS will not be on the table in any future trade deal and the price that the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table. This sort of conspiracy theory fuelled nonsense is not befitting of the leader of a major political party

Could this descend into a really dirty fight now?

About time the gloves came off...

Philip_Thompson

Interesting that a higher percentage of mum's either will not vote or don't know.

If the numbers are weighted 466 male and 526 female then I make that 992 not 1000. Where have the other 8 gone? Unweighted the numbers don't sum up to 1000 either.

I wonder why they've weighted to 53% female rather than 50/50? Also why 69% of the unweighted sample were female and only 30% of the unweighted sample were male.

LostPassword

This does show how the headline figures obscure what's happening across the country. People of working age are split, but the over-65s are so strongly for Johnson that it produces a large overall lead.
I think it's really quite incredible that, if voting was restricted to under-65s it would appear to be inevitable that Labour would win the election. It's not exactly a small or unimportant age group.
Tories often like to talk about the philosophical problem of one part of society living off the hard work and tax revenue of another, but it's hard not to see that happening with this deep split in voting by age. The oldies are voting to impose policies on those of working age.
No good can come of this.

wooliedyed

LostPassword said:

This does show how the headline figures obscure what's happening across the country. People of working age are split, but the over-65s are so strongly for Johnson that it produces a large overall lead.
I think it's really quite incredible that, if voting was restricted to under-65s it would appear to be inevitable that Labour would win the election. It's not exactly a small or unimportant age group.
Tories often like to talk about the philosophical problem of one part of society living off the hard work and tax revenue of another, but it's hard not to see that happening with this deep split in voting by age. The oldies are voting to impose policies on those of working age.
No good can come of this.

You could say the youth who have contributed least are trying to stop what the older, who have contributed most, want. Neither argument has any validity imo

alb1on

OnlyLivingBoy said:

contrarian said:

Marcus01 said:

There were oy 301 dads in the poll - could that affect the accuracy it's been heavily weighted?

Some of the dads maybe.......er........only get the kids for one week-end every two weeks.

That's modern Britain, after all.

Some of the dads might not even know how many kids they have.

Boris was part of the sample?

Marcus01

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

HYUFD

dr_spyn said:

Johnson and the woman problem.

https://twitter.com/TheChiswickCal/status/1199637355516301315

Have campaigned for Seena, she is excellent

148grss

https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/11/27/election-2019-the-ethics-of-voting-for-the-lesser-evil

peter_from_putney

LostPassword said:

This does show how the headline figures obscure what's happening across the country. People of working age are split, but the over-65s are so strongly for Johnson that it produces a large overall lead.
I think it's really quite incredible that, if voting was restricted to under-65s it would appear to be inevitable that Labour would win the election. It's not exactly a small or unimportant age group.
Tories often like to talk about the philosophical problem of one part of society living off the hard work and tax revenue of another, but it's hard not to see that happening with this deep split in voting by age. The oldies are voting to impose policies on those of working age.
No good can come of this.

Why would you wish to restrict voting to the under-65s, thereby excluding those who have paid taxes all their working lives and are least likely to be living off the state? One might equally argue that voting should be restricted to the over-35s ... what sort of GE result would that produce?

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1199639844097531904?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1199634868507947009?s=20

nova

YBarddCwsc said:

Rather an amusing Voodoo poll on the WASPI women on Martin Lewis' site

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/26-11-2019/should-1950s-waspi-women-be-compensated-

It is broken down according to age and gender.

The poll for "I'm female of the affected age (59-69)" is very different to the other age groups/genders.

One advantage of self-selecting polls is that you can get some idea about who cares. Only 500 people in the group most against voted, whereas 15000 voted in the group most affected. Suggests it's not a vote loser yet.

matt

peter_from_putney said:

LostPassword said:

This does show how the headline figures obscure what's happening across the country. People of working age are split, but the over-65s are so strongly for Johnson that it produces a large overall lead.
I think it's really quite incredible that, if voting was restricted to under-65s it would appear to be inevitable that Labour would win the election. It's not exactly a small or unimportant age group.
Tories often like to talk about the philosophical problem of one part of society living off the hard work and tax revenue of another, but it's hard not to see that happening with this deep split in voting by age. The oldies are voting to impose policies on those of working age.
No good can come of this.

Why would you wish to restrict voting to the under-65s, thereby excluding those who have paid taxes all their working lives and are least likely to be living off the state? One might equally argue that voting should be restricted to the over-35s ... what sort of GE result would that produce?

If we had a different electorate there would be a different result is the rallying cry of the losing politician.

NeilVW

Pulpstar said:

Paddy again:
I know the Southwest is a Brexity place but Lib Dems 5-6 in St Ives ?
There is SOME swing towards them from the Tories and it's only a 312 vote margin to overcome.

My constituency. Re-re-tread Andrew George trying for a second time to retake the seat he lost in 2015.
I don’t really have a feel for how things are going, but UK Elect, Gina Miller and Baxter all have Derek Thomas being re-elected by a few percentage points. The YouGov MRP will be interesting.
No Brexit Party or UKIP, and oddly no Remain alliance here, as the Greens are standing.

alb1on

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

Which seat? The only ultra marginal (based on 2017) is Richmond Park and the LDs have diverted resource from that seat as it is already in the bag.

LostPassword

peter_from_putney said:

LostPassword said:

This does show how the headline figures obscure what's happening across the country. People of working age are split, but the over-65s are so strongly for Johnson that it produces a large overall lead.
I think it's really quite incredible that, if voting was restricted to under-65s it would appear to be inevitable that Labour would win the election. It's not exactly a small or unimportant age group.
Tories often like to talk about the philosophical problem of one part of society living off the hard work and tax revenue of another, but it's hard not to see that happening with this deep split in voting by age. The oldies are voting to impose policies on those of working age.
No good can come of this.

Why would you wish to restrict voting to the under-65s, thereby excluding those who have paid taxes all their working lives and are least likely to be living off the state? One might equally argue that voting should be restricted to the over-35s ... what sort of GE result would that produce?

I'm not suggesting we restrict votes - I'm pointing out that there are two different debates in the country threy are massively out of kilter with each other. It's almost like old people and young people form separate demos.
In the past these were much closer. It's a problem now they're not.

IanB2

I

peter_from_putney said:

LostPassword said:

This does show how the headline figures obscure what's happening across the country. People of working age are split, but the over-65s are so strongly for Johnson that it produces a large overall lead.
I think it's really quite incredible that, if voting was restricted to under-65s it would appear to be inevitable that Labour would win the election. It's not exactly a small or unimportant age group.
Tories often like to talk about the philosophical problem of one part of society living off the hard work and tax revenue of another, but it's hard not to see that happening with this deep split in voting by age. The oldies are voting to impose policies on those of working age.
No good can come of this.

Why would you wish to restrict voting to the under-65s, thereby excluding those who have paid taxes all their working lives and are least likely to be living off the state? One might equally argue that voting should be restricted to the over-35s ... what sort of GE result would that produce?

It simply illustrates the shortcomings of democracy, not that there is any better alternative.

A country does have a problem if a deciding mass of voters are retired on fixed incomes and feel themselves insulated from the prospects for the economy that supports those of working age. Brexit is likely to feature in exam essay questions for many years to come.

IanB2

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

As your twelfth post on PB that is pretty pitiful. If you are going to peddle such stuff here you might at least make more of an effort with your spelling and grammar.

alb1on

NeilVW said:

Pulpstar said:

Paddy again:
I know the Southwest is a Brexity place but Lib Dems 5-6 in St Ives ?
There is SOME swing towards them from the Tories and it's only a 312 vote margin to overcome.

My constituency. Re-re-tread Andrew George trying for a second time to retake the seat he lost in 2015.
I don’t really have a feel for how things are going, but UK Elect, Gina Miller and Baxter all have Derek Thomas being re-elected by a few percentage points. The YouGov MRP will be interesting.
No Brexit Party or UKIP, and oddly no Remain alliance here, as the Greens are standing.

I thought the LDs would struggle to regain this seat, but the stories about Derek Thomas' religious beliefs, which make him sound like an ultra-Christian version of David Icke, will not help the Conservatives.

NorthCadboll

LostPassword said:

This does show how the headline figures obscure what's happening across the country. People of working age are split, but the over-65s are so strongly for Johnson that it produces a large overall lead.
I think it's really quite incredible that, if voting was restricted to under-65s it would appear to be inevitable that Labour would win the election. It's not exactly a small or unimportant age group.
Tories often like to talk about the philosophical problem of one part of society living off the hard work and tax revenue of another, but it's hard not to see that happening with this deep split in voting by age. The oldies are voting to impose policies on those of working age.
No good can come of this.

or you could argue that the over 65's remember how fucked the UK was under Labour and its union masters under Wilson and Callaghan and the famous attack by Neil Kinnock on Labour run councils destroying jobs and services in the 1980s! They also remember Corbyn the traitor sucking up to IRA leaders like Adams and McGuinness when their military wing was murdering British men, women and children. I was meant to be in the Grand Hotel in Brighton but was stuck in Inverness with work. My friends Donald and Muriel MacLean were not so lucky. The bomb was planted in their bathroom and Muriel took a week to die from her injuries. I and many other older people would have charged Corbyn with High Treason and like me would happily have pulled the trap door lever on the gallows from which he should have been hanged. The man has spent his life sucking up to the enemies of this country and his opinions have never changed as we saw with his reaction to the Salisbury poisonings last year!

Verulamius

Poster update from St Albans.

I have finally spotted a Conservative poster! From a distance it looked like an estate agent board!

More Lib Dem poster sites than normal and fewer Labour ones.

Scrapheap_as_was

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1199686801872621568?s=20

148grss

Verulamius said:

Poster update from St Albans.

I have finally spotted a Conservative poster! From a distance it looked like an estate agent board!

More Lib Dem poster sites than normal and fewer Labour ones.

You can see a good half dozen LD posterboards from the Lab HQ on Alma Road; I was waiting for the bus there the other night and found it quite funny.

OnlyLivingBoy

Philip_Thompson said:

Interesting that a higher percentage of mum's either will not vote or don't know.

If the numbers are weighted 466 male and 526 female then I make that 992 not 1000. Where have the other 8 gone? Unweighted the numbers don't sum up to 1000 either.

I wonder why they've weighted to 53% female rather than 50/50? Also why 69% of the unweighted sample were female and only 30% of the unweighted sample were male.

I assume the weighting reflects fact that more women than men are parents (in the active sense of the word rather than the Boris Johnson sense of being a glorified sperm donor).
I thought polls always showed more female than male don't knows, owing to the male tendency to appear over-confident in their opinions.

Jason

FrancisUrquhart said:

NorthCadboll said:

Just caught the 1pm news on SKY and Diana Magnier who is following Team Corbyn says that having looked at the document he was shouting about this morning, far from what he claimed it contains very few references to the NHS and clearly shows the USA recognises the sensitivity of the NHS to UK citizens. Meanwhile back at the ranch Nicola Sturgeon stands in front of a podium proclaiming "Stop Brexit" and she clearly doesn't think she can. Why else would she be trying to parachute her top MEP from Brussels into the Stirling seat on 12th December?

BBC are giving Jezza some cover with basically saying this is a bit of truth in it.

Either way, it is job done for Labour. They get the headline they want, regardless of the lack of evidence.

It's only job done if people believe it, though. If it's exposed as a bare faced lie - which it is - then Corbyn will face exactly the same criticisms that Boris has - that he is a liar and unstrustworthy (as well as being an anti Jewish racist and economic illiterate). Soothing medicament, Francis.

NorthCadboll

Just spotted this, has it been commented upon on here yet?


John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
8m

Updated @BestForBritain MRP poll, 39k sample 15 Oct-24 Nov: Con 366 (majority 82), Lab 199 gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc826…



6
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6
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John Rentoul

@JohnRentoul
This MRP poll, by Focaldata for @BestForBritain's tactical voting website, has come out before @YouGov's MRP at 10pm

1:46pm · 27 Nov 2019 · Twitter Web App

Marcus01

IanB2 said:

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

As your twelfth post on PB that is pretty pitiful. If you are going to peddle such stuff here you might at least make more of an effort with your spelling and grammar.

Thanks it's not my 12 post I used to be a parliamentary candidate posting t here regularly. I'm sorry about the spelling but I'm doing my best on the mobile while walking the streets. As always you are free to ignore my comments if you wish.

NorthCadboll

Marcus01 said:

IanB2 said:

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

As your twelfth post on PB that is pretty pitiful. If you are going to peddle such stuff here you might at least make more of an effort with your spelling and grammar.

Thanks it's not my 12 post I used to be a parliamentary candidate posting t here regularly. I'm sorry about the spelling but I'm doing my best on the mobile while walking the streets. As always you are free to ignore my comments if you wish.

Indeed if you are the Marcus I assume you are, you were another of the early members of the PB Community and we remember your Torbay days.

GIN1138

NorthCadboll said:

Just spotted this, has it been commented upon on here yet?


John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
8m

Updated @BestForBritain MRP poll, 39k sample 15 Oct-24 Nov: Con 366 (majority 82), Lab 199 gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc826…



6
Reply

6
Retweet

11
Like

More options


John Rentoul

@JohnRentoul
This MRP poll, by Focaldata for @BestForBritain's tactical voting website, has come out before @YouGov's MRP at 10pm

1:46pm · 27 Nov 2019 · Twitter Web App

I'll wait for YouGov I think...

danielmawbs

YBarddCwsc said:

Rather an amusing Voodoo poll on the WASPI women on Martin Lewis' site

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/26-11-2019/should-1950s-waspi-women-be-compensated-

It is broken down according to age and gender.

The poll for "I'm female of the affected age (59-69)" is very different to the other age groups/genders.

A very favourable write up if the issue with respect to WASPE women.

Not surprising that majority of site voters favour an uncosted bung, but interesting numbers suggesting it’s not doing Labour any harm especially among women of all ages.

(I like the new upgrade, it finally works again on my iPhone so I can comment)

IanB2

Marcus01 said:

IanB2 said:

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

As your twelfth post on PB that is pretty pitiful. If you are going to peddle such stuff here you might at least make more of an effort with your spelling and grammar.

Thanks it's not my 12 post I used to be a parliamentary candidate posting t here regularly. I'm sorry about the spelling but I'm doing my best on the mobile while walking the streets. As always you are free to ignore my comments if you wish.

Finally an offer worth taking up. Thank you for that.

Time_to_Leave

GIN1138 said:

Ave_it said:

Nearly all the polls say 43% CON 32% LAB.

In 1997 when I was LAB all the polls said CON 31%. I was sure they would get more. But they got 31% - in retrospect it was obvious this would happen.

So will it be 43%-32% this time or will the MRP herald the start of the CORBYNISTA surge?

@Ave_It was once... Labour??????

Presumably he took Bootle for them?

timmo

alb1on said:

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

Which seat? The only ultra marginal (based on 2017) is Richmond Park and the LDs have diverted resource from that seat as it is already in the bag.

That sounds like Car and Wallington

Paristonda

Vanilla no longer shows new comments highlighted in yellow on the main page, just the total number of comments, and doesn't bring you back to the last comment you viewed if you click, so can't find your place easily when coming back to a thread. Is this just my settings having changed somehow or are others having same issue? Using it on a phone.

NorthCadboll

Apologies for not knowing how to replicate the tweets from John Rentoul below but I hate technology and dont know how to do such clever things. I must be one of the few people in the country who only uses my mobile phone for phone calls and text messages. I have absolutely no idea how to do most of the internet stuff on it so dont bother. In addition since I dont have mobile coverage at home it is pretty irrelevant as I tend only to go out once a week unless I have to.

Interesting projection though announced by John Rentoul. Boris would be delighted with 366 seats.

Brom

With a Tory majority creeping in again to 1.47 I wonder what seat range on tonight's MRP would see that market stay still. I'd imagine something around a 15-25 or less Tory majority would mean Labour still had hope of a hung parliament with 2 weeks to go.

Philip_Thompson

NorthCadboll said:

Just spotted this, has it been commented upon on here yet?

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
8m
Updated @BestForBritain MRP poll, 39k sample 15 Oct-24 Nov: Con 366 (majority 82), Lab 199 gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc826…

@JohnRentoul
This MRP poll, by Focaldata for @BestForBritain's tactical voting website, has come out before @YouGov's MRP at 10pm

(Snipped out some formatting/twitter data)
I'd be quite happy with 366. Fingers crossed Yougov tonight is similar.

nico67

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1199639844097531904?s=20

Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.

Ave_it

NorthCadboll said:

Apologies for not knowing how to replicate the tweets from John Rentoul below but I hate technology and dont know how to do such clever things. I must be one of the few people in the country who only uses my mobile phone for phone calls and text messages. I have absolutely no idea how to do most of the internet stuff on it so dont bother. In addition since I dont have mobile coverage at home it is pretty irrelevant as I tend only to go out once a week unless I have to.

Interesting projection though announced by John Rentoul. Boris would be delighted with 366 seats.

I would be ASTONISHED if we get 366 seats! There are CORBYNISTAS everywhere although not many now in Scotland so we could do ok there.

alb1on

timmo said:

alb1on said:

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

Which seat? The only ultra marginal (based on 2017) is Richmond Park and the LDs have diverted resource from that seat as it is already in the bag.

That sounds like Car and Wallington

But not ultra marginal on the usual definitions of under 1000 majority or requiring a <1% swing. Certainly marginal.

Ave_it

Time_to_Leave said:

GIN1138 said:

Ave_it said:

Nearly all the polls say 43% CON 32% LAB.

In 1997 when I was LAB all the polls said CON 31%. I was sure they would get more. But they got 31% - in retrospect it was obvious this would happen.

So will it be 43%-32% this time or will the MRP herald the start of the CORBYNISTA surge?

@Ave_It was once... Labour??????

Presumably he took Bootle for them?

Ave it was LAB but saw the light in 2002.

148grss

Why this will stick with some voters:
https://twitter.com/RopesToInfinity/status/1199672719169785856

kinabalu

nico67 said:

Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.

Much of the press is effectively an integral part of the Tory campaign. Not sure how much that is worth. Maybe not much.

Casino_Royale

Philip_Thompson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Just spotted this, has it been commented upon on here yet?

John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
8m
Updated @BestForBritain MRP poll, 39k sample 15 Oct-24 Nov: Con 366 (majority 82), Lab 199 gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc826…

@JohnRentoul
This MRP poll, by Focaldata for @BestForBritain's tactical voting website, has come out before @YouGov's MRP at 10pm

(Snipped out some formatting/twitter data)
I'd be quite happy with 366. Fingers crossed Yougov tonight is similar.

I’d treat anything by a campaigning organisation with a pinch of salt.

kinabalu

The MRP tonight -
Does it show 'results' in all of the individual seats?

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

FPT@ Casino Royale,

It's things like these Ipsos Mori ratings, and the ratings in the Lord Ashcroft poll that reassure me. I don't think this will be 1983 all over again, but I think it will be 1979.

The innards of the Yougov poll also show Johnson is far better rated than Corbyn, and the Conservatives have strong leads on most issues.

Corbyn has had more time to be “found out” and the Conservatives aren’t making the forced tactical and leadership errors they did last time, but otherwise the fundamental voting coalitions and demographics of this election are very similar to last time. The optics are a tad better for Boris because Parliament did look like it was obstructing Brexit.

I’m sticking to my thoughts of the Tories being sticky on the downside (won’t drop below 300 seats) but hard to progress on the upside and I expect a modest majority only.

kinabalu

Brom said:

With a Tory majority creeping in again to 1.47 I wonder what seat range on tonight's MRP would see that market stay still. I'd imagine something around a 15-25 or less Tory majority would mean Labour still had hope of a hung parliament with 2 weeks to go.

If tonight only shows a 20 majority, I would expect that 1.47 to drift big style. To keep it there needs something like 50.

Big_G_NorthWales

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

Casino_Royale

kinabalu said:

Brom said:

With a Tory majority creeping in again to 1.47 I wonder what seat range on tonight's MRP would see that market stay still. I'd imagine something around a 15-25 or less Tory majority would mean Labour still had hope of a hung parliament with 2 weeks to go.

If tonight only shows a 20 majority, I would expect that 1.47 to drift big style. To keep it there needs something like 50.

There will be some surprises in it that’s for sure.

Big_G_NorthWales

kinabalu said:

Brom said:

With a Tory majority creeping in again to 1.47 I wonder what seat range on tonight's MRP would see that market stay still. I'd imagine something around a 15-25 or less Tory majority would mean Labour still had hope of a hung parliament with 2 weeks to go.

If tonight only shows a 20 majority, I would expect that 1.47 to drift big style. To keep it there needs something like 50.

I am not expecting 50 - a majority of 20 would be ok

Casino_Royale

kinabalu said:

nico67 said:

Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.

Much of the press is effectively an integral part of the Tory campaign. Not sure how much that is worth. Maybe not much.

That reflects the demographics of those who read newspapers these days.

CorrectHorseBattery

Think MRP is going to show a reasonable Tory majority - but with two weeks to go it’s going to inspire hope on both sides to act.

Best for Britain seems to imply a Tory majority can be stopped with tactical voting.

Foxy

Philip_Thompson said:

Interesting that a higher percentage of mum's either will not vote or don't know.

If the numbers are weighted 466 male and 526 female then I make that 992 not 1000. Where have the other 8 gone? Unweighted the numbers don't sum up to 1000 either.

I wonder why they've weighted to 53% female rather than 50/50? Also why 69% of the unweighted sample were female and only 30% of the unweighted sample were male.

There are almost always more women than men polling as undecided, but they are as likely to vote. It is common across polling companies and elections.

Men are often wrong but never in doubt!

kinabalu

Casino_Royale said:

There will be some surprises in it that’s for sure.

I hope so!
Does it give the individual seats, do you know?

Essexit

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

I was surprised at Gardiner, who's always seemed like a nice enough chap, turning positively Trumpian when asked a question he didn't like.

CorrectHorseBattery

Think MRP is going to show a reasonable Tory majority - but with two weeks to go it’s going to inspire hope on both sides to act.

Best for Britain seems to imply a Tory majority can be stopped with tactical voting.

Artist

Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

nico67

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

Asking questions about anti Semitism ad nauseam when the NHS was the issue is just the media living in their bubble .

Do you seriously think the public are more worried about anti Semitism than the NHS .

kinabalu

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am not expecting 50 - a majority of 20 would be ok

I'm in the BIG win camp - bettingwise, that is, not political preference obviously.

NorthernPowerhouse

Artist said:

Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

Westmoreland has liberals and cons on identical figures.

glw

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tory response....

“Jeremy Corbyn is getting desperate and is out-and-out lying to the public about what these documents contain. He has always believed in conspiracy theories – which is why he has failed to crack down on the scourge of antisemitism in his party. This is the man that has caused huge offence by blaming an imaginary ‘Zionist lobby’ for society’s ills and now he has decided to smear UK officials too.

“People should not believe a word that he says – this stunt is simply a smokescreen for the fact that he has no plan for Brexit and that he has been forced to admit that he wants to increase taxes for millions of families.

“As we have consistently made clear: the NHS will not be on the table in any future trade deal and the price that the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table. This sort of conspiracy theory fuelled nonsense is not befitting of the leader of a major political party

Could this descend into a really dirty fight now?

It is broadly true that Corbyn, like many on the far-left, has a conspiracist mindset. You only have to look at Corbyn's response to incidents like Salisbury to see it.

I have to say that looking at social media over the last week or so there are a hell of a lot of nonsense stories from dubious sources doing the rounds. I will not be surprised if it turns out that the origin of some of these is from outside of the UK.

Brom

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Think MRP is going to show a reasonable Tory majority - but with two weeks to go it’s going to inspire hope on both sides to act.

Best for Britain seems to imply a Tory majority can be stopped with tactical voting.

You can't stop a majority of that size with tactical voting. Deliberate tactical voting will save/win a few seats and unintentional tactical voting will do the same. But there will be far more cases where seats are lost/not won due to tactical voting. It will only work where everyone makes the same decision and clearly in somewhere like Kensington that won't be the case.

IanB2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

Yet you are as, if not more, pitiful than the left of centre voters returning to Labour ‘despite Corbyn’.

FrancisUrquhart

Essexit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

I was surprised at Gardiner, who's always seemed like a nice enough chap, turning positively Trumpian when asked a question he didn't like.

Really...you clearly forgetting 2017 campaign. The first 2 weeks he was sent screaming about the Fake News MSM etc. It was exactly out of the Trump playbook.

Brom

kinabalu said:

Brom said:

With a Tory majority creeping in again to 1.47 I wonder what seat range on tonight's MRP would see that market stay still. I'd imagine something around a 15-25 or less Tory majority would mean Labour still had hope of a hung parliament with 2 weeks to go.

If tonight only shows a 20 majority, I would expect that 1.47 to drift big style. To keep it there needs something like 50.

50 would surely see the price shorten considerably? I can't see it being that big.

eek

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

Sky news has an audience of 70,000 at peak times - the audience for the BBC News front page by itself will be far higher than that.

glw

nico67 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1199639844097531904?s=20

Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.

It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.

Andrew

So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.

Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.

kinabalu

Brom said:

50 would surely see the price shorten considerably? I can't see it being that big.

That's the current expectation per the spreads. Maj 50/53.
I bought at 15 in SIZE weeks ago. Smug City
But not for the country, I hasten to add.

Stocky

Edinburgh West: just got a v small bet on Tories at 33/1. Looks way over-priced to me. Anyone with any insight on that constituency?

roserees64

Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.

Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.

Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.

Big_G_NorthWales

nico67 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

Asking questions about anti Semitism ad nauseam when the NHS was the issue is just the media living in their bubble .

Do you seriously think the public are more worried about anti Semitism than the NHS .

It is a picture the media are painting that is not good for Corbyn

Philip_Thompson

Artist said:

Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

How do you find individual seats?
I tried but could only see the tactical voting site and that only worked via postcode and not seat name.

Ave_it

Should LAB be disqualified in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport?

https://order-order.com/2019/11/27/plymouth-labour-officer-boasts-breaking-law/

Casino_Royale

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

There will be some surprises in it that’s for sure.

I hope so!
Does it give the individual seats, do you know?

Think so.

Also worth bearing in mind that whilst MRP is good it’s not exactly John Curtice’s exit poll so, as I think Pulpstar said, it’ll be more interesting to see where the votes are gathering and where they are not.

Big_G_NorthWales

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As posters know I am anti Corbyn more than anything but to be honest even I am amazed how much this mornings NHS announcement is turning into a car crash on the news media. The 2.00pm Sky news was just awful for Corbyn and labour with not only featuring Corbyn's refusal to apologise, but that no smoking gun is in these documents, and they keep playing Barry Gardiner's attack on Libby Wiener

Yet you are as, if not more, pitiful than the left of centre voters returning to Labour ‘despite Corbyn’.

I do not quite understand your comment but of course you are entitled to your view