Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305 Lab 245 SNP 50 LD 30 DUP 10 PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!
Bearing all that in mind, could we have an admittedly unlikey scenario where neither party can form a government - and then call yet another election?
There is always a government. If neither party can make up a majority then Johnson remains PM unless or until there's a No Confidence vote and if no alternative government can be found there'd be a general election 14 days later. Seems unlikely but yes it is possible.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Why the obsession with his sex life? It just screams "incel."
I agree, except that his record reinforces his reputation as a congenital liar (he has lied to his employers, leader, constituents, the wider electorate and, in this case, his wives).
.... (Coincidentally, I was quite horrified to discover the Jersey Royals I bought at the excessively expensive Erehwon were in fact not from Jersey.)
Well, quite. The EU protected origin regulations are one of the very few bits of bureaucracy which are an unmitigated, 100% Good Thing. All upside, and no downside. They've even had the side effect of dragging up quality in products which haven't yet got protection, as producers up their game in the hope of getting protection later on.
It's surprising that the US, which is generally keen on IPR ignore this bit of IPR....
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
To be honest, that’s the upside of Boris being a snake.
I’m hoping he gets a large majority so he can shamelessly ratfuck the ultra Spartan wing of the ERG.
I think at heart he’d be quite practical and moderate on our future relationship with the EU, which is exactly what we need.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
What you write isn't possible. The Lib Dems have no power to force out either parties leader let alone both.
If the LDs refuse to collaborate with either the Tories or Labour then their MPs will be simply irrelevant.
If we end up say:
Tory 305 Lab 245 SNP 50 LD 30 DUP 10 PC 3
Then the LDs could be kingmakers. Tory+LD = 335 or Lab+SNP+LD+PC = 328. If the LDs choose Tory then Johnson is PM and Corbyn probably goes. If the LDs choose Labour then Corbyn is PM and Johnson goes.
If the LDs refuse to choose a side and both Corbyn and Johnson refuse to resign then Johnson is PM. He would remain as Brown did unless or until someone else has a majority and Corbyn being so close to power wouldn't resign. Ironically that could trigger the only scenario where rather than both going, we could see neither of them go!
Bearing all that in mind, could we have an admittedly unlikey scenario where neither party can form a government - and then call yet another election?
There is always a government. If neither party can make up a majority then Johnson remains PM unless or until there's a No Confidence vote and if no alternative government can be found there'd be a general election 14 days later. Seems unlikely but yes it is possible.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
No, Remember Brown metaphorically barricading himself in No. 10 until Cameron and Clegg agreed a deal.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
To be honest, that’s the upside of Boris being a snake.
I’m hoping he gets a large majority so he can shamelessly ratfuck the ultra Spartan wing of the ERG.
I think at heart he’d be quite practical and moderate on our future relationship with the EU, which is exactly what we need.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
Nope. According to the precedent set by Brown he remains PM during And after an election until a replacement is appointed. That applies even if he comes second if nobody else has a majority.
It seems to me what Mr Urquhart is saying cannot really be true. Even if the tories got one less than May (313...? ) then that is 313 MPs who are of one mind on Brexit. Johnson's deal. They all signed up to it.
That is a far different proposition from the tories under May. Many of the refuseniks and the wobblers have gone. The parliamentary party will be quite different.
Cummings' message seems much clearer and more effective than Boris's.
Discredited pseudoscholar and liar: Vote for us, the other lot will cause a crisis over the EU and immigration and increase taxes while rigging the voting register. Me: So, they’ll basically do what you lot are doing?
It seems to me what Mr Urquhart is saying cannot really be true. Even if the tories got one less than May (313...? ) then that is 313 MPs who are of one mind on Brexit.
Maybe Cummings and the Tories are doing a version of Muhammad Ali's "rope a dope"? If that is the case expect a big tempo shift next week with both positive announcements and counter punches.
This period reminds me of the Likely Lads episode where Bob and Terry are trying to avoid finding out the score in the England game so they can watch it on TV later.
Then one of them sees a headline......England.....F.......
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Why the obsession with his sex life? It just screams "incel."
I agree, except that his record reinforces his reputation as a congenital liar (he has lied to his employers, leader, constituents, the wider electorate and, in this case, his wives).
Kind of makes it difficult to push the 'Labour lies' line, even when Labour are lying.
“Among politicians without talent Marxism will always be popular, since it enables them to blame society for the fact that nobody wants to hear what they have to say." With apologies to the ghost of Clive James.
BBC R4 6pm news takes Corbyn's claim that "NHS is for sale" seriously. And BBC "Reality Check" Chris Morris fails to debunk the scaremongering convincingly. This looks messy with the BBC failing the neutrality test by giving equal time to nonsense and fact.
Maybe Cummings and the Tories are doing a version of Muhammad Ali's "rope a dope"? If that is the case expect a big tempo shift next week with both positive announcements and counter punches.
To quote Sir Humphrey, that would be to mistake lethargy for strategy.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Why the obsession with his sex life? It just screams "incel."
I agree, except that his record reinforces his reputation as a congenital liar (he has lied to his employers, leader, constituents, the wider electorate and, in this case, his wives).
Kind of makes it difficult to push the 'Labour lies' line, even when Labour are lying.
Has he had more than one wife.??. that info seems to have passed me by.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Why the obsession with his sex life? It just screams "incel."
I agree, except that his record reinforces his reputation as a congenital liar (he has lied to his employers, leader, constituents, the wider electorate and, in this case, his wives).
Kind of makes it difficult to push the 'Labour lies' line, even when Labour are lying.
Has he had more than one wife.??. that info seems to have passed me by.
He’s had at least two. Marina Wheeler was his second, I think. Allegra Mostyn-Owen was the first.
My local authority (East Hampshire) is sending out its postals tomorrow, including mine.
So it could be that 20% of votes have been cast already by this time next week.
Barnet sent out their postal votes this week. Mine arrived, has been completed and posted today. Election over.
I'm holding mine in readiness. Last time I just wrote "None of the Above" on it. This time I feel I should try to be more creative.
Any suggestions?
How about writing a suitable adjective next to each candidate? So we could start with ‘Remainer’ for TBP. ‘Posho’ for the Socialists. ‘Traitor’ for the Tories... You can see how this would work. And it would troll them epically at the count.
So want do we know about the rest of the campaign? Well, we can assume Boris will try and use the debate on 6 Dec to once again hammer home his “get Brexit done” method. Labour will presumably hammer home the NHS points. The Heseltine thing today suggests the LibDems are focused back on nicking a few Tory seats. All seems a bit predictable, no?
For the record, before the YouGov MRP is published, I have updated my English constituency model to reflect two factors as well as the latest polling: firstly the effect of the Brexit Party standing in selective seats only and secondly to reverse a flaw in the model which tended to unwind PREVIOUS tactical voting. The changes now put the prospect of a Conservative majority on a knife-edge.
The Conservatives are starting from 297 English seats won last time (including Bercow).
As usual, I've applied shifts in VI by party/referendum group according to the 12-20 Nov YouGov (for example, that 52% of 2017 Con Remain voters will currently still vote Con). I've scaled up/down to apply the recent ICM results of 41% Con, 34% Lab, 13% LD, 4% BXP across GB (adjusted for England only) which would on its own give 354 Con seats in England.
However, the BXP are generating that 4% despite their contesting only 273 of the 633 GB seats, equivalent to over 9% in the seats they are standing in. So I've scaled up the BXP vote in the English seats they're contesting, and scaled down the Conservative lead over Labour by nearly as much in those seats. And I've done the opposite in the other Conservative-held seats, scaling up the Conservative lead over Labour.
What is striking is that the effect is not neutral - the net Conservative seat count drops to 21 to 333. The BXP standing still puts a lot of Labour held marginals out of reach for the Conservatives, whilst helping them keep only a handful more seats they already hold.
I've also corrected for the tendency of the model to unwind previous tactical voting thanks to the use of average shifts in 2017 voting patterns. For example, while YouGov's mega poll is telling us that 12% of LD 2017 voters nationally will end up voting Labour, it's implausible for the percentage in say Richmond upon Thames to be as high. (The consequence without adjustment would be that in Richmond there would be a swing from LD to Con even in a strong Remain seat, when nationally the swing is the other way.)
So building in some continued tactical voting into the model takes the Conservative seat count down further to 311, a net gain of 14. Assuming that the Conservatives gain as many seats in Wales as they lose in Scotland, that would just about give Johnson a majority on a 7% national poll lead.
In summary, Johnson needs a polling lead of about 7% to deliver a bare majority similar in scale to that which May would have got with a 3.5% lead (as opposed to the 2.4% lead she actually got in 2017.
I’m predicting 330 to 340 seats. If things continue we’re quickly headed for Hung Parliament territory
It's odd how a party can be about 13% ahead in the polls on average and so many people are still predicting a hung parliament. I'm not saying it won't happen though.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
Nope. According to the precedent set by Brown he remains PM during And after an election until a replacement is appointed. That applies even if he comes second if nobody else has a majority.
Sorry to be a pedant, but the precedent wasn’t set by Brown. Heath did the same.
I freely admit that I was one of those moaning about Brown squatting in Downing Street after the election, but I was totally wrong. It was the constitutionally proper thing to do.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
Nope. According to the precedent set by Brown he remains PM during And after an election until a replacement is appointed. That applies even if he comes second if nobody else has a majority.
Sorry to be a pedant, but the precedent wasn’t set by Brown. Heath did the same.
I freely admit that I was one of those moaning about Brown squatting in Downing Street after the election, but I was totally wrong. It was the constitutionally proper thing to do.
No, Brown set this particular precedent. Heath won the popular vote, so could claim a mandate that way. Brown (and Heath, for the matter of that) should have followed the Baldwin precedent of 1929, which is that a government that has lost the confidence of the country by coming a clear second should resign (even Baldwin won the popular vote, incidentally, but that was partly because the Tories fielded more candidates than Labour). That Brown did not was not his fault - he was given the wrong advice by O’Donnell, who did not understand either the constitutional niceties or the legal precedents. In the end, it was far more damaging to Labour than resigning at once would have been.
BBC R4 6pm news takes Corbyn's claim that "NHS is for sale" seriously. And BBC "Reality Check" Chris Morris fails to debunk the scaremongering convincingly. This looks messy with the BBC failing the neutrality test by giving equal time to nonsense and fact.
Well they did that during the Brexit campaign and nonsense won.
Tories averaging a 10 point lead 2 weeks away from an election, yet reading some of the comments, you'd think Labour were 10 points ahead. Even if there's a hung parliament, Corbyn will not have the numbers to form any sort of government. Unless anyone thinks they're going to pick up another 20 odd seats - a net GAIN - depsite behind 10 poins behind in the polls. This doom mongering from Tories is, frankly, ridiculous.
Come the 13th Dec, if parliament is practically identical to 2 months ago, that is an absolutely terrible result (not just for Tories). It will mean gridlock for years to come. No business wants that.
No it doesn't. The LDs won't collaborate with any grouping led by Corbyn, and won't help the fat sexpest into office. Since the perv treats poliltiocal "allies" the way he treats his women, no other grouping (except the TBP, who are unlikely to get any seats at all) will work with him and there's no route to power for the Tories except by firing the groper.
So, unless there's a hung parliament in which the LDs have been smashed, Dec 13 will start with the two major parties chucking out the self-indulgent oafs who've destroyed them and those remaining forming a civilised government of serious politicians.
Why the obsession with his sex life? It just screams "incel."
I agree, except that his record reinforces his reputation as a congenital liar (he has lied to his employers, leader, constituents, the wider electorate and, in this case, his wives).
Kind of makes it difficult to push the 'Labour lies' line, even when Labour are lying.
Has he had more than one wife.??. that info seems to have passed me by.
He’s had at least two. Marina Wheeler was his second, I think. Allegra Mostyn-Owen was the first.
BBC R4 6pm news takes Corbyn's claim that "NHS is for sale" seriously. And BBC "Reality Check" Chris Morris fails to debunk the scaremongering convincingly. This looks messy with the BBC failing the neutrality test by giving equal time to nonsense and fact.
Well they did that during the Brexit campaign and nonsense won.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
Nope. According to the precedent set by Brown he remains PM during And after an election until a replacement is appointed. That applies even if he comes second if nobody else has a majority.
Sorry to be a pedant, but the precedent wasn’t set by Brown. Heath did the same.
I freely admit that I was one of those moaning about Brown squatting in Downing Street after the election, but I was totally wrong. It was the constitutionally proper thing to do.
Still seems a bit rum though - once parliament is dissolved the whole point it that MPs become ordinary members of the public again, with no more right to be PM than anyone else. So effing what if he or she happened to have had the role in an earlier and unrelated situation.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
Nope. According to the precedent set by Brown he remains PM during And after an election until a replacement is appointed. That applies even if he comes second if nobody else has a majority.
Sorry to be a pedant, but the precedent wasn’t set by Brown. Heath did the same.
I freely admit that I was one of those moaning about Brown squatting in Downing Street after the election, but I was totally wrong. It was the constitutionally proper thing to do.
Still seems a bit run though - once parliament is dissolved the whole point it that MPs become ordinary members of the public again, with no more right to be PM than anyone else. So effing what if he or she happened to have the role in an earlier and unrelated situation.
There is no law saying any minister has to be an MP.
I’m predicting 330 to 340 seats. If things continue we’re quickly headed for Hung Parliament territory
It's odd how a party can be about 13% ahead in the polls on average and so many people are still predicting a hung parliament. I'm not saying it won't happen though.
If we’re to take Owen Jones - not always reliable - at his word and he’s saying if this week was repeated next week would lead to a Hung Parliament, we can presumably predict the change in share of the vote and figure out where the Tories are now.
If current YouGov polling is accurate, the Tories are around 10 points ahead. That would tally up with a large-ish majority - but if Labour has gained around 3-5 points this week, that means next week would the Tories around 5-7 points ahead.
Therefore I think plausibly it’s accurate to say that a Hung Parliament is likely if the momentum continues next week. Really the MRP poll tallies up with existing polling.
Though if a 5 point lead is a Hung Parliament, that suggests like I said earlier, their current majority is based on knife edge seats, hence why plausibly Labour can force a Hung Parliament on a lower share of the vote than last time.
Maybe Cummings and the Tories are doing a version of Muhammad Ali's "rope a dope"? If that is the case expect a big tempo shift next week with both positive announcements and counter punches.
To quote Sir Humphrey, that would be to mistake lethargy for strategy.
You jest, but there is actually something to be said for allowing the polls to narrow a bit.
If it looks like the Tories are home and dry with a stonking majority, and that narrative continues throughout the campaign, it reduces the incentive for Con voters to get out and vote.
If on the other hand it looks narrow every Con voter in the land will be out whatever the weather to ensure that Corbyn doesn't get in. Meanwhile wavering voters in constituencies like Finchley and Golders Green are incentivised to vote Conservative in case a vote for the Lib Dems lets Corbyn in.
Both the spread-betting firms have Tory seats edging up today by 2-3 seats, yet again mainly at the expense of the LibDems ... not sure exactly why other than with the simple passage of time. Current mid-spreads are:
Party ................ Spreadex ............ Sporting Con ....................... 351 ................... 348 Lab ........................ 208 ................... 208 LibDem ................... 24 ..................... 24 Con Maj. ................. 52 ..................... 46 Incidentally, Spreadex have Brexit at a mid-spread of 3.25 seats , I'd like to know where even 1 seat is coming from, let alone 3.25 seats. Sporting are being somewhat more realistic with a mid-spread of 2.0 seats.
Everyone is desperate for this election to get interesting. It isn't going to. The MRP will show a Tory maj of 30 to 60. And that is where it will end up on election day.
I’m predicting 330 to 340 seats. If things continue we’re quickly headed for Hung Parliament territory
It's odd how a party can be about 13% ahead in the polls on average and so many people are still predicting a hung parliament. I'm not saying it won't happen though.
If we’re to take Owen Jones - not always reliable - at his word and he’s saying if this week was repeated next week would lead to a Hung Parliament, we can presumably predict the change in share of the vote and figure out where the Tories are now.
If current YouGov polling is accurate, the Tories are around 10 points ahead. That would tally up with a large-ish majority - but if Labour has gained around 3-5 points this week, that means next week would the Tories around 5-7 points ahead.
Therefore I think plausibly it’s accurate to say that a Hung Parliament is likely if the momentum continues next week. Really the MRP poll tallies up with existing polling.
Though if a 5 point lead is a Hung Parliament, that suggests like I said earlier, their current majority is based on knife edge seats, hence why plausibly Labour can force a Hung Parliament on a lower share of the vote than last time.
Changing from a ten point to a five point lead does not indicate things are on a knife edge. That, or you have some bloody thick knives.
This may be your last chance to vote in the UK. Enjoy!
The Conservatives plan to extend the vote for overseas citizens indefinitely, and Labour plan to extend the franchise to the whole planet; so either way that's unlikely.
This may be your last chance to vote in the UK. Enjoy!
The Conservatives plan to extend the vote for overseas citizens indefinitely, and Labour plan to extend the franchise to the whole planet; so either way that's unlikely.
I’m predicting 330 to 340 seats. If things continue we’re quickly headed for Hung Parliament territory
It's odd how a party can be about 13% ahead in the polls on average and so many people are still predicting a hung parliament. I'm not saying it won't happen though.
If we’re to take Owen Jones - not always reliable - at his word and he’s saying if this week was repeated next week would lead to a Hung Parliament, we can presumably predict the change in share of the vote and figure out where the Tories are now.
If current YouGov polling is accurate, the Tories are around 10 points ahead. That would tally up with a large-ish majority - but if Labour has gained around 3-5 points this week, that means next week would the Tories around 5-7 points ahead.
Therefore I think plausibly it’s accurate to say that a Hung Parliament is likely if the momentum continues next week. Really the MRP poll tallies up with existing polling.
Though if a 5 point lead is a Hung Parliament, that suggests like I said earlier, their current majority is based on knife edge seats, hence why plausibly Labour can force a Hung Parliament on a lower share of the vote than last time.
The only people, probably the majority of political operators, predicting a hung parliament are labour campaigners trying to convince anti tories to vote labour and tories trying to scare anti labour people to vote Tory to save them from the Armageddon that corbyn will bring down on them. The reality is that they are both as bad as each other so vote how you believe you can’t game a result as your individual vote is powerless in our electoral system that fails to elect a government with genuine majority support.
Both the spread-betting firms have Tory seats edging up today by 2-3 seats, yet again mainly at the expense of the LibDems ... not sure exactly why other than with the simple passage of time. Current mid-spreads are:
Party ................ Spreadex ............ Sporting Con ....................... 351 ................... 348 Lab ........................ 208 ................... 208 LibDem ................... 24 ..................... 24 Con Maj. ................. 52 ..................... 46 Incidentally, Spreadex have Brexit at a mid-spread of 3.25 seats , I'd like to know where even 1 seat is coming from, let alone 3.25 seats. Sporting are being somewhat more realistic with a mid-spread of 2.0 seats.
I think the LD seats number is finally not a sell. (The median result is below, but you've got tail risk if you sell here.)
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
For the record, before the YouGov MRP is published, I have updated my English constituency model to reflect two factors as well as the latest polling: firstly the effect of the Brexit Party standing in selective seats only and secondly to reverse a flaw in the model which tended to unwind PREVIOUS tactical voting. The changes now put the prospect of a Conservative majority on a knife-edge.
The Conservatives are starting from 297 English seats won last time (including Bercow).
As usual, I've applied shifts in VI by party/referendum group according to the 12-20 Nov YouGov (for example, that 52% of 2017 Con Remain voters will currently still vote Con). I've scaled up/down to apply the recent ICM results of 41% Con, 34% Lab, 13% LD, 4% BXP across GB (adjusted for England only) which would on its own give 354 Con seats in England.
However, the BXP are generating that 4% despite their contesting only 273 of the 633 GB seats, equivalent to over 9% in the seats they are standing in. So I've scaled up the BXP vote in the English seats they're contesting, and scaled down the Conservative lead over Labour by nearly as much in those seats. And I've done the opposite in the other Conservative-held seats, scaling up the Conservative lead over Labour.
What is striking is that the effect is not neutral - the net Conservative seat count drops to 21 to 333. The BXP standing still puts a lot of Labour held marginals out of reach for the Conservatives, whilst helping them keep only a handful more seats they already hold.
I've also corrected for the tendency of the model to unwind previous tactical voting thanks to the use of average shifts in 2017 voting patterns. For example, while YouGov's mega poll is telling us that 12% of LD 2017 voters nationally will end up voting Labour, it's implausible for the percentage in say Richmond upon Thames to be as high. (The consequence without adjustment would be that in Richmond there would be a swing from LD to Con even in a strong Remain seat, when nationally the swing is the other way.)
So building in some continued tactical voting into the model takes the Conservative seat count down further to 311, a net gain of 14. Assuming that the Conservatives gain as many seats in Wales as they lose in Scotland, that would just about give Johnson a majority on a 7% national poll lead.
In summary, Johnson needs a polling lead of about 7% to deliver a bare majority similar in scale to that which May would have got with a 3.5% lead (as opposed to the 2.4% lead she actually got in 2017.
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Excellent news!
Clearest evidence yet of traditional Labour supporting people turning their backs on the Marxist racists then?
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Excellent news!
So you’re happy if the situation was reversed and Johnson suffered an AN interview and then Corbyn managed to avoid it .
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Labour say BBC disgraceful in reporting Labour story on Tories as if it were a pack of lies. Interestingly, Tories say BBC disgraceful in reporting pack of lies by Corbyn as if they were facts. Neutral say - sounds as though they got it right.
I didn't think Boris would get first dibs just because he held the role previously. Now parliament has been dissolved isn't the slate wiped clean?
Nope. According to the precedent set by Brown he remains PM during And after an election until a replacement is appointed. That applies even if he comes second if nobody else has a majority.
Sorry to be a pedant, but the precedent wasn’t set by Brown. Heath did the same.
I freely admit that I was one of those moaning about Brown squatting in Downing Street after the election, but I was totally wrong. It was the constitutionally proper thing to do.
Still seems a bit rum though - once parliament is dissolved the whole point it that MPs become ordinary members of the public again, with no more right to be PM than anyone else. So effing what if he or she happened to have had the role in an earlier and unrelated situation.
Ministers remain ministers until the government falls even if they are no longer MPs this is one of the reasons that putting corbyn into no 10 was unpopular because from prorogue to election result he would be pm with no scrutiny but all the executive levers of power. One of Swinsons best decisions. Do you really want him with almost unfettered executive power for five weeks.
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Compare the ITV coverage on the NHS to the BBCs utterly disgraceful attempts to spin the story to Johnson’s advantage . Coupled with the AN fiasco and it’s pretty clear the BBC is now just the media wing of no 10.
Excellent news!
So you’re happy if the situation was reversed and Johnson suffered an AN interview and then Corbyn managed to avoid it .
That would be intolerable. We’d probably have to cancel the BBC’s charter.
I’m predicting 330 to 340 seats. If things continue we’re quickly headed for Hung Parliament territory
It's odd how a party can be about 13% ahead in the polls on average and so many people are still predicting a hung parliament. I'm not saying it won't happen though.
If we’re to take Owen Jones - not always reliable - at his word and he’s saying if this week was repeated next week would lead to a Hung Parliament, we can presumably predict the change in share of the vote and figure out where the Tories are now.
If current YouGov polling is accurate, the Tories are around 10 points ahead. That would tally up with a large-ish majority - but if Labour has gained around 3-5 points this week, that means next week would the Tories around 5-7 points ahead.
Therefore I think plausibly it’s accurate to say that a Hung Parliament is likely if the momentum continues next week. Really the MRP poll tallies up with existing polling.
Though if a 5 point lead is a Hung Parliament, that suggests like I said earlier, their current majority is based on knife edge seats, hence why plausibly Labour can force a Hung Parliament on a lower share of the vote than last time.
The only people, probably the majority of political operators, predicting a hung parliament are labour campaigners trying to convince anti tories to vote labour and tories trying to scare anti labour people to vote Tory to save them from the Armageddon that corbyn will bring down on them. The reality is that they are both as bad as each other so vote how you believe you can’t game a result as your individual vote is powerless in our electoral system that fails to elect a government with genuine majority support.
It is true that I do want a Hung Parliament but at the same time, I also think this is what will happen based entirely on my theory that Johnson’s strategy is not going to work.
Comments
I’m hoping he gets a large majority so he can shamelessly ratfuck the ultra Spartan wing of the ERG.
I think at heart he’d be quite practical and moderate on our future relationship with the EU, which is exactly what we need.
Summary: Tell your family and friends face-to-face: if Boris doesn’t get a majority, then Corbyn and Sturgeon will control the government, their official policy is to give the vote to millions of foreign citizens to cheat their second referendum, we’ll all get screwed on taxes, Parliament will drag the whole country into crisis, and immigration will return to being a central issue in politics instead of being marginalised by Brexit…
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/11/27/on-the-referendum-34-batsignal-dont-let-corbyn-sturgeon-cheat-a-second-referendum-with-millions-of-foreign-votes/
That is a far different proposition from the tories under May. Many of the refuseniks and the wobblers have gone. The parliamentary party will be quite different.
I'm not saying better, but certainly different.
Me: So, they’ll basically do what you lot are doing?
We shall see what MRP says.
That would make a great slogan.
btw
don't panic Mr Mannering
Then one of them sees a headline......England.....F.......
With apologies to the ghost of Clive James.
This looks messy with the BBC failing the neutrality test by giving equal time to nonsense and fact.
Any suggestions?
So we could start with ‘Remainer’ for TBP. ‘Posho’ for the Socialists. ‘Traitor’ for the Tories...
You can see how this would work. And it would troll them epically at the count.
Well, we can assume Boris will try and use the debate on 6 Dec to once again hammer home his “get Brexit done” method.
Labour will presumably hammer home the NHS points.
The Heseltine thing today suggests the LibDems are focused back on nicking a few Tory seats.
All seems a bit predictable, no?
The Conservatives are starting from 297 English seats won last time (including Bercow).
As usual, I've applied shifts in VI by party/referendum group according to the 12-20 Nov YouGov (for example, that 52% of 2017 Con Remain voters will currently still vote Con). I've scaled up/down to apply the recent ICM results of 41% Con, 34% Lab, 13% LD, 4% BXP across GB (adjusted for England only) which would on its own give 354 Con seats in England.
However, the BXP are generating that 4% despite their contesting only 273 of the 633 GB seats, equivalent to over 9% in the seats they are standing in. So I've scaled up the BXP vote in the English seats they're contesting, and scaled down the Conservative lead over Labour by nearly as much in those seats. And I've done the opposite in the other Conservative-held seats, scaling up the Conservative lead over Labour.
What is striking is that the effect is not neutral - the net Conservative seat count drops to 21 to 333. The BXP standing still puts a lot of Labour held marginals out of reach for the Conservatives, whilst helping them keep only a handful more seats they already hold.
I've also corrected for the tendency of the model to unwind previous tactical voting thanks to the use of average shifts in 2017 voting patterns. For example, while YouGov's mega poll is telling us that 12% of LD 2017 voters nationally will end up voting Labour, it's implausible for the percentage in say Richmond upon Thames to be as high. (The consequence without adjustment would be that in Richmond there would be a swing from LD to Con even in a strong Remain seat, when nationally the swing is the other way.)
So building in some continued tactical voting into the model takes the Conservative seat count down further to 311, a net gain of 14. Assuming that the Conservatives gain as many seats in Wales as they lose in Scotland, that would just about give Johnson a majority on a 7% national poll lead.
In summary, Johnson needs a polling lead of about 7% to deliver a bare majority similar in scale to that which May would have got with a 3.5% lead (as opposed to the 2.4% lead she actually got in 2017.
I freely admit that I was one of those moaning about Brown squatting in Downing Street after the election, but I was totally wrong. It was the constitutionally proper thing to do.
Now we have a bit of a bounceback, as MRP's lack of track record gets picked up.
Brown (and Heath, for the matter of that) should have followed the Baldwin precedent of 1929, which is that a government that has lost the confidence of the country by coming a clear second should resign (even Baldwin won the popular vote, incidentally, but that was partly because the Tories fielded more candidates than Labour).
That Brown did not was not his fault - he was given the wrong advice by O’Donnell, who did not understand either the constitutional niceties or the legal precedents. In the end, it was far more damaging to Labour than resigning at once would have been.
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1199746091673145344?s=21
Ah, my coat...
And, it’s also rather bad form to leak it before the embargo even if it is true.
Number 4....
If current YouGov polling is accurate, the Tories are around 10 points ahead. That would tally up with a large-ish majority - but if Labour has gained around 3-5 points this week, that means next week would the Tories around 5-7 points ahead.
Therefore I think plausibly it’s accurate to say that a Hung Parliament is likely if the momentum continues next week. Really the MRP poll tallies up with existing polling.
Though if a 5 point lead is a Hung Parliament, that suggests like I said earlier, their current majority is based on knife edge seats, hence why plausibly Labour can force a Hung Parliament on a lower share of the vote than last time.
If it looks like the Tories are home and dry with a stonking majority, and that narrative continues throughout the campaign, it reduces the incentive for Con voters to get out and vote.
If on the other hand it looks narrow every Con voter in the land will be out whatever the weather to ensure that Corbyn doesn't get in. Meanwhile wavering voters in constituencies like Finchley and Golders Green are incentivised to vote Conservative in case a vote for the Lib Dems lets Corbyn in.
Party ................ Spreadex ............ Sporting
Con ....................... 351 ................... 348
Lab ........................ 208 ................... 208
LibDem ................... 24 ..................... 24
Con Maj. ................. 52 ..................... 46
Incidentally, Spreadex have Brexit at a mid-spread of 3.25 seats , I'd like to know where even 1 seat is coming from, let alone 3.25 seats. Sporting are being somewhat more realistic with a mid-spread of 2.0 seats.
Trente percenter!
Ich nichten lichten
As in 'peter you've lost the news!'
Interestingly, Tories say BBC disgraceful in reporting pack of lies by Corbyn as if they were facts.
Neutral say - sounds as though they got it right.
Ministers remain ministers until the government falls even if they are no longer MPs this is one of the reasons that putting corbyn into no 10 was unpopular because from prorogue to election result he would be pm with no scrutiny but all the executive levers of power. One of Swinsons best decisions. Do you really want him with almost unfettered executive power for five weeks.